Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

Project Number: 46496-001 December 2016

Republic of the Union of Myanmar: Transformation of Urban Management - Flood Management Component (Financed by the Japanese Fund for Poverty Reduction)

FINAL REPORT PART 1 (Part 1 of 7)

Prepared by International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) (Tsukuba, Japan) CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. (Tokyo, Japan) CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. (Tokyo, Japan) PASCO CORPORATION (Tokyo, Japan)

For: Ministry of Construction and Ministry of Transport and Communications, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, under the Ministry of Transport and Communications.

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design).

Source: ICHARM LOCATION MAP

TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Table of Contents Part II Flood Management

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ ¢¡¡¢ £¤¥¥

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1-1 1.1 Background ...... 1-1 1.1.1 Disaster Condition in Myanmar ...... 1-1 1.1.2 Outline of TA-8456 ...... 1-4 1.2 Objectives of the Part II Component ...... 1-5 1.2.1 Main Objectives...... 1-5 1.2.2 Target Area ...... 1-6 1.2.3 Target Disasters ...... 1-11 1.2.4 Outputs from TA-8456 ...... 1-11 1.2.5 Reporting ...... 1-11 1.3 Implementation Structure ...... 1-12 1.3.1 Main Counterparts ...... 1-12 1.3.2 Cooperative Framework of TA-8456 ...... 1-12 1.3.3 Consultant Team ...... 1-13 1.4 Overview of Activities ...... 1-14 1.4.1 General Description ...... 1-14 1.4.2 Implementation Process of TA-8456 ...... 1-14 1.4.3 Missions and Descriptions of Activities Undertaken ...... 1-41

CHAPTER 2 NEEDS ASSESSMENT ...... 2-1 2.1 Methodology of Needs Survey ...... 2-1 2.1.1 Needs Assessment of DMH ...... 2-1 2.1.2 Needs Assessment of Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment ...... 2-1 2.1.3 Procedure of Questionnaire Survey ...... 2-3 2.1.4 Participated Organizations ...... 2-3 2.2 Results of Needs Assessment of DMH ...... 2-4 2.3 Results of Needs Assessment of Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment ...... 2-12 2.4 Recommendations for Future Improvement on Risk Assessment in Myanmar ...... 2-18 2.4.1 Basic Framework for Risk Assessment ...... 2-18 2.4.2 Data Management and Processing ...... 2-18 2.4.3 Utilization of Risk Assessment ...... 2-18

CHAPTER 3 DATA COLLECTION...... 3-1 3.1 General Descriptions ...... 3-1 3.1.1 Identification of Data/Information Requirements for TA-8456 Part II ...... 3-1 3.1.2 Methodology of Data/Information Collection from Myanmar Side ...... 3-3 3.1.3 Schedule and Procedures for Data/Information Collection ...... 3-4 3.2 Data Collection ...... 3-5 3.2.1 Data/Information Holders ...... 3-5 3.2.2 Collected Data ...... 3-13 3.2.3 Additionally Collected Data ...... 3-16 3.3 Findings and Recommendations ...... 3-17

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Table of Contents TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

CHAPTER 4 HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS ...... 4-1 4.1 Introduction...... 4-1 4.2 Development of Flood Inundation Simulation Model using RRI Model ...... 4-2 4.2.1 Outline of RRI Model ...... 4-2 4.2.2 Data/Information Necessary for Development of Model ...... 4-7 4.2.3 Specification of Flood Analysis Model ...... 4-15 4.2.4 Model Calibration ...... 4-23 4.2.5 Reflection of Suggestions/Comments for the Improvement of the Simulation Model4-27 4.2.6 Improvement on Elevation Data for Flood Hazard Simulation (Second RRI Model)4-27 4.2.7 Statistical Analysis to Identify the Target Flood for Flood Hazard Simulation in Mandalay ...... 4-30 4.2.8 Applying Rainfall Intensity Formula for Yangon (Third RRI Model) ...... 4-31 4.2.9 Adjustment of Ground Elevation in Yangon Area (Third and Fourth RRI Model) 4-33 4.2.10 Revision of Lower Boundary Condition (Fifth RRI Model) ...... 4-34 4.2.11 Coastal Flood Inundation Simulation ...... 4-35 4.2.12 Findings and Recommendations ...... 4-36 4.3 Flood Inundation Simulation Model for Other Basins ...... 4-37 4.3.1 General Description ...... 4-37 4.3.2 Bago ...... 4-39 4.3.3 Nyaung Don ...... 4-41 4.3.4 Kale ...... 4-42 4.3.5 Findings and Recommendations ...... 4-43 4.4 Storm Surge Analysis...... 4-44 4.4.1 Basics of Storm Surge...... 4-44 4.4.2 Development of Storm Surge Model with Myers Formula ...... 4-46 4.4.3 Simulation ...... 4-52 4.4.4 Findings and Recommendations ...... 4-56

CHAPTER 5 FLOOD AND STORM SURGE RISK ASSESSMENT...... 5-1 5.1 Basics of Risk Assessment ...... 5-1 5.1.1 General Description ...... 5-1 5.1.2 Preparation of Risk Assessment ...... 5-2 5.2 Hazard Assessment ...... 5-6 5.2.1 Identification of the Target Scale of Flood Hazard ...... 5-6 5.2.2 Flood Hazard Mapping ...... 5-9 5.2.3 Coastal Flood Hazard Mapping ...... 5-21 5.3 Flood Risk Assessment ...... 5-25 5.3.1 Importance of Flood Risk Assessment ...... 5-25 5.3.2 Methodology of Flood Risk Assessment ...... 5-28 5.3.3 Results of Flood Risk Assessment in Target Areas ...... 5-39

CHAPTER 6 BUSINESS PLAN ...... 6-1 6.1 General Description ...... 6-1 6.2 Identification of Issues and Challenges of DMH ...... 6-2 6.2.1 Review of MAPDRR ...... 6-2 6.2.2 Findings from the Cyclone Komen in 2015 ...... 6-11 6.2.3 Review of Needs Assessment ...... 6-15 6.2.4 Other Related Projects ...... 6-16 6.3 Proposed Business Plan ...... 6-18 6.3.1 Enhancement of Meteorological and Hydrological Monitoring ...... 6-19 ii International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. PASCO CORPORATION

TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Table of Contents Part II Flood Management

6.3.2 Utilization of Satellite Images ...... 6-28 6.3.3 Assessment and Mitigation of Landslide Disaster Risk ...... 6-31 6.3.4 Risk Reduction by a Timeline Plan ...... 6-35

CHAPTER 7 CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT ...... 7-1 7.1 General Description ...... 7-1 7.2 Training on Meteorological and Hydrological Modelling ...... 7-1 7.2.1 Overview of Training on Meteorological and Hydrological Modelling ...... 7-1 7.2.2 Basic Training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model ...... 7-3 7.2.3 Development and Implementation of Training Program for Trainer Candidates ..... 7-5 7.2.4 RRI Model Training by DMH ...... 7-14 7.3 Equipment ...... 7-15 7.4 Procurement of Commercial Data ...... 7-17 7.5 Development and Implementation of Training on Flood and Storm-Surge Risk Assessment ...... 7-18 7.5.1 Preliminary Activities for Development of the Training Program ...... 7-18 7.5.2 Development and Implementation of Training Program ...... 7-19 7.6 Other Activities (Field Survey) ...... 7-20 7.7 Recommendations ...... 7-21

CHAPTER 8 THE WAY FORWARD: RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 8-1 8.1 Recommendations for DMH ...... 8-1 8.1.1 Improvement and Utilization of Flood Hazard Analysis ...... 8-1 8.1.2 Flood Forecasting and Warning ...... 8-3 8.1.3 Capacity Development ...... 8-4 8.2 Recommendations for Implementation Network Organizations on Flood Management ... 8-5 8.2.1 Improvement of City Drainage ...... 8-5 8.2.2 Utilization of Information for River Management ...... 8-6 8.2.3 Enhancement of the Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction ...... 8-6

ANNEXES

ANNEX 1: SUMMARY REPORT OF MEETINGS AND WORKSHOPS ANNEX 2: ACTIVITIES AND DESCRIPTION UNDERTAKEN BY TA-8456 ANNEX 3: LIST OF THE MEETINGS CONDUCTED UNDER TA-8456 ANNEX 4: SUMMARY OF THE COLLECTED DATA AND INFORMATION ANNEX 5: DATUM LEVEL ANNEX 6: FLOOD INUNDATION ANALYSIS OF MANDALAY ANNEX 7: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ANNEX 8: FLOOD HAZARD MAPS ANNEX 9: COASTAL FLOOD HAZARD MAPS

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Table of Contents TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

List of Tables

Table 1.1.1 Disasters related to Flood and Storm Surge in Myanmar...... 1-1 Table 1.2.1 Main Objectives of Part II ...... 1-5 Table 1.2.2 Outline of Major River Basins in Target Areas ...... 1-6 Table 1.2.3 List of Outputs ...... 1-11 Table 1.2.4 Reports submitted to DMH and ADB ...... 1-11 Table 1.3.1 ADB TA-8456 Part II Consultant Team Composition ...... 1-13 Table 1.4.1 Major Activities of TA-8456 Part II ...... 1-14 Table 1.4.2 Missions Undertaken from July 2014 to October 2016 ...... 1-42

Table 2.1.1 Description of Procedures for the Needs Assessment ...... 2-2 Table 2.1.2 Description of Procedures for the Needs Assessment ...... 2-3 Table 2.2.1 Summary of Needs Assessment for DMH (System and Technology) ...... 2-5 Table 2.2.2 Summary of Needs Assessment for DMH (Human Resources) ...... 2-8 Table 2.2.3 Summary of Needs Assessment for DMH (Institutional Setup) ...... 2-9 Table 2.3.1 Summary of Questionnaire Survey for Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment (1/2) ...... 2-13 Table 2.3.2 Summary of Questionnaire Survey for Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment (2/2) ...... 2-16

Table 3.1.1 List of Data/Information Necessary for Hydrological/Hydraulic Modeling of Floods and Storm Surges ...... 3-1 Table 3.1.2 List of Data/Information Necessary for Flood/Storm Surge Risk Assessment ...... 3-3 Table 3.1.3 Description of Procedures of Data Collection ...... 3-4 Table 3.2.1 List of Organizations for Data Request ...... 3-6 Table 3.2.2 Result of the Survey on Data Availability for Hydrological/Hydraulic Modeling ...... 3-7 Table 3.2.3 Result of the Survey on Data Availability for Flood/Storm Surge Risk Assessment ... 3-8 Table 3.2.4 Specifications of Each Data Item for Hydrological/Hydraulic Modeling (1/3) ...... 3-9 Table 3.2.5 Specifications of Each Data Item for Hydrological/Hydraulic Modeling (2/3) ...... 3-10 Table 3.2.6 Specifications of Each Data Item for Hydrological/Hydraulic Modeling (3/3) (Available in Japan) ...... 3-10 Table 3.2.7 Specifications of Each Data Item for Risk Assessment (1/2) ...... 3-11 Table 3.2.8 Specifications of Each Data Item for Risk Assessment (2/2) ...... 3-12 Table 3.2.9 Summary of Major Global Data ...... 3-13 Table 3.2.10 Collected Data for Risk Assessment from Related Organizations in Myanmar ...... 3-14

Table 4.1.1 Assignment of DMH Staff ...... 4-1 Table 4.2.1 Calculation Speed of RRI Model ...... 4-5 Table 4.2.2 Collected Meteorological and Hydrological Data for the Target Areas ...... 4-7 Table 4.2.3 Features of Global Rainfall Data ...... 4-9 Table 4.2.4 Daily Rainfall & Discharge at Dams (ID) ...... 4-10 Table 4.2.5 General Description of SRTM and Aster GDEM ...... 4-11 Table 4.2.6 Summary of Model Development ...... 4-15 Table 4.2.7 Model Range for Three Cities (Yangon, Mandalay and, Mawlamyine) ...... 4-16 Table 4.2.8 Model Parameters for the Initial Model ...... 4-20 Table 4.3.1 Collected Meteorological and Hydrological Data for Bago ...... 4-39 Table 4.3.2 Model Range for Bago ...... 4-40 Table 4.3.3 Summary of Nyaung Don Model ...... 4-41 Table 4.3.4 Summary of Kale Model...... 4-43 Table 4.4.1 Outline of Storm Surge Model used by DMH Meteorological Division ...... 4-44

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TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Table of Contents Part II Flood Management

Table 4.4.2 Model Parameters (Japanese Case) ...... 4-48 Table 4.4.3 Data/Information Necessary for Development of Strom Surge Model ...... 4-50 Table 4.4.4 Killer Cyclones & Associated Storm Surges ...... 4-51 Table 4.4.5 Calculation Condition ...... 4-52

Table 5.1.1 Flood Damage Ratio for House Building in the Case of Japan ...... 5-5 Table 5.1.2 Flood Damage Ratio for Household Goods in the Case of Japan4 ...... 5-5 Table 5.1.3 Flood Damage Ratio for Agriculture (rice crop) in the Case of Japan4 ...... 5-5 Table 5.2.1 Proposed Target Flood Scales for Risk Assessment in the TA ...... 5-7 Table 5.2.2 Proposed Target Scales of Storm Surge for Risk Assessment in the TA ...... 5-8 Table 5.2.3 Proposed Combination of Flood Scale and Storm Surge ...... 5-9 Table 5.2.4 List of Data Collection for Flood Hazard Mapping and Their Descriptions ...... 5-12 Table 5.2.5 Basic and Optional Items for Formulation of Hazard Maps ...... 5-13 Table 5.2.6 Summary of Flood Hazard Map (FHM) ...... 5-15 Table 5.2.7 Summary of Flood Hazard Maps as of November 2016 ...... 5-16 Table 5.2.8 Summary of Coastal Flood Hazard Maps (CFHM) ...... 5-21 Table 5.3.1 Risk Assessment Level ...... 5-27 Table 5.3.2 General Description of Data used for Flood Risk Assessment ...... 5-28 Table 5.3.3 Summary of Flood Inundation Areas in the Target Areas...... 5-30 Table 5.3.4 List of Some Globally Available Land Cover Data ...... 5-31 Table 5.3.5 List of Some Globally Available Population Data ...... 5-31 Table 5.3.6 Classification of GLCNMO Land Cover Data ...... 5-32 Table 5.3.7 Summary of Potentially Exposed Population in the Target Areas ...... 5-36 Table 5.3.8 Descriptions of Agricultural Damage Estimation ...... 5-40 Table 5.3.9 Summary of Calculated Results of Flood Damage Assessment ...... 5-42 Table 5.3.10 Comparison of Calculated Damage Paddy Area with Reported Damage Area ...... 5-43

Table 6.2.1 Seven Components of MAPDRR ...... 6-2 Table 6.2.2 Component 2: Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (abstract from original) (MAPDRR, 2012) ...... 6-3 Table 6.2.3 Component 3: Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems (abstract from original) (MAPDRR, 2012) ...... 6-6 Table 6.2.4 Component 4: Preparedness and Response Programs at National, State/Region, District and Township Levels (abstract from original) (MAPDRR, 2012) ...... 6-8 Table 6.2.5 Component 7: Public Awareness, Education and Training (abstract from original) (MAPDRR, 2012) ...... 6-9 Table 6.2.6 Necessary Actions for the Implementation of MAPDRR...... 6-10

Table 6.2.7 Estimated storage volume of the landslide dam ...... 6-14

¦§ ¨§ © ¢        ¥ ¢   ¢  ¥ ¡¢£¤¥ ...... 6-19 Table 6.3.2 Recommended Minimum Densities of Stations (area in km2 per station) ...... 6-21 Table 6.3.3 Major Satellite Products (As of July 2014) ...... 6-29

Table 7.2.1 Summary of Training Programs (TM-1 to TM-4) and Follow-up Training ...... 7-2 Table 7.2.2 Participants of TM-2 ...... 7-4 Table 7.2.3 Participants of TM-3 ...... 7-6 Table 7.2.4 Participants of TM-4 ...... 7-8 Table 7.2.5 Way Forward on RRI Model Presented by DMH and ID...... 7-10 Table 7.2.6 Activities on RRI Model in Follow-up Trainings ...... 7-10 Table 7.2.7 Summary of 1st Follow-up Training ...... 7-11 Table 7.2.8 Summary of 2nd Follow-up Training Activities ...... 7-12 Table 7.2.9 Summary of 3rd Follow-up Training Activities ...... 7-13 Table 7.2.10 Summary of 4th Follow-up Training Activities ...... 7-14 Table 7.3.1 Equipment Provided by TA-8456 Project ...... 7-16

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Table of Contents TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

Table 7.4.1 Procurement of Commercial Data during TA-8456 ...... 7-17 Table 7.5.1 Summary of Training on Flood Disaster Risk Assessment ...... 7-20

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TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Table of Contents Part II Flood Management

List of Figures

Figure 1.1.1 Flood Inundation Areas in Myanmar Delta Areas (MODIS flood inundation map). . 1-2 Figure 1.1.2 Flood Inundation Areas in Myanmar (2015)...... 1-3 Figure 1.2.1 Myanmar River Basin Map ...... 1-7 Figure 1.2.2 Location Map of Yangon City...... 1-8 Figure 1.2.3 Location Map of Mandalay City ...... 1-9 Figure 1.2.4 Location Map of Mawlamyine City ...... 1-10 Figure 1.4.1 Opening Remarks by Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH ...... 1-15 Figure 1.4.2 Group Photo of the Inception Meeting ...... 1-15 Figure 1.4.3 Group Photo of Workshop at DMH, Nay Pyi Taw...... 1-16 Figure 1.4.4 Presentation by DMH Meteorology Officer ...... 1-16 Figure 1.4.5 Pun Hlaing River which connects Hlaing River and Ayeyarwady River in Yangon Basin (8 Oct 2014) ...... 1-17 Figure 1.4.6 Twante Canal Flood Gate in Twante Canal which connects Hlaing River and Thande River in Yangon Basin (8 Oct 2014) ...... 1-17 Figure 1.4.7 Aung Theikdi Road & Creek in Yangon City (8 Oct 2014) ...... 1-17 Figure 1.4.8 Creek in Yangon City (8 Oct 2014)...... 1-17 Figure 1.4.9 Flood Prone Agricultural Area in Mawlamyine (12 Oct 2014)...... 1-18 Figure 1.4.10 Estuary of Thanlwin River in Mawlamyine (12 Oct 2014) ...... 1-18 Figure 1.4.11 Drainage Canals in Mandalay City (16 Oct 2014 ) ...... 1-18 Figure 1.4.12 Flood Mark in a Village near Ayeyarwady River in Mandalay (16 Oct 2014) ...... 1-18 Figure 1.4.13 Explanation of Importance and Benefits of Risk Assessment by the Consultant Team ...... 1-22 Figure 1.4.14 Group Photo of the Consultation Meeting ...... 1-22 Figure 1.4.15 Presentation on Flood Hazard Assessment in Mandalay area by Mr. Myo Tun Oo of DMH ...... 1-22 Figure 1.4.16 Presentation on Flood Hazard Assessment in Mawlamyine area by Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing of DMH ...... 1-22 Figure 1.4.17 Presentation on Flood Hazard Assessment in Yangon Area by Ms. Myo Myat Thu of DMH ...... 1-22 Figure 1.4.18 Presentation on Flood Hazard Assessment in Bago River Basin by Ms. Shwe Pyi Tan of ID ...... 1-22 Figure 1.4.19 Opening Remarks by Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH in Interim Meeting Part-A ...... 1-23 Figure 1.4.20 Presentation on the Result of Flood Inundation Analysis in Upper Myanmar Area by Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing, DMH ...... 1-23 Figure 1.4.21 Opening Remarks by Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH in Interim Meeting Part-B ...... 1-24 Figure 1.4.22 Presentation by Ms. Theingi Aung, Mawlamyine Township Development Committee ...... 1-24 Figure 1.4.23 Presentation by Mr. Kyaw Min Oo, Yangon City Development Committee ...... 1-24 Figure 1.4.24 Presentation by Mr. Myo Aung, Mandalay City Development Committee ...... 1-24 Figure 1.4.25 Presentation by Ms. Ohn Khin, General Administration Department ...... 1-25 Figure 1.4.26 Group Photo of the Workshop on Flood Hazard Mapping ...... 1-26 Figure 1.4.27 Opening Remarks by Mr. Hisaya Sawano, Team Leader of ADB TA-8456 Part II1-26 Figure 1.4.28 Opening Remarks by Mr. Soe Si, Committee Member, YCDC ...... 1-29 Figure 1.4.29 Group Photo of Workshop Participants in Yangon ...... 1-29 Figure 1.4.30 Opening Remarks by Mr. Aung Min, Chairman, MWTDC ...... 1-29 Figure 1.4.31 Group Photo of Workshop Participants in Mawlamyine ...... 1-29 Figure 1.4.32 Opening Remarks by Mr. Tun Kyi, Committee Member, MCDC ...... 1-29

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Table of Contents TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

Figure 1.4.33 Group Photo of Workshop Participants in Mandalay ...... 1-29 Figure 1.4.34 Meeting at GAD Nyaung Don Office ...... 1-31 Figure 1.4.35 Field Survey in Nyaung Don Area (flood mark survey) ...... 1-31 Figure 1.4.36 Opening Remarks by Mr. Kaw Moe Oo, Deputy Director General of DMH ...... 1-32 Figure 1.4.37 Opening Remarks by Prof. Toshio Koike, Director of ICHARM ...... 1-32 Figure 1.4.38 Group Photo of Final Workshop ...... 1-33 Figure 1.4.39 Explanation of Overall Activities of TA-8456 by Mr. Hisaya Sawano, Team Leader of TA-8456 Part II ...... 1-33 Figure 1.4.40 Presentation of Meteorological Analysis with Storm Surge Model by Trainer Candidate Dr. Than Naing of DMH ...... 1-33 Figure 1.4.41 Presentation on Hydrological Analysis with RRI Model and Flood and Coastal Flood Hazard Mapping for Mawlamyine by Trainer Candidate Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing of DMH ...... 1-33 Figure 1.4.42 Presentation on Hydrological Analysis with RRI Model and Flood and Coastal Flood Hazard Mapping for Yangon by Trainer Candidate Ms. Aye Aye Naing of DMH ...... 1-33 Figure 1.4.43 Presentation on Hydrological Analysis with RRI Model and Flood Hazard Mapping for Mandalay by Trainer Candidate Ms. Khin Min Wun Soe of DMH ... 1-34 Figure 1.4.44 Presentation on Assessment of Flood Hazard and Agricultural Damage in Bago River Basin by Trainer Candidate Dr. Aung Than Oo of IWUMD ...... 1-34 Figure 1.4.45 Presentation on Assessment of Flood Hazard and Agricultural Damage caused by Cyclone Komen in Kale Area by Trainer Candidate Ms. Aye Aye Naing of DMH 1-34 Figure 1.4.46 Presentation on Assessment of Flood Hazard and Agricultural Damage caused by Cyclone Komen in Nyaung Don Area by Trainer Candidate Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing of DMH ...... 1-34 Figure 1.4.47 Closing Remarks by Mr. Bertrand Clochard, Project Leader of ADB TA-8456 .... 1-34 Figure 1.4.48 Closing Remarks by Mr. Hisaya Sawano, Team Leader of TA-8456 Part II ...... 1-34 Figure 1.4.49 Closing Remarks by Mr. Kaw Moe Oo, Deputy Director General of DMH ...... 1-35 Figure 1.4.50 Mr. Hisaya Sawano, the Team Leader of TA-8456 Part II, delivered the Project Report (preliminary version) to Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH ... 1-35 Figure 1.4.51 Group Photo of the Meeting Participants ...... 1-35 Figure 1.4.52 Conferment of Certificate on RRI Model ...... 1-36 Figure 1.4.53 Group Photo of the Training ...... 1-36 Figure 1.4.54 Submission of the Project Report (preliminary version) to H.E. U Phyo Min Thein, Chief Minister of Yangon on 17 August 2016 ...... 1-36 Figure 1.4.55 Group Photo of Meeting Participants in Yangon Regional Government ...... 1-36 Figure 1.4.56 Submission of the Project Report (preliminary version) to H.E. U Maung Maung Soe, Mayor of YCDC on 19 August 2016...... 1-37 Figure 1.4.57 Opening and Welcome Remarks by Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH1-39 Figure 1.4.58 Explanation of the Achievements of ADB TA-8456 Part II by Mr. Hisaya Sawano, Team Leader of TA-8456 Part II ...... 1-39 Figure 1.4.59 Group Photo of the Final Meeting...... 1-40 Figure 1.4.60 Closing Remarks by Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH ...... 1-40 Figure 1.4.61 Closing Remarks by Mr. Bertrand Clochard, Project Leader of ADB TA-8456 .... 1-40 Figure 1.4.62 Tidal Gauge in MITT ...... 1-41 Figure 1.4.63 Automatic Tide Recorder (MPA) ...... 1-41

Figure 2.1.1 Schedule and Process for the Needs Assessment ...... 2-2

Figure 3.1.1 Schedule and Process of Data Collection ...... 3-4

Figure 4.2.1 Conceptual Diagram of RRI Model ...... 4-2 Figure 4.2.2 Maximum Inundation Depth (Pampanga River basin) ...... 4-3 viii International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. PASCO CORPORATION

TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Table of Contents Part II Flood Management

Figure 4.2.3 Distribution of Calculated Agricultural Flood Damage (Pampanga River basin) ..... 4-3 Figure 4.2.4 Flood Forecasting and Hazard Analysis System by using IFAS and RRI Model (Indus River basin) ...... 4-4 Figure 4.2.5 Flood Risk Information System (Chao Phraya River basin) ...... 4-5 Figure 4.2.6 Typical Display of RRI_Builder ...... 4-6 Figure 4.2.7 Typical Display of RRI_Viewer ...... 4-6 Figure 4.2.8 Stations of Collected Meteorological and Hydrological Data from DMH (Yangon) 4-8 Figure 4.2.9 Stations of Collected Meteorological and Hydrological Data from DMH (Mandalay)4-8 Figure 4.2.10 Stations of Collected Meteorological and Hydrological Data from DMH (Mawlamyine) ...... 4-9 Figure 4.2.11 Stations of Collected Meteorological and Hydrological Data from ID...... 4-9 Figure 4.2.12 Modeling of River Shape by DEM (in case that actual river width is much larger than calculation grid size) ...... 4-12 Figure 4.2.13 River Bed Contour Lines near Mandalay from DWIR ...... 4-12 Figure 4.2.14 Representative Elevation (AW3D) ...... 4-13 Figure 4.2.15 Land use of Yangon Detail Model and Classification in the GLC2000 ...... 4-14 Figure 4.2.16 Detail Model and Large Basin Model for Yangon ...... 4-17 Figure 4.2.17 Detail Model and Large Basin Model for Mandalay ...... 4-18 Figure 4.2.18 Detail Model and Large Basin Model for Mawlamyine ...... 4-19 Figure 4.2.19 Population Density Distribution and Past Inundated area in Three Cities ...... 4-20 Figure 4.2.20 Determination of River Width and Depth to Reflect Actual Cross Section ...... 4-22 Figure 4.2.21 Result of Calibration for Yangon Detail Model ...... 4-23 Figure 4.2.22 Results of Calibration for Mandalay Detail Model ...... 4-24 Figure 4.2.23 Result of Calibration for Mawlamyine Detail Model ...... 4-25 Figure 4.2.24 Rainfall Distribution using Thiessen Method for Yangon Detail Model ...... 4-26 Figure 4.2.25 DEM of Yangon Detail Model ...... 4-26 Figure 4.2.26 Range Replaced with Finer Elevation Data in Detail Model Area ...... 4-28 Figure 4.2.27 Simulated Results of Flood Inundation using AW3D ...... 4-29 Figure 4.2.28 Location of Cross Section Survey ...... 4-30 Figure 4.2.29 Cross Section near Mandalay (2013 and 2014) ...... 4-30 Figure 4.2.30 YCDC Rainfall Intensity Formula and Model Hyetograph (100-year return period) in Yangon ...... 4-32 Figure 4.2.31 Prepartion of Center-Concentrated Hyetograph...... 4-32 Figure 4.2.32 DEM with 180m Square Gird ...... 4-33 Figure 4.2.33 Results of Simulation using 180m Square Grid ...... 4-33 Figure 4.2.34 Calibrated Areas of Yangon with Benchmarks ...... 4-34 Figure 4.2.35 Relationship between Tide Level and Elevation of TSEZ ...... 4-34 Figure 4.2.36 Simulated Results of Coastal Flood Inundation (Yangon, First Version*) ...... 4-35 Figure 4.2.37 Simulated Results of Coastal Flood Inundation (Yangon, Third Version*) ...... 4-36 Figure 4.2.38 Simulated Results of Coastal Flood Inundation (Mawlamyine) ...... 4-36 Figure 4.3.1 Detail Model for Bago ...... 4-37 Figure 4.3.2 Detail Model and Large Basin Model for other Areas ...... 4-38 Figure 4.3.3 Stations of Collected Meteorological and Hydrological Data (Bago) ...... 4-38 Figure 4.3.4 Hydro-Meteorological Stations ...... 4-39 Figure 4.3.5 Result of Bago Detail Model ...... 4-40 Figure 4.3.6 Issue on Calculation Area in Low-Lying Area ...... 4-40 Figure 4.3.7 Comparison of Simulated Results and Actual Inundated Area for Nyaung Don ..... 4-42

