Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project Number: 46496-001 December 2016 Republic of the Union of Myanmar: Transformation of Urban Management - Flood Management Component (Financed by the Japanese Fund for Poverty Reduction) FINAL REPORT PART 1 (Part 1 of 7) Prepared by International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) (Tsukuba, Japan) CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. (Tokyo, Japan) CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. (Tokyo, Japan) PASCO CORPORATION (Tokyo, Japan) For: Ministry of Construction and Ministry of Transport and Communications, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, under the Ministry of Transport and Communications. This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design). Source: ICHARM LOCATION MAP TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Table of Contents Part II Flood Management Table of Contents Executive Summary ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ ¢¡¡¢ £¤¥¥ CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1.1 Disaster Condition in Myanmar ............................................................................... 1-1 1.1.2 Outline of TA-8456 .................................................................................................. 1-4 1.2 Objectives of the Part II Component .................................................................................. 1-5 1.2.1 Main Objectives........................................................................................................ 1-5 1.2.2 Target Area ............................................................................................................... 1-6 1.2.3 Target Disasters ...................................................................................................... 1-11 1.2.4 Outputs from TA-8456 ........................................................................................... 1-11 1.2.5 Reporting ................................................................................................................ 1-11 1.3 Implementation Structure ................................................................................................. 1-12 1.3.1 Main Counterparts .................................................................................................. 1-12 1.3.2 Cooperative Framework of TA-8456 ...................................................................... 1-12 1.3.3 Consultant Team ..................................................................................................... 1-13 1.4 Overview of Activities ...................................................................................................... 1-14 1.4.1 General Description ................................................................................................ 1-14 1.4.2 Implementation Process of TA-8456 ...................................................................... 1-14 1.4.3 Missions and Descriptions of Activities Undertaken ............................................. 1-41 CHAPTER 2 NEEDS ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Methodology of Needs Survey ........................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Needs Assessment of DMH ...................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.2 Needs Assessment of Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment .......................... 2-1 2.1.3 Procedure of Questionnaire Survey .......................................................................... 2-3 2.1.4 Participated Organizations ........................................................................................ 2-3 2.2 Results of Needs Assessment of DMH ............................................................................... 2-4 2.3 Results of Needs Assessment of Organizations Relevant to Risk Assessment ................. 2-12 2.4 Recommendations for Future Improvement on Risk Assessment in Myanmar ............... 2-18 2.4.1 Basic Framework for Risk Assessment .................................................................. 2-18 2.4.2 Data Management and Processing .......................................................................... 2-18 2.4.3 Utilization of Risk Assessment ............................................................................... 2-18 CHAPTER 3 DATA COLLECTION....................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 General Descriptions .......................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Identification of Data/Information Requirements for TA-8456 Part II .................... 3-1 3.1.2 Methodology of Data/Information Collection from Myanmar Side ......................... 3-3 3.1.3 Schedule and Procedures for Data/Information Collection ...................................... 3-4 3.2 Data Collection ................................................................................................................... 3-5 3.2.1 Data/Information Holders ......................................................................................... 3-5 3.2.2 Collected Data ........................................................................................................ 3-13 3.2.3 Additionally Collected Data ................................................................................... 3-16 3.3 Findings and Recommendations ....................................................................................... 3-17 International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), i Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. PASCO CORPORATION Table of Contents TA-8456 MYA: Transformation of Urban Management Part II Flood Management CHAPTER 4 HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS ................................................. 4-1 4.1 Introduction......................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Development of Flood Inundation Simulation Model using RRI Model ........................... 4-2 4.2.1 Outline of RRI Model ............................................................................................... 4-2 4.2.2 Data/Information Necessary for Development of Model ......................................... 4-7 4.2.3 Specification of Flood Analysis Model .................................................................. 4-15 4.2.4 Model Calibration ................................................................................................... 4-23 4.2.5 Reflection of Suggestions/Comments for the Improvement of the Simulation Model4-27 4.2.6 Improvement on Elevation Data for Flood Hazard Simulation (Second RRI Model)4-27 4.2.7 Statistical Analysis to Identify the Target Flood for Flood Hazard Simulation in Mandalay ................................................................................................................ 4-30 4.2.8 Applying Rainfall Intensity Formula for Yangon (Third RRI Model) .................... 4-31 4.2.9 Adjustment of Ground Elevation in Yangon Area (Third and Fourth RRI Model) 4-33 4.2.10 Revision of Lower Boundary Condition (Fifth RRI Model) .................................. 4-34 4.2.11 Coastal Flood Inundation Simulation ..................................................................... 4-35 4.2.12 Findings and Recommendations ............................................................................. 4-36 4.3 Flood Inundation Simulation Model for Other Basins ..................................................... 4-37 4.3.1 General Description ................................................................................................ 4-37 4.3.2 Bago ........................................................................................................................ 4-39 4.3.3 Nyaung Don ............................................................................................................ 4-41 4.3.4 Kale ......................................................................................................................... 4-42 4.3.5 Findings and Recommendations ............................................................................. 4-43 4.4 Storm Surge Analysis........................................................................................................ 4-44 4.4.1 Basics of Storm Surge............................................................................................. 4-44 4.4.2 Development of Storm Surge Model with Myers Formula .................................... 4-46 4.4.3 Simulation ............................................................................................................... 4-52 4.4.4 Findings and Recommendations ............................................................................. 4-56 CHAPTER 5 FLOOD AND STORM SURGE RISK ASSESSMENT.................................. 5-1 5.1 Basics of Risk Assessment .................................................................................................