Harbour Australasian Equity Focus Fund Monthly Report - July 2021
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Harbour Australasian Equity Focus Fund Monthly Report - July 2021 Fund Performance Fund Market Value $163,270,680 Portfolio performance was below benchmark for the month. The NZ market fell over the month as COVID-19 Since 1 month 3 months 1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) inception mobility restrictions hit travel & tourism stocks and as a2 (pa) continued to slide. Resource stock strength supported the Australian market. Strong returns from structural growth Fund -0.81% 2.57% 24.62% 13.64% 16.41% 15.96% stocks Mainfreight, Mineral Resources and IDP Education boosted portfolio returns. But weakness in Afterpay, Benchmark -0.18% 1.86% 17.49% 11.16% 11.46% 11.66% Kathmandu and Summerset detracted from portfolio Returns are gross of taxes and fees and include imputation credits. Inception: 10 April 2014. returns. Benchmark: 50% S&P/NZX 50 and a 50% S&P/ASX 200 Index (which is 50% hedged into NZ dollars) Market Environment Key Market Movements The New Zealand equity market (S&P/NZX 50 Gross with 1 month 3 months 1 year 3 years (pa) imputation) finished the month down -0.5%, taking its 12- S&P NZX 50 Index month return to +8.04%. The Australian equity market (S&P -0.46% -0.96% 8.04% 13.07% ASX 200) rose 1.1% for the month (-0.9% in NZD), taking its 12- S&P ASX 200 Index (NZD) -0.90% 3.51% 25.77% 8.20% month return to be up 28.6% (+25.8% NZD). S&P ASX 200 Index (AUD) 1.10% 5.80% 28.56% 9.48% Source: S&P/NZX , Bloomberg. Global markets were mixed as concerns about the delta COVID-19 variant and associated mobility restrictions contributed to forecasters reducing global growth expectations. Global bond yields fell as central banks remained dovish on falling inflationary expectations. A solid profit reporting season supported the US equity market. Chinese stocks were weak following regulatory changes. Commodity prices eased with iron ore and oil lower, but copper prices increased on supply constraints. Forecasters accelerated RBNZ official cash rate (OCR) increase expectations. RBNZ hikes and Australian COVID-19 lockdowns led to the NZD/AUD increasing 1.8% to 0.9474. NZ 10-year Government yields fell -0.1% to 1.65 reflecting slowing global growth. The fall in bond yields supported defensive income and structural growth stocks, as did an increase in M&A activity. Locally, real estate, industrial and materials stocks outperformed, whilst banks, utilities and travel & tourism underperformed. Top 10 Position % Mainfreight 13.1 The portfolio is positively biased to selected quality growth companies in the Summerset Group 8.2 healthcare, industrial and information technology sectors, where the potential rate CSL 6.6 and sustainability of growth may not be fully reflected in respective share prices. The National Australia Bank 6.3 portfolio also has selected growth investments in the more cyclical financial and materials sectors. The portfolio has a modest exposure to defensive growth stocks in Ebos Group 6.2 the utilities and real estate where valuations are full relative to their potential growth. Macquarie Group 6.1 The portfolio has no investment in the communication or energy sectors. Pacific Edge 4.5 Serko 4.5 Xero 3.8 Charter Hall Group 3.7 Fund Attribution Contribution Contribution to Position % Stock return % Position % Stock return % Largest Contributors to Return Largest Detractors Return Mainfreight 13.1% 0.89 7.4% Afterpay 3.3% -0.74 -19.5% Mineral Resources 1.7% 0.22 14.8% Kathmandu Holdings 2.3% -0.41 -14.9% IDP Education 1.8% 0.20 12.5% Summerset Group 8.2% -0.32 -3.8% Goodman Group 3.5% 0.16 4.8% Ebos Group 6.2% -0.25 -4.0% Fortescue Metals 3.3% 0.16 4.8% National Australia Bank 6.3% -0.24 -3.1% The portfolio underperformed in the month. Strong returns from structural growth stocks Mainfreight, Mineral Resources and IDP Education boosted portfolio returns. Investments in Afterpay, Kathmandu and Summerset were the key negatives to performance. Our research suggests all three of these growth stocks have the potential to positively surprise versus expectations. 1 | Harbour Australasian Equity Focus Fund Fund Highlights over the month The NZ equity market continued its recent retracement despite a relatively uneventful domestic pre profit results “confession” season, strong leads from the US and European company profit reporting season and lower long term bond yields. While this weakness in part this may reflect expectations of increases in the OCR by the RBNZ, it mostly reflected the sectoral biases of the NZ equity market. Earnings upgrades, particularly for materials and finance stocks, continued to support the Australian market. Later in the month an acceleration of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity reinforced that parts of the public listed market have become mispriced relative to private capital markets due to the shorter- term impacts of COVID relative to longer-term earnings growth potential. Stock