Figure 4.3.8 Comparison of Simulated Results and Actual Inundated Area for Kale ...... 4-43

©¨¦ ¦¥  ¡       ¦  ¤    Figure 4.4.1 ¡¢£¤¥¦§¨¢ ...... 4-45 Figure 4.4.2 Definition of Storm Surge ...... 4-45 Figure 4.4.3 Mechanism of Storm Surge ...... 4-45 Figure 4.4.4 Sea Level Rise by Low Air Pressure ...... 4-45 Figure 4.4.5 Sea Level Rise by Ocean Wind ...... 4-45

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Table of Contents TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

Figure 4.4.6 Calculation of Air Pressure Field ...... 4-46 Figure 4.4.7 Comparison of Estimated Air Pressure Field ...... 4-47 Figure 4.4.8 Calculation of Wind Field ...... 4-47 Figure 4.4.9 Definition of V10 ...... 4-48 Figure 4.4.10 Diagram on Distribution of Wind Velocity (North hemisphere) ...... 4-48 Figure 4.4.11 Influence by Sea Floor Bed ...... 4-49 Figure 4.4.12 Calculation of Sea Water Level (two-dimensional unsteady flow) ...... 4-49 Figure 4.4.13 Location of Tidal Stations ...... 4-51 Figure 4.4.14 Estimated Storm Surge (1/4) ...... 4-53 Figure 4.4.15 Estimated Storm Surge (2/4) ...... 4-54 Figure 4.4.16 Estimated Storm Surge (3/4) ...... 4-55 Figure 4.4.17 Estimated Storm Surge (4/4) ...... 4-56

Figure 5.1.1 Structure of Disaster Risk ...... 5-2 Figure 5.1.2 Flood Hazard Map of the Tone River, Japan ...... 5-3 Figure 5.1.3 Estimation of Flood Damage ...... 5-4 Figure 5.1.4 Process of Damage Data Collection in Japan (Source: MLIT) ...... 5-4 Figure 5.2.1 Virtual Cyclone Track for Storm Surge Analysis of Mawlamyine...... 5-8 Figure 5.2.2 Steps of Flood Hazard Mapping with Three Phases ...... 5-10 Figure 5.2.3 Explanation of Basic Conditions of Flood Hazard Mapping ...... 5-11 Figure 5.2.4 Basic Formulation Structure of a Hazard Map ...... 5-13 Figure 5.2.5 Flood Hazard Maps in Yangon ...... 5-18 Figure 5.2.6 Flood Hazard Maps in Mandalay ...... 5-19 Figure 5.2.7 Flood Hazard Maps in Mawlamyine ...... 5-20 Figure 5.2.8 Flood Marks of Cyclone Nargis (near Botahtaung Pagoda, in Yangon) ...... 5-22 Figure 5.2.9 Calibrated Areas of Yangon with Benchmarks ...... 5-22 Figure 5.2.10 Coastal Flood Hazard Map Considering Cyclone Nargis in Yangon (Third version)5-23 Figure 5.2.11 Coastal Flood Hazard Map Considering a Virtual Cyclone in Mawlamyine (First version) ...... 5-24 Figure 5.3.1 Process for Flood Disaster Risk Management Plan ...... 5-25 Figure 5.3.2 Example of Evaluation of Effectiveness of Preventive Measures (Source: MLIT) . 5-26 Figure 5.3.3 Example of Evaluation of Effectiveness of Preventive Measures in Aichi and Fukuoka Prefectures, Japan (Source: MLIT) ...... 5-26 Figure 5.3.4 Maximum Flood Inundation Depth in Case of Mandalay Area ...... 5-29 Figure 5.3.5 Maximum Flood Inundation Depth in Case of Yangon Area ...... 5-29 Figure 5.3.6 Maximum Flood Inundation Depth in Case of Mawlamyine Area ...... 5-30 Figure 5.3.7 Maximum Flood Inundation Depth in Case of Bago River Basin ...... 5-30 Figure 5.3.8 GLCNMO Land Cover in the Target Areas ...... 5-32 Figure 5.3.9 Paddy Fields in the Target Areas Based on GLCNMO Land Cover Data ...... 5-33 Figure 5.3.10 Distribution of Population in the Target Areas Based on LandScan 2014 Global Population at 30 arc-second Grid Size (approximately 900m) ...... 5-34 Figure 5.3.11 Potentially Exposed Population in Flood Hazards Areas in Mandalay (at 450 m grid size) ...... 5-35 Figure 5.3.12 Potentially Exposed Population in Flood Hazards Areas in Yangon (at 450 m grid size) ...... 5-35 Figure 5.3.13 Potentially Exposed Population in Flood Hazards Areas in Mawlamyine (at 450 m grid size) ...... 5-36 Figure 5.3.14 Potentially Exposed Population in Flood Hazards Areas in Bago (at 900 m grid size) ...... 5-36 Figure 5.3.15 Process of Agriculture Damage Estimation ...... 5-37 Figure 5.3.16 Damage Curves of Rice Crops Resulting from Flood Inundation (Shrestha et al., 2015) ...... 5-38 Figure 5.3.17 Growth Stages of Rice Crops and the Duration of Each Stage ...... 5-38 x International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. PASCO CORPORATION

TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Table of Contents Part II Flood Management

Figure 5.3.18 Cropping Patterns Currently Practiced in (a) Mandalay region, (b) Yangon region, and (c) Mon State (Mawlamyine) region (Data source: Department of Agricultural Planning, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Myanmar)...... 5-39 Figure 5.3.19 Calculated Agricultural Damage (rice crop) in Mandalay Areas ...... 5-40 Figure 5.3.20 Calculated Agricultural Damage (rice crop) in Yangon Areas (450m x 450m grid size) ...... 5-41 Figure 5.3.21 Calculated Agricultural Damage (rice crop) in Mawlamyine Areas (450m x 450m grid size) ...... 5-41 Figure 5.3.22 Calculated Agricultural Damage (rice crop) in Bago Areas (900m x 900m grid size)5-42 Figure 5.3.23 Plots of Calculated and Reported Paddy Damage Area ...... 5-44

Figure 6.2.1 Satellite Images Indicating the Formation of a Natural Dam in 2015 ...... 6-14 Figure 6.2.2 Estimation of the Storage Area by Topographic Analysis...... 6-14 Figure 6.3.1 Location of Meteorological and Hydrological Stations ...... 6-23 Figure 6.3.2 Float Measurement for High flow ...... 6-25 Figure 6.3.3 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP)...... 6-25 Figure 6.3.4 Example of Data Management by Royal Irrigation Department (RID), Thailand ... 6-27 Figure 6.3.5 Example of Data Management by National Land with Water Information Data Management Center (https://www5.river.go.jp/) ...... 6-27 Figure 6.3.6 Meteorological Station at Mahaxay in LAO. P.D.R ...... 6-28 Figure 6.3.7 Extension of Flood Inundation Area in Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, in 2011 (LADARSAT, SAR Images) ...... 6-30 Figure 6.3.8 Land Cover Map in Chao Phraya River Basin (LANDSAT, Optical Images) ...... 6-30 Figure 6.3.9 Designation of Potential Sediment Disaster Areas ...... 6-33 Figure 6.3.10 Example of Snake Line for Warning Information Issuance ...... 6-33 Figure 6.3.11 Application of Soil Water Index ...... 6-34 Figure 6.3.12 Example of Sediment-related Disaster Alert Information ...... 6-34 Figure 6.3.13 Emergency Response ...... 6-34 Figure 6.3.14 Prevention of Collapse of a Natural Dam ...... 6-34 Figure 6.3.15 Survey and Investigation to Clarify the Causes and Characteristics of Landslide. 6-35 Figure 6.3.16 Selected Methods to Reduce Landslide Risk ...... 6-35 Figure 6.3.17 Effectiveness of a Timeline Plan ...... 6-35 Figure 6.3.18 Timeline Plan for Typhoon ...... 6-36 Figure 6.3.19 Colors used to Indicate the Level of Safety (Calumpit Municipality, Pampanga River basin, Philippines) (MDRRMO: Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office) ...... 6-37 Figure 6.3.20 Timeline Scenario (Inundation Chart) ...... 6-38

Figure 7.2.1 Overall Picture of Training on the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model ...... 7-1 Figure 7.2.2 Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing Lectured on the RRI Model ...... 7-15 Figure 7.2.3 Mr. Myo Tun Oo Lectured on the RRI Model ...... 7-15 Figure 7.2.4 Conferment of a Certificate on the RRI Model ...... 7-15 Figure 7.2.5 Group Photo ...... 7-15 Figure 7.3.1 Personal Computer (Dell Precision Tower 3420 XCTO) ...... 7-17 Figure 7.3.2 Large Size Printer (Canon Large Format Printer iPF-771) ...... 7-17 Figure 7.5.1 Photos of the Training on Flood Disaster Risk Assessment from 30 March to 1 April 2016 ...... 7-19 Figure 7.6.1 Field Survey in Nyaung Don Area (flood mark survey) ...... 7-20 Figure 7.6.2 Field Survey in Nyaung Don Area (Recording the location of a flood mark with a handy GPS) ...... 7-20

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Abbreviation TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

Acronyms and Abbreviations

Abbreviation Formal Nomenclature AADMER ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response ACC Flow Accumulation ADB Asian Development Bank ADCP Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler ADPC Asian Disaster Preparedness Center AIRBM Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project ALOS Advanced Land Observing Satellite ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer AW3D ALOS World 3D AWS Automatic Weather Stations CDC City Development Committee CIESIN Center for International Earth Science Information Network CPU Central Processing Unit Department of Agricultural Planning DAP (later re-named as Department of Planning) Department of Planning DOP (re-named of former Department of Agricultural Planning) DEM Digital Elevation Model DF/R Draft Final Report DIR Flow Direction DMH Department of Meteorology and Hydrology DSM Digital Surface Model DTM Digital Terrain Model Department of Urban and Housing Development DUHD (re-named of former Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development) DWIR Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems EOS Earth Observation Satellite ETOPO Earth Topography EWS Early Warning System FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FD Forestry Department FFD Flood Forecasting Division (Pakistan) GAD General Administration Department GDEM Global Digital Elevation Model GIS Geographic Information System GLCC Global Land Cover Characterization GLCNMO Global Land Cover by National Mapping Organizations GPS Global Positioning System GSM Global System for Mobile Communications GSMaP Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation GTS Global Telecommunication System GUI Graphical User Interface HD Hydrological Division HEC-RAS Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System HEC-HMS Hydrologic Engineering Centers Hydrologic Modeling System HFA Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development HSHD (later re-named as Department of Urban and Housing Development) HydroSHEDS Hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle Elevation Derivatives at xii International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. PASCO CORPORATION

TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Abbreviation Part II Flood Management in Republic of the Union of Myanmar

Abbreviation Formal Nomenclature multiple Scales International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the auspices of ICHARM UNESCO IC/R Inception Report Irrigation Department ID (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department) IDM Integrated Data Management IFAS Integrated Flood Analysis System IIT Indian Institute of Technology IMD India Meteorological Department INGO International Non-Governmental Organization IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission ISCGM International Steering Committee for Global Mapping ISO International Organization for Standardization IT Information Technology IT/R Interim Report Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department IWUMD (formed by merging former Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department) JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JEN Japan Emergency NGO JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JMA Japan Meteorological Agency JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center JWA Japan Water Agency KOICA Korea International Cooperation Agency LCD Liquid Crystal Display MAPDRR Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction MCDC Mandalay City Development Committee MD Ministry of Defense MDPA Myanmar Disaster Preparedness Agency METI Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (Japan) MES Myanmar Engineering Society MGS Myanmar Geosciences Society MIMU Myanmar Information Management Unit MITT Myanmar International Terminals Thilawa MjTD Myanmar Japan Thilawa Development Limited MLIT Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (Japan) Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation MOAI (later re-named as Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation) Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation MOALI (re-named of former Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation) MOC Ministry of Construction MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Ministry of Environmental Conservation and Forestry (later superseded by MOECF Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation) MONREC Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation MOSWRR Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement Ministry of Transport MOT (later re-named as Ministry of Transport and Communications) MOTC Ministry of Transport and Communications

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Abbreviation TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

Abbreviation Formal Nomenclature (re-named of former Ministry of Transport) MPA Myanmar Port Authority MPT Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications MRCS Myanmar Red Cross Society MSDC Mon State Development Committee MSWRR Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement MTU Mandalay Technological University MWTDC Mawlamyine Township Development Committee NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NGO Non-Governmental Organization NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NTT Nippon Telegraph and Telephone PALSAR Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department PTC Panel on Tropical Cyclone RID Royal Irrigation Department (Thailand) RRD Relief and Resettlement Department RRI Model Rainfall Runoff Inundation Model SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SATREPS Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development SD Survey Department TSEZ Thilawa Special Economic Zone SLRD Settlement and Land Records Department SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission SSB Single Side Band TA Technical Assistance TDC Township Development Committee TOR Terms of Reference TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TV Television TWLMS Telemetry Water Level Measurement Stations UHSLC University of Hawaii Sea Level Center UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNITAR United Nations Institute for Training and Research UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNOSAT UNITAR-Operational Satellite Applications Programme USFS United States Forest Service USGS United States Geological Survey WFP World Food Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization Water Resources Utilization Department WRUD (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department) WSRF Web Services Resource Framework (Model) YCDC Yangon City Development Committee YTU Yangon Technological University

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TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Measurement units Part II Flood Management

Measurement Units

(Length) (Time) mm : millimeter (s) s, sec : second (s) cm : centimeter (s) min : minute (s) m : meter (s) h, hr : hour (s) km : kilometer (s) d, dy : day (s) y, yr : year (s) (Area) mm2 : square millimeter (s) (Volume) cm2 : square centimeter (s) cm3 : cubic centimeter (s) m2 : square meter (s) m3 : cubic meter (s) km2 : square kilometer (s) l, ltr : liter (s) ha : hectare (s) MCM : million cubic meter (s)

(Weight) (Speed/Velocity) g, gr : gram (s) cm/s : centimeter per second kg : kilogram (s) m/s : meter per second ton : ton (s) km/h : kilometer per hour

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TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Executive Summary Part II Flood Management

Executive Summary

This Final Report presents the activities and outputs made in the TA-8456 Part II project during the period from July 2014 to November 2016 with regard to all six work items prescribed in the Inception Report of the TA-8456 Part II including: i) Needs Assessment; ii) Data Collection; iii) Hydro-Meteorological Analysis; iv) Flood and Storm Surge Risk Assessment; v) Business Plan for the DMH; and vi) Capacity Development. This report consists of eight chapters. A summary of each chapter is presented as follows:

1. Chapter 1: Introduction

The Capacity Development Technical Assistance (TA) project of the Asian Development Bank (ADB),

¥¤¦§¨©  £ ¤    ¢   ¨  ¤¤  ¢  ¡¢ £¤ -8456), aimed to promote sustainable urban development in Myanmar cities by building the institutional capacity of local authorities, leading to the prioritized needs-based provision of essential infrastructure. TA-8456 is composed of two parts: Part I: Urban Management and Part II: Flood Management. The Ministry of Construction (MOC), through the Department of Human Settlements and Housing Development (later re-named as Department of Urban and Housing Development), is the executing agency of TA-8456. The Urban Research and Development Institute, MOC, and the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Ministry of Transport (later re-named as Ministry of Transport and Communications, or MOTC), are the implementing agencies for Part I and Part II, respectively. In this report, the activities of TA-8456 Part II: Flood Management is presented. The main objectives of TA-8456 Part II are: 1) Hydro-meteorological analysis related to floods and storm surges; 2) Flood and storm surge risk assessment; 3) Capacity development of the DMH; and 4) Capacity development of organizations relevant to flood and storm surge risk assessment. The target areas of the Part II component are Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine, which are the three large cities of Myanmar (see Figure-1). Table-1 shows the outputs of TA-8456 Part II, which was revised from the initial Terms Of Reference (TOR) at the TA Inception Mission in September 2014. The detailed contents of activities for each output are described in Chapter 2 to Chapter 7. In addition, the recommendations for the outreach process of TA-8456 Part II are presented

in Chapter 8. Ayeyarwady River Basin  TA-8456 Part II  Consultant Team (hereinafter Mandalay referred to as the consultant team) is composed of Thanlwin River two parties: Part II-A: International Centre for Basin Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI), and Part II-B: CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. (CTII), CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. (CTIE), and Yangon PASCO CORPORATION. The TA-8456 Part II project was carried out under close cooperation Mawlamyine between DMH and the consultant team. Source: The Consultant Team Figure-1 Target Areas of TA-8456 Part II

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Executive Summary TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

Table-1 Outputs of TA-8456 Part II Project No. Outputs Reference 1 Survey report on needs assessment for capacity development of DMH Chapter 2 Report on data collection for flood and storm surge risk assessment based on Chapter 3 2 field surveys, and revision of the work program as needed Results of RRI Model simulation and storm surge analysis conducted with the Chapter 4 3 participation of DMH staff 4 Institutional Sustainability of Capacity Development 4-1 Training for DMH officers on the RRI Model and storm surge analysis Chapter 7 Training activities developed for DMH considering the possibility of training of Chapter 7 4-2 trainers 4-3 Business plan developed for DMH Chapter 6 5 Flood Risk Assessment 5-1 Flood and storm-surge risk assessment Chapter 4 and 5 5-2 Development and implementation of training programs Chapter 7

At the inception meeting held on 16 September 2014, it was agreed by the participants to establish a TA-8456 Part II Implementation Network. This Implementation Network is headed by the Director General of DMH and composed of representatives from organizations relevant to flood and storm surge risk assessment to facilitate inter-organizational coordination and provision of policy guidance during the implementation of activities under TA-8456 Part II. The member organizations of the Part II Implementation Network are as follows:

¡ Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ministry of Transport (later re-named as Ministry of Transport and Communications)

¡ Relief and Resettlement Department, Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement

¡ Irrigation Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department under Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation)

¡ Survey Department, Ministry of Environmental Conservation and Forestry (later superseded by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation)

¡ Myanmar Port Authority, Ministry of Transport

¡ General Administration Department, Ministry of Home Affairs

¡ Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development, Ministry of Construction (later re-named as Department of Urban and Housing Development)

¡ Department of Agriculture Planning, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (later re-named as Department of Planning under Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation)

¡ Water Resources Utilization Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department under Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation)

¡ Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems, Ministry of Transport (later re-named as Ministry of Transport and Communications)

¡ Yangon City Development Committee, Yangon Regional Government

¡ Mandalay City Development Committee, Mandalay Regional Government

¡ Mawlamyine District Government, Mon State Government

¡ Myanmar Engineering Society

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Executive Summary TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

As a result of the needs assessment, the consultant team prepared suggestions to DMH for further improvement of their activities on flood and storm surge risk assessment and capacity development, and also recommendations to organizations relevant to risk assessment for future improvement on their activities. The following is a brief summary of suggestions and recommendations.

[Suggestions to DMH] Needs assessment for DMH focused on how DMH should improve their activities, especially the activities on flood forecasting and flood hazard mapping. The following suggestions were made: 1. System and technology (Flood forecasting and warning)

¡ Data sharing with other organizations;

¡ Establishment of a data management center;

¡ Installation of automatic weather stations (AWS);

¡ Upgrading of the existing observation stations;

¡ Capacity building on hydrological/hydraulic models; and

¡ Improvement of the warning messages with understandable information using graphics and figures.

(Flood hazard mapping)

¡ Review and improvement of training for flood hazard mapping

¡ Cooperation with local governments for data collection;

¡ Collection of local disaster data; and

¡ Systematic hazard analysis.

(Operation and maintenance)

¡ Establishment of rules and regulations on O&M;

¡ Training of officers for O&M;

¡ Allocation of a regular budget for O&M; and

¡ Establishment of a regular maintenance scheme.

(Equipment and facilities for headquarters and field offices)

¡ Constant review of the current system for improvement.

2. Human resources (Knowledge and technical skills)

¡ Review of the current knowledge and technical skills and identification of issues for improvement to fulfill the roles and responsibilities of DMH;

¡ Establishment and enhancement of continuous training programs;

¡ Introduction of advanced hydrological and hydraulic modeling; and

¡ Participation in training held by international organizations.

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TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Executive Summary Part II Flood Management

(Experience)

¡ Review of required field experience and development of strategies to gain such experiences.

(Qualification)

¡ Identification of required knowledge; and

¡ Provision of training programs for officers to increase knowledge through certificate courses, hands-on training and on-the-job training.

3. Institutional setup (Roles and responsibility)

¡ Identification of important actions to fulfill the roles and responsibilities of DMH.

(Organizational structure)

¡ Review of the current human resources and formulation of future plans; and

¡ Review and enhancement of the functions of regional DMH.

(Budget)

¡ Review of the current budget allocation and future prospect for activities in short-term and long-term plans.

(Planning)

¡ Identification of short-term and long-term targets.

(Liaison)

¡ Review and enhancement of the current coordination and collaboration mechanisms;

¡ Clarification and regular review of responsibilities, roles and tasks of relevant organizations;

¡ Examination and enhancement of the communication system with relevant organizations and identification of issues/problems; and

¡ Examination and enhancement of the communication systems with communities and identification of issues/problems.

(Training of officers)

¡ Enhancement of the consecutive training scheme; and

¡ Enhancement of hands-on and on-the-job training.

(Publications)

¡ Review and enhancement of publication of flood report forms, methodology etc.

[Recommendations for improvement on risk assessment] Needs assessment of organizations relevant to risk assessment was conducted to investigate their current activities on water-related disaster management and how each organization had conducted risk assessment and utilized its results. According to the results of the questionnaire survey, several

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Executive Summary TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

organizations responded that they had conducted or had a plan to conduct risk assessment to identify risk areas; however, they had rarely assessed damage caused by hazards such as floods and storm surges due to the lack of in-house expertise and skills in damage assessment. With this in mind, the following recommendations were made:

1. Basic framework for risk assessment

¡ Formulate strategies of capacity development activities about risk assessment to acquire skills and knowledge;

¡ Prepare guidelines and manuals for risk assessment and formulate a strategy for flood disaster risk reduction;

¡ Secure financial and human resources to conduct and utilize risk assessment; and

¡ Systematize and stipulate the process of risk assessment to guarantee the sustainability of risk assessment and the quality of its results.

2. Data management and processing

¡ Establish a mechanism to collect damage data after a disaster and improve the existing database system to archive collected data in the form of electronic data;

¡ Develop risk indicators which describe the correlation of intensity of a hazard with resulting damage by arranging and processing collected damage data and hazard records;

¡ Enhance the cooperative scheme among the owner organizations of damage and hazard data, and encourage them to share collected data for the development of risk indicators; and

¡ Improve the existing data collection system (telemetry, radar, etc.) and the transfer system of real-time data on hydro-meteorological and tidal information.

3. Utilization of risk assessment

¡ Utilize risk indicators in risk assessment to simulate prospects of future damage risk;

¡ Develop risk maps to share the information; and

¡ Formulate a strategy for flood disaster risk reduction based on evidence from risk assessment, and compare proposed options in effectiveness.

3. Chapter 3: Data Collection For the implementation of two activities, i.e., hydrological/hydraulic modeling for RRI Model simulation and storm surge analysis and flood and storm surge risk assessment, a data collection survey was conducted. The consultant team prepared a list of data to be collected for hydrological/hydraulic modeling and

flood and storm surge risk assessment. The list was composed of two types of data including ¢ basic

¢ £ data,£ which are critical information for modeling and assessment, and optional data, which provide additional but useful information to improve the quality of assessment results and expand the targets of risk assessment. Subsequently, required basic information was identified and then collected from DMH and related organizations in order to generate the initial level of output from hydro-meteorological analysis with the RRI Model and the storm surge model. This output can serve for the preparation of the initial product of flood hazard maps and the basic information for

developing training programs under TA-8456 Part II. The consultant team also procured a finer Digital

¦¥   ¤  ¨¥¥ ¦ ¢£ ¤¥¦§¨© for the three cities to improve the accuracy of elevation data.

In addition, the commercial population data (30 arc-second grid (approximately 1 km) data) called

  ¥ ¨¥  ¥ ¨© ¨©¨ £ ¢¨  ¨ for Myanmar were also procured for flood risk assessment.

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Executive Summary TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management

inundation analysis. The telemetry stations will also serve for real-time data collection and accumulation, which will contribute to flood forecasting using the hydrological and hydraulic simulation model and further improvement of the model itself.

¡ River discharge data observed by DMH at the water level stations can be used for flood forecasting. Rating curves at each station are prepared by DMH, but DMH uses propeller-type current meters for flow velocity observation to calculate discharge volume, and observation during a high-flow period is not carried out due to the safety of surveyors. Therefore discharge volume for high flow is estimated by extrapolation using rating curves. For further improvement of the accuracy of discharge volume estimation during a flood, high-flow measurement by float or Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) is recommended.

¡ Regarding tidal data, DMH does not possess both hourly astronomical tide data and observed tide data, which are necessary for the calibration of the storm surge model. The only source of such data is the Myanmar Port Authority (MPA), which provides DMH with paper-based high/low tide data (4 values per a day). In this TA, the consultant team created hourly astronomical data by interpolating available high/low tide data, but it is desirable to use actual hourly tidal data. Therefore, it is recommended to develop a system for collecting tidal data.

¡ Collected data/information on past flood damage and socio-economical information are essential for risk assessment. However, they are not accumulated enough for risk assessment; therefore globally available data of key parameters such as land cover, cropping area, population distribution, etc., are used tentatively. Establishment of a mechanism to collect and accumulate damage data is recommended.

