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Climate Change in the Canadian Wine Regions : Impacts and Adaptive Strategies Anthony B. Shaw Department of Geography & C

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Climate Change in the Canadian Wine Regions : Impacts and Adaptive Strategies Anthony B. Shaw Department of Geography & C Climate Change in the Canadian Wine Regions : Impacts and Adaptive Strategies Anthony B. Shaw Department of Geography & Cool climate Enology and Viticulture Institute Brock University, Ontario Canada 1 Statistics On Canadian Wine Industry • Over $9 billion contribution annually to the Canadian economy • Over 37, 000 employed • Over 30,000 acres in production • Over 671 wineries • More than 3.7 million visitors annually • Over 30% wine sales • Source: Canadian Vintners Association 2017 Climate and Wine Production • Climate is the primary determining factor in the distribution of wine areas around the world and the grape cultivars most suited to an area along with the wine quality, yield and viticultural practices. • This fact makes wine production extremely sensitive to changes in weather and climate 3 Climate Change • Three characteristics of climate change in Canada that pose risks to wine production: • Temperature Variability (annual and seasonal) • Occurrences of extreme weather events, such as high precipitation, cold and hot temperatures • The gradual warming in the regional climates that could affect established cultivars and wine quality 5 GDDs 1000 1100 1200 1300 600 700 800 900 ) 1970 1971 1972 Evolution 1973 1974 1975 Noir Pinot , ,Chardonnay Riesling Vidal, Baco Seyval Lucie L’Acadie De 1976 1977 Chaunac 1978 Noir, Kuhlmann 1979 ( Climate Wine of Scotia's Nova Blanc 1980 , 1981 Marechal 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Foch 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 REGION 1 REGION 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Greenwood) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 6 2012 2013 2014 GDDs 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 800 900 Evolution of Winkler Index for Granby, of Winkler Evolution 1970 1972 Vidal, Vidal, De Croix,Ste. Chancellor, Lucy Kuhlman 1974 1976 1978 Seyval Quebec 1980 1982 , Marechal 1984 1986 1988 I Region Foch 1990 Chaunac 1992 1994 Estrie 1996 1998 2000 Region 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 7 GDDs 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1970 1971 Chardonnay Sauvignon Franc Cabernet Sauvignon Cabernet Merlot 1972 Gris Pinot Riesling Gamay Chardonnay Noir Pinot Chasselas 1973 1974 1975 1976 Blanc 1977 Region Niagara For GGDs in Trends 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1970 1987 1988 1989 - 1990 2015 1991 1992 I Region II Region 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 8 2013 2014 2015 Evolution of South Okanagan's Wine Climate, British Columbia 1900 1800 Cabernet Sauvignon 1700 Merlot, Syrah, Cabernet Franc, Sangiovese, Malbec, Chardonnay, Riesling Region III 1600 1500 Region II 1400 1300 Region 1 1200 1100 1000 9 Observed and Projected Changes in GDDs to 2070s using the downscaled HADCM3 10 A2- Scenario- A heterogeneous world, increasing population, slower and fragmented technological change A1B- Rapid population that peaks in mid-century and declines followed by rapid introduction of energy- efficient technologies and a balance between fossil and non-fossil fuels B1- A convergent world, population peaks in mid- century, and declines, global solutions and emphasis on social and environmental sustainability 11 GDD Baseline 10°C 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 600 800 200 400 0 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Days Degree Growing and FuturePast 1999 2001 2003 2005 Niagara, 2007 2009 Observed 2011 2013 2015 Ontario, Canada Ontario, 2017 2019 A2 2021 Year 2023 A1B 2025 2027 B1 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061 2063 12 2065 2067 2069 Pa st and Future Climate Normals Growing Degree Days Niagara, Ontario, Canada 2200 2000 1800 1600 C ° 1400 1200 1000 800 GDD Baseline 10 Baseline GDD 600 400 200 0 Observed Observed Observed Observed Modelled Modelled Modelled Modelled 1971-2000 1981-2010 and and 2011-2040 2021-2050 2031-2060 2041-2070 Modelled Modelled 1991-2020 2001-2030 A2 A1B B1 13 Observed and Projected Extreme Damaging Minimum Temperatures 14 15 Frequency 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Events 1978 1979 1980 1981 with 1982 1983 - 1984 <20 1985 o 1986 , Granby 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Estrie 1992 1993 1994 , Quebec 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 16 2012 2013 2014 2015 18 Frequency of Damaging Temperatures <-20C, Niagara, Ontario (1970-2014) 16 14 12 10 8 2 per. Mov. Avg. () 6 4 2 0 17 2014 2012 18 2010 ) 2008 2014 - 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 20 C for Peachland, Okanagan (1970 Okanagan C for