MARKET LENS 9840 Positional Pick GAIL Resistance 9960 Intraday Pick HEXAWARE 10000 Intraday Pick HAVELLS
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Institutional Equity Research NIFTY 9916 IN FOCUS July 18, 2017 Support 9880 Stock in Focus SBI MARKET LENS 9840 Positional Pick GAIL Resistance 9960 Intraday Pick HEXAWARE 10000 Intraday Pick HAVELLS EQUITY INDICES Indices Absolute Change Percentage Change Domestic Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD BSE Sensex 32,074.8 54.0 0.2% 3.3% 20.5% CNX Nifty 9,916.0 29.6 0.3% 3.4% 21.1% S&P CNX 500 8,659.5 18.8 0.2% 2.9% 24.0% SENSEX 50 10,282.3 30.8 0.3% 3.5% 22.0% International Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD DJIA 21,629.7 (8.0) 0.0% 1.1% 9.4% NASDAQ 6,314.4 2.0 0.0% 2.6% 17.3% NIKKEI 19,995.0 (123.9) -0.6% 0.3% 4.6% HANGSENG 26,523.9 53.4 0.2% 3.5% 20.6% MSCI Emerging Mkts 1,051.5 4.5 0.4% 4.8% 22.0% ADRs / GDRs Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD Dr. Reddy’s Lab (ADR) 41.7 (0.2) -0.5% 0.0% -8.0% STOCK IN FOCUS Tata Motors (ADR) 35.2 (0.2) -0.5% 0.9% 2.3% Infosys (ADR) 15.6 (0.0) -0.2% 6.6% 5.5% f SBI closed 0.6% higher, outperforming benchmark NIFTY by 0.3% ICICI Bank (ADR) 9.3 0.0 0.1% 5.0% 37.0% f Post mega merger, SBI stands to gain market share in fast- HDFC Bank (ADR) 90.6 (0.2) -0.3% 2.2% 49.3% growing Retail and SME segments. Further, the Bank has been Axis Bank (GDR) 39.7 0.1 0.3% 1.0% 21.0% able to deliver relatively better operating performance compared Reliance Ind (GDR) 47.9 0.5 1.1% 11.4% 51.8% to its peers despite elevated stress in balance sheet. COMMODITY MARKET f Moreover, the Bank has been able to clean-up its loan book effectively, which reasonably assures us that it will continue to Key Commodities Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD surprise positively on operating and asset quality fronts from Brent Crude ($/bl) 48.5 0.1 0.2% 2.5% -14.6% FY18E onwards. Silver ($/Oz) 16.2 0.1 0.4% -3.0% 1.7% f Realignment of PCR and assets classification of the associate Gold ($/Oz) 1,237.7 3.6 0.3% -0.5% 7.9% banks at standalone level further boosts our confidence in SBI’s Copper LME ($/MT) 5,971.0 65.8 1.1% 5.9% 8.1% performance, going forward. Aluminium LME ($/MT) 1,896.3 (12.0) -0.6% 2.2% 11.3% f Recent capital raising of Rs15,000 crore will further help the bank Baltic Dry 900.0 12.0 1.4% 5.8% -6.3% to support its growth plan over next 3 years. CURRENCY RATES f We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with an Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD SOTP-based Target Price of Rs355 (valuing parent at 1.6x FY19 USD/INR 64.4 64.4 -0.1% -0.1% -5.3% Adj. BV implying standalone value at of Rs316, while valuing EUR/INR 73.8 73.6 0.3% 2.2% 2.9% subsidiaries at Rs39 after 15% holding company discount). RATES Positional Pick Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD GAIL (LTP: 386) BUY T-Bill - 91 D 6.2 6.2 0.2% -1.5% -0.5% For today’s trade, long position can be initiated at 380 for target of Rs 10 Year G-sec Yield 6.5 6.5 -0.1% -0.5% -0.9% 413 with a strict stop loss of Rs 365 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY (RS. CR) Intraday Picks Category BUY SELL NET Prev FII 4,554.1 4,225.5 328.6 673.6 HEXAWARE (LTP: 243) BUY DII 2,374.8 2,821.9 (447.1) (136.3) For today’s trade, long position can be initiated at Rs 241 for target of Rs 250 with a strict stop loss of Rs 238. Traders are advised to avoid EXCHANGE TURNOVER early morning whipsaw. Exchange Rs Crore HAVELLS (LTP: 466) SELL BSE Equity 3,549.8 For today’s trade, short position can be initiated at Rs 470 for target of BSE Derivatives 19.68 Rs 458 with a strict stop loss of Rs 475. Traders are advised to avoid NSE Equity 24,497.5 early morning whipsaw. NSE Derivatives 3,73,908. 1 Institutional Equity Research NIFTY 9916 IN FOCUS July 18, 2017 Support 9880 Stock in Focus SBI MARKET LENS 9840 Positional Pick GAIL Resistance 9960 Intraday Pick HEXAWARE 10000 Intraday Pick HAVELLS Technical Research MARKET SYNOPSIS f Yesterday, NSE-NIFTY remained sideways post firm opening and later utilized that consolidation to record new life-time- high of 9,928 level during the day. Finally, NIFTY closed the session at 9,916 mark with the gain of 30 points. f NSE Cash segment reported turnover of Rs24,498 crore as compared to Rs27,523 crore earlier. f Overall market breadth remained flat to negative, where 822 stocks advanced against 871 declined stocks. f Positive trend was observed across all the sectoral indices during the day