Larsen & Toubro
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VISIT NOTE LARSEN & TOUBRO Geared up for a long haul India Equity Research| Engineering and Capital Goods We met up with L&T management recently and came back positive on its EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS medium to long term business potential and new business initiatives. Absolute Rating BUY Rating Relative to Sector Outperformer RoCE improvement in focus; aims to leverage new capacities Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium Sector Relative to Market Equalweight L&T targets to achieve an improvement in RoCEs over next 2‐3 years by exiting non‐ core businesses which are not scalable, value unlocking in select developmental projects and optimizing the current manufacturing base in ship‐building, defense, MARKET DATA (R: LART.BO, B: LT IN) heavy forgings and power equipment. L&T expects to utilize its upcoming shipyard for CMP : INR 1,409 both defense and commercial vessels, and is eyeing improved ordering from FY14E. It Target Price : INR 1,587 currently has INR15bn worth of order book in this segment. In switchgears, L&T has 52‐week range (INR) : 1,673 / 969 incurred capex for new switchgears plant (at Baroda) and new control panel plants (LV Share in issue (mn) : 613.8 & MV) at Ahmednagar and Coimbatore which will help reduce overall costs and arrest M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 865/ 15,671 Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 2,494.2 margin decline in the EBG business. Growth guidance reiterated; no major capex incrementally SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) L&T has guided for a 15%‐20% growth in OI and 15% growth in revenue for FY13E Current Q4FY12 Q3FY12 (which the management hopes to maintain as of now). Outlook for hydrocarbons, Promoters % ‐ ‐ ‐ power T&D, railways, etc remains healthy, adding to near term order book growth MF's, FI's & BK’s 38.4 38.4 36.6 visibility. The company has incurred INR70bn+ in the last 2‐3 years for building FII's 14.1 14.1 15.6 manufacturing capabilities in power equipment, forgings, ship‐building etc hence does others 47.5 47.5 47.8 : not expect any fresh capacity addition incrementally other than maintenance capex. * Promoters pledged shares NIL (% of share in issue) Outlook and valuations: Positioned for growth; maintain ‘BUY’ PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Our recent visit to the company boosted our confidence on the order intake and earnings EW growth outlook in the near to medium term. Order inflows in power EPC, ship‐building, Stock Nifty Construction Index defense and heavy forgings would help L&T reposition itself over the long run. Any major 1 month (3.5) 0.1 5.5 traction on the policy front clearly poses a major upside risk to our growth assumptions for FY13E‐14E. We reiterate our positive stance on L&T for its long term positioning in the 3 months 7.3 5.8 22.0 industrial and infrastructure space, scalability of current businesses and the sustained 12 months (18.6) 4.2 (4.9) focus on profitability. We maintain our BUY/SO rating with a revised TP of INR 1587 (earlier ‐1528). We maintain our parent valuation at INR1278/share. Financials ‐ SA Year to March FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Revenues (INR mn) 439,049 529,158 607,403 699,380 Amit Mahawar Rev. growth (%) 18.6 20.5 14.8 15.1 +91 22 4040 7451 [email protected] EBITDA (INR mn) 55984 60298.7 69,098 79,766 Net profit (INR mn) 38858 44015 44515 50171 Rahul Gajare +91 22 4063 5561 Share outstanding (mn) 615 617 617 617 [email protected] EPS (INR) 63.2 71.3 72.1 81.3 EPS growth (%) (8.6) 12.9 1.1 12.7 Swarnim Maheshwari +91 22 4040 7418 Diluted P/E (x) 22.3 19.8 19.5 17.3 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 13.0 11.3 9.7 September 12, 2012 ROE (%) 19.4 18.7 16.5 16.4 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods New mfg capacities: Weak in near term, but scalable over long term • Eyeing EPC based power projects for Hazira facility: L&T has limited revenue visibility for manufacturing plants at Hariza for revenues beyond FY14E given the zero BTG order inflows in FY12. It recently commissioned the critical piping and Electro Static Precipitators (ESP) plant and could now deliver more than 75% of the scope in a power plant on a turnkey basis. On the opportunity side, L&T expects projects worth 8GW on EPC basis and 6GW on BTG basis to come up for bidding over the next