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University of Southampton Research Repository University of Southampton Research Repository Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis and, where applicable, any accompanying data are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis and the accompanying data cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content of the thesis and accompanying research data (where applicable) must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holder/s. When referring to this thesis and any accompanying data, full bibliographic details must be given, e.g. Thesis: Schuster A (2020) "Isolation and Social Change: Assessing the Nature and Determinants of Fertility Change in Myanmar", University of Southampton, Faculty of Social Statistics and Demography, PhD Thesis, 208. University of Southampton Faculty of Social Statistics and Demography School of Economic, Social and Political Sciences Isolation and Social Change: Assessing the Nature and Determinants of Fertility Change in Myanmar by Anne Corbit Blauvelt Schuster Master of Public Health Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy September, 2019 University of Southampton Abstract Faculty of Social Statistics and Demography School of Economic, Social and Political Sciences Doctor of Philosophy Isolation and Social Change: Assessing the Nature and Determinants of Fertility Change in Myanmar by Anne Corbit Blauvelt Schuster Historic fertility declines across Asia suggest that significant social change and the institutional provision of family planning are necessary preconditions for reducing fertility, but Myanmar’s fertility decline took place during a time of authoritarian control and conflict, and prior to the introduction of government family planning programs. This thesis integrates classical demographic methods with geospatial measures of physical and social remoteness and conflict exposure to understand how these factors interact with and potentially influence sexual and reproductive decision making and fertility outcomes in Myanmar. Using newly released census and Demographic Health Survey data, this thesis begins by presenting methods for estimating fertility in Myanmar at several administrative levels, including the introduction of a Myanmar-specific standard fertility schedule. The associations between district level social and demographic characteristics and total fertility are assessed, demonstrating the importance of social and physical remoteness on fertility. Next, factors associated with fertility are examined using the proximate determinants of fertility framework. The social and economic factors associated with entry into marriage are then explored. Finally, the thesis combines individual level reproductive health and fertility data with geolocated conflict-event data to further examine the relationships between conflict exposure and fertility. Ultimately, it is through these processes that this thesis describes fertility changes across Myanmar, contributing to a deeper understanding of how classical demographic theory can be understood and applied to fragile states. Table of Contents Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... i Table of Figures ............................................................................................................ v Table of Maps .............................................................................................................. vii Table of Tables ........................................................................................................... viii Research Thesis: Declaration of Authorship ..................................................................ix Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................xi Abbreviations ............................................................................................................. xiii Chapter 1 Background and Introduction to Research .................................................. 1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Country overview ....................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 Geography .......................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 Population changes ............................................................................................ 5 1.2.3 Health system ..................................................................................................... 6 1.2.4 Conflict history .................................................................................................... 8 1.2.5 Women’s Status................................................................................................ 10 1.3 Theoretical considerations ....................................................................................... 12 1.3.1 Remoteness ...................................................................................................... 17 1.3.2 Conflict .............................................................................................................. 18 1.4 Theoretical framework ............................................................................................. 19 1.5 Study overview and thesis structure ........................................................................ 20 1.5.1 Research objectives and questions ................................................................... 21 1.5.2 Thesis structure ................................................................................................ 21 Chapter 2 Data Sources and Quality ......................................................................... 25 2.1 Data sources ............................................................................................................. 25 2.1.1 Aggregate data ................................................................................................ 25 2.1.2 Individual data .................................................................................................. 27 2.1.3 Conflict event data ........................................................................................... 27 i 2.1.4 Geographic data .............................................................................................. 28 2.2 Assessment of data quality ...................................................................................... 29 2.2.1 Census data ...................................................................................................... 29 2.2.2 Myanmar Demographic and Health Survey data ............................................ 31 2.2.3 Comparison of census and DHS data ............................................................... 32 2.2.4 Other population surveys ................................................................................. 34 2.3 Overview of survey questions for estimation .......................................................... 36 2.3.1 Fertility ............................................................................................................. 36 2.3.2 Mortality .......................................................................................................... 36 2.4 General data limitations due to conflict .................................................................. 37 Chapter 3 Intercensal Population Change in Myanmar: 1983 - 2014 ........................... 39 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 39 3.2 Data and methods .................................................................................................... 40 3.2.1 Population trends ............................................................................................. 40 3.2.2 National and state/region fertility estimates for census years ....................... 40 3.2.3 National fertility estimates for intercensal years ............................................ 43 3.2.4 Sub-national fertility estimates for census years ............................................. 45 3.3 Results ...................................................................................................................... 45 3.3.1 Intercensal population changes ....................................................................... 45 3.3.2 Fertility change ................................................................................................ 50 3.3.3 Changing mortality and migration patterns .................................................... 56 3.4 Discussion and conclusions ...................................................................................... 64 Chapter 4 The Geography of Changing Fertility in Myanmar ...................................... 67 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 67 4.2 Data and methods .................................................................................................... 69 4.3 Results .....................................................................................................................
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