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POLAND Privatisation Plan & Investment Opportunities Capital Markets Department March 2013 Poland – a distinctive economy… GDP: 0.0% GDP: 2.0% GDP: 3.3% Inflation: 2.8% Inflation: 3.7% Inflation: 3.0% • 8th economy in the EU, 22nd economy Population: 63m Population: 38m Population: 3m world-wide by GDP GDP: 0.9% GDP: -1.0% Inflation: 2.0% Inflation: 3.3% Population: 11m Population: 82m GDP: 2.0% • Largest economy in the CEE region and among Inflation: 3.7% new EU countries Population: 5m GDP: 0.0% Inflation: 2.0% GDP: 0.2% Population: 63m Inflation: 3.3% • Avoided recession over the last 20 years Population: 21m GDP: -3.2% • Healthy banking sector: Inflation: 2.8% Population: 11m GDP: 0.6% Inflation: 2.5% • Loans to deposits ratio: 111.3% (Sep ’12) Population: 6m GDP: -1.5% Inflation: 5.7% GDP: -6.6% GDP: -1.4% Population: 10m Inflation: 1.5% • Inflation: 2.4% Population: 11m Tier 1: 12.7% (Sep ’12) Population: 46m • Balanced GDP composition Cumulative GDP growth(a) 2008-2012 16,9 20 10,5 6,2 5,6 3,8 3,6 10 3,1 2,3 1,7 1,6 1,3 0,2 0 -0,3 -10 -0,7 -1,0 -2,3 -2,3 -3,3 -4,1 -4,2 -4,5 -4,8 -5,7 -6,2 -6,5 -20 -11,0 -30 -22,0 Italy Spain Malta Latvia Cyprus Ireland Poland Greece Austria Finland Estonia Sweden Bulgaria Belgium Slovakia Slovenia Hungary Portugal Romania Germany Denmark Lithuania Netherlands Luxembourg Czech Republic European Union United Kingdom Source: (a) Global Insight’s World Overview 2 Stimulus packages contribute to economic stability and development ► EUR 67bn up to 2013 EU funds ► 84% of EU funds already allocated* inflow Government Infrastructure stimulus spending ► Wide range of fiscal and pension reforms to ► Government spending reduce public finance forecast 2009-2012: deficit to ca. 3% of GDP for roads EUR 23bn and public debt to 52% for rail EUR 4bn of GDP in 2012 ► Significant FDI inflows to ► The Energy Information Foreign Direct Poland: EUR 68.6bn Shale gas Administration estimates Investments (2006-2011) Poland’s shale gas resources at 5.23tcm** Source: Ministry of Transport, Construction and Maritime Economy, National Bank of Poland, National Cohesion Strategy, EIU report as of March 2012. Note: Currency conversion based on USD/PLN exchange rate of 3.1891 as of May 4 2012 * December 2012 ** Trillion cubic metres 3 Driving forces of Polish economy CEE FDI (2006-2010) (EUR bn) Real GDP growth (%)(a) 70 64 60 6,8 6,3 47 50 5,3 5,1 4,3 4,4 4,7 3,9 3,6 3,9 3,6 40 35 2,8 1,6 2,0 30 25 1,2 1,4 1,1 18 20 10 13 10 6 2011 2007 2012 2001 2010 2003 2005 2002 2004 2008 2006 2009 2017E 2013E 2015E 2014E 2016E 0 Czech Hungary Lithuania Romania Slovakia Poland Austria Greece Rep. Poland European Union Contribution to GDP (y/y%) Spending power 8 GDP per capita in USD thousands 6 43,2 4.5% 36,7 4 32,9 2 23,4 10.0% 21,5 0 13,9 -2 12,7 5,7 -4 -6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2003 2008 2012 2017 2010 2011 2012 Net exports Inventories Investments Poland European Union CAGR Consumption GDP Source: (a) Global Insight World Overview; UNCTAD, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Regional Development 4 Stable monetary policy… Prudent monetary policy National Bank of Poland interest rates (%) • Inflation 7,0 National Bank of Poland’s medium term inflation target 6,0 2.5% 1 percentage point (since 2004) 5,0 Dec 2012: 2.4% y/y (core inflation 1.7% y/y) 4,0 3.25% 2016 e: 2.3% 3,0 Avg CPI inflation : 3.1% (since 2004) 2,0 • Interest rate cut by 50bp to 3.25% (6 March 2013) 1,0 • GDP forecasts: 1.1% - 2013; 2.8% - 2014 0,0 Jan-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jul-10 May-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Inflation Forecast (%) FX Developments 7 5 6 4.89 4 5 4.19 4 3 2.3% 3.09 3 2 2 1 1 Dec-05 May-07 Oct-08 Mar-10 Aug-11 Jan-13 sty-09 sty-10 sty-11 sty-12 sty-13 sty-14 sty-15 sty-16 EUR/PLN USD/PLN GBP/PLN Source: National Bank of Poland, Global Insight World Overview, Ministry of Finance 5 … and fiscal policy Key drivers behind fiscal policy • A widening fiscal deficit in 2009 and 2010 related to automatic stabilizers, tax cuts and accumulation of large infrastructure projects in 2009-2012 (mainly EURO 2012) • Expenditure (mainly infrastructure) financed by EU funds made up over 10% of total expenditure • Since 2011 a strategy of systematic deficit reduction has been in place • Government deficit expected to fall to 3.4% of GDP in 2012, 3.1% of GDP in 2013 • Government targets: ‐ public debt/GDP to fall to 51.4% in 2013; 2015 expected slightly above 50% ‐ 2013 target budget deficit PLN 35.6bn – actual deficit levels tend to be below budget Budget deficit execution (PLN bn) Government budget balance (% GDP) 60 52 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 45 50 45 0,0% 41 40 40 35 35 -1,0% 31 27 27 32 28 30 -2,0% 30 25 24 24 25 -3,0% 20 16 -3.1% -4,0% -3.4% 10 -3.7% -5,0% 0 -5.