PFA Holding Annual Report 2018
PFA Holding A/S Sundkrogsgade 4 2100 Copenhagen Denmark Tel.: (+45) 39 17 50 00 pfa.dk CVR No.: 22 43 80 18 PFA consolidates the ground- work for future returns During 2018, PFA continued expanding its holding of properties and alternative investments so that they now account for approximately 18.8 per cent of PFA’s total investment portfolio. These investments are key to stabilising the return when the market conditions are unfavourable and the return on equities and bonds is under pressure. 2018 was a good example of this as PFA’s properties and alternative investments contributed positively with approximately DKK 5.3 billion to the customers’ return contrary to the equity markets, which yielded a negative return.
One of PFA’s largest alternative investments is an equity interest in the offshore wind farm Walney Extension. PFA’s investment in the offshore wind farm, which covers an area of 149 km2 and supplies power for more than 600,000 English homes, amounts to approximately DKK 3 billion.
Another large investment is Danish Ship Finance, which PFA became co-owner of in 2016. See more examples of PFA’s alternative investments and properties in the illustrations in this report.
The cover photo shows the offshore wind farm Walney Extension and is kindly lended by Ørsted A/S. PFA Holding Annual Report 2018
Table of contents
Historical growth in difficult investment year...... 2 Highlights 2018...... 6
Management’s Review The financial statements in brief...... 10 The financial markets...... 14 Investment return...... 16 Status on Strategy2020...... 22 Business conditions...... 24 Products and services...... 26 Digitalisation and optimisation...... 34 Capital structure and solvency...... 38 Management and organisation...... 40 Expectations for 2019...... 46 Post balance sheet events...... 48
Financial statements 5-year summary for the PFA Group...... 50 Statement by the Executive Board and the Board of Directors on the Annual Report...... 51 Independent auditor’s report...... 52 Income statement...... 58 Balance sheet...... 59 Statement of changes in equity and capital structure...... 61 Notes to the income statement and balance sheet...... 62
The PFA Group Group structure...... 94 Managerial posts of the Board of Directors and the Executive Board ...... 96 Executive employees...... 102 Additional information...... 104
TRANSLATION: This is a translation of PFA Holding’s Annual Report 2018 in Danish. In case of any discrepancy between the Danish text and the English translation, the Danish text shall prevail.
PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 1 Historical growth in difficult investment year
It is said that it is not just the years in your life that count, but company, TDC, invest in modern shared office facilities in Lon- the life in your years. Looking at PFA, we can be pleased with don and finance the offshore wind farm Hornsea 1, which will both. In 2018, we did not just enter the year following our be the world’s largest when it is put into operation in 2020. 100th anniversary, but also a year where we consolidated our Overall, this means that we have now built a property and market position and could delight in the fact that we still enjoy alternative investments portfolio of approximately DKK 90 bil- great trust from our corporate and organisational customers lion. Thereby, we have created a versatile and robust portfolio, as well as our approximately 1.3 million individual customers. which we look forward to expanding further over the coming This trust places an obligation on us, and we do our very best years during which the returns are expected to be challenged to honour it. Therefore, we are very pleased that, in 2018, we by continued low interest rates and a more moderate develop- launched a number of important initiatives with the objective ment on the financial markets. of preparing us for the future and ensuring that we contin- uously convert our size, experience and customer-owned Digitalisation focused on the customer experience business model into maximum value for our customers. Concurrently with enhancing our investments, we continued the development of PFA’s IT systems and processes in 2018. Before we go into details with the different initiatives, let For example, we adapted our processes, rights and computer us take a look at the year from an investment perspective. systems in order to comply with the EU General Data Protec- After many years of prospering financial markets, 2018 was a tion Regulation (GDPR), which took effect in the spring. volatile year with significant negative fluctuations throughout The work with GDPR as well as other regulations takes place the year. Unfortunately, this made it difficult to generate pos- through our agile development setup, which today compris- itive returns for our customers. Thus, the market rate returns es more than 300 employees across the organisation. This stood at between -5.7 per cent and 0.3 per cent including PFA is a method of working that increases transparency about CustomerCapital (depending on investment profile and time our priorities to ensure that we quickly and effectively can horizon), while the total return amounted to DKK -5.3 billion. respond to new or altered needs. At the same time, the agile processes let us actively involve our customers in our product Volatile markets characterise the investment year development to ensure that we move both fast and in the Of course, we would have liked to see a more positive return right direction. development, but it should be noted that the development was not completely unexpected. At present, we are at the end Personal data is high on the EU agenda not least because of a historically long period of progress, which means that