¡ To compensate low data availability, data and experience obtained from other countries were also applied to flood risk assessment in Myanmar (i.e. a risk indicator (damage curve) of rice developed in the Philippines). While using such information with verification of the applicability, continuous efforts are required to collect data for risk assessment, such as disaster records (flood and storm surge), damage data of agriculture, housing and infrastructure, etc., to develop an original damage curve for each item in Myanmar. Therefore, it is recommended to collect data and information on hazards and damage during and after a flood event and it is also recommended to establish a digital data-archiving system for accumulating historical data for analysis.

4. Chapter 4: Hydro-Meteorological Analysis In this chapter, the development process of flood inundation simulation models with the RRI Model and storm surge simulation with Myers formula is described. ADB TA-8456 Part II featured the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) Model developed by ICHARM, which is a grid-based distributed runoff model capable of simulating rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simultaneously (see Figure-4). Myers formula was employed for estimation of distribution of air pressure that becomes the basic information for storm surge simulation. Figure-5 shows the mechanism of storm surge.

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TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Executive Summary Part II Flood Management

surge simulation, respectively. The results of flood inundation and coastal inundation due to storm surges were then utilized in risk assessment (described in Chapter 5) in order to create flood hazard maps and conduct flood risk assessment with a 100-year flood for each target city.

Figure-7 Flood Inundation Area in Yangon Figure-8 Storm Surge Map (Cyclone Nargis 2008)

5. Chapter 5: Flood and Strom Surge Risk Assessment In this chapter, the methodology used in this project on flood and storm surge risk assessment is described. Flood and storm surge risk assessment comprises two components; hazard assessment and disaster risk assessment. Disaster risk assessment is undertaken based on the result of hazard assessment. Risk assessment contributes to the improvement of preparedness and resilience of communities against disaster risk by identifying the magnitude and nature of risk. Hazard assessment shows possible hazard conditions in the future (e.g. flood inundation area and depth), while disaster risk assessment is to estimate damage caused by hazardous events. The result of flood hazard assessment is shown in the form of flood hazard map. Disaster risk assessment shows prospects of damage caused by a hazard; therefore effectiveness of counter measures to reduce flood damage can be quantified by comparing simulated damage before and after the implementation of countermeasures, which is used for cost-benefit analysis to assess the effectiveness of preventive investment.

[Flood Hazard Mapping] In this TA, flood hazard maps were developed for the past largest recorded flood event (flood of 2007 for Yangon, flood of 2004 for Mandalay, flood of 2013 for Mawlmayine) and a 100-year flood case. The detailed flood hazard maps were also prepared with a different map scale (1:25,000) to show more detailed hazard conditions to identify inundation areas and roads for evacuation. Figure-9 to Figure-11 show the flood hazard maps for Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlmayine.

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(Map Scale: 1/100,000 for entire map) (Map Scale: 1/25,000 for detail map) Figure-9 Flood Hazard Map for Yangon in the Case of a 100-Year Flood (seventh version)

(Map Scale: 1/100,000 for entire map) (Map Scale: 1/25,000 for detail map) Figure-10 Flood Hazard Map for Mandalay in the Case of a 100-Year Flood (fourth version) xxviii International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. PASCO CORPORATION

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(Map Scale: 1/100,000 for entire map) (Map Scale: 1/25,000 for detail map) Figure-11 Flood Hazard Map for Mawlamyine in the Case of a 100-Year Flood (fourth version)

[Coastal Flood Hazard Mapping] Coastal flood hazard maps were prepared in the same way as flood hazard maps. Coastal flood hazard maps were prepared, considering two different cases: (i) one case concerns both storm surges and a flood from the river, and (ii) the other case only the effect of storm surges. The magnitude of storm surges equivalent to that of Cyclone Nargis was employed in preparation for a coastal flood hazard map in Yangon. Regarding Mawlamyine, a virtual cyclone track was set for producing a coastal flood hazard map for Mawlamyine through discussions with the DMH meteorological division. Figure-12 shows the coastal flood hazard map of Yangon.

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[Summary of Findings] The results of disaster risk assessment can be used to formulate policies and strategies for flood disaster risk reduction. The following are points to be noted in developing flood hazard maps and conducting disaster risk assessment.

¡ Basic conditions of flood hazard maps (i.e. area, scale, target hazard, contents, etc.) should be discussed and confirmed among government agencies concerned based on available information and scientific tools.

¡ Flood hazard maps should be formulated through consultation and confirmation with stakeholders concerned. Especially when the preliminary information on past inundation is limited and the accuracy of topographic data has a certain margin, the calibration of simulation results to past inundation information is essential. Conditions and limitations of accuracy depend on data availability, of which stakeholders should also be informed.

¡ Data management and capacity development are key challenges in flood hazard mapping.

¢ Data management (collection, accumulation and sharing) of the following data should be enhanced for effective flood hazard mapping.

£ Topographic data

£ Rainfall data

£ River flow data (discharge volume and water level)

£ Tidal level data

£ Drainage facility (location, elevation and cross-section)

£ Past inundation record

¢ Capacity development of related organizations should be improved to develop and utilize flood hazard maps at the following levels.

£ Institutional level (law, roles and responsibilities (national, regional and local))

£ Organizational level (human resources, system and equipment)

£ Individual level (knowledge, skill, experience)

¤ For development of risk indicators for risk assessment, collection of data/information on past hazards and damage is very important. It is thus necessary to collect such data/information as much as possible and establish a database system to develop risk indicators for disaster risk assessment.

6. Chapter 6: Business Plan

In this chapter, the process of formulating a business plan for DMH is described. For the development

§¨ ©             ¥    ¥  ¥¦ , responsibilities and needs of DMH, and expectations of other organizations and stakeholders to DMH. The primal roles of DMH for disaster prevention and mitigation are also described in Myanmar Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR) published in 2012. The consultant team investigated MAPDRR and the results of needs survey (Chapter 2), and identified the topics to be focused in the business plan of DMH. In addition, an urgent questionnaire survey regarding Cyclone Komen (2015) was conducted in order to investigate the actual actions taken by and explore the needs of the member organizations of the Part II Implementation Network during the flood events. The consultant team discussed the results of the abovementioned initial study with DMH, and prepared topics to be covered in the business plan of DMH as follows:

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¡ Enhancement of meteorological and hydrological monitoring: Improvement of the meteorological and hydrological monitoring system is indispensable in order to meet the needs of DMH; for example, installing new observation stations, updating existing stations, allocating an O&M budget, etc.

¡ Utilization of satellite images: Since the vulnerable area to water related disasters is huge in Myanmar while the existing in situ observation system is limited, it is proposed to utilize advanced technology such as satellite products for disaster risk assessment. Satellite images can be used to identify flood inundation areas and locations of landslide, which can facilitate response actions in a timely manner.

¡ Assessment and mitigation of landslide disaster risk: In the wake of Cyclone Komen (2015), the need for identification of landslide disaster risk was recognized. Such analysis requires the cooperation of several parties of different expertise and government organizations including DMH.

¡ Risk reduction by a timeline plan: A timeline plan is effective to show necessary actions required of each responsible organization according to the development of a cyclone and resulting flood conditions. Such a plan provides stakeholders with information on lead time available for preparation and the timing of response activities to take. DMH has a role to track cyclones and forecast flood conditions; therefore it is beneficial for DMH as well as other stakeholders to prepare a timeline plan beforehand so that stakeholders can take necessary actions based on the plan and real-time information on a cyclone and flood provided by DMH.

7. Chapter 7: Capacity Development This chapter summarizes capacity development activities including the development and implementation of training programs for DMH and ID, and introductory sessions on flood risk assessment for DMH, ID and organizations relevant to flood risk assessment. The expected outcome of the training activities was an enhanced capacity of DMH and related organizations for 1) hydrological/hydraulic modeling for RRI Model simulation and storm surge analysis and 2) flood and storm surge risk assessment. The consultant team conducted a series of training programs on hydrological and hydraulic modeling from an introductory level to an advanced level. The advanced-level training was specifically provided for selected candidates of DMH, who were expected to become trainers on the RRI Model and the storm surge model in the future. Upon request from the Irrigation Department (ID), the representatives of ID also participated in all training programs. Table-2 and Table-3 summarize the training programs on the RRI Model and the storm surge model in terms of the training methods, the outcomes/results of each training session, and the number of participants. The training on risk assessment was organized in a workshop style, and the basic concept of risk assessment was introduced to DMH and organizations relevant to risk assessment, which are member organizations of the Part II Implementation Network. In addition, the advanced training program on risk assessment was developed for DMH and ID officers and implemented the training program for the participants to learn the process and methodology for disaster damage simulation.

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Table-2 Summary of Training Programs (TM-1 to TM-4) Program/Date Training Method Outcomes/Results Participants TV-conference 1) Trainees from DMH and ID learned basic DMH: 9 (RRI trainees: TM-1 system/ knowledge on hydrology and the RRI Model; and 9)

supplementary 2) Preparatory interview/questionnaire survey was ID: 4 19 December, lectures at ADB Nay conducted with trainer candidates to evaluate the

2014

¦ ££ §¤ §   ¢§ ¦ ¢¡¢¦¥¤ Pyi Taw office ¡ ¢£¤¥¦¥¡¢§¤¨© 1) The trainees learned the basic steps for DMH: 20 (RRI developing a flood inundation simulation model trainees: 12, storm using the RRI Model and improving its accuracy; surge trainees: 3, and TM-2 Lectures at DMH 2) The trainees learned the basic steps for observers: 5) Nay Pyi Taw office, developing a storm surge simulation model using the ID: 3 16 to 20 hands-on training & Storm Surge Model and improving its accuracy; and February, 2015 group discussions 3) The trainees learned how to utilize simulation results obtained from the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model. 1) The assignment on the RRI Model and the Storm DMH: 17 (RRI trainer Surge Model given at TM-2 in February 2015 was candidates: 4, storm reviewed; surge trainer TM-3 Lectures at DMH 2) The trainees learned the steps for utilizing the candidates: 3, Nay Pyi Taw office, results from RRI Model simulation; observers: 10) 12 to 14 May, hands-on training & 3) The trainees learned the basic steps for ID: 3 2015 group discussions developing a Storm Surge Model; and 4) The trainees learned the basic concepts on risk assessment. 1) The assignment on the RRI Model and the Storm DMH: 18 (RRI trainer Surge Model given at TM-3 in May 2015 was candidates: 4, storm Lectures at DMH reviewed; surge trainer TM-4 Nay Pyi Taw office, 2) The trainees learned the steps for utilizing candidates: 3, hands-on training & simulation results from the RRI Model and the observers: 11) 15 to 17 June, individual training Storm Surge Model; and ID: 3 2015 for trainer 3) The trainees learned and practiced hazard candidates assessment using the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model.

Table-3 Summary of Follow-up Training Program/Date Training Method Outcomes/Results Participants 1) The remaining sessions of TM-4 were offered to DMH: 10 (RRI trainer the trainer candidates of DMH and ID; candidates: 4, storm Lectures at DMH 2) The participants learned real-time operation of surge trainer Follow-up Nay Pyi Taw office, flood forecasting using the RRI Model; candidates: 3, Training (1) hands-on training & 3) The participants learned the methodology of observers: 3)

individual tutoring hydrological statistical analysis; and ID: 3 12, 13 & 16 for the trainer 4) The participants learned the basic steps of the October, 2015 candidates Storm Surge Model by developing several models based on actual phenomena, such as Cyclones Komen (2015), Mara (2012) and Giri (2010). 1)The trainer candidates of DMH and ID reviewed DMH: 8 (RRI trainer draft reference manuals on the RRI Model and the candidates: 4, storm Lectures at DMH Follow-up Storm Surge Model given at the follow-up training surge trainer Nay Pyi Taw office, Training (2) in October 2015; candidates: 3, hands-on training & 2) The participants reviewed the process of modeling observer: 1) individual tutoring 25 to 28 with the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model; ID: 3 for the trainer January 2016 3) The participants learned how to prepare coastal candidates flood hazard maps using the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model.

Follow-up Lectures at DMH 1)The trainer candidates of DMH and ID reviewed DMH: 16 (RRI trainer Training (3) Nay Pyi Taw office, the process of modeling with the RRI Model and the candidates: 4, storm hands-on training & Storm Surge Model; surge trainer

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Program/Date Training Method Outcomes/Results Participants 30, 31 March & individual tutoring 2) The trainer candidates made a presentation on the candidates: 3, 1 and 4 to 6 for the trainer results of flood inundation analysis in Nyaung Don observers: 9) April, 2016 candidates Area and Kale Area, and all participants discussed ID: 2 methodologies to improve their models; 3) The participants learned how to prepare flood hazard maps with ArcGIS; and 4) The participants also attended hands-on training on coastal flood hazard mapping. 1) The trainer candidates of DMH and ID (for the DMH: 6 (RRI trainer RRI Model) prepared presentation materials for the candidates: 3, storm Follow-up Individual tutoring final workshop on 23 May 2016; surge trainer Training (4) for the trainer 2) The trainer candidates of DMH (for the Storm candidates: 3) candidates in Surge Model) confirmed the process of modeling ID: 2 19 to 22 May, preparation of the and prepared a presentation for the final workshop; 2016 final workshop and 3) All trainer candidates practiced presentations for the final workshop.

Recommendations for future training for the operation of the RRI Model and the Storm Surge Model and for risk assessment are listed below:

¡ The trainees should have basic knowledge of hydrology and hydraulics beforehand to fully understand the contents and should be equipped with basic computer skills for modeling.

¡ The trainees should understand the characteristics of data (source, resolution, margin of error, etc.) that define the meaning of simulation results, and continuous efforts should be made to improve the quality of data, which will result in upgrading the quality of simulation.

¢ At present, GIS software is indispensable for hydrological/hydraulic modeling and preparation of maps, etc. Therefore, the trainees need to learn more about GIS with authorized applications. If it is difficult to obtain and use authorized GIS software, free GIS software including QGIS and DIVA GIS can be used for modeling and mapping.

¢ The training course should be prepared based on the training programs developed in this TA for junior engineers to enhance the capacity and sustain and improve the quality of training itself.

8. Chapter 8: Recommendations Based on the findings obtained through the activities of TA-8456 Part II, recommendations for DMH

and recommendations for implementation network organizations are prepared. Recommendations for

¦§ ¨ © ©©  ©§¨¦  ¦  ¦§  

£¤¥ Improvement and utilization of flood hazard analysis , F

and Capacity development . Recommendations for implementation network organizations are on

§ © ¨¨  ©    £ § ¦ ¦¨   ¦ © ©   ©§¦  ©  ©§  ¨§ ¤ ¦ ¦¨¨  ¦  ! ¦ ¨

  © §¦ © "  ¨  ©§ £  ¦ ¨§ # ¨$  ©  !¨ . Since the scope of this TA mainly focuses on capacity development to produce and utilize flood hazard and disaster risk information, the topics identified as recommendations are expected to be further investigated and developed by the Myanmar Government to enhance the effectiveness of flood management for flood disaster risk reduction in Myanmar.

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background 1.1.1 Disaster Condition in Myanmar

The Republic of the Union of Myanmar, the largest country in mainland Southeast Asia, is located

¢ ¡ ¢ ¡ ¢ ¡ ¢ between 9¡ 32 N to 28 31 N latitude and 92 10 E to 101 11 E longitude. Most of its large cities are situated at strategic locations along the four major rivers in the country, i.e., Ayeyarwady, Chindwin, Sittoung and Thanlwin. The country has a tropical climate with three seasons: rainy (mid-May to mid-October), winter (mid-October to mid-February), and summer (mid-February to mid-May). There is a large variation in average annual precipitation in the country. The average annual rainfall in the dry zone (e.g. Mandalay) ranges from 600 to 1,400 mm. The coastal regions (e.g. Mawlamyine) receive an annual rainfall of 4,000 to 5,600 mm1 on average. Myanmar suffers from water-related disasters almost every year. Among them, the most severe ones were caused by cyclones. Cyclone Nargis in 2008 affected more than 2.4 million people including 84,537 dead and 53,836 missing. The total economic damage was estimated at 4.1 billion USD2. This cyclone affected not only people and houses, but also local livelihoods including the crop yields of the year. More recently, Cyclone Komen in August 2015 caused flood, storm-surge and landslide disasters, affecting a large part of the country, especially states and regions of Chin, Rakhine, Magway, Sagaing, Bago and Ayeyarwady. Under these circumstances, the hydro-meteorological services of the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) for providing reliable and timely information on floods and cyclones have been on high demand. Floods and storms are the cause of major disasters in Myanmar according to a global disaster database, EM-DAT (2000 to 2015), accounting for 47% and 17%, respectively, of all disasters. Landslides also occur frequently. Floods often cause loss of lives, property and livelihoods, and cause damage to critical infrastructure, and also lead to health-related problems. Flood damage to agriculture is particularly severe as the agriculture sector accounts for 40.2% of the GDP of the country2. Table 1.1.1 shows recent flood, storm and landslide disasters in Myanmar. Figure 1.1.1 shows the flood inundation areas caused by Cyclone Nargis in May 2008 and the maximum inundation that combines observed inundation areas in the region from 1999 to 2006. Figure 1.1.2 shows the flood inundation areas caused by Cyclone Komen in July-August 2015.

Table 1.1.1 Disasters related to Flood and Storm Surge in Myanmar3. Total Disaster Total Affected Injured Homeless Total damage Year Occurrence Affected type deaths* People (1) (2) (3) ('000$) (1)+(2)+(3) 2001 1 51 3,750 3,750 N/A 2002 1 21 50,000 50,000 N/A 2006 1 25 10,000 10,000 N/A 2007 4 5 162,317 110 4,237 166,664 N/A 2011 1 151 35,734 35,734 1,700 Flood 2012 1 2 85,000 85,000 N/A 2013 1 7 73,300 73,300 N/A 2014 2 40,000 40,000 N/A 2015 3 133 9,014,000 9,014,000 119,000

2004 1 236 25,000 25,000 688 Storm 2006 1 34 60,075 31 60,106 N/A

1 Hazard Profile of Myanmar, Report prepared by DMH and other Institutes, 2009 2 Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR), Relief and Resettlement Department, 2012 3

EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database £ www.emdat.be, University Catholique de Louvain, Brussels (Belgium) (Accessed 15 April 2016)

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Total Disaster Total Affected Injured Homeless Total damage Year Occurrence Affected type deaths* People (1) (2) (3) ('000$) (1)+(2)+(3) **2008 1 138,366 2,400,000 20,000 2,420,000 4,000,000 2010 1 45 260,000 49 260,049 57,000 2015 1 3 N/A

2005 1 17 16 16 N/A 2009 1 24 1,351 1,351 N/A 2010 1 68 145,000 145,000 N/A Land 2013 1 16 N/A slide 2015 2 38 1,200 1,200 N/A

26 139,242 12,336,77 20,206 34,187 12,391,170 4,178,388 All Disaster 7 *Total deaths= sum of death and missing, **Cyclone Nargis

Source: Dartmouth College. http://reliefweb.int/map/myanmar/myanmar-cyclone-nargis-rapid-response-inundation-map-05-may-2008 (Red colored area: flood inundation area as of 5 May 2008, and blue colored area: maximum observed inundation area including flood events that occurred from 1999 to 2006)

Figure 1.1.1 Flood Inundation Areas in Myanmar Delta Areas (MODIS flood inundation map).

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Data Source: Myanmar Information Management Unit Source: Management (MIMU) InformationData Unit Myanmar

(2) Kale Township, Sagaing Region

Flood Inundation Areas in Myanmar (2015) (2015) in Myanmar Areas Inundation Flood

Figure 1.1.2 Figure

(1) Sittanug LowerRiver Basin and Ayeyarwady Basin

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Floods in Myanmar can be categorized as follows: - Riverine floods: floods along rivers and in river deltas; - Flash floods: floods in the upper reach of a river system, often in a mountainous area, caused by heavy rainfall striking at a head water region for 1-3 days; - Urban floods: floods in an urban area due to a combination of factors such as cloudburst, saturated soil, poor infiltration rates and poorly built or inadequately maintained drainage systems (such as blocked drains); - Coastal floods: floods due to cyclones and storm surges in coastal areas.

1.1.2 Outline of TA-8456

This Capacity Development Technical Assistance (TA) project of the Asian Development Bank

¥¤¦§ ¨©  £¤    ¢     ¨  ¤¤ (ADB), ¡ ¢£¤

(TA-   , aimed to promote sustainable urban development in Myanmar cities by strengthening the institutional capacity of local authorities in leading the prioritized needs-based provision of essential infrastructure. The TA was composed of two parts: Part I: Urban Management and Part II: Flood Management. The Ministry of Construction (MOC), through the Department of Human Settlements and Housing Development (later re-named as the Department of Urban and Housing Development), was the Executing Agency. The Urban Research and Development Institute, MOC, and the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Ministry of Transport (MOT) (later re-named as the Ministry of Transport and Communications), were the Implementing Agency for Part I and Part II, respectively. Part I for urban management prioritized the development and effective management of six cities (Yangon, Mandalay, Mawlamyine, Pathein, Lashio, and Monywa) to stimulate balanced, decentralized economic growth. On the other hand, Part II for flood management focused on three cities (Yangon, Mandalay, and Mawlamyine) among six cities. The TA was designed to develop the capacity of local, regional, and central government officers to plan, budget, and prepare for multi-sector urban development projects, some of which may eventually be funded by multilateral

development banks, other development partners, or both.

  ! " §©   ¢¤   TA- (hereinafter the consultant team) was composed of the experts from the International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI), CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd., CTI Engineering Co., Ltd., and PASCO CORPORATION.

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1.2 Objectives of the Part II Component 1.2.1 Main Objectives The main objectives of the Part II component of TA-8456 were: (i) hydro-meteorological analysis related to floods and storm surges; (ii) flood and storm-surge risk assessment; (iii) capacity development of DMH, and (iv) capacity development of organizations relevant to flood and storm-surge risk assessment. The objectives of the Part II component are explained in Table 1.2.1. The capacity of officers in DMH and other related government organizations as appropriate were developed through training programs as well as knowledge and technology transfer of advanced hydro-meteorological analysis methods.

Table 1.2.1 Main Objectives of Part II No. Objectives Remarks - Develop a flood analysis with the RRI Model Hydro-meteorological analysis related to (hydrological and hydraulic model) and a storm surge floods in the Ayeyarwady River basin model utilizing Earth Observation Satellite (EOS) data in

1 Myanmar. Hydro-meteorological analysis related to - Target river for the flood assessment of Mawlamyine is floods and storm surges in the Yangon changed from Thanlwin River to Ataran River based on plain and the Ataran River basin the field survey on October 2014. - Develop a methodology for flood and storm-surge risk assessment. - The target cities are Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine located in the Ayeyarwady River basin, the Yangon 2 Flood and storm-surge risk assessment River-Bago River basin, and the Thanlwin (Salween) River basin, respectively.

¥ ¦§¨ ©   - Coordinate ¡¢£ ¤ Management Team so that the results of Part II could be effectively considered by Part I for their urban development planning.

- Facilitate DMH  s participation in the key steps in the process of the above-mentioned RRI simulation and storm surge analysis 3 Capacity development of DMH - Develop training activities for DMH considering the possibility of training of trainers. - Formulate a business plan for DMH. Capacity development of organizations - Develop capacity development training material to 4 involved in flood and storm-surge risk improve the capacity of organizations relevant to flood assessment and storm-surge risk assessment.

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1.2.2 Target Area The target areas of Part II were Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine, which are the three large cities of Myanmar. Table 1.2.2 shows the outline of the river basins where the three target cities are located, and Figure 1.2.1 shows a river basin map in Myanmar. Figure 1.2.2 to Figure 1.2.4 show the locations of the three target cities, respectively.

Table 1.2.2 Outline of Major River Basins in Target Areas No. River Name Specifications Country: Myanmar, China Ayeyarwady Basin area: 415,700 km2 , Length: 2,010 km 1 (Irrawaddy) Major cities: Myitkyina, Mandalay, Bhamo Major tributaries: Left: Chindwin, Mu, Right: Myitnge Country: Myanmar 2 Yangon Basin area: 18,954 km2 #1 Major cities: Yangon Country: Myanmar 3 Bago Basin area: 5,359 km2, Length: 335 km Major cities: Bago, Yangon Country: Myanmar 4 Sittoung Basin area: 34,450 km2, Length: 422 km Major cities: Nay Pyi Taw Country: Myanmar, China (Tibet), Thailand Thanlwin 5 Basin Area: 118,000 km2 (Myanmar), Length: 2,816 km (Salween) Major cities: Mawlamyine Country: Myanmar 6 Ataran Basin area: 5,830 km2 Major cities: Mawlamyine Source: No.1 to 5: "World River Dictionary, Co-editing, Takahashi, Takara, Nonomura and Haruyama, Japan", No.6: HydroSHEDS, USGS http://hydrosheds.cr.usgs.gov/index.php #1 Basin area of Yangon includes basin area of Bago area.

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Ayeyarwady River Basin

Thanlwin River Basin

Sittoung River

Bago River

Yangon River

Ataran River

Source: HydroSHEDS, USGS http://hydrosheds.cr.usgs.gov/index.php

Figure 1.2.1 Myanmar River Basin Map

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Chindwin River

Ayeyarwady River

MANDALAY

Source: The Consultant Team Figure 1.2.3 Location Map of Mandalay City

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Thanlwin River

MAWLAMYINE

Ataran River

Source: The Consultant Team Figure 1.2.4 Location Map of Mawlamyine City

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1.2.3 Target Disasters Inundation caused by river floods and storm surges was selected as target natural disasters in this TA. During the Inception Meeting on 16 September 2014, it was pointed out that floods also occur frequently within the city areas (inside levees). While the focus of TA-8456 Part II was river floods and storm surges, issues related to inland floods were mentioned in the reports of this TA so that they could be taken into consideration by subsequent projects.

1.2.4 Outputs from TA-8456 Table 1.2.3 shows the outputs from this TA based on the Terms of Reference (TOR) between the consultant team and ADB. The detailed activities are described in each chapter.

Table 1.2.3 List of Outputs No. Output Reference 1 Survey report on needs assessment for capacity development of DMH Chapter 2 Report on data collection for flood and storm-surge risk assessment Chapter 3 2 based on field surveys, and revision of the work program as needed Results of RRI simulation and storm surge analysis conducted with the Chapter 4 3 participation of DMH staff 4 Institutional Sustainability of Capacity Development 4-1 Training for DMH officers on RRI and storm surge analysis Chapter 7 Training activities developed for DMH considering the possibility of Chapter 7 4-2 training of trainers 4-3 Business plan developed for DMH Chapter 6 5 Flood Risk Assessment 5-1 Flood and storm-surge risk assessment Chapter 4 and 5 5-2 Development and implementation of training programs Chapter 7

1.2.5 Reporting Table 1.2.4 shows the reports submitted to DMH and ADB along the progress of TA-8456.

Table 1.2.4 Reports submitted to DMH and ADB No. Reports Description - Explanation of the methodology, work programs and personnel schedule, etc. 1 Inception Report - Cooperative framework (network organizations) for smooth implementation of TA - Submitted in October 2014 - Progress of TA activities as of October 2015. - Outline of the results of needs assessments for the capacity 2 Interim Report development of DMH, RRI simulation and storm surge analysis. - Submitted in November 2015 - Explanation of outputs from TA activities 3 Draft Final Report - First preliminary version was submitted in May 2016 - Second preliminary version was submitted in October 2016 - Explanation of outputs from TA activities 4 Final Report - Submitted in December 2016

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1.3 Implementation Structure 1.3.1 Main Counterparts The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) under the Ministry of Transport (MOT) (later re-named as the Ministry of Transport and Communications) was the Implementing Agency for this TA. The major responsibilities of DMH are flood monitoring, weather forecasting and issuance of early warnings. Furthermore, the Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR) refers to DMH as the lead agency in formulating flood risk maps and cyclone and storm-surge maps. DMH provides early warning information to national and local government organizations concerned,

4 ¢

the general public and the media . Hence, DMH has very important roles at the ¡ prevention stage ¢ and the ¡response stage in the disaster management cycle. It should also be noted that

meteorological and hydrological information accumulated by DMH is essential to formulate disaster ¢ risk reduction plans on the basis of the ¡ Build Back Better policy. Quantitative analysis of hazards can provide clear evidence in disaster risk assessment. In order to reduce flood disaster risk in Myanmar, DMH and other organizations relevant to flood disaster risk management should have common understanding of the nature of flood disaster risk through information sharing, which is also required to create a cooperation mechanism. The main organizations relevant to water-related disaster risk management in Myanmar other than DMH are the Relief and Resettlement Department (RRD) under the Ministry of Social Welfare, the City or Township Development Committee (CDC or TDC), the Irrigation Department (ID) under the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (later re-named as the Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation), and the General Administration Department (GAD) under the Ministry of Home Affairs. Each organization has essential responsibilities for flood disaster risk reduction. RRD, CDC and GAD are mainly in charge of rescue and recovery from disasters. During flood events, CDC and/or GAD conduct urgent field surveys in order to investigate disaster damage and the needs of affected areas. Subsequently, CDC and/or GAD provide information regarding disaster conditions to RRD, which has responsibilities for emergency response including delivery of aid supplies, rescue parties and relief funds, etc., according to information from CDC and GAD. ID is responsible for protection of agriculture sectors from flood disasters. ID itself also conducts rainfall and water-level observations for agricultural activities.

