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Croatian Membership in NATO : One of the Crucial Prerequisites for Stabilization of Southeastern Europe

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Croatian Membership in NATO : One of the Crucial Prerequisites for Stabilization of Southeastern Europe Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2002-03 Croatian membership in NATO : one of the crucial prerequisites for stabilization of southeastern Europe Cepanec, Zeljko Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/6084 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS CROATIAN MEMBERSHIP IN NATO: ONE OF THE CRUCIAL PREREQUISITES FOR STABILIZATION OF SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE by Zeljko Cepanec March 2002 Thesis Advisor: Donald Abenheim Second Reader: James Wirtz Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED March 2002 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: Croatian Membership in NATO: One of the Crucial 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Prerequisites for Stability of Southeastern Europe 6. AUTHOR(S) Zeljko Cepanec 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT This thesis analyses the past and present development of Croatia and the Euro-Atlantic political, military and economic spheres. It suggests that the next logical step on the way to a stable and prosperous Southeastern Europe is Croatian admittance to NATO. Croatian membership in NATO is arguably conditio sine qua non for the process of regional stabilization and democratization. This policy became obvious when democratic developments in Croatia in 2000 caused positive changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and in Serbia. The changes in Croatia, accompanied by promising economic achievements and sufficient civilian control over the military, opened the door for Croatia to enter Euro-Atlantic institutions. All the aforementioned achievements, along with Croatia’s contribution to Partnership for Peace and increasing international cooperation in other areas, strongly suggest Croatia’s potential for becoming a full-fledged NATO member and is a significant factor in increasing the security of the region. The thesis argues by providing historical, economic and political facts, that in the present situation, all necessary requirements for NATO membership have been satisfied by Croatia. Therefore, acceptance itself is thus only a political decision of the NATO members. The thesis provides evidence that Croatia has become equally or better prepared than other serious aspirants to be a member of NATO by providing a comparative overview of the basic data considered for admission to NATO. It also demonstrates that Croatian membership represents a significant benefit to the Alliance and contributes to the achievement of the basic NATO goals in Southeastern Europe. Additionally, the thesis addresses various benefits that the neighboring countries might reap from Croatian membership in the Alliance, which will enhance not only regional, but also European security. 14. SUBJECT TERMS: Croatia, NATO, Partnership for Peace, Membership Action Plan, NATO 15. NUMBER OF enlargement, Croatian history, Homeland War, Croatian democratization, European Union, PAGES Southeastern Europe, former Yugoslavia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Serbian 129 aggression. 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited CROATIAN MEMBERSHIP IN NATO: ONE OF THE CRUCIAL PREREQUISITES FOR STABILIZATION OF SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE Zeljko Cepanec Lieutenant Colonel, Croatian Army Bachelor of Political Science, University of Zagreb, 1983 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 2002 Author: Zeljko Cepanec Approved by: Donald Abenheim, Thesis Advisor James Wirtz, Second Reader James Wirtz, Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis analyses the past and present development of Croatia and the Euro- Atlantic political, military and economic spheres. It suggests that the next logical step on the way to a stable and prosperous Southeastern Europe is Croatian admittance to NATO. Croatian membership in NATO is arguably conditio sine qua non for the process of regional stabilization and democratization. This policy became obvious when democratic developments in Croatia in 2000 caused positive changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and in Serbia. The changes in Croatia, accompanied by promising economic achievements and sufficient civilian control over the military, opened the door for Croatia to enter Euro-Atlantic institutions. All the aforementioned achievements, along with Croatia’s contribution to Partnership for Peace and increasing international cooperation in other areas, strongly suggest Croatia’s potential for becoming a full-fledged NATO member and is a significant factor in increasing the security of the region. The thesis argues by providing historical, economic and political facts, that in the present situation, all necessary requirements for NATO membership have been satisfied by Croatia. Therefore, acceptance itself is thus only a political decision of the NATO members. The thesis provides evidence that Croatia has become equally or better prepared than other serious aspirants to be a member of NATO by providing a comparative overview of the basic data considered for admission to NATO. It also demonstrates that Croatian membership represents a significant benefit to the Alliance and contributes to the achievement of the basic NATO goals in Southeastern Europe. Additionally, the thesis addresses various benefits that the neighboring countries might reap from Croatian membership in the Alliance, which will enhance not only regional, but also European security. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. HYPOTHESIS..................................................................................................2 B. THESIS RELEVANCE ...................................................................................2 C. BACKGROUND ..............................................................................................3 1. Crisis in Former Yugoslavia ...............................................................5 2. Epur si muove.......................................................................................9 D. STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS .................................................................13 II. CROATIA – A HISTORICAL OVERVIEW..........................................................15 A. CROATIA UNTIL 1918 ................................................................................16 B. CROATIA UNDER SERBIAN DOMINATION 1918-1991......................21 1. World War II......................................................................................24 2. Communist Yugoslavia......................................................................27 3. Turmoil during the 1980s..................................................................29 C. HOMELAND WAR AND CROATIAN INDEPENDENCE .....................32 1. Initial Stages of Homeland War.......................................................34 2. War Moves to Bosnia – 1992-1993 ...................................................37 3. End of War.........................................................................................39 4. Period from 1996-1999.......................................................................40 D. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................42 III. NATO – FROM THE BEGINNING TO ITS REINVENTION ............................45 A. NATO IN THE COLD WAR........................................................................46 1. Relaxation of Tensions .......................................................................49 2. NATO and Yugoslavia.......................................................................52
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