the society in recent years has seen an upsurge in products that savings of a typical customer in our recommended investment are supported by data-driven processes and algorithms. This profile C have been more than doubled over the past nine is also a key area for PFA, and we strive to be market leader years merely as a result of the return. Naturally, such progress when it comes to utilising data, artificial intelligence and will cease at some point to find its own level. This is also one robotics for assisted advisory services, case processing etc. We of the reasons why the industry has collectively decided to see a great potential in data-driven technological assistance, reduce the expectations of future returns from January 2019. and we are currently building on our experience to develop a Already during the autumn of 2018, PFA began notifying its dynamic pension solution than can use data on life incidents customers of this decision to ensure that the customers who to predict and map the need for advisory services. The objec- will be affected the most had time to prepare for their payouts tive is to strengthen the relevance of the many contact points being adjusted to the updated return prognoses. we have with our customers.
When the financial markets are facing turbulent periods, it is Continued focus on health and prevention important to look to sources of return that are less sensitive Just like technology can make life easier, it can also be a to market fluctuations than equities and bonds. Therefore, stressor that makes it difficult for us to unwind and relax. we have significantly upped our alternative investments in Therefore, we have in 2018, among other things, launched a properties, IT infrastructure, green energy, logistics etc. in new initiative and tools that help our customers put focus on recent years. This development was strengthened further healthy digital habits. The new solutions are an integral part during 2018 when we, among other things, utilised our size of our work with prevention and health, which will continue to and our strong Danish and international networks to purchase be an important focus area for us. a German property portfolio of approximately DKK 5.1 billion, become co-owner of Denmark’s biggest telecommunications
2 PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 Even though we have positive experience with PFA EarlyCare Also, we have continued our involvement in the public debate and have helped many customers return to work following as well as the work with developing a better framework for sickness absence, we must realise that stress and stress-relat- the senior citizens of the future, and, among other things, we ed illnesses pose a difficult collective challenge, which unfortu- joined the government’s new senior think tank in 2018. nately does not seem to diminish in future. When looking at health and accident insurance, it is clear that there is a long Historical growth in PFA way to go before we can generate satisfactory results. There- PFA was brought into the world with the objective to create fore, we will, on an ongoing basis together with our corporate value for our customers, and, therefore, we distribute the and organisational customers, look into how we can improve majority of our operating profit to our customers through PFA our health and preventive efforts for the benefit of the individ- CustomerCapital. In 2018, the amount totals DKK 974 million, ual, the workplace and society as a whole. At the same time, which corresponds to 87 per cent of our operating profit. we are very conscious of the fact that the insurance plans When we are able to forward such a significant profit for dis- create financial security for our customers, and, in 2018, we tribution among the customers, it is not least because of the paid out approximately DKK 2.9 billion to more than 70,000 efficiency and muscle power we have through our position as dependants or customers who were diagnosed with a critical one of the largest pension companies in Denmark and Europe. illness, whose occupational capacity was reduced, or who A position that has been further strengthened during 2018 needed treatment or surgery. with significant growth in payments and in the influx of new individual customers as well as corporate and organisational Better framework for life as a senior citizen customers. More specifically, the total payments increased For PFA, it is important that we keep pace with societal from DKK 34.1 billion in 2017 to DKK 37.4 billion in 2018, changes. Last year, we therefore established the Think Tank while we in the same period saw a net addition of more than – The New 3rd Age, which, among other things, looked at 50,000 private customers and 471 corporate and organisa- how professional life, living conditions, health and personal tional customers. This is a historically strong progress and a finances will change as our average age increases, the work- satisfactory result in a competitive market with limited growth. force gets older and technology speeds up the developments in society. We have followed up on this work in 2018 with the The 2018 progress is anchored in a strong and purpose-driven development of a range of new products and services that business model that provides a good framework for PFA’s em- help facilitate a secure framework for a good life as a senior ployees to put the customers’ interests first. We will continue citizen. For example, we have cut the first turf to new senior to do so during 2019, when we, together with our custom- housing, launched PFA Health Insurance for seniors and held ers, expect to reap the benefits of the many initiatives we two well-attended senior days and several +55 courses across launched during 2018. Denmark.
