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John Keells Holdings (JKH) 1Q19 Results Update

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John Keells Holdings (JKH) 1Q19 Results Update John Keells Holdings JKH - Rs.136.1 Yasas Wijethunga Key Highlights [email protected] 1Q19 Results Update +94 77 053 2059 ❑ 1Q19 NP of Rs.2,361mn (-22% YoY), below our expectations, amid decline in earnings in Leisure, ‘Others’, Consumer Foods and Retail Sectors ❑ JKH’s group NP forecast revised down by -7% to Rs.15,479mn for FY19E (-9% YoY on a recurring basis) and by -6% to Rs.16,627mn for FY20E (+7% YoY), amid continued pressure on earnings expected from Leisure, Consumer Foods and Retail sectors. NP expected to rebound in FY21E to Rs.22,371mn (+35% YoY) amid the profit recognition of Cinnamon Life apartment projects. Subsequently, NP forecast 01 August 2018 at Rs.22,600mn in FY22E (+1% YoY) Sri Lanka ❑ The JKH share underperformed the broader market during last 12 and three Diversified Holdings months declining -21% and -17% respectively (vs. ASI’s decreases of -7% and -6% respectively) – the share was removed from MSCI Frontier Markets 100 Index in Jun 2018 as the company failed to meet the minimum liquidity requirement ❑ The JKH share trades at forward PER multiples of 12.2X for FY19E, 11.4X for FY20E, 8.4X for both FY21E and FY22E ❑ Based on our estimated break up Sum of The Parts (SOTP) valuation of Rs.167, the JKH share is currently trading at a 23% discount ❑ Despite the decrease in earnings, we believe that the extent of the recent share price decline seems unwarranted. Whilst, near term earnings weakness may remain due to expansion and construction related expenses in key sectors, we believe current share price provide a decent entry point to value oriented investors. JKH may also continue to be favored by medium to long term investors, amid its unrivalled share liquidity, and potential for upside in core growth oriented sectors over the long term Key Trading Information Relative Share Price Movement (%$) Market Capitalization (US$ mn) 1,403.3 JKH ASI Shares in Issue (mn) 1,387.5 108 Estimated Free Float (%) 97.5 100 3M Average Daily Volume 980,851 92 3M Avg Daily Turnover (US$) 929,758 84 12M High / Low (Rs) 164.3 / 137.8 76 12M / 3M Price Change (%) -20.9 / -17.3 1-Aug-17 30-Jan-18 31-Jul-18 Valuation Ratios Financials - Year to 31 March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E Net Revenue (Rs mn) 106,273 121,215 140,477 155,649 224,725 229,321 Net Profit (Rs mn) 15,792 17,084 15,479 16,627 22,371 22,600 Earnings per Share (Rs) 11.5 12.3 11.2 12.0 16.1 16.3 Earnings per Share Growth (%) 13.2 7.1 -9.4 7.4 34.5 1.0 Price / Earnings Ratio (X) 12.1 13.0 12.2 11.4 8.4 8.4 Price / Earnings Growth (X) 0.9 1.8 N/A 1.5 0.2 8.2 Gross Dividend per Share (Rs) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 8.0 8.0 Gross Dividend Yield (%) 4.3 3.8 4.4 4.4 5.9 5.9 Net Book Value per Share (Rs) 128.7 144.1 149.2 155.2 163.4 171.6 Price / Book Value (X) 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Return on Equity (%) 9.5 9.0 7.6 7.9 10.1 9.7 Market Price per Share (Rs) 139.0 160.0 136.1 136.1 136.1 136.1 Note: Valuations are based on recurring EPS, Adj. for Capital Issues (if any); Historic Ratios are based on Y/E MPS *Includes a special dividend of Rs.3.1 CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange John Keells Holdings The Business Most liquid stock on John Keells Holdings (JKH) is Sri Lanka’s largest listed conglomerate, with a significant the CSE presence in Leisure, Consumer Foods, Retail, Transportation, Property and Financial Services sectors. The group is also in the process of developing an Integrated Resort, “Cinnamon Life” at an investment of ~US$820mn, slated for completion in 2020. Given its lack of a controlling shareholder and ~98% free float, JKH is the local market’s most liquid share, contributing ~15% of total market turnover in 2018YTD During 1Q19, JKH restructured the reporting sectors within the group. Accordingly, the Consumer Foods & Retail divided into two sectors as ‘Consumer Foods’ and ‘Retail’. The Office Automation business, which was under the Information Technology (IT) sector