Harmonious Development Between Socio-Economy and River-Lake Water Systems in Xiangyang City, China

water

Article Harmonious Development between Socio-Economy and River-Lake Water Systems in Xiangyang City, China

Qiting Zuo 1,2, Zengliang Luo 1 and Xiangyi Ding 3,*

1 School of Water Conservancy & Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; [email protected] (Q.Z.); [email protected] (Z.L.) 2 Center for Water Science Research, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China 3 Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Reasearch, Beijing 100038, China * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-10-6878-1373

Academic Editor: Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt Received: 18 September 2016; Accepted: 31 October 2016; Published: 4 November 2016

Abstract: River-lake water systems (RLS) are important carriers for matter transformation and energy transmission. Influenced by accelerated social and economic development, the structural, functional, and environmental states of RLS have been seriously damaged. It is an important problem for human beings to coordinate the contradiction between socio-economic development and the protection of RLS. In order to quantitatively study the harmonious relationship between socio-economic development and the state of RLS, the harmony theory method was used to analyze the degree of harmonious development between socio-economy and RLS in this study taking Xiangyang City as an example, and formulating corresponding harmonious optimization schemes. The results indicate that: (1) the state of RLS had a relatively small change during 2009–2014, and its spatial distribution shows a decreasing trend with the Han River as the central axis decreases on both of its sides; (2) before 2011, the driving force of socio-economic development in Xiang yang City mainly originated in the peripheral regions such as Laohekou City, Zaoyang City, and Gucheng County, but after 2011, it migrated rapidly towards Downtown, and reached the maximum in 2014; (3) when the influence of regional socio-economic development on RLS is small, socio-economic development is the main factor driving the change of the overall harmonious development degree of socio-economy and RLS. However when the influence is big, it is combined, driven by socio-economic development and the state of RLS; (4) the main factors affecting the overall harmonious degree of socio-economy and RLS in Xiangyang City include: river length, standard ratio of water quality, water consumption per capita, reservoir regulation capability, farmland irrigation water consumption per Mu (Mu is an area unit in China, 1 Mu approximately equals to 666.67 m2), and sewage treatment rate. This study can provide a reference for the future analysis of the harmonious development between socio-economy and RLS, as well as in formulating corresponding harmonious optimization schemes in China and other countries in a similar situation.

Keywords: socio-economic development; river-lake water system; harmony theory; harmonious development; Xiangyang City

1. Introduction As the major carrier of water resources and main participant of the natural and social water cycle, the river-lake water system (RLS) plays an irreplaceable role in regional development and environmental protection. The formation and development of RLS is inﬂuenced by many natural

Water 2016, 8, 509; doi:10.3390/w8110509 www.mdpi.com/journal/water Water 2016, 8, 509 2 of 19 factors, such as geology, topography, soil, hydrology, climate, and vegetation, and social factors, such as dredging, sand mining, power, shipping, and aquiculture [1,2]. Moreover, the structure and function of RLS is usually altered to meet the needs of people for water, energy, transportation, recreation, storage, and discharge under the influence of human activities [3,4]. Nowadays, with the rapid development of socio-economy and population growth, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively to meet the rapidly growing demand for food, fresh water, timber, fiber, and fuel [5]. While water can contribute to economic development, the latter can pose a significant threat to water resources, if there is no control over effluent release and extraction of the resource [6]. Thus it is necessary and urgent to study the harmonious development relationships between socio-economy and RLS. The study of human and natural systems experienced a stage change from qualitative analysis to quantitative research. As early as two thousand years ago, the ancient philosophers of China put forward the idea of “harmony between man and nature”. For example the thoughts of “Shun Tian” proposed by Zhuangzi are representative. He believed that the laws of nature cannot be changed by the human will, and we, human beings, should conform to these objective laws. Since the start of modern times, with the increasingly serious global environmental problems, the relationship between humans and nature is valued in a real sense, especially after the industrial revolution. People began to reflect on the way to get along with nature in harmony. Representative works during this period include: “Our Plundered Planet” published by Osborn in 1948, “Road to Survival” published by William Vogt in 1948, “Silent Spring” published by Carson in 1962, etc. In the academic field, initially, some qualitative research methods included observation, questionnaire survey, experience judgment and so on. After the 1970s, with the further research of human and nature issues, a large number of quantitative theoretical methods were gradually applied to the study of coupled human and nature systems, and the research of human and natural systems tends to become quantified. The main methods include: the Synergetic theory proposed by the German physicist Hermann Haken in 1971 [7], the System theory proposed by L. Von. Bertalanffy in the mid-20th century [8], the calculation method of ecological carrying capacity proposed by Robert Goodland et al. [9], Set Pair Analysis proposed by Keqin Zhao in 1989 [10], Complexity theory [11], Multi-agent models [12], Ecosystem coupling theory [13] etc. Nowadays, with the further study of system complexity [14–16], the method of multi-disciplinary cross is gradually being applied to the study of relationships between human and nature systems, and the factors to be considered are constantly expanding, including human activities, economy, society, and ecology. For example, contribution of [14] in the study of feedback loops, thresholds, time lags and so on. The research about RLS mostly focuses on impacts of climate changes [17,18], human activities [19,20] and urbanization [21], as well as on ecology and the environment of rivers and lakes. Some comprehensive researches, taking rivers and lakes as the carrier, mainly focus on the coordinated development relationships of ecology, economy, and society to provide decision support for water resources management. Koundouri, et al. [6] described a methodology which aims to achieve sustainable and environmental and socio-economic management of freshwater ecosystem services. Wang et al. [22] devised an integrated ecological-economic-social model to assess the implementation of eco-system-based fisheries management in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in the South China Sea. However, the harmonious development relation between socio-economy and RLS has been less discussed from the perspective of the internal system. Socio-economic development and RLS is an organic unity with both factors interacting and affecting each other. It is necessary to research the harmonious development relationships of them from the viewpoint of the system. Xiangyang City, which is the deputy center city of Hubei province, has a well-developed river system as well as rich vegetation and mineral resources. It is one of the national demonstration cities of green development because of its unique natural geographical features and good ecological environmental situation. Xiangyang City is located between the world’s largest continent (Eurasian continent) and the world’s largest ocean (Pacific Ocean), belongs to a subtropical monsoon climate, and has the characteristics of severe changes of temperature and rainfall in summer and winter. In summer, Water 2016, 8, 509 3 of 19 solar radiation is strong, rainfall is abundant, humidity is high, and as the evaporation is less than precipitation, the surface runoff increases. In the winter, solar radiation is greatly reduced, the weather is cold and dry, and the rainfall is less. However, in recent years, in order to satisfy the needs of irrigation, power generation, and urban water supply, the development and utilization of RLS has been accelerated in Xiangyang City, and the structure, function and environmental conditions of RLS have been affected seriously. In order to alleviate contradiction between rapidly increased socio-economic development and protection of RLS, relevant adaptive management measures need to be taken urgently in Xiangyang City to ensure complete structure, perfect functioning, and good ecological environment of RLS while realizing stable and rapid socio-economic development. The objectives of this study are to: (1) put forward the research framework of harmonious development between socio-economy and RLS, and introduce a new theory of related research; (2) analyze temporal variation and the spatial distribution pattern of socio-economic development and the state of RLS between 2009 and 2014 in Xiangyang City, respectively; (3) research the harmonious development relationships between socio-economy and RLS, the main influencing factors, and corresponding harmonious optimization schemes in Xiangyang City. This study is of theoretical and practical merit in promoting socio-economic development and maintaining the health of RLS in urban areas.

