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Havells India (HAVL IN) Havells Indi A India Industrials 3 November 2016 Havells India (HAVL IN) Havells Indi a Target price: INR450.00 Share price (3 Nov): INR394.35 | Up/downside: +14.1% Initiation: turning into a compounding story Saurabh Mehta (91) 22 6622 1009 We like the Havells’ growth story despite rich-looking valuations [email protected] Sustainable competitive edge: strong brand, extensive distribution Ajay Devnani (91) 22 6622 1015 Initiating with an Outperform (2) rating and TP of INR450 [email protected] Investment case: India's leading electrical consumer goods player. Share price performance We initiate on Havells with an Outperform (2) rating. We believe its strong (INR) (%) brand and well-entrenched distribution network would ensure growth ahead 455 175 of the market. While industry growth has slowed over the past 3 years, the 391 154 company has maintained its business momentum with steady market-share 328 133 264 111 expansion and a 4pp rise in gross margin. The outlook is also favourable – 200 90 we forecast a 16% revenue CAGR and 1pp EBITDA margin gain to drive a Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 21.9% net-profit CAGR over FY16-19E. Good asset turns and negative Havells (LHS) Relative to SENSEX Index (RHS) working capital should also underpin healthy returns. 12-month range 241.70-451.05 Sustainable competitive advantage. Havells has increased its presence Market cap (USDbn) 3.68 in India’s consumer electrical market by successfully entering new markets 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 9.23 Shares outstanding (m) 625 and gaining significant market share, without competing with peers on Major shareholder Promoter Group (61.6%) pricing by selling everyday electrical goods (switches, circuit breakers, wires) as branded high quality products. In the process it has redefined the Financial summary (INR) way electrical business is done in India. Havells’ strategy is to build a wide Year to 31 Mar 17E 18E 19E distribution network, launch new products with an emphasis on quality (in- Revenue (m) 62,398 75,596 85,838 house manufacturing), and offer a superior customer service. Operating profit (m) 7,814 9,914 11,316 Net profit (m) 6,379 8,030 9,287 Core EPS (fully-diluted) 10.214 12.857 14.870 We foresee strong sustainable earnings growth for Havells over the long EPS change (%) 24.4 25.9 15.7 term (5-10 years) on the back of its sustainable competitive advantages, Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (1.5) 4.3 5.2 PER (x) 38.6 30.7 26.5 such as its strong brand, distribution network and market share, along with Dividend yield (%) 1.0 1.3 1.5 long-term demand drivers such as the improvement in power availability in DPS 4.100 5.100 6.000 India, the shift in market share from unorganised to organised sector, and PBR (x) 8.3 7.3 6.4 Havells repeating its success in new product launches and expanding its EV/EBITDA (x) 25.9 20.3 17.5 ROE (%) 22.7 25.2 25.5 geographical exposure. Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts Catalysts: With India’s economy seemingly on the cusp of recovery, we see Havells’ revenue rising on tailwinds from the positive impact of the 7th Pay Commission (hike in central government employee salaries), and the introduction of a GST (likely from FY18E). Valuation: We initiate coverage with a 12-month TP of INR450 based on a 35x FY18E PER, a 40% premium to the stock’s past 5-year-average. We believe such a premium is justified given the company now has competitive sustainable advantages in terms of brand equity, extensive distribution network and market share, which are difficult to displace, and instil confidence in its long-term earnings growth. We also like its strong balance sheet, better return profile (after the Sylvania divestment), and average ROCE and ROIC for FY16-19E of 29% and 46%, respectively. Risks: The key risks to our call are any failure to scale up new consumer launches and any impact of increased competition on profitability. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page Error! Bookmark not defined. Havells India (HAVL IN): 3 November 2016 Table of contents Turning into a compounding story ......................................................................... 6 Investment summary .........................................................................................................6 Key charts ..........................................................................................................................9 Strong distribution channels … act as a key entry barrier ................................................ 10 Focus on branding and advertising … leading to high brand recall .................................. 11 Consistency in launching new products … drives earnings growth .................................. 13 Manufacturing focus ........................................................................................................ 14 Sylvania exit … brings the focus back to the domestic business ...................................... 14 Segmental analysis .................................................................................................15 Switchgears ..................................................................................................................... 15 Cables and wires ............................................................................................................. 17 Lighting and fixtures ......................................................................................................... 18 Electrical consumable durables ....................................................................................... 20 Financial analysis ....................................................................................................23 Our assumptions .............................................................................................................. 24 Valuation and recommendation ....................................................................................... 25 Risks ................................................................................................................................ 26 Appendix 1 ...............................................................................................................27 Company background ...................................................................................................... 27 Appendix 2 ...............................................................................................................28 EESL ............................................................................................................................... 28 2 Havells India (HAVL IN): 3 November 2016 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook Havells: revenue growth and PAT growth We forecast Havells’ revenue to rise at a CAGR of 16% (%) over FY16-19E, backed by a recovery in growth for the 65 domestic business, a widening of its distribution channels, 55 incremental revenue from 2 new facilities, as well as tail 45 winds from the 7th Pay Commission and the introduction of 35 a GST (likely from FY18E), and a 1pp increase in its 25 EBITDA margin on the back of the company ceasing 15 brand royalty payments to parent company QRG 5 (5) Enterprises from FY17, and higher revenue growth leading FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY18E FY19E to an EPS CAGR of 21.9% for FY16-19E. FY17E Revenue growth YoY % (LHS) Adjusted PAT growth % YoY (RHS) Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Valuation Havells: 1-year-forward PER (x) We initiate coverage with an Outperform (2) rating and PER 42 12-month target price of INR450, based on a 35x PER for 37.3x Avg+2S.D. FY18E, a 40% premium to the stock’s past 5-year- 35 average, which we believe is justified by the company’s 28.7x Avg+1S.D. 28 strong competitive advantage in terms of its brand recognition and extensive distribution network. In our view, 21 20x Avg such attributes instil confidence in its long-term 14 11.4x Avg-1S.D. sustainable growth outlook, as well as strong balance 7 sheet and improved return profile (after the Sylvania 2.7x Avg-2S.D. divestment). 0 Oct-16 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-06 Source: Bloomberg, Company, Daiwa forecasts Earnings revisions Havells: Bloomberg-consensus EPS-forecast revisions The Bloomberg-consensus earnings forecasts for FY17-18 (INR) have been revised down by 6-7.5% over the past 12 14 13.2 months, due to weaker-then-expected revenue growth. 13 12.6 12.4 12.1 However, from here on we see upside risk to the 11.5 12 consensus earnings forecasts on the back of potentially 10.9 higher-than-expected revenue growth, especially for FY18, 11 10.7 10.3 10.4 10.6 on the back of a recovery in domestic business demand 10 and incremental sales from the company’s 2 new facilities. 9 Jul-16 Apr-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Nov-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Sep-16 May-16 FY17E FY18E Source: Bloomberg 3 Havells India (HAVL IN): 3 November 2016 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Mar 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Cables - Revenue (% Ch YoY) 29.3 6.2 13.8 13.7 0.8 7.0 20.0 8.0 Switchgears - Revenue (% Ch YoY) 22.0 20.3 13.1 4.9 0.6 15.0 20.0 10.0 Electrical Consumables - Revenue (% 21.9 38.0 8.1 20.5 11.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 Ch YoY) Lighting and Fixtures - Revenue (% Ch 24.7 20.0 8.3 2.8 8.2 15.0 20.0 15.0 YoY) EBITDA margins (%) 12.6 12.7 13.6 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 14.8 Profit and loss (INRm) Year to 31 Mar 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Cables 15,930 16,925 19,264 21,904
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