Modelling Disrupted Transport Network Behaviour By Kasun Wijayaratna B.E (Honours Class 1), B.Comm A thesis presented in the fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty of Engineering The University of New South Wales September 2016 Modelling Disrupted Transport Network Behaviour COPYRIGHT AND AUTHENTICITY STATEMENTS Copyright Statement ‘I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all proprietary rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstract International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). I have either used no substantial portions of copyright material in my thesis or I have obtained permission to use copyright material; where permission has not been granted I have applied/will apply for a partial restriction of the digital copy of my thesis or dissertation.' Signed ……………………………………………………. Date ………10/09/2016……………………................ Authenticity Statement ‘I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis. No emendation of content has occurred and if there are any minor variations in formatting, they are the result of the conversion to digital format.’ Signed ……………………………………………………. Date ………10/09/2016……………………................ Kasun Wijayaratna iii Modelling Disrupted Transport Network Behaviour ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Signed ……………………………………………………. Date ………21/07/2016……………………................ Kasun Wijayaratna iv Modelling Disrupted Transport Network Behaviour Kasun Wijayaratna v Modelling Disrupted Transport Network Behaviour ABSTRACT The transport planning process is reliant on modelling tools to appropriately assess and mitigate current issues whilst also developing a sustainable network for the future. In the context of road infrastructure management, modelling approaches used in practice assign traffic throughout a network based on concepts of equilibrium. It is assumed that users of a network make rational decisions based on knowledge of the network characteristics and choose the best route available to minimise travel costs. Disruptions on a network such as traffic incidents, crashes, and inclement weather transforms normal driving behaviour as well as route choice. Accordingly, traditional equilibrium concepts cannot appropriately account for the presence of disruptions which restrict holistic modelling of transport scenarios. This thesis presents an investigation into the understanding of driving behaviour under disrupted conditions and the subsequent development of traffic assignment models that consider the potential for disrupted conditions. Initially, this research presents an empirical analysis of traffic data on competing parallel routes, comparing normal and disrupted conditions. The findings indicate the presence of adaptive route choice behaviour in disrupted conditions. Thus, this thesis postulates that a disruption results in a release of information to the road user which creates an adaptation of routing and changes travel behaviour. Information can be supplied through visual cues of the disruption itself, such as the development of a queue or the appearance of brake lights or through navigation technology and Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS). Hence, the remainder of the thesis focuses on two components; impacts of information on driving behaviour and the incorporation of information acquisition into network modelling. Concepts of experimental economics were used to develop a controlled laboratory experiment to study the impact of the presence of information on road users’ risk Kasun Wijayaratna vi Modelling Disrupted Transport Network Behaviour attitudes. The findings reveal that risk attitudes change in the context of information which has the potential to result in an overvaluation of information sources. Neglecting this behavioural finding significantly affects the economic appraisal of informational infrastructure within road networks. Using the principles of ‘User Equilibrium with Recourse’ (UER), the research proposes static (Disrupted Equilibrium Assignment with Recourse (DEAR)) and dynamic (Dynamic User Optimal with Recourse (DUOR)) traffic assignment methodologies. These methodologies consider the adaptive behaviour of users in light of en route information acquisition. The novelty of the approaches stem from equilibration of routing policies, a set of feasible adaptive paths, rather than strict deterministic paths used in conventional assignment methods. Applications of the models suggest the increase in system wide costs when accounting for disruptions and in general highlight the benefits of information provision. Finally, analytical evidence indicated that online information provision in the context of disrupted conditions does not necessarily reduce the travel costs of road users resulting in an Online Information Paradox. This thesis studies the empirical presence of the paradox through a controlled experiment. The paradox was observed throughout all experiment session and the presence of the paradox was statistically significant at a confidence level of 95%. The empirical observation of the Online Information Paradox creates an additional consideration for transport authorities during the evaluation and implementation of ITS and ATIS infrastructure within road networks. The core contribution of the research effort is to develop novel modelling techniques that can account for disrupted conditions and the adaptive behaviour associated with the disruptions. These approaches provide the foundation for the development of practical tools that are more capable of assessing the reliability and vulnerability of road networks in the presence of disrupted conditions. Kasun Wijayaratna vii Modelling Disrupted Transport Network Behaviour ACKNOWLEDGMENTS There are a number of people and organisations that made this research project a reality. Firstly I would like to thank my supervisors, Professor S. Travis Waller and Dr Vinayak Dixit who have sacrificed their valuable time and passed on their vast knowledge in guiding me through the PhD process. I am incredibly grateful for their invaluable suggestions, detailed explanations and constructive criticism of the work. They have been amazing mentors whom I will always look up to. Research is a collaborative process. The University of New South Wales and particularly the staff and students at the Research Centre for Integrated Transport Innovation have been pillars of support throughout the process. Specifically, Dr Melissa Duell was an integral contributor to the development of the DEAR model presented in Chapter 4 and has been there from the start of my journey. Dr David Rey and Dr Lauren Gardner have also helped me through many long discussions teaching me about transport and research. I would also like to thank two undergraduate students, Kenneth Lam and Lukas Labutis, whom I was fortunate enough to co-supervise their undergraduate Honours Theses. They provided incredible assistance in collecting and analysing data presented in Chapter 2 and coding the developed algorithms in Chapter 5. I wish to also thank Ms Sarah Gurr from the Roads and Maritime Services of New South Wales, who provided the necessary incident and traffic data. Finally I would like to thank my family and friends who have helped me immensely and coped with me during the last 4 years. My brother, Sahan, and my dear friends Thomas Brown and Christina Chiu have provided me unconditional support at a technical and emotional level which I will always cherish. I would like especially to thank my father for his enduring engineering wisdom and my mother for proof reading the entire thesis and helping me manage the editing process. Without my family’s love, understanding, encouragement and patience, this project would never have been possible. Kasun Wijayaratna viii Modelling Disrupted Transport Network Behaviour LIST OF RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS AND AWARDS The following provides a list of the conference and journal publications that have contributed towards the development of the thesis; Published or Presented Papers Wijayaratna K.P.; Labutis L.N.; Waller S.T. (2014). ‘Dynamic User Optimal traffic assignment with recourse’. In: Proceedings of the 19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2014