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Lebanon This Week Issue 305 April 22-27, 2013 Economic Research & Analysis Department LEBANON THIS WEEK In This Issue Charts of the Week Economic Indicators.....................1 Projected Highest Inflation Rate among Upper Middle-Income Countries in 2013* Capital Markets............................1 Lebanon in the News....................2 27.3% 27.2% Lebanon is 82nd most expensive country 25% in the world, third most expensive among 20.5% Arab countries 20% Cost of sending remittances to Lebanon drops in first quarter of 2013 15% Moody's maintains 'negative' outlook on 9.8% 9.6% 9.4% 8.5% banking sector 10% 7.3% 7.2% 6.9% 6.7% 6.6% 6.1% 6% 6% Macroeconomic risks still high 5% Commercial banks utilize 100% of soft loans for new projects, 40% of housing 0% loans Construction permits down 21% in first Iran Brazil quarter of 2013 Serbia Angola Russia Turkey Tunisia Belarus Jamaica Uruguay Lebanon Namibia Venezuela Argentina Lebanon is 107th biggest exporter, 74th Kazakhstan largest importer in 2012 Inflation Rate in Lebanon (%) Value of cleared checks up 1.5%, returned checks up 0.4% in first two 10.8% months of 2013 10% EU supports quality infrastructure in Lebanon 8% 6.7% Corporate Highlights ...................6 5.6% 6% 6.6% Lebanese American University exercises 4.5% call option on bond 4% 5% American University of Beirut included 4.1% among top 100 universities in Asia 2% U.S. blacklists two money dealers 1.2% Change in Intra's shareholding structure 0% Net profits of health insurance branch up 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 71% to $20.4m in 2011, claims up 13% * UMICs with nominal GDP above $10bn to $228.3m Source: International Monetary Fund - April 2013, Byblos Bank Ratio Highlights..........................8 Quote to Note Risk Outlook...............................8 Ratings & Outlook......................8 "A prolonged period of government formation would undermine growth." Standard & Poor's, on one of the risks from delaying the formation of a new Cabinet Number of the Week 91.6%: Percentage of respondents who consider that Lebanese politicians need to respect the constitutional deadline for holding parliamentary elections, according to a nationwide opinion poll conducted by Statistics Lebanon in the first 10 days of April 2013 Economic Indicators $m (unless otherwise mentioned) 2010 Dec 11 2011 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 % Change* Exports 4,256 338 4,276 441 364 381 12.72 Imports 17,956 1,665 20,170 1,774 1,604 1,871 12.37 Trade Balance (13,700) (1,327) (15,894) (1,333) (1,240) (1,490) 12.28 Balance of Payments 3,326 692 (1,996) (97) 179 312 (54.90) Checks Cleared in LBP 13,519 1,370 14,251 1,353 1,287 1,337 (2.37) Checks Cleared in FC 53,925 5,091 57,852 4,732 4,676 4,670 (8.27) Total Checks Cleared 67,444 6,461 72,103 6,085 5,963 6,007 (7.02) Budget Deficit/Surplus (2,894) (391.00) (2,342) (617.49) (807.69) (441.24) 12.85 Primary Balance 1,231 (73.00) 1,662 (215.20) (369.47) (174.33) 138.81 Airport Passengers 5,512,435 445,968 5,596,034 470,190 412,595 495,760 11.16 $bn (unless otherwise mentioned) Dec 2010 Dec 11 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 % Change* BdL FX Reserves 28.60 30.82 29.99 29.46 29.79 29.97 (2.76) In months of Imports 19.46 18.51 18.41 16.61 18.57 16.02 (13.46) Public Debt 52.59 53.66 56.07 56.60 57.55 57.69 7.51 Net Public Debt 45.01 46.37 47.83 48.35 48.87 49.12 5.93 Bank Assets 128.93 140.58 148.36 149.38 150.38 151.88 8.04 Bank Deposits (Private Sector) 107.20 115.72 121.75 122.60 123.13 125.00 8.02 Bank Loans to Private Sector 34.93 39.38 42.29 42.76 42.94 43.45 10.34 Money Supply M2 39.40 38.90 41.81 42.31 42.67 43.17 10.97 Money Supply M3 92.15 97.23 101.50 102.43 102.89 104.01 6.97 LBP Lending Rate (%) 7.91 7.38 7.30 7.31 7.11 7.07 (31b.p.) LBP Deposit Rate (%) 5.68 5.63 5.43 5.43 5.38 5.41 (22b.p.) USD Lending Rate (%) 6.74 7.02 7.16 7.15 7.09 6.87 (15b.p.) USD Deposit Rate (%) 2.80 2.83 2.83 2.87 2.85 2.86 3b.p %* Change in CPI** 6.19 4.27 8.26 8.86 9.48 6.36 209b.p. * Year-on-Year; ** Consumer Price Index Note: b.p. i.e. basis point Sources: ABL, BdL Capital Markets Most Traded Last Price % Change* Total Weight in Sovereign Coupon Mid Price Mid Yield Stocks on BSE ($) Volume Market Eurobonds % $ % Capitalization Solidere "A" 13.17 (1.64) 161,261 