RIPON RE N EW TODAY

MAY 1, 1976 VOL. XII No. 9 so. CENTS

EDITORIAL: Foreign Policy ANSWERING'SENSIBLE QUESTIONS

In discussing foreign policy in a presi­ Criticism of Kissinger, however, has become an dential campaign, it is not enough to rattle accepted alternative to formulation of realis­ sabers and mouth cliches. As John F. Kennedy tic policy alternatives. If critics as di­ demonstrated with his ill-informed talk of a verse as Reagan, Jackson, former Georgia Gov. "nss1e gap" in the 1960 presidential campaign, Jimmy Carter, and Arizona U.S.Rep. Morris numerical comparisons of American and Soviet Udall all are criticizing Kissinger, sureiy warhead strength can be as politically enlight­ the sum total of their criticisms is not a ening as coun~ing the number of angels who can cohesive foreign policy. Henry Kissinger dance on the head of a pin. Former California serves a useful function in this year's pres­ Gov. Ronald Reagan and Washington Sen. Henry dentia1 campaign. The debate over Kissin­ M. Jackson(D) are among the foremost ange1- ger's personality and policies has obscured counters on the American scene, but the con­ the shallowness of presidential campaign duct of foreign policy requires more sophisti­ rhetoric. Whether one agrees or disagrees cated thinking than the "bodycount" mentality with the details of Kissinger's foreign poli­ displayed in the Vietnam War. As Mark Twain cy, his conception of a tripartite balance of observed, there are t~ree kinds of lies: lies, power among the United States~ the Soviet damn~d lies, and sbatistics. Union and China is still the name of the world game. Strengthening that balance of President Ford has had an unsett1ingdi­ power is in the interest of every American. lemma in campaign for the Republican presiden­ Providing incentives for Russia and China tial nomination. On the one hand, he is the to strengthen the balance and pena1ities or only President the country's got; Henry Kissin­ .disincentivesfor weakening it is the busi­ ger's the only Secretary of State'we've got; ness of foreign policy. and Kissinger's conception of the internation­ al balance of p,ower is the only operative no­ Both Democratic and Republican presi­ tion acting to reenforce world peace. And dentia1candidates have ducked the hard though Kissinger, according to polls such as questions of ~erican foreign policy. How one taken recently by CBS News and the New strong America's defense capabiiities now York Times, maintains'much of his popularity are and will be in the near future'is fuel with the electorate, there is a large segment for endless debate. The question is not of conservative Republican opinion which would unimportant, but thelmore important one is like to see Kissinger sink 'slowly in the Pana­ whether it is strong enough to accomplish ma Canal. As a result, the President has ' American foreign policy objectives. John tried to back the Secretary of State as Pres­ '~. Kennedy proved ,you could get elected ident, it seems, and undercut Kissinger in pis President by saying the United States is role as presidential candidate. The result number two. He also proved it didn't mean has been confusing for the e1ect,orate and much. undoubtedly equally confusing in foreign cap­ itals. Ronald Reagan has injected ,the bunker­ house mentality into the presidential c~ Criticizing Kissinger has not been con­ paign. He says he would never give up pos­ fined to conservative Republicans. Criticism session of the Panama Canal, as if physical of the Secretary of State spans the political possession rather than guaranteed access is spectrum and both political parties. In that the real issue on the Panama Cana1 ••• and as respect, Kissinger very much resembles his if the Panama Canal did not have dangerous mentor. Vice President Nelson Rockefeller. po~entia1 for reviving memories of gunboat diplomacy in Latin America. Ronald Reagan * What adjustments should the federal may play the ostrich and stick his head government be prepared to make in t~ade agree­ in the sand, but the American. people cannot ments involving Alnerica' s market economy and afford that luxury. They have the right to the planned economies of foreign governments, spect that presidential candidates ven­ e.g., the grain deals between the United States ture out of the desert of personality poli­ and the Soviet Union. tics onto an occasional oasis of issue de­ cussion. * What policies ought the United States to take regarding