A Introduction

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

A Introduction University of Groningen The Soft Side of Dark Power Roslycky, L.L. IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 2011 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Roslycky, L. L. (2011). The Soft Side of Dark Power: A Study in Soft Power, National Security and the Political-Criminal Nexus with a special focus on the post-Soviet Political-Criminal Nexus, the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Separatism in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. University of Groningen. Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). The publication may also be distributed here under the terms of Article 25fa of the Dutch Copyright Act, indicated by the “Taverne” license. More information can be found on the University of Groningen website: https://www.rug.nl/library/open-access/self-archiving-pure/taverne- amendment. Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date: 05-10-2021 The Soft Side of Dark Power © Lada L. Roslycky All rights are reserved. No parts of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording or otherwise - without prior written permission of the author or the corresponding journal. Cover design by Lada L. Roslycky & M. Mellens, NetzoDruk Groningen. Printed by NetzoDruk, Groningen. This book is dedicated to our unsung heroes. So it goes. K. Vonneghut Table of Contents List of figures ii Acknowledgements iii Introduction - 1 - Part ONE: Soft Power Security - 12 - 1. Introduction - 12 - 1.1 The Perceived Power of the State - 14 - 1.2 Soft Power Security - 37 - 1.3 Conclusion Part One - 59 - Part TWO: Politically Organized Transnational Crime - 64 - 2. Introduction - 64 - 2.1 Transnational Organized Crime - 67 - 2.2 The State: A protection racket? - 79 - 2.3 Profiling the Post-Soviet Political-Criminal Nexus - 104 - 2. 4 Conclusion Part - 118 - Part Three: A Dark Side to Soft Power in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea? - 121 - 3. Introduction - 121 - 3.1 Ukraine: Its PCN, Crimea and the Russian Black Sea Fleet - 122 - 3.2 Trust Builders or the Post-Soviet Political-Criminal Nexus? - 161 - 3.3 Conclusion Part Three - 193 - Conclusion - 200 - Reference List - 210 - Appendix A - 1 - Appendix B - 1 - Appendix C - 1 - List of figures Figure 1 Tangible Power Equation ...................................................................... - 17 - Figure 2 Three Dimensional Chessboard of Power ......................................... - 31 - Figure 3 Hard and Soft Power Behaviours ....................................................... - 33 - Figure 4 Competition Spectrum ........................................................................... - 54 - Figure 5 Strategic Purpose and Political Security Interlinked ............................... - 56 - Figure 6 National Will and Societal Security Interlinked ....................................... - 58 - Figure 7 Soft Power Threats ................................................................................ - 61 - Figure 8 Soft Power Security ............................................................................... - 62 - Figure 9 Soft Power Aggression .......................................................................... - 63 - Figure 10 Political Criminal Dyad and Nexus ....................................................... - 88 - Figure 11 Dynamics of the PCN ........................................................................ - 102 - Figure 12 The PCN and Dynamic Relationship within the Dyad ........................ - 103 - Figure 13 Soft Power PCN Analyses ................................................................. - 196 - ii Acknowledgements The writing process certainly teaches much about preconceptions, conceptions and misconceptions, particularly one‘s own. I first express my gratitude to Prof. dr. P.M.E. Volten and Dr. J. Herman for their trust and remarks. The ideas for this book were sown while listening to the story of the Trojan War. It was my bedtime story. Coming from a family who experienced both Communist and National Socialist persecution, I was no stranger to tales of war. Yet hearing Homer‘s epic poem was the first time I felt awe imagining the deceiving war- makers and pondered the existence of those who protect humanity and serve justice. It was also the first time that my mother told me of the International Court of Justice and a little country called the Netherlands. She informed that certain rules had been put in place to protect human beings, their liberties and their states. Yet, for some reason those rules did not seem to work very well, and, I wanted to know why. It was during my legal studies at the University of Amsterdam that I recognized national security as a topic that provided a unique perspective on the interstices between international law and politics. Prof. dr. André Nolkaemper played a pivotal role in this process. I thank him for this and for encouraging me to pursue a doctorate. I am also thankful to the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade for promoting the development of its young professionals abroad. It was through one of its programs that I obtained a position within NATO‘s Information and Documentation Center (NIDC) in Kyiv. Already in the