Cognitive Debiasing Strategies for the Emergency Department
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The Status Quo Bias and Decisions to Withdraw Life-Sustaining Treatment
HUMANITIES | MEDICINE AND SOCIETY The status quo bias and decisions to withdraw life-sustaining treatment n Cite as: CMAJ 2018 March 5;190:E265-7. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.171005 t’s not uncommon for physicians and impasse. One factor that hasn’t been host of psychological phenomena that surrogate decision-makers to disagree studied yet is the role that cognitive cause people to make irrational deci- about life-sustaining treatment for biases might play in surrogate decision- sions, referred to as “cognitive biases.” Iincapacitated patients. Several studies making regarding withdrawal of life- One cognitive bias that is particularly show physicians perceive that nonbenefi- sustaining treatment. Understanding the worth exploring in the context of surrogate cial treatment is provided quite frequently role that these biases might play may decisions regarding life-sustaining treat- in their intensive care units. Palda and col- help improve communication between ment is the status quo bias. This bias, a leagues,1 for example, found that 87% of clinicians and surrogates when these con- decision-maker’s preference for the cur- physicians believed that futile treatment flicts arise. rent state of affairs,3 has been shown to had been provided in their ICU within the influence decision-making in a wide array previous year. (The authors in this study Status quo bias of contexts. For example, it has been cited equated “futile” with “nonbeneficial,” The classic model of human decision- as a mechanism to explain patient inertia defined as a treatment “that offers no rea- making is the rational choice or “rational (why patients have difficulty changing sonable hope of recovery or improvement, actor” model, the view that human beings their behaviour to improve their health), or because the patient is permanently will choose the option that has the best low organ-donation rates, low retirement- unable to experience any benefit.”) chance of satisfying their preferences. -
Avoiding the Conjunction Fallacy: Who Can Take a Hint?
Avoiding the conjunction fallacy: Who can take a hint? Simon Klein Spring 2017 Master’s thesis, 30 ECTS Master’s programme in Cognitive Science, 120 ECTS Supervisor: Linnea Karlsson Wirebring Acknowledgments: The author would like to thank the participants for enduring the test session with challenging questions and thereby making the study possible, his supervisor Linnea Karlsson Wirebring for invaluable guidance and good questions during the thesis work, and his fiancée Amanda Arnö for much needed mental support during the entire process. 2 AVOIDING THE CONJUNCTION FALLACY: WHO CAN TAKE A HINT? Simon Klein Humans repeatedly commit the so called “conjunction fallacy”, erroneously judging the probability of two events occurring together as higher than the probability of one of the events. Certain hints have been shown to mitigate this tendency. The present thesis investigated the relations between three psychological factors and performance on conjunction tasks after reading such a hint. The factors represent the understanding of probability and statistics (statistical numeracy), the ability to resist intuitive but incorrect conclusions (cognitive reflection), and the willingness to engage in, and enjoyment of, analytical thinking (need-for-cognition). Participants (n = 50) answered 30 short conjunction tasks and three psychological scales. A bimodal response distribution motivated dichotomization of performance scores. Need-for-cognition was significantly, positively correlated with performance, while numeracy and cognitive reflection were not. The results suggest that the willingness to engage in, and enjoyment of, analytical thinking plays an important role for the capacity to avoid the conjunction fallacy after taking a hint. The hint further seems to neutralize differences in performance otherwise predicted by statistical numeracy and cognitive reflection. -
Cognitive Bias Mitigation: How to Make Decision-Making More Rational?
