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The Saffir-Simpson Scale Category Wind Speed (mph) Expected Damage Devastating damage will occur: Homes with well-built frames may incur major 3 damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or 111-129 mph (major) uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes. Catastrophic damage will occur: Homes with well-built frames can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most 4 130-156 mph trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power (major) poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be 5 destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles >157 mph (major) will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Source: NOAA 2013b Notes: mph = Miles per hour > = Greater than Mean Return Period In evaluating the potential for hazard events of a given magnitude, a mean return period (MRP) is often used. The MRP provides an estimate of the magnitude of an event that may occur within any given year based on past recorded events. MRP is the average period of time, in years, between occurrences of a particular hazard event, equal to the inverse of the annual frequency of exceedance (Dinicola 2009). Figure 5.4.1-2 and Figure 5.4.1-3 show the estimated maximum 3-second gust wind speeds that can be anticipated in the study area associated with the 100- and 500-year MRP events. These peak wind speed projections were generated using Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH) model runs. The estimated hurricane track used for the 100- and 500-year event is also shown. The maximum 3-second gust wind speeds for Dutchess County range from 69 to 75 mph for the 100-year MRP event. The maximum 3-second gust wind speeds for Dutchess County range from 85 to 101 mph for the 500-year MRP event. The associated impacts and losses from these 100-year and 500-year MRP hurricane event model runs are reported in the Vulnerability Assessment. DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-6 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Figure 5.4.1-2. Wind Speeds for the 100-Year Mean Return Period Event Source: HAZUS-MH DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-7 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Figure 5.4.1-3. Wind Speeds for the 500-Year Mean Return Period Event Source: HAZUS-MH DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-8 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Storm Surge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oastal Erosion &RDVWDO HURVLRQ LV PHDVXUHG DV WKH UDWH RI FKDQJH LQ WKH SRVLWLRQ RU KRUL]RQWDO GLVSODFHPHQW RI D VKRUHOLQH RYHU D SHULRG RI WLPH )(0$ $ QXPEHU RI IDFWRUV GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU D FRPPXQLW\ H[KLELWV JUHDWHU ORQJWHUP HURVLRQ RU DFFUHWLRQ x ([SRVXUH WR KLJKHQHUJ\ VWRUP ZDYHV x 6HGLPHQW VL]H DQG FRPSRVLWLRQ RI HURGLQJ FRDVWDO ODQGIRUPV IHHGLQJ DGMDFHQW EHDFKHV x 1HDUVKRUH EDWK\PHWULF YDULDWLRQV ZKLFK GLUHFW ZDYH DSSURDFK x $ORQJVKRUH YDULDWLRQV LQ ZDYH HQHUJ\ DQG VHGLPHQW WUDQVSRUW UDWHV x 5HODWLYH VHD OHYHO ULVH x )UHTXHQF\ DQG VHYHULW\ RI VWRUP HYHQWV x +XPDQ LQWHUIHUHQFH ZLWK VHGLPHQW VXSSO\ HJ UHYHWPHQWV VHDZDOOV MHWWLHV :RRGV +ROH 6HD *UDQW 6XFK HURVLRQ PD\ EH LQWHQVLILHG E\ DFWLYLWLHV VXFK DV ERDW ZDNHV VKRUHOLQH KDUGHQLQJ RU GUHGJLQJ 1DWXUDO UHFRYHU\ DIWHU HURVLYH HSLVRGHV FDQ WDNH PRQWKV RU \HDUV ,I D GXQH RU EHDFK GRHV QRW UHFRYHU TXLFNO\ HQRXJK YLD QDWXUDO SURFHVVHV FRDVWDO DQG XSODQG SURSHUW\ PD\ EH H[SRVHG WR IXUWKHU GDPDJH LQ VXEVHTXHQW HYHQWV &RDVWDO HURVLRQ FDQ FDXVH WKH GHVWUXFWLRQ RI EXLOGLQJV DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH )(0$ Nor’Easter 7KH H[WHQW RI D 1RU¶(DVWHU FDQ EH FODVVLILHG E\ PHWHRURORJLFDO PHDVXUHPHQWV DQG E\ HYDOXDWLQJ LWV VRFLHWDO LPSDFWV 12$$¶V 1&'& LV FXUUHQWO\ SURGXFLQJ WKH 5HJLRQDO 6QRZIDOO ,QGH[ 56, IRU VLJQLILFDQW VQRZVWRUPV WKDW LPSDFW WKH HDVWHUQ WZRWKLUGV RI WKH 86 7KH 56, UDQNV VQRZVWRUP LPSDFWV RQ D VFDOH IURP WR ,W LV EDVHG RQ WKH VSDWLDO H[WHQW RI WKH VWRUP WKH DPRXQW RI VQRZIDOO DQG WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ RI WKH H[WHQW DQG VQRZIDOO WRWDOV ZLWK SRSXODWLRQ EDVHG RQ WKH 86 &HQVXV 7KH 1&'& KDV DQDO\]HG DQG DVVLJQHG 56, YDOXHV WR RYHU VWRUPV VLQFH 12$$1&'& 7DEOH OLVWV WKH ILYH FDWHJRULHV Table 5.4.1-2. 