extraterritorial possessions' There is no dearth of issues to dis­ and bases whose continued 'presence in. foreign cuss. It would be foolish to expect that countries arouses nationalist antagonisms? any presidential candidate would cover them all. But by examining a candidate's posi­ What is the future function of NATO tion on a few of the truly important ques­ * forces? What adjustments in American and NATO tions facing foreign policy makers, the Am­ policy should the U.S. be prepared to take if erican people will be able to gain some in­ Communists are included in coalition govern­ sight into the way the candidate thinks. That ments in Italy or France? is a good deal better than the sloganeering currently engaged in by both Republicans-and * What policies should the United States Democrats. be prepared to take to improve relations with China and keep Sino-Soviet relations at a The list of problems is undoubtedly end­ level of low-key antagonism? Should the less, but the Ripon Society has a list of ques­ United ~tates be prepared to renege on its tions which suggest the variety: commitments to Taiwan? * What compromises between purely nation­ * What policies should the United States al interest and international ones should the take on the export of American arms and tech­ United States be prepared ~o make regarding .nical assistance to belligerent nations in the law of the seas, particularly as it applies areas such as the Middle East? to fishing, territorial boundaries, and deep sea mnitig? * What action should the United States take to regulate and control the export of * To what degree should the federal gov­ peaceful nuclear assistance to potentially ernment involve itself in the regulation of' belligerent nations? activities of U.S.-based multi~tional corpora­ tions beyond U.S. borders? * What strategic capabilities and weapons systems ought to be priorities for * What factors---e.g., domestic employ­ the United States defense system? ment, consumer price levels, the balance of payments, infla~ionary pressure---should be Most importantly, however, presidential paramount in determining tariff and quota de­ candidates ought to be prepared to answer the cisions affecting imports of products whose question: What does the 'United States, do to American counterparts are in economic trouble, convince the Soviet Union that it is in that e.g., the shoe industry? country's best interests to pursue the goals' of continued detente? Call it "peace through * To what extent should the United States strength" or "Ford has a better idea," the be· prepared to enter into new bilateral or name of the game is still detente. It is multilateral defense agreements? To what ex­ time presidential aspirants discussed the tent should existing U.S. commitments to na­ rules •• tions like South Korea be altered? * What forces and governments should the United States be prepared to abet or thwart in volatile sections of the world such as southern HAVE A FRIEND WHO MIGHT LIKE TO RECEIVE - Africa? THE FORUM? * What actions or policies should the United States pursue regarding gross violations Why not send his/her name(s) to: of human rights in the. internal affal.rs of al­ lies like Chile, neutrals like India, and ad­ Ripon FORUM versaries like the Soviet Union? To what ex­ Box 226 tent should trade polici~s be controlled by Charlestown, Mass. '02129 the Secretary of State and foreign poligy considerations? SENATOR BROCK'S HOUSING IDEA tOMMENTABY: THE CITY by Ralph E. Thayer

In January 1973. the Ripon FORUM publish­ , Bro~k' s plan is aimed at the "working ed a very provoca~ive article exploring the class family," which although not specifically idea of the shared-value mortgage. As Gibbs defined would 'be typified by one with an an­ LaMotte explained in the article, the "shared nual income of $12,400. Assuming this to be value mortgage" would empower a loan guarantor the average of the target group, the income such as the Federal Housing Administration or range of the working class would be about the Veterans Administration to provide an in­ $10-15,000. The maximum mortgage under the terest subsidy to the home purchaser which plan is $35,000 while Sen. Brock's own figures would be repaid when the house was sold. In show the average new home price to be $41,000. effect, both the government'and the home-owner Either the buyer must come up with about a would share in the carrying costs of'the house '$6,000 down payment (which