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MSCI August QIR Preview Index Alert Research Slava Smolyaninov, [email protected] www.bcsgm.com Yulia Goldina, [email protected] Vasiliy Mordovtsev, [email protected] MSCI August QIR Preview 17 June 2020 Yandex – A Shoo-in for Inclusion MSCI will announce the results of its Quarterly Index Review on 12 August – Weights in MSCI Russia index, % effective rebalancing date 1 September. We expect Yandex local shares to New (pro- change, be added to the MSCI Russia Standard with a pro-forma weight of c5.9%. Current* forma) ppt GAZPROM 17.2 16.2 -1.0 . QIR results to be released 12 August, effective 1 September SBERBANK RUSSIA COM 16.6 15.6 -0.9 . Yandex has a high chance of inclusion in Russia Standard index LUKOIL HOLDING 16.6 15.6 -0.9 NORILSK NICKEL 9.1 8.6 -0.5 o Pro-forma weight of c5.9%; c$589mn inflows; c5days to cover NOVATEK 7.3 6.9 -0.4 . POLY’s NoS will be adjusted up by 0.33% YANDEX 5.9 5.9 TATNEFT COMMON 6.1 5.7 n/m . MSCI 10-40 – Yandex the new constituent ROSNEFT 3.2 3.0 n/m POLYUS 2.6 2.4 n/m MSCI August QIR – Russia benchmark to widen with YNDX MAGNIT 2.3 2.2 n/m MSCI will announce the results of its August 2020 Quarterly Index Review POLYMETAL INTL 2.2 2.1 n/m X5 RETAIL GROUP 2.1 2.0 n/m (QIR) on 12 August with the effective rebalancing date on 1 September. We MOBILE TELESYS 2.2 2.0 n/m do not expect any deletions during this review. As such, given Yandex’s SURGUTNEFTEGAZ COMN 2.1 2.0 n/m inclusion is highly likely, we expect MSCI Russia’s weight to widen in MSCI EM SURGUTNEFTEGAZ PREF 1.8 1.7 n/m SEVERSTAL 1.4 1.3 n/m Index from the current 3.4% (as of yesterday’s close) to 3.6% (pro-forma). INTER RAO UES 1.4 1.3 n/m ALROSA 1.2 1.1 n/m Yandex – a shoo-in for inclusion with a pro-forma weight of c5.9% NOVOLIPETSK STEEL 1.2 1.1 n/m The last business day of June is the relevant cutoff date for data used for MOSCOW EXCHANGE 1.2 1.1 n/m PHOSAGRO GDR 0.9 0.9 n/m liquidity calculations for the August QIR. Nevertheless, we see a very high VTB BANK 0.9 0.8 n/m chance that the local line of Yandex will be added to the Russia Standard MAGNITOGORSK IRON 0.7 0.6 n/m Index. If added today, the stock would have a significant, pro-forma weight of *as of close 16 June 2020 Source: MSCI, BCS GM c5.9% in the Russia Standard Index and c0.21% in MSCI EM, leading to inflows Potential Flows from ETS from passive funds of c$589mn (3M ADTV $118mn) – almost 5 days to cover Expected Days to cover Moscow and US lines combined. Such a sizable weight in the Parent index is Flows, $mn (Mos + DRs), x explained by the significant market capitalization of Yandex. YANDEX 589 5 MAGNITOGORSK IRON (0.6) 0.1 POLY – Small increase in NoS; Neutral VTB BANK (0.9) 0.0 PHOSAGRO (0.9) 0.1 We also expect MSCI to increase the total number of shares (NoS) for MOSCOW EXCHANGE (1.1) 0.1 Polymetal by 0.33% (or 1.56mn shares) to 471,791,037 ordinary shares. NOVOLIPETSK STEEL (1.2) 0.1 Nevertheless, we do not expect any positive impact on the stock, as all ALROSA (1.2) 0.0 INTER RAO UES (1.3) 0.0 passive money will be dragged into Yandex. SEVERSTAL (1.3) 0.1 POLYMETAL INTL (1.5) 0.0 MSCI Russia 10-40 – Yandex in SURGUTNEFTEGAZ PREF (1.7) 0.1 As Yandex local shares are likely to be included into MSCI Russia Standard, X5 RETAIL GROUP (2.0) 0.1 SURGUTNEFTEGAZ COMN (2.1) 0.0 the stock is also to be added into the MSCI 10-40 with an approximate weight MOBILE TELE SYSTEM (2.1) 0.0 slightly above 4.5%. Meanwhile, we see no changes in the Top 4 in the MSCI MAGNIT (2.2) 0.0 Russia 10/40 Index for now, unless NVTK outperforms GMKN by 26% in the POLYUS (2.5) 0.1 ROSNEFT (3.1) 0.0 next 2 months. Nevertheless, we do not expect any large flows due to the TATNEFT COMMON (5.9) 0.1 lack of passive money invested in the index. Changes will become effective 1 NOVATEK (7.1) 0.1 NORILSK NICKEL (8.9) 0.1 September (as of close 31 August), the same day as the Parent Index. LUKOIL HOLDING (16.1) 0.1 SBERBANK RUSSIA COM (16.1) 0.1 GAZPROM (16.7) 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, BCS GM Disclaimer: This research report, prepared by the Research Department of BrokerCreditService Ltd [Registered Name: BrokerCreditService Ltd, Registered