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Estudios De Vigilancia Y Prospectiva Tecnológica En El Área De Defensa Y Seguridad

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Estudios De Vigilancia Y Prospectiva Tecnológica En El Área De Defensa Y Seguridad 2018 Estudios de Vigilancia y Prospectiva Tecnológica en el área de Defensa y Seguridad Centro de Estudios Grl Mosconi Prospectiva Tecnológica Militar TEC1000 2018 CEPTM “Grl MOSCONI” Estudios de Vigilancia y Prospectiva Tecnológica en el área de Defensa y Seguridad 2018 Estudios de vigilancia y prospectiva tecnológica en el área de defensa y seguridad / Juan Carlos Pérez Arrieu... [et al.]. - 1a ed . - Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires : Universidad de la Defensa Nacional. Centro de Estudios de Prospectiva Tecnológica Militar Gral. Enrique Mosconi, 2019. 232 p. ; 24 x 17 cm. ISBN 978-987-46550-5-9 1. Defensa Nacional. 2. Ingeniería. I. Pérez Arrieu, Juan Carlos Miguel CDD 355.007 DIRECTOR Juan Carlos Pérez Arrieu EDITOR Y PROPIETARIO CEPTM de la Facultad de Ingeniería del Ejército – UNDEF ISSN 2591-4162 Facultad de Ingeniería del Ejército “Grl Div Manuel N Savio”– UNDEF Av. Cabildo 15 . Palermo . Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires C1426AAA Teléfono: 4779-3300 [email protected] http://www.fie.undef.edu.ar ESTUDIOS DE VIGILANCIA Y PROSPECTIVA TECNOLÓGICA EN EL ÁREA DE DEFENSA Y SEGURIDAD ÍNDICE PRÓLOGO . Decano de la Facultad de Ingeniería del Ejército – UNDEF 7 PRESENTACIÓN . Director CEPTM “Grl MOSCONI” 9 1. PROSPECTIVA, VIGILANCIA TECNOLÓGICA E INTELIGENCIA ESTRATÉGICA 1.1 Armas de energía dirigida (DEWs) 11 1.2 Reactores nucleares de Generación IV 29 2. ARMAMENTO 2.1 Tecnologías disruptivas en los fuegos de precisión de largo alcance (LRPF) 39 2.2 Estado del arte de sistemas de protección balística personal y vehicular 121 3. INFORMÁTICA 3.1 Seguridad de la Información. Riesgos y desafíos crecientes 151 4. ELECTRÓNICA 4.1 Una mirada desde las actividades de contramedidas de vigilancia técnica (Technical Surveillance Counter Measures) 167 5. QUÍMICA 5.1 Guerra de nervios. Los agresivos neurotóxicos en el contexto del renacer de la guerra fría entre Rusia y el resto de Europa 173 6. GEOCIENCIAS 6.1 GNSS y Aumentación. Pasado, presente y futuro 185 6.2 Evolución de los sistemas de información geográfica 197 7. EL CEPTM “Grl MOSCONI” Integrantes 207 Principales actividades y eventos del CEPTM durante el año académico 2018 209 Capacitación 210 Publicaciones 212 Newsletters del Observatorio Tecnológico Militar (OTM) 213 8. ANTENA TERRITORIAL DE DEFENSA Y SEGURIDAD 225 8.1 Observatorio Tecnológico Aeroespacial (ota) de la Escuela Superior de Guerra Aérea 227 8.2 Observatorio Argentino del Ciberespacio (OAC) de la ESGC FFAA 229 5 ESTUDIOS DE VIGILANCIA Y PROSPECTIVA TECNOLÓGICA EN EL ÁREA DE DEFENSA Y SEGURIDAD PRÓLOGO Habiendo transcurrido el período inicial que impulsó su crea- ción, el Centro se consolidó en sus objetivos incorporando pro- gresivamente más analistas, especializados en los campos de in- terés tecnológico de la defensa, ampliando su alcance con nuevos observatorios a la Antena de Vigilancia Tecnológica Territorial de Defensa y Seguridad en el marco del Programa Vintec, e incor- porando nuevos vigías y observadores, motivados por el interés que despiertan las investigaciones que diariamente desarrollan sus integrantes. Así durante el corriente año, la difusión de los estudios, la transmisión de sus capacidades de análisis y la