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Subsidy Cut for NEV Bus Impacts Earnings Outlook; Down to Neutral

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Subsidy Cut for NEV Bus Impacts Earnings Outlook; Down to Neutral January 13, 2017 ACTION Removed from Asia Pacific Buy List BYD Co. (1211.HK) Equity Research Subsidy cut for NEV bus impacts earnings outlook; down to Neutral What happened Investment Profile We lower our TP and downgrade BYD to Neutral (from Buy) following the Low High reduced 2017 subsidies for new energy vehicles (particularly NEV bus), Growth Growth Returns * Returns * announced on Dec 30. Our revised TP implies 2% upside vs. -1% coverage Multiple Multiple avg. and we find current valuation fair given (1) its 1.9X 12m forward P/B is Volatility Volatility within historical median -1std; (2) the NEV business (incl. EV battery) trades Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th at 1.4X P/S and 14.4X P/E 2020E, vs. Tesla’s 1.5X and 25.0X; and (3) weaker BYD Co. (1211.HK) growth outlook post 2017 NEV policy announcement. Since reinstating Asia Pacific Autos & Autoparts Peer Group Average * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment coverage of BYD at Buy on Aug 31, 2016, the stock is -20% vs. the HSCEI profile measures please refer to the +2% as a result of uncertainties surrounding the NEV subsidy policy. disclosure section of this document. Key data Current Current view Price (HK$) 43.45 As per the latest NEV subsidy policy for 2017: (1) maximum central 12 month price target (HK$) 44.52 Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 89,076.8 / 11,487.2 government subsidy for NEV bus is to be cut by 25%-70%; (2) local Foreign ownership (%) -- government subsidy not to exceed 50% of central government subsidy; 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E (3) NEV passenger car subsidy to be cut by 20% as expected, maximum EPS (Rmb) New 1.14 2.00 2.13 2.91 NEV truck/special purpose vehicle subsidy to be increased, and fuel cell EPS revision (%) 0.0 1.0 (14.8) (9.1) EPS growth (%) 537.9 75.4 6.3 37.0 vehicle subsidy to stay unchanged; (4) technology qualification standard to EPS (dil) (Rmb) New 1.14 2.00 2.13 2.91 P/E (X) 28.7 19.3 18.2 13.3 be hiked (battery energy density, mileage, fast charge ratio, etc.). P/B (X) 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 12.9 8.5 8.5 7.7 We lower our 2017E-2019E EPS by 15%/9%/9% respectively. We estimate Dividend yield (%) 0.0 1.6 1.4 1.9 ROE (%) 9.8 12.5 11.1 13.8 that BYD’s NEV bus OPM will fall from 25.7% in 2016E to 16.2% in 2017E, CROCI (%) 14.1 13.2 12.9 13.4 and its overall NEV OPM will decline from 18.5% to 14.9%, with the subsidy cut partly offset by NEV credit income (estimated at 4.0%/ 3.5%/ Price performance chart 60 10,500 3.0% of 2018-2020 NEV passenger car revenues). 55 10,000 Valuation: Our 12-month target price for BYD of HK$44.52 (down 25% 50 9,500 from HK$59.45) is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation methodology. 45 9,000 40 8,500 Key risks: Higher/lower total NEV market size/BYD market share in the 35 8,000 NEV space; higher/lower NEV credit income; higher/lower cost saving esp. 30 7,500 on the battery side; higher ASP/OPM for NEV bus if BYD is able to pass on Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 some subsidy reduction to the buyers; quicker/slower sales ramp-up in the BYD Co. (L) Hang Seng China Ent. Index (R) new monorail business. INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute (14.4) (8.9) 19.2 Neutral Rel. to Hang Seng China Ent. Index (14.8) (17.0) 3.5 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 1/12/2017 close. Coverage View: Neutral Yipeng Yang +86(10)6627-3189 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies Yuqian Ding covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be +86(10)6627-3327 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could Longjin Li affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider +65-6654-5141 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research January 13, 2017 BYD Co. (1211.HK) BYD Co.: Summary Financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Total revenue 77,612.0 101,672.3 115,852.9 137,286.3 Cash & equivalents 6,010.9 16,042.5 16,047.1 15,474.3 Cost of goods sold (60,439.1) (76,125.6) (87,612.0) (104,507.1) Accounts receivable 27,164.7 34,750.4 38,644.9 45,794.4 SG&A (8,659.2) (11,343.6) (13,215.4) (16,346.7) Inventory 15,750.6 19,838.5 22,831.8 27,234.7 R&D -- -- -- -- Other current assets 5,592.9 6,152.2 6,459.8 6,782.8 Other operating profit/(expense) 499.7 654.7 630.1 746.7 Total current assets 54,519.1 76,783.5 83,983.7 95,286.3 EBITDA 9,013.4 14,857.8 15,655.7 17,179.2 Net PP&E 39,039.0 43,457.8 46,069.0 48,292.2 Depreciation & amortization (5,313.6) (6,475.7) (6,726.9) (6,945.3) Net intangibles 7,168.7 5,927.7 4,686.8 3,445.8 EBIT 3,699.8 8,382.0 8,928.7 10,233.9 Total investments 4,960.1 4,834.3 4,720.2 4,643.0 Interest income 53.4 120.2 320.8 320.9 Other long-term assets 9,798.8 10,778.7 11,317.7 11,883.5 Interest expense (1,517.0) (1,595.5) (1,471.0) (1,411.7) Total assets 115,485.8 141,782.0 150,777.3 163,550.7 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 1,555.8 (151.1) (139.4) 1,233.3 Accounts payable 30,655.8 35,483.8 39,637.7 45,849.9 Pretax profits 3,795.0 6,755.6 7,639.2 10,376.5 Short-term debt 26,412.9 27,412.9 27,212.9 26,512.9 Income tax (656.8) (1,183.6) (1,376.6) (1,921.8) Other current liabilities 9,041.4 10,770.5 10,492.1 11,028.5 Minorities (314.8) (400.8) (460.1) (506.5) Total current liabilities 66,110.1 73,667.2 77,342.6 83,391.2 Long-term debt 11,229.9 11,229.9 11,229.9 11,029.9 Net income pre-preferred dividends 2,823.4 5,171.2 5,802.5 7,948.2 Other long-term liabilities 2,116.5 2,539.8 3,047.7 3,504.9 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 13,346.4 13,769.7 14,277.6 14,534.8 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 2,823.4 5,171.2 5,802.5 7,948.2 Total liabilities 79,456.5 87,436.9 91,620.3 97,926.0 Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 2,823.4 5,171.2 5,802.5 7,948.2 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 32,294.4 50,209.5 54,561.3 60,522.5 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 1.14 2.00 2.13 2.91 Minority interest 3,734.8 4,135.7 4,595.7 5,102.2 EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) 1.14 2.00 2.13 2.91 EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) 1.14 2.00 2.13 2.91 Total liabilities & equity 115,485.8 141,782.0 150,777.3 163,550.7 DPS (Rmb) 0.000.630.530.73 Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 31.7 25.0 25.0 BVPS (Rmb) 13.04 18.40 20.00 22.18 Free cash flow yield (%) (2.6) (5.6) 1.9 2.1 Growth & margins (%) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Ratios 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Sales growth 40.2 31.0 13.9 18.5 CROCI (%) 14.1 13.2 12.9 13.4 EBITDA growth 46.8 64.8 5.4 9.7 ROE (%) 9.8 12.5 11.1 13.8 EBIT growth 91.8 126.6 6.5 14.6 ROA (%) 2.7 4.0 4.0 5.1 Net income growth 551.3 83.2 12.2 37.0 ROACE (%) 7.1 9.4 9.1 11.0 EPS growth 537.9 75.4 6.3 37.0 Inventory days 77.7 85.3 88.9 87.4 Gross margin 22.1 25.1 24.4 23.9 Receivables days 117.3 111.1 115.6 112.2 EBITDA margin 11.6 14.6 13.5 12.5 Payable days 170.6 158.6 156.5 149.3 EBIT margin 4.8 8.2 7.7 7.5 Net debt/equity (%) 87.8 41.6 37.9 33.6 Interest cover - EBIT (X) 2.5 5.7 7.8 9.4 Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Valuation 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Net income pre-preferred dividends 2,823.4 5,171.2 5,802.5 7,948.2 D&A add-back 5,313.6 6,475.7 6,726.9 6,945.3 P/E (analyst) (X) 28.7 19.3 18.2 13.3 Minorities interests add-back 314.8 400.8 460.1 506.5 P/B (X) 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 Net (inc)/dec working capital (5,915.3) (6,845.5) (2,734.0) (5,340.3) EV/EBITDA (X) 12.9 8.5 8.5 7.7 Other operating cash flow 1,305.6 (864.7) (99.2) (229.1) EV/GCI (X) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Cash flow from operations 3,842.1 4,337.4 10,156.3 9,830.6 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 1.6 1.4 1.9 Capital expenditures (6,072.5) (10,167.2) (8,109.7) (7,550.7) Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Divestitures 1,808.6 904.3 452.1 0.0 Others (6,472.5) (514.9) (618.7) (620.7) Cash flow from investments (10,736.5) (9,777.8) (8,276.3) (8,171.5) Dividends paid (common & pref) 0.0 0.0 (1,729.1) (1,450.6) Inc/(dec) in debt 10,465.6 1,000.0 (200.0) (900.0) Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.0 14,473.0 0.0 0.0 Other financing cash flows (1,510.7) (1.1) 53.8 118.7 Cash flow from financing 8,954.9 15,471.9 (1,875.3) (2,231.9) Total cash flow 2,060.5 10,031.5 4.7 (572.8) Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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