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POTENTIAL IMPACTS of the AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA (AFCFTA) on SELECTED OIC COUNTRIES Case of Cote D’Ivoire, Egypt, Guinea, Mozambique, Tunisia and Uganda

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POTENTIAL IMPACTS of the AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA (AFCFTA) on SELECTED OIC COUNTRIES Case of Cote D’Ivoire, Egypt, Guinea, Mozambique, Tunisia and Uganda TECHNICAL REPORT POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA (AFCFTA) ON SELECTED OIC COUNTRIES Case of Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Guinea, Mozambique, Tunisia and Uganda Prepared by About ITFC The International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) is a member of the Islamic Contents Development Bank (IsDB) Group. It was established with the primary objective of advancing trade among OIC member countries, which would ultimately contribute to the overarching ACRONYMS 4 goal of improving the socioeconomic conditions of the people across the world. Commencing operations in January 2008, ITFC has provided more than US$51 billion of financing to OIC LIST OF FIGURES 5 member countries, making it the leading provider of trade solutions for these member LIST OF TABLES 5 countries’ needs. With a mission to become a catalyst for trade development for OIC member countries and beyond, the Corporation helps entities in member countries gain better access FOREWORD 6 to trade finance and provides them with the necessary trade-related capacity-building tools, which would enable them to successfully compete in the global market. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 About SESRIC 1. Introduction 10 2. Current Trade Patterns and Tariff Barriers 14 The Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries to Trade (SESRIC), a subsidiary organ of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), is operating in Ankara, Turkey since June 1978 as the main economic research arm, statistics centre 3. Model and Estimation 22 and training organ of the OIC. The Centre has been engaged with statistical data collection, 4. Output and Welfare Effects 26 collation and dissemination on and for the OIC member countries, undertaking the preparation of research papers, reports and studies on economic cooperation and development issues 5. Trade Effects 32 contained on the agenda of various OIC ministerial and other forums, organizing training 6. Factor Demand Effects 40 programs on subjects of immediate interest to the member countries, and putting out periodic and other publications in its areas of mandate for the benefit of the member countries. 7. Conclusion 44 Authored By REFERENCES 47 ANNEXES 48 This research study is authored by Kenan Bagci (SESRIC), Abdouramane Diallo (ITFC) and Anisse Terai (ITFC) Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Jean Bertrand Azapmo, Principal Adviser at African Union Commission (AUC), Silver Ojakol, Chief of Staff of the AfCFTA Secretariat, Amal Elbeshbishi, Economic Affairs Officer at United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), Cheikh Oumar Dia, Country Economist at the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and Esat Bakimli, Senior Researcher at SESRIC for their valuable inputs and suggestions to improve this publication. Disclaimer The findings, interpretations, views and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of ITFC, IsDB Group or SESRIC. While ITFC and SESRIC believe that the information provided is accurate, the information is provided on a strictly “as- is” basis, without assurance or representation of any kind. Rights And Permissions The exclusive rights for reproduction are for the authors and the material presented in this publication is copyrighted. The authors give the permission to view, copy, download, and print the material presented provided that these materials are not going to be reused, on whatsoever condition, for commercial purposes. For permission to reproduce or reprint any part of this publication, please send a request with complete information to [email protected] and research@ sesric.org, or to the authors. Acronyms List of Figures 1 AFCFTA African Continental Free Trade Agreement 1 FIGURE 1 Total Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (Period Averages, Current US$) 2 AFDB African Development Bank 2 FIGURE 2 Share of Trade in GDP (%) 3 AU African Union 3 FIGURE 3 Average Applied Tariff Rates (2010 vs 2018) 4 EU European Union 4 FIGURE 4 Estimated Impacts on Sectoral Output (%) 5 GCC Gulf Cooperation Council 5 FIGURE 5A Estimated Impacts on GDP (%) and Welfare (US$ Million) – Full Liberalization 6 GDP Gross Domestic Product 6 FIGURE 5B Estimated Impacts on GDP (%) and Welfare (US$ Million) – Partial Liberalization 7 GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project 7 FIGURE 6A Estimated Impacts on Total Exports and Imports (%) – Full Liberalization 8 GVC Global Value Chain 8 FIGURE 6B Estimated Impacts on Total Exports and Imports (%) – Partial Liberalization 9 IMF International Monetary Fund 9 