Yours sincerely
Torben Dalby Larsen Allan Polack Chairman of the Board of Directors Group CEO
PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 3 1,122 -5.3 DKK million DKK billion
Total insurance result Total investment return The total insurance result, covering the business areas The total investment return came to DKK -5.3 billion pension and health and accident insurance, showed a in 2018, driven primarily by negative returns on profit before tax of DKK 1,122 million. listed equities.
974 291 DKK million per cent
Customers’ share of the profit for the year Solvency ratio CustomerCapital’s share of the total insurance result The solvency ratio (Solvency II) for the PFA Group amounted to DKK 974 million. To this is added outlays was 157 per cent at end-2018, while it was 291 per from equity and investment return on PFA Customer- cent for PFA Pension. Capital. CustomerCapital thus received a total of DKK 1,088 million of the profit for the year.
-830 696 DKK million DKK
Results from health and accident insurance Lowest expenses in the industry Health and accident business showed a loss before tax Expenses per insured amounted to DKK 696, and of DKK 830 million, which is a deterioration of DKK 407 PFA thus maintained the lowest expenses among million compared to 2017. the commercial pension companies in Denmark.
Returns - PFA Invests The total market rate return (N2) amounted to -3.3 per cent, while average interest rate return (N1) amounted to 0.7 per cent. In 2018, the returns on investment profiles in the market rate environment, PFA Invests, stood at:
-0.7 % -2.4 % -4.1 % -5.7 %
The returns include PFA CustomerCapital and presuppose 30 years until retirement.
4 PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 Net influx of corporate and organisational customers 471 In 2018, PFA had a net influx of new corporate and organisa- net influx of new customers tional customers of 471. PFA maintained its position as the preferred pension supplier for Denmark’s largest companies and organisations.
Rising payments 9.7 In 2018, total payments to PFA increased to DKK 37.4 billion, per cent growth in payments equivalent to a 9.7 per cent growth compared to 2017.
Solid net payments 14.2 The total payments to PFA amounted to DKK 35.5 billion (excl. DKK billion in net payments health and accident insurance), while benefits paid amounted to DKK 21.3 billion. Thus resulting in net payments of DKK 14.2 billion.
No. 7 in Europe 571 PFA’s investment funds totalled DKK 571 billion at end-2018. DKK billion in investment funds According to Investment & Pension Europe, PFA is the 7th largest pension company in Europe.
Employee engagement 5.9 on a scale from 1-7
PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 5 Highlights 2018
2 February The recommendations from PFA’s Think Tank are ready The Think Tank – The New 3rd Age, which PFA is behind, 1 March releases its recommendations for how to ensure the PFA is behind urban devel- good senior life towards 2040. opment in Horsens PFA builds housing and commercial properties for DKK 126 million in central Horsens. Here, PFA is also developing new senior cohousing in close cooperation with Realdania. 9 April PFA becomes co-owner of TDC TDC’s shareholders accept to sell the company to a consortium that consists of PFA, ATP, PKA and Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets.