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Loss and impact information could vary depending on the source. Therefore, the accuracy of monetary figures discussed is based only on the available information identified during research for this HMP Update. DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-11 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Table 5.4.1-3. Coastal Hazard Events between 1990 and 2015 FEMA Declaration County Dates of Event Event Type Number Designated? Losses / Impacts This event brought between three and six inches of snow to much of eastern New York State. There were numerous accidents reported across the area. Travel was extremely March 12-15, Blizzard / Nor'Easter EM-3107 Yes difficult in the State and a state of emergency was declared across most of eastern and 1993 central New York State. Dutchess County had approximately $50,000 in damages from this event. Heavy snow fell across southeast New York State causing many power outages across the January 7-9, Nor'Easter / Heavy region and several roofs to collapse. Snowfall totals ranged from 15.5 inches in Ulster DR-1083 Yes 1996 Snow County to 36 inches in Dutchess County. Dutchess County had approximately $80,000 in property damage. The remnants of Hurricane Floyd moved up the east coast of the United States; it brought high winds and heavy rain to eastern New York State. Rainfall totals ranged from three to six inches. Some areas received up to a foot of rain. The rain produced widespread September 16- Remnants of flooding across the region, leading to severe damage and one fatality (in Dutchess County). DR-1296 Yes 17, 1999 Hurricane Floyd Significant flooding was noted on many smaller tributaries including the Esopus, Catskill and Schoharie Creeks. Wind gusts from Floyd ranged from 49 mph to over 60 mph. The rain and strong winds produced massive power outages. Damages to Dutchess County were approximately $1 million. A strong Nor'Easter developed off of Cape Hatteras and slowly moved north along the Atlantic coast. Across eastern New York State, the storm produced a heavy winter mix of November 17, Winter Storm / N/A N/A precipitation and totals ranged from one to six inches. The storm also brought strong winds 2002 Nor'Easter and ice which caused power outages throughout the area. Dutchess County had approximately $25,000 in property damage from this event. Snow began early on Christmas morning in eastern New York State and western New England. The storm picked up intensity as the day went on and it event was characterized December 25-26, Nor'Easter / N/A N/A by a band of very heavy snow which produced snowfall rates of up to four and five inches 2002 Snowstorm an hour. Snowfall totals in Dutchess County ranged from 8.8 inches in Boston Corners (Town of Northeast) to 14 inches in the Village of Tivoli. A heavy mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow fell over eastern New York State. Following this event, a coastal storm developed with periods of heavy snow. The weight of the snow January 3-4, Nor'Easter / N/A N/A combined with the ice, brought down trees and power lines that resulted in power outages 2003 Snowstorm to 15,000 customers. Snowfall totals in Dutchess County ranged from 10.5 inches in Stormville (Town of East Fishkill) to 15.8 inches in Poughkeepsie. An intense coastal storm brought heavy