1.3.2 Cooperative Framework of TA-8456 In order to carry out the activities of TA-8456 efficiently and effectively and make best use of outputs from the TA for flood disaster risk reduction in Myanmar, a cooperative framework consisting of organizations relevant to flood disaster risk management was required. During the Inception Meeting for Part II on 16 September 2014, it was agreed to establish a TA-8456 Part II Implementation Network to be headed by the Director General of DMH. The purpose of the Network was to facilitate inter-organizational coordination and provision of policy guidance during the Part II implementation. The Network planned to meet on an ad hoc basis upon request from ADB or the consultant team. The composition of the Network confirmed in the inception meeting is as follows: [Implementation Network Organizations] i. Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ministry of Transport (later re-named as Ministry of Transport and Communications) ii. Relief and Resettlement Department, Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement

4 Country report for 39th Session of Panel on Cyclone, WMO/PTC 39 session, Myanmar Country Report, DMH, 2012.

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iii. Irrigation Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department under Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation) iv. Survey Department, Ministry of Environmental Conservation and Forestry (later superseded by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation) v. Myanmar Port Authority, Ministry of Transport vi. General Administration Department, Ministry of Home Affairs vii. Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development (later re-named as Department of Urban and Housing Development), Ministry of Construction viii. Department of Agriculture Planning, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (later re-named as Department of Planning under Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation) ix. Water Resources Utilization Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department under Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation) x. Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems, Ministry of Transport xi. Yangon City Development Committee, Yangon Regional Government xii. Mandalay City Development Committee, Mandalay Regional Government xiii. Mawlamyine District Government, Mon State Government xiv. Myanmar Engineering Society

In addition to the network organizations listed above, international organizations such as JICA and UNDP, and academic institutes such as Yangon Technological University and Mandalay Technological University were invited to official meetings and workshops in order to enhance the range of TA activities through discussions.

1.3.3 Consultant Team The consultant team consisted of two groups of experts for Part II-A and Part II-B. Table 1.3.1 shows the composition of the consultant team. Both groups jointly worked on all work items for smooth implementation of the TA.

Table 1.3.1 ADB TA-8456 Part II Consultant Team Composition Name (Nationality) Position Part II-A Mr. Hisaya Sawano (JPN) Team Leader / Flood Management Expert 1 ICHARM Mr. Yusuke Yamazaki (JPN) Hydrological-Hydraulic Modeling, and Flood and 2 ICHARM Storm Surge Analysis Specialist Mr. Badri Bhakta Shrestha (NPL) Flood and Storm Surge Risk Assessment Specialist 3 ICHARM Ms. Yoko Hagiwara (JPN) Training Coordinator 4 ICHARM Part II-B Mr. Kazuhiro Nakamura (JPN) Coordinator / Flood Management Expert 1 CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. Mr. Takuya Yagami (JPN) Hydrological, Hydraulic and Storm Surge 2 CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. Modeling Engineer Mr. Awadh Kishor Sah (NPL) Satellite Information Engineer 3 PASCO CORPORATION Ms. Akira Watanabe (JPN) Training Expert 4 CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd.

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1.4 Overview of Activities 1.4.1 General Description From July 2014 to November 2016, the consultant team implemented the project activities in line with the Terms of Reference (TOR), which was confirmed by ADB during the Inception Mission and later modified the period of activities after the consultation with ADB. Table 1.4.1 shows the major activities of TA-8456 Part II. The mission and descriptions of activities undertaken during this period are summarized in Table 1.4.2 in section 1.4.3. For smooth implementation of TA-8456, the consultant team discussed with DMH and network organizations through official meetings, workshops, individual meetings, and other opportunities.

Table 1.4.1 Major Activities of TA-8456 Part II No. Activities Description - The official meetings were held at the principal phases of TA-8456, such as the inception, interim, and final stages. 1 Official Meetings - Four (4) official meetings (Inception Meeting, Consultation Meeting, Interim Meeting, and Final Meeting) were held in this TA. - The consultant team had meetings at every stay in Myanmar with DMH and the Network Organization Members for smooth implementation of the TA. - The main topics for discussions with DMH were 1) scheduling of 2 Individual Meetings the TA, 2) training contents, 3) data collection, and 4) a business plan for DMH, etc. The objectives and contents of risk assessment were discussed with DMH and Implementation Network Organizations. - The workshops were organized to enhance DMH and Implementation Network Organizations in their understanding of 3 Workshops flood risk assessment and to promote the exchange of opinions with each other. - To strengthen the capacity of DMH on meteorological and hydrological modeling, a series of technical training on the RRI Model and the storm surge model was carried out four times for 4 Technical Training DMH and ID members and their trainer candidates. Follow-up training was also conducted four times for further improvement of their capacity. Training on flood disaster risk assessment was also carried out once for DMH and ID members. - The field trips were conducted to meet with staff of DMH local office and other relevant organizations, as well as to conduct field surveys in the three target cities for better understanding of natural and social conditions in the fields. 5 Other - To meet needs of DMH for better information technology (IT) equipment, the consultant team procured IT equipment including four (4) personal computers for hydrological/hydraulic simulation and one (1) large-size printer for printing hazard maps, etc.

In addition, the Part II-A and Part II-B Consultants had at least one internal meeting every month at ICHARM, Tsukuba, Japan, to discuss the implementation of the project activities. The history of TA-8456 activities is outlined in the next section.

1.4.2 Implementation Process of TA-8456 In this section, the outline of activities mainly relevant to DMH is described for understanding the process of TA-8456.

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(1) Activities on 2014 (a) Meeting with DMH on 7 August 2014 The first meeting with DMH took place on 7 August 2014. Mr. Sawano, the team leader of the consultant team, introduced a project overview and the RRI Model, developed by ICHARM, and discussed data collection necessary for development of a flood inundation model and flood risk assessment. Through several meetings, it was found that DMH was interested in utilization of hydrological/hydraulic models for flood forecasting and warning in the future, and DMH was eager for training opportunities in this TA.

(b) Meeting with DMH on 15 September 2014 In order to discuss the Scope of Works (S/W) of TA-8456 Part II (Flood Management), the consultant team held a meeting with DMH and the ADB headquarters. Through the discussion, it was clarified that DMH was interested in learning the process of development of a flood inundation model using the RRI Model, and DMH requested to join the consultant team in the formulation process of an inundation model as cooperative training, instead of taking stand-alone training. Ms. Honda from the ADB headquarters attended the meeting, and basically agreed that the main activities of TA-8456 should focus on technical transfer of the RRI Model and the storm surge model.

(c) Inception Meeting on 16 September 2014 The Inception meeting was the kick off meeting of TA-8456 Part II in order to share information on the overall activities and schedule of TA-8456 Part II and to establish a cooperative framework among DMH, organizations relevant to flood disaster risk management, ADB and the consultant team for smooth implementation of the TA. The Inception Meeting aimed 1) to introduce and discuss the project activities and the work plan of TA-8456 Part II with DMH and 2) to ask organizations relevant to flood disaster risk management to cooperate for smooth implementation of TA-8456 Part II. Through the discussions, it was confirmed that i) training on the RRI Model and the storm surge model for DMH would cover all the process of actual modeling, and that ii) organizations relevant to flood disaster risk management (Implementation Network Organizations) would cooperate with DMH and the consultant team for smooth implementation of TA-8456 Part II.

Figure 1.4.1 Opening Remarks by Dr. Hrin Figure 1.4.2 Group Photo of the Inception Meeting Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH

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(d) Preliminary Study on 6 October 2014 As the preliminary study, a workshop was held for the staff of the DMH headquarters (Nay Pyi Taw) with 17 participants and the consultant team. The objectives of this workshop were 1) to conduct needs assessment for a DMH business plan, 2) to discuss the key pre-set conditions for

the modeling work, and 3) to outline the RRI Model and the storm surge model.

£ ¤ ¥¦¤ § £ ¨©§ ¦¤ ¢ £¤ ©§ £ ¢ £ ¢   ¤¤¦¢§ £¢¥ § £ ¢ ¡¢ s and challenges they had been facing in their daily business and information related to the future needs, the consultant team employed the following two methodologies: 1) Questionnaire survey and individual interviews 2) Group discussion on selected topics

At the workshop, the consultant team gathered information on the current conditions of DMH using a questionnaire form. Then group discussion on selected topics was conducted in order to validate the information collected from multiple sources including the initial questionnaire/interview survey with DMH officers, the preliminary survey conducted through the internet, available related reports, and interviews with organizations/projects related to flood disaster risk management in Myanmar including the Japan Water Agency (JWA) and SATREPS Team (organized by Tokyo University, Japan), etc.

Figure 1.4.3 Group Photo of Workshop at Figure 1.4.4 Presentation by DMH DMH, Nay Pyi Taw Meteorology Officer

Through the workshop, the consultant team identified the challenges/issues of DMH regarding their activities as follows:

 DMH currently provides annual training courses on meteorology and hydrology ranging from Level I to Level IV. These DMH courses include practical training, such as GIS analysis, observation methods, modeling work, etc. However, the number of officers who have a relevant scientific knowledge and skill are still limited. DMH needs more hydrologists for flood forecasting and warning activities, and more GIS and remote sensing experts are also required for mapping out hazards.

 Regional offices are allocated a very limited number of qualified officers. More qualified officers are needed for regional offices in order to de-centralize DMH functions in the future.

 Adequate office equipment needs to be allocated in order for the DMH headquarters and its regional offices to operate daily work and emergency operation more efficiently and effectively.

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¡ Additional observation stations, especially automatic water-level/rainfall stations with a telemetry system, need to be installed for efficient data collection (real-time observation) and data management.

¡ Advanced technologies such as weather radars and utilization of satellite information can assist DMH in providing more accurate and timely information regarding weather and floods.

(e) Meeting with Implementation Network Organizations and field surveys from 6 to 17 October 2014 The consultant team made a courtesy call for each organization involved, and discussed past disasters, flood damage, and data availability for data request. The team had twenty-eight (28) meetings and gathered information. In addition, the team conducted field visits and interview surveys in the three target areas (Yangon including Bago, Mawlamyine and Mandalay).

[Yangon]

Figure 1.4.5 Pun Hlaing River which connects Figure 1.4.6 Twante Canal Flood Gate in Hlaing River and Ayeyarwady River in Yangon Twante Canal which connects Hlaing River and Basin (8 Oct 2014) Thande River in Yangon Basin (8 Oct 2014)

Figure 1.4.7 Aung Theikdi Road & Creek in Figure 1.4.8 Creek in Yangon City Yangon City (8 Oct 2014) (8 Oct 2014) Note: Flooding around the Yangon area could be affected by flood water from the Ayeyarwady River and the Thande River. In the city area, flooding occurs due to poor drainage.

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[Mawlamyine]

Figure 1.4.9 Flood Prone Agricultural Area in Figure 1.4.10 Estuary of Thanlwin River in Mawlamyine (12 Oct 2014) Mawlamyine (12 Oct 2014) Note: Flooding in the Mawlamyine city area occurs due to local heavy rain during a high tide. On the other hand, flooding surrounding the city occurs due to overflow from creeks, not from storm surges.

[Mandalay]

Figure 1.4.11 Drainage Canals in Mandalay City Figure 1.4.12 Flood Mark in a Village near (16 Oct 2014 ) Ayeyarwady River in Mandalay (16 Oct 2014) Note: Flooding in the Mandalay city area occurs due to poor drainage. Inundation area due to overflow from the Ayeyarwady River is limited only along the river.

(f) Meeting with DMH on 17 October 2014 The consultant team had a meeting with DMH to report the results of the field visits and discuss issues on data collection, training and a business plan. The consultant team and DMH confirmed the procedure of data collection from relevant organizations, and agreed that DMH would send request letters to relevant organizations for collecting data/information necessary for TA's activities.

Regarding the training, three members of DMH ¡ s Hydrological Division were assigned as trainer candidates. In addition, the consultant team informed DMH and ADB that Irrigation

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Department (ID) expressed their interest in attending the training on the RRI Model and the storm surge model. DMH accepted ID's request, and ADB approved it. The first technical training (TM-1) was scheduled at the end of the year 2014. In this meeting, a business plan was also discussed. DMH mentioned that it would like to decentralize the forecasting center, and to strengthen the capacity of DMH including staff, systems and budgets.

(g) Meeting with DMH on 25 November 2014 The tentative schedule and executing methodology of the technical training were discussed. As a result, it was determined that 1) TM-1 would be held in December 2014 through a TV conference system (afterward decided as 19 December), and 2) TM-2 would be held from 2 to 5 February 2015 (later rescheduled as from 16 to 20 February 2015).

(h) Technical Training (TM-1) on 19 December 2014 The Basic Hydrological and Hydraulic training of TM-1 was held with twenty-one (21) participants from DMH and ID on 19 December 2014 via a TV conference system connecting

between the ADB Nay Pyi Taw Residence Office and ICHARM ¡s Tsukuba Office. This training was the first of the series of four technical training sessions for hydrological and hydraulic modeling using the RRI Model. A summary of TM-1 is described in Chapter 7.

(2) Activities on 2015 (a) Technical Training (TM-2) from 16 to 20 February 2015 The TM-2 technical training, consisting of on-site lectures, was held from 16 to 20 February (5 days) at DMH Nay Pyi Taw. TM-2 had two components: one was for hydrologists and the other for meteorologists. TM-2 aimed to 1) review the basic knowledge of hydrology and the RRI Model, which were taught at TM-1, 2) learn basic steps for developing a RRI Model and improving the model accuracy, 3) learn basic steps for developing a storm surge model and improving the model accuracy, and 4) learn how to utilize simulation results obtained from the RRI and storm surge models. Goals 1) and 2) were for hydrologists and 3) was for meteorologists, while 4) was for both. A summary of TM-2 is described in Chapter 7.

(b) Meeting with DMH on 18 February 2015 The consultant team had a meeting with DMH to discuss 1) future training (TM-3 and TM-4)

and 2) confirm the progress of data collection. £ Regarding future training, the consultant team and DMH agreed to carry out ¢ advanced training specially designed for future trainer candidates. The next training was scheduled on May 2015. The consultant team reported that data collection was behind the schedule, and asked DMH to remind the relevant organizations of their data provision. DMH agreed to support the data collection activities.

(c) Meeting with DMH on 11 May 2015 The consultant team had a meeting with DMH to discuss 1) a flood inundation analysis model

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with the RRI and storm surge models, 2) risk assessment, 3) development of a business plan, ¢ and 4) issues on ¡ Survey Report on Needs Assessment . Regarding modeling, the following points were discussed and confirmed:

£ A calculation grid of 15 seconds (approx. 450m) was to be employed for the RRI Model.

£ Due to poor availability of elevation data on the Myanmar side, DMH and the consultant team agreed to use global elevation data, e.g., HydroSHEDS (SRTM bases), for development of the model.

£ DMH and the consultant team agreed that a drainage model in urban areas was out of scope in this TA, because analysis on inland flooding caused by poor drainage systems requires dense topographic information and detailed maps of drainage systems, which are difficult to prepare in this TA. Regarding risk assessment, DMH and the consultant team discussed and agreed to employ the 100-year flood as the target flood for risk assessment, but DMH requested that this issue should be addressed at the consultation meeting scheduled to be organized in June to discuss with Implementation Network Organizations because there was no stipulated consensus on this issue among the organizations. In the meeting, DMH provided information on current projects supported by other donors including the World Bank, JICA, etc. for reference to develop a business plan of DMH. Though the mandates described in MAPDRR 2012 could become items of the business plan of DMH, Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH, informed that DMH had not carried out

most of the activities listed in MAPDRR due to its limited capacity. ¢ Regarding the ¡ Survey Report on Needs Assessment , the provisional version of the report,

which was delivered to all the organizations concerned including DMH for their review in April

§¨©    §¨©©  ¨ ¤¥¦  ¨©   ¨ 2015, was discussed in the meeting, and ¤¥¦ the questionnaire surveys. Based on the clarification and additional data provided by DMH, the Survey Report on Needs Assessment was further revised in June 2015 and submitted to DMH during the June 2015 mission for their feedback and discussion. The survey report was revised again based on the comments received during the June 2015 mission and it was submitted to DMH and ADB in August 2015.

(d) Technical Training (TM-3) from 12 to 14 May 2015 The Advanced Meteorological and Hydrological training, TM-3, for the trainer candidates was held from 12 to 14 May 2015 at the DMH headquarters. The objectives of TM-3 were 1) to review the assignment on the RRI and storm surge models given at TM-2 in February 2015, 2) to learn steps for utilizing RRI Model results, 3) to learn basic steps for developing a locally-customized RRI Model, and 4) to learn the basic concepts on risk assessment. A summary of TM-3 is described in Chapter 7.

(e) Meeting with DMH on 16 June 2015 The consultant team had a meeting with DMH to discuss 1) development of a flood inundation model, particularly for urban drainage, 2) additional training, and 3) utilization of the results of risk assessment (hazard mapping). Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH, requested the consultant team to conduct follow-up training in the next mission in October 2015. She mentioned that since it was very important to have a good command of the RRI and storm surge models for flood/coastal flood hazard mapping and other purposes, the currently scheduled training, which had been planned to come to an end with TM-4 in June, seemed not enough. The consultant team recognized the need of follow-up training and agreed to consider it.

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The consultant team presented an example of Japanese flood hazard maps (Nagaoka city, Niigata Prefecture). The director general and other directors showed strong interests in maps.

(f) Technical Training (TM-4) from 15 to 17 June 2015 The Meteorological and Hydrological training, TM-4, for the trainer candidates was held from 15 to 17 June 2015. The objectives of the TM-4 training were 1) to review the assignment on the RRI and storm surge models given at TM-3 in May 2015, 2) to learn steps for utilizing results of the RRI and storm surge models, and 3) to learn and practice hazard assessment by using the RRI and storm surge models. After the training, most of the participants strongly requested follow-up training by the consultant team. A summary of TM-4 is described in Chapter 7.

(g) Meeting with DMH on 17 June 2015 The consultant team had a meeting with DMH to discuss utilization of the RRI Model and other topics. In this meeting, the applicability of the RRI Model to a flood forecasting system was discussed. The consultant team mentioned that the RRI Model could be utilized for flood forecasting. However, calculation time and the accuracy of the results, both of which are defined by the calculation area and the unit size of calculation grid, should be verified. For the improvement of accuracy, a finer grid size and longer calculation time would be required, while a shorter calculation time would be required for flood forecasting. In addition, the consultant team explained that a cross section survey of the target river would be necessary for improvement of flood forecasting and flood hazard mapping.

(h) Consultation Meeting for Risk Assessment on 18 June 2015 For discussion on risk assessment, the Consultation Meeting was organized on 18 June 2015 at the DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office by inviting national government organizations relevant to flood disaster risk management. At the Consultation Meeting, the consultant team explained the importance and benefits of flood disaster risk assessment. In the meeting, the trainer candidates of DMH and ID presented the results of flood inundation analysis using the RRI Model for the three target cities (Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine) and Bago city, which had been developed in the training under TA-8456 Part II. The Relief and Resettlement Department (RRD) also introduced current flood risk assessment activities in Myanmar. The participants discussed how risk assessment could be conducted under this project. The consultant team proposed to use a 100-year flood for risk assessment and there was no objection. A summary of the Consultation Meeting is presented in Annex-1.

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Figure 1.4.13 Explanation of Importance and Figure 1.4.14 Group Photo of the Consultation Benefits of Risk Assessment by the Consultant Meeting Team

Figure 1.4.15 Presentation on Flood Hazard Figure 1.4.16 Presentation on Flood Hazard Assessment in Mandalay area by Mr. Myo Tun Oo Assessment in Mawlamyine area by Mr. Zaw of DMH Myo Khaing of DMH

Figure 1.4.17 Presentation on Flood Hazard Figure 1.4.18 Presentation on Flood Hazard Assessment in Yangon Area by Ms. Myo Myat Thu Assessment in Bago River Basin by Ms. Shwe of DMH Pyi Tan of ID

(i) Interim Meeting on 14 October 2015 The Interim Meeting of Part II was held on 14 October 2015 at the DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office. The main purpose of the Meeting was to report the progress of the TA and to share the challenges and issues with DMH and the Implementation Network Organizations. It was also a good opportunity to discuss risk assessment with them. Therefore, the Interim Meeting consisted of two parts: (i) Part A: Progress and Remaining Activities of the TA-8456 Part II, and (ii) Part B: Risk Assessment. This meeting was accompanied by a workshop on flood hazard mapping, which was held on 15 October 2015.

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(i) Interim Meeting Part A: Progress and Remaining Activities of the TA-8456 Part II Part A of the Interim Meeting was held on 14 October 2015 (morning session) with 29 participants from the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Irrigation Department (ID), ADB and the consultant team. The aims of the Interim Meeting were 1) to explain the progress and achievements of the TA-8456 Part II, 2) to introduce the new topic (utilization of satellite products), 3) to

discuss strategies for implementing the remaining activities of TA-8456 Part II, and 4) to

¤ ¥¦¡¢ ¦ § ¢¨§ ©¥    ¥ ¤   ©¦¥ ¥ © ¢ ¤¦    ¥©  ¥¨ ¥¤ discuss the ¡¢£ the project. In the meeting, Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing, a trainer candidate of DMH, also made a presentation on analysis of flood hazards caused by Cyclone Komen in upper Myanmar Area. DMH emphasized on the importance of continuous follow-up training on the RRI and storm surge models, particularly on the statistical analysis of rainfall, the storm surge model, and the combined model of the RRI and storm surge models.

Figure 1.4.19 Opening Remarks by Dr. Hrin Figure 1.4.20 Presentation on the Result of Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH in Interim Flood Inundation Analysis in Upper Myanmar Meeting Part-A Area by Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing, DMH

A summary report of Part A of the Interim Meeting is presented in Annex-1.

(ii) Interim Meeting Part B: Risk Assessment The aims of this meeting were 1) to explain risk assessment-related activities of TA-8456 Part II, 2) to discuss the necessity of flood disaster risk assessment for flood management, 3) to explain how to conduct flood disaster risk assessment, and 4) to request feedback and support from the participants to conduct flood risk assessment in this TA. In the meeting, the consultant team emphasized the necessity and importance of risk assessment for disaster risk reduction planning through the quantitative estimation of a potential flood hazard and a resulting disaster, and stressed that organizations in charge of disaster prevention and mitigation can take appropriate countermeasures in advance with combination of structural and non-structural measures based on the results of risk assessment. In addition, a statistical method for determining a target scale for flood risk assessment and hazard mapping was introduced. In Part B, the participants from the Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC), the Mandalay City Development Committee (MCDC) and the Mawlamyine Township Development Committee (MWTDC) presented the current flood management activities at

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each city, and the General Administration Department (GAD), Myanmar, also made a presentation on disaster management activities in Myanmar. The main comments from the participants are as follows:

¡ From the presentations by YCDC, MCDC, MWTDC and GAD, it was emphasized that various activities on flood management have been planned and implemented at state, region and township levels in Myanmar.

¡ The Myanmar side was interested in the building codes, the target flood scale and river category, and hazard maps, which were introduced as a part of various risk assessment activities conducted in Japan.

¡ DMH showed their interests in preparing flood hazard maps for Myanmar similar to the Japanese version.

¡ RRD emphasized that awareness raising and information dissemination on natural disaster preparedness are very important by utilizing the results of risk assessment and flood hazard maps.

¡ Dr. Khin Maung Lwin, the moderator of the Interim Meeting, and Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH, emphasized the importance and necessity of collecting observed data, especially tide data, in consideration of climate change and sea level rise. Tidal data is important to conduct storm surge analysis for coastal areas, even for places where no storm surge events have currently occurred. A summary report of the Part B of the Interim Meeting is presented in Annex-1.

Figure 1.4.21 Opening Remarks by Dr. Hrin Nei Figure 1.4.22 Presentation by Ms. Theingi Thiam, Director General of DMH in Interim Aung, Mawlamyine Township Development Meeting Part-B Committee

Figure 1.4.23 Presentation by Mr. Kyaw Min Oo, Figure 1.4.24 Presentation by Mr. Myo Aung, Yangon City Development Committee Mandalay City Development Committee

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Figure 1.4.25 Presentation by Ms. Ohn Khin, General Administration Department

(j) Preparation of Flood Hazard Map (First Version), early October 2015 For the workshop on flood hazard mapping which was held on 15 October 2015, the consultant team prepared flood hazard maps for three target cities (First Version). The contents of the first version flood hazard maps are as follows:

¡ OpenStreetMap was employed as the background map.

¡ Seven symbols were indicated (embassy, hospital, park, plant, school, religion and transportation).

¡ Scale for the entire map was 1/50,000.

(k) Workshop on Flood Hazard Mapping on 15 October 2015 A workshop on flood hazard mapping was held at the DMH headquarters on 15 October 2015 (in the morning). On the previous day, 14 October 2015, the interim meeting was held and the importance and necessity of flood risk assessment including hazard mapping was explained to participants. The aims of this workshop were as follows: 1) To discuss the importance, possible utilization and benefits of flood hazard maps 2) To introduce methodologies for flood hazard mapping, and discuss what can be developed for Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine. DMH and the member organizations of the TA-8456 Part II Implementation Network participated in the workshop. The workshop was moderated by Dr. Khin Maung Lwin. At the workshop, the first version of hazard maps prepared by DMH and ID in cooperation with the consultant team was delivered to all participants. The consultant team asked the participants to give their comments on the flood hazard maps for further improvement. The consultant team emphasized that comments and opinions from stakeholders including local officers and residents are necessary for the improvement of the flood hazard maps and for practical utilization of the maps for flood risk reduction.

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Figure 1.4.26 Group Photo of the Workshop on Flood Figure 1.4.27 Opening Remarks by Mr. Hazard Mapping Hisaya Sawano, Team Leader of ADB TA-8456 Part II

The findings from the workshop on flood hazard mapping are as follows:

¡ Participants showed interests in the presented flood hazard maps.

