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Canada Lynx Restoration at Isle Royale National Park a Feasibility Study

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Canada Lynx Restoration at Isle Royale National Park a Feasibility Study National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Canada Lynx Restoration at Isle Royale National Park A Feasibility Study Natural Resource Report NPS/ISRO/NRR—2016/1251 ON THE COVER Photograph of Canada Lynx. Photograph by Daniel S. Licht Canada Lynx Restoration at Isle Royale National Park A Feasibility Study Natural Resource Report NPS/ISRO/NRR—2016/1251 Daniel S. Licht National Park Service 231 E. St. Joseph Street Rapid City, SD 57701 Ron A. Moen University of Minnesota 5013 Miller Trunk Highway Duluth, MN 55811 Mark C. Romanski Isle Royale National Park 800 East Lakeshore Drive Houghton, MI 49931 Paul Brown Isle Royale National Park 800 East Lakeshore Drive Houghton, MI 49931 August 2016 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Natural Resource Program Center Fort Collins, Colorado The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado, publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics. These reports are of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and others in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental constituencies, and the public. The Natural Resource Report Series is used to disseminate comprehensive information and analysis about natural resources and related topics concerning lands managed by the National Park Service. The series supports the advancement of science, informed decision-making, and the achievement of the National Park Service mission. The series also provides a forum for presenting more lengthy results that may not be accepted by publications with page limitations. All manuscripts in the series receive the appropriate level of peer review to ensure that the information is scientifically credible, technically accurate, appropriately written for the intended audience, and designed and published in a professional manner. This report received formal peer review by subject-matter experts who were not directly involved in the collection, analysis, or reporting of the data, and whose background and expertise put them on par technically and scientifically with the authors of the information. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the U.S. Government. This report is available from the Natural Resource Publications Management website (http://www.nature.nps.gov/publications/NRPM). To receive this report in a format optimized for screen readers, please email [email protected]. Please cite this publication as: Licht, D. S., R. A. Moen, M. C. Romanski, and P. Brown. 2016. Canada lynx restoration at Isle Royale National Park: A feasibility study. Natural Resource Report NPS/ISRO/NRR—2016/1251. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado. NPS 139/133624, August 2016 ii Contents Page Contents ................................................................................................................................................. ii Figures.................................................................................................................................................... v Tables ..................................................................................................................................................... v Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. vi Acknowledgments ...............................................................................................................................viii Introduction and Background on Isle Royale and Canada Lynx ........................................................... 1 Introduction and Justification for the Study ................................................................................... 1 Isle Royale ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction to Isle Royale National Park ................................................................................. 1 Current Natural Resource Conditions Relevant to Lynx ................................................................ 5 Canada Lynx Ecology, Status, and Management ......................................................................... 10 Ecology .................................................................................................................................... 10 Current Distribution and Legal Status ..................................................................................... 16 Management Practices ............................................................................................................. 17 Study Objectives ........................................................................................................................... 19 Methods ................................................................................................................................................ 20 Methods Used to Determine the Historical Status and Causes of the Extirpation ....................... 20 Methods Used to Assess the Current Lynx Carrying Capacity .................................................... 20 Methods Used to Assess Long-term Viability and Management Options ................................... 21 Results .................................................................................................................................................. 23 Historical Status and Possible Reasons for the Extirpation .......................................................... 23 Historical Status....................................................................................................................... 23 Reasons for the Extirpation ..................................................................................................... 26 Current Carrying Capacity ........................................................................................................... 28 Historical Records ................................................................................................................... 28 Lynx Home Range and Densities on the Mainland ................................................................. 29 Vegetation Types ..................................................................................................................... 29 Hare Densities ......................................................................................................................... 30 iii Contents (continued) Page Other Considerations ............................................................................................................... 30 Estimated Lynx Carrying Capacity at Isle Royale .................................................................. 31 Population Viability Assessment .................................................................................................. 31 Discussion and Summary ..................................................................................................................... 36 Climate Change ............................................................................................................................ 36 Recommendations ........................................................................................................................ 37 Potential Impacts .......................................................................................................................... 38 Literature Cited .................................................................................................................................... 41 iv Figures Page Figure 1. Isle Royale National Park is located in western Lake Superior. ............................................ 2 Figure 2. Map of anthropogenic features on Isle Royale. .................................................................... 4 Figure 3. Observed (1=yes, 0=no) and logistic regression probability of ice-bridge formation based on visual observations (Licht et al. 2015). .................................................................. 6 Figure 4. Frequency of an ice-bridge between the island and mainland, 1973-2002 (Licht et al. 2015). .................................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 5. Vegetation communities at Isle Royale National Park. ......................................................... 8 Figure 6. Canada lynx are generally secretive and solitary predators ................................................. 11 Figure 7. Snowshoe hare are the primary prey of Canada lynx .......................................................... 12 Figure 8. Red squirrels are an important secondary prey item for lynx ............................................. 12 Figure 9. Lynx killed in 1904 when swimming between islands ........................................................ 23 Figure 10. Probability of persistence under various supplementation schedules for the baseline cyclical model (expanded from Licht et al. accepted). .......................................................... 33 Figure 11. Spider plot of cyclical model sensitivity
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