DOCSLIB.ORG

Nor'easter Impacts, Large Battering Waves and Coastal Erosion

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Nor'easter Impacts, Large Battering Waves and Coastal Erosion Nor’easter Impacts, Large Battering Waves and Coastal Erosion John Cannon, NOAA/National Weather Service Maine Beaches Conference July 12th, 2013 Partnerships: NERACOOS NOS Wells National Reserve Maine Geological Survey City of Hampton and Saco NOAA in New England Group ME/NH Emergency Mgrs. & City Officials Coastal Services Center Maine Sea Grant Mass CMZ NART, NHDES …And many others… Coastal Hazards L Severe thunderstorms – Damaging winds, hail and Lightning L Marine Hazards – Hurricanes, Tsunamis, Rip Currents, Cold Water Drowning, Freezing Spray Oil Spills, Artic Sea Smoke L Winter Storms – Ice Storms – Blizzards – Nor’easters… L Large Ocean Waves: Coastal Erosion and Coastal Flooding L Fresh Water Flooding Marine Buoy Networks Monitoring Ocean Waves in the Gulf of Maine www.NERACOOS.org The Wave vs. Coastal Inundation Paradox Which is the greater threat for your location ??? The Patriot’s Day Storm, 2007 Saco, Maine A Dangerous Combination: As Wave Heights & Storm Tides Increase…the Threat of Coastal Damage Increases Coastal Flooding and The Relationship between High Storm Tides and Large Ocean Waves 25 Major Flooding 20 15 Moderate Flooding 10 Minor Flooding 5 Splash-over 0 Fresh Water Flooding Wave Height (ft) Height Wave 10 11 12 13 14 Storm Tide (ft) Figure 8: The empirical relationship between storm tide, waves and coastal flooding (1980-2007). Wave Climatology Portland, Maine (2007) So Large Waves (combined with high storm tides) Lead to coastal erosion and damage Wave Growth Factor of… 1. Wind speed 2. Fetch 3. Duration 1. Increased Wind Speeds: Allow for Wave Growth L East Coast Cyclogenesis can trigger… – Intense Nor’easters and “Hybrid” storms Gulf Stream Serves Important Role in Winter Storms Info on Hybrid Storms See… http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ The Relationship Between Wind Speed and Wave Energy As winds increase…wave energy increases dramatically 2. Fetch: The longer distance winds travel over water, the greater the wave growth (NE, E or SE Flow) Storm Force Winds Patriots Day Storm: April 16, 2007 What about a “Moving Fetch”? Strong Wind Field Moves with the Large, Building Waves Local Example: Feb. 26, 2010 Waves During February, 2010 Nor’easter Rapid increase in wave height February, 2010… Storm Impact Saco, Wells, Popham Courtesy P. Slovinsky 3. Duration: Slow moving, long duration storms tend to produce larger waves (by creating a full sea state) “The Perfect Storm”: Time Scale Often Days and Not Hours Fast Moving Systems: Do not have time to produce large waves in Northern New England Hurricane Bob no issues A Conceptual Model of a Storm that Produces Large, Battering Waves in ME/NH Strong and Persistent winds with a “Moving Fetch” Feb 26th, 2010 Intense Nor’easter Produced Significant Erosion/Damage A few final thoughts about Large waves “Wave Setup” Water rise due to breaking waves - - potential energy of large ocean waves is converted into the kinetic energy required to maintain an anomalous surge of water near the shoreline. “Wave Run-up” Leads to Splash-over [The highest 2 % breaker run-up can be mathematically computed (Water rise ~ ½ York Beach Maine the predicted breaking wave height plus 50 cm)] “Waves: Bathymetry & Beach Orientation” Storm surge (sloshing effect) versus erosion http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/storm_surge.shtml Long Period Waves L Tropical Systems: Hurricane Bill, Acadia (2009) – Dangerous surf and rip currents – 13 Injuries with fatalities, Erosion “Very” Long Period Waves “Meteo-Tsunami” Boothbay Harbor, Oct. 2008 RADAR ANIMATION Base Reflectivity Loop Cell movement 82 kts Coastal Flood & Erosion Forecast Tools (Partnerships Underway to predict erosion/damage due to wave action) Stockdon (USGS) Empirical Collision Model Mignone 2013 Elements of Storm Impact Scaling Model Swash Regime: Minimal erosion/effect on the dunes 7 Least potential Hazard Elements of Storm Impact Scaling Model Collision Regime: Erosion of dunes/ Some splash-over 7 aves impact dune 7 Leads to erosion Elements of Storm Impact Scaling Model Overwash Regime: Splash-over & Backwater flooding 7 Dune overwash 7 Destruction of Dune 7 Road closures Elements of Storm Impact Scaling Model Inundation Regime: Coastal Flooding 7 Dunes are effectively underwater Test site Stockdon Equations: December 27th, 2012 Storm L Seas 21-25 feet at high tide (nearshore buoys) L Astronomical tide only 9.5’ in PWM