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Public Investment Bank PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK PublicInvest Research Sector Note Thursday, March 28, 2013 KDN PP17686/03/2013(032117) Property Outperform FBM PROPERTY INDEX Iskandar Malaysia… House Of Brick? (m) Volume (m) KLPRP Index 200 1,400 One sold out project after another. Recent land deal flows and brisk sales of 1,200 property launches reignited investors’ interest on Iskandar Malaysia. While we 150 1,000 share the same optimism, we try to look at the sustainability of the demand and 800 hence, determine if the run in the property counters with exposure in Iskandar 100 600 Malaysia is warranted. 400 50 200 One word, Singapore. The key drivers of recent interests were attributed to: 0 0 1) Completion of attractions such as Legoland, Johor Premium Outlet, Puteri Mar-12 May-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Harbor Family Indoor Theme Park, universities and other upcoming big profile projects such as Pinewood Studios, etc. 2) Warmer Malaysia-Singapore SECTOR PERFORMANCE government tie that leads to possible collaboration, especially high-impact infrastructure projects such high-speed rail linking KL-Singapore, MRT 1M 3M 6M connectivity (JB-Singapore Rapit Transit System, RTS) and highway projects Absolute Returns +8.11 +12.27 +15.76 3) Land deals that saw well-established names from Singapore such as Relative Returns +6.35 +13.39 +13.69 Temasek (Afinity Medini, GDV RM3bn), CapitaLand (Danga Bay, GDV RM8.1bn), Ascendas Land (Gerbang Nusajaya, GDV RM3.7bn), etc. RECOMMENDATION TABLE Ultimately, we believe the key is still tapping the demand from Singapore. Current Target Upside Sustainability of demand. With a bulk of the purchasers consisting of Call (RM) (RM) (%) Singaporeans or Malaysians working in Singapore, we look at the sales trend of property both in Singapore and Johor. Notwithstanding Iskandar Malaysia’s UEM Land 2.68 2.80 5 N SP Setia 3.30 4.40 33 OP potential, we are of the view the sheer size of Iskandar Malaysia (measuring E&O 1.58 2.20 39 OP 2,217 sqm or three times the size of Singapore) would mean demand should MK Land 0.315 0.80 154 OP normalize despite the recent brisk sales. We note that currently for properties above RM500k per unit, Johor is selling c.1000 units (from 300 units in 2008) as compared to 18,000 units in Selangor and 10,000 in Kuala Lumpur. Recent cooling measures in Singapore, in our view sparked the interest on Iskandar Malaysia and based on our estimate, the demand in Iskandar might take longer than expected to come near the sales in KL/Selangor. The hotspots to watch. For hotspots, we like Nusajaya (UEM Land) and Medini (E&O) for being the location for most of the catalytic projects, Danga Bay for having the longest coastline, Leisure Farm for its well-designed master plan with equestrian, golf courses and multi–tiered security, among others in the short run but the rise of the these hotspots should ripple to other areas in the long run. After the recent price run in UEM Land, we downgrade UEM Land Tan Siang Hing from Overweight to Neutral but still like SP Setia and E&O for exposure in T 603 2031 3011 Johor. F 603 2272 3704 E [email protected] FINANCIAL SUMMARY Price EPS Growth Dividend (RM) @ Mkt Cap EPS (sen) (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Yield (%) Company 27 Mar (RMm) 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F UEM Land 2.68 11,603.4 11.0 11.4 15.8 3.6 24.3 23.5 1.9 1.8 8.9 8.4 1.1 1.1 SP Setia 3.30 8,113.8 21.6 30.6 16.3 41.7 15.2 7.9 1.8 1.7 11.0 11.7 3.9 5.6 E&O 1.58 1,747.8 11.4 12.5 4.4 9.5 14.2 13.0 1.3 1.2 9.1 9.2 3.8 4.1 MK Land 0.315 379.4 2.9 4.6 45.0 56.4 11.8 7.6 0.4 0.3 3.1 4.5 - - Source: PublicInvest Research estimates 1 Important disclaimer is provided at the end of this report.| PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Page 1 of 11 PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Launched in 2006, Iskandar Malaysia (“Iskandar”), which is divided into 5 flagships, is envisioned to be a metropolis of 3m people by 2025, driven by strategic initiatives to transform the area by adding privately funded industries, theme parks, hotels, hospitals and universities. Despite a slow start, we understand that investments have since picked up substantially with cumulative Iskandar Malaysia, a brief…… investments totaling RM105bn as of end-2012. Apart from the cheap land, key policy changes such as a 10-year corporate tax holiday and the waiver of affirmative action preferences in the special zone of Medini also attracted the investors. Figure 1: Five Flagships of Iskandar Malaysia Iskandar’s Land Area = 2,217sqm 3x Singapore’s land mass Source: IRDA 2 Important disclaimer is provided at the end of this report.| PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Page 2 of 11 PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK When the road is through, the money will flow Following the rail tracks. As per ancient Chinese adage, “when the road is through, the money will flow”, we believe certain areas such as Nusajaya (incl. Medini), Danga Bay, Leisure Farm, among others might be the early hotspots based on the proposed public transportation system. Rail connectivity, in our view will be vastly improved and add more appeal of Iskandar Malaysia should the proposed KL-Singapore High Speed Rail and JB-Singapore Rapid Transit System take off. Preliminary completion targets for these high-impact projects are by 2020. All told, the real long-term outcome of these projects could be warmer relations between Malaysia and Singapore. Figure 2: Proposed Comprehensive Public Transportation System Source: IRDA Figure 3: Transportation Map Source: IRDA 3 Important disclaimer is provided at the end of this report.| PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Page 3 of 11 PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Prefer developments in Flagship A and B. We believe these two flagships will be the leading addresses, based on the connectivity and catalytic projects located in these two nodes. Presently, Singapore and Malaysia are linked by the two bridges (Causeway and Tuas Second Link). To improve connectivity, the Rapid Transit System was mooted in 2012 and targeted to be completed by 2018, with the last-stop station proposed at JB Sentral (located at Flagship A). We also understand that the proposed High-Speed Rail (HSR) connecting KL and Singapore will have Nusajaya (located at Flagship B) earmarked as one of the three stop stations in Johor. As such, we believe these two nodes will attract the most interest in the near term. The Key Projects. Projects that we like in Flagship A include Nusajaya (Puteri Harbor, Medini, Gerbang Nusajaya etc) and Leisure Farm. Meanwhile, the projects that piqued our interest in Flagship B are Danga Bay, KSL City and Senibong Cove, among others. The companies under our coverage i.e. UEM Land is currently the largest landowner in Nusajaya with 7,166 acres and E&O through its joint venture with Temasek and Khazanah which will develop a 210- acre land in Medini. Figure 4: Economic Clusters of Iskandar Malaysia Source: IRDA Nusajaya, which is zoned as the hubs for education & medical, tourism, entertainment & recreation, state administration and finance, will be the premier community in our view due to the location, transportation network (potential site for HSR last stop, ferry to Marina Bay) and well-designed master plan that include theme park, universities, hospitals, etc. Over the near term, we believe most activities will evolve around these few projects i.e. Puteri Harbor, Medini and Leisure Farm. 4 Important disclaimer is provided at the end of this report.| PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Page 4 of 11 PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Puteri Harbor, which is located near the state administrative centre, Kota Iskandar is a 688-acre development that has 10.8km water front and a marina. Most of the recent launches and land deals done recently involved Puteri Harbor which demonstrated the appeal of Puteri Harbor. Among the projects launched so far include Somerset (UM Land), Encorp Marina (Encorp) and Imperia &Teega (UEM Land) which were almost fully taken up and sold at average selling price as high as RM1000 psf. As for land deal, the recent 44-acre land sold to a consortium owned by several tycoons also for RM401m also caught investors’ attention. Figure 5 : Puteri Harbour Source: Company Medini, is a 2,200-acre development that will be developed into four hubs to house six zones with distinctive themes. The selling point of Medini is the waiver of affirmative action preferences and other incentives such as 1) exemption from Foreign Investment Committee rules, 2) freedom to source capital globally, 3) the ability to employ foreigners freely, 4) exemption from income taxes for 10 years from commencement of business, and 5) exemption from withholding tax on royalty and technical fee payments to non-residents for 10 years from commencement of operations. These incentives are available only for the creative, education, financial advisory and consulting, healthcare, logistics and tourism industries. Figure 6 : Medini Source: Company 5 Important disclaimer is provided at the end of this report.| PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Page 5 of 11 PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK Leisure Farm, which has a land size measuring 1,765 acres, is a development situated in Gelang Patah or 15-minute drive from Tuas, Singapore via second link.
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