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EUROPEAN AND MEDITERRANEAN PLANT PROTECTION ORGANIZATION ORGANISATION EUROPEENNE ET MEDITERRANEENNE POUR LA PROTECTION DES PLANTES 12-17833 Pest Risk Analysis for Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum in Solanaceae September 2012 EPPO 21 Boulevard Richard Lenoir 75011 Paris www.eppo.int [email protected] This risk assessment follows the EPPO Standard PM 5/3(4) Decision-support scheme for quarantine pests (available at http://archives.eppo.int/EPPOStandards/pra.htm) and uses the terminology defined in ISPM 5 Glossary of Phytosanitary Terms (available at https://www.ippc.int/index.php). This document was first elaborated by an Expert Working Group and then reviewed by core members and by the Panel on Phytosanitary Measures and if relevant other EPPO bodies. It was finally approved by the Council in September 2012. Cite this document as: EPPO (2012) Final pest risk analysis for Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum in Solanaceae. EPPO, Paris. EPPO PRA for Ca. L. solanacearum EUROPEAN AND MEDITERRANEAN PLANT PROTECTION ORGANIZATION ORGANISATION EUROPEENNE ET MEDITERRANEENNE POUR LA PROTECTION DES PLANTES 12-17833 (12-17594, 12-17383, 11-17160) Pest Risk Analysis for Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum in Solanaceae This PRA was conducted following EPPO Standard PM 5/3 (4) Decision-support scheme PRA for quarantine pests. A preliminary draft has been prepared by the EPPO Secretariat. This document has been reviewed by an Expert Working Group that met in the EPPO Headquarters in Paris on 2010-11-30/12-031. A short associated PRA was also prepared to cover the vector of Ca L. solanacearum, Bactericera cockerelli. This EWG was composed of: Dr Neil GILTRAP - Food and Environment Research Agency, York (United Kingdom) Dr Joseph MUNYANEZA - USDA-ARS Yakima Agricultural Research Lab- Wapato (USA) Dr Anne NISSINEN - MTT Agrifood Research Finland -Jokioinen (Finland) Dr Tarek SOLIMAN - Business Economic Group - Wageningen University - Wageningen (Netherlands) Dr Emilio STEFANI - Dept.Universita degli Studi UNIMORE - Reggio Emilia (Italy) Dr Leon TJOU-TAM-SIN - National Reference Laboratory - Wageningen (Netherlands) Dr Dirk Jan VAN DER GAAG - Plant Protection Service - Wageningen (Netherlands) (core member) Dr Leif SUNDHEIM - Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environment Research - Aas (Norway) (core member) Secretariat Ms Muriel Suffert – EPPO Secretariat Ms Fabienne Grousset – Consultant for EPPO who has prepared the draft PRA. Core members (Dirk Jan Van der Gaag, Leif Sundheim Gritta Schrader, Nursen Ustun, Françoise Petter) reviewed the PRA in autumn 2011. The risk management part was reviewed by the Panel on Phytosanitary Measures for Potato on 2012-02, and by the Panel on Phytosanitary Measures on 2012-03. 1 Some additional references were included in this PRA during the consultation phase within the EPPO framework, when new relevant research results appeared. Nevertheless no exhaustive bibliography was conducted. 1 EPPO PRA for Ca. L. solanacearum Content (you may click on the title to reach the selected section) Initiation ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 Pest categorization ............................................................................................................................................. 8 Probability of entry of a pest ............................................................................................................................ 13 Pathways A1 and B1 Plants for planting of Solanaceae .............................................................................. 16 Pathways A2 and B2 Fruits of Solanaceae .................................................................................................. 21 3. Seed potatoes (including microplants and minitubers) and ware potatoes .............................................. 28 Probability of establishment ............................................................................................................................ 33 Probability of spread ........................................................................................................................................ 42 Assessment of potential economic consequences ............................................................................................ 44 Degree of uncertainty and Conclusion of the pest risk assessment ................................................................. 54 Pest Risk Management ..................................................................................................................................... 56 Pathways A1 and B1 Plants for planting of Solanaceae .............................................................................. 