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June 21, 2012 June 21, 2012 KOREA Sector News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Food & Beverage (Overweight) KOSPI 1,889.15 -14.97 -0.79 Outperformance driven by strong fundamentals KOSPI 200 250.46 -2.46 -0.97 KOSDAQ 485.18 0.63 0.13 Electronic materials (Overweight) Focus on companies with structural growth potential Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 383,877 3,736 KOSPI 200 59,444 2,899 KOSDAQ 614,975 1,903 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,087,695 KOSDAQ 103,185 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 894 894 0 Institutional 753 861 -109 Retail 1,966 1,885 81 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 60 60 0 Institutional 78 53 25 Retail 1,759 1,783 -24 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 807 541 266 KOSDAQ 12 13 -1 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 415 402 77 KOSDAQ 416 510 69 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 1,227,000 -25,000 314 KODEX LEVERAGE 11,975 -200 204 KODEX INVERSE 7,755 55 139 SK Energy 144,500 -5,000 98 Samsung Engineering 174,000 -7,500 95 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value AHNLAB 107,100 -5,600 63 GMP 1,805 5 53 Sammok Precision & Ind 5,210 505 39 Mohenz 3,410 75 32 Binex 7,020 610 26 Note: As of June 21, 2012 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Industry June 21, 2012 Overweight Food and Beverage Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Woon-mok Baek Outperformance driven by strong fundamentals +822-768-4158 [email protected] 1H12 Review: F&B market, earnings, and share performances were strong F&B shares significantly outperformed the KOSPI in 1H12 on the back of favorable earnings determinants (e.g., grain prices, F/X rates, consumption, product prices, competition, M&As, and overseas expansion). We attribute the sectorÊs robust performance to a drop in grain prices, won appreciation, and lighter competition, which lowered raw material costs and SG&A expenses. In 1H12, F&B shares underwent a virtuous cycle: lower costs led to higher margins, which in turn created earnings momentum, boosting shares. 2H12 Outlook: F/X rates to determine earnings and share performance In 2H12, grain prices are expected to remain on the decline, and product prices are anticipated to rise. Competition will likely ease further as companies are putting more focus on profitability than on market share. In addition, companiesÊ efforts to increase their global presence should pay off. However, the eurozone crisis and economic slowdown in China could continue to keep the won weak. Furthermore, consumption growth might be slower than expected. Table 1. Direction of earnings determinants and impact on share price in 1H12 and 2H12 Direction of earnings determinants Impact on share price Earnings determinants 1H12 2H12 1H12 2H12 Domestic consumption Δ Δ F&B consumption Δ Δ Grain price + + F/X rates , , +,- -, Δ Product price - Δ MS competition + + M&A + + Global expansion + + Note: + positive effects, Δ Neutral effects, - Negative effects, Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research F&B shares to outperform the KOSPI in 2H12 Despite concerns over higher F/X rate volatility, we maintain our Overweight rating on the F&B sector in light of the positive outlooks for the industryÊs earnings determinants. We recommend as our top picks CJ CheilJedang (improvement in foodstuff margins and lysine market share growth), Orion (strong growth in the Chinese confectionery market), Lotte Samkang (emerging as the control tower of the Lotte GroupÊs food businesses integration), Daesang (robust food businesses and earnings improvement at subsidiaries), and KT&G (red ginseng market growth and overseas expansion). We also like Dongwon Industries and Ottogi for their dominant market shares, earnings upsides, and low valuations. This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Industry June 21, 2012 Table 2. Changes in profit determinants 1H12 2H12 Robust grain output expected on favorable weather conditions Favorable weather conditions: Absence of La Niña and El NIño Production growth to outpace consumption growth in 2013 Production growth is outpacing consumption growth in 2012 Grain price Grain demand to shrink amid the global economic slowdown Speculative demand declined Speculative demand to decrease on stable commodity prices Input costs turned downward in 2Q on grain price declines Input costs to continue to decrease in line with grain price downtrend Failed to raise product prices until April due to the governmentÊs CPI control and the national election Price hikes are necessary as PPI growth is staying above CPI growth Product price Premium product line-up continued to expand on consumers trading- Companies to make an attempt to raise the prices of soju, beer, ramen, up trend and cigarettes Prices of soju, beer, ramen, and cigarettes remained unchanged Slowdown in consumption to accelerate companiesÊ overseas Consumption Consumption growth is slowing expansion and M&As Active in overseas expansion to break through long-term slump F&B firms to accelerate overseas expansion in order to overcome Overseas expansion Major driver for share performance differentiation stagnant domestic market; Essential for share price differentiation Won to strengthen again once the global economic uncertainties begin Won appreciation in 1Q boosted share prices to dissipate US$/W Won has been weakening since mid-May on eurozone concerns Difficult to predict F/X rates Major determinant of 2Q earnings To have the biggest impact on 2H12 F&B share performance Strength of the market, earnings and share prices Positives: Product price hikes, stable grain prices, accelerating overseas Production cost declines margin improvement share price expansion Conclusion growth Negatives: Unpredictable US$/W and stagnating consumption Small- to mid-cap share prices rose more sharply on overseas Conclusion: F&B shares to outperform KOSPI unless US$/W rate rises expansion and earnings improvement above 1,200 F&B shares to outperform the KOSPI Investment strategy and Valuations of companies with overseas and earnings momentum to top picks continue to increase Top Picks: CJCJ, Orion, KT&G, Daesang, and Lotte Samkang Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Table 3. Ratings, target prices and valuations of F&B shares Current price Target price PER PBR EV/EBITDA Company Code Rating (KRW) (KRW) (x) (x) (x) CJ Cheiljedang 097950 Buy 351,000 440,000 13.0 2.8 14.7 Orion 001800 Buy 963,000 1,080,000 35.3 6.0 15.9 KT&G 033780 Buy 79,700 98,000 12.3 2.1 7.8 Lotte Samkang 002270 Buy 565,000 680,000 10.6 1.2 6.6 Daesang 001680 Buy 17,900 22,000 8.8 1.2 7.2 Dongwon Industires 006040 Buy 189,000 230,000 5.8 1.1 4.8 Ottogi 007310 Buy 167,500 200,000 8.6 1.0 4.3 Lotte Confectionery 004990 Buy 1,505,000 2,100,000 14.6 0.8 9.6 Nongshim 004370 Buy 206,000 290,000 - 0.9 5.7 Dongwon F&B 049770 Buy 65,500 85,000 7.2 0.6 5.6 Hite Jinro 000080 Buy 22,400 32,000 14.1 1.1 11.3 Binggrae 005180 Trading Buy 74,300 79,000 12.8 1.7 6.9 Note: P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA = 2012F; Share prices are as of market close June 19th, 2012 Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 Industry June 21, 2012 Overweight Electronic materials Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Will Cho Focus on companies with structural growth potential +822-768-4306 [email protected] When investing in electronic materials shares, investors need to take a selective approach and pay close attention to the outlooks for relevant downstream industries.
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