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Space Transportation Technology Roadmap WWW.NASAWATCH.COM Space Transportation Technology Roadmap A Collaboration by Government and Industry To Address U.S. Government and Commercial Space Transportation Needs Release 1.0 21 October 2010 WWW.NASAWATCH.COM WWW.NASAWATCH.COM Please direct any suggestions on this roadmap to: Paul E. Damphousse LtCol, USMC Chief of Advanced Concepts National Security Space Office Pentagon, Washington DC / Fairfax, VA W (571) 432-1411 C (571) 405-0749 [email protected] - 1 - WWW.NASAWATCH.COM WWW.NASAWATCH.COM Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY....................................................................................................... …6 1 ROADMAP OBJECTIVES.................................................................................................... ....8 2 ROADMAP BACKGROUND............................................................................................... ..10 3 ROADMAP METHODOLOGY............................................................................................ ..18 3.1 MODELS AND REFERENCES EMPLOYED FOR THE ROADMAP…………..… ..18 3.1.1 FUNDAMENTALS OF TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING…………………. ..18 3.1.2 DOD RECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENTS DESKBOOK……….....18 3.1.3 SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER STUDY…………………………………… ..19 4 PHASE 1: PRELIMINARY FOUNDATION PHASE.......................................................... ..20 4.1 SATISFYING THREE (3) ESSENTIAL CONDITIONS............................................. ..20 4.1.1 THE THREE CONDITIONS DEFINED………………………………………. ..20 4.1.2 ASSUMING THE 1ST CONDITION IS MET…………………………………. ..20 4.1.3 ADDRESSING THE 2ND AND 3RD CONDITIONS…………………………... ..20 4.2 GOV AND INDUSTRY INCLUSIVITY – THE 2ND CONDITION…..……………. ..21 4.2.1 EVENTS AND ACTIVITIES – OVERVIEW…………………………………. ..21 4.2.1.1 SUSTAIN CONOPS CONFERENCE…………………………………… ..21 4.2.1.2 SUSTAIN TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE……………………………. ..21 4.2.1.3 AIR FORCE REQUEST FOR INFORMATION………………………… ..21 4.2.1.4 INDUSTRY RESPONSE TO FIRST DRAFT OF TECH ROADMAP…. ..21 4.2.2 ROADMAP DEVELOPMENT PARTICIPANTS…………………………….. ..21 4.2.2.1 GOVERNMENT PARTICIPANTS……………………………………… ..22 4.2.2.2 INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS…………………………………………… ..22 4.2.2.3 ROADMAP CO-AUTHORS ……………………………………………. ..22 4.2.3 SUSTAIN CONOPS CONFERENCE - PARTICIPANT INPUT INCL………. ..23 4.2.3.1 SUSTAIN CONOPS CONFERENCE CONDUCT…………………….. ..23 4.2.3.2 SUSTAIN CONOPS CONFERENCE OUTCOME…………………….. ..23 4.2.4 SUSTAIN TECH CONFERENCE - PARTICIPANT INPUT INCLUSION….. ..23 4.2.4.1 – 4.2.4.32 INCLUSIVE GOV AND IND ROADMAP INPUTS…….....23-95 4.2.4.33 SUSTAIN TECH CONF BREAK-OUT GROUP DISCUSS…...….. 95-114 4.2.4.34 SUSTAIN TECH CONFERENCE OUTCOME………………………. 114 4.2.5 THE AIR FORCE REQUEST FOR INFORMATION (RFI)…………….…..... 114 4.2.6 RFI – NEAR-TERM SOLUTIONS – RESPONDENT INPUT ……….......115-125 4.2.7 RFI – LONG-TERM CONCEPTS - RESPONDENT INPUT …………….125-134 4.3 GOV & INDUSTRY SPACE TRANSPORT NEEDS – THE 3RD CONDITION…… 134 4.3.1 NATIONAL SECURITY SPACE TRANSPORTAION NEEDS……... …….... 135 4.3.2 INDUSTRY SPACE TRANSPORTATION MARKETS …………….. ……… 139 4.3.3 NASA SPACE TRANSPORTATION NEEDS………………………... ……… 145 4.3.4 OTHER GOVERNMENT SPACE TRANSPORTATION NEEDS………….... 150 4.4 ROADMAP LEADERSHIP AND SPONSORSHIP………………………… …….. 152 4.5 DEFINING ROADMAP VISION, SCOPE AND BOUNDARIES…. ……… ……… 152 4.5.1 PRODUCT VISION AS BOUNDING REQUIREMENTS…….…………........ 153 4.5.2 THE ROADMAP SCOPE DEFINED......……………………………………… 154 5 PHASE 2: DEVELOPMENT PHASE....................................................................... …….... 156 5.1 DEFINING THE PRODUCT THAT FOCUSES THE ROADMAP................ ……… 156 - 2 - WWW.NASAWATCH.COM WWW.NASAWATCH.COM 5.2 CRITICAL SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS AND THEIR TARGETS............... ……. 159 5.3 MAJOR TECHNOLOGY AREAS (MTA)....................................................... ……. 159 5.3.1 MTA I: SINGLE STAGE AND UPPER STAGE TRANSPORT VEHICLES....161 5.3.2 MTA II: LAUNCH AND BOOSTER VEHICLES…...…………….………….. 161 5.3.3 MTA III: SPACE TRANSPORTATION ENABLEMENT…………………..... 162 5.3.4 MTA IV: MANNED SPACE TRANSPORT, INSERT AND EXTRACT......... 162 5.4 TECHNOLOGY TARGETS………………………….………………………………162 5.5 TECHNOLOGY ALTERNATIVES……………………………………………….... 162 5.6 GRAPHIC TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP DEPICTIONS…………...…………........ 163 5.7 GRAPHIC TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT PROFILES……………………..….... 166 6 PHASE 3: FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES PHASE…………………………………….…….. 170 6.1 GENERAL…………………………………………………………………………..... 170 6.2 OVERARCHING THEMES AND ASSUMPTIONS……………………….……….. 170 6.2.1 SPACE TRANPORTION AND NATIONAL STATURE………………..…… 170 6.2.2 LAWS RELEVANT TO SPACE TRANPORTION…………………...……..... 172 6.2.2.1 INTERNATIONAL LAW………………………………………………... 172 6.2.2.2 NATIONAL LAW……………………………………………………….. 