¡ Some requests were made on the hazard map, especially about coloring. The first version used OpenStreetMap as the base map, which shows road, lakes, parks, etc., in different colors, which caused confusion because they were hardly distinguishable from the colors used for inundation depth.

¡ They were willing to further cooperate with the consultant team in order to validate the information on the flood hazard maps. For further improvement of the hazard maps, the consultant team proposed to host workshops on flood hazard mapping at each of the three target cities, Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine, in order to promote hazard maps and collect comments and opinions from stakeholders at each city.

(l) 1st Follow-up Training from 12 to 16 October 2015 The 1st follow-up training on the RRI and storm surge models was conducted for 4 days on 12-16 October 2015, which was supplemental training of TM3 and TM4 for the trainer candidates. The objectives of this follow-up training were 1) to explain the hybrid model (combination of the RRI Model and a calculated tidal level), 2) to review the flood forecasting model, 3) to conduct training of statistical analysis, and 4) to review the storm surge modeling. A summary of the 1st follow-up training is described in Chapter 7.

(m) Meeting with DMH on 15 October 2015 The consultant team had a meeting with DMH to discuss 1) the RRI and storm surge models and 2) Cyclone Komen. Regarding risk assessment based on flood inundation analysis by using the RRI Model, DMH recognized that a statistical approach was necessary for determination of a target flood scale. The consultant team promised to give an explanation on basic statistics in the next mission. The director of the Meteorological Division explained that hourly tide data in 2007 was recorded, but in Myanmar, it was difficult to obtain tide data due to security problems. The director had already requested MPA to provide tide data for storm surge analysis, but no response was received yet by then. Cyclone Komen in 2015 caused serious damage in Myanmar, especially in Nyaung Don Area and Kale Area. Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH, and Dr. Khin Maung Lwin expressed their hope for support from the consultant team to develop a flood inundation model

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and prepare flood hazard maps for both areas as part of TA-8456 (Afterward, on 19 October 2015, the Director General of DWIR sent an official letter to ADB for technical support from the consultant team).

(n) Request from DWIR on Flood Inundation Analysis in Kale Area and Nyaung Don Area, October 2015 Mr. Htun Lwin Oo, the secretary of the National Water Resources Committee and the Director General of DWIR, made an official request to Mr. Peter Brimble, an ADB principal country specialist, on 19th October 2015, to prepare flood hazard maps for Kale, Sagaing, and Nyaung Don, and Ayeyarwady, which were areas affected by Cyclone Komen in 2015. ADB and the consultant team accepted this request and agreed to support DMH. Afterward, DMH assigned persons in charge of flood inundation analysis in Kale Area and Nyaung Don Area from the Hydrological Division, and the consultant team assisted DMH in preparation for flood hazard maps for both areas from November 2015.

(o) Preparation of Flood Hazard Map (Second Version), November 2015 According to the comments and opinions at the workshops on the presented flood hazard maps, the consultant team revised them for three target cities to prepare the second version. The summary of modifications of the second version of flood hazard maps is as follows:

¡ The colors of the background map were changed into gray to show the colors used for the inundation area and depth clearly.

¡ The entire map (1/100,000) and the detailed map (1/25,000) were prepared.

¡ The color code of the legend for inundation depth was changed (ISO 22324 on societal security is used as reference).

¢ The symbols indicated were changed (embassies and plants were deleted and public buildings were added).

(3) Activities on 2016 (a) Preparation of Flood Hazard Maps (Third Version), January 2016 In preparation for workshops on flood hazard mapping in three target cities, the consultant team revised flood hazard maps (third version). A summary of modifications of the third version of flood hazard maps is as follows:

¡ Latitudes and longitudes were indicated on the side of each map.

¡ Information on a geographical coordinate system, WGS84, was described on each map.

¡ The indicating order of the legend was turned upside down (top: facilities, bottom: inundation depth).

(b) Workshop on Flood Hazard Mapping in Three Target Cities from 25 to 28 January 2016 The consultant team organized workshops on flood hazard mapping jointly with DMH and CDC/TDC at the three target cities: Yangon (25 January 2016), Mandalay (28 January 2016) and Mawlamyine (26 January 2016). The objectives of the workshops were 1) to introduce flood hazard maps (third version) developed under TA-8456 for confirmation and comments on the contents and 2) to discuss the utilization and benefits of flood hazard maps. At each workshop, the flood hazard maps (third version) prepared by the consultant team and DMH were distributed to all participants.

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(i) Yangon [Outline]

- Date: 25 January 2016, 13:00 ¡ 16:30 - Location: City Hall, Yangon City Development Committee, Yangon (Maha Bandoola Road, Kyauktada Township, Yangon, Myanmar) - Participants: National/Local Government Organizations (DMH, RRD, ID, MPA, YCDC), Yangon Technological University, UN Habitat, private companies (CTI Myanmar Co., Ltd, NEDS Co., Ltd), ADB TA-8456 Part I Consultant (moderated by Dr. Khin Maung Lwin)

[Findings] - Participants confirmed the contents and suggested that one inundation area shown in the map (at the southeast part of the international airport) should be corrected. - The priority issue of Yangon is the improvement of its drainage system including cleaning of drainage canals. - Flood hazard maps should be validated by local residents for publication.

(ii) Mandalay [Outline] - Date: 28 January 2016, 9:00 -12:30 - Location: City Hall, Mandalay City Development Committee, Mandalay (26th Road,

71st ¡ 72nd street, Mandalay, Myanmar) - Participants: National/Local Government Organizations (DMH, RRD, ID, GAD, MCDC), Mandalay Technological University

[Findings] - The importance of cooperation between related organizations was recognized. - Hazard maps should be easy to understand for local people including children. (iii) Mawlamyine [Outline] - Date: 26 January 2016, 9:00 -12:30 - Location: Mawlamyine Township Development Committee, Mawlamyine ((Head office Street (Yon Gyi Street), Pabedan Block) - Participants: National/Local Government Organizations (DMH, RRD, ID, GAD, MSDC, MWTDC)

[Findings] - Participants confirmed the contents and suggested that one inundation area (at Mawlamyine University) should be corrected. In addition, some participants commented that flood inundation occurs due to reverse flow from the Ataran River to small channels.

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©£ ¦£ § ¦ ¢ ¦£ § £ § £ £¥  ¤ ¥  ¦§ ¨ §¥ ¦ © £ §© §©  £ - ¡¢¢£¤¥¦ §¨ C participants answered that flood hazard maps can be utilized for drainage planning, suggesting that Mawlamyine city needs to improve its drainage system. - The cooperation among relevant organization is needed; e.g., installation of sluice gates for prevention of reverse flow from the Ataran River. A cooperative framework for flood risk management in Mawlamyine City should be established.

Figure 1.4.28 Opening Remarks by Mr. Soe Si, Figure 1.4.29 Group Photo of Workshop Committee Member, YCDC Participants in Yangon

Figure 1.4.30 Opening Remarks by Mr. Aung Figure 1.4.31 Group Photo of Workshop Min, Chairman, MWTDC Participants in Mawlamyine

Figure 1.4.32 Opening Remarks by Mr. Tun Figure 1.4.33 Group Photo of Workshop Kyi, Committee Member, MCDC Participants in Mandalay

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The consultant team confirmed the following challenges on flood hazard mapping through the workshops:

¡ It is essential to gather comments and opinions from local stakeholders for improvement of flood hazard maps, especially when the initial hazard map is developed based on limited data. Information from local stakeholders should be investigated and reflected on flood hazard maps.

¡ For avoiding misunderstanding of flood hazard maps by stakeholders, calculation methods and pre-conditions employed for making the maps should be plainly explained.

(c) Meeting with DMH on 29 January 2016 The consultant team had a meeting with DMH to share the outcomes of the January Mission (workshops at the three target cities and the 2nd follow-up training) and to discuss on TA activities. In addition, the necessary specifications of IT equipment that would be provided by TA-8456 Part II were discussed. As a result, it was determined that four (4) desktop computers and one (1) large printer would be delivered to DMH.

(d) 2nd Follow-up Training from 25 to 29 January 2016 The consultant team carried out the 2nd follow-up training on the RRI and storm surge models from 25 to 29 January 2016 (5 days) to strengthen the capacity of DMH and ID. The objectives of the training were 1) to review the reference manuals on the RRI and storm surge models provided at the 1st follow-up training in October 2015, 2) to review the process of modeling by using the RRI and storm surge models, and 3) to learn how to prepare coastal flood hazard maps. A summary of the 2nd Follow-up training is described in Chapter 7.

(e) Meeting with DMH on 1 April 2016 The consultant team had a meeting with DMH for the finalization of TA-8456 activities. In this meeting, the main items listed below were discussed and confirmed:

¡ The consultant team would conduct flood inundation analysis using finer DEM (procured from NTT Data Japan) for improvement of flood hazard maps (see Chapter 3)

¡ The collaboration between the Hydrological Division and the Meteorological Division in preparation for flood/coastal flood hazard mapping was confirmed.

¡ DMH basically agreed on the business plan proposed by the consultant team. The main contents of the business plan are listed as follows: 1) Enhancement of meteorological and hydrological monitoring 2) Inclusion of landslide disasters 3) Utilization of satellite images 4) Development of a timeline plan for risk reduction

¡ Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH, was interested in how to utilize satellite images for risk reduction in Myanmar.

(f) 3rd Follow-up Training from 30 March to 6 April 2016 The consultant team implemented the 3rd follow-up training on the RRI and storm surge models from 30 March to 6 April 2016 (6 days). The objectives were 1) to review the process of modeling using the RRI and storm surge models, 2) to learn how to prepare flood hazard maps using ArcGIS, and 3) to introduce updated RRI-GUI. A summary of the 3rd Follow-up training is described in Chapter 7.

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(g) Training on Flood Disaster Risk Assessment from 30 March to 1 April 2016 The consultant team implemented the training on flood disaster risk assessment to strengthen the capacity of DMH and ID from 30 March to 1 April 2016. The objectives were 1) to introduce the basics of flood disaster risk assessment and its utilization as well as to learn how to assess flood disaster risk. A summary of the training on flood disaster risk assessment is described in Chapter 7.

(h) Preparation of Flood Hazard Map (Fourth Version), May 2016 In preparation for the final workshop on ADB TA-8456, the consultant team revised the flood hazard maps (fourth version) considering the comments and opinions collected at the Workshop on Flood Hazard Mapping in the three target cities. In addition, the consultant team procured finer DEM data with 2m resolution called AW3D (from NTT Data, Japan). DMH and the consultant team conducted flood inundation analysis again, and prepared flood hazard maps. The summary of modifications of the fourth version of flood hazard maps is as follows:

¡ Inundation areas and depth were changed according to the simulated results calculated from improved DEM (based on AW3D).

(i) Preparation of Coastal Flood Hazard Map (First Version), May 2016 The consultant team prepared coastal flood hazard maps for Yangon and Mawlamyine areas. The calculation conditions were determined through the discussion with the Meteorological Division of DMH and astronomical tidal level data was newly provided by DMH.

(j) Field Survey in Nyaung Don Area on 18 May 2016 According to the request from DMH on March 2016, DMH and the consultant team conducted field survey in Nyaung Don Area on 18 May 2016. The aims of this survey were 1) to understand the importance of field survey, 2) to investigate the actual conditions of the 2015 flood caused by Cyclone Komen, and 3) to learn how to obtain inundation depth from flood marks. A total of 13 participants (Dr. Khin as the moderator and eight others from DMH, one from the embassy of the Netherlands, and three from the consultant team) attended the field survey. IWUMD also joined the field survey at Nyaung Don. Firstly, DMH and the consultant team visited the GAD Nyaung Don office and had a meeting with them. At the meeting, important information on flood conditions and the current implementation plan was provided by GAD and IWUMD. After the meeting, the field survey was conducted.

Figure 1.4.34 Meeting at GAD Nyaung Don Figure 1.4.35 Field Survey in Nyaung Don Area Office (flood mark survey)

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(k) Follow-up training from 19 to 22 May 2016 In the final workshop planned on 23 May 2016, the trainer candidates were scheduled to make a presentation on their activities; therefore follow-up training was conducted including finalization of products and preparation of presentation material. Rehearsal for the presentation was made to get advice from the consultant team and other trainer candidates for furbishing the presentation.

(l) Meeting with DMH on 20 May 2016 A meeting of TA-8456 Part II was held on 20 May 2016 at the DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office. The aims of this meeting were 1) to explain the schedule of this mission including the final workshop, 2) to report the results of the field survey conducted on 18 May 2016, 3) to confirm the contents of the final workshop, and 4) to discuss business plans.

(m) Final Workshop on 23 May 2016 The final workshop of ADB TA-8456 Part II (Flood Management) was held at Royal Ace Hotel at Nay Pyi Taw on 23 May 2016. The objectives of this workshop were 1) to introduce and share the outcomes of TA-8456 Part II, 2) to make a presentation of flood inundation modeling by the trainer candidates, and 3) to discuss future activities for flood risk management in Myanmar. Forty-five participants from Implementation Network Organizations, YTU, MTU, JICA, UNDP, TA-8472 Consultant and the consultant team attended the final workshop. In the morning session, the overall activities and achievements of TA-8456 Part II were explained. In the afternoon, the trainer candidates from DMH and IWUMD made presentations on flood hazard maps. Dr. Than Naing, a trainer candidate of DMH, made a presentation on meteorological analysis with the storm surge model for Yangon and Mawlamyine areas. Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing and Ms. Aye Aye Naing, trainer candidates of DMH, made presentations on 1) hydrological analysis with the RRI Model and 2) flood and coastal flood hazard mapping for Mawlamyine and Yangon, respectively. Ms. Khin Min Wun Soe, a trainer candidate of DMH, made a presentation on hydrological analysis with the RRI Model and flood hazard mapping for Mandalay. Dr. Aung Than Oo, a trainer candidate of IWUMD, made a presentation on assessment of flood hazard and agricultural damage in the Bago River basin. Mr. Khaing and Ms. Naing also made presentations on assessment of flood hazard and agricultural damages caused by Cyclone Komen in Nyaung Don and Kale areas, respectively. Afterward, the participants discussed the effective utilization of the outcomes from TA-8456 for flood risk management in Myanmar. Through the discussion at the final workshop, the consultant team was able to obtain comments and suggestions from relevant organizations that would be reflected in the final report.

Figure 1.4.36 Opening Remarks by Mr. Kaw Figure 1.4.37 Opening Remarks by Prof. Toshio Moe Oo, Deputy Director General of DMH Koike, Director of ICHARM

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Figure 1.4.38 Group Photo of Final Workshop

Figure 1.4.39 Explanation of Overall Activities Figure 1.4.40 Presentation of Meteorological of TA-8456 by Mr. Hisaya Sawano, Team Leader Analysis with Storm Surge Model by Trainer of TA-8456 Part II Candidate Dr. Than Naing of DMH

Figure 1.4.41 Presentation on Hydrological Figure 1.4.42 Presentation on Hydrological Analysis with RRI Model and Flood and Coastal Analysis with RRI Model and Flood and Coastal Flood Hazard Mapping for Mawlamyine by Flood Hazard Mapping for Yangon by Trainer Trainer Candidate Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing of DMH Candidate Ms. Aye Aye Naing of DMH

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Figure 1.4.43 Presentation on Hydrological Figure 1.4.44 Presentation on Assessment of Analysis with RRI Model and Flood Hazard Flood Hazard and Agricultural Damage in Bago Mapping for Mandalay by Trainer Candidate Ms. River Basin by Trainer Candidate Dr. Aung Than Khin Min Wun Soe of DMH Oo of IWUMD

Figure 1.4.45 Presentation on Assessment of Figure 1.4.46 Presentation on Assessment of Flood Hazard and Agricultural Damage caused by Flood Hazard and Agricultural Damage caused by Cyclone Komen in Kale Area by Trainer Cyclone Komen in Nyaung Don Area by Trainer Candidate Ms. Aye Aye Naing of DMH Candidate Mr. Zaw Myo Khaing of DMH

Figure 1.4.47 Closing Remarks by Mr. Bertrand Figure 1.4.48 Closing Remarks by Mr. Hisaya Clochard, Project Leader of ADB TA-8456 Sawano, Team Leader of TA-8456 Part II

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Figure 1.4.49 Closing Remarks by Mr. Kaw Moe Oo, Deputy Director General of DMH

(n) Preparation of Coastal Flood Hazard Map (Second), June 2016 The consultant team revised the coastal flood hazard map for Yangon. The team obtained a rainfall intensity curve for Yangon city area, and converted daily rainfall data provided by DMH into hourly rainfall data by using the rainfall intensity curve to improve simulation results.

(o) Meeting with DMH on 27 June 2016 A meeting of TA-8456 Part II was held on 27 June 2016 at the DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office. The aims of the meeting were 1) to submit and explain the contents of the preliminary version of final report, especially the business plans and 2) to discuss the next activities.

Figure 1.4.50 Mr. Hisaya Sawano, the Team Figure 1.4.51 Group Photo of the Meeting Leader of TA-8456 Part II, delivered the Project Participants Report (preliminary version) to Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH

(p) RRI Training by DMH from 11 to 15 July 2016 The Hydrological Division of DMH held training on the RRI Model by themselves from 11 to 15 July 2016 at DMH Nay Pyi Taw. DMH invited the members of its Yangon and Mandalay offices, YCDC, MCDC, MSDC (The Mon State Development Committee) and DWIR to the

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training, and a total of 26 persons attended the training. The consultant team supported the training including the provision of the training text book and banner, etc.

Figure 1.4.52 Conferment of Certificate on RRI Figure 1.4.53 Group Photo of the Training Model

(q) Meeting with Chief Minister, Yangon Regional Government on 17 August 2016 The consultant team together with DMH, an officer from the ADB Myanmar Resident Mission and Dr. Khin Maung Lwin had a meeting with H.E. U Phyo Min Thein, the chief minister of the Yangon Regional Government on 17 August 2016. In the meeting, Mr. Hisaya Sawano, a team leader of TA-8456 Part II, introduced the activities of TA-8456 and latest flood hazard maps (fifth version). In the meeting, the chief minister commented on the necessity of incorporating the drainage systems in the flood hazard maps, since YCDC had been cleaning pipes for the improvement of the drainage systems and the effect should be reflected in the maps. The chief minister informed that he would go to UK and obtain the original drawing of the drainage lines, which can be utilized for flood hazard mapping.

Figure 1.4.54 Submission of the Project Report Figure 1.4.55 Group Photo of Meeting (preliminary version) to H.E. U Phyo Min Thein, Participants in Yangon Regional Government Chief Minister of Yangon on 17 August 2016

(r) Meeting with DMH on 18 August 2016 The consultant team had a meeting with DMH on 18 August 2016 at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office. At the meeting, Mr. Sawano informed DMH about the meeting with the chief minister of Yangon Region on 17 August, and of his request to improve the flood hazard maps by incorporating the drainage lines.

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(s) Meeting with Department of Planning (DOP) and Department of Agriculture (DOA), Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation (MOALI) on 18 August 2016 The meeting with DOP and DOA was held on the afternoon of 18 August 2016 at the MOALI. In the meeting, Mr. Sawano explained the outline and activities of TA-8456. In this meeting, Mr. Kyaw Swe Lin, the Deputy Director General of DOP, suggested that the damage estimation should be reviewed and that the modality should be checked.

(t) Meeting with Mayor of Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC) on 19 August 2016 The consultant team together with DMH, an officer from the ADB Myanmar Resident Mission and Dr. Khin Maung Lwin had a meeting with H.E. U Maung Maung Soe, the mayor of YCDC, and its officers on 19 August 2016. In the meeting, Mr. Sawano introduced the activities of TA-8456. In the meeting, the mayor emphasized the necessity of immediate practical solutions for current flood problems.

Figure 1.4.56 Submission of the Project Report (preliminary version) to H.E. U Maung Maung Soe, Mayor of YCDC on 19 August 2016

(u) Preparation of Flood Hazard Map (Sixth Version), October 2016 The consultant team obtained additional information on benchmark surveys from Myanmar Japan Thilawa Development Limited (MjTD). The team modified the elevation data based on the benchmark data, and revised the flood hazard maps (fifth version). The summary of modifications of the fifth version of flood hazard maps is as follows:

¡ The elevation data of the southern part of Yangon including Syriam, Kyauktan and Kawkhmu was adjusted to the benchmark provided by MjTD.

(v) Meeting with DMH on 17 October 2016 The consultant team had a meeting with DMH on 17 October 2016 at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office. At the meeting, Mr. Sawano presented recommendations for DMH, which are described in the final report of the TA-8456 Part II. Mr. Sawano emphasized challenges in the acquisition of hydro-meteorological data and topographical data for flood hazard analysis. He stated that the creation of a platform for the common understanding of flood hazard is necessary and all the stakeholders should understand the meaning of the target scale. Mr. Sawano addressed issues related to the flood forecasting system and the city drainage system, and also pointed out the importance of hourly rainfall data for flood hazard analysis. At the meeting, Mr. Sawano

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informed that the consultant team collected astronomical tidal data of the Navy from the DMH for simulation, but could not collect actual observed tidal data. He noted that the difference between the zero point of astronomical tidal data and the mean sea level used for the benchmark should be checked and adjusted to improve coastal flood inundation analysis in Yangon. Furthermore, Mr. Sawano emphasized the importance of information sharing among the organizations involved for more effective river basin management and disaster risk reduction.

At the meeting, Mr. Sawano introduced the agenda and presentation materials of the final meeting on 18 October 2016.

(w) Final Meeting on 18 October 2016 The final meeting of ADB TA-8456 Part II (Flood Management) was held at Royal Ace Hotel at Nay Pyi Taw on 18 October 2016. The objectives of this meeting were: 1) to introduce the final report of the TA-8456 Part II; and 2) to discuss the utilization of outcomes of the TA for flood management in Myanmar and the way forward. Thirty-three participants attended the final meeting from Implementation Network Organizations, YTU, MTU, JICA, US Forest Service (USFS), Australian Civilian Corps, ADB, and the consultant team. In Session 1, the achievements of the ADB TA-8456 Part II were explained by Mr. Hisaya Sawano, a team leader of TA-8456 Part II. In addition, the latest flood hazard and costal flood hazard maps were introduced. In Session 2, all participants discussed the utilization of outcomes of the TA for flood disaster risk reduction and the way forward for effective flood management in Myanmar. The main discussion points of the final meeting are described below:

¡ At the final meeting, a participant asked what kind of data and information should be collected for the development of flood damage curves and which organizations should lead these activities. Mr. Sawano replied that damage data should be collected from various ministries for the development of flood damage curves, for example, agricultural damage data should be collected from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation, and housing damage data should be collected from the Ministry of Construction. He also mentioned that hazard information such as flood conditions should be collected by DMH, and local conditions such as inundation depth can be collected by local governments. Mr. Sawano pointed out the importance of building a data archiving system and ensuring cooperation among organizations concerned for development of flood damage curves.

¡ To response the question of participants, Mr. Sawano explained that the developed model using global data shows a certain level of agreement with the actual condition, and also mentioned that how the digital elevation model can be improved for getting more accurate results.

¡ At the meeting, IWUMD informed that they have developed a flood forecasting formula based on the accumulated data of upstream areas and past experiences, which is not so reliable in present conditions because of the changes of river cross sections. In response to discussions on changes of river conditions in the future, Mr. Sawano stated that sediment movement is sometime difficult to predict through simulation, and that experiments should also be conducted in the future for more accurate prediction of sediment movement.

¡ Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH, asked the consultant team what kind of information and data are required for identifying the target scale of a flood hazard, and which department should be involved in this process. Mr. Sawano explained that how the target scale for flood hazard analysis is identified in Japan, and also stated that the final decision on the target scale should be made by the Myanmar Government based on the consensus among organizations concerned. The consultant team will assist it by providing technical information. The information for identifying the target scale of a flood hazard is described in Chapter 5.

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¡ Dr. Kyow Moe Oo, Deputy Director General of DMH, informed the activities of the National Monsoon Forum and he mentioned that it was previously organized only in Nay Pyi Taw but now the forum has been set up at 7 or 8 places in the country.

¡ Dr. Oo also asked question about the applicability of the RRI Model for Myanmar. Mr. Sawano replied that the basic theory and structure of the RRI Model can be applied to Myanmar and an important issue is to tune the model by adjusting its parameters or land elevation because the model is developed based on limitedly available data. Mr. Sawano stated that in the case of Yangon, the combination of two models is required especially for small scale frequent floods, i.e. the RRI Model for surface flow modeling and the other for the flow in the sewerage system.

¡ Dr. Khin Maung Lwin, moderator of the final meeting, commented on the necessity to share not only meteorological data but also hydrological data before a disaster, and also suggested to use social media to deliver comprehensive information. Dr. Lwin also stated the necessity to share suggestions and information with the operational layer of government officers. He also mentioned that the issues of small rivers should also be focused. He also stated the necessity to improve the resilience of local people to changing river conditions.

¡ In the closing remarks, Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH, appreciated the series of training programs including training of trainers, hydrological analysis and development of flood hazard maps and other achievements under the project. She also pointed out challenges of flood forecasting in Myanmar. She noted that the RRI Model can be very useful to show possible flood inundation areas. She also highlighted the development of flood hazard maps for three cities through this project, and noted that they were useful not only for evacuation but also for land use planning.

¡ In the closing remarks, Mr. Bertrand Clochard, Project Leader of TA-8456, extended sincere gratitude to DMH for providing the generous support for the project. He also stated that the objective of this TA was to provide reliable, usable and understandable information for urban planners. He also emphasized the necessity to collect data from the field, and process and update them regularly.

A summary of the final meeting is presented in Annex-1.

Figure 1.4.57 Opening and Welcome Figure 1.4.58 Explanation of the Achievements of Remarks by Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director ADB TA-8456 Part II by Mr. Hisaya Sawano, Team General of DMH Leader of TA-8456 Part II

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Figure 1.4.59 Group Photo of the Final Meeting

Figure 1.4.60 Closing Remarks by Dr. Figure 1.4.61 Closing Remarks by Mr. Bertrand Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General of DMH Clochard, Project Leader of ADB TA-8456

(x) Meeting with DWIR on 19 October 2016 The consultant team had a meeting with DWIR on 19 October 2016 at DWIR, Yangon Office. At the meeting, Mr. Sawano reported the outline of the final meeting held on 18 October 2016. Mr. Sawano also introduced the achievements of the project and contents of the final report. At the meeting, the issue of the benchmark was also discussed and Mr. Htun Lwin Oo, Director General of DWIR, promised to provide data on the benchmark. Mr. Oo also informed the activities of the Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (AIRBM). Afterward, DWIR sent the information of the datum level used by Navy to the consultant team.

(y) Meeting with MjTD on 19 October 2016 The consultant team had a meeting with Myanmar Japan Thilawa Development Limited (MjTD) on 19 October 2016 at the MjTD office in Yangon for discussion about coastal flood hazard mapping. After the meeting, MjTD staff member, and the consultant team visited the Myanmar International Terminals Thilawa (MITT) to collect the information. At the terminal, the consultant team inferred that the sea level had been observed by using the datum level of Navy because the actual water level of 5.9m at 16:40 on 19 October 2016 was close to the astronomical high tide published by Navy (6.43m at 18:11). Then it was found that the ground

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elevation of the terminal measured based on the datum level of Navy was much higher than the elevation measured based on the benchmark, and this was also considered to cause the consultant team to overestimate inundation area in the coastal areas. Then benchmark survey was conducted by MjTD in cooperation with CTI Myanmar Co., Ltd.

