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John Keells Holdings John Keells Holdings JKH - Rs.157.0 Yasas Wijethunga Key Highlights Email : [email protected] Phone : +94 77 0532059 4Q18 Results Update . 4Q18 recurring net profit of Rs.5,946mn for 4Q18 (+32% YoY), above our expectations, driven by increased earnings from the Insurance business, due to a transfer of insurance contract liabilities . JKH’s group NP forecast broadly maintained at Rs.16,676mn for FY19E (-2% YoY on a recurring basis) and forecast a NP of Rs.17,641mn for FY20E (+6% YoY) . The JKH share underperformed the broader market during last 12 months and last three months declining -7% and -2% respectively (vs. ASI’s decrease of -3% and -1%) . The JKH share trades at forward PER multiples of 13.1x for FY19E and 12.4X for FY20E . Based on our estimated break up Sum of The Parts (SOTP) valuation of Rs.164, the JKH share is currently trading at a 5% discount . Whilst further significant downside is limited, amid the recent declines and share coupled with the share trading at a slight discount we do not anticipate material share price gains with continuous 28 May 2018 moderate earnings growth expected in the near term. However, JKH may continue to be favored by medium to long term investors, amid its unrivalled share liquidity, being the only company Sri Lanka with over US$1mn average daily turnover on the CSE and potential for upside in its core sectors over the long term Diversified Holdings Key Trading Information Relative Share Price Movement (%) Shares in Issue (mn) 1,387.5 110 Market Cap (US$ mn) 1,378.7 ASPI Estimated Free Float (%) 97.5 100 3M Avg Daily Volume 637,724 3M Avg Daily Turnover (US$) 650,751 90 12M High / Low (Rs) 164.9 / 137.8 JKH 3M / 12M Price Change (%) -2.2 / -6.6 80 26-May-17 24-Nov-17 25-May-18 JKH: Valuation Ratios Financials - Year to 31 March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Revenue (Rs mn) 93,710 106,273 121,215 141,041 154,412 Net Profit (Rs mn) 13,807 15,792 17,084 16,676 17,641 Earnings per Share (Rs) 10.2 11.5 12.3 12.0 12.7 Earnings per Share Growth (%) 0.8 13.2 7.1 -2.4 5.8 Price / Earnings Ratio (X) 12.8 12.1 13.0 13.1 12.4 Price / Earnings Growth (X) 16.0 0.9 1.8 N/A 2.1 Gross Dividend per Share (Rs) 6.1* 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Gross Dividend Yield (%) 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.8 3.8 Net Book Value per Share (Rs) 114.0 128.7 144.1 150.1 156.8 Price / Book Value (X) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Return on Equity (%) 9.4 9.5 9.0 8.2 8.3 Market Price per Share (Rs) 130.4 139.0 160.0 157.0 157.0 Note: Valuations are based on recurring EPS, Adj. for Capital Issues (if any); Historic Ratios are based on Y/E MPS Source: CT CLSA *Includes a special dividend of Rs.3.1 CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange John Keells Holdings The Business Most liquid stock on the John Keells Holdings (JKH), Sri Lanka’s largest listed company, accounting for ~9% of total CSE accounting for market capitalisation, is a leading conglomerate with a significant presence in Leisure, ~21% of market Transportation, Property, Financial Services, Consumer Foods and Retail (CF&R) and Information turnover in 2017 Technology. The group is also in the process of developing an Integrated Resort, “Cinnamon Life” at an investment of ~US$820mn, slated for completion in 2019. Given its lack of a controlling shareholder and ~98% free float, JKH is the local market’s most liquid share, contributing ~21% of total market turnover in 2017 Recent Financial Performance 4Q18 NP +32% YoY amid JKH reported a recurring Net Profit (NP) of Rs.5,946mn for 4Q18 (+32% YoY), above our change in insurance expectations, driven by the increased earnings from the Insurance business. Meanwhile, key Leisure liabilities and CF&R sectors recorded decreased earnings for the quarter. Consequently, FY18 recurring NP increased +8% YoY to Rs.17,084mn 4Q18 reported earnings adjusted for a transfer of one - off surplus of Rs.3,382mn to shareholders funds in the insurance business. The