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f* -6,0% -7,0% Deficits assumed in Budget Acts Actual deficits -8,0% -7.4% .-7.8% -9,0% Source: Ministry of Finance ; (a) The Convergence Programme – 2011 update 6 Privatisation via the Stock Exchange Polish Privatisation Programme 2012–2013 Privatisation Programme . ca. 260 companies earmarked for privatisation (e.g. energy, food, transport, metallurgy, chemicals, services, coal mining, real-estate, defence, agriculture) . The Ministry intends to sell off all of its holdings in 85% of companies included in the Privatisation Programme . The Ministry will retain majority/controlling stakes in companies of strategic importance (mainly energy, financial and defence companies) . Privatisation proceeds in 2012 of €2.2bn, estimated €1.2bn in 2013 Privatisation Methods Capital Markets Trade Sale . IPO and follow-on offerings . Negotiations following a public pipeline invitation, public tender, public . Civic Shareholding auction . Direct sale to secure know-how The intention is to retain and consolidated ownership decision-making and intellectual . Price is the only selection criterion capital creation in Poland. Additional investor commitments 8 Strengthening Warsaw as a regional financial centre Domestic Issuers International Issuers 43 on the main market / 8 on the alternative 395 market. Listings from 20 countries including: Hungary, Slovenia, Ukraine, Israel, Lithuania, 434 Bulgaria, Estonia, France, UK. POLAND’S CAPITAL MARKET MAIN MARKET NEWCONNECT PKOBP • International trading flows - 15,3% Other non-State CATALYST with approx. 50% of all trading 26,6% volume generated by DERIVATIVES – options & futures international investors KGHM LOTOS 14,5% • Domestic institutional 1,5% JSW investors (pension funds (OFE), 2,1% BOGDANKA 2,6% mutual funds, asset managers) TAURON 2,6% PZU • Active retail investor segment (18% 0f trading PGNIG 13,3% 5,3% PGE PKNORLEN flows on WSE main market) 6,6% 9,7% WIG 20 – privatised core companies Global and Domestic Investors Source: Warsaw Stock Exchange and NewConnect websites, as of February 27, 2013 9 Warsaw Stock Exchange Stable and Vibrant Platform to Raise Capital and partnership with NYSE Market Capitalisation (EURm) – Jan 2013 Number of New Companies Listed (2010-2012) 700 000 649 482 91 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 230 061 25 20 200 000 131 183 82 262 36 789 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 100 000 26 013 16 668 12 810 5 351 4 061 0 Poland Greece Austria Istanbul Bulgaria Slovakia Hungary Romania Czech Rep. MICEX / RTS MICEX Capitalisation of domestic companies as % of GDP Turnover ratio 60% 56% 160% 139% 50% 140% 41% 120% 40% 36% 100% 30% 26% 80% 18% 52% 51% 17% 16% 60% 42% 41% 20% 13% 37% 9% 40% 26% 25% 10% 6% 20% 8% 5% 0% 0% Source: FESE, WFE, WSE 10 Domestic Pension Funds - a key liquidity driver of WSE Continued Inflow of Funds Despite Recent Changes to the Pension System Pension Funds (a)* - AUM Mutual Funds (a)* - AUM EUR bn mn EUR bn 35,0 mn 14.9 15.5 15,9 27,9 13,8 14.4 27,5 13,1 11,7 12,4 22,5 56 57 64 17,8 45 35 34 29 3,3 21 2,5 2,5 2,4 1,94 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 N0. of N0. of Funds: 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 Funds: 492 547 638 675 766 Assets Under Management Clients Assets Under Management Clients Retail Investors Contribute to WSE Market Liquidity (b) Number15 of brokerage15 15accounts 14 in Poland14 14 14 (c) (‘000) WSE Equity - Turnover Breakdown (%) 1% 1% 30% 36% 10% 43% 47% 47% 48% 1 477 1 498 1 508 1 133 1 029 37% 39% 34% 35% 34% 18% 27% 19% 18% 18% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Individual Institutional International Annual growth of the total number of brokerage accounts (a) KNF-Financial Supervision Authority - statistics, Chamber of Fund and Asset Management * PLN/EUR: PLN 4.1658 ( b) WSE internet portal, KNF-Polish Financial Supervision Authority - statistics, KDPW, Chamber of Fund and Asset Management ( c) WSE 11 Polish Retail Investors Unique Support for Liquidity across WSE Segments Akcjonariat Obywatelski (Civic Shareholding Programme) - a long term programme initiated by the Ministry of Treasury during the IPO of PZU and further developed during the privatisation of Tauron, WSE and JSW The aim is to increase the participation of Polish individuals in the domestic capital markets and Privatisation Programme, and also to encourage Poles to actively manage their savings Successful participation in IPOs Company PGE PZU Tauron WSE JSW IPO Date Oct- 2009 May-2010 Jun-2010 Oct-2010 Jul-2011 No of subscribers 85,ooo 250,000 230,000 323,000 168,000 Today individual investors generate ca.