REPORT NO 70024617/ASR A30 TO LINK APPRAISAL SPECIFICATION REPORT

NOVEMBER 2016

A30 TO ST AUSTELL LINK APPRAISAL SPECIFICATION REPORT

Final Draft

Project no: 70024617 Date: November 2016

– WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff 11 High Cross, , TR1 2AJ

Tel: 01872 245860 www.wsp-pb.com

QUALITY MANAGEMENT

ISSUE/REVISION FIRST ISSUE REVISION 1 REVISION 2 REVISION 3

Final Draft including Remarks Internal Draft Final Draft CORMAC comment

Date 19 October 2016 28/10/2016 03/11/16

Prepared by Niall Parkinson Rob Hayward Rob Hayward

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Checked by Rob Hayward Thea Wattam Thea Wattam

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Authorised by Rob Hayward Thea Wattam Ian Beavis

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Project number 70024617 70024617 70024617

Report number 1 1 1

File reference http://my.hdle.it/50230786

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PRODUCTION TEAM

CLIENT

Team Leader – Transport Rick Clayton Planning and Feasibility

WSP | PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF

Senior Transportation Planner Rob Hayward

Principal Transportation Planner Thea Wattam

Technical Director Ian Beavis

Environmental Consultant Claire Beard

SUBCONSULTANTS

Modelling Project Manager – Joanna Isaac PTV

A30 to St Austell Link – Appraisal Specification Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff CORMAC Project No 70024617 November 2016 Confidential 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION ...... 6

1.1 BACKGROUND ...... 6

1.2 CURRENT PROJECT STAGE ...... 6

1.3 PURPOSE OF THE APPRAISAL SPECIFICATION REPORT ...... 8

1.4 OVERALL PROJECT PROGRAMME...... 8

1.5 SCHEME OBJECTIVES ...... 9

1.6 STAKEHOLDERS ...... 10

1.7 EQUALITY, DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION ...... 10

2 TRANSPORT MODELLING...... 11

2.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA...... 11

2.2 SCALE OF IMPACT ...... 13

2.3 TRAFFIC DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH...... 13

2.4 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY ...... 21

2.5 SUMMARY OF THE RELEVANT AREA OF THE COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY ...... 30

2.6 WORK PROGRAMME...... 30

2.7 RISKS ...... 30

2.8 CHANGE LOG ...... 30

2.9 REFERENCES ...... 30

3 ECONOMY ...... 32

3.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA...... 32

3.2 TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS ...... 32

3.3 SCALE OF IMPACT ...... 32

3.4 TRAFFIC DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH...... 32

3.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY ...... 32

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3.6 SUMMARY OF THE RELEVANT AREA OF THE COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY ...... 47

3.7 WORK PROGRAMME...... 47

3.8 RISKS ...... 47

3.9 CHANGE LOG ...... 47

3.10 REFERENCES ...... 48

4 OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT ...... 49

4.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA...... 49

4.2 TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS ...... 49

4.3 SCALE OF IMPACT ...... 49

4.4 TRAFFIC DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH...... 49

4.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY ...... 49

4.6 SUMMARY OF THE RELEVANT AREA OF THE COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY ...... 50

4.7 WORK PROGRAMME...... 50

4.8 RISKS ...... 50

4.9 CHANGE LOG ...... 50

4.10 REFERENCES ...... 50

5 ENVIRONMENT ...... 51

5.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA...... 51

5.2 TOPIC RELATED CONSTRAINTS...... 51

5.3 SCALE OF IMPACT ...... 51

5.4 TRAFFIC DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH...... 51

5.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY ...... 52

5.6 SUMMARY OF RELEVANT AREAS OF COMMUNICATION STRATEGY ...... 55

5.7 WORK PROGRAMME...... 55

5.8 RISKS ...... 56

5.9 CHANGE LOG ...... 56

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5.10 REFERENCES ...... 56

6 SOCIAL IMPACTS ...... 57

6.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA...... 57

6.2 TOPIC RELATED CONSTRAINTS...... 57

6.3 SCALE OF IMPACT ...... 57

6.4 TRAFFIC DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH...... 57

6.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY ...... 57

6.6 SUMMARY OF THE RELEVANT AREAS OF THE COMMUNICATION STRATEGY ...... 59

6.7 WORK PROGRAMME...... 59

6.8 RISKS ...... 59

6.9 CHANGE LOG ...... 60

6.10 REFERENCES ...... 60

7 PUBLIC ACCOUNTS – COST TO BROAD TRANSPORT BUDGET ...... 61

7.1 LEVEL OF DESIGN FEEDING INTO COSTS...... 62

7.2 METHODOLOGY ...... 62

7.3 INVESTMENT COSTS...... 62

7.4 OPERATING COSTS ...... 63

7.5 OPERATING, MAINTENANCE AND RENEWAL COSTS ...... 63

7.6 TREATMENT OF RISK...... 63

7.7 CALCULATION OF INDIRECT TAX REVENUES ...... 63

7.8 COMMUNICATION STRATEGY ...... 63

7.9 WORK PROGRAMME...... 63

7.10 RISKS ...... 64

TABLES

TABLE 1-1 PROJECT TIMESCALES...... 8 TABLE 2-1 SUITABLE MODELS ...... 12

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TABLE 2-2 RSI SURVEY LOCATIONS AND DATES ...... 13 TABLE 2-3 A30 RSI SURVEYS ...... 13 TABLE 2-4 LOCATIONS OF AUTOMATIC TRAFFIC COUNTS (ATCS)...... 15 TABLE 2-5 MCC LOCATIONS AND DA TE UNDERTAKEN...... 17 TABLE 2-6 ANPR LOCATIONS ...... 19 TABLE 2-7 MODEL USER CLASSES ...... 23 TABLE 2-8 MODEL TIME PERIODS ...... 24 TABLE 2-9 LINK FLOW VALIDATION CRITERIA AND ACCEPTABILITY GUIDELINES ...... 26 TABLE 2-10 CONVERGENCE ACCEP TABILITY VALUES ...... 27 TABLE 2-11 EXAMPLE OF UNCERTAINTY LOG...... 27 TABLE 2-12 KEY FOR PROBABILITY INPUT ...... 28 TABLE 2-13 TEMPRO USER CLASS EQUIVALENCE...... 29 TABLE 2-14 MODEL USER CLASS EQUIVALENCE ...... 29 TABLE 2-15 TRANSPORT MODELLING CHANGE LOG ...... 30 TABLE 3-1 IMD SCORES ...... 43 TABLE 3-2 IMD INCOME SCORES ...... 44 TABLE 3-3 IMD ADULT SKILLS DOMAIN SCORES ...... 44 TABLE 3-4 IMD “HARD PRESSED LIVING” ...... 45 TABLE 3-5 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT CHANGE LOG ...... 47 TABLE 4-1 OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT CHANGE LOG ...... 50 TABLE 5-1 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT CHANGE LOG ...... 56 TABLE 6-1 DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS CHANGE LOG ...... 60

FIGURES

FIGURE 1-1 ST AUSTELL TO A30 LINK STUDY AREA ...... 7 FIGURE 2-1 ST AUSTELL RSI LOCATION MAP...... 14 FIGURE 2-2 LOCATIONS OF ATCS ...... 16 FIGURE 2-3 LOCATION MAP FOR MANUAL CLASSIFIED COUNTS (MCC) ...... 18 FIGURE 2-4 JOURNEY TIME ROUTES...... 20 FIGURE 2-5 SIMULATION AREA ...... 22 FIGURE 2-6 STUDY AREA: FULLY MODELLED AREA...... 22 FIGURE 2-7 EXTERNAL MODEL AREA ...... 23 FIGURE 3-1 WIDER ECONOMIC IMPACTS PROCESS ...... 34 FIGURE 3-2 MATRIX OF WIDER IMPACTS METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH...... 37

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APPENDICES

A P P E N D I X A OUTLINE PROGRAMME A P P E N D I X B A30 TO ST AUSTELL LINK ROAD – RESIDENTS NEWSLETTER NOVEMBER 2016 A P P E N D I X C APPRAISAL SPECIFICATION SUMMARY TABLE

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1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND

1.1.1 There has been a long held aspiration by Council to create a strategic link road between St Austell and the A30, as St Austell is Cornwall’s largest town and is not currently served by a high-quality route from the A30. The current route is the A391, which is of variable standard, and passes through a number of villages between St. Austell and the A30. The existing A391 route linking the A30 to St. Austell is shown in Figure 1.1.

1.1.2 Poor connectivity continues to be seen as the major block to economic growth of the St Austell area. With the A391 Carluddon road improvement recently completed, improvements to the A30 at Temple, further investment in the Enterprise Zone at the Aerohub and regeneration improvements in the St Austell and the China Clay Area, there is likely to be increased pressure on the existing routes, renewing focus on this strategic route.

1.2 CURRENT PROJECT STAGE

1.2.1 A Project Initiation Document (PID) was produced by Cormac Solutions in September 2015 to provide project governance, ensure that the correct technical standards are adhered to, that budgets and deadlines are followed and that stakeholder engagement is undertaken. This PID clearly outlines the desired objectives of the scheme.

1.2.2 Before publicising and undertaking engagement sessions, Cormac Solutions developed an Options Appraisal Report (OAR)1 which was subsequently submitted to the Department for Transport and for comment. The OAR identifies a number of possible improvement options, summarises the initial sifting assessments and identifies two road improvement schemes that were considered to most fully meet the scheme objectives set out in the PID – one option to bypass Roche (to the east of Roche) and one option to bypass Bugle (to the west of Bugle). These two schemes were subject to public and stakeholder consultation (including Natural England and the Environment Agency) in early summer 2016.

1.2.3 The consultation process and subsequent technical investigations highlighted that the original route to the east of Bugle would no longer be acceptable due to new environmental designations coming into force in 2016/17 (mid-Cornwall Sites of Special Scientific Interest), alongside increased engineering difficulties and costs. Therefore an alternative route to the west of Bugle via the former Goonbarrow clay pit is being considered with further design work and environmental investigations now underway. A revised OAR is being prepared to reflect this position.

1 A30 to St Austell Link Road - Options Appraisal Report, CORMAC, December 2015.

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Figure 1-1 St Austell to A30 Link Area

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1.2.4 An Option Testing and Appraisal Report is being produced that will build on the original OAR sifting work in light of more detailed technical and environmental work to identify the best performing option that will form the basis of a preferred route recommendation to Cornwall Council. As of writing there are two different route options under consideration; both schemes are single carriageway offline routes bypassing Roche or Bugle. In addition a number of supporting measures including complementary road links and traffic management measures in the village centres will be required to achieve the scheme objectives. The proposals also include a CERC access link road near St Dennis. The preferred route and supporting measures will be subject to further assessment with the aim to submit an Outline Business Case (OBC) to DfT by March 2017.