is not mentioned -and settle accounts at the time of the sale. in the bill) or buy a home in an area where land costs, etc. are low and no-frill;houses Sen. William Brock(R-Tenn.) has apparent­ are selling in the $30-35,000 neighborhood. ly pursued the idea and has now introduced a Sen. Brock's program will build a lot of bill(S-3l93).calling for amendment of Section houses in Texas and Arizona if that is its 2, Title III of the National 1I0using ACt by intent. adding a new section. "housing Incentive Invest­ ment Interest Payments." A companion bill was The down payment is only one hurdle to introduced in the Houae by U.S.Rep. Thomas L. fami~ies trying to escape the city. Blacks Ashley(D-Ohio). Calling for a $1 billion auth­ in the city, for example, are less likely than orization to establish a separate fund in the their white counterparts to be able to draw Government National Mortgage Association, the upon stored equity in a previous home to fin­ idea is to provide a stable interest rate (7 ance the purchase of a suburban hQme. It is, percent is suggested) to the purchaser over of course,. possible that this program could the life of the mortgage. Simultaneously, the work in the center city as well as older sub­ lender is reimbursed by the G.N.M.A. for the urbs except for a barrier inherent in the difference between 7 percent and his actual Brock bill, section 3l4(c-3). Briefly, if interest cost, e.g., 9~ percent. The actual the proceeds of the sale are not enough to re­ interest cost on which the subsidy is calcu­ pay the subsidy, the "purchaser" is personally lated by G.N.M.A. every six months in order liable. (I ·assume this refers to the initial to be market-sensitive. purchaser or the recipient of the subsidy. If At the time of resale, the subsidy is re­ it refers to the ~ purchaser, the outstand­ paid to G.N.M.A. out of the profits of the ing amount would be similar to a tax lien and transaction. Since approximately 20 percent could further complicate inner city sales.) of the u.S. population moves each year, there Understanding that one of the selling features should 'be enough activity to keep the subsidy of this bill is its fiscal integrity, it is fund close to self-sustaining. Lending insti­ safe to predict that this program will be used tutions should like the bill since it provides by G.N.M.A. almost exclusively ·to cover proper­ them with a variable interest rate loan sensi­ ties where the possibility of value deprecia­ tive to inflation but without the outraged tion of the property is remote. Translation: consumer reaction that changes in monthly pay­ here comes Levittown again; transition housing ments could provoke. areas are too risky for government guarantees.

Without question. current national hous­ Third, the working class family today ing ~rograms are in disarray. The Section 8 is either leaving the city or desirous of doing rental subsidy program is going very slowly so. In fact, the working class should have the and has done almost nothing to spark new con­ same right to housing choice as affluent citi­ struction. John Hart, president of the Home zens. In reality, if we further subsidize the Builders, calls Section 8 "welfarish" and like­ exodus from older, urban areas as this bill is ly only to drive up everyone's rent. Apart likely to do, any savings garnered in the hous­ from that, there is a gnawing fear that, if ing program will be eaten up by payments to dy­ Section 8 does succeed, it will do so by ing cities or more grants for extension of sew­ draining the most affluent and stable tenants er lines, etc. The national policy objective out of traditional public housing, thereby is to conserve and capitalize on already popu­ leaving local housing authorities with an even lated areas, Section 8 embraces this objective more unstable income mixture than at present. but is incapable of ~jor impact. The Brock Section 8 is a workable objective without a bill is a potentially potent delivery system delivery system; the Brock plan may well be but is devoid of an objective in consonance the reverse. with national policy. Yet. the Brock plan could work and work are environmentally sensitive, for example. well if certain provisions were added. For ex­ (farmland or wetlands) or extensions of ur­ ample. a variable interest mortgage should be ban sprawl, the subsidy would not be avail­ viewed as a privilege available only through able; the purchaser would bear the full cost lending agencies whose actions are in conform­ of living .in a location better suited to al­ ance with the locally-'designated Housing Assis­ ternate uses. Obviousiy, the imposition of tance Plan. This might serve at least to draw such conditions would complicate the p'rogram attention to the existence of the H.A.P •• which as it is now proposed. However,·a potentially is now simple paperwork. Second, the subsidy potent delivery system without an objective re should be more attractive to the consumer if lated to national housing policy is likely to he or· she makes a housing choice in conformity be very damaging. The concept is good, but to national policy. 