precipitation across the lower Hudson Valley of New York State. At first, the precipitation fell as wet snow, sleet and rain and then Severe Storms and changed to all rain. Precipitation totals ranged from three to eight inches and led to April 16-18, Inland and Coastal DR-1692 Yes widespread flooding across the lower and mid-Hudson Valley region. In Dutchess County, 2007 Flooding small streams and creeks flooded throughout the County. Record flooding occurred on the Wappingers Creek at Wappingers Falls which crested at 7.06 feet above its flood stage of eight feet. Moderate flooding was recorded along Tenmile River at Webatuck which DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-12 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards FEMA Declaration County Dates of Event Event Type Number Designated? Losses / Impacts crested at 11.23 feet. The flooding led to numerous road closures which included large stretches of the Taconic State Parkway in both directions. Additionally, numerous home foundations collapsed near Stormville (Town of East Fishkill). The County had approximately $5.7 million in damages. A major Nor'Easter brought significant snow and blizzard conditions to much of the northeast United States. Bands of heavy snow with snowfall rates of one to three inches an Severe Winter Storm hour occurred across the region. Strong, gusty winds were also associated with this storm. December 26-27, and Snowstorm DR-1957 Yes Wind gusts across the region ranged from 35 to 45 mph with gusts of 50 to 70 mph 2010 (Nor'Easter) reported across southeastern New York State, Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts. Snowfall totals in Dutchess County ranged from nine inches in Salt Point (Town of Poughkeepsie) to 25 inches in the Town of Pine Plains. As Hurricane Irene moved north along the Atlantic coast, it weakened and made its second landfall as a Tropical Storm near Little Egg Inlet along the southeast New Jersey coast. The storm made its third landfall in New York City on August 28th. This storm brought sustained winds, heavy rain, destructive storm surge and two confirmed tornadoes. Heavy rainfall resulted in widespread moderate flooding across the area. Seven deaths resulted from Irene. At least 600,000 people were ordered to evacuate their homes from storm surge and inland flooding. Widespread power outages of up to one week followed the storm. The strong winds from Irene pushed a three to five foot storm surge of water along western Long Island South, New York Harbor, the southern and eastern bays of Long August 26 – Island, and southern bays of New York City. This resulted in moderate to major coastal September 5, Hurricane Irene DR-4020 Yes flooding, wave damage and erosion along the coast, with heavy damage to public beaches 2011 and other public and private facilities. In Dutchess County, flash flooding was reported in several locations. Numerous roads and bridges were closed or damaged due to flooding and downed trees. There were mandatory evacuations in the County as well. Record flooding was recorded on the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie and major flooding occurred on the Hoosic River at Eagle Bridge, Hudson River at Troy and on Wappingers Creek at Wappingers Falls. Moderate flooding was reported on Tenmile River at Webatuck (Town of Amenia) and minor flooding on the Hudson River at Waterford. Flooding occurred in the Town of Rhinebeck along Route 9G. Power outages in Dutchess County impacted 25,000 customers. An early season Nor'Easter brought heavy, wet snow to the south and east of the Capital District. Snowfall rates were as high as two to four inches per hour. Power outages October 29-30, Nor'Easter / occurred due to downed trees and wires. In Dutchess County, snowfall totals ranged from N/A N/A 2011 Snowstorm 