16 April PFA invests in shared office spaces in London PFA and two large international players buy innovative and high-tech shared office spaces in central London which will be operated according to WeWork’s world-renowned work- 20 April space concepts. PFA receives award for best digital customer solutions The price is awarded by the Danish news media Finanswatch and the consultancy and ana- lytics firm Wilke, which, among other things, emphasise PFA’s 7 June webpage, work with social me- PFA becomes part of new sustainability fund dia, My PFA and PFA’s innovative
capability. Together with six other pension companies, PFA invests in new government-backed fund. The objective is to support the UN’s Global Goals and, at the same time, ensure long- term returns for PFA’s customers. 8 June PFA cuts the first turf for student housing in Odense The student housing facilities will accommodate 300 stu- 14 June dents and is expected ready in the beginning of 2020. It will PFA forwards a profit of DKK be the first of four student housing facilities. The others will 2.5 billion to its customers be placed in Aarhus, Aalborg and Copenhagen. In June, PFA forwarded an extra DKK 939 million to the customers with CustomerCapital. The extra money means that the customers have received a total of DKK 2.5 billion through CustomerCapital for 2017, corresponding to a return of 16 per cent.
6 PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 15 June PFA has the best image in the industry PFA leaps from a 34th to a 17th place in Berlingske’s image sur- vey. Meaning that PFA now has the best image in the Danish 14 August financial sector among business PFA buys German properties at a price of DKK 5.1 billion leaders. It is a property portfolio of approximately 205,000 m2 in major German growth cities such as Munich, Dusseldorf and Berlin.
19 September PFA invests in giant offshore wind farm PFA takes part in financing the offshore wind farm 8 November Hornsea 1, which will be the largest in the world when PFA play a part in writing put into operation in 2020. The wind farm is expected political history to provide green electricity to approximately 1 million PFA hosts a reception in households. the Danish Parliament for a new book on Poul Schlüter’s term in office. The book is the fourth in a series which PFA sponsors about Danish ministries. 29 November PFA has the best employee image in the industry Shown by the report Medarbejderimage 2018 (Employ- ee image 2018), which is published by FinansWatch in cooperation with Wilke. The report looks at the largest financial companies’ image as a workplace among the employees within the sector. 5 December Award for alternative investments PFA receives international honour for its alternative invest- ments. The international industry medium, Investment & Pensions Europe, is behind the award, which covers the entire European pension sector. 12 December PFA selects the causes of the year
This year, PFA Brug Livet Fonden has opted to support 31 December five causes that all focus on helping children and young PFA Invest is still the Danish people who are struggling. In addition to financial sup- investment champion port, the causes also receive help with promotion. Just like 2017, PFA Invest ends the year as the top investment fund in Denmark according to the independent investment research company Morningstar.
PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 7 8 PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 PFA student housing in Odense To mark our 100th anniversary in 2017, PFA announced that we will build student housing in the four major university cities in Denmark - Odense, Aalborg, Aarhus and Copenhagen. The first student housing facility will be built in Odense. It is expected ready at the beginning of 2020 and will accommodate approximately 300 students. Next, student housing will be built in Aalborg, which is expected to be ready in April 2020.