'To take a mortgage in a fully inept. When Reagan failed to overcome city or inner suburb area which the H.A.P. directed more precisely.at objectives which cites as a location needing stabilization do more than simply stimulate housing cons­ would qualify the purchaser for the full 2~ truction in unspecified areas •• percent subsidy. For housing in areas which

CHOOSING THE VICE PRESIDENT COMMENTABY: CONVENTION by Chuck Slocum

In. 1972, there was a great cry from the With these criteria in mind the Minneso­ .,ublic about the way political parties select ta Independent Republican Party has a proposal their Vice Presidential candidates after a se­ which is basically very simple. .Upon declar­ lected nominee was removed from the ticket. ing his or her candidacy for the office 'of Soon after that, a sitting Vice President was President, a candidate would be required to forced to leave office and again, the· public present a list of four to six potential run­ questioned the way political parties do their ning mates to the Republican National Commit­ business. Both parties involved themselves tee 120 days prfor to the Republican National in a flurry of activity to change the process Convention. This list would be a matter of but nothing concrete has happened. public record. During this four-month period, regional forums could be held to discuss the In Minnesota recently, over 60,000 Inde­ various names submitted by the Presidential pendent-Republicans advised us as to their ·candidates. " Presidential favorites .through our precinct caucuses. We received woefully little input After receiving the nomination of the on the Vice Presidential issue. Candidates national party, a candidate's list of poten­ for President are subjected months of elec­ tial running mates would become a ballot from tioneering, questions from the media, and ex­ which the national convention would have to posure to the public. Yet, the person who work. If desired, the national committee is to take over from President in an emergency could report ~o the convention on each poten­ is still selected in the backroom, maybe un­ tial candidate. No other people could be known to virtually all of the people in the added to the list except the previously-an­ United States. He' or she never has to face nouncedPresidential candidates, who presum­ the same kind of public scrutiny given the ably ~ould have received national press expos­ top of the ticket. ure. The Presidential nominee could indicate' a running mate preference which undoubtedly The Vice Presidency is a meaningful of­ would carry a great deal of weight with con- fice.. Twelve of our country's 36 Presidents vention delegates. ' trained there; eight of them took over upon the death of a President, and four of our This simple reform allows the Presiden­ last six Presidents served as Vice Presidents. tial nominee to choose a running mate with Four points must be considered in making. a whom he is philosophically and personally com­ change in the method under which these Vice patible.· It also aliows reasonable scrutiny Presidents are 'selected by their parties: of the possible candidates. And, since ·the 1. The process must be in compliance list is prepared in advance, it negates the with the U.S.Constitution. possibilit1 that a Presidential nominee would 2. The process should avoid any great choose a running mate at a time when he may changes in the rules of the national conven- be under extreme pressure or even mentally tion. . and physically exhausted •• 3. The Vice Presidential nominee should be philosophically and personally compatible Contributor Notes: Ralph Thayer is director of with the Presidential n~nee. the Urban Studies Institute at New Orleans Uni 4. The Vice Presidential nominee should versity. Chuck SlocUm is chairman of the Minn be selected by more than a handful of people. ~ esota ~ndependent Republican Party. COMMENTARY: TheGOP SLUGGING IT OUT IN THE SUN BELT