Number: 1025402459334, Registered Office: 37 Sovetskaya str., Novosibirsk 630099, Russia, BrokerCreditService Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Russia and holds FFMS licenses No. 154-04434-100000 of 10.01.2001 fo r brokerage services, No. 154-04449-010000 of 10.01.2001 for dealing on own account, No. 154-04462-001000 of 10.01.2001 for managing securities portfolios and No. 154-12397 -000100 of 23.07.2009 for safekeeping and administration of financial instruments], is ‘non independent research’ and is for information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion is intended to be or should be construed as an offer, a recommendation or an invitation to make an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. No representation or warranty (including future performance), expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy and reliability. This research constitutes neither investment, legal, tax advice nor other advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, risk appetite and financial situation of anyone who may receive this report and the latter shall not rely on it in making an investment or other decision. Investors should seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any financial instrument and suitability of the financial instruments or strategy discussed in this report. In accordance with US SEC Regulation AC, important US regulatory disclosures and analyst certifications can be found on the last page of this report. © 2020 BrokerCreditService Ltd. All rights protected and reserved. Research Department +7 (495) 785 5336 Head of Research Deputy Head of Research, Equity Deputy Head of Research, FI Head of Production Kirill Chuyko Slava Smolyaninov Maria Radchenko Mark S Bradford [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +7 (495) 213 15 26 +7 (495) 213 15 02 +7 (495) 213 15 35 +7 (495) 785 53 36 (ext. 14681) Chief Economist Market Analysis Fixed Income Head of Russian Product Vladimir Tikhomirov, PhD Mark S Bradford Maria Radchenko Olga Sibiricheva [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +7 (495) 785 53 36 (ext. 14911) +7 (495) 785 53 36 (ext. 14681) +7 (495) 213 15 35 +7 (495) 785 53 36 (ext. 14618) Equity Strategy Metals & Mining Yuri Golban Production Team Slava Smolyaninov Kirill Chuyko [email protected] Nikolay Porokhov [email protected] [email protected] +7 (495) 213 15 06 [email protected] +7 (495) 213 15 02 +7 (495) 213 15 26 Seb Barendt Yakov Yakovlev Kirill Chuyko Oleg Petropavlovskiy [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +7 (495) 213 15 94 Elena Kosovskaya +7 (495) 213 15 26 +7 (495) 213 15 03 [email protected] Yulia Goldina Artem Bagdasaryan Anastasia Boyko Olga Dontsova [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +7 (495) 213 15 07 +7 (495) 213 15 08 +7 495 785 53 36 (ext. 18546) Anton Ostroukhov Vasiliy Mordovtsev [email protected] Retail & Utilities Global Equity Markets [email protected] Tatiana Kurnosenko Dmitriy Skryabin Alexey Gil +7 (495) 213 15 86 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Oil & Gas +7 (495) 213 15 09 +7 495 785 53 36 (ext. 17614) Svetlana Shcheglova [email protected] Kirill Tachennikov Maria Lukina [email protected] [email protected] +7 (495) 213 15 04 +7 (495) 213 15 36 Vasiliy Mordovtsev [email protected] Industrials & Real Estate & Fertilizers Business Administrator Data Specialists +7 (495) 213 15 86 Anastasia Egazaryan Anna Zhukova Vasiliy Mordovtsev [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Financial Services +7 (495) 213 15 39 +7 (495) 785 53 36 (ext. 14803) +7 (495) 213 15 86 Elena Tsareva Mikhail Skorina [email protected] TMT [email protected] +7 (495) 213 15 37 Maria Sukhanova +7 (495) 785 53 36 (ext. 12084) Veronika Yan [email protected] [email protected] +7 (495) 213 15 05 +7 (495) 785 53 36 (ext. 10475) Institutional Sales & Trading (Moscow) +7 (495) 785 5336 (ext. 15048) Institutional Sales & Trading (London) +44 (207) 065 2023 Institutional Sales (New York) +1 (212) 421 8567 Private Client Service +7 (495) 785 5336 (ext. 15440) Disclaimer – This report is produced and distributed by BrokerCreditService Ltd. 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