Illustration: Arkitema Architects
PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 9 The financial statements in brief
Financial highlights for the PFA Group
Key figures (DKK million) 2018 2017
Income statement
Profit/(loss), pension 1,952 1,589
Profit/(loss), health and accident insurance (830) (423)
Total result on insurance business 1,122 1,166
Of this PFA CustomerCapital’s share 974 1,003
Equity’s other income etc., net (75) 180
Minority interests’ share (30) 56
Profit/(loss) before tax 43 399
Tax 41 (96)
Minority interests’ share 30 (56)
Net profit/(loss) for the period 114 247
Total payments 37,374 34,064
Total investment return (5,302) 26,340
Balance sheet
Total provisions for insurance and investment contracts 448,638 440,826
Provisions for claims 6,875 5,400
Equity, PFA Holding 5,663 5,549
PFA CustomerCapital 32,947 31,359
Total assets 575,820 596,268
Financial ratios
Rate of return related to market rate products (3.3) % 8.3 %
Rate of return on market rate profiles (5.7) to 0.3 % 5.2 to 13.5 %
Rate of return related to average interest rate products 1.4 % 1.5 % including accumulated value adjustment
Expense ratio on provisions 0.19 % 0.21 %
Expenses per insured DKK 696 DKK 733
Return on equity after tax 2.0 % 4.6 %
10 PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 Financial review Profit/(loss) before tax by business area Overall, the 2018 results came out as expected and were DKK million 2018 2017 acceptable despite low returns on the financial markets, which have impacted the return for our customers, PFA Customer- Pension 1,952 1,589
Capital and equity. Health and accident insurance (830) (423)
Total result on insurance business 1,122 1,166 Payments increased to DKK 37.4 billion from DKK 34.1 billion in 2017, while the expenses per insured dropped to DKK 696 Of this PFA CustomerCapital’s share 974 1,003 from DKK 733 in 2017. The rise in payments and the contin- Outlay – discretionary rebates (114) (160) ued decrease in the expenses per insured are considered very Equity’s other income, net 38 340 satisfactory. Minority interests’ share (30) 56
The insurance result stood at DKK 1,122 million compared to Profit before tax 43 399 DKK 1,166 million in 2017. The change is caused by improved results on the pension operations due to the continued growth, which is counterbalanced by a bigger loss on health Value creation for customers and accident insurance. The majority of the value generated by PFA goes back to the customers by way of a return on their savings. This is done Health and accident insurance comes to DKK -830 million, through: compared to DKK -423 million in 2017. This development is unsatisfactory and is caused by the competitive market for • Accrual of investment return on the customers’ deposits. corporate and organisational pension plans, the upward trend • Accrual of return through PFA CustomerCapital. PFA in claims expenses and the number of claims as well as the CustomerCapital receives the majority of PFA’s insurance declining number of reactivations. In addition, the underlying result for the year. investment result on health and accident insurance is DKK 226 million lower in 2018 than in 2017. The continued work with PFA CustomerCapital forms part of the customers’ total savings data history, models and update of assumptions for disability, in PFA. In 2018, the customers received DKK 974 million out reactivations and customer behaviour have altogether had a of PFA’s insurance results of DKK 1,122 million. To this comes positive non-recurrent effect on health and accident insurance. an outlay from equity for the year and a minor investment We continue the work with the initiatives for permanent im- return etc. on PFA CustomerCapital totalling DKK 114 million. provement of the results from health and accident insurance. Thus, PFA CustomerCapital received a total of DKK 1,088 mil- lion of the result for the year in 2018. The pre-tax profit amounted to DKK 43 million against DKK 399 million in 2017. After tax and deductions for the share at- Payments tributable to minority interests, the result was DKK 114 million The total payments amounted to DKK 37.4 billion against DKK against DKK 247 million in 2017. In 2018, the result after tax 34.1 billion in 2017, equal to a 9.7 per cent growth. The reg- and deduction for minority interests was positively affected by ular payments amounted to DKK 22.0 billion against DKK 21.0 non-recurring items relating to tax of DKK 23 million. billion in 2017, equal to a 4.5 per cent growth.
The Board of Directors recommends a dividend distribution of Single payments and transfers totalled DKK 15.4 billion against DKK 50,000 in PFA Holding. DKK 13.0 billion in 2017, equal to a 18.2 per cent growth.
Payments to market rate plans represented 89 per cent of the total payments. Thus, the share of payments to market rate plans was up by 2 percentage points compared to 2017.
PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 11 Total payments The return related to average interest rate products adjusted for the change in accumulated value adjustment for the period DKK billion 2018 2017 amounted to 1.4 per cent in 2018. The total return related to Market rate 33.4 29.8 average interest rate products (N1) amounted to 0.7 per cent.