FIGURE 7A Estimated Impacts on Bilateral Exports (US$ Million), Full Liberalization 10 ISDB Islamic Development Bank 10 FIGURE 7B Estimated Impacts on Bilateral Exports (US$ Million), Partial Liberalization 11 ITFC International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation 11 FIGURE 8 Estimated Impacts on Intra-African trade (%), Full Liberalization 12 LDCS Least Developed Countries 13 NTBS Non-Tariff Barriers 14 OIC Organization of Islamic Cooperation 15 PPP Purchasing Power Parity 16 RECS Regional Economic Communities 17 SDGS Sustainable Development Goals 18 SESRIC Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic List of Tables Countries 19 TFA Trade Facilitation Agreement 1 TABLE 1 Distribution of Exports by Partner Country/Region (2010-2019) 20 TRALAC Trade Law Centre 2 TABLE 2 Distribution of Imports by Partner Country/Region (2010-2019) 21 UAE United Arab Emirates 3 TABLE 3 Pre-CFTA Tariff Rates and Import Shares from Africa (GTAP Data) 22 UK United Kingdom 4 TABLE 4 Decomposition of Welfare Gains (US$ Million) 23 UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 5 TABLE 5 Change in Aggregate Imports (%, Market Price Weights) 24 UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa 6 TABLE 6 Change in Aggregate Exports (%, FOB Prices) 25 US United States 7 TABLE 7 Change in Bilateral Exports (US$ Million) 26 US$ United States Dollar 8 TABLE 8 Change in Labour Demand (%) 27 WDI World Development Indicator 9 TABLE 9 Change in Capital Demand (%) 4 5 Foreword The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable believe that facilitating trade among the African this domain. The 57 OIC member countries are Development defines international trade as OIC countries will substantially contribute to collectively part of a minimum of 19 regional “an engine for inclusive economic growth the development of intra-continental trade economic co-operation schemes across five and poverty reduction, [which] contributes to and enhancement of economic integration continents. Some are formed with other the promotion of sustainable development”. in the continent. Therefore, it is critical to OIC countries, while others include non-OIC Undoubtedly, reducing barriers to international support the efforts of the OIC countries in partners. All these arrangements are meant to trade and facilitating trade flows can be a driver Africa towards enhancing the awareness and expand markets, investment, output, income for achieving the Sustainable Development utilizing better the opportunities arising from and create employment. Goals (SDGs) in the member countries of the the AfCFTA. Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), This research is intended to help derive practical which are highly heterogeneous in terms of Greater economic integration and higher policy recommendations, which hopefully will their development levels. Most of the OIC trade linkages among African OIC countries inform decision makers in the OIC and African member countries in Africa lag behind the will also help to increase intra-OIC trade. trade community. Trade professional experts Eng. Hani Salem SONBOL non-African OIC countries as well as non-OIC At the 13th OIC Islamic Summit Conference from relevant international organizations, Chief Executive Officer,ITFC developing countries. Yet, we believe that held in in Istanbul in 2016, the OIC Heads of ITFC and SESRIC have devoted their time to the recent operationalization of the African States adopted the OIC Ten-year Programme the successful completion of this report. We Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) of Action (OIC-2025), which aims at achieving express our sincere appreciation and thanks provides an opportunity to bridge the gap 25% intra-OIC trade by 2025. The OIC-2025 to the African Union Trade and Industry by fostering regional integration and creating Programme of Action recognizes that “greater Department for shaping the country selection value chains. cooperation in the trade, investment and methodology in the early stages of the study finance sectors” is paramount to achieve this and the dedicated team at the UNECA Office Africa currently has a relatively lower objective. It acknowledges that progress in in Rabat. Our thanks and appreciation are also percentage of intra-regional trade with a rate intra-OIC trade cooperation has structurally extended to our expert team associated with of less than 20%, as compared with over 60% remained insufficient and puts an emphasis on the study at ITFC, IsDB and SESRIC. Without in Europe and 40% in America. However, the “quick operationalization” of trade facilitation their dedicated efforts, this research would United Nations Economic Commission for schemes to reach higher levels of cooperation not have been completed successfully. Africa (UNECA) predicts that intra-African and recommend promoting trade exchanges trade can level up from 18% to 25% within among the OIC member countries. The AfCFTA is the most important trade and a decade following the AfCFTA. There are 27 investment
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