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CRITICAL SCIENTIFIC and TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES NEEDED for SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT © 2019 Institute for Transformative Technologies (ITT)

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CRITICAL SCIENTIFIC and TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES NEEDED for SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT © 2019 Institute for Transformative Technologies (ITT) CRITICAL SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES NEEDED FOR SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT © 2019 Institute for Transformative Technologies (ITT). All Rights Reserved. Rights and permissions This work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, without permission, with attribution. Attribution Please cite this work as follows: “Institute for Transformative Technologies (ITT), 2019. 50 Breakthroughs: Critical Scientific and Technological Advances Needed for Sustainable Global Development.” For more information www.50breakthroughs.org | www.transformativetechnologies.org This is a section of the 50 Breakthroughs report The full report is available at www.50breakthroughs.org CONTENTS OVERVIEW 1 OVERVIEW 148 EDUCATION 374 GENDER EQUITY 412 HUMAN RIGHTS 464 PHYSICAL WATER 16 IRRIGATION 163 SCARCITY SOIL HEALTH AND 191 WATER QUALITY 58 NUTRITION ECONOMIC WATER 114 BIOTIC STRESSES 220 SCARCITY POST-HARVEST 235 HANDLING & STORAGE EXTENSION SERVICES 257 LIVESTOCK 270 FISHERIES & 304 AQUACULTURE AGRICULTURAL 319 SUSTAINABILITY OVERVIEW 489 DIGITAL INCLUSION 735 OVERVIEW 775 RESILIENCE TO 865 EMERGING 943 GLOBAL CHANGE TECHNOLOGIES HIV/AIDS 499 ACCESS TO 786 ELECTRICITY PULMONARY 526 TUBERCULOSIS CLEAN COOKING 826 MALARIA 554 MATERNAL AND 578 NEONATAL HEALTH PNEUMONIA AND 593 LOWER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS DIARRHEAL DISEASES 621 NON-COMMUNICABLE 647 DISEASES NUTRITIONAL 669 DEFICIENCIES DIAGNOSTICS 687 HEALTHCARE 715 DELIVERY RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL CHANGE RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL CHANGE 865 RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL CHANGE Introduction Core Facts Key Challenges Breakthroughs INTRODUCTION Starting from prehistory, people Second-order environmental consequences that pose major threats to food security include more have been altering our environment frequent and severe droughts and floods, soil in the interest of human welfare. loss due to erosion, crop yield reductions due to warmer temperatures, irrigation constraints due to Manipulating nature has been integral to broad groundwater depletion, and long- term constraints human development. These direct (or first-order) on plant nutrient sources. environmental changes have been the basis of fundamental advances, such as the Agricultural Major health threats include water pollution that and Industrial revolutions. However, as the scale leads to diarrheal diseases, household air pollution of human enterprise increases relative to natural due to indoor burning of solid fuels, outdoor air processes, a growing number of indirect (or second- pollution, environmental toxins, and altered disease order) environmental impacts are occurring. vectors and extreme weather events attributed to Activities that were previously beneficial are now climate change. affecting human welfare negatively. Threats of displacement are expected for These second-order environmental impacts, with coastal populations affected by rising sea level, planetary-scale effects, are collectively known as desertification leading to abandoned farmland due global change. There are a number of pathways to untenably low agricultural yields, infrastructure through which global change may significantly failure due to permafrost thawing and agricultural impact human development, with complex chains yield limits due to irrigation constraints. Threats of of cause and effect. Here we seek to understand conflict involve control of increasingly limited natural the relation between human welfare and global resources, including global markets for fossil fuels environmental change. Furthermore, we seek and mineral ores, as well as local needs such as technological opportunities to increase the resilience water and grazing land. of societies to such change. Our focus is on the impact of first-order We first identify seven broad categories that environmental changes and second-order comprehensively describe the first-order consequences on low income human populations, environmental changes caused by human actions. within the year 2050 time horizon, meaning roughly Ranging in nature from biotic changes related to the next human generation. We fully recognize that living organisms, to geochemical changes of the there are a number of additional major threats that physical planet, these direct environmental changes these populations will face beyond 2050, and that include altered species and population distributions, environmental change is taking a tremendous toll on lower ecosystem complexity (smaller number non-human forms of life on the planet; those aspects and variety