Kyiv-bound airplane, an advertisement promoting the export of Ukrainian women to the USA on a government issued in-flight immigration card signaled there is much to learn about the powers that be (Appendix A). The time in Ukraine was of enormous importance to my intellectual development and indeed to the eventual completion of this book. I next need to thank Michel Duray who, as Director of NIDC, entrusted me with responsibilities that enabled me to learn a lot. The Orange Revolution exposed me to numerous insights including the work of a forthright diplomat, the Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Boris Tarasyuk. Thanks to him, and his colleagues at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Integration, I was able to gain a better understanding of post-Soviet politics, especially as they affect Ukraine. I am also much indebted to the late Serhiy Danilov. He taught me a lot about Soviet humor, the need to oppose oppression and coercion and, moreover, about the need to choose one‘s battles wisely. Sadly missed; you continue to inspire. iii My understanding of the political situation in The Autonomous Republic of Crimea, particularly as it pertains to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, has been greatly enhanced by Vice Admiral Volodymyr Bezkorovainiy who was wonderfully generous with his time and never failed to give me helpful advice. Ambassador Victor Semenov, I need to thank for being candid. I also want to thank Gregoriy Perepelytsia, Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute at Ukraine‘s Diplomatic Academy. Sergei Kulyk Director of NOMOS in Sevastopol allowed me to work in his office and brought me into contact with a number of people who were able to relate some of their travails. I also thank Oleg Yatsenko and Vadim ―Sheriff‖ who made an extraordinarily deep impression. This book would also not be what it is today were it not for the dedicated people at Harvard‘s National Security Program, particularly the astute Director of the Harvard Black Sea Security Program, Sergei Konoplyov, whom I thank for inviting me to the program as a visiting fellow. His work and manner of thinking promote international peace. They have left a deep, lasting mark on my own. The process of writing a PhD is long and filled with many laborious hours of reading. I was particularly inspired by the works of Roy Godson (Georgetown University) and Alfredo Schulte-Bockholt (St. Mary‘s University, Halifax), whose studies continue to be a model for me. Various people at the University of Groningen deserve mentioning. They made the writing process not only tolerable but actually enjoyable: Erica van Boven had an interesting PhD graduate program, became a confidant and friend; Andrej Zwitter shared his valuable opinions and ideas with me; Jarno Hoving was wonderful company; Vincent Boxelaar impressed me with his sundry skills and I am indebted; Laura Janssen and Margriet Drent motivated me with their dedication to individual and state security; Gorus van Oordt and Marijke Wubbolts for outstanding professionalism. No list of acknowledgements would be complete without an expression of my deepest gratitude to my friends and family who have supported me with encouragement, honesty and love: Pater Floor de Graauw; Eric Arnold; Yaromyr Oryshkevych; and the Voormalig Klein Poortje posse Aart, Vincent, Wouter, Peter and, particularly, Ron, Gea, and Jasper. Above all, my mother for believing in me and supporting me unconditionally, my father for teaching me fortitude, Oleh for being a
Recommended publications
  • Boris Nemtsov 27 February 2015 Moscow, Russia
    Boris Nemtsov 27 February 2015 Moscow, Russia the fight against corruption, embezzlement and fraud, claiming that the whole system built by Putin was akin to a mafia. In 2009, he discovered that one of Putin’s allies, Mayor of Moscow City Yury Luzhkov, BORIS and his wife, Yelena Baturina, were engaged in fraudulent business practices. According to the results of his investigation, Baturina had become a billionaire with the help of her husband’s connections. Her real-estate devel- opment company, Inteco, had invested in the construction of dozens of housing complexes in Moscow. Other investors were keen to part- ner with Baturina because she was able to use NEMTSOV her networks to secure permission from the Moscow government to build apartment build- ings, which were the most problematic and It was nearing midnight on 27 February 2015, and the expensive construction projects for developers. stars atop the Kremlin towers shone with their charac- Nemtsov’s report revealed the success of teristic bright-red light. Boris Nemtsov and his partner, Baturina’s business empire to be related to the Anna Duritskaya, were walking along Bolshoy Moskovo- tax benefits she received directly from Moscow retsky Bridge. It was a cold night, and the view from the City government and from lucrative govern- bridge would have been breathtaking. ment tenders won by Inteco. A snowplough passed slowly by the couple, obscuring the scene and probably muffling the sound of the gunshots fired from a side stairway to the bridge. The 55-year-old Nemtsov, a well-known Russian politician, anti-corrup- tion activist and a fierce critic of Vladimir Putin, fell to the ground with four bullets in his back.