1.2.5 Details of the options under consideration and the supporting measures can be found in Appendix B, the A30 to St Austell Link Road Newsletter.

1.3 PURPOSE OF THE APPRAISAL SPECIFICATION REPORT

1.3.1 This Appraisal Specification Report (ASR) follows guidance set out in WebTag2 The proposed methodology sets out to appraise the economic, environmental and social impacts of the scheme. Work required to assess the scheme in detail is set out enabling the project to identify and appraise the preferred option. This includes work to provide information for any subsequent Public Consultations, and information for the Outline Business Case to be submitted by March 2017.

1.3.2 Indications of risk in the scheme are also detailed within this ASR and will be used to identify constraints and inform the development of the proposed scheme. Identified risks will benefit from increased visibility, allowing stakeholders to gain greater understanding of potential impacts on timescales, quality and cost.

1.4 OVERALL PROJECT PROGRAMME

1.4.1 Cornwall Council has secured £1.5m from Central Government to investigate and develop a scheme for a new link road between the A30 and St Austell. It is envisaged that if scheme funding is obtained, construction would start in December 2019.

1.4.2 An outline programme of the assessment work required to identify a preferred option and deliver an Outline Business Case in March 2017 is included in Appendix A.

1.4.3 Detailed design, Planning and Construction of the link road will require funding from Central Government. The indicative forward programme is shown below in Table 1-1.

Table 1-1 Project Timescales.

DESCRIPTION DEADLINE

Public Consultation May/June 2016

Identification and Development of Preferred Option Autumn 2016

2 Transport Analysis Guidance: The Transport Appraisal Process, DfT, January 2016.

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DESCRIPTION DEADLINE

Outline Business Case March 2017

Planning and Detailed Design October 2018

Tender Awarded September 2019

Construction Commissioning and Handover December 2019

Closeout December 2022

1.5 SCHEME OBJECTIVES

1.5.1 The Council’s overarching aims for the mid-Cornwall area are to:

 Create a better link between two of Cornwall’s largest towns – St Austell and Newquay, the airport and Aerohub Enterprise Zone  Make it easier to get to Cornwall’s new, large employment sites. Therefore supporting the expanding employment sites Victoria Business Park, Indian Queens Industrial Estate and the Aerohub Enterprise Zone  Improve competiveness of St Austell as a location to do business via new employment space or interest in land that can be developed into employment space; creating 600 and 500 jobs respectively.  Address congestion and support housing growth, including the delivery West Carglaze eco- community; creating 1,500 new homes and 500 jobs. (by providing 15-18,000sqm of employment spaces)  Support the regeneration of Roche and Bugle; by addressing traffic issues and there will be better opportunities for businesses.

1.5.2 To achieve these overarching aims the identified scheme objectives are to:

 Reduce journey times and improve journey reliability between St Austell and A30  Reduce the impact of traffic congestion on local communities and businesses  Improve the safety of road users, pedestrians and cyclists

1.5.3 These objectives are aligned with the key policies identified within Cornwall Council’s regional transport policies, and are objectives of Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Strategic Economic Plan.

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1.6 STAKEHOLDERS

1.6.1 This ASR has been produced following consultation with Cornwall Council and CORMAC Highways and Environment.

1.6.2 As part of the Project Initiation Document (PID) produced by CORMAC, a communications strategy was produced which outlines how the “Project Manager will manage and maintain a database of affected landowners, stakeholders and groups of interest”.

1.6.3 Cornwall Council’s Communication Team will ensure that all invested parties are informed and have access to discussion with an appointed communication consultant. It is a priority of Cornwall Council to ensure that the identified solutions meet the needs and objectives stakeholders.

1.6.4 Stakeholders to be consulted as scheme options are developed further include;

 Roche Parish Council  Parish Council;  Parish Council;  St Dennis parish council  St Austell and Clay Country Community Network Area representatives  Highways England (HE);  Statutory bodies and other internal groups;  Business organisations and bodies in Cornwall ;  Landowners;  Transport providers and organisations; and  Emergency services 1.7 EQUALITY, DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION

1.7.1 Equality, diversity and inclusion (EDI) processes have been introduced under the Equality Act 2010. Public bodies are required to ensure that new schemes and projects are max imised for all users.

1.7.2 The Equality, Diversity and Inclusion tool (EDIT) developed by Mott MacDonald assesses the relevance of potential EDIT issues to individual schemes. This process is currently used by Highways England, and would provide a good basis point to assess EDI.

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2 TRANSPORT MODELLING 2.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA

2.1.1 The A30 to St Austell Link Road Options Appraisal Report (OAR) sets out the existing conditions regarding the limitations of the A391/B3274 corridor and the extent of the current trans port problems experienced. Needs have been established for the regeneration of the area which is currently impeded by transport infrastructure in the vicinity.

2.1.2 More localised concerns have been raised through the Neighbourhood Plan process over the level of traffic routing through Roche, particularly abnormal loads, and the impact of this along with future housing growth. Resident’s concerns are around congestion, air quality and the pedestrian environment for vulnerable users.

2.1.3 There are limited improvements that can be made to the existing A391 through the villages of Bugle and Stenalees or to the B3274 through Roche.

2.1.4 In particular both of the existing routes have their drawbacks. The A391 road which travels through Bugle is the main road connecting St Austell with the A30. Consequently, the village suffers from a relatively high volume of traffic and HGVs that contributes to air and noise pollution. The route also suffers from a poor collision history due to the high traffic volumes and number of potential conflict points within the village (accesses and junctions).

2.1.5 The existing route through Roche is the B3274 which has many narrow sections along its length, coupled with sharp bends and steep gradients. Also, the B3274 is a heavily trafficked road being used not only by cars but also HGVs generated by the China Clay and secondary aggregate industries in the area. As a result, this situation has led to high levels of air and noise pollution and some 182 accidents in and along the road in the last five year period.

2.1.6 By identifying a suitable strategic link between the A30 and St Austell it would be possible to improve safety, improve journey time reliability and reduce delays, minimise impacts of air quality and noise in the local villages and bring benefits for the local economy.

2.1.7 A large body of work exists identifying the current social and economic issues in the St Austell, and China Clay Area, supported by an extensive evidence base. This evidence base includes:

CLAY COUNTRY LOCAL ACTION 2008 - RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME FOR ENGLAND, LOCAL ACTION 2007-2013.

2.1.8 Prepared by Restormel Borough Council to provide a strategy to help the area prepare for the scale of change required in relation to the re-structuring of the China Clay industry, while recognising that the unique heritage and landscape of the area could provide new opportunities for local businesses and communities.

ECO BOS - ST. AUSTELL AND CLAY AREA ECO-COMMUNITIES - ECONOMIC MASTERPLAN STUDY FEBRUARY 2011

2.1.9 Final Report by Roger Tym & Partners on behalf of Eco Bos, to provide a framework for development of 700 hectares of land released in the Clay Country in 2006 as part of restructuring of Imerys clay mining business, which also led the loss of several hundreds of jobs .

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ST AUSTELL, ST BLAZEY AND CHINA CLAY AREA REGENERATION PLAN - OCT 2012

2.1.10 St Austell, St Blazey and China Clay Area Regeneration Plan Guidelines for Transformational Development Projects prepared by Cornwall Council. This document was developed on the basis of key messages emerging from an extensive evidence base.

CORNWALL LOCAL PLAN PLACE-BASED TOPIC PAPER: ST AUSTELL COMMUNITY NETWORK AREA 2013

2.1.11 A summary of the key issues for the Community Network Area brought together to inform the Cornwall Local Plan.

CHINA CLAY COMMUNITY NETWORK – PROFILE ASSESSMENT 2015

2.1.12 A summary of the key issues for the Community Network Area brought together to inform the Cornwall Local Plan.

FUTURE CONDITIONS

2.1.13 The Cornwall Local Plan sets out demand for housing and allocations for future development across Cornwall. The Local Plan has identified a key target of providing 2900 new dwellings in St Austell and 1800 within The China Clay Area by 2030 with potential for another 1200 dwellings through “Eco-communities” at West Carclaze and Par Docks. This level of development will exacerbate conditions experienced on the A391 and B3274 corridor which is the key strategic route between St Austell and the A30. The increased unreliability of the route will reduce connectivity, confidence for inward investment in the region and add to the sense of peripherality experienced in Cornwall.

TRAFFIC MODELS

2.1.14 Two traffic models currently exist within the identified detailed study area; these models are shown below.

Table 2-1 Suitable Models MODEL BASE YEAR TIME PERIODS USER CLASSES 2 User Classes St Austell Town Model 2012 AM, PM Light vehicles, HGVs Cornwall Strategic Model 2015 AM, PM 2 User Classes Light vehicles, HGVs

TRAFFIC DATA

2.1.15 WebTAG states that traffic data used to develop traffic models should not usually be older than 6 years. The existing models are based on data considered to be too old for the purposes of this scheme. A new transport model using VISUM is proposed using new data collected specifically for the purposes of this transport model.

TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS

2.1.16 Constraints are likely to comprise:

 Quality of the survey data which was undertaken by Tracsis and provided in August 2016;  Quality of journey time data provided by Strat-e-gis;  Timing and delivery of data on developments in the local area from local planning authorities;  Calibration and validation of new St Austell VISUM Transport Model

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 Changes in guidance in WebTAG. 2.2 SCALE OF IMPACT

2.2.1 The scheme is expected to impact on journey times between St Austell and the Clay Area towards the A30; there are anticipated to be reductions in traffic flows and associated delays at bypassed junctions along the A391 and B3274.

2.3 TRAFFIC DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH

ORIGIN DESTINATION DATA

2.3.1 Origin destination data has been collected via Road Side Interviews (RSI). The RSIs were undertaken in June 2016. The following RSI sites were included in the programme and are described below in Table 2-2 and shown in Figure 2-1.

Table 2-2 RSI Survey Locations and Dates NO. RSI COUNT LOCATION DATE R1 Carthew - B3274 / C0298 Intersect Wednesday 15th June 2016 R2 A391 – South of A391(North/South) / B3374 Monday 13th June 2016 R3 A3058 – West of The White Pyramid Tuesday 14th June 2016 R4 A390 / Tregongeeves Lane Tuesday 14th June 2016 R5 A390 – Between A391 and Par Moor Road Wednesday 15th June 2016

2.3.2 Data from a further two RSI sites on the A30 will be used to complement the above data. These RSI surveys were commissioned as part of the A30 Temple to Higher Carblake Improvement and the A30 Chiverton Cross to Carland Cross Improvement Schemes.