Harbor + Storm surge 2.5’ = Yields Storm tide 12.0 feet (FS=12.0 ‘) L On a sunny day, 12.0 feet = minimal issues – But not this day Coastal Impact Tools Coastal Flood Nomogram based on Storm Tides/Waves Available at www.NERACOOS.org Expand Nomograms to other “Hot Spots” Rockland: FS ~ 12.5+ ft/ waves not a big issue Bath/Woolwich: FS ~ 12.5+ ft + heavy rains Portland: FS = 12 ft/commercial street floods at 13.5 ft Saco: FS ~ 12.75’ (Splash-over begins with 10+ ft waves + mdt-high storm tides causes flooding & closings of roadways) Wells/York/KBunk: FS ~ 12.75’ (Splash-over begins with 15-20 ft waves + moderate/high storm tides) Hampton: FS ~ 10.75 feet (Fort Point Gage)] (Splash-over mainly with ~ 15 - 20 ft waves + moderate/high storm tides) Available on our “Marine Wiki Page” Scituate Hampton Coastal Flooding and Splash-over Forecast Matrix Forecast Wave Height (Ft) (Buoy “B”) 0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 14.00 Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj 13.75 Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj 13.50 Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj 13.25 Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj 13.00 Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj 12.75 Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Mj Mj Mj Mj Mj NECOFS Forecast Storm Tide (Ft) 12.50 Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Mj Mj Mj Mj (MLLW, Fort Point, NH) 12.25 Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Md Mj Mj Mj 12.00 MI Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Md Md Md Md Md Md Mj Mj 11.75 Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Md Md Md Md Md Md Mj FS ~ 10.75 ft 11.50 Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Md Md Md Md Md Mj 11.25 Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Md Md Md Md Md 11.00 Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Md Md Md Md Md 10.75 Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Md Md Md Md 10.50 Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Md Md Md Statement Optional 10.25 Ac Ac Ac Ac Ac Ac Ac Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Md Md 10.00 Ac Ac Ac Ac Ac Ac Ac Ac Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Md Issue Coastal Flood Advisory 9.75 - - - - - - - Ac Ac Mi Mi Mi Mi Mi Issue Coastal Flood 9.50 - - - - - - - - Ac Ac Mi Mi Mi Mi Warning 9.25 - - - - - - - - - Ac Ac Mi Mi Mi 9.00 - - - - - - - - - - Ac Ac Mi Mi 8.75 - - - - - - - - - - - Ac Ac Mi 8.50 - - - - - - - - - - - - Ac Ac 8.25 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Ac Ac = Action stage. High water levels or wave action with limited or unknown impact. Mi = Minor coastal flooding or splash-over along several roads and basements Md = Moderate coastal flooding or significant splash-over along numerous roadways. Isolated structural damage. Mj = Major coastal flooding with widespread flooding of vulnerable roadways. A few homes severely damaged Hampton NECOFS Model L This is “Part II” of NECOFS high res model following Scituate – Model development focusing on Hampton, NH due to high frequency of coastal inundation – Splash-over occurs along the Hampton Seawall as well Hampton/ Seabrook Watershed boundary Bridge Hampton/Seabrook Beach Hampton Goal: To provide high resolution inundation forecasts for Hampton Tide Gage Installation 12/11/2012 FS ~ 10.75’ December 27, 2012 February 8, 2013 Visualization Experts: UNH Partnership Courtesy CSC New ESTOFS Storm Surge Model “Sandy’s” Verification Portland: Actual Storm Surge = 2.5’ Storm tide = 11.50’ Waves = 22’ Winds 1026g37kt at high tide Fort Point: Actual Storm Surge = 1.7’ …Climatology Aids… Top Ten Tides Portland, Maine 1. 14.70’ - Feb 7, 1978 (Blizzard Of ’78) 2. 13.98’ - Jan 9, 1978 3. 13.40’ - Dec 4, 1990 4. 13.31’ – Mar 16, 1976 5. 13.29’ – Nov 20, 1944 6. 13.29’ – Nov 30, 1945 7. 13.28’ – April 16, 2007 8. 13.18’ – Jan 2, 1987 9. 13.18’ – Oct 30, 1991 10. 