    [Show full text]
  • Organized Crime 1.1 Gaizer’S Criminal Group
    INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER I. ORGANIZED CRIME 1.1 Gaizer’s Criminal Group ..................................................................................6 1.2 Bandits in St. Petersburg ............................................................................ 10 1.3 The Tsapok Gang .......................................................................................... 14 Chapter II.CThe Corrupt Officials 2.1 «I Fell in Love with a Criminal» ................................................................20 2.2 Female Thief with a Birkin Bag ...............................................................24 2.3 «Moscow Crime Boss».................................................................................29 CONTENTS CHAPTER III. THE BRibE-TAKERS 3.1 Governor Khoroshavin’s medal «THE CRIMINAL RUSSIA PARTY», AN INDEPENDENT EXPERT REPORT «For Merit to the Fatherland» ..................................................................32 PUBLISHED IN MOSCOW, AUGUST 2016 3.2 The Astrakhan Brigade ...............................................................................36 AUTHOR: ILYA YASHIN 3.3 A Character from the 1990s ......................................................................39 MATERiaL COMPILING: VERONIKA SHULGINA HAPTER HE ROOKS TRANSLATION: C 4. T C EVGENia KARA-MURZA 4.1 Governor Nicknamed Hans .......................................................................42 GRAPHICS: PavEL YELIZAROV 4.2 The Party
    [Show full text]
  • Presidential Election in Ukraine Implications for the Ukrainian Transition Presidential Election in Ukraine Implications for the Ukrainian Transition
    Helmut Kurth/Iris Kempe (Ed.) PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN UKRAINE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UKRAINIAN TRANSITION PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN UKRAINE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UKRAINIAN TRANSITION KIEV – 2004 The following texts are preliminary versions. Necessary corrections and updates will be undertaken once the results of the election process are final. These preliminary versions are not for quotation or citation, and may only be used with the express written consent of the authors. CONTENTS Preface ................................................................................. 5 Timm Beichelt/Rostyslav Pavlenko Presidential Election and Constitutional Reforms in Ukraine ............................................................................ 7 Olaf Hillenbrand Consensus-Building and Good Governance – a Framework for Democratic Transition ........................... 44 Oleksandr Dergachov Formation of Democratic Consensus and Good Governance ....................................................... 71 Oleksandr Sushko/Oles Lisnychuk The 2004 Presidential Campaign as a Sign of Political Evolution in Ukraine....................................... 87 Iris Kempe/Iryna Solonenko International Orientation and Foreign Support of the Presidential Elections ............................................ 107 5 Preface Long before Kiev’s Independence Square became a sea of orange, it was clear to close observers that the presidential election in 2004 would not only be extremely close and hard fought, but also decisive for the country’s future development. Discussions
    [Show full text]
  • Olena Semenyaka, the “First Lady” of Ukrainian Nationalism
    Olena Semenyaka, The “First Lady” of Ukrainian Nationalism Adrien Nonjon Illiberalism Studies Program Working Papers, September 2020 For years, Ukrainian nationalist movements such as Svoboda or Pravyi Sektor were promoting an introverted, state-centered nationalism inherited from the early 1930s’ Ukrainian Nationalist Organization (Orhanizatsiia Ukrayins'kykh Natsionalistiv) and largely dominated by Western Ukrainian and Galician nationalist worldviews. The EuroMaidan revolution, Crimea’s annexation by Russia, and the war in Donbas changed the paradigm of Ukrainian nationalism, giving birth to the Azov movement. The Azov National Corps (Natsional’nyj korpus), led by Andriy Biletsky, was created on October 16, 2014, on the basis of the Azov regiment, now integrated into the Ukrainian National Guard. The Azov National Corps is now a nationalist party claiming around 10,000 members and deployed in Ukrainian society through various initiatives, such as patriotic training camps for children (Azovets) and militia groups (Natsional’ny druzhiny). Azov can be described as a neo- nationalism, in tune with current European far-right transformations: it refuses to be locked into old- fashioned myths obsessed with a colonial relationship to Russia, and it sees itself as outward-looking in that its intellectual framework goes beyond Ukraine’s territory, deliberately engaging pan- European strategies. Olena Semenyaka (b. 1987) is the female figurehead of the Azov movement: she has been the international secretary of the National Corps since 2018 (and de facto leader since the party’s very foundation in 2016) while leading the publishing house and metapolitical club Plomin (Flame). Gaining in visibility as the Azov regiment transformed into a multifaceted movement, Semenyaka has become a major nationalist theorist in Ukraine.
