East Midlands Perspective

Pegasus Planning for the Future Group White Paper and Changes to the Current Planning System Consultations – An East Midlands Perspective

The Standard Method and Transitional Arrangements for Local Plan Preparation

OCTOBER 2020

Introduction This Briefing Note has been prepared by Pegasus Group and focuses on the implications of the Government consultations on Changes to the Current Planning System and the White Paper in the East Midlands region. Since the publication of the White Paper and the accompanying consultation on more immediate changes to the planning system, the key matters of interest for those engaged in the planning system have been the implications of the proposed revised standard methodology for determining local housing need and the timescales for local authorities to have new plans in place. This note looks at both of these issues.

DESIGN ENVIRONMENT PLANNING ECONOMICS HERITAGE 2 Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - East Midlands

The New Standard Methodology - What it Means for the East Midlands The Pegasus Briefing Note provides a commentary on the proposed changes to the standard methodology for the calculation of local housing need. A lot could change as a result of the current consultation, but based on what we know, what are the implications for the East Midlands? We have looked at the likely housing figures from the new methodology and compared them with current local plan housing figures to look at how the figures relate to what local authorities are currently planning for.

Overall, the standard method would identify a housing need in excess of the number of homes planned for within the adopted housing requirements across the region, with some limited exceptions. For some local authorities the increases are significant, and this raises the question whether such increases in annual housing provision are actually realistically deliverable.

Derbyshire Derbyshire For Derbyshire, the headlines are a slight reduction in the annual requirement compared 1,400 1,200 with the local plan figure. However, the plan figure includes redistribution to adjoining 1,000 local authorities. South Derbyshire sees a significant increase from 742 dwellings a 800 year to 1,209 dwellings a year – a combination of the 2018 household projections and 600 affordability issues. Amber Valley and Bolsover also see noticeable increases. 400 200 0

Derby Er ewa sh Bolsover High Peak Amber Valley Chesterfiel d Derbyshire Dales South D er bys hire North East Derbyshire

SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - East Midlands 3

Leicestershire Leicestershire Including Rutland Again, the urban area – Leicester in this case, sees a slight reduction in the annual 1,800 1,600 requirement from the local plan figure of 1,280 dwellings to 1,119 dwellings. A 1,400 number of Leicestershire authorities see very significant increases including North 1,200 1,000 West Leicestershire – 1,153 dwellings a year from 481 dwellings, Harborough – 1,238 800 dwellings a year from 640 dwellings, Blaby – 1,148 dwellings a year from 380 dwellings 600 400 and Charnwood 1,636 dwellings a year from the 820 dwellings in the adopted Core 200 Strategy. Rutland County also sees an increase from 150 dwellings a year to 307 0 dwellings. In contrast Melton sees a reduction to 205 dwellings a year from the 245 Blaby dwellings in the Local Plan. Melton Rutland Leicester Charnwood Harborough North West… Whilst the scale of these increases may seem good news for the development industry, Oadby and Wigston there is a concern that such increase will not be realistically deliverable. If the proposed Hinckley and Bosworth standard methodology presents increases that are excessive, this risks delay as local authorities seek to challenge the approach and, in the end, threatens delivery if the SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement required uplift cannot be achieved.

Lincolnshire Lincolnshire Overall, the new standard method requirement would result in a 31.3% increase over 900 existing plans. Cannock Chase and South Staffordshire represent the authorities with 800 the largest increases and Lichfield, East Staffordshire and Staffordshire Moorlands see a 700 modest fall in required provision. 600 500 For Lincolnshire, increase against current local plan figures are less marked, although 400 East Lindsey would see an increase from 559 dwellings a year to 819 dwellings and 300 Lincoln would see a reduction from 513 dwellings a year to 294 dwellings. 200 100 0 Boston Ea st Lindsey Lincoln North South South West Lindsey Kesteven Holland Kesteven

SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement 4 Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - East Midlands

Nottinghamshire Nottinghamshire For Nottinghamshire, a similar picture applies with a reduction for Nottingham City 1,200 from 1,009 dwellings a year to 897 dwellings contrasting with significant increases 1,000 for Rushcliffe (1,054 dwellings a year from 374 dwellings), Ashfield (814 dwellings a 800 year from 428 dwellings), and Newark and Sherwood (764 dwellings a year from 454 600 dwellings). As with Leicestershire, there must be concerns over the ability of local 400 authorities to deliver these increases in practice. 200 0