173 6.2.2.3 CONCLUSIONS…………………………………………………………. 174 6.2.3 CONTRIBUTION OF SPACE TRANSPORT TO HUMAN SURVIVAL…..... 175 6.2.4 RELEVANCE OF 2009 AUGUSTINE REPORT TO THE ROADMAP…….. 177 6.2.5 ONE ARGUMENT FOR A MILITARY SPACE SERVICE………………….. 179 6.3 RECOMMENDED TECHNOLOGY THRUSTS……………………………….…… 180 7 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS……………………….... 182 ANNEX A SPACE TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP CONTACT LIST………. 187 - 3 - WWW.NASAWATCH.COM WWW.NASAWATCH.COM EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Space Transportation Technology Roadmap proposes a path that enables the U.S. to maintain indigenous full spectrum space access. In parallel it presents opportunities for cross- pollination and collaboration between Government and industry stakeholders in support of shared near, mid, and long term objectives. As a tertiary benefit, it could lead to a new generation of scientists and engineers in industry, academia, and Government, dedicated to mainstreaming space transportation for multiple missions and markets. SUSTAIN, to include an eventual reusable human-rated capability, represents one visionary objective for DoD, and served as the genesis of this roadmap. However, roadmap stakeholders concur that this particular national security application of space transportation is merely a niche in the full spectrum of utility. Furthermore, in the nearer-term much can be accomplished with mature, multi-use technologies for multiple customers and markets. Stakeholders concurred that the following can serve as starting points in defining a fully integrated and coordinated National spiral initiative addressing overlapping needs and spurring progress, namely for: . Space transportation vehicles capable of transporting cargo of up to 30,000 pounds internally sub-orbitally. In the near term internal payload capacities of 500 pounds are operationally useful for both Government and industry. Sub-orbital vehicles capable of achieving an altitude of at least 50 miles, and optimally 62.5 miles for the purpose of pop-up and limited point-to-point (P2P) missions in the near-term, and global access in later spirals. In the near term P2P missions limited to as little as 1,000 miles (500 in space) are operationally useful for some DoD missions. A family of space transportation vehicles capable of transporting cargo of up to 15,000 pounds internally to LEO. Space transportation vehicles that enable a launch cost of no more than $300 per kilogram to LEO from between the 25th and 50th Parallels, once the launch frequency is sufficient high to achieve economy of scale. Space transportation vehicles that are capable of being human-rated, with a desired objective that they are in fact human-rated in future spirals. Launch preparedness that allows mission-tailored vehicles to be launched on the order of hours following a decision to execute, with two hours as the objective. Space transportation vehicle platforms that are capable of returning to the terrestrial surface in a controlled reentry with reduced acoustic, optical, and radio frequency (RF) signatures. Space transportation vehicle platforms that are of low-cost, highly reliable, and responsive. Space transportation vehicle platforms that in the near-term make use of mature expendable launch and upper stage technologies, and have as a spiral development objective fully reusable launch and upper stage systems. - 4 - WWW.NASAWATCH.COM WWW.NASAWATCH.COM . A family of space transportation capabilities that employ variety of complimentary technical approaches. These include, vertical and horizontal launch (towed, piggy-back, Bimese), vertical and horizontal landing, ground/sea/air launch, orbital and suborbital space injection, and modular platform reconfiguration. This need is based on the shared perspective that no single technical option will enable the fulfillment of all space transportation user needs. Space transportation vehicle platforms having the ability to modify flight plans mid-mission, whether they are pop-up, short-range P2P, global P2P, or LEO missions. The roadmap development participants concurred that the following major technology areas (MTAs) and their associated enabling critical technology elements (CTEs) must be developed as a prerequisite to fulfilling the aforementioned overlapping requirements. MTA I: Single Stage and Upper Stage Transport Vehicles. CTEs: 1) Vertical Take Off and Vertical Landing; 2) Vertical Take Off and Horizontal Landing; 3) Horizontal Take Off and Horizontal Landing; and 4) Horizontal Take Off and Vertical Landing. MTA II: Launch and Booster Vehicles. CTEs: 1) Vertical Booster Stack; 2) Vertical Parallel Stage (Shuttle Derivatives); 3) Vertical Bimese; 4) Horizontal Mothership; 5) Horizontal Piggy-Back; and 6) Horizontal Bimese Launch. MTA III: Space Transportation Technological Enablement. CTEs: 1) Materials; 2) Rocket, and 3) Air-Breathing Hypersonic Propulsion; 4) Fuel; 5) Electrical Power Generation
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