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National Security Council of the Russian Federation Pacmun 2018 Chair: Bryan Metzger Crisis Director: Benjamin Lee

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National Security Council of the Russian Federation Pacmun 2018 Chair: Bryan Metzger Crisis Director: Benjamin Lee National Security Council of the Russian Federation PacMUN 2018 Chair: Bryan Metzger Crisis Director: Benjamin Lee 1 Table of Contents Introductory Letter 3 Letter from President Putin 4 State of the Nation 5 -Military 5 -Economy 6 -Politics 6 State of the Issue 8 Questions to Consider 9 Character List 10 Citations/Further Reading 14 2 Dear Delegates, It is my pleasure to welcome you to PacMUN 2018! Our team has been working hard on building a conference that is fun and engaging, but also challenging and informative. We hope that you all find this to be true, and that you take this opportunity to learn something new about the world and yourself as we deal with the Syrian Civil War from the perspective of the Russian Federation. As for me, my name is Bryan Metzger, and I’m a junior studying International Relations and (hopefully!) minoring in Arabic at Stanford University. My interests are in international security and the Middle East, and just this past summer, I interned at the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence in Latvia, a center focused on the issue of Russian disinformation and its effect on the NATO alliance. Thus, you can see why I would be excited to host this committee! I’ve also been doing some version of MUN for the past 4 years, ranging from class simulations to high school conferences to a couple of college conferences. I also chaired the China Committee at PACMUN 2017 as we tackled a number of issues, including the South China Sea. I’m originally from Albuquerque, NM, but I have some family ties to Hawaii through my dad’s side of the family, so it’s nice to return once again to the beautiful island of Oahu. Enclosed, you’ll find a background guide detailing much of what you will need to know for this committee. I recommend you read it thoroughly, and I encourage you to further research your character on your own, as it never hurts to be more prepared than everyone else. Above all, I hope that you each enjoy yourselves as we seek a peaceful resolution to the Syrian Civil War. Multi-way crisis committees are unique, exhilarating, and fast-paced, and there’s no telling where the arc of this story will go. Sincerely, Bryan Metzger Chair, Security Council of the Russian Federation 3 Esteemed Advisors, It appears that we are at a crossroads in Syria. The Americans have led NATO to invade on behalf of their so-called rebels, while Bashar al-Assad has proved to be an at-times-unpredictable ally. Despite this, the armed forces of the Russian Federation have persevered and beaten back the tide of Western-led terrorists. We are unfortunately without many allies in this endeavor. Sometimes it is necessary to be lonely in order to prove that you are right. Despite our recent successes, we cannot yet reunite Syria to its prewar glory, as the West has remained steadfast in their commitment to meddle in the affairs of Syria. Today Western military “advisors” remain embedded with a wide variety of terrorist groups operating within the boundaries of the Syrian Arab Republic, including in groups responsible for the death of thousands of loyal Syrian soldiers. As a result of their presence, it is difficult both for the Syrian Arab Army and for ourselves to attack many of these units directly, as we wish to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. It is upon this backdrop that I call you to this meeting. My task for you is quite simple. We must ensure the interests of the Russian Federation are fulfilled with respect to the Levant. This must be done regardless of the feelings of the Americans and their lackeys, but cannot be done without thought of their behavior. The West in many ways is unchanged from my days with the KGB – arrogant, smug, and unmoving. If you can understand the West, you can beat the West. I have full faith in your abilities and expect nothing less than a runaway success. Для России-матушки! Sincerely, Владимир Путин Vladimir Putin President of the Russian Federation 4 State of the Nation N.B. This section has been adapted from Elijah Spiegel’s 2017 Russia Background Guide. All credit to the original author. Military Russia remains one of the three strongest military powers in the world, alongside the US and China. Its defense budget is almost $70 billion, and over three million military personnel (one third of which is active personnel). Since around 2015, as climate change caused ice to recede, Russia stepped up its military presence in the Arctic Circle along its northern coast. In January 2017, Russia signed an agreement with Turkey that, most significantly, would expand Russia’s Tartus naval base on the Syrian coast. Russia also has great capacities for cyber-warfare, a strength demonstrated with a major cyberattack that