Psychological Stress Factors and Their Influence on the Outcome of Penalty Shootouts in Soccer
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University of Amsterdam BACHELOR THESIS Business Administration Psychological stress factors and their influence on the outcome of penalty shootouts in soccer submitted by Michael Lopez Diaz Student Number: 11867884 Date of submission: June 21st, 2020 Supervisor: drs. Rob van Hemert Statement of Originality This document is written by Student Michael Lopez Diaz who declares to take full responsibility for the contents of this document. I declare that the text and the work presented in this document are original and that no sources other than those mentioned in the text and its references have been used in creating it. The Faculty of Economics and Business is responsible solely for the supervision of completion of the work, not for the contents. 2 Abstract This research project aims to investigate the effects of presumed psychological stress factors on the outcome of soccer penalty shootouts. Therefore, the following research question is asked: Do the psychological stress factors Competition, Kick Number, Round of Competition, and Decisiveness of Kick have a significant impact on the outcome of a penalty shootout in soccer, and if so, which impact is the biggest? To answer the research question, an online data collection was conducted, to create a sample from penalty shootouts from various competitions. The results of the study show that no significant correlations between the dependent and independent variables, which are the subject of the research question, can be proven. Based on these findings, it is recommended that other variables are considered in the research question, which could prove a possible influence of psychological stress factors on the outcome of penalty shootouts in soccer. 3 Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 5 1.1. Subject Matter ................................................................................................................. 5 1.2. Research Question ........................................................................................................... 6 2. Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................ 6 2.1. Psychological Stress and Famous Examples ................................................................... 6 2.2. Literature Review ............................................................................................................ 7 2.3. Hypotheses .................................................................................................................... 11 3. Methods ........................................................................................................................ 12 4. Results .......................................................................................................................... 14 4.1. Descriptive and correlation results ................................................................................ 14 4.2. Binary Logistic Regression ........................................................................................... 16 5. Discussion ..................................................................................................................... 17 5.1. Interpretation of Results ................................................................................................ 18 5.2. Limitations .................................................................................................................... 19 5.3. Advice for Future Research ........................................................................................... 21 5.4. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 21 4 1. Introduction The following paper addresses the importance of psychological stress factors for the outcome of penalty shootouts in soccer. In the upcoming introduction, penalty shootouts will be explained and their importance for the sport will be highlighted. A connection to the psychological stress factors will be made to provide the fundamentals for the thesis. 1.1. Subject Matter Widely implemented in the 1970s, penalty shootouts have accounted for some of the most dramatic events in soccer (Hollmann, 2006). As the ultimate decider for the most prestigious knockout tournaments, the importance of penalty shootouts can’t be understated. Whether it takes place after a draw in one-off knockout matches like in the World Cup, or two-legged ties as in the Champions League, the rules of the shootout are the same: Five penalties, which must be taken by different players, get awarded to each team. The team with the most goals wins the standoff. In the event of a tie after five penalty shoot-outs, the penalty shoot-out will continue indefinitely with "sudden death rounds" until one team emerges victorious. As shootouts always decide the outcome of a tie, determining if a team advances in a competition or even wins the tournament, the stakes are inevitably enormous, especially in professional soccer (FIFA, 2018). Considering these circumstances it is unquestionable that the psychological pressures on penalty takers are huge (Jordet et al., 2007). Since there are not only large financial profits to be earned in modern soccer but also widespread interest by spectators and fans in the outcome of tournaments, it is critical to take a closer look at psychological stress factors influencing the outcome of penalty shootouts, as they are not seldom the deciding success factor in soccer. Psychological stress factors influencing the outcome of a penalty shootout are widespread and diverse, just as the topic of psychology itself. The amount of mental stress built up before a penalty can likely be associated with several factors, whether it be the timing of the penalty within the shootout or a competition, as well as the perceived importance of the kick in a given situation. Due to uncertainty in prior research regarding psychology influencing the outcome of penalty shootouts (Jordet et al., 2007) and, due to previous studies showing contradicting results about the influence of various strategies on kick success (Noel et al., 2014), a need for further research on the topic of penalty shootouts and the influence of psychological stress factors on their success is present. While, for a qualitative evaluation of the topic, sources such as previously conducted research need to be taken into account, it is also important to look into subjective views as well, such as player interviews after shootouts. This can help to better 5 evaluate the individuality of psychological effects on penalty takers, and how their responses to stressful conditions differ. The main aim of the study is to further analyze a variety of psychological factors that influence the outcome of penalty shootouts in soccer. In order to do that, several components were chosen that are assumed to cause stress and other mental pressures during a penalty shootout and are therefore expected to affect the outcome of penalty kicks. To be able to build this research upon observable facts rather than interviews, this paper aims to perform a quantitative approach to observing the matter. To be able to do this, measurable elements had to be identified within the observable dataset that is produced during a shootout. As a result of that, the model measures four elements analyzing performance differences for various psychological factors such as Competitions, Kick Number, Rounds of Competitions, and whether a kick is decisive. 1.2. Research Question The following research question is based on the presumption that these variables influence the outcome of a penalty shootout: Do the psychological stress factors Competition, Kick Number, Round of Competition, and Decisiveness of Kick have a significant impact on the outcome of a penalty shootout in soccer and if so, which impact is the biggest? In the following section, I will lay out the theoretical framework, based on the ideas stated in the introduction. 2. Theoretical Framework The theoretical framework will provide a breakdown of the implications psychological stress has on the human mind and body, along with famous examples of high-stress situations during penalty shootouts. Furthermore, the current state of research on the topic will be explained, as well as providing the from the theory derived hypotheses as a theoretical basis of the study. 2.1. Psychological Stress and Famous Examples In the field of psychology, stress is classified as a type of psychological pain. According to Mental Health America, the body responds to small amounts of stress with an increase in blood pressure, heart rate, respiration, metabolism, and muscle blood flow (MHA, 2020). Even though this reaction is meant to support the body in reacting to high-pressure situations, excessive amounts of stress can lead to bodily harm and prove detrimental to cognitive functions such as concentration and the ability to focus (Sapolsky, 2004). Mental stress is often caused by external 6 factors, putting a great deal of strain on the recipient of mental pressures, causing anxiety, discomfort, and a wide array of other negative emotions (Jones, Bright & Clow, 2001). As the effects of mental stress have been investigated and explored in a wide field of studies, this paper intends to shed more light on its effects on penalty takers in soccer shootouts. A famous example of the extreme psychological effects a penalty