Table 2-3 A30 RSI Surveys NO. RSI COUNT LOCATION DATE R6 A30 Chiverton 21st October 2015 R7 A30 Temple 22nd October 2015

2.3.3 Essential origin-destination data is required for development of the traffic model. Obtaining new origin-destination data ensures that the modelling will comply with current WebTAG guidance in terms of using relevant and robust data.

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Figure 2-1 St Austell RSI Location Map.

A30

R1

R2

B3274

A391

R5 R3 St Austell

A390 R4

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COUNT DATA

2.3.4 Automatic Traffic Count (ATC) data has been gathered for a full two week period that coincided with the RSI survey dates to allow for continuity and valid comparison. 35 ATC sites were surveyed, including the 5 RSI locations mentioned in Table 2-4. The remaining 30 sites are described below in Table 2-4 and shown in Figure 2-2.

Table 2-4 Locations of Automatic Traffic Counts (ATCs). SITE NO. ATC LOCATION A1 B3274 – Between Larkins Tremayne Farm, and Lowertremayne Farm A2 A39 – Between C0727 Intersect (North) and the bridge crossing (South) A3 A3059 – Between Newquay Road and Trekenning Road A4 Intersect – A392 / C0376 A5 A30 exit to Summercourt – South/East slip A6 Intersect - A3058 / U6093 A7 A389 (Truro Road) road split A8 C0120 - west of B3279 (North to South) / C0120 (West to East) intersect A9 C0184 – Between B3279 (North to East)/ Stamps Hill Roundabout and A10 B3279 – Between Gaverigan Farm and Alton Cottage A11 B3274 – Between the B3274 / C0120 intersect and B3274 road split A12 B3274 – South of Pentre Close A13 A391 – Between Lockengate and Bilberry A14 C0454 - Between Lockengate and Bodwen A15 C0064 - Heavy plant crossing with Kernick Dam to East A16 B3279 – West of disused Hendra China Clay works A17 Currian Hill Road – East of Fenton Farm A18 C0298 – Next to Bardon Aggregates A19 B3274 – North of Gunheath China Clay Works A20 B3374 – Road leading to Old Kerrow Farm Holiday Park and Kerrow Kutz Pet Grooming A21 Trethosa Road – North of St Stephen’s A22 B3279 (Carpalla Road) – Between A3058 and Hill Side Meadows Greensplat Road – Between Greensplat China Clay Works and the disused Biscovellet A23 China Clay works A24 B3274 – East of Trethowel China Clay Works and West of the Industrial Estate A25 Treverbyn Road – South of Drummer’s Hill Road A391- Between St Austell Business Park and Roundabout A391 (North to South) / St A26 Austell and Carclaze Road A27 B3273 (Pentewan Road) – South of Tregorrick Road and East of A28 Intersect - A3082 and Pennys Lane A29 A390 (St Austell Road) – Between Pennys Lane and Biscovey Road A30 A30 exit to Summercourt – North / West slip

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Figure 2-2 Locations of ATCs

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MANUAL CLASSIFIED TURNING COUNTS (MCC)

2.3.5 Manual Classified Counts were undertaken at 22 locations in June and July 2016 which were selected due to their location and relevance to the study. These will be used in the development of the new VISUM transport model. The MCC locations are described in Table 2-5 and shown in Figure 2-3.

Table 2-5 MCC Locations and Date Undertaken. NO. COUNT LOCATION DATE J1 Roundabout – A39 (North to South) / A3059 / Station Road Tuesday 14th June 2016 Roundabout – A39 (North to West) / A392 / Park Road (North to J2 Tuesday 14th June 2016 South) J3 Roundabout – A39 / A30 (West to East) / B3279 Tuesday 14th June 2016 J4 Roundabout – B3279 (North) / B3279 (East) / C0184/ Stamps Hill Tuesday 14th June 2016 J5 Intersect – B3279 (North to South) / C0120 (West to East) Tuesday 14th June 2016 J6 Intersect – B3274 (Victoria Road) / B3274 (North East) / C0120 Tuesday 14th June 2016 Victoria Interchange South Roundabout – B3274/ A30 slipways J7 Tuesday 14th June 2016 (West to East)/ Victoria Interchange North Roundabout Innis Downs South Roundabout – A391 / A30 slipways (West and J8 Thursday 14th July 2016 East) / Innis Downs North Roundabout Roundabout – B3274 road divide (Edgcumbe Road / Fore Street / J9 Tuesday 21st June 2016 Victoria Road) J10 Intersect – B3274 (Fore St) / Harmony Road Tuesday 21st June 2016 J11 Roundabout – B3274 (Fore St) / B3274 (Trezaise Road) / C0018 Tuesday 21st June 2016 J12 Intersect – A 391 (Fore St) / B3274 / C0018 / Park Lane Wednesday 29th June 2016 J13 Roundabout – B3274/ A391 Tuesday 21st June 2016 J14 Roundabout – A391 (North/South) / B3374 Tuesday 21st June 2016 Roundabout – A391 (North to South) / Treverbyn Road / St Austell J15 Tuesday 21st June 2016 Enterprise East exit J16 Roundabout –A3058 (West to East) / B3275 (North to South) Tuesday 21st June 2016 J17 Intersect – A3058 (Carpella Road) / B3279 Tuesday 21st June 2016 A390 - Intersect – on the A390 (West to East) / A3058 (East and J18a Thursday 14th July 2016 west) Intersect A3058 east- on the A390 (West to East) / A3058 (East and west) J18b Thursday 14th July 2016 Intersect A3058 west – on the A390 (West to East) / A3058 (East and west) J18c Thursday 14th July 2016 Intersect J19 Intersect – A390 (West to East) / A391 Tuesday 21st June 2016 J20 Roundabout – A390 (West to East) / Par Moor Road Tuesday 21st June 2016

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Figure 2-3 Location Map for Manual Classified Counts (MCC)

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JOURNEY TIME DATA

2.3.6 Journey time data will be derived from the Strat-e-gis database. Accuracy of the journey time data will be assessed and used for validating the VISUM model in the LMVR. The proposed journey time routes to be assessed are shown in Figure 2-4.

AUTOMATIC NUMBER PLATE RECOGNITION (ANPR)

2.3.7 ANPR surveys have been undertaken at 11 different locations to capture journey movements and timings. Sites were selected strategically along pre-set screen lines set by CORMAC. The site locations are described below in Table 2-6. The ANPR data will be used to assist in calibration of the model.

Table 2-6 ANPR Locations NO. COUNT LOCATION N1 B3279 – Between A30 slipway and Roundabout N2 B3274 – North of B3279 (North to South) / C0120 (West to East) Intersect and South of A30 N3 C0120 – West of B3279 (North to South) / C0120 (West to East) intersect N4 B3274 – Between Victoria Interchange and the Filling station N5 A391- Between South Innis Downs roundabout and Castle Hill N6 B3279 – West of disused Hendra China Clay works N7 B3274 – North of Gunheath China Clay Works N8 Intersect – A391 ( Road) / Caudledown Lane N9 B3279 (Carpella Road) – Near Hillside Meadows Intersect N10 B3274 ( Road) – South of the Drummers Hill Intersect / North of the Mill House N11 A391 – South of A391 / C774 Intersect and North of the roundabout

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Figure 2-4 Journey Time Routes

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2.4 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

BASE MODEL DEVELOPMENT

2.4.1 It is proposed that a new St Austell VISUM model will be developed to identify and appraise the preferred scheme to support the production of the Outline Business Case. The model will be developed during Autumn / Winter 2016.

BASE MODEL SUPPLY Highway Network

2.4.2 The network for the VISUM model will be based upon mapping purchased from HERE©. This network is free from anomalies and issues that are associated with free open source mapping and includes important traffic attributes such as the number of lanes, one way roads and speed limits. The network will include the finest level of detail in St Austell and within the simulation area, with a reduction in detail with distance from the area of interest.

2.4.3 The simulation area will include St Austell, Roche, Bugle and the China Clay Pits and the A30 junctions serving St Austell which will fully encompass the footprints of the proposed scheme. Within this simulation area all primary and secondary roads will be included as well as any through route residential roads which influence route choice in the area.

2.4.4 Checks will be undertaken across the full modelled network, but particularly within the simulation area, to ensure that the network is comprehensive and accurately represents the strategic road network. The network will be discussed with Cornwall Council and Cormac to ensure that routes that they consider to be important and relevant for the study and purpose of the model are included within the modelled network.

Zoning System

2.4.5 The St Austell traffic model zone system shapefile will be based upon a combination of Census Output Areas (COAs), Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) and Middle Super Output Layers (MSOAs) within Cornwall. The main simulation area covering St Austell will also include Roche and Bugle to the north, and to the east, and Portmellon and St Stephen to the west. This area of detailed simulation will be made up entirely of COAs to ensure the maximum level of detail available and will ensure complete coverage of the proposed scheme and alternative route choices. Where necessary some zones may be split further to account for specific land use areas within COAs such as for the Eden Project or the China Clay Pits just outside St Austell. The main simulation area (comprised of COAs) is shown in Figure 2-5 in light blue.

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Figure 2-5 Simulation Area

2.4.6 The wider area of detailed modelling will encompass the entirety of Cornwall to varying levels of detail. Immediately surrounding the simulation area zones, will be an area comprised of LSOAs (shown in green in Figure 2-6), while the northern and southern parts of the County will be comprised of MSOAs (dark blue in Figure 2-6). The full model extent includes Devon, which will be split into council districts for better control of traffic routes into and out of Cornwall, and cities such as Exeter and Plymouth which will be modelled distinctly to provide a lower, but still detailed, zoning system where such detail is not deemed necessary for the study and purpose of the model.

Figure 2-6 Study Area: Fully Modelled Area

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2.4.7 Zones outside of the South West are also included within the model extent, as shown in Figure 2- 7.

Figure 2-7 External Model Area

Junction Modelling and Link Speeds

2.4.8 Within the Simulation Area all significant junctions will be modelled in detail. In urban areas such as St Austell, the junction coding and associated delays are considered to hold the greatest influence on traffic speeds. Outside of these urban areas speed/flow relationships as specified by the DfT’s link-based Cost Benefit Analysis (COBA) will be applied to the network to accurately reduce link speeds between junctions during congested conditions.

Public Transport

2.4.9 The public transport supply in the area for all bus routes and their associated timetables will be included within the model. This will ensure the impact of the bus network on highway capacity is taken into account in the modelling.

2.4.10 No allowance will be made for passenger demand forecasting within the scope of the model.

BASE MODEL DEMAND

2.4.11 The base year demand will be for 2016, in line with the survey data acquired for this model. The user classes in the model are given in Table 2-7.