Cognitive Bias Mitigation: How to make decision-making more rational? Abstract Cognitive biases distort judgement and adversely impact decision-making, which results in economic inefficiencies. Initial attempts to mitigate these biases met with little success. However, recent studies which used computer games and educational videos to train people to avoid biases (Clegg et al., 2014; Morewedge et al., 2015) showed that this form of training reduced selected cognitive biases by 30 %. In this work I report results of an experiment which investigated the debiasing effects of training on confirmation bias. The debiasing training took the form of a short video which contained information about confirmation bias, its impact on judgement, and mitigation strategies. The results show that participants exhibited confirmation bias both in the selection and processing of information, and that debiasing training effectively decreased the level of confirmation bias by 33 % at the 5% significance level. Key words: Behavioural economics, cognitive bias, confirmation bias, cognitive bias mitigation, confirmation bias mitigation, debiasing JEL classification: D03, D81, Y80 1 Introduction Empirical research has documented a panoply of cognitive biases which impair human judgement and make people depart systematically from models of rational behaviour (Gilovich et al., 2002; Kahneman, 2011; Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Pohl, 2004). Besides distorted decision-making and judgement in the areas of medicine, law, and military (Nickerson, 1998), cognitive biases can also lead to economic inefficiencies. Slovic et al. (1977) point out how they distort insurance purchases, Hyman Minsky (1982) partly blames psychological factors for economic cycles. Shefrin (2010) argues that confirmation bias and some other cognitive biases were among the significant factors leading to the global financial crisis which broke out in 2008. -
Graphical Techniques in Debiasing: an Exploratory Study
GRAPHICAL TECHNIQUES IN DEBIASING: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY by S. Bhasker Information Systems Department Leonard N. Stern School of Business New York University New York, New York 10006 and A. Kumaraswamy Management Department Leonard N. Stern School of Business New York University New York, NY 10006 October, 1990 Center for Research on Information Systems Information Systems Department Leonard N. Stern School of Business New York University Working Paper Series STERN IS-90-19 Forthcoming in the Proceedings of the 1991 Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences Center for Digital Economy Research Stem School of Business IVorking Paper IS-90-19 Center for Digital Economy Research Stem School of Business IVorking Paper IS-90-19 2 Abstract Base rate and conjunction fallacies are consistent biases that influence decision making involving probability judgments. We develop simple graphical techniques and test their eflcacy in correcting for these biases. Preliminary results suggest that graphical techniques help to overcome these biases and improve decision making. We examine the implications of incorporating these simple techniques in Executive Information Systems. Introduction Today, senior executives operate in highly uncertain environments. They have to collect, process and analyze a deluge of information - most of it ambiguous. But, their limited information acquiring and processing capabilities constrain them in this task [25]. Increasingly, executives rely on executive information/support systems for various purposes like strategic scanning of their business environments, internal monitoring of their businesses, analysis of data available from various internal and external sources, and communications [5,19,32]. However, executive information systems are, at best, support tools. Executives still rely on their mental or cognitive models of their businesses and environments and develop heuristics to simplify decision problems [10,16,25]. -
Cognitive Biases in Economic Decisions – Three Essays on the Impact of Debiasing
TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITÄT MÜNCHEN Lehrstuhl für Betriebswirtschaftslehre – Strategie und Organisation Univ.-Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe Cognitive biases in economic decisions – three essays on the impact of debiasing Christoph Martin Gerald Döbrich Abdruck der von der Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Technischen Universität München zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Dr. rer. pol.) genehmigten Dissertation. Vorsitzender: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Gunther Friedl Prüfer der Dissertation: 1. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe 2. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Dr. Holger Patzelt Die Dissertation wurde am 28.11.2012 bei der Technischen Universität München eingereicht und durch die Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften am 15.12.2012 angenommen. Acknowledgments II Acknowledgments Numerous people have contributed to the development and successful completion of this dissertation. First of all, I would like to thank my supervisor Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe for her continuous support, all the constructive discussions, and her enthusiasm concerning my dissertation project. Her challenging questions and new ideas always helped me to improve my work. My sincere thanks also go to Prof. Dr. Matthias Spörrle for his continuous support of my work and his valuable feedback for the articles building this dissertation. Moreover, I am grateful to Prof. Dr. Dr. Holger Patzelt for acting as the second advisor for this thesis and Professor Dr. Gunther Friedl for leading the examination board. This dissertation would not have been possible without the financial support of the Elite Network of Bavaria. I am very thankful for the financial support over two years which allowed me to pursue my studies in a focused and efficient manner. Many colleagues at the Chair for Strategy and Organization of Technische Universität München have supported me during the completion of this thesis. -