Average interest rate 2.1 2.3 The deposit interest rate for customers in the average interest Health and accident insurance 1.9 2.0 rate environment is 2.0 per cent per year. Including the return Total payments 37.4 34.1 on Individual CustomerCapital of 10 per cent, this corresponds to a total deposit interest rate before tax of up to 2.4 per cent Payouts in 2018. Benefits paid decreased to DKK 21.3 billion in 2018 from DKK 21.4 billion in 2017. The decline is primarily due to a drop in For 2018, the customers in the market rate environment and the number of surrenders. the average interest rate environment with PFA CustomerCap- ital received a return of 10 per cent on Individual Customer- In 2018, the net payments excluding health and accident in- Capital. The customers have received a running return of 5 per surance amounted to DKK 14.2 billion against DKK 10.7 billion cent during 2018 and will receive the remaining 5 per cent in in 2017. Thus, PFA still presents a very solid and increasing April 2019. level of net payments. Cost development Gross claims paid from health and accident insurance in- The total costs for the PFA Group increased to DKK 2,246 mil- creased to DKK 1,394 million from DKK 1,245 million in 2017. lion from DKK 2,203 million in 2017. Among other things, the increase is due to considerable IT investments as part of PFA’s Investment return work with efficiency and sizeable expenses in connection with In 2018, the total investment return stood at DKK -5.3 billion. the implementation of GDPR. To this must be added continued investments in the investment area as part of the implementa- Investment return before tax tion of PFA’s investment strategy and as a result of increasing invested customer funds. Average Average annual annual 2018 2017 return return The insurance operating expenses, which form the basis of 2016- 2014- 2018 2018 the key expense ratios, declined to DKK 850 million from DKK
Market rate (3.3) % 8.3 % 3.7 % 5.5 % 865 million in 2017.
Average interest rate incl. accumulated 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.7 % 3.0 % Correspondingly, the expenses per insured dropped to DKK value adjustment 696 from DKK 733 in 2017. Average interest rate 0.7 % 3.5 % 3.6 % 5.6 %
Return on Individual Expenses amounted to 0.19 per cent of provisions, which is a 10.0 % 16.0 % 15.3 % 17.1 % CustomerCapital drop from 0.21 per cent in 2017.
In 2018, customers with market rate plans, PFA Invests, saw Developments in balance sheet items returns between -5.7 per cent and 0.3 per cent including a At end-2018, the balance sheet total amounted to DKK 576 10 per cent return on Individual CustomerCapital. The return billion against DKK 596 billion at end-2017. In total, provisions depends on the customer’s selection of investment profile for insurance and investment contracts increased due to net as well as time until retirement. Customers with investment payments. Provisions for insurance and investment contracts profile A received the highest return since profile A has the amounted to DKK 449 billion against DKK 441 billion at smallest share of high-risk assets. The total return related to end-2017. market rate products (N2) amounted to -3.3 per cent. Debt to credit institutions related to repo transactions, pend- ing security transactions and debt regarding derivatives with a
12 PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 negative market value amounted to DKK 80 billion against DKK The capital base in PFA Pension, which makes up the majority 110 billion at end-2017. Repo transactions declined by DKK of the Group’s capital base, primarily consists of equity 14 billion to DKK 54 billion at end-2018. and PFA CustomerCapital. The capital base in PFA Pension increased in 2018 mainly due to operational risk charge from Equity rose by DKK 0.2 billion to DKK 7.9 billion. Equity for PFA the portfolio of average interest rate plans and from net Holding A/S totals DKK 5.7 billion against DKK 5.5 billion at payments to CustomerCapital. As at 31 December 2018, the end-2017. capital base amounts to DKK 41.2 billion.
In total, PFA CustomerCapital increased by DKK 1.6 billion in At end-2018, the solvency capital requirement for PFA Pension 2018 and amounted to DKK 32.9 billion as at 31 December amounts to DKK 14.2 billion against DKK 17.5 billion at end- 2018. The increase is due to net payments as well as PFA 2017. At end-2018, the solvency ratio for PFA Pension is 291 CustomerCapital’s share of the net profit for the period. per cent against 215 per cent at end-2017.
