Environmental Change and the Carbon Balance of Amazonian Forests
Biol. Rev. (2014), 89, pp. 913–931. 913 doi: 10.1111/brv.12088 Environmental change and the carbon balance of Amazonian forests Luiz E. O. C. Aragao˜ 1,2,∗, Benjamin Poulter3, Jos B. Barlow4,5, Liana O. Anderson2,6, Yadvinder Malhi6, Sassan Saatchi7, Oliver L. Phillips8 and Emanuel Gloor8 1College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Geography University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, U.K. 2Remote Sensing Division, National Institute for Space Research, Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, S˜ao Jos´e dos Campos, Sao Paulo 12227-010, Brazil 3Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L’Environment, CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91190, Gif-sur Yvette, France 4Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, U.K. 5Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Av. Perimetral, 1901, Bel´em, Par´a 66077-830, Brazil 6School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, U.K. 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109, U.S.A. 8School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, U.K. ABSTRACT Extreme climatic events and land-use change are known to influence strongly the current carbon cycle of Amazonia, and have the potential to cause significant global climate impacts. This review intends to evaluate the effects of both climate and anthropogenic perturbations on the carbon balance of the Brazilian Amazon and to understand how they interact with each other. By analysing the outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4) model ensemble, we demonstrate that Amazonian temperatures and water stress are both likely to increase over the 21st Century.
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