Table 2-7 Model User Classes MODEL USER CLASS MODEL USER CLASS NAME 1 Car Commute 2 Car Employers Business 3 Car Other 4 LGV 5 HGV

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2.4.12 The modelled time periods for the traffic model are as given in Table 2-8.

Table 2-8 Model Time Periods

MODEL TIME PERIOD MODEL TIME PERIOD TIME AM 08:00 - 09:00 IP average hour (10:00 – 16:00) PM 17:00 – 18:00

Observed Demand

2.4.13 The RSI matrices will be produced individually for each of the five user classes at each of the seven RSI sites around St Austell to construct both an interview and non-interview direction matrix. This will produce a total of 70 matrices that will be compiled to produce the full RSI matrix for each time period.

2.4.14 The potential for the same trip to have been observed at two or more of the interview sites will be corrected during the matrix compilation process. A binary matrix of which zone-to-zone movements are observed will be prepared for each interview site / direction / time period combination. When the binary matrices with common directions of travel are combined, this highlights movements with multiple observations, allowing the relevant elements of the combined RSI matrix to be reduced accordingly.

2.4.15 The reported journey start and end points will be mapped to the zone system using GIS analysis.

2.4.16 The full morning (07:00-10:00) and evening (16:00-19:00) peak periods will be used as an enhanced sample of the trip patterns for the respective peak hours. The interpeak matrix will use all observed data (10:00-16:00) to inform the travel patterns and purposes for the modelled average hour.

2.4.17 In order to estimate the non-interview matrices for each RSI site, an individual factor will be applied to the transpose matrix for each time period transition to derive the reverse movement. e.g. AM_to_AM, AM_to_IP and AM_to_PM etc. These factors will be derived for each combination of time period, trip purpose and vehicle classification using the return journey times reported by the interview respondents.

2.4.18 Once the interview direction matrices have been compiled from the raw data and the non- interview direction matrices had been estimated from them using the reported time period tour proportions, the resulting interview site matrices will be scaled to match the vehicle volumes observed passing the count points.

Synthesised Infill Matrix

2.4.19 The 2011 census data will be expanded to 2016 for growth in population, households, workforce and jobs for each district with data from the National Trip End Model (NTEM) using the Trip End Model Presentation Program (TEMPro). Production and attraction data is available disaggregated by 15 trip purposes which will be aggregated into the five trip purposes represented within the St Austell model. These trip generation assumptions will be applied at a spatial level consistent with the modelled zoning system being used.

2.4.20 A distribution model, or gravity model, will then be built to distribute the 2016 trip ends. A gravity model is based upon the assumption that the trips produced at an origin and attracted to a destination are directly proportional to the total trip productions at the origin and the total attractions at the destination. The gravity model also takes into account that as travel times increase, travellers are increasingly less likely to make journeys of such distances.

2.4.21 NTEM provides trip ends by purpose which will be distributed individually based upon the known

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jobs in an area, households, schools and colleges, shops and recreation areas and tourist attractions. These distributed matrices will be compiled to provide a complete matrix that can be calibrated both against National Travel Survey (NTS) data and trip length data.

Prior Matrix

2.4.22 The prior matrix will be a mixture of the RSI observed matrix and the synthesised infill matrix. Where OD movements in the matrix are available from RSI data these will replace the OD movements from the synthetic matrix. This combination is important because matrix estimation cannot be undertaken on a matrix where ODs are missing entirely or if the RSI sample rate is significantly low that there is no real OD variation taken into account by the highly factored counts. The use of the synthesised matrix will therefore be important to ensure a more realistic spread and mix of trips within the prior matrix. The prior matrix will be used for model calibration and validation.

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION

2.4.23 The St Austell VISUM model will be used for testing a new A391 link road between the A30 and St Austell and for informing the business case. Given this purpose, it is important that the model is considered fit for purpose and does not produce unduly misleading or biased results that are material in the context of the scheme being tested. WebTAG guidance will be followed as appropriate in order to produce a model that is considered to be fit for purpose.

2.4.24 The calibration will involve the direct comparison between a set of observed traffic flow data and the modelled flows.

Traffic Count Matrix Estimation and Flow Calibration

2.4.25 The prior matrix will undergo a matrix estimation process to refine the synthesised matrix movements to better fit the observed traffic counts. In line with WebTAG guidance this process will “intercept intra-sector movements and which are distinct from the sites at which new and old roadside interview surveys were taken.” (DfT, WebTAG M3-1).

2.4.26 The matrix estimation process will be checked against a number of counts separate to the RSI counts within the model. These will predominantly be on longer distance inter-zonal trips within the model. Trip length distribution (TLD) checks will be carried out before and after matrix estimation in order to ensure that the process has not significantly distorted the underlying trip patterns established during the matrix building process.

2.4.27 WebTAG guidance states that calibration counts on screen lines should be presented. However, the nature of the model means this is unlikely to be achievable given the minimal number of significant primary routes that are both included within our study area and have not been included in the RSI data collection. A sensible approach regarding the counts used for matrix estimation will be developed to ensure that the WebTAG requirement of intercepting trips independent of the roadside interview cordons and screenlines is achieved.

2.4.28 Matrix estimation will be used during the process to enhance model calibration, but in line with WebTAG guidance the effects of the matrix estimation will be minimised by only applying this process to the OD movements taken from the synthetic matrix, not the RSI movements.

Independent Link Flow Validation

2.4.29 Model validation will require the direct comparison between modelled and observed data. This will include traffic flows, using a set of data identified as validation counts), journey times and ANPR data.

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2.4.30 Independent validation screen lines will be set up that are separate from both the matrix estimation counts and the RSI screen lines. These will spread across the simulation area, especially focussing on the North-South links between St Austell and the A30 where the model focus lies.

2.4.31 Two measures will be used to compare the differences between the modelled and observed counts with both the GEH statistic and the absolute and percentage differences of counts being used. Link flows that meet either of the criteria are acceptable. Following WebTAG guidance, flow validation will be presented separately for Cars and then for total vehicles. The flow validation criteria and acceptability guidelines are described in Table 2-9.

Table 2-9 Link Flow Validation Criteria and Acceptability Guidelines CRITERIA DESCRIPTION OF CRITERIA ACCEPTABILITY GUIDELINE

Individual flows within 100 vehicles per hour of >85% of all cases counts for flows < 700 vehicles per hour

Individual flows within 15% of counts for flows 1 >85% of all cases from 700 to 2700 vehicles per hour

Individual flows within 400 vehicles per hour of >85% of all cases counts for flows > 2700 vehicles per hour

2 GEH < 5 for individual flows >85% of all cases

Source: DfT Webtag M3-1

Journey Time Validation

2.4.32 A number of journey time routes are available within the study area which the model will be validated against. WebTAG states that 85% of routes should be within 15% of surveyed times or within one minute. The data available is not separated by light and other vehicle types and therefore the journey time comparison will be presented for all vehicles types together.

MODEL ASSIGNMENT AND CONVERGENCE

2.4.33 An element of developing the model is ensuring that a satisfactory convergence is achieved. Model convergence is needed to ensure traffic flows remain stable between successive iterations of the model.

2.4.34 In accordance with criteria set out in WebTAG Unit M3.1 (January 2014), the parameters %Flow, %GAP and Delta (δ) will be monitored to determine the level of convergence. %Flow measures the proportion of links in the network with flows changing by less than 1% from the previous iteration. δ is the difference between costs on chosen routes and costs on minimum cost paths. %GAP is a generalisation of the δ function to include the interaction effects within the simulation.

The convergence criteria used to assess when a model is considered to have converged is shown in Table 2-10.

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Table 2-10 Convergence Acceptability Values MEASURE OF CONVERGENCE ACCEPTABLE VALUE

Less than 0.1% or at least stable with convergence ‘Delta’ and %GAP fully documented and all other criteria met

Percentage of links with flow change < 1% Four consecutive iterations greater than 98%

Percentage of links with cost change < 1% Four consecutive iterations greater than 98%

Percentage change in total user costs Four consecutive iterations less than 0.1%

REPORTING

2.4.35 A Local Model Validation Report (LMVR) will be produced detailing the steps taken to setup, calibrate and validate the base year model.

MODEL FORECASTING

2.4.36 The future year network will be modelled for 2022 (scheme opening year) and 2037 (forecast year).

2.4.37 The proposed development in the Local Plan will be checked to see how likely they are to be delivered (near certain, more than likely, reasonably foreseeable and hypothetical). Those that are defined in the core scenario according to WebTAG will be site specifically loaded for St Austell and Carclaze (including increased HGV movements associated with Quarry activity in the area). The wider area development will be taken from TEMPRO and the whole model will be constrained to the TEMPRO growth factors as stated in the WebTAG guidance.

2.4.38 Cornwall Council, as the local planning authority, will be asked to contribute data identifying the locations and size of planned development in the local area. This data will feed into the uncertainty log. An example of the uncertainty log headings is provided in Table 12-11 with the key for probability input shown in Table 2-12.

Table 2-11 Example of Uncertainty Log

UNITS UNITS REF IF PROBABILI DEVELOPMENT LOCATION LAND USE SIZE UNITS COMPLETED COMPLETED ANY TY BY 2022 BY 2037 UE1 St Austell C3 Housing 100 dwellings MTL 50 100 UE2 Roche C3 Housing 200 dwellings MTL 40 200

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Table 2-12 Key for Probability Input

ABBREVIATION PROBABILITY OF THE INPUT STATUS

Near certain: the outcome will happen or Intent announced by proponent to regulatory NC there is a high probability that it will agencies. Approved development proposals. happen Projects under construction Submission of planning or consent application More than likely: The outcome is likely to MTL imminent. Development application within the happen but there is some uncertainty consent process Identified within a development plan. Not directly associated with the transport strategy/scheme, but may occur if the strategy. Scheme is implemented. Reasonably foreseeable: The outcome Development conditional upon the transport RF may happen, but there is significant strategy/scheme proceeding. Or, a committed uncertainty policy goal, subject to tests (e.g. of deliverability) whose outcomes are subject to significant uncertainty. Conjecture based upon currently available Hypothetical: There is considerable information. Discussed on a conceptual basis. One H uncertainty whether the outcome will of a number of possible inputs in an initial ever happen consultation process. Or, a policy aspiration.

2.4.39 Any proposed infrastructure improvements that are at least ‘more than likely’ to come forward in the scheme period will be included in the future year Do Minimum networks. This information will be taken from the district Infrastructure Plans and local knowledge of the progression of each of the schemes. Those less certain will be included within the future year Do Something networks.

2.4.40 The Core scenario will be used to model both the Roche and the Bugle option, and the outputs used to help determine a single preferred option. This preferred option will then be subject to sensitivity checks using Low and High growth scenarios developed in line with the guidance in WebTAG Unit M4: Forecasting and Uncertainty.