13.09’ – Apr 7, 1978 Splash-over along a seawall - courtesy Bruce Budd Tide Return Periods: We are Overdue! Frequency Portland, Maine (Return Period) 13.0’…once every 10 yrs (last time Apr 16, 2007) 13.5’…once every 50 yrs (last time Feb 7, 1978) 14.0’…once every 170 yrs (last time Feb 7, 1978) Spring Tide Data: Normal: 10.4’ above MLLW Maximum: 11.7’ above MLLW Coastal Services Center Social Science of Storm Surge Team L Team – Working with social scientists, marketing and communications specialists, social media experts L Goals – Develop and test effective storm messaging – Create new products and tools for different audience groups Verification: Storm Reporter Website http://reporter.me.stormsmart.org/ New Account Start Here!!! User: johncannon We need your help! Become a Coastal Storm Reporter. “Storm Based” Beach Profiling 2012-2013 Beach Profiles Examples from four notable storms: “Cold Season” 7 Hurricane Sandy (October 28th, 2012) 7 Early Season Nor’easter (December 27th, 2012) 7 Blizzard of 2013 – “Nemo” (February 8th, 2013) 7 Slow Moving Nor’easter (March 8th, 2013) March, 2013 Sandy… 7 Good lead time (“well behaved - slow moving storm”) allowed for early activation of beach monitoring IOSN3 East Winds: 0848G56 Peak wind 64 kts Seas: 25’ Every 11 sec Sandy’s Impact Significant Erosion Wells Beach (Casino Point, WE00) Note Date Before After Gooches Beach GO02 (Little Change after Sandy) Little Change December 27th Nor’easter Buoy “B” (High Tide) Seas=25’ every 11s Winds NE = 0551g56kt Beach Profile Changes (Following December 27th Storm) Erosion FE01 Erosion FE02 Displaced Eroding Edge of dune Before Before After After Camp Ellis CE01 (Little Change) December 27th Storm Measureable Gains (FE04) Sand accretion moved north up the beach? Gains Blizzard of 2013 “NEMO” Wells, Maine (February 8th) “Storm Based” Beach Profile * All-time record snowstorm Portland, Maine February 8th “Blizzard” Gooches Beach L Tree stumps 3000-4000 yrs old based on radiocarbon “I'd estimate the waves were between 12-16 feet high and really rolling in.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Port Recovery in the Aftermath of Hurricane Sandy VOICES Improving Port Resiliency in the Era of Climate Change from the FIELD
    AUGUST 2014 Port Recovery in the Aftermath of Hurricane Sandy VOICES Improving Port Resiliency in the Era of Climate Change FROM THE FIELD By Commander Linda A. Sturgis, USCG; Dr. Tiffany C. Smythe and Captain Andrew E. Tucci, USCG Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge and thank the New York and New Jersey Port community, first responders and dedicated volun- teers who selflessly helped so many people and saved numerous lives in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Dr. Smythe’s research on Hurricane Sandy was supported in part through the University of Colorado Natural Hazards Center’s Quick Response Grant Program, funded by National Science Foundation grant CMMI 1030670. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security or the U.S. government. Cover Image The U.S. Coast Guard fuel pier and shore side facilities in Bayonne, New Jersey were severely damaged from Hurricane Sandy’s storm surge. (U.S. COAST GUARD) AUGUST 2014 Port Recovery in the Aftermath of Hurricane Sandy Improving Port Resiliency in the Era of Climate Change By Commander Linda A. Sturgis, USCG; Dr. Tiffany C. Smythe and Captain Andrew E. Tucci, USCG About the Authors Commander Linda A. Sturgis is a Senior Military Fellow at Captain Andrew E. Tucci is the Chief of the Office the Center for a New American Security. She led the Hurricane of Port and Facility Compliance at Coast Guard Sandy port recovery effort during her assignment at Coast Headquarters in Washington DC.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Strategy
    Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force HURRICANE SANDY REBUILDING STRATEGY Stronger Communities, A Resilient Region August 2013 HURRICANE SANDY REBUILDING STRATEGY Stronger Communities, A Resilient Region Presented to the President of the United States August 2013 Front and Back Cover (Background Photo) Credits: (Front Cover) Hurricane Sandy Approach - NOAA/NASA (Back Cover) Hurricane Sandy Approach - NOAA/NASA Cover (4-Photo Banner) Credits - Left to Right: Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey - FEMA/ Rosanna Arias Liberty Island, New York - FEMA/Kenneth Wilsey Seaside Heights, New Jersey - FEMA/Sharon Karr Seaside Park, New Jersey - FEMA/Rosanna Arias Hurricane Sandy Letter from the Chair Rebuilding Strategy LETTER FROM THE CHAIR Last October, Hurricane Sandy struck the East Coast with incredible power and fury, wreaking havoc in communities across the region. Entire neighborhoods were flooded. Families lost their homes. Businesses were destroyed. Infrastructure was torn apart. After all the damage was done, it was clear that the region faced a long, hard road back. That is why President Obama pledged to work with local partners every step of the way to help affected communities rebuild and recover. In recent years, the Federal Government has made great strides in preparing for and responding to natural disasters. In the case of Sandy, we had vast resources in place before the storm struck, allowing us to quickly organize a massive, multi-agency, multi-state, coordinated response. To ensure a full recovery, the President joined with State and local leaders to fight for a $50 billion relief package. The Task Force and the entire Obama Administration has worked tirelessly to ensure that these funds are getting to those who need them most – and quickly.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane & Tropical Storm