    [Show full text]
  • The Long Arm of Vladimir Putin: How the Kremlin Uses Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties to Target Its Opposition Abroad
    The Long Arm of Vladimir Putin: How the Kremlin Uses Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties to Target its Opposition Abroad Russia Studies Centre Policy Paper No. 5 (2015) Dr Andrew Foxall The Henry Jackson Society June 2015 THE LONG ARM OF VLADIMIR PUTIN Summary Over the past 15 years, there has been – and continues to be – significant interchange between Western and Russian law-enforcement agencies, even in cases where Russia’s requests for legal assistance have been politicaLLy motivated. Though it is the Kremlin’s warfare that garners the West’s attention, its ‘lawfare’ poses just as significant a threat because it undermines the rule of law. One of the chief weapons in Russia’s ‘lawfare’ is the so-called ‘Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty’ (MLAT), a bilateral agreement that defines how countries co-operate on legal matters. TypicaLLy, the Kremlin will fabricate a criminaL case against an individual, and then request, through the MLAT system, the co-operation of Western countries in its attempts to persecute said person. Though Putin’s regime has been mounting, since 2012, an escalating campaign against opposition figures, the Kremlin’s use of ‘lawfare’ is nothing new. Long before then, Russia requested – and received – legal assistance from Western countries on a number of occasions, in its efforts to extradite opposition figures back to Russia. Western countries have complied with Russia’s requests for legal assistance in some of the most brazen and high-profile politicaLLy motivated cases in recent history, incLuding: individuals linked with Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the Yukos affair; Bill Browder and others connecteD to Hermitage Capital Management; and AnDrey Borodin and Bank of Moscow.
    [Show full text]
  • Organized Crime – Definition, Players and Global Threat
    Transnational Crime MSCR 640 Regis University Week 2 Post-Soviet “Russian” Organized Crime – Definition, Players and Global Threat John Giduck © By John Giduck, all rights reserved, 1995, 2017 1 The Need of Define ROC. One of the greatest difficulties facing those individuals and organizations which must deal with the impact of Russian Organized Crime (ROC) is answering the question, exactly what is Russian organized crime? This difficulty derives in part from the extreme secrecy with which ROC members have always functioned; and has been exacerbated by both news media and law enforcement agencies, whose own particular ends are better served by sensationalized and exaggerated accounts of ROC membership, rising numbers of groups, types and frequency of various crimes. What remains missing is a clear understanding of what exactly Russian organized crime and ROC groups are. Certainly, the media of the 1990s, in reporting incidents of street crime and overall rising crime rates in Russia, utilized a liberal construction of this term, it then being in vogue to blame much on the mafiya. In reality, it will be seen that there are actually many layers of crime in Russia, a number of which are not, and have never been, mafiya controlled.1 Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991, news media accounts of an increasing crime rate paralleled rising estimates of the number of actual ROC groups and numbers. Rarely a month went by in the three years after the USSR’s collapse that some newspaper, magazine or television show did not proffer a statistic on the number of ROC groups operating across Russia that was not substantially greater than those previously reported.
