Historical Origins of Modern Ethnic Violence: Pre-Colonial States and Separatist Civil Wars Jack Paine* August 20, 2019 Abstract This paper explains how precolonial statehood has triggered postcolonial ethnic violence. Groups organized as a pre-colonial state (PCS groups) often leveraged their historical privileges to control the postcolonial state while also excluding other ethnic groups from power, creating motives for rebellion. The size of the PCS group determined other groups’ opportunities for either gaining a separate state or overthrowing the government at the center. Regression evidence based on a novel global dataset of historical statehood demonstrates a strong positive correlation between stateless groups in countries with a PCS group and separatist civil war onset. Although the typical PCS group is large enough to deter center-seeking rebellions, in countries where the PCS group is small, stateless groups in their countries fight center-seeking rebellions at high rates. By contrast, particularly large PCS groups disable any rebellion prospects. These findings also explain cross-regional patterns in ethnic civil war onset and aims. *Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester,
[email protected]. I thank Bethany Lacina, Alex Lee, and Christy Qiu for helpful comments on earlier drafts. 1 INTRODUCTION Large-scale ethnic conflict is strikingly and tragically common in the postcolonial world. Numerous states outside of Western Europe fit the categorization of weakly institutionalized polities in which armed rebellion provides a viable avenue for aggrieved groups to achieve political goals. Many scholars analyze prospects for powersharing coalitions in these countries and consistently find that ethnic groups that lack access to power in the central government more frequently fight civil wars (Cederman, Gleditsch and Buhaug 2013; Roessler 2016).