One should not underestimate Ronald Rea­ expected to develop in many upcoming primary gan'saccomplishments in this year's presiden­ states such as South Dakota. Kentucky, and tial C8lllPaign. Reagan has faltered badly in Nebraska. Only occasionally--in a case such thli! opening primaries', but considering the as ldaho-~-has the Reagan campaigned faltered advantages of Gerald Ford's office, Reagan in an area where they were truly strong. And has done quite well. With George Wallace fad­ in Idaho, Ford's strength reflects more the :tng from the national scene, Reagan has been incompetence of the Reagan effort than the able to pick up some of the Wallace constitu­ competence of the President's own~ ency as well as the Wal,lace issue,s. But as Reagan has learned, winning and Wallace are The perhaps fa tal flaw in Reagan' s c~ not the same thing. Increasingly, Reagan paign is its intellectual shallowness. Rea­ and Wallace seem like similar political crea­ gan's failure to attract a large number of kin­ tures: men whose capacity for speaking ex­ dred conservative officeholders as followers ceeds their capacity for governing and whose ,ought to reflect ,that lack of depth. The capacity for stirring emotions seems to ex­ "speech,' for example, has the cift-repeated ceed their capacity for stirring rational line, "Balancing the budget is ,like protecting debate. your virtue. You have to learn to say 'no.'" Balancing the budget is a bit more complex Reagan strategists made the same mistake than that. It is an admirable objective, but that Ford organizers made last year. Both at­ to achieve it requires a tradeoff of.priorities tempted to make a psychological knockout of the for which Reagan shows little tolerance or opposition which would quickly end the conflict understanding. As former Reagan aide Norman and avoid the necessity for developing pro­ "Skip" Watts, now Ford's director of primary longed and detailed strategy. When the predic­ states, observes about Reagan's work habits: tions of a knockout proved erroneous, both c~ "A lot of people have tried to say it is the paigns were open to criticism for their organ­ staff around Reagan. It's not the staff. It's izational weakness. The criticism, was first Reagan. I don't think Reagan should be Presi­ directed at Ford because his campaign organiza­ dent becapuse you can't have a 9-to-5 ~resi~ tion in New Hampshire and Florida seemed piti­ dent. It would be dangerous to the country fully, inept. 'When Reagan failed: to overcome and dangerous to the party." Like Carter and Ford in those states, the,campaign inadequa­ Brown, Reagan has never been good at the art ~ies of the former California governor quick­ of political compromise---an art he would sure­ ly became obvious. Where once John Sears was ly have to employ with a Democratic Congress. touted widely as a campaign wizard, the same Recently, the Washington Post's Lou Cannon kudos were subsequently awarded to Stuart Spen­ wrote:"At least 60 former appointees or key cer. The lack of depth in the Reagan organiza­ political supporters of ex-California Gov. tion became apparent when Reagan failed to con­ Ronald Reagan have, turned against him and are test Pennsylvania, allowed Ohio's filing dead­ backing President Ford against their onetime line to nearly pass before'qualifying by the political hero. They give varying reasons but barest of margina and failed to even ,adequate­ the dominant one is that they consider Reagan ly mobilize for the fertile soil of Maryland. unqualified to be President.

The remaining skirmishing in the South As cruel and mean-spirited as it may and West promises to be often close and always sound, after eight years as governor. of Cali­ hard fought. Only pleading by Sen. Barry Gold­ fornia 'and two decades on the fried chicken water'prompted Arizona conservatives to in­ circuit, Reagan is still primarily an actor. clude Sen. Paul Fannin(R) with House Minority He may be a damn good actor, but he is still Leader John Rhodes(R} as Ford delegates on an essentially playacting. His speeeh does otherwise all-Reagan slate. In South Carolina, inspire confidence and he does given the Gov. James Edwards(R} stumbled only in his appearance of leadership--far more so than search for an all-Reagan slate,when he sought President Ford, according to a. recent