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Cesifo Working Paper No. 7803
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Ryan, John Working Paper The Brexit Conundrum Worsens the UK's Relationship with the European Union CESifo Working Paper, No. 7803 Provided in Cooperation with: Ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Suggested Citation: Ryan, John (2019) : The Brexit Conundrum Worsens the UK's Relationship with the European Union, CESifo Working Paper, No. 7803, Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/207194 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu 7803 2019 August 2019 The Brexit Conundrum Worsens the UK’s Relationship with the European Union John T. -
EU Renegotiation: Fighting for a Flexible Union How to Renegotiate the Terms of the UK’S Membership of the EU
EU Renegotiation: Fighting for a Flexible Union How to renegotiate the terms of the UK’s Membership of the EU (Quotation in title taken from President Glyn Gaskarth September 2013 ii © Civitas 2013 55 Tufton Street London SW1P 3QL Civitas is a registered charity (no. 1085494) and a company limited by guarantee, registered in England and Wales (no. 04023541) email: [email protected] Independence: Civitas: Institute for the Study of Civil Society is a registered educational charity (No. 1085494) and a company limited by guarantee (No. 04023541). Civitas is financed from a variety of private sources to avoid over-reliance on any single or small group of donors. All the Institute’s publications seek to further its objective of promoting the advancement of learning. The views expressed are those of the authors, not of the Institute. i Contents Acknowledgements ii Foreword, David Green iii Executive Summary iv Background 1 Introduction 3 Chapter One – Trade 9 Chapter Two – City Regulation 18 Chapter Three – Options for Britain 26 Chapter Four – Common Fisheries Policy 42 Chapter Five – National Borders and Immigration 49 Chapter Six – Foreign & Security Policy 58 Chapter Seven – European Arrest Warrant (EAW) 68 Conclusion 80 Bibliography 81 ii Acknowledgements I would like to thank Tamara Chehayeb Makarem and Susan Gaskarth for their support during the compilation of this paper and Dr David Green and Jonathan Lindsell of Civitas for their comments on the text. iii Foreword Our main aim should be the full return of our powers of self-government, but that can’t happen before the referendum promised for 2017. -
OPENING PANDORA's BOX David Cameron's Referendum Gamble On
OPENING PANDORA’S BOX David Cameron’s Referendum Gamble on EU Membership Credit: The Economist. By Christina Hull Yale University Department of Political Science Adviser: Jolyon Howorth April 21, 2014 Abstract This essay examines the driving factors behind UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s decision to call a referendum if the Conservative Party is re-elected in 2015. It addresses the persistence of Euroskepticism in the United Kingdom and the tendency of Euroskeptics to generate intra-party conflict that often has dire consequences for Prime Ministers. Through an analysis of the relative impact of political strategy, the power of the media, and British public opinion, the essay argues that addressing party management and electoral concerns has been the primary influence on David Cameron’s decision and contends that Cameron has unwittingly unleashed a Pandora’s box that could pave the way for a British exit from the European Union. Acknowledgments First, I would like to thank the Bates Summer Research Fellowship, without which I would not have had the opportunity to complete my research in London. To Professor Peter Swenson and the members of The Senior Colloquium, Gabe Botelho, Josh Kalla, Gabe Levine, Mary Shi, and Joel Sircus, who provided excellent advice and criticism. To Professor David Cameron, without whom I never would have discovered my interest in European politics. To David Fayngor, who flew halfway across the world to keep me company during my summer research. To my mom for her unwavering support and my dad for his careful proofreading. And finally, to my adviser Professor Jolyon Howorth, who worked with me on this project for over a year and a half. -
Liberal Guide to Brexit
Report 04/2016 Where next? A liberal, free-market guide to Brexit Raoul Ruparel, Stephen Booth, Vincenzo Scarpetta About the Authors Raoul Ruparel Open Europe is a non-partisan and independent policy Co-Director think tank, committed to crafting and putting into action solutions to the European Union’s most pressing challenges. Open Europe’s Co-Director, Raoul is also a contributing We are committed to European Union reform. Our vision author for Forbes, writing on European economics for a slimmed-down, outward looking and dynamic EU rests and politics, and a member of the British Chamber of on four principles: Commerce Economic Advisory Group. • Boost jobs and growth. Enable and encourage free trade – internally and globally. Regulate business less, but better. • Embrace democracy. Be transparent and accountable