2. Study Area and Data

2.1. Study Area Xiangyang City, which is located in the northwest of Hubei Province and the plain hinterland of the middle reaches of the Han River, has a total area of 197,000 km2 (Figure1). It includes seven administrative divisions, Zaoyang City, Yicheng City, Laohekou City, Nanzhang County, Gucheng County, Baokang County, and Downtown. The study area belongs to a subtropical monsoon climate transition zone, and has a north-south transitional climate characteristic of four distinctive seasons, warm weather, sufﬁcient sunshine, moderate rainfall, hot and rainy in summer, and cold and dry in winter. Precipitation, with a decreasing trend from southwest to northeast, is abundant within the area, and the average annual precipitation is about 800–1000 mm. Precipitation is unevenly distributed during the year, and the depth of runoff is about 309.5 mm. The average annual evapotranspiration is about 941 mm, and the average annual temperature is about 15.1–16.9 ◦C. River systems are well-developed in Xiangyang City with a total of large and small rivers of 649, mainly including Han River, Xiaoqing River, Tangbai River, White River, Tang River, Gun River, Sha River, South River, North River, Man River, Ju River, Zhang River, etc. In recent years, socio-economy has been growing fast in Xiangyang City. Great efforts have been made in traditional industries and emerging industries, and an industrial system has been formed with the mainstay of equipment manufacturing, new energy vehicles, new energy and new materials, electronic information, pharmaceutical engineering, and intensive processing of agricultural products. In 2014, the city’s total GDP reached 312.93 billion yuan, accounting for 11.4% of Hubei province. The rapid development of the social economy has caused serious impacts on rivers and lakes. Therefore, it has become urgent and necessary to study the harmonious development relations between socio-economy and RLS. Water 2016, 8, 509 4 of 19 Water 2016, 8, 509 4 of 19

FigureFigure 1.1. LocationLocation ofof thethe StudyStudy Area,Area, RiversRivers andand AdministrativeAdministrative Divisions.Divisions. AA:: HanHan River;River; BB:: NorthNorth River;River;C C:: South South River; River;D D: Xiaoqing: Xiaoqing River; River;E: WhiteE: White River; River;F: Tang F: Tang River; River;G: Tangbai G: Tangbai River; River;H: Sha H River;: Sha IRiver;: Gun River;I: Gun JRiver;: Man J River;: Man KRiver;: Zhang K: Zhang River; LRiver;: Ju River. L: Ju River.

2.2.2.2. DataData Socio-economySocio‐economy andand RLSRLS datadata coveringcovering thethe periodperiod ofof 2009–20142009–2014 areare usedused toto analyzeanalyze thethe temporaltemporal andand spatialspatial variationvariation characteristicscharacteristics ofof socialsocial economyeconomy development,development, the state ofof RLS,RLS, andand theirtheir harmoniousharmonious development development relationships. relationships. Socio-economic Socio‐economic development development data data were were obtained obtained mainly mainly from thefrom Statistical the Statistical Review, WaterReview, Resources Water Bulletin,Resources and Bulletin, Environment and Environment Quality Bulletin Quality of Xiangyang Bulletin City. of SomeXiangyang data City. were Some provided data bywere Xiangyang’s provided by Hydrological Xiangyang’s Bureau Hydrological and the Bureau Statistical and the Bureau Statistical and EnvironmentalBureau and Environmental Protection Bureau. Protection RLS state Bureau. data RLS including state data the river including network the and, river the network reservoirs, and, were the extractedreservoirs, from were remotely extracted sensed from imageryremotely and sensed DEM imagery (Digital and Elevation DEM (Digital Model). Elevation Model).

3.3. Methodology Methodology

3.1.3.1. ResearchResearch IdeaIdea 3.1.1. Theory Basis 3.1.1. Theory Basis Socio-economic development cannot be separated from the support of RLS, and will inevitably Socio‐economic development cannot be separated from the support of RLS, and will inevitably have a negative impact on its structural, functional and environmental state. If the ideal pattern of have a negative impact on its structural, functional and environmental state. If the ideal pattern of regional development is understood as the high level of socio-economic development and the good regional development is understood as the high level of socio‐economic development and the good condition of RLS, then, from the systematic perspective, how to study the harmonious relationship condition of RLS, then, from the systematic perspective, how to study the harmonious relationship between them is an urgent problem needing to be solved. The harmony theory which innovatively between them is an urgent problem needing to be solved. The harmony theory which innovatively combines the society system with the water system, is a systematic method used to quantitatively combines the society system with the water system, is a systematic method used to quantitatively study the harmonious relationship between the two systems [23]. It has the following characteristics: study the harmonious relationship between the two systems [23]. It has the following characteristics: (1) the concept of “Harmony” has been advocated to handle relationships between human and nature (1) the concept of “Harmony” has been advocated to handle relationships between human and systems in the harmony theory; (2) the harmony theory advocates understanding contradictions and nature systems in the harmony theory; (2) the harmony theory advocates understanding conflicts existing in harmonious issues, such as human and nature systems, allowing the existence contradictions and conflicts existing in harmonious issues, such as human and nature systems, of “differences”, and advocates to dealing with these contradictions and conflicts with a harmonious allowing the existence of “differences”, and advocates to dealing with these contradictions and attitude; (3) the harmony theory insists on a people-oriented, comprehensive, coordinated, and conflicts with a harmonious attitude; (3) the harmony theory insists on a people‐oriented, sustainable scientific development view, to solve all kinds of problems faced by nature and human comprehensive, coordinated, and sustainable scientific development view, to solve all kinds of society; (4) the harmony theory pays close attention to the dialectical relationship between humans and problems faced by nature and human society; (4) the harmony theory pays close attention to the dialectical relationship between humans and nature, advocates the idea of harmony between

Water 2016, 8, 509 5 of 19 nature, advocates the idea of harmony between humans and nature, and thinks that it is necessary and possible to achieve a coordinated development between humans and nature; (5) the harmony theory insists on the basic point of view of system theory and advocates that system theory should be used in the study of harmony. The structural, functional and environmental state of RLS is comprehensively represented by the state index of RLS (RLSI) which varies from 0 to 1, and larger values represent a better state of RLS and vice versa. The socio-economic development index (SEDI), which also varies from 0 to 1, is used to represent the level of regional economic and social development, and larger values illustrate a higher level and vice versa. In order to analyze the harmonious development degree between socio-economy and RLS, the harmonious development index P with a variation range from 0 to 1 is proposed based on the harmony theory. The larger values illustrate a higher harmonious development degree and vice versa. In addition, the overall harmonious development degree of socio-economy and RLS is divided into four types based on the values of RLSI and SEDI (Table1). Type I: RLSI and SEDI are both equal to or greater than 0.7 (It should be noted that, based on the evaluation results in the regions with highly developed socio-economy and good state of RLS in China, we found that, when the SEDI reaches 0.7, the level of socio-economic development is slightly higher than the average level of highly developed regions, and when the RLSI reaches 0.7, the state of RLS is slightly higher than the average level of good RLS state regions. Therefore, 0.7 was selected as the threshold for both RLSI and SEDI). In this case, the state of RLS is good and the level of socio-economic development is high, belonging to an acceptable situation on current level of socio-economic development and state of RLS. Type II: RLS is equal and greater than 0.7, but SEDI is less than 0.7. In this case, the state of RLS is good, but the level of socio-economic development is low. Great efforts should be focused on socio-economic development while maintaining a good state of RLS. Type III: SEDI is equal or greater than 0.7, but SEDI is less than 0.7. In this case, the state of RLS is poor, and the level of socio-economic development is high. Great efforts should be focused on the improvement of the state of RLS while taking socio-economic development into account. Type IV: RLSI and SEDI are both less than or equal to 0.7. In this case, the state of RLS is poor and the level of socio-economic development is low. This type easily occurs in the areas where the structure of RLS is relatively not developed, so the harmonious development of socio-economy and RLS should be taken into account.

Table 1. Harmonious development types of regional socio-economy and river-lake water systems (RLS).

Type RLSI SEDI Description I ≥0.7 ≥0.7 Good state of RLS and high level of socio-economic development II ≥0.7 <0.7 Good state of RLS and low level of socio-economic development III <0.7 ≥0.7 Poor state of RLS and high level of socio-economic development IV ≤0.7 ≤0.7 Poor state of RLS and low level of socio-economic development

3.1.2. Research Framework The statistical data covering 2009 to 2014 was used to comprehensively analyze the state of RLS and the level of socio-economic development in Xiangyang City. Additionally, the harmonious development schemes of socio-economy and RLS were studied based on the harmony theory. The study steps include: (1) The index system reﬂecting the harmonious development degree of socio-economy and RLS is constructed based on systematic, representative and easily accessible principles from the aspects of socio-economy and RLS, respectively; (2) RLSI and SEDI are calculated separately using the method of single index quantiﬁcation and multiple index synthesis (SI-MI), and the overall harmonious development index P is calculated based on RLSI and SEDI; (3) The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the state of RLS are analyzed as well as the level of socio-economic development and overall harmonious development degree of Xiangyang City; (4) Comprehensive regulation combing with the harmony equilibrium regulation model is carried out and adaptive optimization solutions Water 2016, 8, 509 6 of 19 and countermeasures are proposed, in order to improve the harmonious development degree of socio-economyWater 2016, 8, 509 and RLS in Xiangyang City. The research framework is shown in Figure2. 6 of 19

Socio-economy interaction RLS system system

Index system

Data input Regulation schemes Temporal and Harmony index spatial variation calculation: characteristics RLSI, SEDI, P Analysis on driving factors Harmony N equilibrium judgment Harmony equilibrium Y regulation model

Output

Figure 2.2. Framework of harmonious development between socio-economysocio‐economy and river-lakeriver‐lake water systems (RLS) in Xiangyang City.

