i ELECTORAL POLITICS IN NWFP. 1988-1999 Submitted by MUHAMMAD SHAKEEL AHMAD Supervised by Dr. NAUREEN TALHA NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF PAKISTAN STUDIES QUAID-I-AZAM UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD 2010 ii ELECTORAL POLITICS IN NWFP. 1988-1999 A dissertation submitted to the National Institute of Pakistan Studies, Quaid-I-Azam University Islamabad (Pakistan) in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Pakistan Studies. By MUHAMMAD SHAKEEL AHMAD NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF PAKISTAN STUDIES QUAID-I-AZAM UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD 2010 iii DECLARATION I hereby declare that this thesis is the result of my individual research, and that it has not been submitted concurrently to any other university for any other degree. Muhammad Shakeel Ahmad iv CONTENTS S. NO TITLES PAGE NO 1 LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES AND DIAGRAMS vii 2 ACRONYMS xi 3 GLOSSARY xii 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT xiv 5 ABSTRACT xv 6 INTRODUCTION xvi Aims and Objective of the Study xvii Research Question-Hypothesis and Models xviii Significance of the Problem xix Review of Literature xxi Research Methodology xxxiii Summary of Chapters PART-1 THEORIES AND CONTEXTS 7 CHAPTER-1: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF 1-32 ELECTORAL POLITICS 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Electoral Politics and the political organization 7 1.3 Electoral politics and political participation 14 1.4 Militaricracy to Electocracy 19 1.5 Impact of elections on legislature 23 1.6 Basic practices in Electoral Politics 26 1.7 Reforms in Electoral Politics 28 1.8 Conclusions 30 8 CHAPTER-2: NWFP’S ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY 33-61 2.1 Introduction 33 2.2 Central NWFP 37 2.2.1 Geography and Population 38 2.2.2 Agriculture and canal system 38 2.2.3 Economy 41 2.2.4 Politics 43 2.3.1 Northern NWFP 46 2.3.2 Geography and Population 46 2.3.3 Economy 48 2.3.4 Politics 49 2.4.1 Southern NWFP 51 2.4.2 Geography and Population 52 2.4.3 Economy 52 2.4.4 Politics 53 2.5.1 North-Eastern NWFP 55 2.5.2 Economy 56 2.5.3 Politics 57 2.6 Conclusions 60 9 CHAPTER-3: ELECTORAL HISTORY OF NWFP 62-89 3. Introduction 62 3.1 British Period (1932-47) 62 3.2 Legislative Council Elections 64 3.3 Elections 1937 65 3.4 Elections 1946 71 3.5 Referendum in NWFP 1947 76 3.6 Post Partition (1947-1955) 81 3.7 Elections during Ayub Era (1959-65) 85 3.8 Conclusions 86 v PART-II CASE STUDIES AND ANALYSIS 10 CHAPTER-4: VOTING TRENDS IN NWFP 90-189 4.1 Introduction 90 4.2 Characteristics of Sample data 97 4.3 Interest in Politics and Information 104 4.4 Awareness and Access to Electoral Process 113 4.5 Trust in Institution 127 4.6 Perception of Electoral fraud, Coercion and Violence. 142 4.7 Perception of Democracy 160 4.8 Electoral and Democratic Participation. 165 4.9 Conclusions 178 11 CHAPTER-5: ELECTORAL POLITICS: A CASE STUDY OF 190-215 PESHAWAR. 5. Introduction 190 5.1 Electoral Results 191 5.2 Urban Rural Periphery Polling Stations 192 5.3 Industrial Polling Stations. 192 5.4 Lower Middle Class Polling Stations 193 5.5 Middle Class Polling Stations. 193 5.6 Upper Class Polling Stations 194 5.7 Old City Polling Stations 194 5.8 Peshawar Cantonment Polling Stations 194 5.9 Constituencies Results 194 5.10 National Assembly NA-1 195 5.11 National Assembly NA-2 199 5.12 National Assembly NA-3 201 5.13 Case Study NA-1 202 5.14 The Constituency 203 5.15 The Candidate 204 5.16 NA-1 results 206 5.17 Comparison of 1988-1997 Election Results. 209 5.18 Gender Differences in Voting behavior 209 5.19 Party/ Leader Identification in Peshawar 211 5.20 Conclusions 213 12 CHAPTER-6: PARTY POLITICS IN NWFP 1988-1999. 216-274 6. Introduction 216 6.1 Party politics at Macro Level in NWFP. 21 6.1.1 Political Legacy of PPP 218 6.1.2 PPP Organisational weaknesses 219 6.1.3 Legacy of General Zia-ul-Haq 223 6.1.4 Patronage of Nawaz Sharif 225 6.1.5 New Trade and Business activities in NWFP in 1980s 227 6.1.6 The Rise of Traders 228 6.1.7 Decline of Organised labour 230 6.1.8 Ethnic/Regional Legacy of ANP in NWFP 232 6.1.9 Politics of Pashto in NWFP 233 6.1.10 Religious Legacy in NWFP: Establishment of 235 Conservatism in NWFP. 6.2.1 Party Politics at Micro level in NWFP. 243 6.2.1.1 Central NWFP 243 6.2.2 North-Eastern NWFP (Hazara) 249 6.2.3 Northern NWFP 254 6.2.4 Southern NWFP 261 vi 6.3 Conclusions 268 13 CHAPTER-7: THE URBAN-RURAL DIVISION OF 275-297 ELECTORAL POLITICS. 