    [Show full text]
  • Xenophobia, Freedom of Conscience and Anti-Extremism in Russia in 2007
    SOVA CENTER FOR INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS Xenophobia, Freedom of Conscience and Anti-Extremism in Russia in 2007 A collection of annual reports by the SOVA Center for Information and Analysis Moscow May 2008 UDC 323.1(470+571)(082.1)”2007” BBC 66.094я43+66.3(2Рос),54я43 X44 X44 Xenophobia, Freedom of Conscience and Anti-Extremism in Russia in 2007: A collection of annual reports by the SOVA Center for Information and Analysis / [Alexander Verkhovsky, Contents Galina Kozhevnikova, Olga Sibireva; translation – I. Savelieva] – М.: SOVA Center, 2008. – 140 pp.: tables (Academic publication) Galina Kozhevnikova ISBN 978-5-98418-011-5 Radical Nationalism and Efforts to Counteract it in 2007 ............................ 5 This collection of reports summarizes all the major areas of work addressed by the Summary ............................................................................................ 5 SOVA Center for Information and Analysis in 2007. Manifestations of radical nationalism ...................................................6 The first report addresses pressing issues such as the growth of nationalism, hate crime, and the efforts of government and society to combat these problems. Annual reports on these Counteraction to radical nationalism ................................................. 31 themes are included in other collections published by the SOVA Center. Anti-fascist rhetoric used to discredit political opponents ................... 42 The second report focuses on the increasingly visible tendency to misuse legislation against what is now referred to as ‘extremism’. The third report explores various problems relating to freedom of conscience in contem- Alexander Verkhovsky porary Russia. This is the second annual report of the SOVA Center on this topic. These reports were compiled at the end of March 2008. This translation of the pub- Anti-Extremist Legislation, its Use and Misuse ........................................
    [Show full text]
  • Managed Nationalism: Contemporary Russian Nationalistic Movements
    88 FIIA Working Paper August 2015 Veera Laine MANAGED NATIONALISM CONTEMPORARY RUSSIAN NATIONALISTIC MOVEMENTS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO THE GOVERNMENT Veera Laine Research Fellow The Finnish Institute of International Affairs The Finnish Institute of International Affairs Kruunuvuorenkatu 4 FI-00160 Helsinki tel. +358 9 432 7000 fax. +358 9 432 7799 www.fiia.fi ISBN: 978-951-769-460-5 ISSN: 2242-0444 Language editing: Lynn Nikkanen The Finnish Institute of International Affairs is an independent research institute that produces high-level research to support political decision-making and public debate both nationally and internationally. All manuscripts are reviewed by at least two other experts in the field to ensure the high quality of the publications. In addition, publications undergo professional language checking and editing. The responsibility for the views expressed ultimately rests with the authors. TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY 4 1 INTRODUCTION 5 1.1 Research design and data used 6 1.2 Concepts and structure of the paper 9 2 THE IDEOLOGY OF THE NATIONALIST MOVEMENTS 12 2.1 The Eurasian Youth Union and the Russian March as examples of nationalism 15 2.2 The example movements’ ideas as presented today 18 2.3 EuroMaidan, Crimea, and “Novorossiya” 21 2.4 General notes on the Internet presence 23 2.5 The ideological basis of the movements 23 3 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE STATE AND THE NATIONALISTS 25 3.1 Electoral protests 2011–2012 – the “Bolotnaya case” 25 3.2 Ethnic riots in Moscow in 2013 – the “Biryulevo case” 27 3.3 Russian Marches in Moscow in 2014 29 3.4 “Antimaidan” and the Russian Spring 32 4 CONCLUSIONS: MANAGED NATIONALISM – HOW IS IT ACHIEVED? 35 BIBLIOGRAPHY 37 3 SUMMARY This paper argues that nationalist movements in Russia can have a certain role to play in the Kremlin’s management of nationalism in the country, despite the fact that they might promote a very different form of nationalism than the state leadership itself.
