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ZEE ENTERTAINMENT Resilient Amidst Tough Environ RESULT UPDATE ZEE ENTERTAINMENT Resilient amidst tough environ India Equity Research| Media Zee Entertainment Enterprises’ (ZEE) Q1FY17 revenue and EBITDA growth EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS at 18.5% and 44.1% YoY, respectively, exceeded our expectations led by Absolute Rating BUY robust ad growth and lower programming costs. Key positives: (i) sharp Rating Relative to Sector Outperform 19.2% YoY rise in ad growth led by auto and telecom segments (refer our Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium note, MD investing in multiple new drivers dated June 20, 2016); (ii) Sector Relative to Market Overweight strong 16.7% YoY growth in international subscriptions aided by new offerings in Africa; and (iii) EBITDA margin expanded by 512bps YoY due to 370bps YoY dip in programming cost. Market share gains in regional MARKET DATA (R: ZEE.BO, B: Z IN) CMP : INR 475 markets and Phase III digitisation augur well. Maintain ‘BUY’. Target Price : INR 546 52-week range (INR) : 478 / 347 Firing on all fronts Share in issue (mn) : 960.4 Ad revenue surged 19.2% YoY on good ad growth in auto and telecom sectors. M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 456 / 6,775 However, FMCG ad growth (HUL reported flattish ad growth in Q1FY17) was below Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 2,130.7 average and internet ad growth softened in Q1FY17. Domestic subscription revenue grew ~13.6% YoY, while international revenue shot up ~16.7%. Other sales jumped SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) ~33% YoY aided by successful run by Sairat. Generally, India series in any quarter Current Q3FY16 Q2FY16 results in sports losses. In Q1FY17, though the India-Zimbabwe series were held, ZEE Promoters * 43.1 43.1 43.1 clocked sports EBITDA profit of INR171mn. EBIDTA margins stood higher aided by MF's, FI's & BK’s 3.8 4.2 4.2 lower transmission and programming costs (370bps YoY dip). IND-AS impacted PAT FII's 48.1 47.1 47.6 (though notional) as fair value of preference shares was routed through P/L. Others 5.0 5.6 5.1 * Promoters pledged shares : 16.67 (% of share in issue) Q1FY17 conference call: Key takeaways ZEE plans to expand in Germany, Spain and other geographies, and expects to clock PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) double-digit growth in international subscriptions in FY17. Even though sports profit EW Media Stock Nifty stood at INR171mn, the company guided for INR1bn sport losses in FY17. Original Index programming hours for Zee TV stood at 24 hours. Investment in programming will 1 month 5.8 6.2 6.9 continue and will be more rational. FY17 operating capex will be ~INR700-1,000mn. 3 months 14.8 7.9 12.3 Gross debt stood at INR18.28bn due to reclassification of preferential shares into debt. 12 months 21.4 0.8 15.0 Outlook and valuations: Growth DNA; maintain ‘BUY’ Better ad growth, monetisation of ZEE Anmol, improvement in regional markets and Phase III digitisation are key positives. TV tariff rates will be a key monitorable. At CMP, the stock trades at 38.0x FY17E and 31.3x FY18E EPS. We maintain ’BUY/SO’ with TP of INR546 (36x FY18E EPS). Financials (INR mn) Year to March Q1FY17 Q1FY16 % change Q4FY16 % change FY16 FY17E FY18E Revenues 15,716 13,267 18.5 15,316 2.6 58,515 69,764 80,158 Abneesh Roy EBITDA 4,532 3,146 44.1 4,136 9.6 15,096 18,976 22,444 +91 22 6620 3141 [email protected] Adjusted Profit 3,302 2,385 38.5 2,659 24.2 10,483 13,188 15,773 Adj. diluted EPS 3.4 2.5 38.4 2.8 24.2 9.4 12.5 15.2 Rajiv Berlia +91 22 6623 3377 Diluted P/E (x) 50.5 38.0 31.3 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 30.4 23.9 19.9 ROAE (%) 27.1 28.4 28.3 Q1FY17 and Q1FY16 numbers are as per IND AS July 26, 2016 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Media Table 1: Trends at a glance Revenue break up (INR mn) Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16* Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17* Ad revenue 6,221 6,259 7,426 6,697 7,653 8,433 9,419 8,645 9,120 International ad revenue NA NA NA NA NA 735 812 1,120 