*The sea water level was approx. 5.9 m at 16:40 on 19 *Installed by MPA, not in operation as of October 2016 October 2016 Figure 1.4.62 Tidal Gauge in MITT Figure 1.4.63 Automatic Tide Recorder (MPA)

(z) Preparation of Coastal Flood Hazard Map (Third Version), November 2016 The Myanmar Japan Thilawa Development Limited (MjTD) conducted benchmark survey and provided the results to the consultant team at the end of November 2016. The consultant team modified the sea water level based on this survey results to improve the coastal flood hazard map of Yangon area.

(aa) Preparation of Flood Hazard Map (Seventh Version), November 2016 The consultant team also used the modified sea water level as the lower boundary condition for RRI simulation, and revised the flood hazard map of Yangon area.

1.4.3 Missions and Descriptions of Activities Undertaken The mission and the descriptions of the main activities undertaken during this period are summarized in Table 1.4.2. All activities and descriptions are shown in Annex-2. In addition, a list of the meeting conducted under TA-8456 Part II and participants are shown in Annex-3

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Table 1.4.2 Missions Undertaken from July 2014 to October 2016 Activities Date Official meetings Individual Meetings Workshop Technical Trainings Others 2014 [7 and 8 August] [8 and 9 August] August Meetings for the preparation of the Field survey along the Yangon Mission Inception Mission with DMH Nay River and the flood prone areas

Pyi Taw office, DMH Yangon near Yangon (Nyuang Don) for

7 ¡ 9 August office, JICA Myanmar office understanding target cities and its 2014 circumstances.

[16 September] Inception Meeting [14 ¡ 17 September] September at DMH Nay Pyi Taw office. Meetings with DMH, RRD, ADB, Mission Implementation Network Organization TA-8456 Part I Consultant and participated Embassy of Japan in Myanmar

14 ¡ 17 - Scope of works of the TA was September approved. 2014 - Implementation Network

Organization was authorized. ¡ [7 ¡ 17 October] [6 October] Pre-workshop [7 17 October] Meetings for needs assessment and at DMH Nay Pyi Taw office for Field surveys for understanding October data collection at total 27 offices of understanding the current target areas. (Yangon, Bago, Mission the Network organizations. condition of DMH and needs of Mawlamyine, and Mandalay)

¢ - Meeting with UNDP and JICA. DMH s business. Ataran River was identified 6 ¡ 17 - Current condition and basic as target river for the flood October 2014 issues of DMH was risk assessment for identified Mawlamyine [25 and 26 November] [25 November] November Meeting for the preparation of Facility test of TV conference Mission training on RRI Model and Storm system in ADB Myanmar Resident

Surge Model with DMH, ID and Mission office for TM-1 Training. 25 ¡ 26 ADB Myanmar resident office November - Plan of series of training 2014 (TM) was approved. [19 December] [19 December] Meeting with DMH and ID for the Training on RRI Model: TM-1 December contents of next training on RRI (TV conference): Mission Model and Storm Surge Model at ADB Myanmar Resident

(TM-2) Mission office and ICHARM 19 December - DMH and ID requested (Tsukuba, Japan) 2014 on-site training instead of DMH and ID including observers training through a TV participated

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Activities Date Official meetings Individual Meetings Workshop Technical Trainings Others conference system 2015

February [16 February] [16 ¡ 20 February] Mission Meeting with DMH for the Training on RRI Model and preparation of TM-2 and for next Storm Surge Model: TM-2

16 ¡ 20 training (TM-3) at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office February [19 February] DMH and ID including observers 2015 Meeting with RRD participated

May Mission [11 May] [12 ¡ 14 May] Meeting with DMH for the Training on RRI Model and

11 ¡ 14 May preparation of next trainings Storm Surge Model: TM-3 2015 (TM-4) at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office Trainer candidates of DMH and ID, and observers participated.

[18 June] [15, 16 and 17 June] [15 ¡ 17 June] Consultation Meeting on Risk Meeting with DMH for the Training on RRI Model and Assessment preparation of the Consultation Storm Surge Model: TM-4 at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office Meeting and training (TM-4). at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office Implementation Network Organization [16 June] Trainer candidates of DMH and participated Meeting with RRD for data ID, and observers participated. collection for risk assessment.

June Mission - The importance of flood hazard [18 June] - DMH and ID requested

¨¥¤© ¤ ££¤  mapping for risk assessment ¢££¤¥¦§ follow-up training

15 ¡ 18 June was explained. new Project Leader and to discuss 2015 the progress and issues in the project implementation. [19 June] Meeting with YCDC and JICA Expert in YCDC for their support and coordination. Meeting with Embassy of Japan in Myanmar. [14 October] [12 October] [15 October] Workshop on Flood [12 ,13 and 16 October] [15 October] Interim Meeting Meeting with DMH on Hazard Mapping 1st Follow-up training on RRI Technical Discussion on RRI October at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office implementation of the TA at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office Model and Storm Surge Model Model and Storm Surge Model and Mission Implementation Network Implementation Network at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office the contents of the compiled

Organizations participated [16 October] Organizations participated. Trainer candidates of DMH and training materials with DMH and

12 ¡ 16 Meeting with JICA, JICA expert in ID, and observers participated. ID. October 2015 - Progress of the TA-8456 was YCDC and UNDP on their explained. activities relevant to TA-8456 Part [Middle of October]

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Activities Date Official meetings Individual Meetings Workshop Technical Trainings Others - Provision of data necessary for II. Follow up activities on urgent risk assessment was requested Meeting with Embassy of Japan in Questionnaire Survey on by the consultant team. Myanmar Cyclone Komen for understanding the activities during natural disaster event in Myanmar. 2016 [29 January] [25, 26 and 28 January] [25 to 29 January] Meeting with DMH for Workshop on Flood Hazard 2nd Follow-up training on RRI establishment of business plan for Mapping in three target cities Model and Storm Surge Model DMH - Necessity and importance of at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office January - The consultant Team flood hazard maps for flood Trainer candidates of DMH and Mission explained draft business risk assessment was ID, and observers participated.

plans of DMH recognized in three target 25 to 29 - January 2016 Availability of tidal data, cities. procurement of IT equipment and replacement of finer DEM were discussed. [1 April] [30 March to 6 April] Meeting with DMH for remaining Follow-up training on RRI works of TA including business Model and Storm Surge Model plan for DMH and Training on Flood Disaster - DMH agreed to draft a Risk Assessment business plan proposed by at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office the consultant team. Trainer candidates of DMH and - DMH request to conduct ID, and observers participated.

March ¡ field survey in Nyaung Don April Area Mission - DMH agreed on calculation conditions for coastal flood 30 March to hazard maps. 6 April 2016 [4 April] Meeting with DAP for collecting agricultural damage data, cropping pattern data - The consultant team obtained data on cropping patterns which were utilized for flood risk assessment.

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Activities Date Official meetings Individual Meetings Workshop Technical Trainings Others The consultant team also obtained damage information/data by email after the meeting.

[5 April] Meeting with DMH for hydrological/hydraulic modeling [19 May] [23 May] [19 to 22 May] [18 May] Meeting with DMH for discussion Final Workshop Follow-up training on RRI Field survey in Nyaung Don area on follow-up training and at Royal Ace Hotel, Nay Pyi Taw Model and Storm Surge Model together with DMH, ID and GAD preparation of the Final workshop at DMH Nay Pyi Taw Office staffs. Trainer candidates of DMH and ID [20 May] participated. Meeting with DMH for discussion on contents of draft final report, business plan of DMH, flood hazard maps and preparation of Final workshop

Meeting with ID and RRD for May explanation of draft final report of Mission the TA and flood hazard maps

18 to 25 [23 May] May 2016 Meeting with DMH for wrap-up discussion on final workshop and way forward

[24 May] Meeting with JICA for explanation of draft final report of the TA and flood hazard maps

[25 May] Meeting with YCDC/JICA Expert in YCDC and YTU for explanation of draft final report of the TA and flood hazard maps

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Activities Date Official meetings Individual Meetings Workshop Technical Trainings Others [23 June] Meeting with YCDC/JICA Expert in YCDC for explanation of preliminary version of final report and flood hazard map

[24 June] Meeting with ADB TA-8456 Part I, UNDP, JICA and Embassy of Japan in Myanmar for explanation of preliminary version of final report of TA-8456 part II June Mission [27 June] Meeting with DMH for submission 23 to 28 and explanation of preliminary June 2016 version of final report, and discussion on outreach process

Meeting with ID (IWUMD) for explanation of preliminary version of final report, and discussion on outreach process

[28 June] Meeting with RRD and DWIR for explanation of preliminary version of final report, and discussion on outreach process July [11 to15 July] RRI Model training by DMH 11 to 15 July The consultant team supported 2016 [16 August] Meeting with JICA Expert in MPA August for discussion on flood hazard assessment activities 15 to 19 August 2016 [17 August] Meeting with Chief Minister, Yangon Regional Government

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Activities Date Official meetings Individual Meetings Workshop Technical Trainings Others

[18 August] Meeting with DMH for explanation of meeting with Chief Minister, Yangon

Meeting with DOP and DOA under MOALI for explanation of summary of TA-8456

[19 August] Meeting with Mayor of Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC)

Meeting with Embassy of Japan in Myanmar and JICA for explanation of TA-8456 [17 October] [18 October] [19 October] Meeting with DMH for preparation Final Meeting Meeting with MjTD for discussion of the final meeting at Royal Ace Hotel, Nay Pyi Taw about coastal flood hazard maps

[19 October] Meeting with DWIR for explanation of the outline of the October final meeting

17 to 20 Meeting with JICA for explanation October 2016 of the achievements of TA-8456

[20 October] Meetings with JICA Experts in YCDC and Embassy of Japan in Myanmar for explanation of the achievements of TA-8456

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CHAPTER 2 NEEDS ASSESSMENT

The identification of the current capacity, targeted future capacity and existing gaps for flood and storm surge analysis and risk assessment is essential in formulating capacity development strategies of DMH and organizations concerned in Myanmar. To make this process inclusive and participatory, interview and questionnaire surveys were conducted with officers of DMH and organizations relevant to risk assessment. Detailed activities on needs assessment are described in the separate report entitled "The Survey Report on Needs Assessment," which was submitted to ADB and DMH. According to the schedule which was approved at the Inception Meeting in September 2014, the first version of the report was submitted to ADB in March 2015. Afterward, additional comments and information were received from DMH and member organizations of the Part II Implementation Network, and were incorporated in the report. In August 2015, the needs assessment survey was completed and the revised version of the survey report was submitted to DMH for their confirmation on its contents. The final version was prepared by reflecting the discussions made in the meetings with several organizations after August 2015 as a form of recommendations and submitted in May 2016.

2.1 Methodology of Needs Survey 2.1.1 Needs Assessment of DMH The questionnaire and interview surveys for needs assessment of DMH in flood management focused on the following aspects: i) systems and technology including flood forecasting and warning, flood hazard mapping, operation and maintenance and equipment and facilities; ii) human resources including knowledge and technical skills, experience, and qualifications; and iii) institutional setup including roles and responsibilities, organizational structure, budget, planning, liaisons, training of officers, and publications. The current status and challenges identified by DMH are summarized together with the suggestions for future improvement made by the consultant team (Table 2.2.1, Table 2.2.2, and Table 2.2.3). 2.1.2 Needs Assessment of Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment The questionnaire and interview surveys for needs assessment of organizations relevant to risk assessment mainly focused on the following aspects: i) systems and technology including post disaster assessment, data processing and management, utilization of past damage data and availability of risk maps; ii) roles and responsibilities for flood risk assessment; and iii) challenges/needs for future improvement (Table 2.3.1 and Table 2.3.2). Recommendations for future improvement on risk assessment were prepared based on the results of needs assessment.

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No. Activities Description concerned for review on 10 April 2015. The revised version of the report was submitted to DMH and other related organizations on 18 June 2015. The survey report was revised again based on the comments received during the June 2015 mission and it was submitted to DMH on 25 August 2015 for confirmation. The final version of the report was delivered to all the organizations concerned on 23 May 2016.

2.1.3 Procedure of Questionnaire Survey The assessment was commenced in late November 2014. First, request letters were submitted to DMH with a questionnaire survey form for needs assessment of DMH and other organizations relevant to risk assessment. Data request was also made to DMH and organizations concerned. In early December 2014, DMH distributed those request letters to other relevant organizations. In early March 2015, a provisional version of the Survey Report on Needs Assessment, together with the Data Collection Report, was drafted. Then, the provisional version of the reports was delivered in April 2015 to all organizations concerned for a review. At the time of delivery of the reports, a follow-up request was also made to compile remaining responses and additional information and clarification. In June 2015, a revised version of the Survey Report was prepared and presented to DMH and other organizations concerned at the Consultation Meeting on 18 June 2015 for feedback and discussion.

2.1.4 Participated Organizations Questionnaire survey was conducted for DMH and other organizations relevant to risk assessment. The participated organizations are listed in Table 2.1.2. Table 2.1.2 Description of Procedures for the Needs Assessment No. Activities Participated Organizations Individual interviews with 1 1. Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) DMH officers Pre-workshop for DMH 1. DMH 2 needs assessment (6 October 2014) [Nay Pyi Taw] 1. DMH 2. General Administration Department (GAD) 3. Irrigation Department (ID) (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department) 4. Water Resources Utilization Department (WRUD) (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department) Field investigation 5. Department of Agriculture and Planning (DAP) (later re-named as Department (visited and held meetings of Planning) with organizations 6. Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems (DWIR) 3 concerned and conducted 7. Department of Human Settlements and Housing Development (HSHD) (later field survey to observe re-named as Department of Urban and Housing Development (DUHD)) local conditions) 8. Relief and Resettlement Department (RRD)

(7 ¡ 17 October 2014) [Yangon] 9. Myanmar Engineering Society (MES) 10. Myanmar Port Authority (MPA) 11. Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC) 12. DMH Yangon office 13. GAD Yangon office 14. ID Yangon office

15. JICA

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No. Activities Participated Organizations 16. UNDP 17. TA-8456 Part I Consultants

[Mawlamyine] 18. Mawlamyine Township Development Committee (MWTDC) 19. DMH Mawlamyine office 20. GAD Mawlamyine office 21. ID Mawlamyine office

[Mandalay] 22. Mandalay City Development Committee (MCDC) 23. DMH Mandalay office 24. GAD Mandalay office 25. ID Mandalay Office 26. ADB PPTA 8472 Consultants Preliminary assessment for 1. DMH 4 DMH (October-November 2014) 1. DMH 2. ID (through Department of Agricultural Planning (DAP)) 3. GAD 4. MPA Questionnaire 5. RRD survey/needs assessment 6. MCDC 5 (December 2014 ¡ August 7. YCDC 2015) 8. MWTDC* 9. DWIR 10. HSHD (currently DUHD)

*Response of MWTDC was included in the response from GAD Mawlamyine

2.2 Results of Needs Assessment of DMH According to the results of the needs assessment for DMH, the consultant team analyzed the current and future needs of DMH and provided DMH with suggestions to fulfill their mandates and achieve their goals. Presented in Table 2.2.1 to Table 2.2.3 is a summary of the needs assessment including the challenges of DMH and suggestions from the consultant team. The main needs of DMH at the time of the survey were found to be related to meteorological and hydrological monitoring including operation and maintenance (O&M), as well as flood forecasting. The challenges to which DMH should give priority are listed below:

¢ Enhancement of meteorological and hydrological monitoring, including construction of more stations, and installation of a telecommunication system, proper implementation of O&M work, etc.

¢ Operation of flood forecasting by utilizing a scientific basis provided by hydrological and hydraulic models

¢ Preparation of flood hazard maps by utilizing a scientific basis provided by hydrological and hydraulic models

¢ Improvement of equipment for efficient hydrological, hydraulic and GIS operations

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Table 2.2.1 Summary of Needs Assessment for DMH (System and Technology) Suggestions Items Current status identified by DMH Challenges in future identified by DMH Remarks by the consultant team 1. System and technology 1-1 Flood forecasting and warning

¢ ¡ ¡ Data collection (water 30 hydrological stations The number of the existing [Short term]

¡ level/rainfall gauging ¢ 63 meteorological stations observation stations is not Data sharing with other organizations Mutual utilization of existing data

stations, data gathering ¢ 39 meteorological and adequate; fewer stations have by utilizing the existing data systems. owned by each organization is and management.) hydrological stations been installed at the Northern and necessary for effective operation of

¢ 17 agrometeorological stations Eastern regions. the flood forecasting and early

¡ ¢ 8 aeronautical meteorological Real-time data are not available so warning system. offices the manual stations (the stations

¢ 2 tide gauge stations where observation is conducted [Short/Mid-term]

¡ ¢ 5 telemetry water level stations: by the staff and observed data are Establishment of a data management An appropriate data management Hinthada of Ayeyarwady River, transmitted by the staff via center at DMH Nay Pyi Taw system is a fundamental Toungoo of Sittoung River, telephone or SSB transmitter) requirement in flood management. Hpaan-an of Thanlwin River, should be upgraded to automatic Shwegyin of Shwegyin River and stations (stations where [Short/Mid/Long term] For adequate assessment of natural Bago of Bago River. (15 more observation is conducted by an ¡ Installation of automatic weather stations to be installed during automated recording machine and stations (AWS) and weather radars conditions, more observation 2015-2017) observed data are transmitted by stations such as AWS should be installed. ¢ Maintenance is not practiced the staff via telephone).

properly at observation stations ¡ The existing telemetry systems For flood management, hourly need further calibration because ¡ Upgrading the existing observation Forecasting Stations at 8 major river automatic water level data and stations (installation of automatic observation is recommendable basins manual observation data do not observation equipment with a especially in mountainous areas where flood travel time is short (e.g. ¢ Ayeyarwady: 15 stations match. telecommunication system, e.g. GSM

a few hours); in this case automatic ¡ ¢ Chindwin: 5 stations The telemetry stations do not send (Global System for Mobile recorders should be installed. ¢ Sittoung: 2 stations real time data because Internet Communications).

¢ Thanlwin: 1 station connection is problematic and

¢ Bago: 2 stations sensors are not stable and require

¢ Ngawun: 2 stations further calibration.

¡ ¢ Dokhtawaddy: 2 stations Maintenance at observation

¢ Shwegyiin: 1 station stations should be conducted on a routine schedule.

¡ Observation networks need to be upgraded.

¡ More radar stations should be installed.

¡ Training on data utilization is

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Suggestions Items Current status identified by DMH Challenges in future identified by DMH Remarks by the consultant team needed.

¡ A future plan on data utilization is needed for monitoring climate change.

¡ Data should be more utilized for hazard analysis and disaster management (such as hazard mapping).

¢ ¡

¡ Data processing No real time data collection A website portal for data [Short term] ¢ (computer system Data stored in a computer (no management should be created ¡ Capacity building on hydrological/ DMH members should be educated (server) and software separate server) (under development). hydraulic models such as the RRI and trained on modeling skills and

¢ £¤¥¦§¨ © §¤ © ¦§¤¨ © (flood forecasting IFAS for flood forecasting models ¡ Model for flood forecasting knowledge to operate models by

model)) ¢ Quality control based on Yangon office. Data management themselves. experience servers should be located in Nay Pyi Taw. [Short/Mid-term]

¡ ¡ IFAS and other hydrological Establishment of a data management An appropriate data management models are not fully utilized. center at DMH Nay Pyi Taw system is a fundamental

¡ Database management system requirement in flood management. should be installed.

¢ ¡ ¡ Data transmission (data No automatic transmission. Telemetry water level stations [Short/Mid-term]

transfer system, need to be installed. ¡ Installation of automatic water level For flood management, hourly information network) recorders with a telecommunication observation is recommendable system, e.g. GSM for data especially in mountainous areas transmission where flood travel time is short (e.g. a few hours); in this case automatic recorder should be installed.

¡ ¡ Warning (procedure and [Meteorology] Warnings are only in text format. [Short term]

 criteria for warning) 24 hours or 36 hours prior to the Establishment and generation of ¡ 7 days-a-week operation of Warning In the case of severe weather cyclone landfall to Myanmar graphical output or graphical Operation Center at the time of conditions that may cause

coasts. format are required. severe weather conditions. large-scale natural disasters, 24/7  Warnings will be issued based on ¡ Operation hours of Warning operation is required to respond the intensity/size of a cyclone. Operation Center should be 24/7 promptly. [Hydrology]: warnings are issued based at the time of severe weather on experience. conditions [Short/Mid-term]

 ¡ 5 types of reports to public: ¡ Operation hours of the media is Warnings should be delivered with Warning messages during disasters (1) Daily water level forecast, not 24/7, which makes the understandable information using should be easy to understand. (2) Dekad water level forecast, information dissemination graphics and figures (3) Seasonal water level forecast, difficult. (4) Significant water level bulletin,

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Suggestions Items Current status identified by DMH Challenges in future identified by DMH Remarks by the consultant team (5) Flood bulletin, warning. 1-2 Flood hazard mapping

¡ ¡ ¡ Methodology (hazard HEC-RAS, ArcGIS Training should be provided on [Short term]

¡ simulation) ¡ Field Survey hazard analysis and modeling. Review and improvement of DMH members should be educated training for flood hazard mapping. and trained on modeling skills and knowledge to handle models by themselves.

¡ ¡ ¡ Data acquisition Based on the historical data Hazard analysis data should be [Short term]

collected. ¡ Cooperation with local Local governments should be governments is required. provided with and be able to keep past flood inundation information.

¡ Implementation of a mechanism to Local information/data are essential collect local disaster data for flood hazard mapping.

¡ ¡ ¡ Implementation plan The results of hazard analysis are Hazard analysis needs to be [Short term]

shared with related ministries, completed for the whole country. ¡ Systematic hazard analysis with Hazard analysis is a basis for

local governments and DMH ¡ Hazards to be assessed are floods, identification of priority areas emergency action. regional offices. extreme rainfall events and tsunamis. Past disaster data and simulation models are essential for flood hazard mapping. 1-3 Operation and maintenance

¡ ¡ ¡ Basic rule and strategy No information No answer [Short/Mid-term]

¡ Establishment of rules and For efficient and sustainable O&M, regulations on O&M rules and regulations should be established.

¡ Training of the officers for O&M Appropriate O&M requires an adequate capacity of officers to perform the duties.

¡ Allocation of a regular budget for Provision of a budget is O&M indispensable for sustainable operation of O&M.

¡ ¡ ¡ Monitoring system of No routine maintenance work is A routine schedule needs to be [Short/Mid-term]

public facilities (gauging conducted. fixed for maintenance. ¡ Establishment of a regular For longer service life of facilities, stations) maintenance scheme periodical maintenance is required.

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Suggestions Items Current status identified by DMH Challenges in future identified by DMH Remarks by the consultant team

1-4 Equipment and facilities [Hydrology Division] ¡ High performance computers, [Short term]

¡ (headquarters and field offices) ¡ 4 desktop computers are used for new advanced software such as Review of the current system and Systems should be constantly data entry. MIKE 11 and ArcGIS are identification of issues to improve reviewed to be able to perform

¡ Officers use laptop computers for required. the current performance duties adequately. work.

¡ High spec computers are not available.

¡ Two printers and one plotter (the plotter are currently under maintenance)

¡ 3 to 4 projectors, 3LCDs

Table 2.2.2 Summary of Needs Assessment for DMH (Human Resources) Challenges in future identified by Suggestions Items Current status identified by DMH Remarks DMH by the consultant team 2. Human resources

¡ 2-1 Knowledge and technical ¡ IFAS, HEC-RAS, RRI, ArcGIS, More training on technical skills [Short term]

skills for hydrological models and GIS ¡ Review of the current knowledge Required knowledge and technical software is required. and technical skills and skills should be regularly identification of issues for reviewed to assess the current improvement to fulfill their roles conditions and formulate and responsibilities of DMH. improvement strategies.

¡ Establishment and enhancement of A standardized mechanism should continuous training programs on be established for capacity hydrological modeling by DMH development.

¡ Introduction of advanced Advanced hydrological and hydrological and hydraulic hydraulic modeling should be modeling used to improve flood management.

¡ Participation in training held by Participation in such training is a international organizations, good opportunity for DMH to get projects, etc. support from international organizations to enhance and enlarge its capacity.

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Challenges in future identified by Suggestions Items Current status identified by DMH Remarks DMH by the consultant team

1 ¡ 2-2 Experience ¡ Training (JICA training) for IFAS GIS section under Hydrology [Short term]

model: 7 officers, Division was newly established ¡ Review of required field experience Field experience is essential in 2 ¡ HEC-RAS/HMS : 3 officers, in 2013 and requires more and development of strategies to gain disaster management.

¡ ICHARM M.Sc. Course: 3 officers training and experience. such experiences

¡ ¡ WSRF model Generally, more opportunities to

¡ Storm Surge model gain various experience are £ ¡ DMH Meteorological Grade required.

¡ 2-3 Qualification (educational ¡ Bachelor or higher degree No hydrology for Ph. Degree [Short term]

background etc.) ¡ Identification of required knowledge Identification of required

¦§¨ ©§ §  ¢¤¥ functions knowledge is the first step for relevant to water-related disaster capacity development. management

¡ Training of officers who do not have Basic knowledge of hydrology relevant academic degrees is and hydraulics is a basis for flood necessary to supplement knowledge, information management. which can be done through certificate courses, hands-on and on-the-job training on practical skills in hydrology, GIS, hazard analysis and risk assessment

Table 2.2.3 Summary of Needs Assessment for DMH (Institutional Setup) Challenges in future identified by Suggestions Items Current status identified by DMH Remarks DMH by the consultant team 3. Institutional setup

¡ 3-1 Roles and responsibilities ¡ To take precautionary measures No answer [Short term]

against and minimize the effects of ¡ Identification of important All the strategies and actions should

 ¥ ¤ ¦ natural disasters. actions to fulfill DM  be based on the roles and

¡ To promote safety, comfort, and responsibilities for flood responsibilities of DMH. efficiency and regularity of air, land management (rail & road), sea and inland water transportation.

1 IFAS is a distributed hydrological model developed by ICHARM and Japanese consultants. http://www.icharm.pwri.go.jp/research/ifas/ 2 HEC RAS/HMS is hydraulic/hydrological model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-ras/, http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-hms/

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Challenges in future identified by Suggestions Items Current status identified by DMH Remarks DMH by the consultant team

¡ To bring sustainable development of natural resources (hydroelectric power, forest produce, water use, wind energy, etc.)

¡ To promote agricultural and food production.

¡ To ensure efficient operation, planning and development of activities in natural defense, industry, health, social welfare and all sectors of national economy.

¡ To undertake international collaboration for all development activities and works of the DMH.

(Based on website of DMH)

3-2 Organizational Structure ¡ No answer [Short term]

(number of engineers and their ¡ Review of the current human The number of officers for flood role) resources and formulation of future management and the number of plans. qualified officers at regional offices are limited. Therefore, the review of the current human resources is essential to formulate future plans for undertaking roles and responsibilities of DMH.

¡ Review and enhancement of the Adequate capacity in regional offices functions of regional DMH offices should also be secured for flood

management. ¡ 3-3 Budget ¡ No information No answer [Short term]

¡ Review of the current budget A systematic approach based on allocation and future prospect for provision of a budget is necessary to activities in short-term and develop strategies. long-term plans.