3.2. Construction of Index System A good condition of RLS can be understood as being an integrated structure, a perfect function, and a good ecological environmental condition. The level of socio-economicsocio‐economic development is usually measured fromfrom thethe two two aspects aspects of of society society and and economy. economy. Therefore, Therefore, the the indexes indexes of theof the state state of RLS of RLS are selectedare selected from from the aspects the aspects of structural of structural subsystem, subsystem, functional functional subsystem, subsystem, and environmental and environmental subsystem basedsubsystem on systematic, based on representative systematic, andrepresentative easily accessible and principleseasily accessible (Table2 ).principles The structural (Table subsystem 2). The isstructural an important subsystem reflection is an of important the structural reflection change of of the RLS, structural which can change usually of be RLS, expressed which can from usually the point be ofexpressed view of threefrom aspects: the point quantity of view structure, of three structure aspects: law, andquantity connectivity. structure, Therefore, structure the law, drainage and densityconnectivity. and water Therefore, surface the rate drainage are selected density to and reflect water the changesurface ofrate quantitative are selected characteristics to reflect the change of RLS; theof quantitative area and length characteristics ratio of backbone of RLS; rivers, the andarea the and river length network ratio development of backbone coefficient rivers, and are the selected river tonetwork reflect development the change of coefficient RLS in law; are the selected longitudinal to reflect connectivity the change is selectedof RLS in to law; reflect the the longitudinal change of connectivity ofis RLS.selected Industry, to reflect agriculture, the change and of urban connectivity development of RLS. mainly Industry, depend agriculture, on the surface and urban water duedevelopment to the abundant mainly riversdepend in on the the Xiangyang surface water City, due and to a large the abundant number ofrivers reservoirs in the Xiangyang have been built.City, Additionally,and a large number surface waterof reservoirs pollution have caused been by built. human Additionally, activities has surface a great water influence pollution on the caused river and by lakehuman functions. activities Therefore, has a great surface influence water supplyon the andriver reservoir and lake regulation functions. ability Therefore, are selected surface to reflectwater thesupply change and of reservoir the functional regulation status ability of RLS, are and selected the water to reflect quality the standard change river of the length functional ratio is status selected of toRLS, reflect and the the change water ofquality the environmental standard river state length of RLS. ratio Indexes is selected of socio-economic to reflect the development change of arethe selectedenvironmental from the state two aspectsof RLS. of Indexes social subsystem of socio‐economic and economic development subsystem are (Table selected2). Xiangyang from the City two is theaspects main of grain social producing subsystem area and of China, economic and agriculturalsubsystem (Table non-point 2). Xiangyang source pollution City hasis the a great main impact grain onproducing rivers and area lakes of China, ecosystems. and agricultural In recent years, non‐ industrypoint source in the pollution city has beenhas a developing great impact rapidly, on rivers and theand demand lakes ecosystems. for water is In increasing. recent years, However, industry the in existing the city sewage has been treatment developing capacity rapidly, is limited and andthe needsdemand to befor upgraded water is urgently.increasing. Therefore, However, considering the existing the layoutsewage of treatment the industrial capacity structure is limited and future and developmentneeds to be upgraded trends in theurgently. city, indexes Therefore, including considering water consumption the layout of per the capita, industrial water structure consumption and perfuture 10,000 development yuan of GDP, trends water in consumptionthe city, indexes per 10,000including yuan water of industrial consumption added per value, capita, farmland water averageconsumption per irrigation per 10,000 water yuan consumption, of GDP, water and consumption sewage treatment per 10,000 rate yuan are selected of industrial to reflect added its value, social development;farmland average GDP per per irrigation capita and water GDP consumption, growth rate areand selected sewage to treatment reflect its rate economic are selected development. to reflect its social development; GDP per capita and GDP growth rate are selected to reflect its economic development.

Water 2016, 8, 509 7 of 19

Table 2. Evaluation index system of harmonious development between socio-economy and RLS.

Goal Level Category Level Subsystem Level Index Level Number

3 Water consumption per capita (m /person) X11 Water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP X (m3/10,000 yuan) 12

Social subsystem Mu of farmland irrigation water 3 X13 Socio-economy consumption (m /mu) Water consumption per 10,000 yuan of X industrial added value (m3/10,000 yuan) 14

Sewage treatment rate (%) X15

GDP per capita (yuan) X21 Harmonious Economic subsystem development of GDP growth rate (%) X22 socio-economy and RLS Drainage density (1/km) X41

Water surface rate (%) X42

Area and length ratio of backbone rivers (km) X43 Structural subsystem River network development coefﬁcient (-) X44

RLS Riverbank stability (-) X45

Longitudinal connectivity (-) X46 8 3 Surface water supply (10 m ) X51 Functional subsystem Reservoir regulation ability (-) X52 Environmental Water quality standard river length ratio (%) X subsystem 53

3.3. Calculation of RLSI and SEDI The SI-MI method uses the harmonious calculation results achieved by a certain calculation method to synthetically represent the harmonious degree of the harmony problem by establishing an index system and evaluation criteria. The method includes three aspects: establishing the index system, determining the evaluation criteria, and selecting the quantitative calculation method. The comprehensive indexes of RLSI and SEDI reﬂecting the overall level of the system are calculated using the method of SI-MI from the perspective of systematic analysis [24].

3.3.1. Harmony Index of Single Indexes The harmony degree is an important index to express the harmonious degree of participants, such as socio-economic system and RLS system, quantitatively. For a harmonious problem, the following ﬁve questions should be solved before the calculation of the harmony degree: (1) Harmony participators: the participators of a harmonious problem; (2) Harmony objective: objectives that must be met by participators to achieve the harmony state in a harmonious problem; (3) Harmony regulation: regulations or constraints developed for achieving the harmony objectives; (4) Harmony factor: the factors that need to be considered for the harmony participators to achieve the whole harmony; (5) Harmony action: the general term of speciﬁc behaviors taken by harmony participators for harmony factors. Two types of methods could be used to calculate the harmony index of single indexes, the quantitative calculation method based on the harmony degree equation and the quantitative calculation method based on the fuzzy membership function. a. Calculation method of harmony index based on the harmony degree equation [25,26]

The harmony degree equation proposed by Zuo [23] is an important calculating method for the quantitative expression of the harmonious development degree of participants. The harmony degree equation for single indexes can be calculated as follows:

HD = ai − bj (1) Water 2016, 8, 509 8 of 19 where HD is the harmony degree of a specified index F, HD ∈ [−1, 1]. The greater value of HD (or Water 2016, 8, 509 8 of 19 closer to 1), the higher of the harmony degree. The variables a and b are the unity degree and the difference degree, respectively. a, b ∈ [0,1] and a + b ≤ 1. The unity degree a expresses the proportion b. Calculation method of harmony degree based on fuzzy membership function of harmony participants in accordance with harmony rules with the same goal. The difference degree b expressesZadeh the [27] proportion proposed of the harmony method participants of fuzzy membership with divergent function harmony in dimensionless rules and goals. treatment The specific of indicators.meaning of In the the harmony indicator equation system, iseach expressed indicator in has Zuo a et harmony al. [25]. degree with the value ranges from 0 to 1. In order to quantify the harmony degree of a single indicator, the following assumptions are made:b. Calculation there are five method eigenvalues of harmony for each degree index: based the best, on fuzzy good, membership general, poor function and worst value. When the index value is less than or equal to the worst value, the harmony degree of the indicator is 0; whenZadeh the indicator [27] proposed value is the equal method to the of poor fuzzy value, membership the harmony function degree in of dimensionless the indicator treatmentis 0.3; when of theindicators. indicator In value the indicator is equal to system, the general each indicator value, the has harmony a harmony degree degree of the with indicator the value is 0.6; ranges when from the indicator0 to 1. In ordervalue tois quantifyequal to thethe harmonygood value, degree the ofharmony a single degree indicator, of the followingindicator is assumptions 0.8; when the are indicatormade: there value are is five equal eigenvalues to the best for value, each the index: harmony the best, degree good, of general, the indicator poor and is 1. worst So, single value. indexes When the index value is less than or equal to the worst value, the harmony degree of the indicator is 0; are mapped to the range of 0 to 1 using the fuzzy membership function of μ ()x  fx (), μ [0, 1] . when the indicator value is equal to the poor value, the harmony degree of thekk indicator isk 0.3; when They are divided into positive and negative indexes based on relationships with the harmony the indicator value is equal to the general value, the harmony degree of the indicator is 0.6; when degree. The values of the harmony degree of positive indexes increase with the increase of index the indicator value is equal to the good value, the harmony degree of the indicator is 0.8; when the values, and reverse for the negative indexes. Calculation curves and mathematical expression of indicator value is equal to the best value, the harmony degree of the indicator is 1. So, single indexes harmony degree of positive and negative indexes are shown in Figure 3 and Formula (2), are mapped to the range of 0 to 1 using the fuzzy membership function of µk(x) = fk(x), µk ∈ [0, 1]. respectively. They are divided into positive and negative indexes based on relationships with the harmony degree. 1 x  e The values of the harmony degree0 of positivexii a indexes increase with the increaseii of index values, and   reverse for the negative indexes. Calculation curves and mathematicaldx expression of harmony degree  xaii  ii 0.3 axb  0.8 0.2exdiii  iii  of positive and negative indexesba are shown in Figure3 and Formuladeii (2), respectively.  ii   xb  cx  ii ;  ii 0.3 0.3bxciii 0.6 0.2dxciii 0 cb xi ≤ ai 1 cd xi ≤ ei   ii   ii  SI  SIi     i xi−ai  di−xi (2) 0.3 xc a < x ≤ b  0.8 +xb0.2ii e < x ≤ d  bi−ai iii i i  di−ei i i i  0.6 0.2cxdiii 0.3 0.3cxbiii   x −bdc   cb c −x 0.3 +0.3 i i iib < x ≤ c  0.6 +0.2iii i d < x ≤ c ci−bi i i i ci−di i i i SIi =  xd ; SIi = xa (2) xi−ci ii iixi−bi 0.8 0.2 dxe  0.3bxaiii  0.6 + 0.2 d −c ci

FigureFigure 3. 3. CalculationCalculation curves curves of of harmony harmony degree: degree: ( (aa)) positive positive indexes; indexes; ( (bb)) negative negative indexes. indexes.

3.3.2. RLSI Multiple index synthesis is the weighted calculation process for the harmony degree of a single index. Assuming that the value of a quantitative index is YTi () at time T, then its harmony degree i calculated using Formula (2) is SIi (()) Y T . RLSI is expressed as:

nn12n3 ii i RLSI() T f () xβ1112 wii SI Y()+ Tβ w SI 22333  Y() T β  w i SI  Y() T (3) ii11 i  1

Water 2016, 8, 509 9 of 19

3.3.2. RLSI Multiple index synthesis is the weighted calculation process for the harmony degree of a single index. Assuming that the value of a quantitative index is Yi(T) at time T, then its harmony degree i calculated using Formula (2) is SIi(Y (T)). RLSI is expressed as:

n1 n2 n3 i i i RLSI(T) = f (x) = β1 ∑ wiSI1 Y1(T) +β2 ∑ wiSI2 Y2(T) + β3 ∑ wiSI3 Y3(T) (3) i=1 i=1 i=1 where RSNI(T) is the state index of RLS at time T, RSNI(T) ∈ [0, 1], and the closer to 1 of the value, the better the state of RLS. β1, β2, and β3 are the weights of structural subsystem state index, functional subsystem state index, and environmental subsystem state index, respectively, βi ∈ [0, 1], m and ∑i=1 βi = 1. n1, n2 and n3 are numbers of performance indicators of the three types of subsystem state indexes; wi is the weight of index i.

3.3.3. SEDI The calculation method of SEDI is similar to RLSI. They are both based on the calculation results of the single index harmony degree. The concrete calculation formula is listed as follows:

n4 n5 i i SEDI(T) = g(y) = β4 ∑ wiSI4 Y4(T) +β5 ∑ wiSI5 Y5(T) (4) i=1 i=1 where SEDI(T) is the socio-economic development index at time T, SEDI(T) ∈ [0, 1], and the closer to 1 of the value, the higher the socio-economic development level. β4 and β5 are the weights of economic subsystem and social subsystem, respectively, βi ∈ [0, 1], and β4 + β5 = 1. n4 and n5 are the number of performance indicators of economic subsystem and social subsystem. wi is the weight of index i.

3.4. Calculation of Harmonious Development Index The harmonious development index P is introduced to reﬂect the overall harmonious development degree of socio-economy and RLS comprehensively based on the calculation results of RLSI and SEDI.

P = α f (x) + βg(y) (5) where P is the harmonious development index of socio-economy and RLS. α and β are the weights of f (x) and g(y) respectively, and α + β = 1. In this paper, α = 0.6, β = 0.4.

3.5. Optimization Method of Harmony Regulation Scheme In order to maximize the overall harmonious development index, the harmonious regulation schemes are optimized using the harmony equilibrium regulation model with harmony equilibrium as the constraint conditions for iteration termination. Harmony equilibrium is a relatively dormant and temporarily acceptable equilibrium state for stakeholders while considering their interests and the overall harmonious goal. The basic form of the harmony equilibrium regulation model is listed as follows [26]:  Z = HD(X) ≥ HD  0 G(X) ≤ 0 (6)  X ≥ 0 where X is the decision vector; HD(X) is the overall harmonious degree of socio-economy and RLS; HD0 is the minimum value of the harmony degree that meets the requirement of harmony equilibrium, that is, the target threshold of harmony degree; G(X) is a set of constraints, which should be written such that the value of each speciﬁc constraint is less than or equal to 0 in the (if the constraint condition is greater than or equal to 0, it can be transformed to less than or equal to 0 by taking the negative) [25]. Water 2016, 8, 509 10 of 19 Water 2016, 8, 509 10 of 19 4. Results and Discussion 4. Results and Discussion 4.1. Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of the RLS State 4.1. Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of the RLS State 4.1.1. Temporal Variation Characteristics 4.1.1.The Temporal calculation Variation results Characteristics of RLSI in each partition are shown in Table 3, and the condition of interThe‐annual calculation variation results of RLSI of is RLSI shown in each in Figure partition 4a. As are can shown be seen in Table from3 ,Figure and the 4a, condition the value of of inter-annualRLSI is small variation (varying of between RLSI is 0.62 shown and in 0.69), Figure and4a. shows As can a be slowly seen fromgrowing Figure trend4a, thefrom value 2009 of to RLSI 2014, isand small the (varyinggrowth rate between is 0.56%. 0.62 It and illustrates 0.69), and that shows the state a slowly of RLS growing in Xiangyang trend from City 2009 is poor, to 2014, but moving and the growthtowards rate a better is 0.56%. direction It illustrates between that 2009 the and state 2014. of RLS We inspeculate Xiangyang that City this isis poor,consistent but moving with the towards actual asituation better direction of the green between sustainable 2009 and development 2014. We speculate strategy that carried this is out consistent vigorously with in the Xiangyang actual situation City in ofrecent the green years sustainable (The systems development of water strategy resources carried protection, out vigorously river‐lake in Xiangyang health security, City in recentand water years (Themanagement systems ofhave water been resources primarily protection, established river-lake after healthnearly security, a decade and of water construction management of water have beenconservancy primarily and established reform of afterwater nearly management a decade system of construction in Xiangyang of water City. conservancyThese efforts andprovide reform an ofimportant water management support and system guarantee in Xiangyang for the improvement City. These efforts of RLS’s provide ecological an important environment). support andThe guaranteeinter‐annual for variation the improvement of RLSI shows of RLS’s a characteristic ecological environment). of decrease‐increase The inter-annual‐decrease, variation i.e., a decreasing of RLSI showstendency a characteristic from 2009 to of 2010, decrease-increase-decrease, an increasing tendency i.e., from a decreasing 2010 to 2013, tendency and fromthen 2009a decreasing to 2010, antendency increasing again tendency until 2014. from 2010The tomain 2013, reason and then for a decreasingthis change tendency may be again that untilthe government 2014. The main of reasonXiangyang for this City change adopted may a series be that of the protection government and restoration of Xiangyang measures City adopted for RLS a under series the of protection appeal of andthe national restoration strategy measures of Interconnected for RLS under River the appealSystem ofNetwork the national proposed strategy in 2009, of Interconnected such as remediation River Systemof pollution Network sources proposed and river in 2009, dredging. such as These remediation measures of have pollution greatly sources promoted and river the improvement dredging. These of measuresthe state of have RLS greatly in the short promoted term. the However, improvement after 2013, of the with state the of fading RLS in of the national short term.policy However, heat, the aftergovernment 2013, with investment the fading intensity of national in protection policy heat, and the restoration government of RLS investment was reduced. intensity The in state protection of RLS andbegan restoration to decline of after RLS a was slow reduced. rise in the The short state time, of RLS and began eventually to decline almost after returned a slow to rise the in same the short level time,as in 2009. and eventually The sensitivity almost of returned RLSI is related to the same to the level property as in 2009.of the The selected sensitivity indexes. of RLSIThe structural is related toindexes the property are less ofaffected the selected by human indexes. activities The structuralin the short indexes term, but are the less functional affected by and human environmental activities inindexes the short are term,opposite, but the and functional they have and a environmentalhigh contribution indexes to the are change opposite, of andRLSI. they Therefore, have a high the contributionfunctional and to environmental the change of RLSI. changes Therefore, of RLS are the the functional main reasons and environmental for the fluctuation changes of the of RLS state are of theRLSI main over reasons a short for time. the ﬂuctuation of the state of RLSI over a short time.