surplus was previously generated due to a change in policy liability valuation and has held as part of the Restricted Regulatory Reserve. Meanwhile, the change in insurance contract liabilities of Rs.1,177mn (vs. a negative change of –Rs.1,326mn in 4Q17) has been considered recurring Earnings further adjusted for change in fair value of investment properties of Rs.896mn in 4Q18 and Rs.474mn 4Q17 Key Figures & Ratios 4Q17 4Q18 % YoY FY17 FY18 % YoY Net Revenue (Rs mn) 29,848 33,553 12.4 106,273 121,215 14.1 Gross Profit (Rs mn) 8,425 8,567 1.7 31,115 29,283 -5.9 Net Finance Income (Rs mn) 2,618 2,552 -2.5 9,597 10,747 12.0 Profit Before Tax (Rs mn) 7,408 12,767 72.3 22,888 27,634 20.7 Reported Net Profit (Rs mn) 4,986 9,966 99.9 16,275 21,021 29.2 Recurring Net Profit (Rs mn) 4,512 5,946 31.8 15,792 17,084 8.2 Earnings per Share (Rs) 3.3 4.3 31.8 11.5 12.3 7.1 Net Cash Position (Rs mn) 61,528 45,547 -26.0 61,528 45,547 -26.0 Net Cash Per Share (Rs) 44.3 32.8 -26.0 44.3 32.8 -26.0 Capex (Rs mn) 1,019 11,415 >+100.0 4,332 18,922 >+100.0 Note: Valuations and ratios on a recurring basis; Adjusted for capital issues (if any) Source: Company Interims NP adjusted for non recurring gains/losses amounting to Rs.4,020mn in 4Q18, Rs.93mn in 2Q18, –Rs.176mn in 1Q18, Rs.474mn in 4Q17 and Rs.10mn in 3Q17 Sectoral Analysis Sectoral Analysis Composition (%) 4Q17 4Q18 % YoY FY17 FY18 % YoY (Rs mn) 4Q17 4Q18 Net Revenue 29,848 33,553 12.4 106,273 121,215 14.1 100.0 100.0 Transportation 3,454 4,877 41.2 11,110 17,169 54.5 11.6 14.5 Leisure 8,128 8,281 1.9 25,874 25,040 -3.2 27.2 24.7 Consumer Foods & Retail 11,617 13,860 19.3 45,812 53,211 16.2 38.9 41.3 Financial Services 2,197 2,468 12.4 8,296 10,056 21.2 7.4 7.4 Property 172 730 >+100.0 1,121 1,231 9.8 0.6 2.2 Information Technology 3,397 2,456 -27.7 11,107 11,069 -0.3 11.4 7.3 Others 882 880 -0.2 2,953 3,440 16.5 3.0 2.6 Significant increase in Profit After Tax 5,145 7,013 36.3 17,633 18,941 7.4 100.0 100.0 Financial Services earnings Transportation 816 386 -52.7 2,979 3,084 3.5 14.5 3.4 Leisure 2,127 1,878 -11.7 5,008 3,471 -30.7 37.9 16.6 Consumer Foods & Retail 829 652 -21.3 3,804 2,871 -24.5 16.4 6.0 Financial Services 458 3,036 >+100.0 2,042 5,187 >+100.0 8.1 56.8 Property 64 317 >+100.0 333 438 31.6 6.1 8.2 Information Technology 184 155 -15.7 468 360 -23.1 3.3 1.4 Others 668 588 -12.0 2,999 3,529 17.7 13.7 7.5 PAT adjusted for non recurring items as follows Source: Company Interims Property Sector: Change in fair value of investment properties of Rs.613mn in 4Q18, Rs.281mn in 4Q17 and Rs.10mn gain in 3Q17 Leisure Sector: Accelerated depreciation of -Rs.33mn in 2Q18 and -Rs.203mn in 1Q18, gain on sale of PPE of Rs.108mn in 2Q18 CF&R : Change in fair value of investment properties of Rs.22mn in 4Q18, Rs.92mn in 4Q17 Financial Services: One off change in insurance contract liabilities of Rs.3,382mn in 4Q18 Others Sector: Gain on sale of PPE of Rs.29mn in 2Q18, change in fair value of investment properties of Rs.262mn in 4Q18, Rs.101mn in 4Q17 A CT HOLDINGSEQUITY GROUP REPORT AND TITLE CLSA |GROUP Date COMPANY 2 John Keells Holdings Transportation Sector 4Q18 PAT of Rs.386mn (-53% YoY and lowest reported figure in last six years, 3% of group PAT); below our expectations, amid decline in earnings in 42% owned associate, South Asia Gateway Terminal (SAGT); FY18 PAT +4% YoY to Rs.3,084mn SAGT earnings impacted . SAGT earnings were particularly impacted by a write off of some bad debts and deferred tax by bad debt and adjustments as per the new Inland Revenue Act. Excluding these items, SAGT core earnings deferred tax provisions grew YoY in 4Q18 as per management, with volumes growing +14% YoY (vs. +16% YoY growth in the Colombo port) o SAGT’s market share is estimated to have remained broadly unchanged at ~30% in 4Q18 o Meanwhile, the Colombo International Container Terminal (CICT), which commenced operations in Aug 2013, is estimated to be running at utilisation levels of over 80%, whilst utilisation levels at overall port is expected to be over 75%.
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