56 Pathways A2 and B2 Fruits of Solanaceae .................................................................................................. 62 Pathway 3 - Seed potatoes (including microplants and minitubers) and ware potatoes .............................. 67 ANNEX 1 Ca. L. solanacearum on carrot and its vector Trioza apicalis ....................................................... 72 ANNEX 2 Notes on the diseases caused by Ca. L. solanacearum .................................................................. 75 ANNEX 3 Potato, tomato, sweet pepper and chilli, carrot, eggplant. Data on fruit production volumes and area in the PRA area ....................................................................................................................................... 77 ANNEX 4 Word Map of Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification ................................................................... 81 ANNEX 5 Trade data for potatoes tubers, peppers, tomatoes and eggplants fruit (quantities in tonnes) .......... 82 ANNEX 6 Maps of cultivation of potato and tomato ...................................................................................... 84 ANNEX 7 Climatic suitability study for Bactericera cockerelli ..................................................................... 86 ANNEX 8 Economic impact assessment ......................................................................................................... 94 References (for this PRA and the one on B. cockerelli) ................................................................................ 103 2 EPPO PRA for Ca. L. solanacearum Stage 1: Initiation General comments on the scope of this PRA: The elements below are essential to the present PRA: - This PRA focuses on Solanaceae hosts of Ca. L. solanacearum, as the bacterium has been reported to cause serious economic losses in the Americas and also in New Zealand on its Solanaceae hosts. The PRA covers the bacterium itself and the bacterium/Bactericera cockerelli complex. B. cockerelli is also a pest in its own right, and a separate PRA has also been prepared. - Although Ca. L. solanacearum has recently been identified on carrot in the PRA area (Finland, Norway, Sweden, Spain), to date there does not seem to be a pathway between carrot and solanaceous plants: the vector on carrot is Trioza apicalis (and a Bactericera sp.), which does not feed on Solanaceae, and there are also no psyllids feeding on both carrot and Solanaceae in this part of the PRA area. Data available for the bacterium on carrot and its vector are found in Annex 1. - There is a major uncertainty regarding the host range of Ca. L. solanacearum, which has now been found outside of Solanaceae, as well as on reservoir plants. For the latter there are uncertainties on whether alternative hosts that are common to the two known vectors (T. apicalis and B. cockerelli) (e.g. spruce) could act as a source of the bacterium in the case that B. cockerelli was introduced (i.e. providing a possible pathway from carrot to Solanaceae in the PRA area). - There are some major uncertainties regarding vectors: (all details on vectors have been grouped in sections 15a and 15b) * to date, it is suspected that the bacterium has more vectors than originally thought * whether a psyllid present in the PRA area could both infest carrot and Solanaceae, thereby increasing the risk of introduction and spread if carrots infected with the bacterium would enter areas where such a psyllid occurs (i.e. providing a possible pathway from carrot to Solanaceae in the PRA area). The existence of such a psyllid would drastically change this PRA. * some specific features of B. cockerelli create a major uncertainty when trying to define the possible zone of establishment of the vector in the field in the PRA area and its impact (detailed in the text). In summary: migration patterns, and occurrence of transient populations; reasons why it does not survive in winter in the northwestern part of its range (e.g. Washington); importance of vertical transmission to the progeny, persistence of the bacterium in B. cockerelli populations and factors affecting this, difference between populations of B. cockerelli in North America. - Ca. L. solanacearum was identified in 2008 and is the subject of extensive research. Knowledge about this pest and its vectors continues to evolve very rapidly. Some additional references were included in this PRA during the consultation phase within the EPPO framework, when new relevant research results appeared. Nevertheless no exhaustive bibliography was conducted. Thus, the scope of this PRA is the risk of Ca. L. solanacearum for Solanaceae. The risk will be assessed with and without the presence of the known vector