Figure 4.4. Inter-annualInter‐annual variation curve of SEDI and RLSI. (a) RLSI; (b) SEDI. The red lineline isis thethe trendtrend lineline of RLSI andand SEDI,SEDI, respectively.respectively.

Table 3. Calculation results of RLSI from 2009 to 2014 in XiangyangXiangyang City.City. Administrative Divisions 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Administrative Divisions 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Zaoyang City 0.62 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.58 0.55 Zaoyang City 0.62 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.58 0.55 Yicheng CityYicheng City 0.610.61 0.61 0.61 0.670.67 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.65 0.65 LaohekouLaohekou City City 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.760.76 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.75 Nanzhang County 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 GuchengNanzhang County County 0.61 0.65 0.60 0.65 0.690.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.65 Baokang CountyGucheng County 0.54 0.61 0.53 0.60 0.550.69 0.67 0.60 0.68 0.61 0.65 0.54 DowntownBaokang County 0.68 0.54 0.67 0.53 0.690.55 0.60 0.72 0.61 0.69 0.54 0.68 Downtown 0.68 0.67 0.69 0.72 0.69 0.68 For the speciﬁc circumstances of each administrative division (Figure5), the values of RLSI are differentFor the in each specific region, circumstances which vary of between each administrative 0.5 and 0.8 from division 2009 to (Figure 2014. Among 5), the values the administrative of RLSI are different in each region, which vary between 0.5 and 0.8 from 2009 to 2014. Among the

Water 2016, 8, 509 11 of 19 WaterWater2016 2016, 8, ,8 509, 509 1111 of of 19 19 administrativeadministrative divisions, divisions, Zaoyang Zaoyang City City shows shows a a gradually gradually descending descending tendency, tendency, Nanzhang Nanzhang County County divisions,showsshows a a gradually gradually Zaoyang increasing City increasing shows tendency, atendency, gradually and and descending the the rest rest of of tendency, the the regions regions Nanzhang change change Countyin in volatility volatility shows with with a gradually increase increase increasingandand decrease. decrease. tendency, These These illustrate and illustrate the rest that that of the thethe backgrounds regionsbackgrounds change of of inRLS RLS volatility in in different different with regions increaseregions are are and different different decrease. and and These it it is is illustratethethe corresponding corresponding that the backgrounds investment investment of of restoration restoration RLS in different which which regionsleads leads to to are the the different differences differences and of of it state state is the of of corresponding RLS. RLS. Zaoyang Zaoyang investmentisis the the main main grain of grain restoration producing producing which area area leadsof of Xiangyang Xiangyang to the differences City. City. As As the ofthe stateRLS RLS is of is not RLS.not developed, developed, Zaoyang iswater water the mainshortage shortage grain is is producingseriousserious in in Zaoyang areaZaoyang of Xiangyang City, City, agricultural agricultural City. As development thedevelopment RLS is not has has developed, a a great great impact impact water on shortage on RLS, RLS, therefore, therefore, is serious the inthe Zaoyangdecrease decrease City,ofof RLSI RLSI agricultural is is obvious. obvious. development has a great impact on RLS, therefore, the decrease of RLSI is obvious.

Figure 5. Temporal variation process of RLSI in different regions of Xiangyang City. FigureFigure 5. 5.Temporal Temporal variation variation process process of of RLSI RLSI in in different different regions regions of of Xiangyang Xiangyang City. City.

4.1.2.4.1.2. Spatial Spatial Variation Variation Characteristics Characteristics ConsideringConsidering the the spatial spatial characteristic, characteristic, the the high high value value zone zone of of RLSI RLSI is is distributed distributed mainly mainly on on both both sidessides of of the the Han Han River, River, and and the the low low value value zone zone is is distributed distributed mainly mainly mainly in in in the the the east easteast and andand west westwest of ofof the thethe city. city.city. Therefore,Therefore, influencedinfluenced influenced by by by socio-economic socio socio‐economic‐economic development development development and and and the the naturalthe natural natural structural structural structural and functionaland and functional functional state ofstatestate RLS, of of RLS, RLSI RLS, RLSI in RLSI Xiangyang in in Xiangyang Xiangyang City showsCity City shows shows a spatial a a spatial spatial distribution distribution distribution pattern pattern pattern with with thewith Han the the Han River Han River River as an as as axis an an decreasingaxisaxis decreasing decreasing on both on on both both wings wings wings (Figure (Figure (Figure6a). 6a). It6a). can It It can can be be seen be seen seen from from from each each each partition partition partition that that that Laohekou Laohekou Laohekou city city city was was was thethe biggest biggest region region for for RLSI RLSI from from 2009 2009 to to 2014 2014 with with an an averageaverage average annual annual value value of of 0.73 0.73 (Figure(Figure (Figure5 5). ).5). ItIt It isis is chieflychieflychiefly because becausebecause the thethe RLS RLSRLS in Laohekou inin LaohekouLaohekou city is citycity more isis more developed,more developed,developed, and has andand a better hashas structural aa betterbetter structural statestructural compared statestate withcomparedcompared other with regions, with other other so regions, itregions, has a betterso so it it has has carrying a a better better capacity carrying carrying for capacity capacity socio-economic for for socio socio‐economic‐ development.economic development. development. In addition, In In theaddition,addition, level ofthe the socio-economic level level of of socio socio‐ developmenteconomic‐economic development development in Laohekou in in Laohekou city Laohekou is relatively city city is is lower relatively relatively compared lower lower withcompared compared other regions,withwith other other which regions, regions, has a which smallerwhich has has influence a a smaller smaller on influence RLSinfluence (Figure on on6 RLSb). RLS RLSI (Figure (Figure in Baokang 6b). 6b). RLSI RLSI County in in Baokang Baokang and Zaoyang County County City and and isZaoyangZaoyang lower (Figure City City is is6 lowerb). lower The (Figure (Figure reasons 6b). 6b). are The manifold.The reasons reasons On are are the manifold. manifold. one hand, On On the the the RLS one one in hand, hand, Baokang the the RLS and RLS Zaoyangin in Baokang Baokang is relativelyandand Zaoyang Zaoyang less developed,is is relatively relatively which less less developed, hasdeveloped, a poor carrying which which has capacityhas a a poor poor for carrying carrying socio-economic capacity capacity development. for for socio socio‐economic‐economic On the otherdevelopment.development. hand, socio-economic On On the the other other developmenthand, hand, socio socio‐economic‐economic in these two development development regions, where in in these these heavily two two pollutingregions, regions, where industrieswhere heavily heavily are widelypollutingpolluting distributed, industries industries is are fasterare widely widely than distributed, otherdistributed, regions, is is whichfaster faster than affects than other other the functionalregions, regions, which which and environmental affects affects the the functional functional state of RLSandand environmental greatly environmental (Figure 6state b).state of of RLS RLS greatly greatly (Figure (Figure 6b). 6b).

