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Downloaded 10/06/21 11:56 PM UTC 34 Vol Great Historical Events that were 1 Neumann*and 1 De,,willer" Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 9, the Year Leading to the Revolution of 1789 in France (II)* Abstract sumed political overtones, especially in Paris. This was due to agitation by the bourgeoisie who desired the abolition of the many This paper is an extension of an earlier paper (Neumann 1977) on privileges of the nobility and Church, and the lifting of restrictions historical events affected by the weather. More data are published on some economic activities. The bread riots, caused by the high herein on rainfall, pressure and temperature for spring-early sum- bread prices (and, ultimately, by the drought), were used by the mer 1788, when a severe drought struck France during anticy- middle class for overthrowing the existing regime. clonic conditions, leading to a crop failure. It is estimated that the In France of the 1700s, the number of poor depended on the grain harvest was 35%-40% below the mean for 1774-88. (The price of bread which, first and foremost, was determined by the wine-grape harvest was even more catastrophic.) The shortfall led harvest. to increasingly high bread prices. The prices reached the highest level on 14 July 1789 (Bastille Day). Since workers spent about 55% of their income on bread and flour prior to 1788, bread riots had already broken out in August 1788. The number and violence 1. Introduction of the riots tended to increase with time, causing a destabilization of public order. Neumann (1977) published an article titled 'The Year A meteorological factor of secondary importance was the harsh winter of 1788-89, which brought additional suffering to the lower Leading to the Revolution of 1789 in France" which classes. The price of heating materials rose, and water mills could was the second part of the series in which the present not be operated because of the ice. paper appears. We shall refer to the aforementioned Until April 1789 the numerous riots did not have, in most cases, paper as FR I. Dettwiller (1978) prepared an article anti-regime overtones. After May, however, the disturbances as- for a magazine of the Meteorologie Nationale of France titled "Historique: La revolution de 1789 et la me- teorologie/' This article summarized the main theses * Emeritus, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The Hebrew of FR I and put forward additional meteorological University, Jerusalem, Israel; in 1986-89 visiting with the De- data in support of the theses. partment of Meteorology, University of Copenhagen, Copen- hagen, Denmark In view of the 200th anniversary of the French Rev- ** Meteorologie Nationale, Paris, France olution (July 1989), we have prepared a second part t Part 1, "The Mongol Invasions of Japan," was published in to FR I in which we set forth more meteorological the November 1975 Bulletin (56, 1167—1171); Part 2, The Year Leading to the Revolution of 1789 in France," was published in data and comments on the meteorological events, i.e., the February 1977 Bulletin (58, 163-168); Part 3, "The Cold Win- a severe drought in spring 1 788, and a factor of sec- ter 1657-58: The Swedish Army Crosses Denmark's Frozen Sea ondary importance, namely the harsh winter 1788/ Areas," was published in the November 1978 Bulletin (59, 1432- 1437); Part 4, "The Great Famines in Finland and Estonia," was 89, that played important roles in destabilizing pub- published in the July 1979 Bulletin (60, 775-787); Part 5, "Some lic order and promoting significantly the process Meteorological Events of the Crimean War and Their Conse- leading to the political and social convulsion of France quences," was published in the December 1980 Bulletin (61, 1570- 1583); Part 6, "Inundations and the Mild Winter 1672-73 Help in summer 1789. Protect Amsterdam from French Conquest," was published in the In FR I a number of facts were quoted concerning (64, July 1983 Bulletin 770-778); Part 7 Protestant Wind—Popish the backwardness of agriculture in the days of the Wind: The Revolution of 1688 in England," was published in the June 1985 Bulletin (66, 634-644); Part 8, Chapter I, "Germany's Old Regime (Ancien Regime that ruled until the ad- War on the Soviet Union, 1941-45: Long-Range Weather Fore- vent of the Revolution). We have cited the literary casts for 1941-42 and Climatological Studies," was published in critic, philosopher, and historian Taine (1931, p. 339), the June 1987 Bulletin (68, 620-630): and Part 8, Chapter II, "Ger- many's War on the Soviet Union, 1941-45: Some Important Weather and here we cite his remark in a more complete form: Forecasts, 1942-45," was published in the July 1989 Bulletin (69, "[In France] the fields lie fallow one year out of three 730-735). and oftentimes one year out of two. The implements are poor; there are no ploughs made of iron; in many © 1990 American Meteorological Society places the plough of Virgil's time is still in use. Bulletin American Meteorological Society 33 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/06/21 11:56 PM UTC 34 Vol. 71, No. 1, January 1990 The yield is slight. 