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National Climate Change Risk Assessment for New Zealand: Technical Report

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National Climate Change Risk Assessment for New Zealand: Technical Report National Climate Change Risk Assessment for New Zealand Arotakenga Tūraru mō te Huringa Āhuarangi o Āotearoa Technical report Pūrongo Whaihanga This document may be cited as: Ministry for the Environment. 2020. National Climate Change Risk Assessment for New Zealand – Arotakenga Tūraru mō te Huringa Āhuarangi o Āotearoa: Technical report – Pūrongo whaihanga. Wellington: Ministry for the Environment. Disclaimer The information in this publication is, according to the Ministry for the Environment’s best efforts, accurate at the time of publication. The information provided does not alter the laws of New Zealand and other official guidelines or requirements. Users should take specific advice from qualified professional people before undertaking any action, as a result of information obtained from this publication. The Ministry for the Environment does not accept any responsibility or liability whether in contract, tort, equity or otherwise, for any action taken as a result of reading, or reliance placed on the Ministry for the Environment because of having read any part, or all, of the information in this publication or for any error, or inadequacy, deficiency, flaw in or omission from the information provided in this publication. Acknowledgements Prepared for the Ministry for the Environment by a consortium led by AECOM, including Tonkin + Taylor Ltd, NIWA and Latitude and a number of independent contractors. Published in July 2020 by the Ministry for the Environment Manatū Mō Te Taiao PO Box 10362, Wellington 6143, New Zealand ISBN: 978-1-98-857995-5 (online) Publication number: ME 1508 © Crown copyright New Zealand 2020 This document is available on the Ministry for the Environment website: www.mfe.govt.nz. Contents 1 Introduction 10 1.1 Purpose and format of this report 10 1.2 Overview of the value domains and cross-cutting concepts 11 1.3 Key concepts 15 2 Climate change in New Zealand 18 2.1 Overview 18 2.2 Global context 19 2.3 Climate projections 21 2.4 Climate projections and hazards 22 2.5 Temperature 23 2.6 Precipitation 26 2.7 Drought 29 2.8 Wind 29 2.9 Solar radiation 30 2.10 Relative humidity 32 2.11 Coastal and marine 33 3 Natural environment domain | Rohe taiao 36 3.1 Domain description 36 3.2 Snapshot of issues and themes 36 3.3 Summary of climate change risks 37 3.4 Climate change risks 38 3.5 Gaps in knowledge 78 4 Human domain | Rohe tangata 80 4.1 Domain description 80 4.2 Snapshot of issues and themes 80 4.3 Summary of climate change risks and opportunities 81 4.4 Climate change risks and opportunities 82 4.5 Gaps in knowledge 105 5 Economy domain | Rohe ōhanga 106 5.1 Domain description 106 5.2 Snapshot of issues and themes 106 5.3 Summary of climate change risks and opportunities 107 5.4 Climate change risks and opportunities 108 National Climate Change Risk Assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand: Technical report 3 5.5 Gaps in knowledge 136 6 Built environment domain | Rohe tūranga tangata 137 6.1 Domain description 137 6.2 Snapshot of issues and themes 137 6.3 Summary of climate change risks and opportunities 138 6.4 Climate change risks and opportunities 139 6.5 Gaps in knowledge 173 7 Governance domain | Rohe kāwanatanga 174 7.1 Domain description 174 7.2 Snapshot of issues and themes 174 7.3 Summary of climate change risks 175 7.4 Climate change risks 176 7.5 Gaps in knowledge 198 References 199 Appendix A: Glossary 228 Appendix B: Direction of change for climate hazards 234 4 National Climate Change Risk Assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand: Technical report Tables Table 1: Overview of NCCRA reports 10 Table 2: Technical report overview 10 Table 3: Value domains used for assessing risks and opportunities 12 Table 4: Elements at risk in each value domain 12 Table 5: Summary of climate change projections for New Zealand (Ministry for the Environment, 2018) 22 Table 6: Average temperature 23 Table 7: Mean projected change (and 5–95% confidence interval range) in annual mean temperature for 2040 and 2090 under RCP8.5 23 Table 8: Heatwaves and number of hot days 24 Table 9: Cold (frosty) nights 25 Table 10: Wildfire 25 Table 11: Average precipitation 26 Table 12: Wet days and heavy rainfall 28 Table 13: Snow days 28 Table 14: Drought 29 Table 15: Wind 29 Table 16: Solar radiation 30 Table 17: Relative humidity 32 Table 18: Mean sea-level rise 33 Table 19: Projected mean sea-level rise (metres above 1986–2005 baseline) for the wider New Zealand region under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, shown by the top three scenarios (Ministry for the Environment, 2017b) 34 Table 20: Ocean temperature and marine heatwaves 35 Table 21: Ocean chemistry 35 Table 22: Summary of climate change risks in the natural environment