CBS­ a unit-rule for the state's delegation. Cau­ New .York Times survey. But Reagan cannot cuses in Oklahoma have disclosed nearly simi­ administer and he cannot develop policy. He lar levels of Reagan support. And in states cannot compromise and he doesn't like the where contests appear to be closer---such as nitty gritty of policy. He doesn't have a Kanaas, Missouri, Iowa, and Alaska--Reagan strong grasp 'of national political realities forces have often showed surprisingly strong and social problems. And he doesn't know ,support. In Alaska, for example. Reagan scored haw to administer a bureaucracy effectively. well in the Anchorage area~ but Ford picked up And he hasn't shown much interest in learning. . enough support in Fairbanks and Juneau ~o And that may be one of the strongest reasons probably give him the edge in the May 21-23 why Reagan has not att~acted more Republican convention. Fairly close contests are also "name support." Hawaii: Dele$ates from Hawaii will go space in a final rUling by the secretary 'of to the national convention officially uncom­ . state. mitted, but a D'inimum of 18 of the 19 will be Ford supporters. Senatorial district cau­ South Dakota: The filing of an uncomm1.t­ cuses nominated two-thirds of the delegates ted slate in the June 1 primary may aid Rea­ at the end o{ April, but all 19 will be gan' s ~hances of picking up delegates in South elected at the May 15 state convention. Dakota. Ford organizers feel the uncommitted The President Ford Committee opened a small siate will cut into their vote more heavily . office in Hawaii in January, but it .soon than Reagan's. Only slates att1;:'acting mo~e became apparent that Reagan conceded Hawaii than 20 percent of the GOP vote will receive to Ford, even to the point of i8Uoring the national convention delegates so the uncom­ the request of several local party officers to mitted slate may finish out of 'the rUnniU$ organize on behalf of Reagan. The inability while still damaging Ford. Despite the back­ of Reagan's national organization to follow ing of top elected Republicans for Ford---U.S. up in aawaii probably cost the former Califor­ Rep. James Abdnor and Attorney General William nia governor a third of the delegat'e vote. Janklow support the President and State Treas­ urer David'Volk is his campaign chairman--­ Kentucky: A close contest is being pre­ Ford and Reagan are rated about even in the dicted for the May 25 priDlary. Former Gov. state. Louie Nunn's support for Reagan and Ford's late organizational start gave Reagan an ear­ ly edge in the state. According to the ~­ YOU ARE INVITED TO A MAJOR POLITICAL ville Courier-Journal's Bill Billiter, the CONFERENCE ON THE FUTURE OF NEW YORK primary outcome will hinge on Ford's showing in Jefferson County(Louisville) and the GOP's Place: New York University's Loeb Stu­ 5th C.D. stronghold. In the latter, the pri­ dent Center. Greenwich Village mary· may be as much' a referendum on the rela- T~e: Friday, May 14. 5-10 p.m. , tive popularity of Nunn and U.S.Rep. Tiin Lee Sa~urday, May 15, 8:45 a.m.-6. p.m. C~rter, a strong Ford supporter, as between Cost: $15 for conference, including Reagan and Ford. The~e are 10ng-standing meals; special student and one-day grievances between Carter and Nunn. Conven­ rates. tion. delegates were chosen in late April. but Sponsor: Ripon Society of New York will be committed proportionately on the Speakers: Dr. Barry Commoner. profes­ basis o~ the primary results. sor of environmental science, Wash­ ington University; Missouri; .Ford backers in Missouri were Dr. John C. Sawhill, president of jolted by Reagan's incredibly strong showing New York University and former ad­ in Kansas's. adjoining Johnson County. As in ministr~tor of the Federal Energy many states, the Ford campaign has virtually Administration the entire state GOP leadership behind it--­ Sen. Jacob K. Javits; and Gov. Christopher S. Bond, Lt. Gov. William State Sen. Roy M. Goodman; chair­ C. Phelps, Attorney General John·C. Danforth. man of the State Charter Revision and, St. Louis County Supervisor Gene MCNary. Commission for New York City. who heads the Ford organization. Close con­ Discussion groups: Led by academic. tests are expected in many of the predomi­ business. and political leaders. nantly rural and district conventions lead­ Reservations and Information: Ripon ing up to the June 12 convention in Spring­ Society, Box 3869. New York. New field. York 10017. 202-355-3300. Ohio: A recent Scripps-Howard newpaper Conference Chairman: Archibald L. survey showed Ford getting about 60 percent . Gillies. of the GOP vote. Reagan was granted ballot

