Resolving the Financial Crisis: Are We Heeding the Lessons from the Nordics?
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A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Borio, Claudio; Vale, Bent; von Peter, Goetz Working Paper Resolving the Financial Crisis: Are We Heeding the Lessons from the Nordics? Working Paper, No. 2010/17 Provided in Cooperation with: Norges Bank, Oslo Suggested Citation: Borio, Claudio; Vale, Bent; von Peter, Goetz (2010) : Resolving the Financial Crisis: Are We Heeding the Lessons from the Nordics?, Working Paper, No. 2010/17, ISBN 978-82-7553-567-0, Norges Bank, Oslo, http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2497446 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/209962 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. 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By Claudio Borio, Bent Vale and Goetz von Peter Working papers fra Norges Bank, fra 1992/1 til 2009/2 kan bestilles over e-post: [email protected] eller ved henvendelse til: Norges Bank, Abonnementsservice Postboks 1179 Sentrum 0107 Oslo Telefon 22 31 63 83, Telefaks 22 41 31 05 Fra 1999 og fremover er publikasjonene tilgjengelig på www.norges-bank.no Working papers inneholder forskningsarbeider og utredninger som vanligvis ikke har fått sin endelige form. Hensikten er blant annet at forfatteren kan motta kommentarer fra kolleger og andre interesserte. Synspunkter og konklusjoner i arbeidene står for forfatternes regning. Working papers from Norges Bank, from 1992/1 to 2009/2 can be ordered by e-mail: [email protected] or from Norges Bank, Subscription service, P.O.Box. 1179 Sentrum N-0107Oslo, Norway. Tel. +47 22 31 63 83, Fax. +47 22 41 31 05 Working papers from 1999 onwards are available on www.norges-bank.no Norges Bank’s working papers present research projects and reports (not usually in their final form) and are intended inter alia to enable the author to benefit from the comments of colleagues and other interested parties. Views and conclusions expressed in working papers are the responsibility of the authors alone. ISSN 1502-8143 (online) ISBN 978-82-7553-567-0 (online) Resolving the financial crisis: are we heeding the lessons from the Nordics? Claudio Borio1, Bent Vale2 and Goetz von Peter1 Abstract How does the management and resolution of the current crisis compare with the response of the Nordic countries in the early 1990s, widely regarded as exemplary? We argue that, while intervention has been prompter, the measures taken so far remain less comprehensive and in-depth. In particular, the cleansing of balance sheets has proceeded more slowly, and less attention has been paid to reducing excess capacity and avoiding competitive distortions. In general, policymakers have given higher priority to sustaining aggregate demand in the short term than to encouraging adjustment in the financial sector and containing moral hazard. We argue that three factors largely explain this outcome: the more international nature of the crisis; the complexity of the instruments involved; and, hardly appreciated so far, the effect of accounting practices on the dynamics of the events, reflecting in particular the prominent role of fair value accounting (and mark to market losses) in relation to amortised cost accounting for loan books. There is a risk that the policies followed so far may delay the establishment of the basis for a sustainably profitable and less risk-prone financial sector. JEL Classification: G01, G21, G28. Keywords: Crisis management and resolution, principles for successful resolution, Nordic countries, fair value and amortised cost accounting, mark to market losses. 1 Bank for International Settlements 2 Norges Bank iii Table of contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 I. Crisis management and resolution: principles ................................................................. 2 Principle 1: Early recognition and intervention ................................................................ 3 Principle 2: Comprehensive and in-depth intervention .................................................... 4 Principle 3: Balancing systemic costs with moral hazard ................................................ 5 II. The Nordic crises and today’s: comparing the response................................................. 6 Principle 1: Early recognition and intervention ................................................................ 6 Principle 2: Comprehensive and in-depth intervention .................................................. 10 Principle 3: Balancing systemic costs with moral hazard .............................................. 17 III. The Nordic crises and today’s: why did the responses differ? ...................................... 18 Macroeconomic conditions ............................................................................................19 The international dimension of the crisis .......................................................................19 The complexity of the assets involved ...........................................................................20 Fair value vs amortised cost accounting and the dynamics of the crisis ....................... 20 Overall assessment and possible implications .............................................................. 22 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 23 References ............................................................................................................................. 24 Annex 1: A brief description of the Nordic crises ....................................................................28 Annex 2: Timelines and conditionality of support in the Nordic crises .................................... 29 Norway (1988–93) .........................................................................................................29 Finland (1991–93) .........................................................................................................32 Sweden (1991–94) ........................................................................................................33 Annex 3: Support packages in the Nordic crises .................................................................... 36 Annex 4: The global financial crisis ........................................................................................39 iv Introduction1 History indicates that the way financial crises are managed and resolved can deeply influence subsequent economic performance.2 The response can affect the length of the slump, the speed and strength of the subsequent recovery and, in all probability, the long- term growth rate too. The response of the Nordic countries to their banking crises in the late 1980s and early 1990s has been widely regarded as exemplary, setting a helpful blueprint for future efforts. It was swift, comprehensive and in-depth, helping to re-establish the basis for sustainable growth. While the resolution of the current crisis is still unfolding, it is now over two years since the turbulence started. This seems a good time to draw a comparison with the Nordic precedent: it is still too early for a full post-mortem, but early enough to help inform current policies.3 We address the following questions. How does the management of the current crisis compare with that of the Nordic countries and the corresponding principles for successful crisis resolution? To the extent that it differs, what are the main reasons, and what might be the possible consequences? Our analysis indicates that current policies have followed those principles in some respects, but have fallen short in other, arguably more important, ones. If anything, the authorities have intervened even earlier than in the Nordic precedent. In the current episode, the down-leg of the financial cycle had not proceeded as far and banks were further away from the point of technical insolvency. However, the underlying weakness in balance sheets has not been recognised as fully. Efforts to write down assets and induce underlying adjustment in the sector have not been as extensive. Impaired assets have been kept on balance sheets at highly uncertain, and possibly inflated, values. The conditions attached to financial support have not been