SITE SPECIFIC LOADING AND DISTRIBUTION

2.4.41 Trip generation for each development site will be determined using trip rates (sourced from relevant approved Transport Assessments and/or the TRICS database) and the distribution of development trips will be generated using a gravity model or by adopting the distribution from similar zones in the base model.

NTEM AND NTM GROWTH FACTORS

2.4.42 Appropriate growth factors will be worked out by cross referencing zones in the VISUM model to COAs, LSOAs and MSOAs and TEMPro zones. The Growth Factors will be adjusted in TEMPRO using the Uncertainty Log.

2.4.43 TAG Unit M4 outlines the DfTs technical guidance for forecasting and uncertainty in developing traffic models. The methodologies detailed in Tag Unit M4 will be adopted for taking into account background traffic growth in travel demand in the A30 to St Austell Link traffic model.

2.4.44 As land use developments are a source of uncertainty, the total growth predicted by the forecast model has to reflect the total growth predicted by TEMPro in order to be consistent with national and regional planning policy.

2.4.45 Developments listed in the uncertainty log will use the alternative assumptions facility in TEMPro to adjust the NTEM trip ends to exclude development sites. In keeping with WebTAG

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methodology this will be undertaken using the following methodology:

 calculate the number of households and/or jobs in the NTEM zone resulting from developments (dwellings are often taken as a proxy for households);  subtract the number of households and/or jobs thus calculated from the zone totals in NTEM;  enter these data into TEMPro (alternative planning assumptions) and rerun, to calculate the growth in trip ends excluding the developments;  add the development trip ends based on the Transport Assessment; and  check and report the total trip ends. These should be very close to the NTEM total for the given NTEM zone.

2.4.46 Growth factors will be derived from TEMPro for Car User Classes and the National Transport Model used for LGVs and HGVs.

2.4.47 Table 2-13 shows the equivalence between the TEMPro time periods and the model time periods.

Table 2-14 shows the equivalence between the TEMPro user classes and the model user classes.

Table 2-13 TEMPro User Class Equivalence

MODEL TIME PERIOD MODEL TIME PERIOD TIME TEMPRO TIME PERIOD AM 08:00 - 09:00 Weekday AM peak period (0700-0959) IP average hour (10:00 – 16:00) Weekday Inter peak period (1000-1559) PM (17:00 – 18:00) Weekday PM peak period (1600-1859)

Table 2-14 Model User Class Equivalence

MODEL USER CLASS MODEL USER CLASS NAME TEMPRO UCS OD OR PA 1 Commute HB Work Average OD 2 HB EB HB Employers Business OD 3 EB HB Other OD 4 LGV - (NTM Growth) - 5 HGV - (NTM Growth) -

TEMPRO CONSTRAINT

2.4.48 In order to achieve this, constraining factors are derived for each TEMPro region. The constraining factors are calculated by comparing the growth for the TEMPro region and the growth from the forecast matrix that includes development trips only. The factor calculated adjusts the growth in the existing forecast matrix to equal the growth predicted by TEMPro for each model zone. These factors are then applied to each model zone within each TEMPro sector. The adjustment includes the zones that have had development trips already loaded onto them.

2.4.49 The level of growth will be constrained to for each user class for every peak period. The LGV and HGV growth will not be constrained because the factors applied to these user classes will be extracted from the National Transport Model and applied at a regional level.

FUEL AND INCOME

2.4.50 In addition to applying the above stated national growth factors to external trips in the forecasting matrix, fuel and income factors will be calculated through data and guidance stated in the TAG data book (TAG Unit A1.3, November 2014). It is understood the guidance is due to be updated in November 2016. Assuming the update is published prior to the forecast modelling being

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undertaken, the November 2016 update will be adhered to so far as is possible.

VARIABLE DEMAND MODELLING

2.4.51 Variable Demand Model (VDM) tests outlined in WebTAG will be carried out to see if variable demand modelling is required. The timescales for submission of the Outline Business Case are unlikely to support the undertaking of VDM. However, the need for VDM assessment will be addressed through liaison with DfT once the outcomes of the VDM tests are known.

DEPENDENT DEVELOPMENT

2.4.52 Whilst the scheme is likely to support local development through providing an improved link between St Austell and the A30 (see Chapter 3 of this ASR), there are not any developments that are considered to be formally dependent on the scheme going ahead as the scheme is not included within the emerging Local Plan for the area. As such, it is not deemed necessary to undertake any dependent development tests as part of the appraisal of this scheme.

2.5 SUMMARY OF THE RELEVANT AREA OF THE COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY

2.5.1 A Communications Strategy document has been produced by CORMAC Solutions as part of the PID. The document sets out how all responsible parties are responsible for providing accurate, appropriate and timely communication. The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring the project team, clients and contractors are kept up to date with project developments.

2.6 WORK PROGRAMME

2.6.1 The VISUM model base development is scheduled to be completed by December 2016, with the forecast modelling scheduled for January 2017. An Outline Business case is scheduled to be submitted to the DfT by March 2017, creating challenging time constraints for modelling.

2.7 RISKS

2.7.1 The following risks have been identified with the transport modelling work:

 Issues with the data, or arising from model calibration and validation could cause delays to completion of the base model;  Tight timescales for forecast modelling due to a deadline of Outline Business Case by March 2017;  Updates to WebTAG guidance throughout the modelling process.  TUBA reveals illogical results, needing to revisit modelling;  Change of scope by Cornwall Council. 2.8 CHANGE LOG Table 2-15 Transport Modelling Change Log

VERSION SECTION CHANGE

1.0 Original

2.9 REFERENCES

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 A30 to St Austell Link Road - Options Appraisal Report, CORMAC, December 2015;  CORMAC Solutions 2015 A30(T) St Austell Link Communications Strategy;  Cornwall Council, 2016, Cornwall Local Plan - Strategic Policies 2010-2030;  Cornwall Council, 2013, Planning Future Cornwall; Growth Factors: China Clay Network Area – Version 2;  Cornwall Local Development Framework 2012 St Austell, St Blazey and China Clay Area Regeneration Plan;  WebTAG Units M1 to M5 on transport modelling and the TAG data book.

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3 ECONOMY 3.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA

3.1.1 The economic assessment and appraisal of the A30 to St Austell Link scheme will be undertaken using outputs from the model developed as outlined in section 2.

3.1.2 Assessment of economic benefits including Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) benefits are outlined below in 3.5. The assessments will be subject to established methodologies as laid out in WebTAG.

3.2 TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS

3.2.1 Constraints are likely to comprise:

 Updating of the cost estimates for the scheme options;  Changes in guidance in WebTAG. 3.3 SCALE OF IMPACT

3.3.1 The impact of the scheme; reduction in congestion, changes in journey times, change in accidents, and provision of capacity for additional growth on the economic assessment will be captured by the traffic modelling as described in section 2. Outputs from the modelling will be used in the economic appraisal process.

3.4 TRAFFIC DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH

3.4.1 Traffic data inputs to the DfT’s Transport User Benefit Appraisal (TUBA) and Cost Benefit Analysis Light Touch (COBALT) appraisals will be provided from the traffic model. Further income data for output areas within the south west will be obtained from the Office of National Statistics to allow assessment of Distributional Impacts (DIs).

3.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

TRANSPORT ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY (TEE)

3.5.1 The economic appraisal will use TUBA to assess time and vehicle operating cost savings for business users, disaggregated by freight and those travelling on business trips, by mode and by banded range of time saving. The forecast models will use two future years; TUBA will use these forecasts to extrapolate a 60 year appraisal.

3.5.2 In accordance with WebTAG, the time savings bands will be as follows:

 Less than -5 minutes;  -5 to -2 minutes;  -2 to 0 minutes;  0 to 2 minutes;  2 to 5 minutes  Greater than 5 minutes.

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3.5.3 TUBA will use data from the final future year highway assignments as inputs.

3.5.4 Annualisation factors will be established by utilising the seasonal representativeness of the route, and deriving adjustment factors using local count data. The data will be analysed to determine whether further time periods outside of neutral month periods can be incorporated into the appraisal; this will be possible where traffic flows outside of the modelled neutral month periods exceed those in the neutral month periods. Where this is possible, the annualisation factors will be calculated to included these additional periods. It should be noted that some time periods outside neutral months will be excluded from the assessments calculated from the TUBA assessments, and the appraisal will therefore be a conservative estimate of the true scheme benefits.

3.5.5 The construction stage of the scheme will produce negative impacts on the current network. The impact of traffic management regimes in place during construction phase will be assessed by the models to determine the economic impact. The impact of benefits or disbenefits due to maintenance will not be assessed as these are considered to be small.

3.5.6 The outputs from TUBA will then be utilised to create the TEE tables.

REGENERATION AND WIDER IMPACTS

3.5.7 As well as the ‘traditional’ economic impacts such as monetised journey time savings, the new Link Road will be a catalyst for a series of other economic impacts in St Austell and the surrounding area. Under Department for Transport (DfT) appraisal guidance, these other impacts are termed ‘wider economic impacts’ and there are three sets of guidance listed under the current version of WebTAG that are relevant here:

 Wider Impacts (current WebTAG Unit A2.1) – primarily covering agglomeration impacts;  Regeneration (current WebTAG Unit A2.2) – based on the identification of a Regeneration Area and the extent to which improved transport connectivity / accessibility can facilitate economic growth in this area; and  Dependent Development (current WebTAG Unit A2.3) – primarily covering the monetary impacts of land value gain when specific (residential) developments are justifiably ‘unlocked’ by a transport scheme.

3.5.8 Although this guidance remains current in 2016, DfT is consulting on an update of this guidance with the consultation period due to close on 22nd December 2016. Following consultation and any subsequent amendments, the guidance will then formally become part of WebTAG at some point in 2017.

3.5.9 Based on preliminary discussions with DfT, however, it has become apparent that promoters of schemes are already being encouraged to take on board certain aspects of the revised guidance when undertaking wider economic impact assessments. The approach adopted here therefore reflects key aspects of the revised guidance, not least the requirement for a ‘Context-Specific Economic Narrative’.

3.5.10 The Link Road will play a significant part in boosting the local economy in and around St Austell in several different ways.

3.5.11 It is the purpose of this section of the ASR to describe these impacts and how they can be captured in the ‘Economic Case’ as well as in the ‘Strategic Case’ for those impacts that lie outside the welfare-based assessment methodologies in WebTAG.

3.5.12 To illustrate how the process will work, the figure overleaf summarises the key reporting stages and the different types of analysis (and how these are subsequently reported in the Economic and Strategic Case).