    5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard.
    [Show full text]
  • Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-1 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards
    Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards 5.4.1 Coastal Hazards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urricanes/Tropical Storms $ KXUULFDQH LV D WURSLFDO
    [Show full text]
  • Coastal Storms Are a Reality for New York City, Arriving As Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones ,And Nor’Easters When Certain Meteorological Conditions Converge
    CToaS AL STORMS CHAPTER 4.1 Coastal storms are a reality for New York City, arriving as hurricanes, tropical cyclones ,and nor’easters when certain meteorological conditions converge. Not only dangerous, these storms can be deadly, sustaining destructive winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, coastal flooding, and erosion. Climate change and rising sea levels are likely to worsen their impacts. W HAT IS THE HAZARD? TROPICAL cycLONES Tropical cyclones are organized areas of precipitation and thunderstorms that form over warm tropical ocean waters and rotate counterclockwise around a low pressure center. Such storms are classified as follows: • A tropical depression is an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined low pressure center and maximum sustained winds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less. • A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined low pressure center and maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph. • A hurricane is an intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms, a well-defined low pressure center (“eye”), and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or more. In the North Atlantic Basin—where New York City is located—tropical cyclones often form in the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, in the Caribbean Sea, or in the Gulf of Mexico. Typically, they first track in a westerly or northwesterly direction. They are then pushed northward and eventually eastward by the force of the Earth’s rotation. They may track up the East Coast of the United States and reach New York City if water temperatures are warm enough and the prevailing winds steer them in this direction.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Sandy After Action Report and Recommendations
    Hurricane Sandy After Action Report and Recommendations to Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg May 2013 Deputy Mayor Linda I. Gibbs, Co-Chair Deputy Mayor Caswell F. Holloway, Co-Chair Cover photo: DSNY truck clearing debris Credit: Michael Anton Foreword On October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy hit New York City with a ferocity unequalled by any coastal storm in modern memory. Forty-three New Yorkers lost their lives and tens of thousands were injured, temporarily dislocated, or entirely displaced by the storm’s impact. Knowing the storm was coming, the City activated its Coastal Storm Plan and Mayor Bloomberg ordered the mandatory evacuation of low-lying coastal areas in the five boroughs. Although the storm’s reach exceeded the evacuated zones, it is clear that the Coastal Storm Plan saved lives and mitigated what could have been significantly greater injuries and damage to the public. The City’s response to Hurricane Sandy began well before the storm and continues today, but we are far enough away from the immediate events of October and November 2012 to evaluate the City’s performance to understand what went well and—as another hurricane season approaches—what can be improved. On December 9, 2012 Mayor Bloomberg directed us to conduct that evaluation and report back in a short time with recommendations on how the City’s response capacity and performance can be strengthened in the future. This report and the 59 recommendations in it are intended to advance the achievement of those goals. This report is not intended to be the final word on the City’s response to Hurricane Sandy, nor are the recommendations made here intended to exclude consideration of additional measures the City and other stakeholders could take to be prepared for the next emergency.