¡ 3-4 Planning (short term and ¡ To upgrade the flood forecasting TWLMS should be upgraded [Short/Mid-term]

long term planning) and monitoring system, the because real time data is needed ¡ Identification of short-term and Improvement of the existing systems database management system and for the flood forecasting system. long-term targets to be reflected in requires adequate time and budget. the telemetry water level the plan to formulate strategies Therefore a systematic approach is

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Challenges in future identified by Suggestions Items Current status identified by DMH Remarks DMH by the consultant team monitoring system for all stations required. along Myanmar Rivers. 3-5 Liaison

¡ ¡ ¡ Cooperation mechanism Disseminate warnings to National Improvement should be made in [Short/Mid-term]

with other organization in Disaster Management Office, prevention and mitigation of ¡ Review and enhancement of the Cooperation with other organizations the disaster management Government offices, water related water related disasters. current coordination and for flood management is necessary to organizations /agencies, NGO, local collaboration mechanisms improve efficiency and effectiveness. community, media (radio, TV,

newspaper, website). ¡ Clarification and regular review Clarification of roles and of responsibilities, roles and tasks responsibilities is required for of relevant organizations effective cooperation.

¡ ¡ Communication method During normal time No answer [Short term]

¡ during normal time and ¡ Website, telephone inquiry Examination and enhancement of A reliable communication system is disaster the communication system with critical in flood management. During Disaster relevant organizations and

¡ Radio, TV, newspaper, website, identification of issues/problems

telephone

¡ ¡ ¡ Communication with Through TV, radio, GAD regional A siren information system [Short term]

community offices, DMH regional offices should be developed. ¡ Examination and enhancement of A reliable communication system is the communication systems with critical in flood management. communities and identification of issues/problems

¡ 3-6 Training of officers ¡ Annual training courses on Training should be provided [Short term]

(capacity development Meteorology and Hydrology ranging for observation & ¡ Enhancement of consecutive A systematic and sustainable mechanism) from Level I to Level IV. This DMH maintenance, data transfer training scheme by DMH approach is required to train officers. course includes practical training, systems, and data management

such as GIS analysis, observation systems ¡ Enhancement of hands-on and Basic knowledge of hydrology and methods, modeling. on-the-job training on practical hydraulics is a basis for flood skills in hydrology, GIS and risk management planning. assessment

¢ £¤¥¦§¨§© ¡ 3-7 Publications (annual report, ¡ Warnings: See Item 1- No answer [Short/Mid-term]

¡ bulletins, major flood ¡ Flood report Review and enhancement of Publication of flood reports is

management policies and plan) ¡ Bulletin publication of flood report forms, essential to provide information for

 ¨ ¡ methodology etc. emergency action during disasters and formulation of strategies after disasters.

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2.3 Results of Needs Assessment of Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment According to the results of the questionnaire survey for organizations relevant to risk assessment, current activities and future challenges were collected and arranged as shown in Table 2.3.1 and Table 2.3.2.

(Organizations from which a reply was collected)

¡ Relief and Resettlement Department, Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement

¡ Irrigation Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department under Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation)

¡ Myanmar Port Authority, Ministry of Transport

¡ General Administration Department, Ministry of Home Affairs (Yangon, Mandalay, Mawlamyine)

¡ Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development (later re-named as Department of Urban and Housing Development), Ministry of Construction

¡ Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems, Ministry of Transport

¡ Yangon City Development Committee, Yangon Regional Government

¡ Mandalay City Development Committee, Mandalay Regional Government

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Table 2.3.1 Summary of Questionnaire Survey for Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment (1/2) Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment Items General Administration Department (GAD) Myanmar Port Authority Relief and Resettlement Remarks Irrigation Department (ID) Mandalay Mawlamyine Yangon (MPA) Department (RRD)

1. System and technology (Current conditions)

¡ ¡ 1-1 Post disaster ¡ Inundation depth, dead/missing Dead/missing persons, Inundation depth, assessment persons affected people/households dead/missing persons,

¡ ¡ Damage to agriculture, water Damage to houses, affected supply system, government agriculture, industry, people/households,

buildings and other commerce, religious/cultural ¡ Damage to houses government facilities/services sites, water supply systems, sewage/sanitation, gas/oil transportation/storage, government buildings and other government facilities/services, infrastructure (road, railway, port, airport, hospital, school), and banking/finance

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ 1-2 Data processing and ¡ Use digital systems Use digital systems Use digital systems Use no digital systems Use digital systems (GIS, Use digital systems (GIS,

management (spreadsheet, GIS, word/text (spreadsheet, GIS) (spreadsheet) ¡ Provide data to other word/text file) electronic data sharing ¡ file) ¡ Provide data to other organizations (national and Provide data to the media system)

¡ Provide data to other organizations (national international), the media and organizations (national and and international) and the public international) the media

¡ ¡ ¡ 1-3 Utilization of past ¡ To reconstruct or repair To provide emergency To report to district/regional To provide relief supplies damage data damaged hydraulic structures, supplies and financial governments and food to affected

including financial assistance assistance ¡ To coordinate relief supplies households

¡ To identify priority actions

¡ To plan for next potential disasters

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ 1-4 Availability of risk ¡ Estimate damage for safety of Plan to conduct Conduct risk Identify risk areas by Conduct risk assessment

maps (identification of dams and hydraulic structures risk assessment in assessment reviewing past records ¡ Estimate damage ¡ any risk areas/dangerous ¡ Identify areas at risk by future Conduct risk assessment information necessary for

zones in the map, etc.) reviewing past records and ¡ Estimate loss of people, improvement in using the results of simulation damage to households, navigation channels

¡ Plan to conduct risk buildings and farmland assessment in future

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ 2. Roles and responsibilities for ¡ Awareness raising, disaster Hazard mapping Awareness-raising, Awareness-raising, disaster Awareness raising, Awareness-raising, flood risk assessment management training and and coordination disaster management management training and disaster management disaster management (based on questionnaire drills, hazard mapping, hazard training and drills, drills, hazard mapping, training and drills, training and drills, survey) analysis, risk assessment, hazard mapping, hazard analysis, designation designation of evacuation stockpiling emergency preventive/mitigation hazard analysis, risk of evacuation areas and areas/centers, hazard food and supplies, measures, hazard assessment, evacuation centers, forecasting/ monitoring, designation of evacuation forecasting/monitoring, early stockpiling emergency Preventive/mitigation search and rescue, areas and evacuation warning/alert, evacuation food and supplies and measures management of centers, and coordination

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Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment Items General Administration Department (GAD) Myanmar Port Authority Relief and Resettlement Remarks Irrigation Department (ID) Mandalay Mawlamyine Yangon (MPA) Department (RRD)

advisory, provision of coordination evacuation ¡ Early warning/alert, emergency supplies and centers/shelters, provision of emergency financial assistance, recovery provision of emergency supplies/financial of own organizations, supplies and financial assistance, and support collection of damage data, assistance, recovery of for recovery/ support for organizations, collection reconstruction recovery/reconstruction and of actual damage data, coordination coordination

3.Challenges/Needs for future improvement

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ -in the duties of the ¡ Finance, human resources, Finance, human Finance, technical Technical knowledge and Planning & management, Technical knowledge and responding organization technical knowledge/skills resources and knowledge and skills, skills, and equipment and human resources, skills

equipment/facilities and coordination equipment and facilities, and coordination technical knowledge & ¡ Equipment and facilities coordination should be facilities, and should be improved for skills, equipment & improved for hazard coordination should be preparedness (before facilities, and forecasting/monitoring, early improved for early disaster). coordination should be

warning/alert, hazard mapping, warning systems, ¡ Planning & management, improved for risk assessment and awareness real-time database finance, human resources, awareness-raising, raising. systems, storm surge equipment & facilities, and disaster management modeling. coordination should be training and drills, improved for response coordination for (during disaster). preparedness, hazard

¡ Finance, technical forecasting/monitoring

knowledge & skills should ¡ Equipment & facilities be improved for recovery and coordination should (after disaster). be improved for management of evacuation centers/shelters

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ -in the duties of the ¡ Designation of evacuation Mitigation systems of Preparedness (before Provision of emergency Water resources organizations other than areas and evacuation centers rapid onset disasters disaster): awareness-raising, supply and financial management the responding and slow onset disaster management assistance should be organizations disasters should be training & drills, hazard improved for improved mapping, hazard analysis, water-related disaster risk assessment, stockpiling management in emergency food and Myanmar. supplies, designation of evacuation areas and evacuation centers, preventive/mitigation measures, permission for development of the areas which are prone to

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Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment Items General Administration Department (GAD) Myanmar Port Authority Relief and Resettlement Remarks Irrigation Department (ID) Mandalay Mawlamyine Yangon (MPA) Department (RRD) water-related disasters, coordination

¡ Response (during disaster): Hazard forecasting or monitoring, early warning or alert, evacuation advisory, search and rescue, management of evacuation centers and shelters, provision of emergency supplies and financial assistance, coordination

¡ Recovery (after disaster): recovery of organizations, collection of actual damage data, provision of emergency supplies and financial assistance/grant, provision of loan for recovery or reconstruction, resettlement

¡ ¡ ¡ -in the collection and ¡ Upgrade the existing data Real-time database Loss and damage data Installation of automatic management of data and acquisition system by installing systems and early collection, form/definition to tide gauges along the information of a radar and telemetry system warning systems be united among Yangon River water-related disasters especially in dam & catchment departments,

areas. ¡ To be linked/coordinated

¡ Establish a database system. among departments,

¡ ¡ Data and information sharing. Data to be shared among the public.

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ -regarding risk ¡ Need to install more Skills and Technical knowledge Elevation maps need to be Enhancement of skills assessment in Myanmar hydro-meteorological stations Knowledge through the widely available, and awareness, and

(ground) to improve risk organizations related ¡ Collection of past damage equipment assessment in basins and to disasters in Mon data/record,

catchments. State, to create hazard ¡ Risk assessment method,

¡ Need to increase the capacity maps technically and tool should be developed of engineers on risk assessment scientifically, to and shared. of water-related disasters. establish a database

¡ Need to cooperate and for each disaster, an collaborate with international early warning system organizations for risk in Mon State and assessment to obtain trainings in developed international practices and countries, feasibilities experience. of disaster related organizations in Mon State.

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Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment Items General Administration Department (GAD) Myanmar Port Authority Relief and Resettlement Remarks Irrigation Department (ID) Mandalay Mawlamyine Yangon (MPA) Department (RRD)

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ 4. Other challenges in ¡ Need to install (or) establish an Preparedness, relief, Not many Community-based The shore areas of Challenges on water-related disaster early warning system in the mitigation water management Yangon, the Hlang River unsystematic urban management in Myanmar existing dams for dam safety rehabilitation and committees are organized. and the Pazundaung development

withstanding flood risks under reconstruction are ¡ Basic information is not Creek are flooded in the (the issues handled by future climate change. challenges due to the available for the public. rainy season every year CDCs and Department of

¡ Need to retrofit the existing lack of technical due to exceptional tide. Urban & Housing dams by reviewing the status know-how and budget Development (DUHD)) of dams concerning with climate change.

¡ Need to upgrade (or) repair the existing access roads to dams for emergency.

Table 2.3.2 Summary of Questionnaire Survey for Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment (2/2) Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment Yangon City Items Mandalay City Development Committee Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement Human Settlement and Housing Development Remarks Development Committee (MCDC) of River Systems (DWIR) (HSHD) (YCDC) 1. System and technology (Current conditions)

¡ 1-1 Post disaster ¡ Affected households Damage to government buildings, infrastructure

assessment ¡ Damage to houses, industry, (roads, railways, ports, airports, hospitals, religious/cultural/historic sites, infrastructure schools, religious/cultural/historic sites) (roads, railways, ports, airports, hospitals,

schools)

¡ ¡ ¡ 1-2 Data processing and ¡ to report back to regional governments Does not use digital Use digital systems (Spreadsheet, GIS) Use digital systems (Spreadsheet, GIS)

¡ ¡

management ¡ to identify priority of recovery systems Provide data to other government organizations Provide data to other government organizations ¡ ¡ to plan for next potential related Does not provide data to and academic societies and international organizations disasters other organizations

¡ 1-3 Utilization of past ¡ To analyze the design of bank protection, river For reconstruction and resettlement of affected damage data flow behavior and good waterway areas. Investigation for safer settlement and safer

places according to damage data.

¡ ¡ ¡ 1-4 Availability of risk ¡ Risk assessment to identify damage of Does not conduct risk Plan to conduct risk assessment in future Risk assessment to identify damage to housing.

¡ maps (identification of Mandalay city area: Government assessment ¡ Identify risk areas by reviewing past records Identify risk by using the results of simulation any risk buildings, roads, bridges and drains (models) of water-related disasters.

areas/dangerous zones ¡ Identify risk areas by reviewing past

in the map, etc.) records

¡ ¡ ¡ 2. Roles and responsibilities ¡ Disaster management training and drills, Coordination with other Permission for development of the areas which Awareness raising

for flood risk assessment preventive/mitigation measures, organizations are prone to water-related disasters, search and ¡ Prevention and mitigation measures

(based on questionnaire permission for development of the areas rescue, and coordination ¡ Coordination with other organizations survey) which are prone to water-related disasters, provision of emergency

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Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment Yangon City Items Mandalay City Development Committee Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement Human Settlement and Housing Development Remarks Development Committee (MCDC) of River Systems (DWIR) (HSHD) (YCDC) supplies/financial assistance, recovery of organizations, collection of damage data, provision of emergency supplies/financial assistance, and coordination with other organizations 3.Challenges/Needs for future improvement

¡ ¡ -in the duties of the ¡ Planning & management, finance, Planning & management, finance, human Planning & management, finance, technical responding human resources, technical knowledge resources, equipment & facilities and knowledge & skills and coordination should be organizations & skills, equipment & facilities, and coordination. improved for resettlement, recovery and coordination reconstruction.

¡ Finance, human resources, technical knowledge & skills should be improved for coordination

(recovery).

¡ ¡ -in the duties of the ¡ Awareness-raising Improvement in public education, disaster Reconstructed structures should be much

organizations other than ¡ Hazard mapping preparedness training, building for victims stronger than previous structures.

the responding ¡ Hazard Analysis

organizations

¡ ¡ -in the collection and ¡ Data and information-sharing Many civil societies should be organized and Specific data collection with a computer-based management of data and trained for all disasters and provided with system should be managed by national laws information of financial supports and facilities for disasters water-related disasters management.

¡ ¡ -regarding risk ¡ Skills and technical know-how for Data collection on river floods, human capacity, Risk assessment of water-related disaster should

assessment in Myanmar disaster management. preparedness activities, early warning systems be improved in knowledge on risk assessment ¡ ¡ Risk assessment methods and skills of disaster respond management Risk assessment should be performed for various should be improved disasters with appropriate technicians for research papers.

4. Other challenges in ¡ Need to upgrade and repair the drainage Challenges in public education, public water-related disaster system participation, activation of technical law (rules management in Myanmar & regulations), public awareness in early warning systems

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2.4 Recommendations for Future Improvement on Risk Assessment in Myanmar According to the results of the questionnaire survey for organizations relevant to risk assessment, several organizations responded that they have conducted or will conduct risk assessment to identify risk areas. However they rarely assess damage caused by hazards such as floods and storm surges due to a lack of in-house expertise and skills of damage assessment. With this in mind, the following recommendations are made:

2.4.1 Basic Framework for Risk Assessment

¡ Formulate a strategy of capacity development in risk assessment to acquire skills and knowledge;

¡ Prepare guidelines and manuals for risk assessment and formulate a strategy for flood disaster risk reduction;

¡ Secure financial and human resources to conduct and utilize risk assessment; and

¡ Systematize and stipulate the process of risk assessment to guarantee the sustainability of risk assessment and the quality of its results.

2.4.2 Data Management and Processing

¡ Establish a mechanism to collect damage data after a disaster and improve the existing database system to archive collected data in the form of electronic data;

¡ Develop risk indicators which describe the correlation of intensity of hazard with resulting damage by arranging and processing collected damage data and hazard records;

¡ Enhance the cooperative scheme among the owner organizations of damage and hazard data, and encourage them to share collected data for the development of risk indicators; and

¡ Improve the existing data collection system (telemetry, radar, etc.) and the transfer system of real-time data on hydro-meteorological and tidal information.

2.4.3 Utilization of Risk Assessment

¡ Utilize risk indicators in risk assessment to simulate prospects of future damage risk;

¡ Develop risk maps to share the information; and

¢ Formulate a strategy for flood disaster risk reduction based on evidence from risk assessment, and compare proposed options in effectiveness.

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CHAPTER 3 DATA COLLECTION

The objective of this data collection is to facilitate the two activities of TA-8456 Part II: 1) hydrological/hydraulic analysis of floods and storm surges, and 2) risk assessment for floods and storm surges.

This chapter summarizes data collection activities conducted in this project. Detailed information on

¥¨ © § ¥ £ §¥¨       data collection is described in a separate report entitled ¡¢£¤ ¥¦§ , initially submitted to ADB in March 2015 and to DMH in April 2015, and was revised in May 2016.

3.1 General Descriptions 3.1.1 Identification of Data/Information Requirements for TA-8456 Part II The Part II Consultant Team prepared a list of data to be collected and used as input for hydrological/hydraulic modeling and flood risk assessment. Subsequently, necessary data/information for generating output of this TA was identified. Table 3.1.1 and Table 3.1.2 show a list of necessary data/information for hydrological/hydraulic modeling and flood risk assessment, respectively. In both tables, basic data required for this modeling and assessment and their purposes are underlined and highlighted in bold.

Table 3.1.1 List of Data/Information Necessary for Hydrological/Hydraulic Modeling of Floods and Storm Surges ID Classification Data/Information Purpose Remarks Flood and Investigative report of past Understanding of flood patterns and storm-surge flood and storm-surge conditions in Myanmar River Basins hazard data inundation Model calibration (inundation areas) Past flood and storm-surge M1 Ditto inundation data/maps Existing flood and storm-surge hazard maps Ditto Inventory of Inventory of hydrological Understanding a hydrological observation M2 hydrological data network and data availability data Meteorological Rainfall data Input data for RRI Model M3 data Other Meteorological Data Parameter settings, if any e.g. evaporation data Rivers River discharge data Understanding flood conditions Model calibration for RRI Model M4 Cross section data Setting up model parameters for river width and depth of RRI Model, if any Dams Dam operation data Input data for RRI Model, if any

M5 Specifications of dams Parameter settings for dam operation Potential dam sites For inundation analysis in future conditions, if any Dikes Inventory of dikes Understanding river/channel networks M6 and data availability, if any Irrigation and Inventory of major Input data for RRI Model, if any drainage canals irrigation and drainage M7 canals Inventory of major Modeling operation of regulators, if any regulators Pumps Inventory of pumps Development of RRI Model (with M8 pumps), if any

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ID Classification Data/Information Purpose Remarks Land elevation Land elevation Development of RRI Model (with river Available from basin data) website M9 e.g. SRTM, ASTER-GDEM, etc. Land use Land use classification Set-up of roughness coefficients and Available from M10 permeability website. e.g. GLCC, etc. Tide Tide data Lower boundary conditions for RRI M11 Model Strom surge Path of a cyclone Calibration of storm surge model Available from analysis web-site M12 Observed storm surge Calibration of storm surge model

heights, tide data GIS GIS data Preparation of a base map Some are available from website. e.g. national/region M13 boundaries, major roads, water bodies, etc. Roads Characteristic information Development of RRI Model (continuous M14 of major roads that might structures in river basins) influence flood inundation Maps Topography map data Development of RRI Model Some maps are M15 Preparation of river basin data, available from identification of land use condition, etc. website. Rainfall Satellite-based rainfall Input data for RRI Model Available from In the case of insufficient observed website M16 rainfall data e.g. GSMaP, 3B42RT, etc. Land use MODIS time series data Set-up of roughness coefficients in flood Available from M17 plains website DEM, Land use ALOS data Development of RRI Model (river basin DEM is available data) from website. M18 Set-up of roughness coefficients in river e.g. LANDSAT basins ALOS is charged Strom surge Bathymetry data Development of storm surge model Available from M19 analysis website e.g. SRTM+ Cyclones Path of a Cyclone Calibration of storm surge model Available from M20 website

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Table 3.1.2 List of Data/Information Necessary for Flood/Storm Surge Risk Assessment ID Classification Data/Information Purpose Remarks Past flood/storm surge Evaluation of past flood/storm surge damage data and damage. information (house e.g. correlation between scales of

buildings, agriculture, flood/storm surge and actual damage A1 Disaster record industry, infrastructure, fatalities, etc.) Local damage Ditto information River systems, land cover Understanding natural conditions of a Available data: Natural and information on target river basin HydroSHEDS river A2 Conditions swamp areas data, global land cover data Administration system Housing Evaluation of damage potential

(exposure) Social A3 Population Evaluation of damage potential Conditions (exposure) Statistics Understanding exiting social conditions Others Roads, railways, urban Evaluation of damage potential drainage systems, (exposure) sewerage systems, A4 Infrastructure agricultural facilities, and other important infrastructure Roles/responsibilities of Identification of organizations/agencies in

Disaster agencies/organizations charge of flood management A5 prevention Evacuation/recovery Evaluation of resilience (vulnerability) Planning Statistical data on Evaluation of agricultural damage Statistical data on agricultural agricultural production/yield, current production are A6 Agriculture market prices available Cropping pattern Evaluation of agricultural damage by

season Irrigation Building codes Evaluation of damage potential (exposure)

Evaluation of resilience (vulnerability) A7 Legal systems Disaster management law,

etc. Flood control/ A8 management facilities A9 Others Basin management plan

3.1.2 Methodology of Data/Information Collection from Myanmar Side The consultant team employed the following methodology to collect data/information necessary for hydrological/hydraulic modeling and flood and storm-surge risk assessment.

¡ Questionnaire survey (pre-survey)

¡ Meetings with relevant organizations in Myanmar

¡ Written requests through DMH

¡ Desk work

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No. Procedures Description data/information provision. Based on the results of Activities 2 and 3, data/information 4 Information analysis inventory was prepared (October-November 2014). Based on the results of Activity 4, the consultant team Preparation of data request prepared data request forms for flood analysis and risk 5 form assessment to send to organizations relevant to flood management (November 2014). Request letters with the data request forms for flood analysis and risk assessment for DMH and other organizations relevant 6 Data request to risk assessment were submitted to DMH on 20 November 2014. The data request forms were delivered to other organizations via DMH Nay Pyi Taw on 5 December 2014. Some agencies (DMH*, DWIR*, MPA, ID/DAP*, YCDC, RRD*) submitted the data (*partially) (as of 28 February Data collection and 2015). The follow-up activities were carried out to collect 7 verification responses from other organizations (MCDC, MWTDC, GAD, HSHD, RRD). The received data and information were verified. Based on the results of Activity 7, the Data Collection Report was prepared. The provisional version of the report was prepared in early March 2015 and it was submitted to ADB on 12 March 2015. In early April 2015, the report was revised

8 Reporting

¡ ¢ £¤¥¦¤ §¡ ¨© §¢ ¤¡   ¡   ¡ ¡¤  ¡ ¢ ©   delivered to other related organizations through DMH on 10 April 2015. The final version of the report was delivered to all the organizations concerned on 23 May 2016.

3.2 Data Collection 3.2.1 Data/Information Holders The consultant team firstly conducted a pre-survey during the inception stage (August and September 2014) to investigate the availability of data/information relevant to the activities of TA-8456 Part II and organizations responsible for managing data/information. DMH identified the following thirteen (13) national, local and technical institutions in Myanmar which were considered to be relevant to hazard analysis and risk assessment:

1H Irrigation Department (ID) (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department)

2H Survey Department (SD)

3H Myanmar Port Authority (MPA)

4H General Administration Department (GAD)

5H Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC)

6H Mandalay City Development Committee (MCDC)

7H Mawlamyine Township Development Committee (MWTDC) (Mawlamyine District Government, Mon State Government)

8H Relief and Resettlement Department (RRD)

9H Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development (HSHD) (later re-named as Department of Urban and Housing Development (DUHD))

10H Department of Agriculture Planning (DAP) (later re-named as Department of Planning)

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11H Water Resources Utilization Department (WRUD) (later Irrigation Department and Water Resources Utilization Department were merged and re-named as Irrigation and Water Utilization Management Department)

12H Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River (DWIR)

13H Myanmar Engineering Society (MES)

Necessary data/information available in each related organization was identified through a questionnaire survey on data availability. The responses from related organizations were collected at the Inception Meeting held on 16 September 2014. After data/information holders are identified through the questionnaire survey, necessary data/information was requested to eleven (11) related organizations as shown in Table 3.2.1.

Table 3.2.1 List of Organizations for Data Request S.N. Organization Remarks Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), 1 Ministry of Transport, Nay Pyi Taw Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems 2 (DWIR), Ministry of Transport, Nay Pyi Taw Myanmar Port Authority (MPA), 3 Ministry of Transport, Yangon Survey Department (SD) 4 Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation, Nay Pyi Taw 5 Mandalay City Development Committee (MCDC), Mandalay Mawlamyine Township Development Committee (MWTDC), 6 Mawlamyine 7 Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC), Yangon General Administration Department (GAD), 8 Ministry of Home Affairs Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development (HSHD), 9 Ministry of Construction, Nay Pyi Taw Department of Agriculture Planning (DAP), 10 Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Nay Pyi Taw Relief and Resettlement Department (RRD), 11 Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement, Nay Pyi Taw

Table 3.2.2 and Table 3.2.3 summarize the results of the survey on data availability for hydrological/hydraulic modeling and flood/storm surge risk assessment, respectively. Provided from Table 3.2.4 to Table 3.2.8 are specifications for each data/information item for the survey.

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E Data exist Data do not exist Survey Sheet was not returned Table 3.2.2 Result of the Survey on Data Availability for Hydrological/Hydraulic Modeling

MWCDC Data Classification Data Item Data Owners DMH ID SD MPA GAD YCDC MCDC RRD HSHD DAP MES WRUD DWIR (TDC)

Investigative report of past flood and storm

¡ ¡ DMH/GAD/MCDC ¡ surge inundation

Past flood and storm surge inundation

M1 Flood and Storm surge hazards data MCDC ¡ data/maps

Existing flood hazards and storm surge ¡ DMH/MCDC ¡

hazards maps

¡ ¡

M2 Inventory of Hydrological data Inventory of Hydrological data DMH/ID/WRUD ¡

¡ ¡ ¡ Rainfall data DMH/ID/GAD/MCDC ¡

M3 Meteorological data ¡

Other Meteorological Data DMH/MCDC ¡

¡ ¡ River Discharge Data DMH/ID/MCDC ¡

M4 River ¡

Cross section data MCDC/DWIR ¡

¡ ¡ Dam Operation Data ID/MCDC/MWCDC ¡

M5 Dam

¡ ¡

Specifications of dam DMH/ID/MCDC ¡ ¡ Potential dam sites ID/MCDC ¡

M6 Dike Inventory of Dikes ID ¡

Inventory of major irrigation and drainage

ID ¡ canals M7 Irrigation and Drainage canals

Inventory of major Regulators ID ¡ ¡

M8 Pump Inventory of Pumps MCDC/WRUD ¡

¡ ¡

M9 Land elevation Land elevation DMH/MCDC/DWIR ¡

¡ ¡ ¡

M10 Land use Land use classification GAD/YCDC/MWCDC/HSHD ¡ ¡ M11 Tide Tide Data DMH/ID ¡

Path of Cyclone DMH ¡ M12 Strom surge analysis

Observed storm surge heights DMH ¡

¡ ¡ M13 GIS GIS data DMH/MCDC/DWIR ¡

Characteristic information of major roads that

M14 Road GAD ¡

might influence flood inundation

¡ ¡ M15 Map Topography map data GAD/MCDC/DWIR ¡

M16 Rainfall Satellite based M17 Land use MODIS time series data M18 DEM, Land use ALOS data

M19 Strom Surge analysis Bathymetry data M20 Cyclone Path of Cyclone

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¡ Data exist Data do not exist Table 3.2.3 Result of the Survey on Data Availability for Flood/Storm Surge Risk Assessment Survey Sheet was not returned

MWCDC Data Classification Data item Data Owners DMH ID SD MPA GAD YCDC MCDC RRD HSHD DAP MES WRUD DWIR (TDC)

DMH/ID/GAD/YCDC/

E E E E Flood/Storm surge E

A1 Disaster record MCDC E

Local Info ID/MCDC E E River system ID/MCDC E

A2 Natural Conditions Land cover / Land use - E Information on Swamp areas MCDC/MWCDC E

GAD/MCDC/MWCDC/DWI

E E E Administration E

R E Household/Housing MCDC/MWCDC E

Household Assets MCDC E

E E Population GAD/MCDC/MWCDC E

A3 Social Conditions Statistics - Income and Poverty MCDC E

E E Statistics - Industry GAD/MCDC/MWCDC E

Information - Informal Sector MCDC E

Social information (location of schools, E GAD/MCDC E health center, evacuation shelter etc.)