to citizens, recognising the crucial Stephen Booth role of national parliaments. Cut the cost of Co-Director Brussels. • Focus on the big questions. Do not interfere in Stephen has led Open Europe research projects on areas that could be equally well handled at the EU regulation, justice and home affairs and the UK’s national or local level. trade with the EU. Stephen also directed Open Europe’s • Be flexible. Allow powers to flow back to the policy work on EU migration and free movement, which member states, and let some countries integrate featured prominently in the Prime Minister’s recent more than others. immigration speech. Disclaimer Open Europe will remain neutral in the EU Referendum campaign, confining ourselves to commenting as Vincenzo Scarpetta accurately as we can on the arguments and facts Policy Analyst advanced on both sides of the debate. -
IEA Brexit Prize: the Plan to Leave the European Union by 2020 by Daniel
IEA Brexit Prize: The plan to leave the European Union by 2020 by Daniel. C. Pycock FINALIST: THE BREXIT PRIZE 2014 IEA BREXIT PRIZE 3 3 Executive Summary 3 A Rebuttal to Targeting Exchange Rates with Monetary Policy I – THE CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS FOR LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION 6 V – FISCAL POLICY: SPENDING PRIORITIES The Constitutional Processes of Leaving the AND TAX REFORMS 28 European Union On the repatriation of, and necessary reforms to, The articles of the proposed “Treaty of London” Value Added Tax 2017 On the Continuation of Current Corporation Tax The impact of BREXIT on the United Trends, and Reforms to Individual Taxation Kingdom’s Trade Position On The Desirable Restructuring of Income Tax The European Union, Unemployment, and Rates: The History of the Laffer Curve Trading Position post-withdrawal On Government Spending and the Need to Improve GAAP use in Cost Calculations II – THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON THE UNITED KINGDOM’S TRADE POSITION 10 Suggestions for savings to be made in Defence, Health, Welfare, and Overall Spending Trends in UK Trade with the EU and the Commonwealth, and their shares of Global VI.I – ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 34 GDP The Mismatch of Policy with Hypothesis: Climate The UK and the Commonwealth: The Return of Change, Energy and the Environment an Imperial Trading Zone? The Unintended Consequences of the European The Trends of Trading: The UK’s Future Union’s Environmental Policies. Exports & Those of Trading Organisations Fracking, Fossil Fuels, and Feasibility: How to Unemployment in the European Union, -
Exploding the Myths of Leaving the Customs Union
Exploding the myths of leaving the Customs Union A joint publication from the European Research Group and Global Britain Fact – NOT Friction Exploding the myths of leaving the Customs Union A joint publication from the European Research Group and Global Britain C O N T E N T S Foreword 3 Executive Summary 4 Introduction 6 Myths surrounding a UK-EU free trade deal 9 Myths surrounding ‘No Deal’ – or trading on WTO terms 20 About the publishers 23 20th November 2018 Cover picture: The Port of Southampton, Diego Torres 2 FOREWORD By Simon Boyd FinstD, Managing Director of Reid Steel It is often said that when the UK leaves the EU Single Market and its Customs Union that it will be far harder to trade whether it's import or export – that frictionless trade will become difficult with delays, obstacles and costs. From my own experience I can say the reverse is true. In my experience trading with our European friends is infinitely more difficult than it is to trade with other countries outside the EU. It has, for instance, been easier for us to export to Mongolia than to France, despite the fact we were founded there in 1919. The reasons for this are obvious, the EU is bureaucratic by its very nature and its Customs Union is a fortress designed to protect producers inside it rather than encourage open free trade where everyone can benefit. But we are not and never have been protected by this protectionist regime. Instead we have seen the steady ebb of manufacturing move to other areas of the EU – and even to areas beyond – as a result of our membership. -
A Global Maritime Power
A Global Maritime Power Building a Better Future For Post-Brexit Britain Nusrat Ghani MP, Benjamin Barnard, Dominic Walsh, William Nicolle A Global Maritime Power Building a Better Future For Post-Brexit Britain Nusrat Ghani MP, Benjamin Barnard, Dominic Walsh, William Nicolle Policy Exchange is the UK’s leading think tank. We are an independent, non-partisan educational charity whose mission is to develop and promote new policy ideas that will deliver better public services, a stronger society and a more dynamic economy. Policy Exchange is committed to an evidence-based approach to policy development and retains copyright and full editorial control over all its written research. We work in partnership with academics and other experts and commission major studies involving thorough empirical