    [Show full text]
  • Operational Storm Surge Modeling
    Operational Storm Surge Modeling HFIP Annual Meeting November 17th, 2020 NHC Storm Surge Unit Laura Alaka Andrew Penny [email protected] [email protected] Hurricane Laura Introduction to Probabilistic Storm Surge • P-Surge is based on an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricane (SLOSH) model runs • SLOSH: numerical-dynamic tropical storm surge model • SLOSH requires bathymetry and is applied to a ‘basin’ • SLOSH requires meteorological driving forces: “Wind model is just as important– if not more so– as a surge model” (Jelesnianski et al. 1992) • P-Surge ensemble incorporates uncertainty 2017090900 P-Surge Tracks using a statistical method based on NHC historical errors of: • Cross track (landfall location, # members varies) attempts to encompass 90% of cross track uncertainty • Along track (forward speed, 7 members) • Intensity (3 members) • Storm size (RMW, 3 members) Storm Size Matters P-Surge Upgrade v2.8 Improvements to initial storm structure P-Surge v2.7 • v2.7: RMW derived from SLOSH parametric wind profile often resulted in P-Surge ensemble failing to encompass observed storm size P-Surge v2.8 • v2.8: improvement when 3- member P-Surge storm size ensemble (small, medium, and large storms) initialized from Best track RMW P-Surge Retrospective Runs • 13 storms between 2008-2018: Spans the period of USGS pressure sensors • Evaluation Methodology: • Determine landfall advisory • Determine advisory when the 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 60-, 72-hr forecast points first came closest to the landfall point (the 60-hr was
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Sandy Event Analysis Report | January 4042014 -446-2560 | 1 of 36 ACCEPTED
    ACCEPTED FOR NERC PROCESSING NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION - 2019 Hurricane Sandy April 9 2:49 Event Analysis PM - SCPSC Report - ND-2019-3-E January 2014 - Page 1 of 36 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY 3353 Peachtree Road NE Suite 600, North Tower Atlanta, GA 30326 NERC | Hurricane Sandy Event Analysis Report | January 4042014 -446-2560 | www.nerc.com 1 of 36 ACCEPTED Table of Contents Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................................................2 FOR Objective .....................................................................................................................................................................4 PROCESSING Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................................5 Background .................................................................................................................................................................6 Pre-existing System Conditions ..............................................................................................................................6 Affected Areas ........................................................................................................................................................6 Time Frame for Outage and Restoration ................................................................................................................6
    [Show full text]
  • Comparing the Impacts of Northeast Hurricanes on Energy Infrastructure
    Comparing the Impacts of Northeast Hurricanes on Energy Infrastructure Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability U.S. Department of Energy April 2013 1 For Further Information This report was prepared by the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability under the direction of Patricia Hoffman, Assistant Secretary, and William Bryan, Deputy Assistant Secretary. Specific questions about this report may be directed to Alice Lippert, Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis ([email protected]). Kevin DeCorla-Souza of ICF International contributed to this report. Cover: http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/701091main_20121028-SANDY-GOES-FULL.jpg i Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... iv Storm Comparison ..................................................................................................................... 1 Irene ....................................................................................................................................... 1 Sandy ..................................................................................................................................... 2 Storm Surge and Tides ........................................................................................................... 4 Electricity Impacts ...................................................................................................................... 7 Power
    [Show full text]
  • Hazard Mitigation Plan June 2021
