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Adaptation to the effects of drought and climate change in Agro-ecological Regions I and II in Zambia 1 Adaptation to the effects of drought and climate change in Agro-ecological Regions I and II in Zambia Government of the Republic of Zambia United Nations Development Programme PIMS No. 3942 Adaptation to the effects of drought and climate change in Agro-ecological Regions I and II in Zambia Brief description The majority of Zambia’s farmers lack the capacity, resources and financial assistance to adapt to and overcome worsening climatic conditions. The Zambia National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) highlights that Zambian communities are vulnerable to climatic hazards (such as drought, flooding, extreme temperatures and prolonged dry spells) which precipitate widespread crop failure, negatively impact food and water security and, ultimately, affect the sustainability of rural livelihoods. Indeed, within the last 20 years, prolonged dry spells and shorter rainfall seasons have reduced maize yields to only 40% of the long-term average. Furthermore, based on a CO2 doubling scenario in these regions, estimates predict a yield reduction of approximately 66% under rain-fed conditions. The ability of the agricultural sector in Zambia to cope with increases in temperature and potential reductions in rainfall is negligible. Reasons include: i) low levels of investment ii) land degradation; iii) limited access to agricultural inputs such as fertilizer; and iv) a reduced labour force due to HIV/AIDS. To reduce the vulnerability of communities in AER I and II to climate change impacts, the project will take a two pronged-approach: i) mainstream adaptation into agricultural planning at national, district and community levels to make the case for increased investment in adaptation in the agricultural sector ii) test and evaluate the adaptation value of interventions that protect and improve agricultural incomes from the effects of climate change. Capacity and systems to anticipate assess and prepare for climate change risks will be developed at community, regional and national levels. Adaptation learning generated from the pilot projects will be used to guide mainstreaming of adaptation in national fiscal, regulatory and development policies, to support adaptive practices on a wider scale. The following four outcomes will be delivered: 1. Climate change risks integrated into critical decision-making processes for agricultural management at the local, sub-national and national levels 2. Agricultural productivity in the pilot sites made resilient to the anticipated impacts of climate change 3. National fiscal, regulatory and development policy revised to promote adaptation responses in the agricultural sector 4. Knowledge and lessons learned to support implementation of adaptation measures compiled and disseminated The project will address the barriers that prevent the scaling up of successful interventions and the adoption of profitable activities by local entrepreneurs. Barriers that will be overcome by the project include: i) limited access to markets ii) limited climate risk information used in agricultural planning iii) limited institutional capacity to adequately address climate change; and iv) limited public awareness of climate change and the need to adapt. 2 Adaptation to the effects of drought and climate change in Agro-ecological Regions I and II in Zambia Acronyms ADC Area Development Committee LDC Least Developed Country AER Agro-ecological Region LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund APDD Agriculture Policy Planning Department MACO Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives APR Annual Project Report MDG Millennium Development Goal ASIP Agriculture Sector Investment M&E Monitoring and Evaluation Programme AWP Annual Work Plan MEWD Ministry of Energy and Water Development BEO Block Extension Officer MT Metric tons CAC Camp Agricultural Committee MTENR Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources CAP Conservation Agriculture Project NAIS National Agricultural Information Services CASPP Conservation Agriculture Scaling up from NAP National Agricultural Policy Increased Productivity and Production CBD Convention on Biological Diversity NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action CCFU Climate Change Facilitation Unit NAPSSFZ National Association for Peasant and Small Scale Farmers of Zambia CEO Camp Extension Officer NCSA National Capacity Self Assessment CF Conservation Farming NDMP National Disaster Management Policy CFU Conservation Farming Unit NEX National Execution CIF Cost Insurance and Freight NGO Non-governmental Organisation COMA Community Markets for Conservation NGOCC NGO Coordinating Committee CO DAC District Agriculture Committee NIP National Irrigation Policy DACO District Agricultural Coordination Officer NPE National Policy on Environment DDCC District Development Coordination NTFP Non-Timber Forest Product Committee DMMU Disasters Management and Mitigation PAC Project Appraisal Committee Unit DOA Department of Agriculture PACO Provincial Agricultural Coordination Officer DOF Department of Fisheries PAM Programme Against Malnutrition DSSAT Decision Support System for Agro- PB Project Board 3 Technology Transfer DWA Department of Water Affairs PDCC Provincial Development Coordination Committee EIA Environmental Impact Assessment PIF Project Identification Form EPPCA Environmental Protection and Pollution PIR Project Implementation Report Control Act ERC Evaluation Resource Centre PM Project Manager EWS Early Warning System PPG Project Preparation Grant FMU Financial Management Unit PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers FNDP Fifth National Development Plan PS Project Secretariat FSP Food Security Pack PTC Project Technical Committee GCM Global Circulation Model PTR Project Terminal Report GDP Gross Domestic Product RCU Regional Coordination Unit GEF Global Environmental Facility RMG Results Management Guidelines GNP Gross National Product SADC Southern African Development Community GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia SCCI Seed Certification and Control Institute HADC Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 SNC Second National Communication M3 HDI Human Development Index SRF Strategic Results Framework HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries TPR Tripartite Review HPI Human Poverty Index TTR Terminal Tripartite Review IDA International Development Agency UNCBD United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity 3 Adaptation to the effects of drought and climate change in Agro-ecological Regions I and II in Zambia IDRC International Development and Research UNCCD United Nations Convention on Combating Centre Desertification INC Initial National Communication UNDAF United Nations Development and Assistance Framework IPD Irrigation Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate UNDP United Nations Development Programme Change ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence AER UNDPCA United Nations Development Programme P Country Programme Action Plan IR Inception Report VAC Vulnerability Assessment Committee IW Inception Workshop ZARI Zambia Agriculture Research Institute JASZ Joint Assistance Strategy for Zambia ZMD Zambia Meteorological Department 4 Adaptation to the effects of drought and climate change in Agro-ecological Regions I and II in Zambia TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION I: ELABORATION OF THE NARRATIVE ......................................................................... 8 PART I: Situation Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 8 Zambian context ................................................................................................................................... 8 The Problem ......................................................................................................................................... 9 Root causes ......................................................................................................................................... 14 LDCF Alternative Scenario ................................................................................................................ 16 Barriers .............................................................................................................................................. 18 Institutional baseline .......................................................................................................................... 19 Stakeholder analysis ........................................................................................................................... 20 PART II: STRATEGY ........................................................................................................................... 22 Project Goal, Objectives, Outcomes and Outputs/Activities .............................................................. 24 Project Indicators, Risks and Assumptions ........................................................................................ 49 Expected national and local benefits ................................................................................................. 52 Country Ownership: Country Eligibility and Country Drivenness .................................................... 52 Sustainability ...................................................................................................................................... 54 Replicability ......................................................................................................................................
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