Other socio-economic data MCDC E

Road and railway networks

E E GAD/MCDC/MWCDC E

Urban drainage/sewerage system, pumping YCDC/MCDC/MWCDC

E E A4 Infrastructure E stations, water supply facilities, etc.

Information of other important MCDC/MWCDC E infrastructure E

Information on Roles/Responsibility on E GAD/MCDC E Flood Management

Evacuation/Recovery routes, GAD/MCDC/MWCDC/

E E E communication RRD E

Information on emergency/recovery plans

E E GAD/MCDC/RRD E and systems

Planning - Ongoing/planned projects in the

E E E ID/MCDC/MWCDC/RRD E A5 Disaster prevention target cities relevant to flood management

Planning - Existing plans on disaster

E E E ID/GAD/MCDC/RRD E management

Planning - existing flood manaegment E MCDC/RRD E

related urban services

E E Planning - resettlement plan GAD/MCDC/RRD E

Planning - Existing master plan for river E MCDC/RRD E basins

Statistics MCDC E

A6 Agriculture Cropping pattern MCDC E E

Irrigation ID/MCDC E E Building MCDC/MWCDC E

A7 Legal system E Disaster management etc. ID/MCDC E Location of facilities for disaster prevention

MCDC E and communication

Location and information on

E E ID/YCDC/MCDC E Flood control/ dams/reservoirs/barrages A8

Management system Location and information on dikes and other E ID/MCDC E river structures

Location and information on dikes and other E ID/MCDC E structures in coastal areas

Utilization of Flood Water MCDC E

Information on local coping capacity MCDC E A9 Others

Basin Plan MCDC E

Others MCDC E

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Table 3.2.4 Specifications of Each Data Item for Hydrological/Hydraulic Modeling (1/3) Data/ Related ID Classification Specification Information Agencies Investigative · Rivers: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago and Thanlwin report of past (Especially Yangon, Mawlamyine, Mandalay) DMH/GAD flood and · Type of data: digital data (if possible) /MCDC storm surge · Elements: meteorological summary, damage situation, etc. inundation · Rivers: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago and Thanlwin Flood and Past flood and (Especially Yangon, Mawlamyine, Mandalay) M1 storm-surge storm-surge · Period: current, past MCDC hazard data inundation · Type of data: digital data (if possible) data/maps · Elements: records of inundation areas with depth and duration, satellite images on flood and storm-surge damage Existing flood · Rivers: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago and Thanlwin and (Especially Yangon, Mawlamyine, Mandalay) DMH/MCDC storm-surge · Type of data: digital data (if possible) hazard maps · Elements: hazard maps Inventory of Inventory of · Inventory book of DMH rainfall, water level stations including location DMH/ID M2 Hydrological Hydrological maps, coordinates of stations (Lon/Lat), river basins, periods of observation, /WRUD data data methods of observation, etc. · Stations: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin · Period: as long as available (1960 - 2013) DMH/ID/GAD Rainfall data · Type of data: daily /MCDC · Elements: rain, locations (Lon/Lat) Meteorological · Stations :Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin M3 data · Period: as long as available (1960- 2013) Other · Type of data: daily Meteorological DMH/MCDC Data · Elements: locations (Lon/Lat), temperature (maximum, minimum, average), radiation (sunshine duration, short/long wave), relative humidity, wind speed/direction, air pressure, precipitation) · Stations: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin River · Period: as long as available (1960- 2013) DMH/ID Discharge · Type of data: daily /MCDC Data · Elements: river discharge, water level, locations (Lon/Lat) · Rivers: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin Especially near Yangon, M4 Rivers Mawlamyine, Mandalay incl. Hlang, Bago etc. Cross section · Period: current , past MCDC/DWIR data · Type of data: digital data (if possible) · Elements: cross sections of rivers, coordinates of locations (Lon/Lat), year of survey · Stations: Ayeyarwady, Bago, Thanlwin Dam · Period: as long as available (1960- 2013) ID/MCDC Operation · Type of data: daily /MWCDC Data · Elements: daily inflow, outflow, storage, water level, locations (Lon/Lat) · Stations: Ayeyarwady, Bago, Thanlwin Specifications · Type of data: Specification data M5 Dams of dams · Elements: locations (Lat/Lon), salient features, established year, objectives, DMH/ID/MCDC operation rules, records of sedimentation, Water level-area-storage curves · Stations: Ayeyarwady, Bago, Thanlwin Potential dam · Type of data: Digital data (if possible) ID/MCDC sites · Elements: coordinates of locations (Lon/Lat), geological maps, potential reservoir capacity, study reports · Rivers: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin (Especially near Yangon, Mawlamyine, Mandalay, incl. Hlang, Bago etc.) Inventory of · Period: current, past M6 Dikes ID Dikes · Type of data: digital data (if possible) · Elements: location maps, length, cross sections, establishment year, design scale (return period), year of construction Inventory of · Rivers: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin major · Type of data: specification data irrigation and · Elements: location maps, purposes, typical cross sections, design discharge drainage Irrigation and canals M7 drainage ID · Rivers: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin canals Inventory of · Type of data: specification data major · Elements: coordinates of locations (Lon/Lat), gate types, dimensions, regulators discharge capacity, establishment year, objectives, operation rules, daily operation records (discharge)

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Table 3.2.5 Specifications of Each Data Item for Hydrological/Hydraulic Modeling (2/3) Data/ Related ID Classification Specification Information Agencies · Area: Yangon, Mawlamyine, Mandalay · Type of data: specification data Inventory of M8 Pumps · Elements: coordinates of locations (Lon/Lat), gate types, dimensions, MCDC/WRUD pumps discharge capacity, establishment years, objectives, operation rules, daily operation records (discharge) · Area: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin (Especially around Yangon, Mawlamyine, Mandalay) · Period : 1980-2011 DMH/MCDC M9 Land elevation Land elevation · Type of data: digitized data (if possible), typical raster format (GeoTIFF /DWIR format etc.) · Elements : elevation · Stations: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin GAD/YCDC/ Land use · Period: current, past M10 Land use MWTDC classification · Type of data: digital data (if possible) /HSHD · Elements: land use classification maps · Station: Martaban Gulf · Period: as long as available M11 Tide Tide data · Type of data: hourly/annual DMH/ID · Elements: locations (Lon/Lat), hourly tide data, annual maximum, mean and minimum tide level, astronomical tide level, etc. · Area: Around Myanmar Path of a · Type of data: digital data (if possible) cyclone Strom surge · Elements: longitude, latitude, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, etc. M12 DMH analysis · Area: Around Yangon, Mawlamyine Observed storm · Period: time of high water surge heights · Type of data: digital data (if possible) · Area: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin · Type of data: GIS data · Elements: rivers and canal networks, lakes, road networks, land use, DMH/MCDC M13 GIS GIS data topography (DEM and contour lines), geology, vegetation, structures, /DWIR towns, railways, public utilities, industrial estates, satellite images, administration boundaries (province, district, sub district, village), basin boundaries, regional office boundaries, etc. Characteristic · Area: Flood inundation areas in Yangon, Mawlamyine, Mandalay information of · Period: past and current major roads M14 Roads · Type of data: digital data (if possible) GAD that might · Elements: locations, length, cross sections, elevation, establishment years influence flood inundation · Area: Ayeyarwady, Yangon, Bago, Thanlwin Topography GAD/MCDC M15 Maps · Type of data: hard copy and/or digital (if possible) map data /DWIR · Elements: -

Table 3.2.6 Specifications of Each Data Item for Hydrological/Hydraulic Modeling (3/3) (Available in Japan) Data/ Related ID Classification Specification Information Agencies M16 Rainfall Satellite based · Area: project area - MODIS time · Area: project area M17 Land use - series data · Area: project area M18 DEM, land use ALOS data - ALOS: Advanced Land Observing Satellite Strom surge Bathymetry · Area: project area M19 - analysis data · Area: around Myanmar - Path of a · Type of data: digital data (if possible) - M20 Cyclones cyclone · Elements: longitude, latitude, atmospheric pressure, wind speed radius of - the cyclone, etc.

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Table 3.2.7 Specifications of Each Data Item for Risk Assessment (1/2) Data/ Related ID Classification Specification Information Agencies Past flood and storm-surge damage data (house buildings, assets, agriculture, industry, infrastructure, fatalities and others) and their Flood/Storm DMH/ID/GAD/YC relationships with hazards (flood depth, duration and velocity), flood Disaster surge DC/MCDC A1 and storm-surge damage curves record Any information on local risk awareness and past disaster Local Info ID/MCDC experiences (can be obtained from local survey, if needed) River systems (related to M4, M15) ID/MCDC Natural Land cover data/land use data (related to M10) - A2 Conditions Information on swamp areas if any (location, area, use as retarding MCDC/MWTDC basin, etc.) Administrative boundary data (national, region, provincial, GAD/MCDC/MW Administration municipality/district, village/lowest government unit level) TDC/DWIR Household/building distribution data (e.g. house/office/factory/hospital/schools/any important public facility of religious and cultural values (e.g. temples), etc. depending on needs and importance for Myanmar Govt.). Building materials, structure, etc. of buildings, Illegal settlements in the flood prone areas (if any), MCDC/MWTDC Housing location and areas of industrial zones. Information on household types and their percentages of distribution Information on floor levels of house buildings and floor heights Average value of house buildings in the target cities per sq. km Average value of household assets in the target cities per sq. km MCDC Population distribution data, demographic characteristics (age, Social GAD/MCDC/MW A3 Population gender, other vulnerable groups such as disabled, population Conditions TDC movement in day and night, etc.) Income and poverty statistics MCDC Industrial census (or any existing statistics) (if needed) including the Statistics number of factories by size (in number and in sq.m etc. in various GAD/MCDC/MW manufacturing sector, etc.). Information on the number of small and TDC medium sized industries, etc. (if needed). Information on informal sector (small stalls, self-employed workers, MCDC specific location where they are densely distributed, etc.) (if needed) Social information such as the locations/names of schools, health GAD/MCDC Others centers, evacuation shelters, etc. Socio-economic data, including characteristics of ethnic groups, religions, etc. if they are regarded to influence vulnerability or coping MCDC capacity Road and railway network data (related to M14) GAD/MCDC/MW TDC Urban drainage systems/sewerage systems YCDC/MCDC/MT CDC Locations of and information on pumping stations, water supply YCDC/MCDC/M A4 Infrastructure facilities, sewerage facilities, agricultural facilities (related to M8) WTDC Information of other important infrastructure (power plants, water purification/treatment plants, gas supply facilities, main roads, MCDC/MWTDC transport networks, incineration plants, etc. (if needed and if any may increase secondary damage of the flood)

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Table 3.2.8 Specifications of Each Data Item for Risk Assessment (2/2) Data/ Related ID Classification Specification Information Agencies Roles/ Information of roles and responsibilities of each related local institute responsibilities for flood management. Any important stakeholders for local flood GAD/MCDC of agencies/ management (For example, big industry, religious groups etc. if there organizations are any) Existing evacuation routes in case of emergency, if any GAD/MCDC Road networks to be used for emergency transportation Evacuation/ /MWTDC/RRD Emergency communication tools to inform residents of warnings recovery Information on emergency and recovery plans and systems GAD/MCDC /RRD Ongoing/planned projects (and/or training workshops, etc.) in the target Disaster A5 cities relevant to flood management and flood risk management (JICA, prevention ID/MCDC ADB, WB, EU, other donors, UN agencies, IFRC etc. (For example, /MWTDC/RRD JICA project that supports the development of a master plan for the Ayeyarwady River and past JICA projects for Yangon city. Existing plans on disaster management ID/GAD Planning /MCDC/RRD Existing flood management related urban services, and any reports on MCDC/RRD existing urban services business operation plans (if any) Resettlement plan for possible inundation areas GAD/MCDC /RRD Existing master plan for the development of river basins MCDC/RRD Agriculture production/yield statistical data, yield per hectare (long term data) Statistics Current market-price agriculture yield Average income from rice yield and other major agricultural corps MCDC (long term data) A6 Agriculture Cropping calendar to obtain information on agricultural cultivation Cropping Information of agricultural planning with their duration and height in pattern each stage Irrigation Current conditions of the irrigation system (location, capacity ID/MCDC operation) Building codes/laws on building or any guideline for building MCDC Buildings /MWTDC A7 Legal systems Disaster National laws, regulations, and strategies for disaster management or management, disaster risk reduction or flood management, river management, etc. ID/MCDC etc. Existing flood and storm-surge management plans in the target areas. Locations of and information on facilities for water disaster prevention (storage, etc.), important facilities for local communication (siren, radio MCDC

communication system, etc.) Flood control/ Locations of and information on existing dams/reservoirs/barrages with ID/YCDC A8 management their operation rules and specifications /MCDC facilities Locations of and information on dikes and other river structures and specifications ID/MCDC Locations and specifications of existing dikes/any structures in coastal areas Flooding Water Information on existing utilization of flood water as a benefit (only the Utilization use of "flood water" or general sector-wise water use) Any relevant information on local coping capacity (self-organized local groups, etc.) Key issues on flood management in Department of Meteorology and Hydrology and in target cities A9 Others MCDC Annual planning/activities/training programs of Department of Meteorology and Hydrology Methods, guidelines and reports concerning existing flood and storm-surge damage/risk assessment Existing master plans, implementation plans for the development of Basin Plan river basins NOTE* DMH: Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, ID: Irrigation Department, DAP: Department of Agriculture Planning, DWIR: Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of river system, MPA: Myanmar Port Authority, MOC: Ministry of Construction, RRD: Relief and Resettlement Department, SD: Survey Department, MSE: Myanmar Engineering Society, GAD: General Administration Department, YCDC: Yangon City Development Committee, MCDC: Mandalay City Development Committee, MWTDC: Mawlamyine Township Development Committee, WRUD: Water Resources Utilization Department, HSHD: Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development

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3.2.2 Collected Data As of October 2016, the data/information shown in Annex-4 was collected from related organizations in Myanmar. The detailed status and list of collected data/information are also shown in Annex-4.

Since the data/information obtained from the Myanmar government was not sufficient for the purpose

¢£¤¥¦§¤ ¨§©§ © ¤ ¨ of hydrological/hydraulic modeling and risk assessment ¡ to conduct flood inundation analysis and flood risk assessment. Global data used in this TA-8456 included globally available data such as HydroSHEDS/SRTM (elevation, flow accumulation, flow direction) data, satellite-observed rainfall such as GSMaP, Global Land Cover Data, sea floor data (SRTM Plus) for storm surge analysis, cyclone track, air pressure data, demography data at the township level, free GIS data, etc. Table 3.2.9 shows major global data sets.

Table 3.2.9 Summary of Major Global Data Name of Global No. Description Application to TA-8456 Data Set HydroSHEDS HydroSHEDS is released by USGS, which HydroSHEDS was utilized for provides useful information for modeling, training purpose, e.g. including river networks, watershed hydrological/hydraulic boundaries, drainage directions, and flow modeling by using RRI Model 1 accumulations. HydroSHEDS is created training, and preparation of from Space Shuttle flight for NASA's Shuttle initial flood hazard mapping. Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). http://hydrosheds.cr.usgs.gov/index.php SRTM-Plus SRTM-Plus is a dataset which was SRTM-Plus was employed for complemented bathymetry data to SRTM. modeling the sea floor for the 2 (Shuttle Radar http://topex.ucsd.edu/WWW_html/srtm30_plu storm surge model because Topography s.html bathymetry along coastal line Mission Plus) in Myanmar is not measured. GSMaP GSMaP is one of the useful projects for global GSMaP was used for training (Global meteorological services on global precipitation purpose. In the case of Satellite mapping by using satellite data. The GSMaP low-availability of rainfall data, Mapping of project has been operated by the JAXA GSMaP was utilized for RRI 3 Precipitation) Precipitation Measuring Mission (PMM) Model simulation as Science Team since 2007. complementation of ground http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP_crest/index rainfall data. .html 3B42RT The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42RT was not utilized in (TRMM) is a joint U.S. and Japan satellite this TA project. This data set mission for monitoring tropical and subtropical was only introduced for 4 precipitation and estimation of associated participants at the trainings. latent heating. NASA has released quasi-real time rainfall data set (3 hours rainfall data). http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/ GLCC GLCC is a series of global land cover GLCC was utilized at risk (Global Land classification datasets released by USGS. assessment training in order to 5 Cover https://lta.cr.usgs.gov/GLCC. identify urban areas and Characterizatio agriculture areas for damage n) estimation.

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The basic data sets identified as necessary for flood disaster risk assessment in TA-8456 Part II are as follows:

¡ Disaster records: data and information on hazards and damage in past flood events (e.g. house buildings, assets, agriculture, industry, infrastructure, etc.)

¡ Natural conditions: land cover data, river systems

¡ Social conditions: administrative boundaries, housing information (house value, household/building distribution data, household types, etc.), population, and other types of social information

¡ Infrastructure: roads and railways, locations and information of public service facilities such as pumping stations, water supply facilities, sewerage systems, etc.

¡ Industry: locations and information of industrial zones, information of important industrial plants, etc.

¡ Agriculture information: agriculture production/yield data, value of agriculture production, cropping patterns, etc.

Table 3.2.10 shows a list of collected data for risk assessment from related organizations in Myanmar. The collected data/information on past flood damage and socio-economic information were useful for risk assessment. Globally available data, such as global land cover data, LANDSCAN global population data, and HydroSHEDS river data, were also used for risk assessment in this TA-8456 Part II.

Table 3.2.10 Collected Data for Risk Assessment from Related Organizations in Myanmar S.N. Organization Obtained Data 1 Relief and Resettlement (i) Water related disaster frequencies, damaged houses, total Department value of damage, number of affected families/people (Country level data), for 2004 to 2013 2 Irrigation Department and (i) Flood damage data of agricultural crops for Bago Region Department of Agricultural from 1999-2014: affected area of paddy, maize, etc. Planning (ii) Flood damage data of agricultural crops, e.g. paddy, green gram, sesame, etc. (Regional level data for all regions), for 2004, 2007, 2013, 2014 and 2015: Crop damage area, affected area, losses area.

(iii) Township-level data on damaged area of rice crop fields in Yangon region, Mandalay region, Mon state and Bago region (for 2004, 2007, 2013, 2014 and 2015).

(iv) Landslide damage data for 2015 (for Chin and Shan states): crop damaged area, crop affected area.

(v) Cropping patterns for Sagaing region, Mandalay region, Yangon region, Nay Pyi Taw region, Mon state and Kayin state.

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S.N. Organization Obtained Data (vi) Myanmar Agriculture at a Glance-2013 (publication of Department of Agriculture Planning): Regional level population data, national gross domestic product, land resources, water resources, crop production.

(vii) Map of flooded area and drainage area locations in Mawlamyine (image file).

(viii) Information on river structures such as dams, embankments, drainage and sluice gates in Mawlamyine (image file). 3 General Administration (i) Population of Mawlamyine Department (ii) PPT file of flood situation and response during the flood in 2013.

4 Directorate of Water Resources (i) GIS data on administrative boundaries (national, state, and Improvement of River Systems district, township)

(ii) Point GIS data (city/town/villages)

5 Yangon City Development (i) Disaster records of past major flood events in Yangon (7 Committee June 1997 and 8 September 2002):

¡ No. of affected households,

¡ Affected population

(ii) Population data by district in 1998 and 2011, annual growth rate, population density

(iii) Yangon city land use map (pdf file)

(iv) Social conditions of Yangon city:

¡ Number of factories in industrial zones (2011-2012)

(v) Information on infrastructure:

¡ Urban drainage system maps/information (pdf file)

¡ Urban sewerage system maps/information (pdf file)

¡ Road and railway network data (pdf file)

For identification of exposed elements such as paddy fields and affected population in hazard areas, globally available data were also used in this TA-8456 Part II, while it is recommended to collect and use in-situ data in the future.

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3.2.3 Additionally Collected Data (1) Population Data In order to evaluate flood risk, detailed population data are required to identify population exposed to the flood. As of June 2015, the distribution of population at the district level was obtained from the Myanmar side. However, the district level data was not sufficient to estimate the proper number of affected people by a flood disaster. Therefore, commercial population data (30

1

¥¢¦ ¦§¡ ¨©¢ ¡ ¥¢   ¦ ¢¦ ¦¢£  ¢£¢ arc-second grid (approximately 1 km) ¡¢£ ¢¤ for Myanmar was procured in September 2015. This population data set was utilized for flood risk assessment (see Chapter 5).

(2) Finer Digital Elevation Model and Bench Mark Data There was a request from ADB to confirm the water level of a 100-year flood in Mandalay in order to check the safety of a structure planned near the river. Since the initial analysis undertaken by this project used freely available data of HydroSHEDS based on SRTM for land elevation, the result includes a certain margin of error because of the limitation of data quality; therefore, higher

resolution data were needed in order to check the safety of the structure. To this end, the consultant

 ¤ ¥¢¦¦§ ¡ ¨   ¢ ¡¢ ¦¢!   ¢ ¥" team procured a finer Digital Elevation Mode ¦ 2016, which was also procured for Yangon and Mawlamyine to produce the same quality of flood hazard maps for the three cities. AW3D is created with satellite images by Digital Globe (US Aerial Company) and released by NTT DATA, Japan, which has a 2 m spatial resolution with more vertical accuracy compared with SRTM. Because of the limitation of the project budget, AW3D data was only procured for the central area of the three cities and connected to the SRTM data that cover the remaining part of the cities outside the central area. Another important point is that satellite data uses geoid height and thus only provides information on relative height unless geoid height is adjusted by the ground topographic survey data such as bench mark data. As long as simulation of flood inundation area and depth is concerned, satellite data can reproduce past inundation fairly well, indicating that relative height is good enough for such analysis and this method is applicable to other places in Myanmar where ground surveyed data are not sufficiently available. In the Mandalay case, in which comparison between the structure design and the height of inundation was necessary, geoid height was adjusted by using bench mark data provided by MCDC and was used for the structure design. In the Mandalay case, the consultant team was also able to use actual river cross-section survey data acquired from DWIR for the target area of Mandalay. The revised map using these data provided more accurate information on flood hazard inundation to verify the safety of the structure planned in Mandalay.

(3) Cropping Pattern and Agricultural Damage Data Flood damage to agriculture (rice crop) depends on the stage of crops during the flood period. To identify the stage of rice crop during a flood event, cropping patterns and calendars are necessary. Data on rice cropping patterns were collected at the meeting on 4 April 2016 for the target areas of Mandalay/Sagaing, Yangon/Nay Pyi Taw and Mon State from the Department of Agricultural Planning, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation. The collected cropping patterns were used to identify the stage of rice crop for flood disaster risk assessment (see Chapter 5). The consultant team also collected data on areas with agricultural (rice-crops) damage in Yangon region, Mandalay region, Mon state and Bago region for the years 2004, 2007, 2013, 2014 and

1 LandScan: http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/

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2015 from the Department of Agricultural Planning. The calculated data on rice-crop damage areas were compared with the collected data on rice-crop damage areas.

3.3 Findings and Recommendations

¡ The basic data/information obtained from the Myanmar government was not sufficient for hydrological and hydraulic modeling; therefore globally available data were utilized for the development of a basic flood simulation model.

¡ The first product using globally available data provided basic information on flood inundation conditions in the target area fairly well, and the process of generating such information offered opportunities in which the participants of the hydrological and hydraulic training on flood risk assessment learned what kind of data/information are further required to improve the outputs of the models.

¡ For further advancement of hydrological and hydraulic modeling, topographic data is essential to improve the accuracy of the results. In this TA, globally available satellite data (HydroSHEDS) was initially used for analysis and the simulation results showed fair representation of past inundation conditions, indicating that relative height from satellite data is useful for this analysis. If more accurate analysis is required, high resolution satellite data should be applied. The actual elevation from the mean sea level can only be acquired through calibration using ground surveyed data such as bench mark data.

¡ More rainfall data and water level data will further improve the quality of analysis; therefore it is recommended that DMH strengthen the existing meteorological and hydrological monitoring system.

¡ Currently DMH is improving the rainfall data collecting system by constructing weather radars at Kyaukpyu, Yangon and Mandalay and building more telemetry stations under the Japanese Grant Aid project. Weather radars enable DMH to utilize spatially distributed rainfall data for flood inundation analysis. The telemetry stations will also serve for real-time data collection and accumulation, which will contribute to flood forecasting using the hydrological and hydraulic simulation model and further improvement of the model itself.

¡ River discharge data observed by DMH at the water level stations can be used for flood forecasting. Rating curves at each station are prepared by DMH, but DMH uses propeller-type current meters for flow velocity observation to calculate discharge volume, and observation during a high-flow period is not carried out due to the safety of surveyors. Therefore discharge volume for high flow is estimated by extrapolation using rating curves. For further improvement of the accuracy of discharge volume estimation during a flood, high-flow measurement by float or Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) is recommended (see section 6.3.1 (2)).

¡ Regarding tidal data, DMH does not possess both hourly astronomical tide data and observed tide data, which are necessary for the calibration of the storm surge model. The only source of such data is the Myanmar Port Authority (MPA), which provides DMH with paper-based high/low tide data (4 values per a day). In this TA, the consultant team created hourly astronomical data by interpolating available high/low tide data, but it is desirable to use actual hourly tidal data. Therefore, it is recommended to develop a system for collecting tidal data.

¡ Collected data/information on past flood damage and socio-economical information are essential for risk assessment. However, they are not accumulated enough for risk assessment; therefore globally available data of key parameters such as land cover, cropping area, population distribution, etc., are used tentatively. Establishment of a mechanism to collect and accumulate damage data is recommended.

¡ To compensate low data availability, data and experience obtained from other countries were also applied to flood risk assessment in Myanmar (i.e. apply a risk indicator (damage curve) of

International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), 3-17 Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) CTI Engineering International CO., Ltd. CTI Engineering CO., Ltd. PASCO CORPORATION

TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Chapter 3 Part II Flood Management

rice developed in the Philippines). While using such information with verification of the applicability, continuous efforts are required to collect data for risk assessment, such as disaster records (flood and storm surge), damage data of agriculture, housing and infrastructure, etc., to develop an original damage curve for each item in Myanmar. Therefore, it is recommended to collect data and information on hazards and damage during and after a flood event and it is also recommended to establish a digital data-archiving system for accumulating historical data for analysis.

3-18 International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) CTI Engineering International CO., Ltd. CTI Engineering CO., Ltd. PASCO CORPORATION