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic As Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic as Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test Edward J. N. Stupple ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Maggie Gale ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Christopher R. Richmond ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Abstract Most participants respond that the answer is 10 cents; however, a slower and more analytic approach to the The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) was devised to measure problem reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents. the inhibition of heuristic responses to favour analytic ones. The CRT has been a spectacular success, attracting more Toplak, West and Stanovich (2011) demonstrated that the than 100 citations in 2012 alone (Scopus). This may be in CRT was a powerful predictor of heuristics and biases task part due to the ease of administration; with only three items performance - proposing it as a metric of the cognitive miserliness central to dual process theories of thinking. This and no requirement for expensive equipment, the practical thesis was examined using reasoning response-times, advantages are considerable. There have, moreover, been normative responses from two reasoning tasks and working numerous correlates of the CRT demonstrated, from a wide memory capacity (WMC) to predict individual differences in range of tasks in the heuristics and biases literature (Toplak performance on the CRT. These data offered limited support et al., 2011) to risk aversion and SAT scores (Frederick, for the view of miserliness as the primary factor in the CRT. -
Emotional Reasoning and Parent-Based Reasoning in Normal Children
Morren, M., Muris, P., Kindt, M. Emotional reasoning and parent-based reasoning in normal children. Child Psychiatry and Human Development: 35, 2004, nr. 1, p. 3-20 Postprint Version 1.0 Journal website http://www.springerlink.com/content/105587/ Pubmed link http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dop t=Abstract&list_uids=15626322&query_hl=45&itool=pubmed_docsum DOI 10.1023/B:CHUD.0000039317.50547.e3 Address correspondence to M. Morren, Department of Medical, Clinical, and Experimental Psychology, Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands; e-mail: [email protected]. Emotional Reasoning and Parent-based Reasoning in Normal Children MATTIJN MORREN, MSC; PETER MURIS, PHD; MEREL KINDT, PHD DEPARTMENT OF MEDICAL, CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY, MAASTRICHT UNIVERSITY, THE NETHERLANDS ABSTRACT: A previous study by Muris, Merckelbach, and Van Spauwen1 demonstrated that children display emotional reasoning irrespective of their anxiety levels. That is, when estimating whether a situation is dangerous, children not only rely on objective danger information but also on their own anxiety-response. The present study further examined emotional reasoning in children aged 7–13 years (N =508). In addition, it was investigated whether children also show parent-based reasoning, which can be defined as the tendency to rely on anxiety-responses that can be observed in parents. Children completed self-report questionnaires of anxiety, depression, and emotional and parent-based reasoning. Evidence was found for both emotional and parent-based reasoning effects. More specifically, children’s danger ratings were not only affected by objective danger information, but also by anxiety-response information in both objective danger and safety stories. -
Dunning–Kruger Effect - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia
Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect Dunning–Kruger effect From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.[1] Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others".[2] Contents 1 Proposal 2 Supporting studies 3 Awards 4 Historical references 5 See also 6 References Proposal The phenomenon was first tested in a series of experiments published in 1999 by David Dunning and Justin Kruger of the Department of Psychology, Cornell University.[2][3] They noted earlier studies suggesting that ignorance of standards of performance is behind a great deal of incompetence. This pattern was seen in studies of skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis. Dunning and Kruger proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will: 1. tend to overestimate their own level of skill; 2. fail to recognize genuine skill in others; 3. fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy; 4. recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, if they are exposed to training for that skill. Dunning has since drawn an analogy ("the anosognosia of everyday life")[1][4] with a condition in which a person who suffers a physical disability because of brain injury seems unaware of or denies the existence of the disability, even for dramatic impairments such as blindness or paralysis. -
