The Pennsylvania State University Schreyer Honors College
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THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY SCHREYER HONORS COLLEGE DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY NILE RIVER: LIFELINE AND SOURCE OF CONFLICT FOR NORTHEASTERN AFRICA JASON POLLACK Spring 2015 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a baccalaureate degree in Environmental Systems Engineering with honors in Geography Reviewed and approved* by the following: Robert Brooks Professor of Geography Thesis Supervisor Roger Downs Professor of Geography Honors Adviser * Signatures are on file in the Schreyer Honors College. i ABSTRACT Over 238 million people live in the Nile River Basin. For many nations in this region in Eastern Africa, the Nile River is the sole source of freshwater. This has made the Nile one of the most contested rivers in the world. Egypt is the dominating power on the river with over 80 million of its people dependent upon the river. For centuries, Egypt has had a near monopoly over the Nile’s resources, which has proved to be a detriment to the hundreds of millions of other people who cannot fully utilize the Nile water within their country’s national boundaries. Recently, however, many of the 10 other Nile nations have signed a novel agreement known as the Cooperative Framework Agreement. This agreement is essentially a declaration from the Nile nations stating their right to use the Nile water resources within their national boundaries. The Cooperative Framework Agreement is also a rejection of centuries old Nile Water Agreements signed by European colonial powers, on behalf of their African territories, and Egypt. This thesis analyzes the legality of the current Nile Water Agreements, ways to increase water consumption and decrease water loss, and considerations for a comprehensive new agreement between the 11 Nile states. Related statutes of international law and water law are considered to determine the legality of the current Nile water treaties. Rapidly increasing populations and less stable precipitation patterns have placed strains on water and agricultural resources throughout the region. As tensions are rising, a new Nile Waters Agreement must be created. As ex-Egyptian President Anwar Sadat stated, “The only matter that could take Egypt to war again is water.” This thesis strives to propose ways to prevent such a war from occurring by analyzing the entire situation and suggesting tangible solutions. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 Geography of the Nile Region ..................................................................................... 3 White Nile ......................................................................................................................... 5 Blue Nile ........................................................................................................................... 11 People of the Nile......................................................................................................... 15 Egypt ................................................................................................................................ 15 Sudan ................................................................................................................................ 19 Comparison of the Downstream Nations ......................................................................... 21 Upstream Nile Nations ..................................................................................................... 23 Ethiopia ............................................................................................................................ 23 South Sudan ...................................................................................................................... 27 Eritrea .............................................................................................................................. 30 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) ...................................................................... 33 Tanzania ........................................................................................................................... 35 Uganda ............................................................................................................................. 37 Kenya ............................................................................................................................... 40 Burundi ............................................................................................................................. 42 Rwanda ............................................................................................................................. 43 Summary of the Nile’s Importance to basin countries ..................................................... 44 Are Waters of the Nile Egypt’s Inherent Right? .......................................................... 46 Ancient Egypt ................................................................................................................... 48 Supremacy of the Nile ...................................................................................................... 53 Egypt’s River .................................................................................................................... 56 Nile Imperialism .......................................................................................................... 59 Historical Context ............................................................................................................ 59 Nile River Water Agreements amongst European Nations .............................................. 62 Nile Waters Agreement of 1929 ....................................................................................... 64 The Nile Waters Agreement of 1959 ................................................................................ 68 Legality of the Nile Waters Agreements of 1929 and 1959 ........................................ 71 Principles of International Law ....................................................................................... 71 Water Law ........................................................................................................................ 74 Changing Nile Dynamics ............................................................................................. 78 Nile Basin Initiative.......................................................................................................... 78 Cooperative Framework Agreement ................................................................................ 80 iii Unity among the Upstream Nations ................................................................................. 82 Egyptian Options .............................................................................................................. 88 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 99 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Political Map of the Nile River Basin ("Nile River Basin," 2000) ........................... 4 Figure 2. Map showing where the White and Blue Nile Rivers meet (Carslon, 2013) ............ 6 Figure 3. Map showing the source of the Blue Nile River ("Blue Nile Map," 2004) ............... 11 Figure 4. This image shows the inlet and outlet sources of the Nile on its way to Egypt ("The Water Resources of the Nile Basin," 2012) ...................................................................... 14 Figure 5. Satellite Map of Egypt ("National Maps - Egypt - Satellite," 2014) ........................ 16 Figure 6. Water volumes (million m3/day) of the Nile in Egypt broken down by its primary source ("Future Demands on the Nile," 2007) ............................................................................ 18 Figure 7. Political Map of Sudan ("White - Blue Nile," 2014) ................................................ 20 Figure 8. This figure shows Ethiopia's major river basins. The Tekeze, Abbay, and Baro-Akobo are all a part of the Nile River basin ("River Basins of Ethiopia," 2010)........................ 24 Figure 9. Ethnic-political map of Ethiopia ("Administrative Regions," 2000) ........................ 25 Figure 10. Political Map of South Sudan ("Map of States of South Sudan," 2012) ................ 28 Figure 11. Political map of Eritrea ("Eritrea," 2006) ............................................................. 31 Figure 12. Map of the Congo River watershed. The dark green line is the border between the Congo and Nile watersheds ("Congo-Nile Divide," 2013) .............................................. 34 Figure 13. Map of population density in Tanzania ("Coastal Habitats," 2011) ...................... 36 Figure 14. Political Map of Uganda ("Map of Uganda," 2014) ............................................. 38 Figure 15. Nile Basin in Kenya ("Kenya Map," 2015) ............................................................ 41 Figure 16. Political map of Burundi ("Burundi," 2014) .......................................................... 43 Figure 17. Political map of Rwanda ("Rwanda," 2014) .......................................................... 44 Figure 18. Map of European possessions in Africa in 1914 (Iweriebor, 2011) ...................... 60 Figure 19. This image shows how Nile Basin populations are expected to grow ("Opportunities and Challenges," 2012) ...................................................................................................