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Estimating the Migration of Puerto Ricans to Florida Using Flight Passenger Data Stefan Rayer Bureau of Economic and Business R

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Estimating the Migration of Puerto Ricans to Florida Using Flight Passenger Data Stefan Rayer Bureau of Economic and Business R Estimating the Migration of Puerto Ricans to Florida Using Flight Passenger Data Stefan Rayer Bureau of Economic and Business Research University of Florida October 3, 2018 Abstract Florida has been a primary destination for migrants from Puerto Rico for many years. Hurricane Maria, which made landfall in Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017, caused extensive damage on the island. In its aftermath, thousands of Puerto Ricans have moved to the U.S. mainland, many of them to Florida. Estimating the size of this inflow to Florida is no easy task, given that no direct measures of migration are available. Various indicators such as flight passenger arrivals, individuals served at multi-agency resource centers, school enrollments, FEMA applications, U.S. postal service address changes, and mobile phone data have been analyzed, often leading to quite different estimates. In this paper, the feasibility of using flight passenger data to estimate net migration between Puerto Rico and Florida is explored. The study compares historical flight passenger data to migration estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS). This is followed by a more detailed analysis of the flight passenger flows between Puerto Rico and Florida since Hurricane Maria; flight passenger flows between Puerto Rico and airports in other states on the U.S. mainland are also briefly examined. The study finds that – with some caveats – the flight passenger data may indeed be useful for estimating the hurricane-induced migration from Puerto Rico to Florida. Based on the available evidence, it is estimated that about 30,000 to 50,000 Puerto Ricans moved to Florida in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. Introduction Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, September 20, 2017, as a Category 4 hurricane, causing widespread destruction on the island. In its aftermath, thousands of Puerto Ricans moved to the U.S. mainland, many of them to Florida. The first assessment of the demographic impacts of the hurricane on Florida was made on December 5, 2017, at the Demographic Estimating Conference in Tallahassee, Florida. At the conference, a hurricane- induced migration estimate of about 53,000 was adopted.1 This estimate was based on counts of Puerto Ricans that had visited multi-agency resource centers at Orlando and Miami international airports – as well as the Port of Miami – through the end of November 2017; flight arrivals and school enrollment data were also considered. Another prominent estimate, based on school enrollment data, by the Center for Puerto Rican Studies at Hunter College, CUNY, arrived at a similar number (about 56,000).2 In February, Ying Wang and I published a BEBR website article on the growth of the Puerto Rican population in Florida and on the U.S. mainland.3 The article focused primarily on longer term population changes since 2000, but it also briefly addressed the hurricane-induced migration. In the article, we concluded that the earlier estimate of 53,000 was “a reasonable estimate, given the available information at the time, but the eventual number could turn out quite differently. To us, this estimate seems somewhat conservative; we note, however, that some of the higher estimates that have circulated in the news appear to be highly speculative given the available data.” This article, published just over one year after the hurricane made landfall in Puerto Rico, provides an update to that earlier assessment. 1 Table 1 shows the three different data sources that were used in the December 5, 2017, estimate for the hurricane-induced migration from Puerto Rico: individuals arrived from Puerto Rico at Miami and Orlando international airports and the Port of Miami; individuals served at multi-agency resource centers at the three ports; and Florida school district enrollment of displaced students from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The data were released by the Florida Governor’s Office starting on October 13, 2017, with updates every couple of weeks through February 2, 2018.4 At the time of the conference in early December, data through the end of November were available. As the table shows, in the following months the number of individuals arriving at the airports continued to go up, but the number of individuals served at the multi-agency resource centers, as well as the number of K–12 students from the islands enrolled in Florida schools, increased only marginally, especially after early January. Much of the press coverage in the months after the hurricane focused on flight passengers from Puerto Rico arriving at Florida airports, whose number had reached almost 300,000 by the end of year (see Table 1). Headlines such as “A great migration from Puerto Rico is set to transform Orlando”5 and “Puerto Rico’s mass migration is reshaping Florida”6 