E PRC's New Strategic Narrative As

March 2021 OCCASIONAL PAPER Volume 1, Number 3 e PRC’s New Strategic Narrative as Political Warfare: Causes and Implications for the United States Dr. Bradley A. ayer NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY The PRC’s New Strategic Narrative as Political Warfare: Causes and Implications for the United States Bradley A. Thayer National Institute Press® Published by National Institute Press® 9302 Lee Highway, Suite 750 Fairfax, Virginia 22031 Copyright © 2021 by National Institute Press® All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by an electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, and recording or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. The views expressed in this book are the author’s alone and do not represent any institution with which he is or has been affiliated. Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................. v Introduction and Significance ................................................. 1 The Causes of China’s Strategic Narrative: Maximize Support for China’s Dominance, Minimize Resistance to It ........................................................................... 5 Historical PRC Strategic Narratives Employed to Disguise China’s Power and Ambition .............................. 5 The “China Dream” Strategic Narrative ............................ 9 “The Common Destiny of Mankind:” The Strategic Narrative Necessary to Realize China’s Hegemonic Ambitions .............................................................................. 14 The PRC Is Experimenting with Other Strategic Narratives ............................................................................. 20 Implications for United States Decision-Makers ................ 23 Conclusions .............................................................................. 31 About the Author .................................................................... 35 Executive Summary This concise analysis explains the changes in China’s strategic narrative under the Xi Jinping regime from the “China Dream” to the “Common Destiny of Mankind” (CDM). The new CDM strategic narrative is caused by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) leadership’s need to project an inspiring and benign vision for international politics to international audiences and to gain support for the PRC’s strategic objectives, while simultaneously masking the PRC’s hegemonic ambitions. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) maintains the “China Dream” (a prosperous, stable CCP-controlled China, dominating the world) as its strategic loadstar for domestic audiences. For both audiences, it now advances a common destiny for all states and peoples: the “Common Destiny of Mankind” strategic narrative. This is a momentous development in the PRC’s political warfare against the United States. For the first time, the PRC is advancing a global narrative to combat the U.S. globally, including in the West. The PRC has executed this change for five reasons. First, the CDM strategic narrative allows China to “reset the clock,” and start a new dialogue with all audiences in international politics unfettered by the ideologies of the West. No longer will China be focused solely on concerns of economic growth, Maoism, or avenging the national humiliations of China’s “Dark Age” since the First Opium War’s conclusion in 1842. CDM marks the end of China’s strategic “tone deafness”: the expectation that the world will recognize—of its own accord—the greatness of China. Second, Beijing’s influence has grown because it has more power. However, its abuses in the application of that power, such as “debt-trap” agreements, have hindered its position in global politics. The strategic narratives advanced—Maoism, Dengism, or “China Dream,” have The PRC’s New Strategic Narrative as Political Warfare vi failed because they equated China’s advances and interests as the sole concern of China’s engagement with the rest of world. The CCP understands that now and has adapted. Third, the CCP knows that a positive and benign global narrative is needed to advance while simultaneously concealing its grand strategic objective of domination. The CCP has grasped, first, that it must motivate and enthuse multiple audiences to dominate them effectively; and, second, that it must inspire as many international audiences as possible, not just the Chinese people or fellow authoritarian leaders. Global ambition requires a global message, and the CCP recognizes that COVID-19 has temporarily damaged it. Fourth, this transformation in strategic narrative must be understood in the context of confrontation with the United States. Beijing consciously emulates the historical ability of the United States to project an inspiring global message. In this milieu, CDM is China’s effort, first, to establish ideological superiority in this competition over the democratic message advanced by the United States; second, to unite allied and potential allied states behind the message; third, to use CDM to undermine the United States in Asia, Europe, and the Global South; fourth, to advance a narrative that is acceptable to Western policy-makers to minimize balancing and the perception of China as a threat; and fifth, for all audiences, the narrative advances the hopeful and positive message that the world has one destiny, around which all may unite, and, indeed, should now do so. Fifth, the CDM narrative is still Han-centric enough to inspire the Han ethnic majority in China. Although the narrative is directed at international audiences it is also inevitably directly and obliquely targeted at domestic elites and the general population. The implicit content of the narrative is that it is the Han, and the CCP, who are vii Occasional Paper directing the rest of the world’s population toward its “common destiny.” This study argues that the United States needs to escalate political warfare to counter China’s strategic narrative, as part of the all azimuths change in U.S. and allied decision-makers conception of China from economic partner to strategic enemy. CDM is key empirical evidence that China is confronting the United States in an ideological conflict with all global audiences. Thus far, the ideological confrontation has been largely one sided. China is laboring vigorously to undermine the position of the United States and the West more broadly, while the response from the United States is still too weak. Thus, the United States must once again wage political warfare and ideological struggle. Its ideological prowess must not be rhetorical. It must be seen. It must be shown. It must be persuasive. There are five measures U.S. national security decision makers should execute in response to the PRC’s political warfare attack. First, U.S. decision makers must recognize the ideological component of the threat from the PRC. U.S. and Western security are at stake in the ideological war with China. Ideology matters as much now as it did in the struggle with the Soviet Union or in World War II. Second, the United States must draw the contrast between its ideology and China’s. U.S. decisionmakers as well as other U.S. Government entities must understand and delineate the sharp contrast between the political principles and values of the United States versus those of China on a consistent basis to domestic and international audiences. Third, the United States already has the most effective strategic narrative, the advancement of freedom and individual liberty. But it must employ it and launch it into the fight. The United States cannot match China’s ability to invest but should more than match its ability to inspire. The PRC’s New Strategic Narrative as Political Warfare viii Fourth, based on the clear ideological differences and concomitant competing visions of the futures, U.S. decisionmakers should attack the CDM strategic narrative not directly, but by positing the future envisioned by the United States. The world China will create is one where Western freedoms and liberties are eroded—and finally extinguished—in favor of the authoritarian political principles advanced by the repressive CCP. Emphasize that China is not a status quo great power. Rather, it is truly a revolutionary one that seeks fundamental and permanent changes to the contemporary order in international politics and thus is an existential threat to the U.S. position. Fifth, prioritize ideological warfare by supporting an office dedicated precisely to political warfare, and require all U.S. Combatant Commands to confront the CDM narrative in conjunction with other governmental and allied partners. Introduction and Significance At the outset of this study, it is necessary to present four introductory points, which serve as the assumptions and bounding framework of the study. First, China’s grand strategic vision is one of primacy. The realization of this vision is intended to and will require that China supplant the United States as the dominant power in international politics. China’s quest for greater resources, and expanding diplomatic, economic, and military capabilities are orientated toward achieving this grand strategic objective at the expense of the United States and the West in general. Accordingly, the United States must maintain its position as the world’s dominant state. This position ensures, first, security for the United States and its global interests; second, the security of its

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