4.8 inches in Salt Point (Town of Poughkeepsie) to 21.6 inches in the Village of Millbrook. More than 115,000 homes and businesses were without power in Dutchess and Ulster Counties. October 27 – Hurricane Sandy moved up the east coast of the United States during the last week of DR-4085 / EM- November 8, Hurricane Sandy No / Yes October 2012. As the storm made landfall in southern New Jersey, bands of rain moved 3351 2012 across eastern New York State. Rainfall totals in this part of the State were minimal and DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-13 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards FEMA Declaration County Dates of Event Event Type Number Designated? Losses / Impacts did not cause any flooding. The storm did bring strong and gusty winds to the area, bringing down trees and power lines across the region. Wind gusts ranged from 40 to 60 mph. In Dutchess County, wind speeds reached 47 mph. Flooding in Dutchess County occurred along the Hudson River throughout the County. Roads were closed throughout the region. There were numerous debris lines along the Poughkeepsie Waterfront on the Hudson River due to tidal flooding. Record flooding occurred on the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie as the River reached 9.54 feet. The surge of water moved all the way to the City of Albany. Water reached the deck of the Icehouse Restaurant (City of Poughkeepsie). Two to four feet of water reached inside the restaurant, based on water marks. An early season Nor'Easter impacted the region a week after Hurricane Sandy struck. Most November 7-8, of the precipitation from the storm fell as snow across the mid-Hudson Valley region. Nor'Easter N/A N/A 2012 Approximately three to six inches of snow fell in Dutchess County. In addition to the snow, strong and gusty winds of up to 35 mph impacted the County. An early season winter storm impacted eastern New York State during Thanksgiving. The storm began the morning of the 26th and once the snow began, it increased in intensity, falling at rates at or greater than one inch per hour. Temperatures dropped to or below freezing across the entire region. There were heavy bands of snow occurring in some November 26- Nor'Easter / locations, especially across the Taconics, Mohawk Valley and southeastern Adirondacks. DR-4204 No 27, 2014 Snowstorm Snowfall totals ranged from six to 12 inches, with up to 15 inches in the southeastern Adirondacks. The weight of the snow caused power outages in the area, especially across the mid-Hudson Valley. There were up to 32,000 customers without power in Dutchess and Ulster Counties. Snowfall totals in Dutchess County ranged from five inches in the Town of Hyde Park to 12 inches in the Town of Pine Plains. Sources: NYSDEC 2015; FEMA 2015; NYS HMP 2014; NOAA-NCDC 2015; SPC 2015 FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency HMP Hazard Mitigation Plan NCDC National Climatic Data Center NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NYS New York State NYSDEC New York State Department of Environmental Conservation SPC Storm Prediction Center DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-14 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards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The amount of rain fall in a 100-year event is projected to increase, while the number of years between such storms (return period) is projected to decrease. Rainstorms will become more severe and more frequent (NYSERDA, 2011). Figure 5.4.1-4. 