baring FMCG index (declined by 1.7%). Metal, IT and Realty indices emerged as top gainers with the increase of 1%, 1.1% and 1.5% respectively. However, rest of the sectoral indices advanced in between 0.3% to 0.7%. NSE-NIFTY OUTLOOK f NSE-NIFTY began brand new week on a stable note, where index managed to hold prior gains and closed above 9,900 mark. As mentioned earlier, our view will remain positive on NIFTY and we believe that index will keep recording new highs. However, one should utilize such sideways movement or any decline from here to create fresh long position in the market. On the lower side, its short-term and medium-term moving averages (i.e. 20-day and 50-day EMAs) will continue to work as key reversal point for the index, which are now placed at 9,710 and at 9,570 levels respectively. On the higher side, NIFTY will face major hurdle around the psychological mark-10,000. f As for the day, support is placed at around 9,880 and then at 9,840 levels, while resistance is observed at 9,960 and then around at 10,000 levels. 2 Institutional Equity Research NIFTY 9916 IN FOCUS July 18, 2017 Support 9880 Stock in Focus SBI MARKET LENS 9840 Positional Pick GAIL Resistance 9960 Intraday Pick HEXAWARE 10000 Intraday Pick HAVELLS Technical Research Positional Pick: GAIL CMP: 386 | RECO: BUY | AT: 380 | TARGET: 413 | STOP LOSS: 365 f The stock has bounced back from its 200 day average with positive momentum in the past week, there was mild profit booking in today’s trade which should be used to buy on declines. f The key technical indicator RSI has also reversed turning upwards confirming the uptrend in the coming days. f The stock is has closed above its band of its averages and with the sector in focus it is likely to outperform in the sector f Thus, for today’s trade, long position can be initiated at Rs.380 for target of Rs 413 with a stop loss of Rs 365. 3 Institutional Equity Research NIFTY 9916 IN FOCUS July 18, 2017 Support 9880 Stock in Focus SBI MARKET LENS 9840 Positional Pick GAIL Resistance 9960 Intraday Pick HEXAWARE 10000 Intraday Pick HAVELLS Derivatives Snapshot f Nifty opened higher on back of global cues, but remained flat consolidating in a tight range of 33 points throughout the day. Nifty closed up by 30 points at 9,916 levels. Among the nifty stocks 40 stocks advanced and 11 declined during the day. f Sectorally it was a mixed bag with Realty, IT and Metals to gain by 1.4%, 1.1% and 0.9% while FMCG declined by 1.7% respectively. f Broader market indices remained flat to positive with NIFTY 100,200 and 500 to close up by 0.3% average while midcap indices and small cap indices gained by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. f Nifty July futures ends with 17 points premium at 9,933 mark, while on other hand, Bank Nifty July futures ended with the premium of 12 points at 24,027 mark. f We continue to believe markets should consolidate and would face resistance near the round mark of 10,000 levels. Nifty 9800 PE has the highest OI of 64 lakhs shares average while on the upside 9,900 and 10,000 series has the highest call OI of 44 lakhs shares. Sectoral Activity: Amongst sectoral index, Energy and Cement remained in focus with positive momentum. Stock Activity: OIL and Ultrarech observed build up in short position. TOP 5 PRICE GAINERS Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %OI Chg Support Pivot Resistance SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINAN 126.20 10.75% 556.46% 45.93% 118 124 132 JUBILANT FOODWORKS LTD 1272.70 9.28% 338.86% 44.74% 1194 1240 1319 JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES LTD 22.30 7.47% 141.90% -3.06% 21 22 23 INDIABULLS REAL EST. LTD 205.35 4.21% 131.86% -2.20% 197 202 211 UNITED SPIRITS LIMITED 2755.25 3.18% 154.09% 1.17% 2694 2732 2793 TOP 5 PRICE LOSERS Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %OI Chg Support Pivot Resistance FORTIS HEALTHCARE LTD 148.40 -8.93% 297.42% 21.05% 139 151 161 KARNATAKA BANK LIMITED 158.65 -4.28% 104.69% 12.86% 157 160 162 ITC LTD 325.15 -3.56% 263.73% 5.13% 319 327 333 NHPC LTD 31.20 -2.65% 82.34% 6.69% 31 31 32 GODFREY PHILLIPS INDIA LT 1227.05 -2.62% 45.63% -1.06% 1209 1235 1252 TOP 5 OI GAINERS Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %OI Chg Support Pivot Resistance ACC LIMITED 1747.40 -0.44% 29.65% 50.05% 1723 1750 1775 SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINAN 126.20 10.75% 556.46% 45.93% 118 124 132 JUBILANT FOODWORKS LTD 1272.70 9.28% 338.86% 44.74% 1194 1240 1319 JUSTDIAL LTD.