Ashfield Gedling Bassetlaw Broxtowe Mansfield Rushcliffe Notting ha m

Newark and Sher wood

SM according to consultation Local Plan Auual Requirement

Northamptonshire Northamptonshire For Northamptonshire, East Northamptonshire (821 dwellings a year from 420 dwellings, 1,200 Corby (799 dwellings from 460 dwellings) and Daventry (970 dwellings from 707 1,000 dwellings) see significant increases, with Northampton itself see a reduction from 1,048 800 dwellings a year to 811 dwellings. 600 400 200 0

Corby South… Daventry Kettering Northampton Wel ling borough

East Northamptonshire

SM according to consultation Local Plan Annual Requirement Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - East Midlands 5

Timescales and Transitional Provisions The current consultations relate to two documents. Changes to the Current Planning Authorities with plans in place in the last three years are set out in Table 1 below. System contains proposals that could be introduced through changes to the NPPF and They will have to bring in plans in line with the new system, including the new Planning Practice Guidance quite quickly, but the more fundamental changes outlined standard method for housing requirements, but will have 3 ½ years to bring the plan in the White Paper will require new primary and secondary legislation. The Government forward. advises that they expect new Local Plans prepared in accordance with the proposals of the White Paper to be in place by the end of this Parliament – May 2024. LOCAL AUTHORITY LOCAL PLAN POSITION WHAT DOES THIS MEAN… The documents set out transitional provisions and expected timescales for preparing new Bolsover Adopted Local Plan March Local Plans. In terms of transitional provisions, the consultation document on Changes 2020 to the Current Planning System advises that local authorities can proceed with plans based on the current standard method rather than the new standard method where they Chesterfield Adopted Local Plan July 2020 will be at or close to the Regulation 19 Pre-Submission consultation stage by the time the new guidance is introduced; Derbyshire Dales Adopted Local Plan December 2017 • LPAs at Reg 19 will have 6 months to submit their plan to the Secretary of State; Newark and Sherwood Adopted Plan Review • LPAs close to Reg 19 will need to publish their plan in 3 months and submit it to the March 2019 Secretary of State in 6 months. Harborough Adopted Local Plan April 42 months to adopt a 2019 Thereafter, Local Plans will be subject to the proposed revised standard method until new Local Plan from the legislative reforms of the White Paper are enacted and national policy revised Melton Adopted Local Plan when the legislation is accordingly. October 2018 brought into force North West Leicestershire Adopted Local Plan The White Paper sets out expectations for the timescales for preparing new Local November 2017 Plans. There will be a statutory requirement for local authority to have a new style plan in place 2 ½ years after the relevant legislation is in place. The exception will be those Oadby and Wigston Adopted Local Plan April 2019 local authorities with plans adopted in the last 3 years or with plans submitted for examination. They will have 3 ½ years to get a new plan in place. South East Lincolnshire Adopted Local Plan March (Boston and South Holland) 2019 For the East Midlands, North East Derbyshire District Council and Mansfield are at East Lindsey Adopted Local Plan July examination so will be able to continue on the basis of their current plans. Rutland 2018 County Council and Leicester City Council were close to publishing Reg 19 Plans before the Covid-19 crisis so should also be able to progress on the current figures. Charnwood South Kesteven Adopted Local Plan January 2020 were programmed to move towards a Reg 19 plan. Again, they should be in a position to get to Reg 19 stage within 3 months of the relevant new regulations being enacted. TABLE 1 – LOCAL AUTHORITIES WITH RECENTLY ADOPTED PLANS Similarly, Bassetlaw are also likely to get to Reg 19 within the 3 month period. 6 Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - East Midlands