research of alternative policy outcomes. We believe that the policy experience of other countries offers important lessons for government in the UK. We also believe that government has much to learn from business and the voluntary sector. Registered charity no: 1096300. Trustees Diana Berry, Alexander Downer, Pamela Dow, Andrew Feldman, David Harding, Patricia Hodgson, Greta Jones, Edward Lee, Charlotte Metcalf, David Ord, Roger Orf, Andrew Roberts, George Robinson, Robert Rosenkranz, William Salomon, Peter Wall, Simon Wolfson, Nigel Wright. A Global Maritime Power About the Author Nusrat Ghani MP is the Conservative MP for Wealden and a Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange. She previously served in the Department of Transport as Minister for Maritime between January 2018 and February 2020, during which time she became the first female Muslim Minister to speak from the House of Commons despatch box. -
Towards a New Pact for Europe
TOWARDS A NEW PACT FOR EUROPE The New Pact for Europe project is supported by a large transnational consortium including the King Baudouin Foundation, Bertelsmann Stiftung, Allianz Kulturstiftung, BMW Foundation, Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, European Cultural Foundation, European Policy Centre, “la Caixa” Foundation, Network of European Foundations, Open Estonia Foundation, Open Society Initiative for Europe, Stiftung Mercator and Svenska Kultur Fonden Promoting the European Debate [email protected] www.newpactforeurope.eu TOWARDS A NEW PACT FOR EUROPE SECOND REPORT October 2014 NEW PACT FOR EUROPE: SECOND REPORT TOWARDS A NEW PACT FOR EUROPE A publication of the King Baudouin Foundation, the Bertelsmann Stiftung and the European Policy Centre (EPC) RAPPORTEUR Janis A. Emmanouilidis, European Policy Centre (EPC) EDITING Jacki Davis, Meade Davis Communication COORDINATION Gerrit Rauws, Director KING BAUDOUIN FOUNDATION Stefan Schäfers, European Programme Advisor Anneke Denecker, Assistant COORDINATION Joachim Fritz-Vannahme, Director BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Andrej Stuchlik, Project Manager GRAPHIC DESIGN Margarida Oliveira, Forma Design ILLUSTRATION Inês do Carmo This publication can be downloaded free of charge from www.kbs-frb.be, www.epc.eu and www.newpactforeurope.eu This publication is available free of charge: order online from www.kbs-frb.be, by e-mail sent to [email protected] or by calling or faxing the King Baudouin Foundation’s Contact Centre T +32 70 233 728, F +32 70 233 727 Legal deposit: D/2893/2014/35 ORDER NUMBER: -
An Open Europe in a Multipolar World: Lessons from the Portuguese Experience European Democracy in Action
Álvaro de VASCONCELOS Álvaro de Vasconcelos has been the di- rector of the Institute of Security Studies of the European Union in Paris since May 2007. An Open Europe in a Multipolar World: Lessons from the Portuguese Experience European Democracy in Action Álvaro de VASCONCELOS An Open Europe in a Multipolar World: Lessons from the Portuguese Experience This paper, written on the occasion of the Portuguese Presidency, discus- ses the options available to the Union to establish itself as a major actor on the world scene. Based on an analysis of twenty years of EU mem- bership, it describes how international issues fit with Portuguese thinking about Europe. In the light of the current re-emergence of multi-polarity, it examines ways for the Union to strengthen multilateralism, the strategic cornerstone of EU foreign policy, and discusses the key linkage between internal and external policy issues. www.notre-europe.eu e-mail : [email protected] Studies & 60 Research Studies & 60 An Open Europe in a Multipolar World: Research Lessons from the Portuguese Experience BY ÁLVARO DE VASCONCELOS ÁLVARO DE VASCONCELOS Born in Porto, Portugal, in 1944, he headed the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (IEEI), of which he is a co-founder, from 1981 Notre Europe to 2007. He has been the director of the Institute of Security Studies of the European Union in Paris since May 2007. Over the past ten years, he has been much involved in the Notre Europe is an independent think tank devoted to European integration. Under coordination of EuroMeSCo, the 50- the guidance of Jacques Delors, who created Notre Europe in 1996, the association member strong Euro-Mediterranean aims to “think a united Europe.” network of foreign and security policy research centres which Our ambition is to contribute to the current public debate by producing analyses constitutes a confidence-building and pertinent policy proposals that strive for a closer union of the peoples of measure and provider of expertise Europe. -
Brexit: Theresa May's Red Lines Get Tangled up in Her Red Tape. A