Figure 6. Spatial distribution pattern of RLSI and SEDI in Xiangyang City. (a) RLSI; (b) SEDI. The red FigureFigure 6. 6.Spatial Spatial distribution distribution pattern pattern of of RLSI RLSI and and SEDI SEDI in in Xiangyang Xiangyang City. City. ( a()a) RLSI; RLSI; ( b(b)) SEDI. SEDI. The The red red dot is the location of the government. dotdot is is the the location location of of the the government. government.

Water 2016, 8, 509 12 of 19

4.2. Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Socio-Economic Development

4.2.1. Temporal Variation Characteristics The calculation results show that SEDI ranging from 0.55 to 0.8 shows an increasing tendency from 2009 to 2014, and the growth rate is 2.5% (Table4 and Figure4b). This illustrates that the level of socio-economic development in Xiangyang City presents a trend of constant growth during 2009–2014. According to the process of inter-annual changes, the level of socio-economic development in Xiangyang City, with 2011 as the dividing point, shows a tendency of first increasing and then decreasing. Only when socio-economic development has reached a certain level, namely that RLS is not sufficient to support the needs of socio-economic development, will the state of RLS be changed. Compared with Figure4a, before 2011, RLSI and SEDI showed an increasing trend. It shows that there has been almost no effect of socio-economic development on the state of RLS during this period. The cause for this phenomenon is closely related to the good natural structure of the water system and a low level of socio-economic development in Xiangyang City before 2011, and the government’s attention on the management and restoration of RLS under the guidance of national policy (mainly the strategy of Interconnected River System Network proposed by the Chinese government). However, after 2011, when the development of socio-economy reached a certain level, it had a greater influence on RLS, and with the decrease of government investment in the management and restoration of RLS, the state of RLS began to decline. The decline in the state of RLS after 2011 is the result of cumulative effects of human activities before 2011. This cumulative effect may be completed in a few years or as long as 10 years, 20 years, or even longer, and depends on whether the cumulative effect has reached the critical threshold that can cause damage to the state of RLS. The determination of the critical threshold needs further study.

Table 4. Calculation results of SEDI from 2009 to 2014 in Xiangyang City.

Administrative Divisions 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Zaoyang City 0.55 0.66 0.77 0.74 0.69 0.72 Yicheng City 0.55 0.58 0.77 0.73 0.70 0.69 Laohekou City 0.65 0.72 0.81 0.79 0.74 0.69 Nanzhang County 0.55 0.66 0.79 0.65 0.70 0.63 Gucheng County 0.60 0.72 0.81 0.77 0.76 0.65 Baokang County 0.61 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.76 0.71 Downtown 0.45 0.52 0.59 0.65 0.76 0.81

From the situation of each partition (Figure7), the level of socio-economic development in Downtown was the lowest in 2009, then showed a constantly growing trend, with a growth rate of 7.3%. The rest of the regions show a tendency of ﬁrst increasing and then decreasing. It can be seen from the change of SEDI in each region that the driving force of socio-economic development mainly originated in the surrounding areas of Xiangyang City before 2011, such as Laohekou, Zaoyang, and Gucheng. However, after 2011, it began to transfer to Downtown, and reached a maximum in 2014. According to the actual situation of rapid increase for the level of socio-economic development from 2009 to 2014 in Downtown, it is estimated that Downtown was designed as the core for social and economic development before 2009 in the urban development planning of Xiangyang City. However, due to the limited data, the socio-economic development level cannot be assessed before 2009 in different regions of Xiangyang. However, the trend mentioned above is consistent with the strategic planning of Xiangyang City implemented in recent years with the purpose of building Downtown as the focus of social and economic development by consulting the relevant departments. Water 2016, 8, 509 13 of 19 Water 2016, 8, 509 13 of 19

Figure 7. TemporalTemporal variation process of SEDI in Xiangyang City.

4.2.2. Spatial Variation CharacteristicsCharacteristics From the view ofof spatialspatial distributiondistribution (Figure(Figure6 b),6b), the the high high value value zone zone of of socio-economic socio‐economic development in Xiangyang Xiangyang City City is is mainly mainly gathered gathered in in the the vicinity vicinity of ofDowntown, Downtown, followed followed by byits itssurrounding surrounding areas areas such such as Baokang, as Baokang, Zaoyang, Zaoyang, Laohekou, Laohekou, Gucheng, Gucheng, Nanzhang, Nanzhang, and Yichang. and Yichang. This is Thismainly is mainlybecause because the socio the socio-economic‐economic development development in Xiangyang in Xiangyang City City transferred transferred rapidly rapidly to Downtown, pushingpushing it it to to be thebe highestthe highest area forarea socio-economic for socio‐economic development. development. Baokang Baokang and Zaoyang and withZaoyang abundant with abundant natural resources natural resources such as iron, such copper, as iron, and copper, phosphate and phosphate ore, have aore, natural have resourcesa natural advantageresources advantage for socio-economic for socio‐ development.economic development. A huge industrial A huge systemindustrial with system the main with pillar the main industries pillar ofindustries equipment of manufacturing,equipment manufacturing, electronic information, electronic information, deep processing deep of processing agricultural of products agricultural has beenproducts formed has inbeen Laohekou, formed Gucheng,in Laohekou, Nanzhang, Gucheng, and Nanzhang, Yicheng. and Yicheng.

4.3. Temporal andand SpatialSpatial VariationVariation CharacteristicsCharacteristics ofof thethe OverallOverall HarmoniousHarmonious DevelopmentDevelopment DegreeDegree

4.3.1. Temporal VariationVariation CharacteristicsCharacteristics The calculation results of the harmoniousharmonious development index (P) of Xiangyang City from 2009 to 2014 are shownshown in Table5 5.. It It can can be be seen seen from from Table Table5 5that that the the overall overall harmonious harmonious development development index in Xiangyang city ranges from 0.5 toto 0.8, implyingimplying big temporaltemporal and spatial differences in thethe overall harmonious development degree in Xiangyang City. From Figures 55,,7 7and and8, 8, the the overall overall harmonious development degree in Xiangyang City except for Downtown can be divided into three stages: (1) Stage I (2009–2010), the value of P increased gradually. The value of RLSI and SEDI were small in this stage, but the change of SEDI with a similar trend with P, was relatively large compared with RLSI.RLSI. This This shows shows that that the smallthe small value ofvalueP is jointlyof P is decided jointly by decided the state by of RLS the andstate socio-economic of RLS and development,socio‐economic and development, its change is and mainly its drivenchange by is themainly development driven by of the socialdevelopment economy; of (2) the Stage social II (2011–2012),economy; (2) the Stage value II (2011–2012), of P reached the the value maximum. of P reached In this the stage, maximum. as the change In this of stage, RLSI wasas the small, change its inﬂuenceof RLSI was on thesmall, overall its influence harmonious on developmentthe overall harmonious index could development almost be ignored. index could However, almost SEDI be increasedignored. However, quickly compared SEDI increased with Stage quickly I. This compared demonstrates with Stage that social I. This economy demonstrates may be that the social main factoreconomy driving may the be increasethe main of factorP; (3) Stagedriving III the (2013–2014), increase theof P value; (3) Stage of P reduced III (2013–2014), gradually. the In value this stage, of P RLSIreduced and gradually. SEDI began In to this decrease, stage, RLSI and the and variation SEDI began extent to of decrease, SEDI was and larger the variation than RLSI. extent This suggests of SEDI thatwas thelarger value than of RLSI.P was This driven suggests by RLS that and the socio-economic value of P was development, driven by RLS but and the contributionsocio‐economic of socio-economicdevelopment, but development the contribution was greater. of socio Inter-annual‐economic variationdevelopment trend was of the greater. overall Inter harmonious‐annual developmentvariation trend index of the is similaroverall toharmonious SEDI in Figures development7 and8, showing index is asimilar trend to of growingSEDI in Figures in Downtown, 7 and 8, ﬁrstshowing increasing a trend and of then growing decreasing in Downtown, in other regions. first increasing Based on and the then analysis decreasing above, when in other the effectregions. of regionalBased on social the analysis and economic above, when development the effect on of RLSregional is relatively social and small, economic the former development is the main on RLS factor is drivingrelatively the small, variation the offormer the overall is the harmonious main factor development driving the degree,variation but of when the overall this effect harmonious reaches a certaindevelopment level, itdegree, will be but driven when by this socio-economic effect reaches developmenta certain level, and it will RLS. be Accordingdriven by socio to the‐economic analysis above,development we believe and RLS. that there According are complex to the analysis internal relationsabove, we between believe thethat socio-economic there are complex system internal and RLS.relations That between is a mutual the feedbacksocio‐economic relationship system with and mutualRLS. That restraint is a mutual and promotion. feedback relationship The relationship with ofmutual the socio-economic restraint and promotion. system and The RLS relationship is like the two of the ends socio of a‐economic balance in system the current and RLS situation is like with the limitedtwo ends resources of a balance and environment. in the current Extreme situation changes with onlimited either resources side (too largeand environment. or too small) willExtreme lead changes on either side (too large or too small) will lead to an imbalance of harmony between the two