Specific News over the month Mainfreight’s share price (+7.4% over the month) responded to a positive Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM) profit update. Mainfreight announced that it had grown profit before tax by +NZ$52m in the first 17 weeks, against financial year 2021, helped by global congestion, which is materially lifting forwarding margins and boosting the less-than-truckload (LTL) market. We had been expecting some upside but were stunned by how well Mainfreight is navigating ongoing disruptions to logistics chains for clients. While growth is likely to slow during the remainder of the year, stock broking analysts have had to scramble to upgrade earnings forecasts to reflect the better-than-expected start to the year. In our view, market consensus earnings expectations may be underestimating the base effect of the last 12 months on Mainfreight’s earnings going forwards - its ability to deliver exceptional service outcomes to clients through a challenging operating environment, reinforces Mainfreight’s ability to profitably grow share in the logistics markets it operates in. Strong Australian office and industrial property transaction activity drove returns for real estate investment managers Goodman Group (+6.9% in AUD) and Charter Hall (+5% in AUD). Industrial occupancy remains high and demand for high quality, well located industrial property is increasing as businesses continue to enhance logistics structures to enhance profitability. Strong physical market transaction evidence during the month with quality industrial assets trading at low 4% to high 3% income yields also supported the Goodman and Charter Hall share prices. Later in the month an acceleration of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity reinforced that parts of the public listed market have become mispriced relative to private capital markets due to the shorter-term impacts of COVID relative to longer-term earnings growth potential. While the closure of the trans-Tasman travel bubble hit returns for most travel and tourism exposed stocks during the month, the emergence of M&A activity with large sovereign wealth funds looking to take advantage of public market mispricing of COVID-19 related risk by launching a takeover offer for Sydney Airport (+34.9% in AUD), supported the Auckland Airport (-0.4%) share price. A takeover offer for Spark Infrastructure (+20.4% in AUD) during the month also underscored the attractiveness of infrastructure assets with defensive growth. Summerset (-3.8%) shares fell despite Summerset delivering a strong second quarter 2021 sales update, delivering its highest sales of occupation rights for units and apartments in a half year in its 23-year history. Some of the weakness in Summerset may reflect caution around COVID-19 risk but may also reflect switching to Ryman (+0.5%) after its positive ASM comments. Ryman announced a record first quarter and stronger cashflow than many had expected. Our research indicates the strong demand environment for retirement living is continuing, driven by aging demographics, the need for safety and security in a COVID-19 world and firm residential property markets. In our view, the market may be underestimating Summerset’s earnings potential and financial and operational strength. a2 Milk (-3.4%) shares continued to slide over the month. While there is an indication that a2’s management of inventory is contributing to a stabilisation in market pricing of its infant formula product, export volumes continue to fall below expectations with China’s June import data showing a -11% decline for total imports to China (by value). COVID-19 outbreaks may see a further decline in near term Chinese birth rates. We remain vigilant and active in a2 – the a2 brand continues to be well regarded by Chinese consumers, its share of market may have stabilised, and there are some early signs of a potential basing in activity in the ‘overseas purchase’ Daigou channel. But our research suggests it may be challenging for a2 to deliver the growth required to meet financial year 2022 market consensus earnings forecast. The portfolio reduced its investment in a2 during the month into price strength related to higher e-commerce infant formula pricing. Mineral Resources (+17.3% in AUD) and Fortescue Metals (+6.7%) continued to benefit from strong iron ore and lithium prices. Lithium prices were particularly strong with demand for electric vehicles outstripping the supply of key battery components including lithium. It will take several years before lithium production can meet existing demand let alone potential demand. The portfolio reduced investment in Fortescue over the month given our research suggests iron ore prices may be peaking as Chinese steel demand peaks near term. 2 | Harbour Australasian Equity Focus Fund A contributor to portfolio underperformance over the month was weakness in the share price of global buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) business Afterpay (-18.2% over the month in AUD).