    Westminster, Massachusetts Hazard Mitigation Plan June 2021 Hazard Mitigation Plan Westminster, Massachusetts Prepared by: BETA GROUP, INC. Prepared for: Town of Westminster June 2021 Hazard Mitigation Plan Westminster, Massachusetts TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Federal Disaster Mitigation Act .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Hazard Mitigation Plan Purpose ......................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Planning Process ..................................................................................................................................... 1 2.1 Local Hazard Mitigation Planning Team ............................................................................................. 1 2.2 Planning Process Summary ................................................................................................................. 2 2.3 Public Participation ............................................................................................................................. 2 3.0 Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness .................................................................................................... 2 3.1 Community Resilience Building Workshop ........................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Risk Assessment Severe Winter Storms
    DRAFT UPDATED OCTOBER 2018 www.co.somerset.nj.us/hmp Section 5.4.2: Risk Assessment Severe Winter Storms SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM 5.4.2 SEVERE WINTER STORM This section provides a profile and vulnerability assessment for the severe winter storm hazard. HAZARD PROFILE This section provides profile information including description, extent, location, previous occurrences and losses and the probability of future occurrences. Description For the purpose of this HMP, as deemed appropriate by Somerset County, and per the State of New Jersey Hazard Mitigation Plan (NJ HMP), winter weather events include snow storms, ice storms, cold waves and wind chill with snow storms being “the most obvious manifestation of winter weather.” Since most extra-tropical cyclones (mid-Atlantic cyclones locally known as Northeasters or Nor’easters), generally take place during the winter weather months (with some events being an exception), these hazards have also been grouped as a type of severe winter weather storm. These types of winter events or conditions are further defined below. Heavy Snow: According to the National Weather Service (NWS), heavy snow is generally snowfall accumulating to 4 inches or more in depth in 12 hours or less; or snowfall accumulating to six inches or more in depth in 24 hours or less. A snow squall is an intense, but limited duration, period of moderate to heavy snowfall, also known as a snowstorm, accompanied by strong, gusty surface winds and possibly lightning (generally moderate to heavy snow showers) (NWS, 2005). Snowstorms are complex phenomena involving heavy snow and winds, whose impact can be affected by a great many factors, including a region’s climatologically susceptibility to snowstorms, snowfall amounts, snowfall rates, wind speeds, temperatures, visibility, storm duration, topography, and occurrence during the course of the day, weekday versus weekend, and time of season (Kocin and Uccellini, 2011).
    [Show full text]
  • VA Hurricane History
    THE HURRICANE HISTORY OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA Continuous weather records for the Hampton Roads Area of Virginia began on January 1, 1871 when the National Weather Service was established in downtown Norfolk. The recorded history of significant tropical storms that affected the area goes back much further. Prior to 1871, very early storms have been located in ship logs, newspaper accounts, history books, and countless other writings. The residents of coastal Virginia during Colonial times were very much aware of the weather. They were a people that lived near the water and largely derived their livelihood from the sea. To them, a tropical storm was indeed a noteworthy event. The excellent records left by some of Virginia’s early settlers and from official records of the National Weather Service are summarized below. Learning from the past will help us prepare for the future. SEVENTEENTH AND EIGHTEENTH CENTURIES 1635 August 24 First historical reference to a major hurricane that could have affected the VA coast. 1667 September 6 It appears likely this hurricane caused the widening of the Lynnhaven River. The Bay rose 12 feet above normal and many people had to flee. 1693 October 29 From the Royal Society of London, There happened a most violent storm in VA which stopped the course of ancient channels and made some where there never were any. 1749 October 19 Tremendous hurricane. A sand spit of 800 acres was washed up and with the help of a hurricane in 1806 it became Willoughby Spit. The Bay rose 15 feet above normal. Historical records list the following tropical storms as causing significant damage in Virginia: September 1761; October 1761; September 1769; September 1775; October 1783; September 1785; July 1788.
    [Show full text]