Water 2016, 8, 509 14 of 19 Water 2016, 8, 509 14 of 19 to an imbalance of harmony between the two systems. Only by achieving the balance with mutual systems. Only by achieving the balance with mutual adaptation, can they be improved at the adaptation, can they be improved at the same time. same time.

Table 5. Overall harmonious development degree of socio-economy and RLS in Xiangyang City. Table 5. Overall harmonious development degree of socio‐economy and RLS in Xiangyang City.

AdministrativeAdministrative Divisions Divisions 20092009 20102010 20112011 2012 20122013 20132014 2014 Zaoyang CityZaoyang City 0.590.59 0.64 0.64 0.670.67 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.630.62 0.62 Yicheng CityYicheng City 0.590.59 0.60 0.60 0.710.71 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.720.67 0.67 LaohekouLaohekou City City 0.700.70 0.73 0.73 0.780.78 0.77 0.77 0.75 0.750.73 0.73 NanzhangNanzhang County County 0.61 0.61 0.65 0.65 0.710.71 0.66 0.66 0.69 0.690.66 0.66 Gucheng CountyGucheng County 0.600.60 0.64 0.64 0.740.74 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.720.65 0.65 Baokang CountyBaokang County 0.570.57 0.62 0.62 0.650.65 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.670.60 0.60 DowntownDowntown 0.590.59 0.61 0.61 0.650.65 0.70 0.70 0.72 0.720.73 0.73

The overalloverall harmonious harmonious development development degree degree in Laohekou in Laohekou City, where City, RLSIwhere was RLSI larger was compared larger withcompared the other with regions, the other was regions, always was the always biggest the from biggest 2009 tofrom 2014 2009 (Figure to 20148). As(Figure can be8). seen As can from be Figuresseen from5 and Figures7 the overall 5 and 7 harmonious the overall developmentharmonious development index in Downtown index in showed Downtown a rapid showed growth a trend rapid undergrowth the trend driving under of the socio-economic driving of socio development.‐economic development. Taking 2011 as Taking the dividing 2011 as point, the dividing the variation point, tendencythe variation of the tendency overall of harmonious the overall development harmonious indexdevelopment in the rest index of the in regionsthe rest is of consistent the regions with is SEDI,consistent which with shows SEDI, a trendwhich of shows ﬁrst increasing a trend of ﬁrst first and increasing decreasing. first The and change decreasing. of RLSI The is change relatively of smallRLSI is comparing relatively withsmall SEDI comparing in each with region, SEDI indicating in each thatregion, the drivingindicating effect that of the RLSI driving on the effect overall of harmoniousRLSI on the overall degree harmonious is not obvious. degree In conclusion,is not obvious. the In state conclusion, of RLS isthe an state important of RLS is foundation an important for socio-economicfoundation for socio development,‐economic anddevelopment, the latter and is the the main latter factor is the drivingmain factor the changedriving ofthe the change overall of harmoniousthe overall harmonious development development degree in Xiangyang degree in City.Xiangyang City.

FigureFigure 8. Temporal 8. Temporal variation variation process process of the of the overall overall harmonious harmonious development development degree degree in in Xiangyang Xiangyang City. City.

4.3.2. Spatial Variation CharacteristicsCharacteristics Taking 20092009 andand 20142014 asas examples,examples, thethe spatialspatial distributiondistribution patternspatterns of thethe overalloverall harmoniousharmonious degree in XiangyangXiangyang city werewere analyzedanalyzed (Figure(Figure9 9).). In In 2009, 2009, the the overall overall harmonious harmonious development development degree inin Laohekou Laohekou was was the maximum,the maximum, followed followed by Gucheng by Gucheng and Nanzhang, and Nanzhang, and that of and Downtown, that of Baokang,Downtown, Gucheng, Baokang, and Gucheng, Zaoyang and were Zaoyang the minimum. were the According minimum. to According Table1, Laohekou to Table City 1, Laohekou belongs toCity Type belongs II of to harmonious Type II of harmonious development development of socio-economy of socio and‐economy RLS, and and other RLS, regionsand other belong regions to Typebelong IV. to By Type 2014, IV. the By level 2014, of overall the level harmonious of overall development harmonious in development each region was in each improved region except was forimproved Gucheng except County, for Gucheng and shows County, a spatial and shows pattern a inspatial which pattern the overall in which harmonious the overall development harmonious degreedevelopment in Laohekou degree and in DowentownLaohekou and were Dowentown maximum, were followed maximum, by Nanzhang followed and by Yicheng, Nanzhang and thatand ofYicheng, Gucheng, and Baokang, that of Gucheng, and Zaoyang Baokang, were and minimum. Zaoyang Among were minimum. them, Laohekou Among City them, belongs Laohekou to Type City II; Downtown,belongs to Type Zaoyang, II; Downtown, and Baokang Zaoyang, belong and to TypeBaokang III; Nanzhang,belong to Type Yichang, III; Nanzhang, and Gucheng Yichang, belong and to TypeGucheng IV. The belong following to Type conclusions IV. The following can be obtained conclusions that socialcan be economy obtained is that the developmentsocial economy focus is the of Laohekoudevelopment City focus while of ensuringLaohekou RLS City is while in good ensuring condition; RLS is Downtown, in good condition; Zaoyang, Downtown, and Baokang Zaoyang, have aand higher Baokang level have of socio-economic a higher level development of socio‐economic where development the protection where of the the RLS protection state is theof the key RLS for state is the key for further efforts; balanced development of the social economy and protection of RLS should be focused in Nanzhang, Yicheng, and Gucheng.

Water 2016, 8, 509 15 of 19 further efforts; balanced development of the social economy and protection of RLS should be focused inWater Nanzhang, 2016, 8, 509 Yicheng, and Gucheng. 15 of 19

FigureFigure 9.9.Spatial Spatial distribution distribution pattern pattern of of the the overall overall harmonious harmonious development development index index in Xiangyang in Xiangyang City duringCity during 2009~2014. 2009~2014. (a) 2009; (a) 2009; (b) 2010; (b) 2010; (c) 2011; (c) 2011; (d) 2012; (d) 2012; (e) 2013; (e) 2013; (f) 2014. (f) 2014.

4.4.4.4. HarmonyHarmony RegulationRegulation SchemesSchemes According to the experience of experts, when the value of the overall harmonious development According to the experience of experts, when the value of the overall harmonious development index of socio‐economy and RLS reaches 0.8, it can meet the strategic needs of the national index of socio-economy and RLS reaches 0.8, it can meet the strategic needs of the national construction construction of the Ecological Civilization [28–31]. Otherwise, harmony equilibrium judgement is of the Ecological Civilization [28–31]. Otherwise, harmony equilibrium judgement is needed based needed based on the analysis of driving factors and the harmony equilibrium regulation model [32]. on the analysis of driving factors and the harmony equilibrium regulation model [32]. According to According to Table 3, all the regions in Xiangyang City do not meet the requirements under the Table3, all the regions in Xiangyang City do not meet the requirements under the status quo. Therefore, status quo. Therefore, the main driving factors influencing the overall harmonious degree in the main driving factors inﬂuencing the overall harmonious degree in Xiangyang City were analyzed Xiangyang City were analyzed first, and then the goal of harmony equilibrium was set to 0.8 for the ﬁrst, and then the goal of harmony equilibrium was set to 0.8 for the harmonious regulation in harmonious regulation in each region. each region.