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Figure 3-1 Wider Economic Impacts Process

TRANSPORT BUSINESS CASE

ECONOMIC IMPACTS REPORT (EIR)

CONTEXT-SPECIFIC ECONOMIC NARRATIVE

Current Unit A2.1 Non-welfare impact 1: Agglomeration e.g. GVA impacts

Current Unit A2.2 Non-welfare impact 2: Regeneration e.g. labour market

Current Unit A2.3 Non-welfare impact 3: Dependent Development e.g. skills development

ECONOMIC CASE STRATEGIC CASE

Existing Knowledge and Data

3.5.13 There is a very large volume of evidence relating to the local economy of St Austell and the surrounding area. Extensive work has already been undertaken to compile evidence on the economic performance of the area and how poor transport connectivity is already constraining growth and development. Examples explored in more detail in this chapter (see Section 0) include:

 Data on planned developments, their importance to the area and how they are being ‘held back’ due to transport connectivity and accessibility constraints – data is contained in Cornwall Council’s Site Allocations Development Plan Document and the Council’s Employment Land Review;  Data on deprivation and other economic indices in the area and the wider region and county – data is available from the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). This includes data on relative deprivation;  Data on employment and skills in the area – data is available from a variety of sources, including the 2016 to 2030 Employment and Skills Strategy (Refresh) developed by the Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) and work on skills being undertaken for the new Strategic Economic Plan (SEP);  Research undertaken by local development agencies (such as the Cornwall Development Agency, CDC) – this includes the St Austell Bay Area Investment Plan (developed to assist in unlocking the area’s economic potential by identifying and evaluating key future investment projects); and  Data from recognised Government sources such as Office for National Statistics (ONS) and NOMIS (as well as data collated locally of indices of multiple deprivation, IMD).

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3.5.14 Further data is available from the following sources:

 St Austell Place-Based Topic Paper (March 2013) – this identifies the key issues that need to be addressed for the St Austell area;  St Austell and Parishes Framework – Evidence Base;  St Austell, St Blazey and China Clay Regeneration Area Plan – Evidence Base;  Settlement Profiles – a list of community facilities and services available for key towns in the region;  St Austell Growth Factors Profile (Version 2) – summarises the objectives and constraints relating to growth in the area;  St Austell Historic Environment Service Data Sheet – per community network, this outlines the characteristics of the area in terms of ‘historic environment’  St Austell and Mevagissey Infrastructure Schedule – presents key infrastructure programmes and projects that are required to meet needs in the area (as a result of the growth proposed in the Cornwall Local Plan);  St Austell Delivery and Investment Plan – each “place plan” sets out projects to be delivered over the next five years and identifies those projects that are considered ‘critical’, ‘necessary’ or ‘opportunity projects’;

3.5.15 St Austell is also specifically referenced in 1) the Cornwall Employment Land Review, 2) the Cornwall Retail Study, 3) the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) and 4) the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA).

3.5.16 Information is also available from local sources such as the St Austell Business Improvement District (BID).

3.5.17 This extensive evidence base will be used when developing the full Context-Specific Economic Narrative.

3.5.18 The Economic Narrative will be developed with clear linkages between the local economic characteristics of the area and the impact the Link Road will have on the area’s economic growth and regeneration objectives.

3.5.19 The Narrative will achieve this through the following:

 There will be clear linkages between economic issues / problems in the area and the ways in which the Link Road will help address these – examples being the benefits associated with improved connectivity (‘proximity impacts’) between jobs and workers;  Where there is evidence that particular developments are being ‘held back’ by a lack of transport connectivity, these will be described and will be related to specific parts of the guidance (in this case, the forthcoming Unit A2.2, Induced Investments); and  Where other economic impacts cannot be included in the Economic Case (under ‘welfare analysis’), the aim will be to include these as part of the Strategic Case – this is where the updated guidance now permits GDP / GVA and employment impacts to be reported in specific contexts, for example. Data Requirements

3.5.20 As well as the local context-specific economic data collated for the Narrative, the proposed approach also requires the following:

 DfT Economic Dataset (WebTAG);

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 GDP per worker per Local Authority District (LAD) – again, this forms part of the WebTAG dataset;  Total employment by sector – e.g. this is also contained within the WebTAG dataset and covers each LAD as well as the four different ‘industry’ sectors covered in WebTAG;  Earnings data (for taxation-related calculations);  Transport model outputs – the transport modelling has been described in Chapter 2;  Average generalised cost of travel data;  Number of journeys between model zones; and  Land value data (covering both current land values and future values after development has taken place) – the sources of this data will be the existing data contained in the current Unit A2.3 guidance and ‘local’ values from agents / the local authority,

3.5.21 A large proportion of the data above will be used directly in the calculation of Wider Impacts (agglomeration).

Methodology

3.5.22 The methodology to be used reflects both current WebTAG guidance covering ‘wider economic impacts’ as well as taking on board key aspects of the revised guidance.

3.5.23 Following preliminary discussions with DfT, it is understood that the methodology can take account of the following:

 DfT will accept certain elements of the new guidance (such as the Economic Narrative, Economic Impacts Report and the reporting of GVA in the Strategic Case, providing this is consistent with the welfare analysis in the Economic Case);  DfT recommend that the calculation of wider economic impacts continues to follow the existing guidance in WebTAG Units A2.1, A2.2 and A2.3 – as the updated guidance is subject to change after consultation, impacts estimated using the consultation units would be exposed to the risk that the methodologies are changed. For this reason, DfT recommend that the existing guidance is used; and  DfT have also notified that there have been technical changes to the labour supply impacts and dependent development methodologies - if these are included in the Economic Narrative, sensitivity tests based on the updated methodologies could be conducted with the ‘core’ scenario following the existing methodologies.

3.5.24 The difference between what can be included in the Economic and Strategic Case will also be reflected in how the different impacts are reported. As an example, the “Value for Money Assessment” is based on welfare analysis (such that only welfare metrics will be included in the Economic Case). Other impacts such as GVA and employment (numbers of jobs) will be reported in the Strategic Case.

3.5.25 DfT have also informed that when determining the value for money of a scheme, all evidence of relevant impacts will be considered. The extent to which evidence informs the value for money conclusions will be based on their robustness and relevance to the transport scheme.

3.5.26 The methodology will cover the following impacts:

 Productivity impacts arising from improved connectivity between workers and jobs – this is based on the current Wider Impacts guidance in WebTAG, the calculation of which will not change in the updated guidance (although the difference between ‘static’ and more ‘dynamic’ impacts is covered in more detail in the updated guidance);

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 Induced impacts arising from the ‘unlocking’ of development due to provision of the Link Road – current WebTAG Unit A2.3 already covers dependent development and how justification needs to be provided as to how new transport infrastructure unlocks residential development. Under the forthcoming guidance, other types of developments will be included (such as commercial and industrial land uses);  Regeneration impacts (following current Unit A2.2) will be limited to the definition of the Regeneration Area and the use of business surveys (these surveys will help inform the Economic Narrative). DfT note that these surveys can provide an important source of information to understand the types of impacts that could occur and the reasoning for these. However, DfT have stated that a potential drawback is that respondents may make claims which are unrealistic –a judgement will therefore be made as to the impacts that appear reasonable given the nature of the scheme. The questions themselves will also closely follow those set out in Unit A2.2;  Other impacts that may be not captured within the Economic Case but are nevertheless relevant to the scheme. As noted above, these will be included in the Strategic Case and will include economic metrics specific to this scheme, including impacts on the labour force and skills levels. These will be explored in more detail in the next phases of the work close dialogue with DfT will be maintained as these are developed.

3.5.27 The matrix below contains a summary of the items to be included in the Economic and Strategic Cases as well as the different ‘Levels’ to be covered in the Economic Case / Value for Money assessment.

Figure 3-2 Matrix of Wider Impacts Methodology and Approach

Economic Case (Value for Money assessment) Strategic Case

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Non-Welfare Impacts

Initial BCR Adjusted BCR Sensitivity Analysis User benefits Examples to include: Fixed Land Use (Traffic modelling) Agglomeration Output Change in 1) GVA impacts Imperfectly Implicit Land Use Competitive Markets 2) Labour Market (Skills) impacts Change Labour Supply Impacts 3) Land Use / Development impacts: Dependent a) Existing businesses Explicit Land Use Development b) Planning permissions (high expiry) Change Move to More/Less c) Other land currently available Productive Jobs d) Currently undeveloped land Productivity Impacts

3.5.28 With respect to productivity impacts, the following sets out why these are relevant here.

3.5.29 The relationship between ‘proximity’ and productivity has been the subject of extensive research and the standard methodology for quantifying these impacts is given in current WebTAG Unit A2.1. Given that there are journeys to / from work in the study corridor, the following will be calculated based on the guidance:

 Agglomeration improvement impacts;  Output changes in imperfectly competitive markets;  Tax revenues arising from;

 changes in labour supply; and

 the move to more or less productive jobs

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3.5.30 Although these will be calculated using the existing A2.1 guidance, it is understood that three different impacts will be ‘redistributed’ across three of the proposed units in the updated guidance. However, it is understood that the underlying methods used to calculate these impacts will be changing.

3.5.31 With respect to the use and calculation of agglomeration impacts, more context-specific detail will be added in the Economic Narrative as to how these will be calculated and how the method will be deployed in this particular circumstance. We will adhere to the principles in this section of WebTAG whereby the change in generalised costs (based on the traffic modelling work) will be the key inputs to the agglomeration calculations.

3.5.32 The agglomeration (or ‘proximity’ impacts) approach is relevant as there are extensive commuting journeys made to and from St Austell (as evidenced in the St Austell Travel to Work Profile 2015 – based on 2011 Census flow data). Key findings from the Profile include the following:

 The principal flows from St Austell are to Bodmin and Truro (there is high use of car for trips to Bodmin, for example);  The principal flows to St Austell are from St Blazey and Par, Newquay and Bodmin;  There are high levels of car use from surrounding settlements across the China Clay Area in the vicinity of St Austell; and

3.5.33 There are higher levels of short trips ending in St Austell compared to the average town in Cornwall – this reflects the weight of the surrounding population density in the Clay Area and the wider conurbation around St Austell

3.5.34 We are also familiar with the Wider Impacts in Transport Appraisal (WITA) software and the potential to use this in conjunction with the traffic modelling outputs. We have also calculated agglomeration impacts using our own workbooks (typically Excel-based) and we will make a decision as to whether to use WITA or other workbooks based on discussions with the traffic modelling team.

Induced Impacts

3.5.35 The main element of this will be identification of proposed and / or potential developments in S t Austell (and the surrounding area) and how these are justifiably linked to the provision of the Link Road.

3.5.36 These instances will be investigated in more detail as part of the ongoing work the findings will be included in the Economic Narrative. The Narrative will also be important as this will set out the context-specific rationale for including these impacts in the analysis. Also important to emphasise is the guidance within WebTAG on how these impacts can be reported and what part of the overall appraisal they can be included in.