705 Domestic ad revenue NA NA NA NA NA 7,698 8,607 7,525 8,415 Domestic subscription 3,238 3,373 3,455 4,175 3,680 3,752 4,188 4,682 4,179 International subscription revenue 1,189 872 1,007 933 945 1,039 1,030 1,262 1,103 Total subscription 4,427 4,245 4,462 5,108 4,625 4,791 5,218 5,944 5,282 Sport business Sales 976 1,181 2,476 1,680 1,519 1,278 1,914 1,601 1,700 Costs 964 1,431 2,746 1,438 1,504 1,256 2,064 1,837 1,529 EBITDA 12 (250) (270) 242 15 22 (150) (236) 171 EBITDA margin (%) 1.2 (21.2) (10.9) 14.4 1.0 1.7 (7.8) (14.7) 10.1 Non-sports business Sales (non-sports) 9,575 9,997 11,161 11,791 11,748 12,571 14,037 13,715 14,016 Costs (non-sports) 6,495 6,543 7,358 9,325 8,617 9,047 9,585 9,344 9,656 EBITDA (non-sports) 3,080 3,455 3,803 2,466 3,131 3,524 4,452 4,372 4,361 EBITDA margin (non-sports) (%) 32.2 34.6 34.1 20.9 26.6 28.0 31.7 31.9 31.1 Growth rate Ad revenues 17.4 7.3 8.5 15.0 23.0 34.7 26.8 29.1 19.2 Domestic subscription 2.2 0.7 4.0 24.9 13.7 11.2 21.2 12.1 13.6 International subscription revenue 10.8 (29.2) (19.0) (27.7) (20.5) 19.2 2.3 35.3 16.7 Total subscription revenues 4.4 (7.3) (2.3) 10.2 4.5 12.9 16.9 16.4 14.2 % of revenue Transmission & programming 38.2 42.1 47.3 46.0 45.5 43.6 44.0 44.9 41.8 Employee cost 10.6 9.7 8.0 9.0 9.9 9.1 8.1 8.5 9.5 EBITDA 29.3 28.7 25.9 20.1 23.7 25.6 27.0 27.0 28.8 PAT 19.9 20.3 22.5 16.9 16.2 19.4 17.2 17.4 18.6 * Q1FY17 and Q1FY16 are as per IND AS Source: Edelweiss research Table 2: Approximate PAT reconciliation INR mn Q1FY16 Q1FY17 YoY growth Comment Reported PAT after IND AS 1,782 2,170 21.8 Add: Fair value impact due to 603 1,132 This is a notional amount which depends on the preference shares mark to market value of preferential shares. Add: Tax on preference shares 62 62 As per IND AS norms, tax outflow on preferential share is part of financial expense. Approx PAT before IND AS 2,446 3,364 37.5 Source: Edelweiss research Q1FY17 Conference Call | Key Takeaways Ad growth Industry ad growth grew by 13-14% YoY. Zee will continue to make efforts to beat industry ad growth. FMCG ad growth was below average, while internet ad growth softened slightly. Automobile and telecom ad growth was good. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Zee Entertainment Enterprises Subscription revenue There was no Phase III subscription revenue during the quarter. The company is still doing fixed deals in Phase III markets. Hence, Phase III benefits will flow later. International ZEE will expand operations to Germany, Spain and other geographies. The company’s new offerings in Africa are driving up the pace of international subscription revenue. It expects to clock double-digit growth in international subscriptions in FY17. Currently, ZEE produces local content only in Arabic. International ad growth will grow at healthy space as the company expands into newer geographies. Studio ZEE wants to figure among the top-5 production houses by 2020. The company plans to produce movie content in Telugu, Kannada and Punjabi languages very soon. It is controlling risks in its production business by taking tge following steps: i) ZEE is producing a mix of films (small to high budget); ii) ~97% cost is written-off in the first week of release and hence no risks are carried on the balance sheet; iii) the company will be adopting the co-production model; and iv) it pre-sales some of its film rights to control risks. Sports The segment did much better gaining from the extra T20 games between India and Zimbabwe. ZEE is still guiding for INR1bn losses in FY17. Programming cost The number of hours has dipped only in the flagship channel, Zee TV. Zee TV has 24 original programming hours. The company wants to only telecast quality content, which will come up in Q2FY17 and Q3FY17. Investments in programming will continue, but it will be more rational. Content cost depends on programming choices between fictional and non-fictional content. IND AS impact As per IND AS, certain kind of investments has to be mark to market. Due to this change, the impact of INR1,130mn was routed through P&L due to change in the price of preferential shares.
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