was added to the Retail sector, whilst the remaining businesses in IT sector were moved to the ‘Others’ sector Recent Financial Performance 1Q19 NP -22% YoY JKH reported a recurring Net Profit (NP) of Rs.2,361mn for 1Q19 (-22% YoY), below amid weak our expectations, amid decline in earnings in Leisure, ‘Others’, Consumer Foods and performance in key Retail Sectors. Overall decline was partly offset by a stronger contribution from the sectors Financial Services business 1Q19 earnings adjusted for a Rs.202mn impact from impairment loss on assets arising from the closure of “Cinnamon Hakuraa Huraa Maldives”. Meanwhile, 1Q18 earnings adjusted for accelerated depreciation of Rs.203mn relating to closure of “Bentota Beach by Cinnamon” (BBH) Key Figures & Ratios (Rs mn) 1Q18 1Q19 % YoY FY17 FY18 % YoY Net Revenue (Rs mn) 26,822 30,163 12.5 106,273 121,215 14.1 Gross Profit (Rs mn) 6,706 5,591 -16.6 31,115 29,283 -5.9 Net Finance Income (Rs mn) 3,325 2,321 -30.2 9,597 10,747 12.0 Profit Before Tax (Rs mn) 4,088 2,909 -28.8 22,888 27,634 20.7 Reported Net Profit (Rs mn) 2,833 2,186 -22.8 16,275 21,021 29.2 Recurring Net Profit (Rs mn) 3,009 2,361 -21.5 15,792 17,084 8.2 Earnings per Share (Rs) 2.2 1.7 -21.5 11.5 12.3 7.1 Net Cash Position (Rs mn) 60,818 38,619 -36.5 61,528 45,547 -26.0 Net Cash Per Share (Rs) 43.8 27.8 -36.5 44.3 32.8 -26.0 Capex (Rs mn) 1,354 2,594 91.6 4,332 18,922 >+100.0 Note: Valuations and ratios on a recurring basis; Adjusted for capital issues (if any) Source: Company Interims NP adjusted for non recurring losses amounting to –Rs.203mn in 1Q19 and –Rs.202mn in 1Q18 Sectoral Analysis 1Q18 1Q19 %YoY FY17 FY18 %YoY Composition % 1Q18 1Q19 Net Revenue 27,292 30,929 13.3 106,273 121,215 14.1 100.0 100.0 Transportation 3,665 5,610 53.1 11,110 17,169 54.5 13.4 18.1 Leisure 4,899 4,385 -10.5 25,874 25,040 -3.2 18.0 14.2 Consumer Foods 3,859 3,702 -4.1 N/A N/A N/A 14.1 12.0 Retail 10,889 13,118 20.5 N/A N/A N/A 39.9 42.4 Financial Services 2,244 2,523 12.4 8,296 10,056 21.2 8.2 8.2 Property 224 227 1.3 1,121 1,231 9.8 0.8 0.7 Others 882 880 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A 5.5 4.4 Profit After Tax 3,219 2,518 -21.8 17,633 18,941 8.3 100.0 100.0 Transportation 773 826 6.8 2,979 3,084 3.5 24.0 32.8 Leisure 309 -74 >-100.0 5,008 3,471 -30.7 9.6 -3.0 Consumer Foods 446 231 -48.1 N/A N/A N/A 13.9 9.2 Retail 340 170 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A 10.6 6.8 Financial Services 235 550 >+100.0 2,042 5,187 >+100.0 7.3 21.8 Property 49 -6 >-100.0 333 438 31.6 1.5 -0.2 .Others 1,065 729 -31.6 N/A N/A N/A 33.1 30.0 PAT adjusted for non recurring items as follows Source: Company Interims Non recurring losses amounting to -Rs.202mn in 1Q19 and -Rs.203mn in 1Q18 in Leisure sector Non recurring adjustments totaled Rs.3,381mn in FY18 and Rs.1,374mn in FY17 Note: Comparative data not available for Consumer Foods, Retail and ‘Others’ sectors for FY17 and FY18 A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY John Keells Holdings Transportation Sector Transportation Sector : PAT (Rs mn) 1Q19 PAT of Rs.826mn (+7% YoY, 33% of group PAT); broadly in line with our expectations. Growth driven by increased earnings from 42% owned associate, 1,200 South Asia Gateway Terminal (SAGT) and fully owned oil bunkering subsidiary, Lanka Marine Services (LMS) 900 ❑ SAGT earnings were driven by the +25% YoY growth in, whilst overall volume growth in the Colombo port was recorded at +15% YoY during the quarter 600 ▪ Accordingly, SAGT’s market share is estimated to have increased to ~30% in 1Q19 (vs. ~28% in 1Q18) 300 ▪ Utilisation levels at overall Colombo port is expected to be over 75%, indicating a 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 need for further capacity additions; SAGT estimated to be running at a capacity utilization of ~80% Colombo Port Volumes (TEUs mn) & ❑ According to JKH interims, LMS witnessed an increase in profitability due to a SAGT Mkt Share (%) growth in volumes (+20% YoY) and improved margins. LMS commissioned “MT Others Amelia” in 1Q19 after commissioning “MT Mahaweli” in 2Q18, further enhancing SAGT LMS’s overall storage capacity.
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