Peachland, 20 - 1984 1982 1980 1978 Frequency of Frequency 1976 1974 1972 1970 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Ice Wine and Climate Change 19 Hand Picking icewine grapes Days 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 5 0 1970 1971 1972 Trends in Ice Wine Picking Days Days Picking Wine Ice in Trends 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 (1970 1979 1980 1981 1982 - 1983 Ontario Niagara 2016, 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 (> ) 1999 - 8 2000 2001 o 2002 C ) 2003 2004 Dec in 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 & 2010 2011 Jan 2012 21 2013 2014 2015 2016 Great Lakes and Climate Change 22 Georgian Bay Lake Huron Grey Durham P EC Huron Lake Ontario Norfolk Niagara Lake Erie North Shore 23 % 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0 1 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 Trends in Maximum Ice Cover in Maximum Ice Cover for Lake Ontario Trends 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 24 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Impacts and Implications Observed Changes in the Last 50 Years • All regions are experiencing a gradual warming in winter and summer seasons • Fewer days with extreme damaging cold temperatures, but higher occurrences of extreme high temperatures, especially in Southern Ontario and Okanagan • More variability (volatility) in temperatures, especially in winter and spring that could damage vines and affect yield 26 • Positive • Reduction in number of damaging winter freeze events • Negative • Winter and late spring freeze damage could actually increase due to occurrences of warm freeze-thaw events followed by cold snaps • Positive • Warmer and longer growing seasons could enhance ripening potentials for red varieties • Negative • More volatility in growing season conditions leading to a greater degree of variability in vintages • Positive • Expansion into new areas around the Great Lakes, Prince Edward Island, St. Johns River Valley, Southern Quebec, once considered climatically marginal Implications for Viticulture in the Long-Term • Impact on Vine Phenology • Earlier bud break and flowering • Earlier veraison and ripening • Impact on Quality • Accelerated ripening for early season varieties (Pinot Noir, Merlot) • Lower acidity and higher sugar and alcohol levels due to higher daytime and night time temperatures, especially in South Okanagan • Full maturity of mid to late season varieties, ( Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet Franc, Riesling) especially in Great Lakes Region Climate Change Adaptation • . Most studies on adaptive strategies consider implementation based on past experiences • Examples of adaptation based on long-term future projections are rare • Move from reactive to anticipatory adaptive strategies • Anticipatory adaptive strategies present many challenges. Reactive Strategies 30 Diversify the Number of Cultivars and Growing Areas • Expand the range of commercial varieties based on suitable climatic and soils factors • Move into New Areas with suitable soil types and climates following assessment of local environmental and socio-economic factors Implement Active and Passive Freeze Protection Methods • Most wine regions have a range of protective measures, such as wind machines, choice of cold-hardy varieties, canopy management and vine pruning techniques Hedging Winter Injury and Vintage Variations • Consider Index-based Insurance Policies to hedge winter and growing season risks • Government sponsored mitigation and adaptation policies and programs • Active and passive freeze protection strategies (wind machines, cold-resistant varieties, vine alert monitoring systems and training systems Blending • Blending the same varieties or different varieties from several climatic areas or vineyards to reduce vintage variations and to create unique sensory attributes and consistency in quality and style Monitoring Systems • Development of a Micro-climate Monitoring System to assess evolution of established areas and to identify new areas • Should include real time and archived data of key climatic parameters and indices for long-term analysis • Monitoring various stages of plant phenology, fruit maturation and harvest relative to climatic evolution of the wine areas Climate Change • Long-Term Adaptation Strategies Through Institutional Support • • Develop cold-resistant varieties to accommodate cycles of freeze and thaw and higher chilling requirements • Develop disease-resistant varieties • Develop Climate High Resolution Prediction Models for analysis at smaller spatial scales Climate Change Conclusions • Potential benefits are not clearly evident • The changes may be imperceptible to most people • More controversial, are the uncertainties • Even more controversial: What strategies should we adopt over the long-term? Thank You Merci 38.
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