Insight Brexit: Theresa May’s Red Lines Get Tangled up in Her Red Tape. A Commentary on the White Paper Polly Ruth Polak* ABSTRACT: The 29 March 2017 is now set to become the historical day Art. 50 TEU was triggered for the first time ever. Equally, unprecedented negotiations, in which the United Kingdom and the Eu- ropean Union will settle their divorce, will follow. With the aim of proving that the UK Government has the necessary negotiating strategy, it recently published a White Paper on its exit from and new partnership with the EU. Despite the promises, this Paper is far from providing certainty and clarity. However, it is also a step away from a previous superficial and simplistic approach to Brexit. In this Insight, I explain why the White Paper is riddled with contradictions and why, nonetheless, this confusing and vague exposition of what the UK will be seeking to achieve from its withdrawal is a welcome though disguised acknowledgment of the complexities that Brexit will entail. KEYWORDS: Brexit – White Paper – hard and soft – Art. 50 TEU – Theresa May – negotiations. I. Introduction After the notification of the intention of the UK to exit the EU, it would surely be interesting to know what the United Kingdom’s Brexit negotiating strategy is, as well as the expected outcome. Particularly as, so far, the lack of acknowledging the conse- quences surrounding the whole ordeal or “political chutzpah” has been painfully obvious.1 An immensely complex and uncharted procedure, Brexit has been over- simplified since the very beginning. Clear examples are the simplicity of the ballot question summarized in an “in or out” vote2 or the internal constitutional battle for British sovereignty formulated in terms of “Parliament v Government”.3 * Phd Researcher, Salamanca University, [email protected]. -
The Reluctant European
SPECIAL REPORT BRITAIN AND EUROPE October 17th 2015 The reluctant European 20151017_SRBRITEU.indd 1 05/10/2015 16:26 SPECIAL REPORT BRITAIN AND EUROPE The reluctant European Though Britain has always been rather half-hearted about the European Union, its membership has been beneficial for all concerned, argues John Peet. It should stay in the club THE QUESTION THAT will be put to British voters, probably in the au- CONTENTS tumn of 2016, sounds straightforward: “Should the United Kingdom re- main a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?” 4 How referendums can go (The final clause was added last month at the insistence of the Electoral wrong Commission, which decided the question might look biased without it.) Herding cats When David Cameron, Britain’s Conservative prime minister, first pro- 5 Euroscepticism and its roots posed a referendum in early 2013, he was hoping that the answer would The open sea ACKNOWLEDGMENTS also be straightforward. Once he had successfully renegotiated some of Britain’s membership terms, the electorate would duly endorse him by 6 Britain’s clout in Brussels Besides those mentioned in the text, Not what it was the author would like to thank the voting to stay in. following for their help: Andy But referendums are by theirnature chancy affairs, as a string ofpre- 7 Costs and benefits Bagnall, Matthew Baldwin, Steven vious European examples have shown (see box later in this article). Mr Common market economics Blockmans, Stephen Booth, Hugo Cameron is well aware that the September 2014 referendum on Scottish Brady, Helen Campbell, Martin 9 The euro zone Donnelly, Monique Ebell, Matthew independence, an issue about which he said he felt far more strongly Elliott, Jonathan Faull, Maurice than he does about the EU, became a closer-run thing than expected. -
This Spectred Isle James Bond, Alan Partridge, and Englishness
This SPECTREd Isle James Bond, Alan Partridge, and Englishness GILLIAN GROSZEWSKI Like the Aston Martin car he drives and the Savile Row tailors he frequents, James Bond is an English cultural icon. ndeed, in !"#!, $aniel %raig, as Bond, was the natural choice to &act' as the securit( escort for )er Majest(, the +ueen, as she made her wa( to the o,ening ceremon( of the -l(mpic .ames in Lon/ don, itself a celebration of all things English. Although ap,roximating the iconic, Steve %oogan2s 3ctional character, Alan 4artridge, does not ,ossess the same cul/ tural cachet as 5leming’s international man of m(ster(. A self/,rofessed Bond su,er/fan, 4artridge attempts, on a regular basis, to achieve the im,ossible: to become an icon. 7here Bond and brand become inseparable due to their so,h/ isticated interdependence, 4artridge desperatel( seeks cor,orate ,artnershi, in an attempt to increase his ,ersonal wealth and social ,ro3le. )owever, while 4artridge ma( ap,ear, at 3rst sight, a ,ale imitation of 5leming’s iconic sleuth, both characters ,ossess a similarl( acute awareness of what it means to be Eng/ lish. %hristine Berberich has written of Bond that &behind the suave secret agent lurks a character 0oth at ease and at odds with his time' 8!"#!, #9:. Looking be/ hind the ,reoccu,ation of Alan 4artridge with all things Bond highlights the changing conce,t of what it means to be English in contem,orar( Britain. Like Bond, 4artridge frequentl( 3nds himself to 0e at odds with those that surround him ; not least due to his encyclo,aedic knowledge of the Bond franchise ; but Gillian Groszewski +e12hes Englis3 1+ -higwell S2hool.