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Description of Damage Categories Missile Roof Window Impacts Roof Wall Cover Door Roof on Structure Structure Qualitative Damage Description Failure Failures Deck Walls Failure Failure 1R 'DPDJH RU 9HU\ 0LQRU 'DPDJH 1R 1R 1R 1R 1R DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-20 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Missile Roof Window Impacts Roof Wall Cover Door Roof on Structure Structure Qualitative Damage Description Failure Failures Deck Walls Failure Failure Little or no visible damage from the outside. No broken windows, or failed roof deck. Minimal loss of roof over, with no or very Limited water penetration. Minor Damage One Maximum of one broken window, door or window, garage door. Moderate roof cover loss that >2% and door, or No <5 impacts No No can be covered to prevent additional water ≤15% garage entering the building. Marks or dents on walls door requiring painting or patching for repair. failure Moderate Damage > one and Major roof cover damage, moderate window ≤ Typically >15% and 1 to 3 breakage. Minor roof sheathing failure. Some the larger 5 to 10 No No ≤50% panels resulting damage to interior of building from of impacts water. 20% & 3 Severe Damage > the larger >3 Typically Major window damage or roof sheathing loss. >50% of 20% & 3 and 10 to 20 No No Major roof cover loss. Extensive damage to and ≤50% ≤25% impacts interior from water. Destruction Typically Complete roof failure and/or, failure of wall Typically >50% >25% >20 Yes Yes frame. Loss of more than 50% of roof >50% impacts sheathing. Source: HAZUS-MH Hurricane Technical Manual Tables 5.4.7-7 and 5.4.7-8 summarizes the building value (structure only) damage estimated for the 100- and 500-year MRP hurricane wind-only events. Damage estimates are reported for the County’s probabilistic HAZUS-MH model scenarios. The data shown indicates total losses associated with wind damage to building structure. DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-21 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Table 5.4.1-7. Estimated Building Value (Structure Only) Damaged by the 100-Year and 500-Year MRP Hurricane-Related Winds Percent of Total Building Replacement Estimated Total Damages* Cost Value Municipality Annualized Annualized Loss 100-Year 500-Year 100-Year 500-Year Total RCV (Structure Only) Loss Amenia (T) $1,173,643,243 $127,300 $1,460,700 $11,034,383 <1% <1% <1% Beacon (C) $2,064,232,682 $139,554 $1,718,781 $11,660,170 <1% <1% <1% Beekman (T) $2,449,459,966 $320,715 $3,629,395 $27,631,905 <1% <1% 1.1% Clinton (T) $1,341,651,069 $86,966 $1,431,929 $7,294,404 <1% <1% <1% Dover (T) $1,677,602,978 $182,167 $1,966,069 $15,685,142 <1% <1% <1% East Fishkill (T) $6,390,057,444 $629,345 $7,704,555 $52,531,633 <1% <1% <1% Fishkill (T) $3,949,240,855 $242,305 $2,889,202 $19,967,505 <1% <1% <1% Fishkill (V) $402,859,104 $31,605 $242,581 $2,370,887 <1% <1% <1% Hyde Park (T) $3,781,227,152 $182,746 $2,766,139 $15,742,735 <1% <1% <1% LaGrange (T) $3,728,775,229 $309,935 $4,209,797 $24,971,423 <1% <1% <1% Milan (T) $791,142,073 $39,656 $658,137 $3,564,436 <1% <1% <1% Millbrook (V) $430,362,334 $32,764 $349,132 $2,525,406 <1% <1% <1% Millerton (V) $200,740,766 $15,903 $184,774 $1,280,923 <1% <1% <1% Northeast (T) $872,302,173 $90,719 $1,045,959 $7,298,210 <1% <1% <1% Pawling (T) $1,629,501,263 $200,109 $1,989,489 $17,785,873 <1% <1% 1.1% Pawling (V) $462,892,825 $59,886 $508,048 $5,388,181 <1% <1% 1.2% Pine Plains (T) $800,637,873 $63,931 $917,084 $5,065,033 <1% <1% <1% Pleasant Valley (T) $1,982,280,592 $146,749 $2,122,215 $12,260,505 <1% <1% <1% Poughkeepsie (C) $3,982,167,290 $192,268 $2,539,054 $16,784,333 <1% <1% <1% Poughkeepsie (T) $9,077,634,548 $486,618 $6,214,032 $39,439,100 <1% <1% <1% Red Hook (T) $1,967,030,033 $88,989 $1,327,375 $7,177,551 <1% <1% <1% Red Hook (V) $465,279,056 $17,407 $240,482 $1,340,301 <1% <1% <1% Rhinebeck (T) $1,564,600,397 $67,718 $1,108,914 $6,022,659 <1% <1% <1% Rhinebeck (V) $699,038,933 $24,597 $381,533 $2,135,542 <1% <1% <1% Stanford (T) $1,361,285,639 $113,565 $1,641,729 $9,364,347 <1% <1% <1% Tivoli (V) $222,466,402 $10,081 $153,178 $837,484 <1% <1% <1% Union Vale (T) $1,311,718,689 $137,152 $1,530,495 $11,371,088 <1% <1% <1% DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-22 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Percent of Total Building Replacement Estimated Total Damages* Cost Value Municipality Annualized Annualized Loss 100-Year 500-Year 100-Year 500-Year Total RCV (Structure Only) Loss Wappinger (T) $3,652,165,422 $278,214 $3,722,829 $22,535,723 <1% <1% <1% Wappinger Falls (V) $689,593,231 $38,816 $438,918 $3,196,366 <1% <1% <1% Washington (T) $1,392,014,229 $131,139 $1,608,902 $10,483,385 <1% <1% <1% Dutchess County $60,513,603,490 $4,488,919 $56,701,424 $374,746,634 <1% <1% <1% (TOTAL) Source: HAZUS-MH 2.1; *The Total Damages column represents the sum of damages for all occupancy classes (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, educational, religious and government) based on estimated replacement cost value. Table 5.4.1-8. Estimated Residential and Commercial Building Value (Structure Only) Damaged by the 100-Year and 500-Year MRP Hurricane- Related Winds Estimated Residential Estimated Commercial Municipality Damage Damage Total RCV (Structure Only) 100-Year 500-Year 100-Year 500-Year Amenia (T) $1,173,643,243 $1,403,390 $9,639,517 $31,436 $392,833 Beacon (C) $2,064,232,682 $1,662,727 $10,907,701 $27,001 $327,132 Beekman (T) $2,449,459,966 $3,576,642 $26,252,064 $21,504 $474,046 Clinton (T) $1,341,651,069 $1,422,961 $7,142,827 $3,336 $31,472 Dover (T) $1,677,602,978 $1,902,699 $13,878,341 $32,560 $704,867 East Fishkill (T) $6,390,057,444 $7,571,996 $48,083,774 $44,140 $745,065 Fishkill (T) $3,949,240,855 $2,757,040 $18,355,846 $105,918 $1,270,094 Fishkill (V) $402,859,104 $198,479 $1,644,919 $41,327 $682,884 Hyde Park (T) $3,781,227,152 $2,687,976 $15,212,783 $34,462 $226,018 LaGrange (T) $3,728,775,229 $4,129,261 $23,903,188 $46,204 $553,636 Milan (T) $791,142,073 $653,052 $3,482,799 $1,949 $12,473 Millbrook (V) $430,362,334 $327,499 $2,138,543 $6,866 $97,959 Millerton (V) $200,740,766 $177,772 $1,150,644 $4,299 $61,197 Northeast (T) $872,302,173 $1,008,816 $6,073,227 $6,102 $68,713 Pawling (T) $1,629,501,263 $1,961,869 $16,562,044 $16,382 $464,950 Pawling (V) $462,892,825 $481,694 $4,437,245 $3,783 $129,405 DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-23 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Estimated Residential Estimated Commercial Municipality Damage Damage Total RCV (Structure Only) 100-Year 500-Year 100-Year 500-Year Pine Plains (T) $800,637,873 $893,630 $4,717,509 $12,818 $169,527 Pleasant Valley (T) $1,982,280,592 $2,087,311 $11,860,161 $20,016 $204,983 Poughkeepsie (C) $3,982,167,290 $2,426,146 $15,834,135 $71,269 $609,892 Poughkeepsie (T) $9,077,634,548 $5,871,126 $36,083,123 $178,812 $1,593,071 Red Hook (T) $1,967,030,033 $1,286,381 $6,911,839 $8,815 $49,499 Red Hook (V) $465,279,056 $225,088 $1,240,862 $6,496 $38,215 Rhinebeck (T) $1,564,600,397 $1,087,927 $5,841,263 $12,317 $66,613 Rhinebeck (V) $699,038,933 $359,603 $2,009,099 $17,229 $98,595 Stanford (T) $1,361,285,639 $1,620,200 $8,988,388 $3,429 $25,640 Tivoli (V) $222,466,402 $151,917 $831,486 $526 $2,394 Union Vale (T) $1,311,718,689 $1,492,054 $10,391,857 $9,198 $165,021 Wappinger (T) $3,652,165,422 $3,650,971 $21,698,397 $49,794 $574,825 Wappinger Falls (V) $689,593,231 $412,775 $2,897,551 $17,026 $155,310 Washington (T) $1,392,014,229 $1,577,042 $9,556,635 $8,319 $118,779 Dutchess County (TOTAL) $60,513,603,490 $55,066,043 $347,727,769 $843,333 $10,115,106 Source: HAZUS-MH 2.1 DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-24 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards The total damage to buildings (structure only) for all occupancy types across the County is estimated to be $56.7 million for