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China's New Place in a World in Crisis

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China's New Place in a World in Crisis CHINA’S NEW PLACE IN A WORLD IN CRISIS ECONOMIC, GEOPOLITICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS Other titles in the China Update Book Series include: 2002 China: WTO Entry and World Recession 2003 China: New Engine of World Growth 2004 China: Is Rapid Growth Sustainable? 2005 The China Boom and its Discontents 2006 China: The Turning Point in China’s Economic Development 2007 Linking Markets for Growth 2008 China’s Dilemma: Economic Growth, the Environment and Climate Change All books in The China Update Book Series are edited by Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song, except China’s Dilemma, edited by Ligang Song and Wing Thye Woo. Print copies of the books can be obtained from ANU E Press. Electronic copies can be downloaded free from http://epress.anu.edu.au CHINA’S NEW PLACE IN A WORLD IN CRISIS ECONOMIC, GEOPOLITICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS Ross Garnaut, Ligang Song and Wing Thye Woo (eds) THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY E PRESS มࣷ੔ბ࿔၅؜Ӳม SOCIAL SCIENCES ACADEMIC PRESS(CHINA) E P R E S S Published by ANU E Press The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at: http://epress.anu.edu.au/china_new_place_citation.html Co-published with SOCIAL SCIENCES ACADEMIC PRESS (CHINA) C H I N A B O O K under the China Book International scheme. This scheme supports INTERNATIONAL co-publication of works with international publishers. National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: China’s new place in a world in crisis : economic geopolitical and environmental dimensions / editors Ross Garnaut, Ligang Song, Wing Thye Woo. ISBN: 9781921536960 (pbk.) 9781921536977 (pdf) Notes: Includes index. Bibliography. Subjects: Economic development--Environmental aspects--China Energy consumption--China. Industrialization--China. China--Economic conditions. China--Economic policy. China--Environmental conditions. China--Commercial policy. Other Authors/Contributors: Garnaut, Ross. Song, Ligang. Woo, Wing Thye. Dewey Number: 338.951 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design and layout by Teresa Prowse, www.madebyfruitcup.com Cover image: “black and white of Shang” iStock photo # 2552759. www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-2552759-black-and-white-of-shang.php Printed by University Printing Services, ANU This edition © 2009 ANU E Press Contents Tables . .vii Figures . xi Abbreviations . xv Contributors . xix Acknowledgments . xxiii Part I China’s New Place in World Economy and Politics 1 . China’s place in a world in crisis . 1 Ross Garnaut 2. China and international financial reform . 15 Wing Thye Woo 3. From an efficient to a viable international financial market . 33 Chen Ping 4 . China’s increasing external wealth . 59 Guonan Ma and Haiwen Zhou 5. The geo-strategic implications of China’s growth . 89 Hugh White Part II Macroeconomic Adjustments Amid Global Recession 6 . China’s exchange rate policy, its current account surplus, and the global imbalances . 103 W. Max Corden 7. Macroeconomic performance amid global crisis . 121 Yiping Huang, Ken Peng and Minggao Shen 8 . Economic crisis, Keynesianism and structural imbalance in China . 137 Xiaolu Wang and Fan Gang 9. State-owned enterprises in China: reform dynamics and impacts . 155 Xiao Geng, Xiuke Yang and Anna Janus v China’s New Place in a World in Crisis 10 . Economic transition and labour market integration in China . 179 Prema-chandra Athukorala, Kyoji Fukao and Tangjun Yuan 11 . Flying geese within borders: how does China sustain its labour-intensive industries? . 209 Cai Fang, Dewen Wang and Qu Yue 12. Impact of economic slowdown on migrant workers . 233 Sherry Tao Kong, Xin Meng and Dandan Zhang Part III Economic Integration 13. Global implications of China as a manufacturing powerhouse . 261 Huw McKay and Ligang Song 14 . China’s textile and clothing trade and global adjustment . 303 Will Martin 15. Inflow of foreign direct investment . 325 Chunlai Chen 16. Chinese foreign direct investment in the Australian resource sector . 349 Peter Drysdale and Christopher Findlay Part IV The Environment and Climate Change 17 . Greenhouse gas emissions reduction: a theoretical framework and global solution . 389 Project Team of the Development Research Centre of the State Council, People’s Republic of China 18 . Can China rescue the global climate change negotiations? . 409 Stephen Howes 19 . Moving towards low-carbon economic growth . 431 Jinjun Xue Index . 