few quarters. • Ship‐building, defense to gain size going ahead: L&T expects to see an improved traction in ship‐building from FY14E given that it has entered into a JV with Mazgaon Dock for submarines and expects major ordering potential for private sector in defense vessels and submarine from Ministry of defense (Indian Navy). The company currently has INR15bn worth of orders in hand for Interceptor boats for the Indian Navy and few more for commercial vessels. Other key highlights • With NHAI expected to award 9500 km of road projects during FY13E (including 3000‐ 4000 km of EPC projects), L&T targets to opt for higher share of EPC projects. • L&T expects an increased traction in Western DFCC towards 2HFY13E, and expect at least two packages worth INR 80 bn to be awarded in FY13E. L&T‐Sojitz consortium is one of the two pre‐qualified entities for Western DFCC. • Apart from routine railway capex, L&T expects 250‐300 km of additional private railway siding business to accrue during the current year. • Current order book of INR 15 bn in ship‐building would be executed from Katupalli & Hazira equally. L&T expects to bag Submarine orders from Mazgaon dock from FY14E onwards. • L&T expects Hydrocarbons to see a strong growth in fresh order intake during FY13E and expects a 30 %+ growth in Hydrocarbons project awards this year. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Larsen & Toubro Segment wise Order intake assumption for L&T Table 1: Order intake assumption for FY13E and FY14E (All figures in INR bn) FY12 FY13E FY14E Comments Process 786571Spending in metals& mining space is expected to remain weak in the near term. Power 148 170 188 T&D‐ Middle East 50 56 62 L&T increased focus in key marketrs like Qatar/Oman/Abu Dhabi has helped it gain significant traction in Middle East T&D inflows. We expect the growth momentum to continue. T&D‐ India 384044Strong ordering momentum led by PGCIL has helped the company in gaining significant momentum which is likely to continue. BoP/Gas/EPC etc 603842We are assuming no gas EPC orders in FY13. BTG ‐ 36 40 We have assumed atleast one EPC contract through the developmental project in FY13E & FY14E Hydrocarbons 78 93 102 India 15 20 22 Expect growth momentum to continue in domestic Oil& Gas Industry . We have not build any orders from fertlizer sector pending policy clarity. Exports 63 73 80 We expect order inflow traction to improve in the coming quarters given historical pattern of middle east ordering in 2H of fiscal year. Infrastructure 338 394 425 Factories & Buildings 164 172 181 We expect 5% growth in F&B segment. Railways (DFC+Metro)146075We expect Western DFCC project award before Q4FY13 where L&T consortium is one of the two qulified entities. Also, private Railway sidings will be an additional opportunity (250‐300kMs). Roads 657080We expect NHAI to award 3000‐4000Kms EPC projects during FY13E. Airport/Urban Infra1089We don’t expect any significant ordering in this space in the near term. Water 252935L&T has shown good traction in municipality orders in the last 12 months and we expect this segment to do well in coming years, given strong project award pipeline. Developmental Projects 60 55 45 We expect L&T to go slow in new development projects Others 63 66 79 TOTAL 706 788 864 Source: Industry, Edelweiss research 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods Table 2: SOTP valuation Valuation L&T's Value Per share Multiple Remark methodology stake (%) (INR mn) (INR) L&T Parent PE 16.8 100 783,403 1,278 Assigning 15% discount to avg 1 Yr Fwd FY05‐12 PE on FY14E EPS (Ex dividend from subsidairies) L&T MHI (BTG JVs) PE ‐ 51 ‐ We assign a nil value to this subsidiary L&T Infotech PER 12.0 100 62,093 101 In line with other mid cap IT companies L&T Finance Holdings 82 51,739 85 20% discount to market cap L&T IDPL P/BV 1.00 100 63,119 103 1.0x book Others PE 8.4 50 9,941 19 50% discount to L&T standalone valuations Total 970,296 1,587 Source: Edelweiss research Chart 1: L&T 1 year fwd PE band 60.0 48.0 Average at 19.2x 36.0 (FY05-12) (x) 24.0 12.0 0.0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 Source: Edelweiss research 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited Larsen & Toubro Company Description L&T, headquartered in Mumbai, is a technology‐driven engineering and construction company, and one of the largest companies in India’s private sector. It has additional interests in manufacturing, services, and information technology.