domain 37 Table 23: N1 Risks to coastal ecosystems: Urgency profile 41 Table 24: N2 Risks to indigenous ecosystems and species: Urgency profile 45 Table 25: N3 Risks to riverine ecosystems and species: Urgency profile 49 Table 26: N4 Risks to wetland ecosystems and species: Urgency profile 51 Table 27: N5 Risks to migratory and/or coastal and riverbed nesting birds: Urgency profile 54 Table 28: N6 Risks to lake ecosystems: Urgency profile 58 Table 29: N7 Risks to terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems: Urgency profile 62 Table 30: N8 Risks to oceanic ecosystem productivity and functioning: Urgency profile 65 Table 31: N9 Risks to sub-alpine ecosystems: Urgency profile 68 National Climate Change Risk Assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand: Technical report 5 Table 32: N10 Risks to carbonate-based hard-shelled species from ocean acidification: Urgency profile 72 Table 33: N11 Risks to the long-term composition and stability of indigenous forest ecosystems: Urgency profile 75 Table 34: N12 Risks to the diverse range of threatened and endangered species: Urgency profile 78 Table 35: Summary of climate change risks and opportunities in the human domain 81 Table 36: H1 Risks to social cohesion and community wellbeing from displacement of individuals, families and communities: Urgency profile 85 Table 37: H2 Risks of exacerbating existing inequities and creating new and additional inequities: Urgency profile 88 Table 38: H3 Risks to physical health from exposure to storm events, heatwaves, vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water availability and resource quality and accessibility: Urgency profile 91 Table 39: H4 Risks of conflict, disruption and loss of trust in government from changing patterns in the value of assets and competition for access to scarce resources: Urgency profile 94 Table 40: H5 Risks to Māori social, cultural, spiritual and economic wellbeing from loss and degradation of lands and waters, as well as cultural assets such as marae: Urgency profile 96 Table 41: H6 Risks to Māori social, cultural, spiritual and economic wellbeing from loss of species and biodiversity: Urgency profile 98 Table 42: H7 Risks to mental health, identity, autonomy and sense of belonging and wellbeing from trauma: Urgency profile 101 Table 43: H8 Risks to Māori and European cultural heritage sites: Urgency profile 104 Table 44: HO1 Opportunity for reduction in cold weather-related mortality due to warmer temperatures: Urgency profile 105 Table 45: Summary of climate change risks and opportunities in the economy domain 107 Table 46: E1 Risks to governments from economic costs associated with lost productivity, disaster relief expenditure and unfunded contingent liabilities due to extreme weather events and ongoing, gradual changes: Urgency profile 110 Table 47: E2 Risks to the financial system from instability due to extreme weather events and ongoing, gradual changes: Urgency profile 115 Table 48: E3 Risks to land-based primary sector productivity and output due to changing precipitation and water availability, temperature, seasonality, climate extremes and the distribution of invasive species: Urgency profile 120 Table 49: E4 Risks to tourism from changes to landscapes and ecosystems and impacts on lifeline infrastructure: Urgency profile 124 Table 50: E5 Risks to fisheries from changes in the characteristics, productivity and spatial distribution of fish stocks: Urgency profile 127 Table 51: E6: Risks to the insurability of assets: Urgency profile 130 6 National Climate Change Risk Assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand: Technical report Table 52: E7 Risks to businesses and public organisations from supply chain and distribution network disruptions: Urgency profile 134 Table 53: EO1 Opportunities for increased productivity in some primary sectors: Opportunity urgency profile 135 Table 54: EO2 Opportunity for businesses to provide adaptation-related goods and services: Opportunity urgency profile 136 Table 55: Summary of climate change risks and opportunities in the built environment domain 138 Table 56: B1 Risk to potable water supplies (availability and quality): Urgency profile 143 Table 57: B2 Risks to buildings: Urgency profile 148 Table 58: B3 Risks to landfills and contaminated sites: Urgency profile 152 Table 59: B4 Risk to wastewater and stormwater systems (and levels of service): Urgency profile 156 Table 60: B5 Risks to ports and associated infrastructure: Urgency profile 159 Table 61: B6 Risks to linear transport networks: Urgency profile 164 Table 62: B7 Risk to airports: Urgency profile 167 Table 63: B8 Risks to electricity infrastructure: Urgency profile 172 Table 64: BO1 Opportunity for reduction in winter heating demand: Opportunity urgency profile 173 Table 65: Summary of climate change risks in the governance domain 175 Table 66: G1 Risk of maladaptation across all domains: Urgency profile 178 Table 67:
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