    [Show full text]
  • Organized Crime in Russia and United States National Security
    Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1996-12 Organized crime in Russia and United States national security Ljuba, Paul J. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/32003 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS ORGANIZED CRIME IN RUSSIA AND UNITED STATES NATIONAL SECURITY by Paul J. Ljuba December 1996 Thesis Advisor: Mikhail Tsypkin Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited • REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reponing burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of infonnation. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Infonnation Operations and Repons, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 1996 Master's Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Organized Crime in Russia and United States National 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Security 6. AUTHOR Ljuba, Paul 1. 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Illicit Drug Trends in the Russian Federation
    UNITED NATIONS THE PARIS PACT INITIATIVE Office on Drugs and Crime A partnership to counter traffic in Regional Office for Russia and Belarus and consumption of Afghan opiates Illicit Drug Trends in the Russian Federation April 2008 2 Acknowledgments The Paris Pact Illicit Drug Trends Report for Russia and Belarus was prepared by the Paris Pact National Strategic Analyst of the UNODC Regional Office for Russia and Belarus and benefited from the work and expertise of officials from the UNODC Regional Office for Central Asia. In particular, the following UNODC officials contributed to the preparation of this report: Alexandre Schmidt, Officer-in-Charge, Regional Office Russia and Belarus; Vladimir Ibragimov, Paris Pact National Strategic Analyst, Regional Office Russia and Belarus; and Hakan Demirbuken, Regional Monitoring Expert for South-West Asia, Research and Analysis Section, Regional Office for Central Asia. The Paris Pact is an international partnership to combat traffic in and abuse of Afghan opiates. At the first Ministerial Conference on Drug Routes from Central Asia to Europe, held in Paris in May 2003, more than 60 countries and international organizations agreed to join forces in order to limit the flow of opiates from Afghanistan to and through all countries along the smuggling routes. At the second Ministerial Conference on Drug Trafficking Routes from Afghanistan held in Moscow in June 2006 partners reiterated the need for enhanced and coordinated counter narcotics action to reduce opiates trafficking, consumption and related health problems in the region. UNODC is leading the follow-up to these Ministerial Conferences through the Paris Pact Initiative, a project that facilitates periodical consultations at the expert and policy level and also aims to strengthen data collection and analytical capacities in and around Afghanistan.
    [Show full text]
  • Internal Balance of Power in Russia and the Survival of Lukashenko’S Regime
    81 FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE: INTERNAL BALANCE OF POWER IN RUSSIA AND THE SURVIVAL OF LUKASHENKO’S REGIME Laurynas Jonavičius* Abstract This article analyses the relationship between the stability of Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule and the power balance of different factions competing for power in Russia. The article aims to demonstrate that Lukashenko’s survival not only depends on his ability to trade on Belarus’s geopolitical position between Russia and the West but is also is a function of the existing composition of the ruling elite in Moscow. Being increasingly dependent on Russia’s political and economic support as well as on its energy, Lukashenko manages to use Russia’s internal situation of informal political competition by supporting one or another side. Historically, Lukashenko relied on the support and cooperation of groups that were associated with soviet nostalgia, interests in increasing the state’s role in political and economic life as well as representatives of military and military-industrial complex in Russia. Changes to the balance of power within Russia, the withdrawal of older factions and the entrenchment of new ones, has significantly decreased Lukashenko’s ability to manoeuvre in Russian political life and has minimised his ability to manipulate the competition among the Russian power elite. While retaining some leverages and sporadic contacts with the siloviki faction in Russia, Lukashenko faces more and more difficulties in defending his country’s sovereignty and his own autonomy. Introduction Lukashenko does not love Russia; he loves power. The paradox is that Lukashen- ko needs Russia to remain in power, yet Russia is also the only player capable of removing him from power.
    [Show full text]
  • Dissertation Final Aug 31 Formatted
    Identity Gerrymandering: How the Armenian State Constructs and Controls “Its” Diaspora by Kristin Talinn Rebecca Cavoukian A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science University of Toronto © Copyright by Kristin Cavoukian 2016 Identity Gerrymandering: How the Armenian State Constructs and Controls “Its” Diaspora Kristin Talinn Rebecca Cavoukian Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science University of Toronto 2016 Abstract This dissertation examines the Republic of Armenia (RA) and its elites’ attempts to reframe state-diaspora relations in ways that served state interests. After 17 years of relatively rocky relations, in 2008, a new Ministry of Diaspora was created that offered little in the way of policy output. Instead, it engaged in “identity gerrymandering,” broadening the category of diaspora from its accepted reference to post-1915 genocide refugees and their descendants, to include Armenians living throughout the post-Soviet region who had never identified as such. This diluted the pool of critical, oppositional diasporans with culturally closer and more compliant emigrants. The new ministry also favoured geographically based, hierarchical diaspora organizations, and “quiet” strategies of dissent. Since these were ultimately attempts to define membership in the nation, and informal, affective ties to the state, the Ministry of Diaspora acted as a “discursive power ministry,” with boundary-defining and maintenance functions reminiscent of the physical border policing functions of traditional power ministries. These efforts were directed at three different “diasporas:” the Armenians of Russia, whom RA elites wished to mold into the new “model” diaspora, the Armenians of Georgia, whose indigeneity claims they sought to discourage, and the “established” western diaspora, whose contentious public ii critique they sought to disarm.
    [Show full text]