were common. Flight passenger arrivals in Florida were used to extrapolate the potential demographic impact on the state: “Planes arriving from Puerto Rico remain full and some estimate as many as half a million people will eventually make their way to Florida.”7 A recent study on excess mortality from Hurricane Maria also used flight passenger data, complemented by monthly net domestic migration estimates provided by the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics and a survey of airline travelers provided by the Puerto Rico Planning Board; it estimated a population reduction on the island of about 280,000 over the period mid-September 2017 to 2 mid-February 2018.8 Data sources such as FEMA applications, U.S. Postal Service address changes, and mobile phone data have been proposed as alternative – and potentially better – indicators with which to measure the hurricane-induced migration of Puerto Ricans to Florida and other states on the U.S. mainland.9 10 Stories of Puerto Ricans returning to the island also appeared, which showed that return migration needs to be considered in the estimates.11 Given the prominence of the flight passenger data in discussions of post-Hurricane Maria migration from Puerto Rico to Florida, how valuable are these data for measuring actual migration flows? Flight passenger arrivals, by themselves, are not a good measure for gauging migration; only inflows are counted, and no distinction between migrants and other travelers can be made. The number of net flight passengers – calculated in this case as flight passengers from Puerto Rico to Florida minus flight passengers from Florida to Puerto Rico – on the other hand, may be indicative of migration. Puerto Rico represents a good case study for testing the feasibility of this approach, given its island location and the absence of regularly scheduled ferry service to and from the U.S. mainland. Although Puerto Rico is a major destination for cruise ships, most people moving between the island and Florida likely use commercial flights as their mode of transportation. The remainder of this article examines in more detail how the flight passenger data can be used to estimate migration flows between Puerto Rico and Florida. The analysis starts with an examination of historical flight passenger flows, which will be compared to historical migration data. This is followed by a more detailed look at the patterns since Hurricane Maria. 3 Historical Flight Passenger Data The Bureau of Transportation Statistics at the U.S. Department of Transportation releases – on a monthly basis – flight passenger statistics reported by U.S. air carriers operating between airports located within the boundaries of the United States and its territories.12 Puerto Rican airports with direct flights to Florida currently include Aguadilla (BQN), located in the northwestern tip of the island; Ponce (PSE), located in the southern part of the island; and San Juan (SJU), Puerto Rico’s capital and most populous municipality, located on the northeastern coast. San Juan accounts for almost 90% of all flight passengers between Puerto Rico and Florida. Florida airports with direct flights to Puerto Rico currently include Ft. Lauderdale (FLL), Ft. Myers (RSW), Miami (MIA), Orlando (MCO), Orlando Sanford (SFB), and Tampa (TPA); Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, and Miami account for most of the traffic from and to Puerto Rico, followed at some distance by Tampa. Figure 1 displays the annual number of flight passengers between Puerto Rico and Florida for the period 2005–2016. The number of flight passengers increased over time, from about 2.5 million per year in 2005/06 (the total volume in both directions) to almost 3.2 million per year by 2015/16, with elevated numbers in 2007 and 2008. In each year, more flight passengers flew from Puerto Rico to Florida than vice versa, though the overall number of flight passengers was quite balanced in both directions. Between 2005 and 2016, Florida’s net gain of about 320,000 flight passengers amounted to less than 1% of the overall volume of flight passengers between Puerto Rico and Florida (about 33.5 million). In addition to increasing overall flight passenger volumes, there was also an upward trend in the net gain of flight 4 passengers for Florida over the period, which ranged from about 7,000 in 2006 to 53,000 in 2015, though it dropped to 37,000 in 2016. Figure 2 shows the monthly average number of flight passengers between airports in Puerto Rico and Florida for the same period 2005–2016. There is a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest volumes during the summer months, and in January and December. In most months, on average, more passengers fly from Puerto Rico to Florida than from Florida to the island, especially in May and August; conversely, in January, June, and December more passengers fly from Florida to Puerto Rico. These seasonal patterns have been quite stable over time. The flight passenger data thus indicate that more people have flown from Puerto Rico to Florida than vice versa since 2005, amounting to a net gain for Florida of about 320,000 by 2016.
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