the 100-year MRP wind-only event, and approximately $375 million for the 500-year MRP wind- only event. The majority of these losses are to the residential building category. Because of differences in building construction, residential structures are generally more susceptible to wind damage than commercial and industrial structures. The damage counts include buildings damaged at all severity levels from minor damage to total destruction. Total dollar damage reflects the overall impact to buildings at an aggregate level. DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-25 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Figure 5.4.1-5. Density of Losses for Structures (All Occupancies) for the County 100-Year MRP Hurricane (Wind-Only) Event Source: HAZUS-MH 2.1 DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-26 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Figure 5.4.1-6. Density of Losses for Structures (All Occupancies) for the County 500-Year MRP Hurricane (Wind-Only) Event Source: HAZUS-MH 2.1 DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-27 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Impact on Critical Facilities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Estimated Impacts to Critical Facilities for the 500-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane-Related Winds Impact on Economy +XUULFDQHV DQG WURSLFDO VWRUPV DOVR LPSDFW WKH HFRQRP\ LQFOXGLQJ ORVV RI EXVLQHVV IXQFWLRQ HJ WRXULVP UHFUHDWLRQ GDPDJH WR LQYHQWRU\ UHORFDWLRQ FRVWV ZDJH ORVV DQG UHQWDO ORVV GXH WR WKH UHSDLUUHSODFHPHQW RI EXLOGLQJV +$=860+ HVWLPDWHV WKH WRWDO HFRQRPLF ORVV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK HDFK VWRUP VFHQDULR GLUHFW EXLOGLQJ ORVVHV DQG EXVLQHVV LQWHUUXSWLRQ ORVVHV 'LUHFW EXLOGLQJ ORVVHV DUH WKH HVWLPDWHG FRVWV WR UHSDLU RU UHSODFH WKH GDPDJH FDXVHG WR WKH EXLOGLQJ 7KLV LV UHSRUWHG LQ WKH ³,PSDFW RQ *HQHUDO %XLOGLQJ 6WRFN´ VXEVHFWLRQ GLVFXVVHG HDUOLHU %XVLQHVV LQWHUUXSWLRQ ORVVHV DUH WKH ORVVHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH LQDELOLW\ WR RSHUDWH D EXVLQHVV EHFDXVH RI WKH ZLQG GDPDJH VXVWDLQHG GXULQJ WKH VWRUP RU WKH WHPSRUDU\ OLYLQJ H[SHQVHV IRU WKRVH GLVSODFHG IURP WKHLU KRPH EHFDXVH RI WKH HYHQW )RU WKH \HDU 053 ZLQG HYHQW +$=860+ HVWLPDWHV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ WKRXVDQG LQ EXVLQHVV LQWHUUXSWLRQ FRVWV LQFRPH ORVV UHORFDWLRQ FRVWV UHQWDO FRVWV DQG ORVW ZDJHV )RU WKH \HDU 053 ZLQG RQO\ HYHQW DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-28 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards HAZUS-MH estimates approximately $13.9 million in business interruption losses for the County which includes loss of income, relocation costs, rental costs and lost wages. Impacts to transportation lifelines affect both short-term (e.g., evacuation activities) and long-term (e.g., day-to- day commuting and goods transport) transportation needs. Utility infrastructure (power lines, gas lines, electrical systems) could suffer damage and impacts can result in the loss of power, which can impact business operations and can impact heating or cooling provision to the population. HAZUS-MH 2.1 also estimates the amount of debris that may be produced a result of the 100- and 500-year MRP wind events. Table 5.4.1-11 estimates the debris produced. Because the estimated debris production does not include flooding, this is likely a conservative estimate and may be higher if multiple impacts occur. According to the HAZUS-MH Hurricane User Manual: ‘The Eligible Tree Debris columns provide estimates of the weight and volume of downed trees that would likely be collected and disposed at public expense. As discussed in Chapter 12 of the HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Technical Manual, the eligible tree debris estimates produced by the Hurricane Model