3.5.37 For land value data, the values in the current dataset supporting Unit A2.3 (also contained in the Excel model provided as part of the guidance) will be used, and where possible, this data will be supplemented with ‘local’ data covering different types of land uses and their values at different stages of development. This data will be obtained from a variety of sources, including local authorities, agencies and land agents.

Other Economic Factors and Impacts

3.5.38 There are a number of economic factors that are also relevant to St Austell and the surrounding area and these will be described in the Economic Narrative. As indicated in Section 0, these include low levels of skilled jobs, low levels of skills amongst the workforce and low levels of productivity.

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3.5.39 These issues will be reported in the Economic Narrative (as well as the Economic Impact Report.

ECONOMIC CONTEXT (FIRST STAGE OF “ECONOMIC NARRATIVE”) Introduction

3.5.40 As general background context, Cornwall qualified for the European Convergence Programme in 2005 due to its economic performance being 75% lower than the European Union (EU) average. This Convergence Programme consists of two funds: the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the European Social Fund (ESF).

3.5.41 This programme is still in place and aims to invest in four key areas: 1) encouraging investment in research and development (R&D), 2) increasing the proportion of businesses in high value sectors, 3) providing for high quality major developments and 4) facilitating the development of physical regeneration programmes, including the Clay Country area surrounding St Austell.

3.5.42 These four key areas are related to the need to reverse the existing trends in relatively low employment levels and relatively high levels of deprivation. Cornwall has, for example, a low- skilled labour market as well as high levels of deprivation in a number of areas. There are also difficulties associated with the provision of well-positioned employment land.

3.5.43 These trends are further aggravated in the St Austell area, especially since there is a lack of adequate connectivity with the Strategic Road Network (SRN) due to poor accessibility to the A30. The A30 is a key corridor as it provides access to all parts of Cornwall and the main towns and employment centres in the county.

3.5.44 A number of major developments are planned in Cornwall, including the growth of Newquay Cornwall Airport, the regeneration of , Pool and , Combined Universities Cornwall (CUC), the Convergence programme of Strategic Investment Frameworks and, within the St Austell area, the Clay Country Eco-town proposals, which will be dependent on the provision of appropriate accessibility to this strategic mixed-use development.

CHARACTERISTICS OF EMPLOYMENT DEMAND IN CORNWALL Low Demand for Skilled Jobs

3.5.45 The “Employment and Skills Strategy” report states low value sectors such as agriculture, accommodation and food services represent a significantly larger proportion of similar business as observed nationally.

3.5.46 Conversely, the proportion of businesses providing high value professional, technical or information services is markedly lower compared to the national average.

3.5.47 The economy in Cornwall has a strong economic input related to tourism and food services, which is likely to be related to the location of Cornwall away from the main economic hubs in England, and which has defined Cornwall as a ‘quiet’ and rural place to be with a focus on the provision of low value services.

Sectoral Employment

3.5.48 The “Employment Land Review” indicates that ‘non-B class’ employment sectors provide most of the employment in Cornwall with principal growth forecast in Truro, Redruth, Camborne and St Austell.

3.5.49 These growth forecasts are corroborated by the “Employment and Skills Strategy” report, which includes an analysis based on economic modelling undertaken by Experian and Cambridge Econometrics. These produce similar results with the following being key observations:

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 Employment growth has tended to be in the health and social care sector;  There has been employment growth in the accommodation and food services sectors;  There have been reductions in manufacturing employment; and  Reductions in public sector employment. Low Productivity

3.5.50 The types of employment within Cornwall typically generate low Gross Value Added (GVA) per capita.

3.5.51 As shown in the “Employment and Skills Strategy” report, the value for 2014 (£17,278) is the second lowest of all LEP areas in England (70.2% of the average in England). GVA per capita in Cornwall has also seen a reduction in real terms by 4% since 2006.

3.5.52 In terms of total GVA growth, this has also been at a lower rate than the UK average since 2008 (15.2% in Cornwall versus 18.1% in the UK).

3.5.53 The report makes reference to declines in real estate and public sector activities such as public administration, health and education as a factor in this slower growth rate.

3.5.54 This slow growth rates in GVA have also translated to reduced labour productivity by unit of labour input, with an overall decline since 2004. The labour productivity in Cornwall has been estimated as 80% of the UK average, and it is the lowest of all LEPs in the UK.

Employment Levels

3.5.55 The “Employment and Skills Strategy” report states that the unemployment rate for Cornwall, as measured by the Annual Population Survey, was lower than the average in England in September 2015 (4.9% in Cornwall versus 5.5% in England).

3.5.56 Although this is positive, there are a number of characteristics of employment in Cornwall which affect the labour market and demand for labour. This corroborates with the earlier point that there is lower demand for skilled jobs and lower productivity levels in Cornwall.

Full Time Employment

3.5.57 The “Employment and Skills Strategy” report states that the proportion of people employed full time in Cornwall is considerably lower than that in England (and represents the lowest proportion of full time workers in all LEP areas).

Seasonal Employment

3.5.58 The report also states that despite the lower unemployment rates in Cornwall, there is a much more pronounced seasonal effect, with unemployment rising over the winter period as a result of fewer tourism (and other) sector employees required during this period.

Low Earnings

3.5.59 The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings for workplace analysis (included in the “Employment and Skills Strategy” report) shows that median gross annual pay in 2015 for employees working in Cornwall was only 76.3% of the national average.

3.5.60 Furthermore, annual pay in Cornwall has increased at a lower rate than in England (1.1% in Cornwall versus 4.2% in England) since 2012.

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3.5.61 Disposable incomes in the study area are also under pressure as between 2000 and 2009, house prices in St Austell and China Clay areas increased by 144% (a higher percentage overall than in England and Wales). During the same period, however, wages only increased by 34.5% in the Restormel area (as covered in the “St Austell, St Blazey and China Clay Area Regeneration Plan”).

‘Low Pay’ Jobs

3.5.62 Some low paid workers are likely to be employed in low-paying jobs for long periods due to the characteristics of the local market (and also the lack of mobility with people not being able to take advantage of new job opportunities). This mainly affects women working part time in certain sectors, including hotels and restaurants, wholesale and retail and administrative and support services.

Low Skilled Workforce

3.5.63 The “Employment and Skills Strategy” report emphasises the fact that employees in Cornwall have a lower percentage of skills at Level 4 or above than those in England. The Cornwall Community Insight website states that only 25% of the workforce in Cornwall had a degree qualification, compared to 27.4% nationally.

3.5.64 This lower percentage of skilled employees is matched by a lower demand for skills ac ross job opportunities in Cornwall. This includes the following:

 Employers were less likely to ask candidates for particular levels of achievement of academic qualifications (e.g. GCSEs, A levels or a degree) when recruiting (33% in Cornwall versus 49% nationally); and  Employers were less likely to provide external or internal training to employees (by a difference of at least 10%). Post-Recession impacts

3.5.65 The “Employment and Skills Strategy” report refers to a study undertaken by the Work Foundation, which describes the percentage of low paid jobs being higher now than it was in 2008. This has been accompanied by a rise in temporary and part time jobs, as well as self- employment.

LOCAL CONTEXT FOR ST AUSTELL AND CHINA CLAY

3.5.66 Current demand for employment land in Cornwall is driven by two key factors:

 Industrial demand in Cornwall is mainly driven by proximity to the A30, and  Office demand has an important representation in the Truro area, the main urban area in Cornwall.

3.5.67 In the “Employment Land Review”, demand for employment land in Cornwall is defined as small- scale and relatively local, with small, privately-funded speculative development largely confined to the office market in Truro.

3.5.68 St Austell is the fourth largest town in Cornwall and is a significant service centre that traditionally has relied on the ‘Clay Country’ industry sector for employment.

3.5.69 The “Employment Land Review” states that the decline of this industry in the Clay Country has resulted in a major economic challenge in the area and that the location of St Austell away from the A30 has limited its business attraction in recent years.

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3.5.70 The lack of strategic transport links is constraining the potential for investment and business opportunities. The Clay Country eco-town proposal to the north of St Austell could, for example, be a strategic driver of growth and employment in the area if improved connectivity was available.

3.5.71 At present, the industrial sector is based on small and medium sized businesses (except for the declining China Clay industry) whilst there are only a small number of large companies.

DISTANCE TO THE A30 AND EMPLOYMENT LAND DEMAND

3.5.72 The same characteristics that affect the supply and demand for employment land in Cornwall also affect the St Austell area. However, this impact is aggravated due to the poor connectivity of the area to the SRN and the A30.

3.5.73 The “Employment Land Review” states that demand for industrial employment land is driven by proximity to the A30 whilst the “St Austell and Surrounding Parishes Town Framework” refers to the lack of appropriate access to the A30 as a threat to business development and expansion, and points to more favourably located sites abstracting business and development from St Austell.

3.5.74 Other significant issues relating to St Austell as a location for business development include:

 St Austell is also affected by seasonal and sporadic traffic flows, which can increase by up to 15% during the summer period (St Austell Transport Strategy Development);  The local road network experiences congestion through and around the town, especially during peak periods and along the A390; and  There is limited scope to increase capacity in the local highway network, which is constrained by adjacent development (St Austell Transport Strategy Development); St Austell has the Second Lowest Level of Demand for Employment Land in Cornwall

3.5.75 The “Site Allocations DPD” report states that the Local Plan Strategic Policies targets for St Austell are:

 Development of 2,900 dwellings between 2010 and 2030; and  Provision of around 9,750sqm of B1a office accommodation and 12,500sqm of B1c/B2/B8 industrial space.

3.5.76 This places St Austell as the second lowest area in Cornwall in terms of targets for employment land demand. Other areas close to the A30 have higher targets, such as Bodmin where there are targets to develop office and industrial land that are more than double the targets for St Austell.

3.5.77 A number of potential employment land sites included within the China Clay area have already been discounted for future development. These are all located in proximity to the existing A391, and support the fact that the A391 does not provide an appropriate link to the A30 and the SRN.

Employment in St Austell by sector

3.5.78 The demand for employment land in St Austell is expected to be mainly related to non-B class sectors (Employment Land Review) and will be of a generally modest scale. The main sectors likely to require employment land comprise retail, transport, sports and leisure, waste and electricity sectors.

3.5.79 The document also states that gross employment land requirements will be higher for industry (53%) than office (47%) development in contrast to the percentages in Truro (37% for industry and 63% for office). This reflects the lack of demand for skilled jobs in the St Austell area when

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compared to Truro.

REGENERATION OF ST AUSTELL TOWN CENTRE

3.5.80 The “Site Allocations DPD Report” states that the regeneration of St Austell town centre is a key priority for the area. This will attract more visitors to the town with the additional spending boosting the local economy and supporting additional employment. This objective is also stated as a priority in the Cornwall Retail Study.