455 vi Tables 2 .1 The world economy in 2005, 2025 and 2050 according to GDP . .22 3.1 Market variability and effective number for various aggregate indexes . .40 3.2 Numbers of households and firms in the United States, 1980 . .40 4 .1 China’s international investment position . .63 4 .2 International investment positions: China and Asia, 2007 . .65 4.3 Determinants of China’s net foreign asset position . .71 4.4 Determinants of China’s net foreign asset position . .72 4.5 Determinants of the gross external investment positions of the OECD economies . .78 4 .6 China’s projected gross external investment position . .79 6.1 China: surplus on current account, per cent of GDP . 103 8.1 Outstanding debt in the United States . 142 8.2 Structural imbalance in China: growth of GDP and its components . 148 9.1 Structure and performance of SOEs in large and medium-sized industrial enterprises, 2005 . 158 9.2 Structure and performance of top-500 Chinese enterprises in 2007, by ownership . 158 9.3 Structure and performance of top-500 Chinese manufacturing enterprises in 2007, by ownership . 159 9.4 Structure and performance of top-500 Chinese enterprises in the service industry in 2007, by ownership . 159 9.5 Structure and performance of Fortune Global 500 in 2007, by country . 160 9.6 Top-five enterprises in Asia in 2006, by revenue . 160 9.7 Top-five biggest employers in the world, 2006 . 160 9.8 Performance of top-500 Chinese and global companies . 161 9.9 The number of industrial SOEs in China, 1995–2005 . 162 9.10 Assets and profits of SOEs in large and medium-sized industrial enterprises . 163 9.11 The number and performance of SOEs in the competitive market . 163 9.12 The number and performance of SOEs in the strategic market . 164 vii China’s New Place in a World in Crisis 9 .13 Total assets in the strategic and competitive markets in 2005 . 165 9.14 Performance of NSEs in large and medium-sized industrial enterprises . 166 9.15 Structure and performance of SOEs in strategic and competitive markets, 2005 . 167 9 .16 China’s household income and consumption, 2007 . .168 9.17 The number of Chinese enterprises in the Fortune Global 500 . 168 A9.4 Length of transportation routes . 175 A9.5 Number of berths in major coastal ports . 176 A9 .6 Postal delivery routes . 177 A9.7 Main communication capacity of telecommunications . 178 10.1 China: population statistics, 1985–2005 . 186 10.2 Labour force and employment . 188 10.3 Registered unemployment rates by province, 1995–2005 . 190 10 .4 Real wages (monthly) by province . 195 10 .5 Average wage in TVEs relative to average wages in urban private firms . 199 11.1 Regression results of gross output values in log form . 220 11.2 Growth and contribution of total factor productivity . 221 11.3 Compensation and labour productivity of China’s manufacturing, 2000–07 . 226 11.4 Compensation and marginal productivity of labour by region . 228 12.1 Distribution of workplaces and rural migrants across city and industry: 2007 census data . 243 12.2 Distribution of closed workplaces and shutdown rate: 2009 re-census Data . 245 12.3 Proportion of rural migrant employment being affected by shutdown . 248 12.4 Attrition rates for the three trackings . 251 12.5 Proportion of migrants not being found in the February 2009 tracking by city and industry . 252 12.6 Regression results on probability of being tracked in each of the three trackings . 254 13 .1 Investment to GDP ratios during rapid industrialisation periods . 266 13.2 Dynamic substitution in the United States, 1820–1913 . 272 13.3 Dynamic substitution in Japan, 1876–1940 . 272 14 .1 Quota enlargement under the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing, 1994–2004 . 305 viii Tables 14.2 Estimated export tax equivalents of quotas in key supplying regions, 2002–03 . 306 14.3 Quotas imposed by the United States on exports from China . 310 14 .4 Adjustments in China’s textile export quotas to the European Community . 311 14.5 China’s value shares of US textile and clothing markets . 312 14.6 Changes in China’s value shares of EU-27 textile and clothing markets . 313 14.7 China’s share of developing-country exports of textiles and clothing . 314 14 .8 China’s revealed comparative advantage . 316 A14.1 Export tax equivalents of clothing quotas in the United States . 320 16 .1 Australia’s total merchandise trade, by trading partner . 355 16 .2 Australia’s merchandise exports, by trading partner . 356 16 .3 Australia’s merchandise imports, by trading partner . 357 16 .4 Chinese investment in Australia by industry, as approved by the Foreign Investment Review Board, 1992–2007 . 359 17.1 Emissions data for each country (hypothetical) . 398 17.2 National emissions account during T0–T1 . 399 17.3 National emissions account during T1–T2 . 399 19.1 An international comparison of high-growth periods . 442 ix Figures 3.1 Currency depreciation pressure indexes for the euro, yen, pound sterling and renminbi, January 1999 – February 1999 . .35 3.2 Time trajectories of various US interest rates . .36 3.3 Endogenous nature of S&P 500 index movements .
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