tend to underestimate reported volumes of debris brought to landfills for a number of events that have occurred over the past several years. This indicates that that there may be other sources of vegetative and non-vegetative debris that are not currently being modeled in HAZUS. For landfill estimation purposes, it is recommended that the HAZUS debris volume estimate be treated as an approximate lower bound. Based on actual reported debris volumes, it is recommended that the HAZUS results be multiplied by three to obtain an approximate upper bound estimate. It is also important to note that the Hurricane Model assumes a bulking factor of 10 cubic yards per ton of tree debris. If the debris is chipped prior to transport or disposal, a bulking factor of 4 is recommended. Thus, for chipped debris, the eligible tree debris volume should be multiplied by 0.4’. Table 5.4.1-11. Debris Production for 100- and 500-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane-Related Winds Eligible Tree Brick and Wood Concrete and Steel Tree Volume (tons) (tons) (tons) (cubic yards) 100 500 100 500 100 500 100 500 Municipality Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Amenia (T) 60 817 0 2 2,427 20,944 172 1,384 Beacon (C) 48 900 0 1 250 1,820 122 975 Beekman (T) 100 1,816 0 7 1,239 15,011 267 2,904 Clinton (T) 21 380 0 0 845 11,525 71 909 Dover (T) 79 1,271 0 2 1,658 26,180 246 2,438 East Fishkill (T) 251 3,302 0 7 1,898 24,008 456 5,432 Fishkill (T) 114 1,528 0 0 495 9,878 155 1,979 Fishkill (V) 25 300 0 0 63 403 30 207 Hyde Park (T) 52 955 0 0 516 10,590 124 2,503 LaGrange (T) 125 1,543 0 0 994 14,183 201 2,823 Milan (T) 8 189 0 0 383 10,481 21 638 Millbrook (V) 16 205 0 0 105 781 20 256 Millerton (V) 4 113 0 0 25 252 19 172 Northeast (T) 36 519 0 1 1,440 16,236 85 813 Pawling (T) 59 1,222 0 3 780 19,482 81 1,590 Pawling (V) 21 437 0 1 117 1,270 49 546 DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-29 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Eligible Tree Brick and Wood Concrete and Steel Tree Volume (tons) (tons) (tons) (cubic yards) 100 500 100 500 100 500 100 500 Municipality Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year 3LQH 3ODLQV 7 3OHDVDQW 9DOOH\ 7 3RXJKNHHSVLH & 3RXJKNHHSVLH 7 5HG +RRN 7 5HG +RRN 9 5KLQHEHFN 7 5KLQHEHFN 9 6WDQIRUG 7 7LYROL 9 8QLRQ 9DOH 7 :DSSLQJHU 7 :DSSLQJHU )DOOV 9 :DVKLQJWRQ 7 'XWFKHVV &RXQW\ 727$/ Source: HAZUS-MH 2.1 Change of Vulnerability 2YHUDOO WKH HQWLUH &RXQW\ UHPDLQV YXOQHUDEOH WR FRDVWDO VWRUPV $ GDPDJH HVWLPDWH ZDV QRW FRQGXFWHG DV SDUW RI WKH +03 DQG (DVWHUQ 'XWFKHVV $+03 ULVN DVVHVVPHQW 7KH XSGDWHG YXOQHUDELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQW SURYLGHV D PRUH FXUUHQW ULVN DVVHVVPHQW DQG DQDO\VLV IRU WKH &RXQW\ Effect of Climate Change on Vulnerability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µ&OLPDWH &KDQJH ,PSDFWV¶ VXEVHFWLRQ HDUOLHU LQ WKLV SURILOH IRU PRUH GHWDLOV RQ FOLPDWH FKDQJH SHUWDLQLQJ WR 1HZ Future Growth and Development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azard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-30 December 2015 Section 5.4.1: Risk Assessment – Coastal Hazards Additional Data and Next Steps 2YHU WLPH 'XWFKHVV &RXQW\ ZLOO REWDLQ DGGLWLRQDO GDWD WR VXSSRUW WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKLV KD]DUG 'DWD WKDW ZLOO VXSSRUW WKH DQDO\VLV ZRXOG LQFOXGH DGGLWLRQDO GHWDLO RQ SDVW KD]DUG HYHQWV DQG LPSDFWV VSHFLILF EXLOGLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ VXFK DV GHWDLOV RQ SURWHFWLYH IHDWXUHV IRU H[DPSOH KXUULFDQH VWUDSV ,Q DGGLWLRQ LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ SDUWLFXODU EXLOGLQJV RU LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DJH RU \HDU EXLOW ZRXOG EH KHOSIXO LQ IXWXUH DQDO\VLV RI WKLV KD]DUG DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.1-31 December 2015