The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Management Papers Wharton Faculty Research 12-2008 The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection Philip E. Tetlock University of Pennsylvania Gregory Mitchell Terry L. Murray Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/mgmt_papers Part of the Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons Recommended Citation Tetlock, P. E., Mitchell, G., & Murray, T. L. (2008). The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection. Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 1 (4), 439-443. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1754-9434.2008.00084.x This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/mgmt_papers/32 For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection Disciplines Business Administration, Management, and Operations This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/mgmt_papers/32 1 The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Over-Correction Philip E. Tetlock, * Gregory Mitchell, ** and Terry L. Murray *** Introduction This commentary advances two interrelated scientific arguments. First, we endorse Landy's (2008) concerns about the insufficient emphasis placed on individuating information by scholars eager to import social-cognition work on stereotyping into employment law. Building on Landy’s analysis, we emphasize that greater attention needs to be given to the power of accountability and teamwork incentives to motivate personnel decision-makers to seek and utilize individuating information that is predictive of job-relevant behavior. Second, we note how easy it is for exchanges between proponents and skeptics of unconscious stereotyping to lead to ideological stalemates. -
Ilidigital Master Anton 2.Indd
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How Cognitive Bias Undermines Value Creation in Life Sciences M&A
❚ DEAL-MAKING In Vivo Pharma intelligence | How Cognitive Bias Undermines Value Creation In Life Sciences M&A Life sciences mergers and acquisitions are typically based on perceived future value rather than objective financial parameters, but the cognitive biases inherent in subjective assessments can derail deals. Executives need to take emotion out of the equation and rely on relevant data to craft successful transactions. Shutterstock: enzozo Shutterstock: BY ODED BEN-JOSEPH erger and acquisition transactions play a central role in the life sci- ences sector and are the catalyst for growth and transformation, Executives who evaluate their prospects driving innovation from the laboratory all the way to the patient. As I based on a narrow, internally focused discussed in my August 2016 article, “Where the Bodies Lie” (Nature view relying on limited information and Biotechnology, 34, 909–911), life sciences companies often fall victim personal experience – rather than by to recurring misconceptions that lead to unnecessary failure. consulting the statistics of similar cases M These failures often hinge upon management’s misunderstanding of the funda- – are prone to overestimate both their chances and degree of success. mentals of market and transactional dynamics. In particular, cognitive biases play a critical role, often leading to mistakes that are predictable and systematic. These biases disproportionally hinder the life sciences sector where, unlike other sectors, objective This tendency to think narrowly about transaction strategies leads to a and measurable financial parameters such as revenue, earnings and margins play a number of pervasive and severe biases minor role in determining company value as compared with scientific and clinical data. -
Mitigating the Attraction Effect with Visualizations Evanthia Dimara, Gilles Bailly, Anastasia Bezerianos, Steven Franconeri
Mitigating the Attraction Effect with Visualizations Evanthia Dimara, Gilles Bailly, Anastasia Bezerianos, Steven Franconeri To cite this version: Evanthia Dimara, Gilles Bailly, Anastasia Bezerianos, Steven Franconeri. Mitigating the Attrac- tion Effect with Visualizations. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, Insti- tute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2019, TVCG 2019 (InfoVis 2018), 25 (1), pp.850 - 860. 10.1109/TVCG.2018.2865233. hal-01845004v2 HAL Id: hal-01845004 https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01845004v2 Submitted on 22 Aug 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. This article has been accepted for publication in a future issue of this journal, but has not been fully edited. Content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/TVCG.2018.2865233, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics Mitigating the Attraction Effect with Visualizations Evanthia Dimara, Gilles Bailly, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Steven Franconeri Abstract—Human decisions are prone to biases, and this is no less true for decisions made within data visualizations. Bias mitigation strategies often focus on the person, by educating people about their biases, typically with little success. We focus instead on the system, presenting the first evidence that altering the design of an interactive visualization tool can mitigate a strong bias – the attraction effect.