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John McCain Seen as Most Influential Republican and as Leading Voice of the Party Gingrich, Limbaugh, Romney, , Palin and Giuliani all seen as influential by many people

New York, N.Y. — January 7, 2010 — Unlike many other democracies, including those with parliamentary governments, the United States does not have a formal leader of the opposition. However, a new Harris Poll finds that Senator John McCain, the losing Republican presidential candidate in 2008, is most widely perceived as an influential Republican leader and as a leading voice of the GOP. Other Republican leaders who are viewed by many people as influential and as leading voices in the party include former House Speaker , radio host , former Massachusetts Governor , former Arkansas Governor , McCain’s vice presidential running mate and former governor of Alaska , and former New York Mayor . These six Republicans, all of whom would probably like to be the next Republican presidential candidate, are seen as about as influential as each other. But more people see Palin and Limbaugh as leading voices of the party, and Palin scores more highly among Republicans. These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,276 adults surveyed online between December 7 and 14, 2009 by Harris Interactive. One interesting finding is that the differences between Republicans, Democrats and Independents as to who are influential and who are leading voices of the party are generally not large. However, Democrats are somewhat more likely to see McCain as a leading voice for the party, and Republicans are somewhat more likely to believe that Palin is influential, and is a leading voice. The main findings are: 64% of all adults view McCain as influential, including 27% who think he has great influence. Those numbers are higher than for other leading Republicans – Limbaugh (50% and 23%), Gingrich (50% and 18%), Romney (48% and 13%), Huckabee (47% and 13%), Palin (47% and 18%) or Giuliani (45% and 12%). Other Republican leaders who are seen as influential by more than one-third of all adults include personality Bill O’Reilly (43% and 14%), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (41% and 13%), Fox News personality (41% and 15%), House Minority Leader (37% and 12%), Fox News personality Sean (37% and 12%), and former TV personality Lou Dobbs (34% and 8%). Palin (24%) is mentioned more often than any other Republican apart from McCain (47%) as a leading voice in the Republican Party. Others mentioned by more than 10% are Limbaugh (21%), Huckabee (13%), Gingrich (12%), Romney (11%), and McConnell (11%). Palin is more likely to be seen as influential by Republicans (59%) than by Democrats (39%),

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So what? Many of the Republican leaders mentioned as influential in this Harris Poll are potential presidential candidates in 2010. Apart from John McCain, who some people think would be too old to be the Republican nominee, there is clearly no front-runner but, rather, a largish group of possible candidates, none of whom stands out. However, among Republicans Sarah Palin does have a lead over all the other Republicans, apart from McCain, as a leading voice for the party.

TABLE 1 INFLUENTIAL LEADERS ON THE REPUBLICAN PARTY “How much influence do you believe each of the following has on the direction of the Republican Party?” Base: All Adults Totals A great Not that No NOT Some Not at deal of much influence INFLUENCE MUCH influence all sure influence influence at all (NET) INFLUENCE (NET) Sen. John McCain % 27 37 15 5 17 64 19 Newt Gingrich % 18 32 19 8 23 50 27 Rush Limbaugh % 23 26 16 13 21 50 29 Mitt Romney % 13 35 19 7 26 48 26 Mike Huckabee % 13 34 21 8 25 47 28 Sarah Palin % 18 28 21 15 17 47 36 Rudy Giuliani % 12 33 24 8 22 45 32 Bill O’Reilly % 14 29 20 13 25 43 33 Sen. Mitch McConnell % 13 28 12 5 41 41 17 Glenn Beck % 15 26 17 11 31 41 28 Rep. John Boehner % 12 26 15 5 43 37 20 Sean Hannity % 12 25 18 11 34 37 29 Lou Dobbs % 8 26 22 12 32 34 35 Michael Steele % 9 19 18 9 45 28 27 Gov. Tim Pawlenty % 5 23 18 7 47 28 25 Rep. Eric Cantor % 5 18 20 7 50 23 27 Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

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TABLE 2 INFLUENTIAL LEADERS ON THE REPUBLICAN PARTY – BY PARTY “How much influence do you believe each of the following has on the direction of the Republican Party?” Summary of ‘Some influence/Great deal of influence’ Base: All Adults INFLUENCE By Party (NET) Republican Democrat Independent % % % % Sen. John McCain 64 68 67 65 Newt Gingrich 50 57 49 53 Rush Limbaugh 50 56 48 53 Mitt Romney 48 60 45 48 Mike Huckabee 47 54 45 48 Sarah Palin 47 59 39 48 Rudy Giuliani 45 56 43 45 Bill O’Reilly 43 51 42 41 Sen. Mitch McConnell 41 48 37 45 Glenn Beck 41 50 38 41 Rep. John Boehner 37 42 34 42 Sean Hannity 37 46 33 38 Lou Dobbs 34 33 35 37 Michael Steele 28 31 24 33 Gov. Tim Pawlenty 28 32 26 31 Rep. Eric Cantor 23 25 24 22

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TABLE 3 LEADING VOICES OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY "Of these, which two are the leading voices of the Republican Party?” Base: All Adults By Party Total Republican Democrat Independent % % % % Sen. John McCain 47 42 54 42 Sarah Palin 24 28 23 22 Rush Limbaugh 21 21 24 20 Mike Huckabee 13 14 13 13 Newt Gingrich 12 9 12 14 Mitt Romney 11 14 10 12 Sen. Mitch McConnell 11 11 12 11 Rep. John Boehner 10 10 9 13 Glenn Beck 10 10 8 11 Rudy Giuliani 10 9 9 9 Bill O’Reilly 8 8 7 9 Michael Steele 8 10 5 8 Lou Dobbs 3 1 4 3 Sean Hannity 3 4 2 3 Gov. Tim Pawlenty 3 3 3 3 Rep. Eric Cantor 2 1 3 3 Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

Methodology This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States December 7 and 14, 2009 among 2,276 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal. Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

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The Harris Poll® #2, January 7, 2010 By Humphrey Taylor, Chairman, The Harris Poll, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive Harris Interactive is one of the world’s leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what’s next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

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