4.4.1. Analysis of Main Driving Factors The major factors affecting the harmonious development degree of socio‐economy and RLS were obtained using the method of reverse index analysis based on five types of performance indicators, i.e., Economic subsystem, Social subsystem, Structural subsystem, Functional subsystem, and Environmental subsystem. The main driving factors for each region are listed in Table 6.

Water 2016, 8, 509 16 of 19

4.4.1. Analysis of Main Driving Factors The major factors affecting the harmonious development degree of socio-economy and RLS were obtained using the method of reverse index analysis based on ﬁve types of performance indicators, i.e., Economic subsystem, Social subsystem, Structural subsystem, Functional subsystem, and Environmental subsystem. The main driving factors for each region are listed in Table6.

Table 6. Main driving factors for each region in Xiangyang city.

Administrative Divisions Main Driving Factors Zaoyang City Water quality standard river length ratio Yicheng City Surface water supply, Reservoir regulation ability, Water quality standard river length ratio Laohekou City Surface water supply, Water consumption per capita, Riverbank stability Nanzhang County Longitudinal connectivity, Surface water supply, Reservoir regulation ability Longitudinal connectivity, Surface water supply, Reservoir regulation ability, Water Gucheng County consumption per capita, Farmland average per Irrigation water consumption Water surface rate, Area and length ratio of backbone rivers, Longitudinal connectivity, Baokang County Surface water supply, Reservoir regulation ability Area and length ratio of backbone rivers, River network development coefﬁcient, Downtown Longitudinal connectivity, Water consumption per capita, Farmland average per Irrigation water consumption, Sewage treatment rate

4.4.2. Optimization of Harmonious Regulation Schemes Indexes with small values of harmony degree were selected as the focus of regulation using the optimal selection method of the harmony actions set. Taking downtown as an example, indexes with lower harmony degree in 2014 mainly include: Area and length ratio of backbone rivers (X43, 0.69), River network development coefficient (X44, 0.03), Longitudinal connectivity (X46, 0.5), Water consumption per capita (X11, 0.38), Farmland average per Irrigation water consumption (X13, 0.75), Sewage treatment rate (X15, 0.44). Indexes of Area and length ratio of backbone rivers, and River network development coefficient belong to the natural river network features, which are not possible for improvement in a short time. They could not be considered temporarily. According to the current level of science and technology, Farmland average per Irrigation water consumption is very difficult to improve in Xiangyang City, so it was ignored in this regulation. Therefore, three indexes were selected: Longitudinal connectivity, Water consumption per capita, and Sewage treatment rate. According to the principle of harmony equilibrium and the regulation flow of Figure3, harmonious regulation in Downtown was carried out [32]. The specific process is shown in Table7.

Table 7. Harmony regulation results of socio economy and RLS in Downtown.

X47 X11 X15 P X47 X11 X15 P X47 X11 X15 P 0.60 0.78 0.60 0.79 0.60 0.79 0.45 0.70 0.790.45 0.70 0.790.45 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.60 0.79 0.60 0.79 0.60 0.79 0.60 0.50 0.70 0.790.70 0.50 0.70 0.790.80 0.50 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.60 0.79 0.60 0.79 0.60 0.80 0.55 0.70 0.790.55 0.70 0.800.55 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80

It can be seen from Table7 that the regulation schemes which meet the requirements of harmony equilibrium include: scheme one, with X47 = 0.60,X11 = 0.55, and X15 = 0.80; scheme two, with X47 = 0.70,X11 = 0.45, and X15 = 0.80; scheme three, with X47 = 0.70,X11 = 0.50, and X15 = 0.80; scheme four, with X47 = 0.70, X11 = 0.55, and X15 = 0.70; scheme ﬁve, with X47 = 0.70, X11 = 0.55, and X15 = 0.80; scheme six, with X47 = 0.80, X11 = 0.45, and X15 = 0.70; scheme seven, with X47 = 0.80, Water 2016, 8, 509 17 of 19

X11 = 0.45, and X15 = 0.80; scheme eight, with X47 = 0.80, X11 = 0.50, and X15 = 0.70; scheme nine, with X47 = 0.80, X11 = 0.50, and X15 = 0.80; scheme ten, with X47 = 0.80, X11 = 0.55, and X15 = 0.60; scheme eleven, with X47 = 0.80, X11 = 0.55, and X15 = 0.70; scheme twelve, with X47 = 0.80, X11 = 0.55, and X15 = 0.80. Harmony regulation methods in other regions are similar to Downtown. Due to the limited space, they will not be discussed here.

5. Conclusions The impact of human activities on RLS is becoming more and more serious with the accelerating progress of socio-economy development. Issues of water pollution and river fragmentation caused by irrational exploitation and utilization lead to the structural damage of RLS, and the function of RLS cannot be carried out effectively. How to coordinate the relationship between socio-economy and RLS is an urgent task faced by human beings. In this paper, Xiangyang City was selected as an example to research the harmonious development degree between socio-economy and RLS based on the method of harmony theory, Harmonious regulation schemes were proposed from the perspective of harmony equilibrium. Our ﬁndings can be summarized as follows:

1. The state of RLS in Xiangyang City shows a spatial distribution pattern with the Han River as the central axis decreases on both its sides. The Han River system, the main river system within Xiangyang City, is the major support of socio-economic development in Xiangyang City. The structural and functional state of the river systems had been changed due to human activities. In spite of this, the micro layout of the river systems formed under the action of natural evolution has not changed greatly in Xiangyang city. Therefore, the spatial distribution pattern of river systems in Xiangyang City still takes the Han River as the center. This is consistent with the natural distribution law of river systems. 2. When the inﬂuence of socio-economic development on the state of RLS is small, the former is the main factor driving the variation of degree of the overall regional harmonious development. However, when the inﬂuence is big, socio-economic development and RLS both drive the variation of degree of regional overall harmonious development. The driving force of socio-economic development in Xiangyang City mainly originated in the surrounding areas such as Laohekou, Zaoyang, and Gucheng before 2011. However, after 2011, it shifted towards Downtown, and reached the maximum in 2014. Socio-economic development is the main driving factor for the change of the overall harmonious degree. 3. The overall harmonious development degree is higher in Downtown and Laohekou City. Downtown is mainly driven by socio-economic development, so the state of RLS should be the focus for further construction. Laohekou is mainly driven by the state of RLS, and has a great potential for socio-economic development which should be the focus for further construction. The level of socio-economic development in Zaoyang and Baokang is high, and RLS should be the focus for further construction. Coordinate development of socio-economy and RLS should be considered in Nanzhang, Gucheng, and Yicheng. 4. The factors affecting the overall harmonious degree in Xiangyang City mainly include: river length, standard ratio of water quality, water consumption per capita, reservoir regulation capability, Mu of farmland irrigation, water consumption, and sewage treatment rate. These indexes should be treated as the main regulation objectives for harmonious development between socio-economy and RLS in Xiangyang City.

Acknowledgments: This research is supported by the Major Program of National Social Science Fund of China (No. 12&ZD215), the Major Program of Water Ecological Civilization Construction of Ministry of Water Resources (No. 2014-1), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51279183) and Program for Innovative Research Team (in Science and Technology) in University of Henan Province (No. 13IRTSTHN030). Additionally, the researchers would like to extend their thanks to the National Basic Research Program of China (2015CB452701), the Chinese National Natural Science Foundation (No. 51522907, No. 51279208) and the Research Fund of the State Water 2016, 8, 509 18 of 19

Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (No. 2016ZY02). Author Contributions: Qiting Zuo conceived and designed the study; Zengliang Luo performed the calculation and wrote the first draft of the paper; Xiangyi Ding revised the paper and completed the submission. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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