difusión de sus in- formes, motivaron la expansión de las áreas de análisis y la creación de los nuevos observatorios de Emergencias y Catástrofes, Aeroespacial y del Ciberespacio, que se suman al original Observatorio Militar Mosconi y que integrados potencian la explotación de las fuentes de información específi- ca para proveer de información novedosa a nuestras instituciones y colaborar desde allí al conoci- miento de las tendencias de evolución tecnológica para la defensa, orientando desde esa perspecti- va la formación superior universitaria ya no solo de ingenieros y técnicos sino también de oficiales y suboficiales de las tres fuerzas armadas de distintas especialidades en los institutos específicos y conjuntos de formación superior. En la complementación e integración de la vigilancia, que detecta información relevante, tendencias, novedades de tecnologías emergentes, nuevas invenciones e innovaciones con la la Inteligencia Estratégica, que analiza, depura y evalúa esa información para apoyar el pro- ceso de toma de decisiones estratégicas, el CEPTM se constituye en un componente fundamental que articula formación académica y comunidad de organizaciones para la defensa “La guerra es el campo de la incertidumbre, tres cuartas partes de las cosas a partir de las cuales es necesario calcular que acción debe ser emprendida en una guerra se encuentran más o menos ocultas en la nebulosa de una gran incertidumbre.” (Carl Von Clausewitz) La difusión del potencial del Centro a la Escuela Superior de Guerra Conjunta, a las Escuelas Superiores de Guerra específicas de las FFAA, el Instituto de Inteligencia de las Fuerzas Armadas y a los institutos de formación de las Fuerzas Armadas, posibilitó que quienes allí ejercen la do- cencia o se forman, encontraran en los aportes de los analistas y en las herramientas de vigilan- cia tecnológica una fuente de información acerca del estado del arte así como de las tendencias de desarrollos tecnológicos para contribuir a la formación de sus cursantes. Esta nueva edición de Tec 1000 que tengo el grato honor de prologar una vez más, es un sin- tético compendio de tan sólo algunas de las actividades que el Centro de Estudios de Prospectiva Tecnológica Militar “Grl Mosconi” desarrolló durante el año, al servicio de la comunidad en ge- neral y en particular para la comunidad académica y militar asociada a la Facultad de Ingeniería del Ejército. Es menester felicitar y agradecer el compromiso desinteresado y la profesional dedicación del Director del Centro, Coronel Juan Carlos Pérez Arrieu y de sus integrantes. 7 TEC1000 . 2018 . CEPTM “Grl MOSCONI” Deseo augurarles el mayor de los éxitos a ellos y a quienes se han incorporado más reciente- mente a este desafío de mirar al futuro y gestionar el presente para enfrentar al primero lo con la mejor preparación. CABA, diciembre de 2018 Marcos Horacio Mansilla Coronel - Decano de la Facultad de Ingeniería del Ejército – UNDEF 8 ESTUDIOS DE VIGILANCIA Y PROSPECTIVA TECNOLÓGICA EN EL ÁREA DE DEFENSA Y SEGURIDAD PRESENTACIÓN Como es sabido, la información es poder; es un factor de dominio y una herramienta para adap- tarse a las condiciones cambiantes del entorno. La obtención, análisis y difusión de la información adecuada sobre las oportunidades y amenazas derivadas de los cambios son imprescindibles tanto en el ámbito de la defensa como el de la seguridad nacional e internacional. Una Unidad, Centro u Observatorio Tecnológico en el ámbito de la seguridad y defensa permi- te