of species), land cover change, and go beyond the scope of this study. the alteration of carbon, water, nitrogen and other geochemical cycles. Furthermore, we focus only on those actions that can primarily be taken in developing countries. We We further establish the link between these recognize that in many cases (such as with regards first-order changes and their second-order to climate change), the actions of industrialized consequences, including pollution, deforestation, countries have caused much of the damage suffered rising sea levels, groundwater depletion and soil in developing countries. However, we believe erosion among others. These indirect consequences that other studies (for example, IPCC reports) are lead to human development challenges in terms of already addressing actions that must be taken by food security, health, displacement and conflict. industrialized countries to mitigate such changes. 866 RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL CHANGE Introduction Core Facts Key Challenges Breakthroughs Identifying solutions to development challenges Breakthrough 16. Alternative meat production arising from global change is especially problematic, system that is affordable, desirable and because the changes are precisely due to prior environmentally sustainable human efforts towards development. Furthermore, many non-technological hurdles exist that may Breakthrough 17. New seed varieties that are constrain successful mitigation or adaptation to tolerant to drought, heat, salinity and/or other environmental change. These include the lack of: emerging environmental stresses (ideally using effective regulatory and enforcement mechanisms, cis-genetic modification) adequate economic means to commit to solutions, and economic incentives among key decision- Breakthrough 19. Affordable healthy homes that makers and stakeholders. are resilient to extreme weather events Focusing on scientific and technological solutions, Breakthrough 43. A standardized, solar mini-grid many of the breakthroughs identified in other system that makes it simpler, cheaper and faster chapters are equally relevant to issues of resilience to set up and operate mini-grids to environmental change. Examples of such relevant breakthroughs include soil nutrient analysis and Breakthrough 46. Advanced biomass cookstoves sustainable utilization of groundwater resources, that are desirable, affordable, robust and very as highlighted in our Food Security and Agriculture clean chapter. Beyond these, we identify 13 technological breakthroughs that could address some of the Breakthrough 47. Novel ways of converting challenges resulting from environmental change. household or village waste products into clean cooking fuel or electricity Breakthrough 1. A low-cost system for precision application of agricultural inputs, ideally Breakthrough 48. A mechanism to remove combining water and fertilizer particulate emission from old trucks and other heavy-duty vehicles Breakthrough 2. A very low-cost scalable technique for desalinating brackish water Breakthrough 49. Small-scale waste incinerators with efficient combustion and clean emissions Breakthrough 3. Network of low-cost distributed monitoring sensors to measure and map air and water quality Breakthrough 4. Sustainable, affordable, household-level fecal waste management system Breakthrough 5. Medium to large-scale sewage treatment process with recovery of water (and ideally nutrients and energy) By now, there is ample evidence to demonstrate that the effects of global climate change are already being felt. As recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and others point out, these effects will continue to worsen, with vulnerable populations in low-income countries bearing the brunt of phenomena like extreme weather events, increased temperatures, rising sea levels, and shifting rainfall patterns. As bad as the impact of climate change on these populations is, it is only part of a larger problem of environmental degradation. In many developing regions, the combination of broad poverty, rapid economic growth in some populations segments and the lack of political will and appropriate regulation has led to significant environmental damage: outdoor air is polluted because of vehicle exhaust, indoor air is polluted due to poor cooking methods and ventilation, water supplies are contaminated by fecal pathogens, urban slums accumulate mountains of trash, and industry often feels unencumbered to pollute the air, water and land with toxins. 867 RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL CHANGE Introduction Core Facts Key Challenges Breakthroughs CORE FACTS AND ANALYSIS Although first-order environmental changes bring We propose a new analytical framework huge benefits to humans, they also have indirect (Exhibit 1), that links human actions to first- or second-order consequences that pose risks and order environmental changes, to second-order challenges to human wellbeing in the longer term. environmental consequences, and ultimately to Human-caused first-order environmental changes human development impacts. These linkages
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