7.1. Introduction 275 7.2 Urban-Rural division in Historical Perspective 275 7.3 The Jagirdars vs the Bureaucrats 1947-1958 277 7.4 The Ayub Era 1958-1969 278 7.5 Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto 1970-1977 280 7.6 General Zia-ul-Haq 1977-1988 284 7.7 The Urban Rural Divide in Electoral Politics 284 7.8 Analysis of Constituency Results in Urban Rural NWFP 293 7.9 Conclusions 295 14 CHAPTER-8: SOCIOLGICAL DETERMINANTS OF 298-332 ELECTORAL POLITICS IN NWFP. 8. Introduction 8.1 Gender 298 8.2 Women in electoral politics of NWFP 298 8.3 Gender differences in voting behaviour 300 8.4 Rigging in Female Polling Stations 303 8.5 Conservatism of Female voters 304 8.6 PML (N) Election Campaigns 305 8.7 Other gender related findings 305 8.7.1 Impacts of Candidate’s Gender on Voting 305 8.7.2 Gender differences in support for religious parties 306 8.7.3 Female voter education 307 8.8 Class 308 8.9 Postal Ballots 310 8.10 Islamabad Results 311 8.11 Age 313 8.12 Literacy and levels of education 315 8.13 Minorities in electoral politics of NWFP 316 8.14: Religious Determinants. 318 8.15 Sectarianism 319 8.16 Maulvis, Pirs, and Sajjada Nashins 320 8.17 Factionalism 321 8.18 Biradari 323 8.19 Conclusions 328 15 CHAPTER-9: POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF 333-349 ELECTORAL POLITICS IN NWFP. 9. Introduction 333 9.1 Party leader identification in NWFP. 333 9.2 Voting for delivery 336 9.4 Democratization of patronage politics 339 9.5 Patronage and legislature 341 9.6 Commercialization of politics 342 9.7 Political instability 343 9.8 National/provincial issue orientation 344 9.9 Conclusions 347 16 CONCLUSIONS 350-354 17 BIBLIOGRAPHY 355-365 18 APPENDIX-1: QUESTIONARE 366-372 vii LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES AND DIAGRAMS CHAPTER-1 Figure 1: How an Election Result is Determined. Diagram-I: Paradigm for the study of electoral Behaviour. Diagram-II: Michigan Model of Voter Behaviour. CHAPTER-2 Map 2.1: Map of NWFP. Table 2.1: Election Results by NWFP Regions. Table 2.3: Voting Detail Table 2.5: Socio economic comparison of four NWFP regions. Table 2.6: Participation rate of economically active population (Central NWFP) Table 2.7: Results Showing Close electoral competition less than 5000 votes and greater than1001 and more close contest i.e less than 1000 votes (Both NA and PA): Table 2.8: Voting Detail Table 2.11: Central NWFP Election Result Table 2.12: Participation rate of economically active population (10 years and above) by sex, rural/urban and districts, 1988 (Northern NWFP). Table 2.14: Northern NWFP Election Result Table 2.16: Voting detail Table 2.17: Participation rate of economically active population (10 years and above) by sex, rural/urban and districts, 1998 (Southern NWFP) Table 2.18: Southern NWFP Election Result Table 2.21: Voting Detail Table 2.22. Participation rate of economically active population (10 years and above) by sex, rural/urban and districts, 1988 (North-Eastern NWFP). Table 2.24: North-eastern NWFP Election Result Table 2.26: Voting Detail CHAPTER-3 Table 3.1: Results of the 1937 Elections in the NWFP. Table 3.2: 1937 elections in the NWFP. Distribution of the Muslim Rural seats by districts: Table 3.3: Results of the elections to the NWFP Legislative Assembly, 1946 Table 3.4: Distribution of Muslim Rural seats by districts in the Legislative Assembly elections in the NWFP 1946: Table 3.5 Results of 1946 Elections Table 3.6: The detailed picture of referendum is shown in following table: Table 3.7: Table showing the turn out in seven Constituencies of Hazara. Comparison between 1946 elections and the 1947 Referendum. Table 3.8: Table showing the turn out in the Muslim Rural constituencies of Peshawar and Mardan Districts. Comparison between 1946 elections and the 1947 Referendum Table 3.9: Table showing the detail of Elections in NWFP, 1947-1997 CHAPTER-4 Table 4.1.1 a: Distribution of Urban and Rural Population. Table 4.1.1 b: Urban and Rural localities: Table 4.2.1a: Age and Marriage Status, by Gender (Questions Q2, 3, 1) Table 4.2.1b: Employment Status, by Gender (Q10) Table 4.2.1 c: Occupation Classification, by Gender and Urban/Rural Classification Table 4.2.1d: Average Household Size and Housing Tenure, by regions of NWFP: Owner of Respondents' Home (Q7) Table 4.2.1e: Percent Population per Household Income Category, in Rural and Urban Areas: Table: 4.2.2a Educational Attainment, by Gender and Urban-Rural Classification Table 4.2.2 b: Language Distribution. Table 4.2.2 c: Distribution of Mother Tongue Speakers Across four regions of NWFP: Percent Respondents Speaking Mother Tongue in regions.