aportar criterios técnicos y doctrinales a los órganos de asesoramiento y a los decisores, para la planificación estratégica a corto, mediano y largo plazo y, en especial, aporta al desarrollo de las actividades de investigación y desarrollo de interés en estas áreas. No podemos conocer con certeza cómo será el futuro de los conflictos armados, pero debemos estar preparados para enfrentarlos. Pensar el carácter futuro de la guerra es una tarea central en la profesión militar. La acción en la coyuntura tiene poco sentido si no es en función de un proyecto futuro; la An- tena Territorial de Vigilancia Tecnológica: CEPTM Mosconi en Defensa y Seguridad, creada con mucho esfuerzo en convenio con el MINCyT a fines de 2017, tiene algunos objetivos aún solo es- bozados, como los de ayudar a conformar e integrar otros Observatorios Tecnológicos en el área de Defensa y Seguridad (por ejemplo, emergencias y catástrofes, ciberseguridad / ciberdefensa, sistemas aeroespaciales, etc.). No es sencillo concretar esas metas en tiempos de escasos recursos en que lo urgente es resolver el día a día y conducir el difícil presente. Durante el año 2018, a raíz de iniciativas de proyectos de vigilancia tecnológica en la Escuela Superior de Guerra Aérea (ESGA) y la Escuela Superior de Guerra Conjunta (ESGC), el CEPTM cola- boró con la conformación de dos observatorios tecnológicos: el “Observatorio Tecnológico Aeroes- pacial” (OTA) de la ESGA y el “Observatorio Argentino del Ciberespacio” (OAC) de la ESGCFFAA. Queda aún concretar los convenios académicos interinstitucionales para integrar verdadera- mente los observatorios, es intención materializar dicho objetivo durante el 2019 y sumados al “Observatorio Tecnológico Militar” (OTM) Mosconi y un proyecto de “Observatorio en Emergen- cias y Catástrofes” poder brindar a la comunidad académica de la UNDEF, las Fuerzas Armadas y Fuerzas de Seguridad, productos de VT e IE de forma conjunta. Sabemos que la previsión y anticipación son cualidades distintivas de las estructuras mili- tares. Desde el CEPTM “GRL MOSCONI” tratamos con convicción de ejercitarlas, enseñarlas, inculcarlas y fomentarlas. “TEC 1000” es un producto de la Vigilancia Tecnológica y la Prospectiva, presenta algunos de los trabajos y estudios realizados por sus analistas y observadores durante el año académico de la Facultad de Ingeniería del Ejército; en ellos se reflejan las megatendencias, las nuevas amena- zas y posibles soluciones en el área de la Defensa y Seguridad desde una perspectiva tecnológica. Aspiramos a que al exponer los últimos avances y tendencias, contribuyamos con quienes se preparan para combatir en la guerra del futuro y, a su vez, sea de utilidad para la comunidad científico académica de la Facultad del Ejército. CABA, diciembre de 2018 Juan Carlos Miguel Pérez Arrieu Coronel (R) Ing. Mil. - Dir CEPTM Mosconi 9 ESTUDIOS DE VIGILANCIA Y PROSPECTIVA TECNOLÓGICA EN EL ÁREA DE DEFENSA Y SEGURIDAD 1. PROSPECTIVA, VIGILANCIA TECNOLÓGICA E INTELIGENCIA ESTRATÉGICA 1.1 Armas de energía dirigida (DEWs) Por el Cnl A (R) OIM Juan Carlos M. Perez Arrieu* 1. Resumen 2. Introducción, Qué son y a qué se llaman armas de energía dirigida, árbol tecnológico, Antecedentes en el campo militar. 3. Armas de pulso electromagnético (EMP), Qué es un EMP, Armas EMP de origen nuclear – Bomba Arco Iris – Pulso EMP de gran altitud (HEMP), armas EMP no nucleares (NNEMP) - Proyecto CHAMP, estudios de defensa contra EMP.
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