THE RIPON SOClfir. INC. IspoSpiro Agnew matters, and spently freely of his own per­ touches. Sen. Glenn Beall(R) and former Sen. sonal fortune in an effort to get the Senate Joseph Tydings(D) appear headed for a rematch, nomination. He has been particularly criti­ of their 1970 clash unless U.S.Rep. Paul Sar­ cal of the Department of Health, Education, banes(D) can close the gap between the twO-­ and Welfare under Finch, but has failed to men before the May 18 primary. Tydings, who' make campaign headway. Finch, by contrast, was believed to be the underdog in the Demo­ has tried to keep the nomination worth get­ cratic race before a February poll by the Bal­ ting by appealing blqndly to all segments timore Sun showed that he had a 46"';28 percent of the party, making obligatory conservative lead, benefits from far greater name'recogni­ noises without sounding stridently offensive. tion in the state. 'However, Sarbanes has cut He came close to receiving the endorsement Tydings' lead in recent months; an April Sun of the conservative California Republican poll showed he trailed Tydings by only 41-31 Assembly, but was blocked at the last min­ percent. The Baltimore area congressman ute by Harmer, who is viewed as a stalking been considered the early favorite because of horse for Reagan's presidential hopes by Tydings' considerable personal and political some. The object of all this maneuveuring, liabilities as well as Sarbanes' own organiza­ Sen. John Tunney, does not inspire particu­ tional strength. The low-key Sarbanes has lar enthusiasm among his fellow Democrats, declined to capitalize on Tydings' weaknesses despite a 55-15 lead over former antiwar while Tydings has tried to shed his liberal im­ 'activist Tom Hayden. Hayden persistently age, alter his controversial stance on gun con­ links Tunney to Big Business while the GOP trol, and adopt a more moderate-conservative links him to big defense cuts. Tunney hasoori­ rhetorical tone which would appeal to anti-Bal­ ented his campaign toward a fall contest with timore, anti-Washington feelings among suburban Finch and has moved noticeably rightward in Democrats. Sarbanes has attempted to build on the past year, opposing Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's his Baltimore base but his edge in financial health insurance bill and favoring mandatory and leadership support has yet to be felt ••• prison sentences. Probably the most damaging although a late media surge may undercut Tyd­ thing to happen to Hayden's candidacy was wife ings' predom~nantly self-financed efforts. Jane Fonda's scurrilous comments about Tunney Beall, a genial and equally low-key incumbent, dating "teenage" girls. Even Fonda had to is widely considered one of the most vulnerable backtrack on that one. Meanwhile down in the Republicans in the Senate. Although Beall 40th C.D. where Richard Nixon suns himself in ,trailed Tydings, 39-36 percent and led Sarbanes San Clemente, U.S.Rep. Andrew Hinshaw(R) has 36-33 percent in. the February Sun poll, a race been suffering the persistent effects of a against Tydings and his persistent weaknesses bribery conviction. Although Hinshaw persists might be easier for Beall, who has been over­ in trying to seek ,reelection, his conviction shadowed by the state's better-publicized sen­ has attracted a wide range of aspirants, in­ ior senator, Charles McC. Mathias(R). Con­ cluding John Schmitz, the American Party can­ gressional race interest has focused on the didate for President in 1972 whom Hinshaw had 8tQ C.D. where progressive U.S.Rep.Gilbert Gude defeated earlier the same year in the GOP con­ (R) is retiring, and the 3rd C.D. where Sar- , gressional primary. State Assemblyman Robert banes is leaving the seat vacant. Gude's sub­ Badham(R) is favored to pick up the seat al­ urban Washington seat has attracted 10 Republi­ though' the preponder~nce of conservative,can­ can and 11 Democratic aspirants. But whereas didates for the seat may allow California State State Sen. Newton I. Speers, Jr., is the clear Republican favorite, the Democratic field in­ chance of capturing the Senate as well. cludes a host of state and local officials-as well as former Muskie aide Lanny J. Davis and I UTAH I The GOP has two tempting former McGovern aide Frank Mankiewicz. The