Appendix 1 - New Standard Method for East Midlands LPAs - LPA COUNTY DWELLING TOTAL 2019 STOCK 0.5% OF CURRENT STOCk DWELLING 2018 HOUSEHOLD 2020- PROJECTIONS 2030 STEP 1 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRI INCOME RATIO CETO 2009 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRICE INCOME RATIO TO 2019 STEP 2 TO SM ACCORDING CONSULTATION CURRENT SM PLAN ANNUAL LCOAL REQUIREMENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LP AND NEW SM % CHANGE Amber Valley Derbyshire 58,120 291 490 490 5.03 5.95 1.35 663 387 435 228 52.3% Bolsover Derbyshire 36,157 181 332 332 4.56 5.55 1.34 446 230 272 174 64.1% Chesterfield Derbyshire 49,694 248 184 248 4.77 5.57 1.30 323 240 240 83 34.4% Derby Derbyshire 110,748 554 432 554 3.77 4.22 1.13 624 883 647 -23 -3.6% Derbyshire Dales Derbyshire 35,141 176 200 200 8.22 9.66 1.71 343 229 284 59 20.9% Erewash Derbyshire 52,391 262 225 262 5.49 6.19 1.31 344 393 368 -24 -6.6% High Peak Derbyshire 42,627 213 263 263 5.89 7.42 1.60 420 274 350 70 20.1% North East Derbyshire Derbyshire 45,987 230 270 270 5.77 7.17 1.55 419 248 215 204 94.7% South Derbyshire Derbyshire 45,363 227 758 758 5.60 7.18 1.59 1,209 552 742 467 62.9% Blaby Leicestershire 43,532 218 587 587 5.34 8.13 1.96 1,148 339 380 768 202.1% Charnwood Leicestershire 75,581 378 920 920 5.41 7.62 1.78 1,636 1,082 820 816 99.5% Harborough Leicestershire 39,891 199 512 512 6.83 10.81 2.42 1,238 542 640 598 93.5% Hinckley and Leicestershire 50,751 254 621 621 6.18 7.13 1.43 889 457 450 439 97.6% Bosworth Leicester Leicestershire 137,116 686 686 686 5.01 6.83 1.63 1,119 1,712 1,280 -161 -12.5% Melton Leicestershire 23,185 116 115 116 6.70 8.61 1.77 205 201 245 -40 -16.5% North West Leicestershire 45,513 228 761 761 5.84 7.12 1.52 1,153 379 481 672 139.7% Leicestershire Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - East Midlands 7

Appendix 1 - New Standard Method for East Midlands LPAs - LPA COUNTY DWELLING TOTAL 2019 STOCK 0.5% OF CURRENT STOCk DWELLING 2018 HOUSEHOLD 2020- PROJECTIONS 2030 STEP 1 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRI INCOME RATIO CETO 2009 MEDIAN WORKPLACE BASED HOUSE PRICE INCOME RATIO TO 2019 STEP 2 TO SM ACCORDING CONSULTATION CURRENT SM PLAN ANNUAL LCOAL REQUIREMENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LP AND NEW SM % CHANGE Oadby and Wigston Leicestershire 23,259 116 61 116 6.51 8.74 1.85 216 155 148 68 45.7% Rutland Rutland 17,567 88 191 191 7.74 8.94 1.61 307 127 150 157 105.0% (historically Leicestershire) Boston Lincolnshire 30,137 151 302 302 5.61 6.78 1.47 443 254 310 133 42.9% East Lindsey Lincolnshire 68,048 340 633 633 6.07 6.60 1.30 819 416 559 260 46.6% Lincoln Lincolnshire 44,509 223 130 223 4.95 5.79 1.32 294 287 513 -219 -42.7% North Kesteven Lincolnshire 51,353 257 433 433 7.05 7.56 1.35 585 460 513 72 14.0% South Holland Lincolnshire 41,219 206 375 375 6.09 7.42 1.55 580 428 467 113 24.3% South Kesteven Lincolnshire 63,771 319 465 465 6.30 8.42 1.81 839 767 650 189 29.1% West Lindsey Lincolnshire 42,668 213 292 292 6.07 6.43 1.24 363 336 513 -150 -29.2% Corby Northamptonshire 29,842 149 484 484 5.35 7.17 1.65 799 496 460 339 73.8% Daventry Northamptonshire 36,284 181 540 540 7.34 9.22 1.80 970 372 707 263 37.2% East Northamptonshire 40,481 202 520 520 6.58 7.92 1.58 821 473 420 401 95.5% Northamptonshire Kettering Northamptonshire 45,340 227 521 521 5.72 7.42 1.64 853 541 520 333 64.1% Northampton Northamptonshire 97,226 486 392 486 5.10 7.02 1.67 811 1,333 1,048 -237 -22.6% South Northamptonshire 40,033 200 457 457 7.92 9.99 1.89 864 491 612 252 41.1% Northamptonshire 8 Pegasus Group - Planning White Paper - Regional Notes - East Midlands

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