11.83% June 2013 8.625 100.80 2.76 Solidere "B" 13.20 0.00 31,331 7.70% Apr. 2014 7.375 105.00 2.06 Byblos Common 1.64 (0.61) 277,879 5.29% Jan. 2015 5.875 103.50 3.74 Byblos Pref. 08 102.50 0.00 0 1.84% Apr. 2015 10.00 111.75 3.80 Byblos Pref. 09 102.90 0.00 0 1.85% Jan. 2016 8.500 110.00 4.55 BLOM GDR 8.55 (5.00) 16,093 5.67% Mar. 2017 9.000 114.50 4.86 BLOM Listed 8.75 0.00 2,460 16.89% Nov. 2018 5.150 99.50 5.26 Audi GDR 6.89 (1.57) 21,736 6.31% Apr. 2021 8.250 114.25 5.97 Audi Listed 6.69 1.36 28,366 21.01% Nov. 2026 6.600 100.75 6.52 HOLCIM 15.50 3.20 6,707 2.72% Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE); *Week-on-week Source: Byblos Bank Capital Markets MApr 22-26arch Apr 15-19 % Change Mar 2013 Mar 2012 % Change Total Shares Traded 576,593 1,423,305 (59.49) 4,985,295 5,403,251 (7.74) Total Value Traded $4,693,985 $8,455,907 (44.49) $31,728,425 $31,890,556 (0.51) Market Capitalization $11.14bn $11.17bn (0.31) $10.90bn $10.84bn 0.55 Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) LEBANON THIS WEEK April 22-27, 2013 1 Lebanon in the News Lebanon is 82nd most expensive country in the world, third most expensive among Arab countries The Cost of Living Index, produced by data and analytics provider Xpatulator, Cost of Living Index Rankings* ranked Lebanon as the 82nd most expensive country among 217 countries and ter- Arab Global ritories and the third most expensive among 20 Arab countries in the first quarter of Rank Rank 2013. In comparison, Lebanon was the 89th costliest country globally and the sev- Qatar 1 42 enth most expensive regionally in the first quarter of 2012, which reflects an UAE 2 55 increase in the cost of living year-on-year. Lebanon 3 82 Djibouti 4 96 The Cost of Living Index measures the cost of living in 780 locations in every coun- Libya 5 111 try and territory around the world. The firm provides data and information to help Bahrain 6 115 companies and employees calculate the difference in salaries, allowances, and the Sudan 7 118 overall cost of living when moving personnel from their current location to a dif- Kuwait 2 120 ferent part of the world. It uses local prices for defined quantities of the same goods Palestine 9 139 and services, and converts them into a single currency. The index evaluates the cost Jordan 10 175 of living in each country by assigning a weighting to 13 basket groups that cover Oman 11 178 Household Accommodation, Transport, Groceries, Recreation & Culture, Iraq 12 181 Healthcare, Education, Furniture & Appliances, Personal Care, Clothing, Syria 13 184 Communication, Alcohol & Tobacco, Restaurants, Meals out & Hotels, and Yemen 14 188 Miscellaneous Items. It uses data from local service providers in each location, Saudi Arabia 15 191 international service providers, official governmental statistics and global agency Egypt 16 196 data. Locations with the highest rankings are the most expensive, while those with Morocco 17 198 the lowest rankings are the least expensive. Mauritania 18 211 Algeria 19 212 Globally, the cost of living in Lebanon is higher than in Guinea-Bissau, Cyprus and Tunisia 20 215 Gabon, while it is lower than in Zambia, Azerbaijan and Timor-Leste. Regionally, *First Quarter of 2013 Lebanon came as less expensive than only the UAE and Qatar. Source: Xpatulator, Byblos Research The survey shows that Lebanon is the sixth most expensive Arab country on the Household Accommodation basket group, which covers apartment prices, rent, mortgage cost, and utilities expenses, among others. It is less expensive than only Qatar, the UAE, Libya, Kuwait and Djibouti on this category. Also, Lebanon is the most expensive country in the region on the Transport basket group, which covers the cost of items such as fuel, vehicle purchases & maintenance, and public transportation. In addition, Lebanon is the fifth most expensive Arab country on the Groceries basket group, which covers items such as consumable goods, dairy products, fresh fruit & vegetables, general foodstuffs, snacks & soft drinks, and cleaning products. It is less expensive than only Djibouti, Sudan, the UAE and Qatar on this category. In parallel, Lebanon is the seventh least expensive Arab country on the Recreation & Culture basket group, which covers the cost of books, cinema, sports and theatre tickets, among others.
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