targets in Utah this year. The decision of' 3~d C.D. race is strictly a Democratic ethnic Gov. Calvin L. Rampton(D) not to seek a fourth affair with Irish, Italian, and Polish groups term and the decision of U.S.Rep.Gunn McKaY(D) ~epresented. One of th~ aspirants in Balti­ not to pursue that nomination eliminates the more City Councilwoman Barbara Milkulski, who Democrats' two most' popular candidates for 'ran agatnst Sen. Mathias in 1974. the post. both of whom led Attorney General Vernon B. Romney(R) in pre-announcement polls. Romney. however, will have opposition for the I SOUTH DAKOTA I U.S.Rep. Larry Pressler GOP nomination from Davis County Commissioner (R). a controversial fesbman who alienated a Stanley Smoot. whose courthouse ties through good part of the party hierarchy during his Utah's 29 counties may help cut into Romney's first campaign and first term, appears to have lead. Rampton said a Democratic poll helped been spared a serious primary challenge and him step aside because it showed Romney could probably a serious general election one as 'be defeated by other Democrats; Rampton admit­ well. James V. Guffey, a former D~ratic ted, however, that only he and McKay actually state chairman who is commissionerL~~ commerce led Romney. In the Senate race, three Repub­ and consumer affairs, is the probable Democra­ licans have been 'prominent in the effort to tic candidate, but he lacks.the Dame recogni- . oust Sen. Frank Moss: Desmond Barker, a for­ tion to s~riously challenge Pressler, whose mer White fiOuse aide; Jack Carlson, until re­ popularity is greater among the general elec­ cently assistant secretary of the interior, torate than within the state's GOP. Press­ and former U.S.Rep. Sherman P. Lloyd, who ler's peacekeeping efforts during the last six lost congressional 'races in 1960 and 1972. months have smoothed some of the ruffled GOP won them in 1962, 1966 •. 1968, and 1970, feathers, ·however. U.'S.Rep. James Abdnor(R), and lost a Senate primary in 1964. A fourth who won 68 percent of the vote in 1974. is candidate, Clinton Miller, who has been a also rated a safe bet. Both men ma,y be looking health food lobbiest for a decade, is toward 1978 when Sen. James Abourezk(D) comes considered a likely recipient of John Birch up for reelection. Abourezk. whose.defense Society supp~rt and therefore a possible of Arab interests in the Senate has made htm survivor of the June convention which will a unique and somewhat controversial figure. narrow the field to two for the primary. may be vulnerable. Rumors in South Dakota There are no significant philosophical dif­ politics have suggested that he ~ght even ferencesamong Lloyd. Carlson, and Barker. call it quits himself after one term. The Sen­ All are "moderates by Utah standards, and ate seat will be attractive since South Dakota "conservatives" by national measurements. will lose one House seat after 1980. forci~g Lloyd, who recently retired from federal the'remaining congressional candidate to run service with the· Commerce Department, has at large anyway. Another man lo()k~g at Ab~ur­ the best name recognition and ran only six ezk's seat is the new state chairman. Leo Thors­ percentage points behind Moss in a February ness. a former POW who came within 17,000 votes poll by the Salt Lake Tribune. On the other Of'iinseating Sen. George McGovern(D) in 1972. hand, ~Lloyd has managed to alienate almost Irontcally. the man Thorsnes~ recently,succeed~ every GOP activist in the state. Carlson ed as state chairman~ John Olson, came within is a former Unive~sity of Utah student body 20.000 votes of. unseating Gov. Richard Kneip(D) president with firm ties from his Utah days in 1974. Kneip is serving his third and last but whose recent absence frolil the state.will term so many Republicans are salivating at the hurt him badly. Barker has'strong support thought of a 1978 gubernatorial race. South among GOP ac~ivists and boasts former Sen. Dakota was comparativ~ly good to the GOP in Wallace F. Bennett as his campaign chairman, 1974, when the GOP took over the only legis­ but. he is almost unknown outside of GOP lative house in the country. This year, South inner circles. His advertising profession Dakota Republicans think they have a good is not considered an advantage. FORUM . Published semi-monthly by the Ripon Society, 1609 Conn. Ave., N.W., W9.sh•. ington, D.C. 20009. Second class post­ age paid .at Washington, D.C. and _other mailing om~es.