Provisions for insurance and investment contracts As at 31 December 2018, the Group’s capital base and solven- In the past few years, PFA has been experiencing a strong cy capital requirement amount to DKK 22.6 billion and 14.4 growth in life insurance provisions for market rate plans. billion respectively, thus putting the Group’s solvency ratio at Life insurance provisions for market rate plans amounted to 157 per cent. DKK 238 billion against DKK 223 billion at year-end 2017. Internal transfers from the average interest rate environment The solvency ratio for the Group is lower than the solvency to the market rate environment amounted to DKK 3.6 billion, ratio for PFA Pension as only the part of PFA CustomerCapital of which transfer allowances accounted for DKK 0.9 billion that covers PFA Pension’s solvency capital requirement can corresponding to the additional value of guaranteed benefits be included in the Group’s capital base under the Solvency II relative to the savings as well as a share of the collective regulations. reserves.
Customers’ total savings in the market rate environment amounted to 55 per cent of the total life insurance provi- sions for market rate plans and average interest rate plans at end-2018. Thus, the share of savings in the market rate environment increased by 3 percentage points compared with end-2017.
At end-2018, the profit margin has increased from DKK 3 billion in 2017 to DKK 4.6 billion, which is a result of changes in the market value basis.
Life insurance provisions for average interest rate plans declined to DKK 197 billion from DKK 206 billion at year-end 2017. Among other things, this development is a result of the payouts exceeding the payments and funds still being transferred from the average interest rate environment to the market rate environment. The collective bonus potential stands at DKK 9.5 billion.
Solvency PFA still has a high solvency ratio, which ensures that PFA can live up to the customers’ guaranteed benefits and fulfil other obligations.
PFA Holding Annual Report 2018 13 The financial markets
2018 was characterised by increasing volatility and significant weakened global growth, heightened political uncertainty and price drops on the equity markets. In the wake of years of threats of increased duties on exports to the US. Among other progress, the negative development hit widely across regions. things, this was reflected in declining business confidence The plunge in equity prices must be seen in the light of more indicators especially within the more export-oriented manufac- moderate global growth expectations as well as a range of turing companies. political events that contributed to unsettled financial markets. Particularly the trade conflict between the US and China, The Italian government presented a budget deficit that con- difficult negotiations about the Brexit agreement and Italy’s flicted with previous agreements of balancing the national dispute with the EU Commission about the national budget debt. This led to a controversy with the EU Commission and deficit. On the other hand, tax relief and a very expansionary increased interest rates on Italian government bonds. Great fiscal policy in the US have contributed positively. Britain saw great internal disagreements on the specifics of the Brexit agreement with the EU, and the prospect of a During 2018, long-term interest rates in the US went up, while chaotic British exit from the EU in March 2019 weighted on they remained almost unchanged in Germany and Japan. This the markets. led to a strengthening of the US dollar and vast regional return differences. Among other things, the development reflects Beyond this, a reasonably steady development in the domestic that the US, Europe and Asia are at different points in the demand within the Eurozone continued to drive the economic business cycle. upswing. This resulted in employment growth and a drop in unemployment to 8.1 per cent in October 2018, which is the Development in global equities and 10-year Euro lowest level since 2008. interest rates The ECB maintains accommodative monetary policy 1 The European Central Bank (ECB) has throughout 2018
1 0 maintained an ultra-lax monetary policy based on negative interest rates and purchase of bonds. In October, the monthly 1 2 purchase was reduced from EUR 30 billion to EUR 15 billion,
Per ent and, at end-2018, the purchase programme was discontinued. 1 00 The ECB emphasises that it will continue to reinvest maturing nde
0 bonds for some time, and the expectation is that the interest rates will, at the earliest, be raised on the other side of sum- 0 0 mer 2019. This is because the inflation rate is – even though it will gradually increase – expected to be below the ECB’s 0 2 target of 2 per cent. The prospect of a continued long period with low interest rates took part in keeping the long-term