cut electricity to hundreds of millions of Ukrainians in 2015, and a massive campaign of cyberattacks on Estonia in 2007. Russia’s main military rivals are, of course, the United States and NATO. Compromising them will be necessary to establish a multipolar world order. Russia’s geographic location makes its western flank its most vulnerable. Thus, maintaining influence over Eastern European powers and balancing against Western countries is among Russia’s top priorities. Russia does not currently have the military capacity to stand up to the combined forces of NATO on the ground. To make up for it, Moscow leverages its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent. Russia has expressed readiness to use nuclear retaliation against non-nuclear attacks. Due to this reliance on its missile arsenal to defend its interests, the presence of ballistic missile defense technology in Eastern Europe is one of Russia’s present concerns over regional security. NATO and the US implemented the defenses ostensibly to guard against a potential nuclear Iran. However, these missile defense systems are a long-term threat to Russian national interests. Rather than rely on conventional warfare, Russia has embraced the usage of hybrid warfare, a strategy that combines conventional and unconventional tactics. Today, these unconventional tactics can include cyber warfare and political manipulation. That is not to say that Russia is not prepared for conventional warfare. Russia recently restructured its military command structure to focus on the threat posed by NATO and other large nation-state alliances. However, by pursuing indirect strategies to fracture alliances and cause instability in the West, Russia can pursue its national interests more freely among its Western neighbors. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, and since then, pro-Russian separatist groups have been fighting the Ukrainian government in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. The Minsk II settlement, reached in 2015 and intended to put an end to hostilities in the Donbas region, has yet to be implemented. Some have suggested abandoning the Minsk agreement, but without a viable alternative, the agreement will probably remain on the table in limbo for now. Residents of the contested regions are divided 5 on how to proceed politically. One-third is in support of remaining in Ukraine, another third is in support of having a special status within Ukraine, and the final third is in support of having a special status within Russia. Continuing to maintain a ceasefire could persuade Western European countries to lift sanctions against Russia, but at the cost of holding off on pursuing regional interests in Ukraine by military means. It is difficult to be certain, of course, but there are indications that North Korea also enjoys Russian backing. Russia currently provides economic support to North Korea in trade, internet traffic routing, and fuel. Russia’s interests in the region are primarily to prevent U.S. meddling abroad, since Russia can’t itself compete with China as the major regional player in the Korean peninsula. More concerning, though, is the possibility that Russia is assisting North Korea in developing missile technology. Many weapons experts notice similarities between North Korea’s recent advances in weapons technology and Russian technology seen in the Cold War. Over the past several decades, there has been a steady flow of weapons engineering expertise from Russia to North Korea. Economy Russia is only just recovering from a recession triggered in 2014 by falling oil prices and economic sanctions. Oil and natural gas account for two-thirds of Russia’s exports, and remain so despite years of promises to diversify the Russian economy. Depending on oil and natural gas prices, the Russian GDP is expected to grow by about 1.3 percent for2018,and 2019, while its unemployment rate stands at about 5%. Russia is expecting rising consumption and investments to bolster the economy in the coming years and hopes that a shake-up in world leadership may help to roll back existing sanctions. When talking about the Russian economy, the Russian oligarchs are one of the first topics to come to mind. It is difficult to know how they operate, since most of their political and economic maneuvering happen is not public knowledge, and those who seek to expose them often die in mysterious circumstances. For example, Gareth Williams, a mathematician helping trace international money-laundering tied to Russia was found dead, stuffed in a padlocked bag in a bathtub in his own apartment. The death was ruled “a tragic accident” by Scotland Yard. What little is known is that there are close ties between Russia’s wealthiest and Russia’s political elite. Russian billionaires make gifts to Russian leaders in the form of yachts, villas, and other luxuries. It is more difficult to say what the billionaires ask for in return, but it is unlikely that they give these gifts out of pure charity.
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