'Our ordinary farms/ says a good the highest temperatures recorded by the physicist observer, 'return about six times the seed sown/ " Arago (1858), who had much interest in meteorol- As to the latter statement, a similar observation was ogy, shows that in spring and early summer the tem- made nearly 100 yr earlier by Arthur Young (1976, peratures reached 32°-35°C. These high temperatures p. 602) a prominent British agricultural economist of must have enhanced potential evapotranspiration and the time1 who traveled widely in France in 1787-89 since rainfall was scanty, the young crops suffered and whose observations are quoted by many histo- and, in many cases, withered. The consequence was rians writing on the French Revolution. The other re- crop failure. mark we wish to quote is also due to Young (1976, Table 3 in FR I also lists the atmospheric pressure pp. 605-606). According to his estimate, while Brit- at the Paris Astronomical Observatory for the months ish agriculture produced 24-25 bushels of high-qual- April-June during the period 1781-95. The mean ity grain per acre, in France it was but 18 bushels, pressure in April 1788 was the highest of the series, some of it low quality. The underdeveloped state of while in May 1788 it was the second highest. In fig- the French agriculture made it highly vulnerable with ure 2 herein, we graph the pressure for the months regard to unfavorable weather [italics added]. April-July (this is nearly the complete growing sea- FR I also cited a number of facts on the poverty of son) for a longer period, 1770-99. The graph shows the "peasant" masses (small share-croppers, day la- that the mean pressure for 1788 was by far the high- borers) who constituted over 80% of France's popu- est: anticyclonic conditions must have prevailed dur- lation of over 26 million people. A few details were ing the growing season and they presumably account given of the heavy burden of "feudal" dues to which for the low rainfall and the high temperatures. the tenants were subjected by the landlords who be- It was not only in France that rainfall was low. The longed mostly to the aristocracy (some 350 000 in- data for Kew (Wales-Smith, 1971, p. 358), a suburb dividuals, including families), were high church of London, indicates that in southeast England, pre- dignitaries, or in the richer monastic orders. These cipitation was also deficient, though not to a cata- heavy dues were in addition to government taxes and strophic extent. Brazell (1968, p. 7) states that 1788 tithing to the Church. (The nobility and Church were was a dry year in the British capital. exempted from most taxes.) The only major industry of France (i.e., the textile and silk industry), underwent a crisis in 1787-89, 3. The harvest failure of 1788 causing unemployment in cities. The number of un- employed was further swelled by the rigorous winter of 1788/89 which forced some industries and work- Labrousse (1944), one of the most notable economic shops to close down. Since up to 95% of the diet of the lower classes consisted of bread or of flour-based foods, a year of inadequate harvest and rising bread prices increased the number of poor. 2. The drought of spring 1788 Figure 1 is a map of France showing the deviation of the April-May rainfall from the average for 1781-90. The number of rainfall stations was small at the time, but the existing data indicate that, with the exception of Paris, all the rainfall stations had a deficit of at least 35%. The shortfall was particularly serious in the south, where it reached 88%. The absence of precipitation was aggravated by relatively high tem- peratures (see tables 2 and 3 in FR I). The table of FIG. 1. The drought of spring 1788 in France. Rainfall deviation 1 F.R.S., Secretary to the British Honourable Board of Agricul- expressed as percent of the April-May 1788 rainfall compared to ture. the mean for 1781-90. Source: Gamier (1974). Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/06/21 11:56 PM UTC Bulletin American Meteorological Society 35 FIG. 3. Index of the wine harvest, 1772-88, expressed as per FIG. 2. Mean pressure of the months April-July (approximately cent of wine harvest of the Champagne province. The mean of the growing season) 1770-99, at the Paris Astronomical Observ- 1772-84 has been taken by Lefebvre (1944, p.
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