3.5.81 The existing town centre has been the subject of a recent survey undertaken by the Cornwall Local Development Framework (“Cornwall LDF: Growth Factors – St Austell Community Network Area”). The results indicated that 41% of residents did not view the town centre in a favourable light whilst 36% did not view the shopping facilities in a favourable light.

3.5.82 With 25% of St Austell residents preferring to travel to other centres, the number of vacant premises in the town centre has increased (as highlighted in the “Cornwall Retail Study”). These impacts are likely to be compounded by the relatively poor road access and the fact that – as elsewhere in large parts of the UK – online shopping and retailing is having an adverse impact on traditional shops and outlets.

DEPRIVATION LEVELS

3.5.83 The impacts of the economic and employment conditions in the St Austell area has had a significant impact on deprivation levels in the St Austell Town and the China Clay CNA (Community Network Area) areas, which are compared to averages in Cornwall and England.

3.5.84 The data has been compiled by Cornwall Community Insight and is discussed in more detail below.

Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) Score

3.5.85 The overall IMD 2015 combines indicators under seven different domains of deprivation: Income Deprivation; Employment Deprivation; Education Skills and Training Deprivation; Health Deprivation and Disability; Crime; Barriers to Housing and Services and Living Environment Deprivation. A higher score indicates that an area is experiencing high levels of deprivation.

Table 3-1 IMD Scores AREA SCORE St Austell Town 25.09 China Clay Area 28.09 Cornwall 24.03 England 21.69

3.5.86 This shows that St Austell Town has a higher level of deprivation than the average results for Cornwall and England. This is further accentuated in the China Clay area, which has recently seen decline in the main local industry.

ID 2015 Income Score (rate)

3.5.87 The Indices of Deprivation (ID) 2015 Income Deprivation Domain measures the proportion of the population in an area experiencing deprivation in terms of low incomes. The definition of low income used includes those who are out of work and those who are in work but who have low earnings. A higher score indicates that an area is experiencing high levels of deprivation.

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Table 3-2 IMD Income Scores AREA SCORE St Austell Town 15.4% China Clay Area 16.3% Cornwall 14.2% England 14.5%

ID 2015 Adult Skills Sub-domain Score

3.5.88 The Indices of Deprivation (ID) 2015 Adult Skills sub-domain measures the lack of skills in the local population. A higher score indicates that an area is experiencing high levels of deprivation in this particular category.

Table 3-3 IMD Adult Skills Domain Scores AREA SCORE St Austell Town 0.32 China Clay Area 0.35 Cornwall 0.28 England 0.31

3.5.89 The table above shows that deprivation levels in this category are higher in St Austell than in Cornwall and England (and higher still in the China Clay area).

“Hard Pressed Living”

3.5.90 A further indicator is categorised as “Hard-Pressed Living”. This is defined as areas likely to be concentrated on the ‘fringe’ of UK urban areas and are characterised by large numbers of people in terraced accommodation, high unemployment, low ethnic diversity as well as large numbers of people employed in manufacturing.

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Table 3-4 IMD “Hard Pressed Living” AREA SCORE St Austell Town 23.5% China Clay Area 30.3% Cornwall 20.2% England 17.2%

3.5.91 The “Hard-Pressed Living” areas are also typical of the St Austell and China Clay areas, especially after the decline of the main china clay industry in the area. This is reflected in the results shown in the table above.

WIDER ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF IMPROVED LINKS TO A30 Accessibility to A30 as a Driver of Employment Demand

3.5.92 The development of a new link road connecting St Austell with the A30 and replacing the existing A391 as the main route has been identified in a number of key documents as a priority to 1) attract investment in employment, 2) reverse the trend in low-skilled employment (by opening up land for development) and 3) to act as a facilitator for growth and regeneration that will reduce levels of deprivation in the area.

3.5.93 The “Site Allocations DPD” report refers, for example, to the requirement for the Link Road to make St Austell and West Carclaze (where the eco-town is proposed) a “much more commercially attractive location to do business”.

3.5.94 Development of the Link Road will help deliver the benefits summarised below.

Reduced Journey Times on Key Commuting Corridors

3.5.95 The provision of high quality access to the A30 and the SRN will provide faster, safer and more reliable connectivity to a number of key towns and locations in Cornwall, including Truro, Bodmin and Newquay. Through agglomeration impacts, this higher level of connectivity will enable workers and businesses to access each other in a faster, more reliable way and will boost productivity.

3.5.96 The importance of commuting is emphasised by the number of outbound trips undertaken from St Austell for commuting purposes. These increased by 27% between 2001 and 2011 (according to Census data) whilst inbound traffic increased by 11% in the same period.

Relieve Pressure on Truro, CPR and Falmouth

3.5.97 The “Employment Land Review” refers to the Cornwall Towns Study and the importance of Newquay, St Austell and in terms of their links with the main three centres at Truro, Camborne/Redruth and Falmouth/Penryn (as well as the key role of Bodmin as a major employment centre in North Cornwall).

3.5.98 The study refers to the need to develop better transport links between Bodmin, St Austell and as a means of relieving the pressure on the main centres mentioned above and their roles as employment centres.

Open up Land for Development

3.5.99 The development of the A30 Link Road will provide much-needed access to the following planned developments:

 The “Clay Country Eco-Town” project - one of only four similar projects in the UK. The

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“Employment Land Review” indicates that this will provide 29,000sqm of B1 office space and 34,720sqm of B2 space, with 5 hectares set aside for employment space within West Carclaze. Up to a total of 25 hectares of employment land could be provided as part of the eco-town whilst the development has the capacity to provide new markets for businesses in Cornwall as well as helping to attract new economic activities;  The “Site Allocations DPD” report also mentions a number of proposed schemes within St Austell’s hinterland for industrial space, which would be located by the proposed link road and within easy commuting distance from St Austell; and  St Austell Town Centre - the “Cornwall LDF: Growth Factors – St Austell Community Network Area” work refers to the potential to regenerate the town centre with the development of Old Vicarage Place. This could be linked to the recently developed White River Place and could also open up land for office-related uses in the town.

CONSTRAINTS AND RISKS

In this section, several key constraints and risks identified at this stage are described.

 Extent of use of new WebTAG guidance versus existing guidance: this study is being undertaken during a period when DfT is updating its ‘wider economic impacts’ guidance. Based on discussions with DfT and TASM feedback on other recent ASRs, it is understood that certain aspects of the new guidance are already expected to feature in appraisals. Clarification will therefore be sought as to how much of the current guidance should be followed and to what extent the new guidance should feature;  Magnitude of suggested wider economic impacts: the extent of agglomeration (‘proximity’) and dependent development impacts is not clear at this stage. When calculating these impacts, it is proposed to follow the current guidance in terms of methodology (existing Units A2.1 and A2.3) and results will be set out in the appropriate parts of the Economic Case. It may be that the quantified impacts in the Economic Case do not carry as much weight as those in the Strategic Case. This will be addressed in the accompanying write-ups for the work;  Extent to which developments are dependent on the Link Road: although research to date has pointed to St Austell and the surrounding area being ‘under-developed’ due to transport access constraints, it is understood that evidence has to be compiled showing how developments (including land use) could be unlocked via the new road. Targeted surveys will be undertaken within the study area to address this and enable collation of direct evidence as to how land use and development would be different if better transport access is provided;  Data availability issues: there may be data limitation issues during the detailed work (although there is already a good selection of existing ‘economic’ data covering the study area use will also be made of the DfT’s WebTAG dataset). Where any data limitations are apparent, these will be recorded;  Identification of Study Area / Regeneration Area: A ‘Regeneration Area’ can be defined for a specified geography, especially if regeneration is a key objective. The area as covering St Austell itself plus a surrounding area deemed appropriate in terms of the new road’s influence will be defined. All this will be documented in the detailed Economic Narrative that will accompany the appraisal;  Economic impacts permissible in the Strategic Case: it is understood that the current guidance is being updated and that “non-welfare” impacts covering GDP / GVA and employment can be included in the Strategic Case. Given that the Link Road will also have an impact on other aspects of the local economy (such as the labour market and land use), these will be included in the Strategic Case subject to agreement with DfT; and  Technical issues: WITA software will be used to calculate Wider Impacts as defined in Unit A2.1. If it does not prove possible to link WITA to the existing traffic model, Wider Impacts will be calculated using an offline model.

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RELIABILITY

3.5.100 WebTAG Unit A1.3 provides comprehensive guidance on how to estimate changes in journey time reliability through use of the forecast highway assignment. The methodology will subsequently be consistent with this guidance.

DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS

3.5.101 An assessment of the distributional impacts for business users, transport providers, commuters and other user groups will be completed in line with guidance provided by WebTAG Unit A4.2.

METHODOLOGY FOR COST ESTIMATES

3.5.102 Cost estimates will be quantified and provided by Cornwall Council. These cost estimates will be used for the Outline Business Case and will be produced in accordance to WebTAG Unit A1.2.

INDIRECT TAX REVENUES

3.5.103 Indirect Tax Revenues will be calculated using TUBA as part of the economic appraisal of the scheme as detailed in Section 3.

APPRAISAL SPECIFICATION SUMMARY TABLE

3.5.104 The proposed approach detailed above is summarised in the Appraisal Specification Summary Table (ASST) included in Appendix B.

3.6 SUMMARY OF THE RELEVANT AREA OF THE COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY

3.6.1 A Communications Strategy document was produced by CORMAC Solutions as part of the PID. The document sets out how all responsible parties are responsible for providing accurate, appropriate and timely communication. The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring the project team, clients and contractors are kept up to date with project developments.

3.7 WORK PROGRAMME

3.7.1 Production of the Economic Appraisal is dependent on the completion of forecasting work for the given options. The forecasting work is scheduled to be undertaken during January 2017. With an Outline Business Case to be submitted by March 2017, time constraints mean the Economic Appraisal should be completed as soon as allowed.

3.8 RISKS

3.8.1 A risk register will be set up which will record all risk associated with the design and construction of the scheme. This register will be regularly reviewed and updated by the Project Team.

The Quantified Risk Assessment will be reviewed and updated prior to completion of the Stage 1 work.

3.9 CHANGE LOG Table 3-5 Economic Assessment Change Log VERSION SECTION CHANGE 1.0-Original

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3.10 REFERENCES  CORMAC Solutions 2015 A30(T) St Austell Link Communications Strategy;  Cornwall Local Development Framework 2012 St Austell, St Blazey and China Clay Area Regeneration Plan.  Other documents as set out within Chapter 3 of this ASR.

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4 OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT 4.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA

4.1.1 Existing knowledge and data comprises:

 CORMAC Solutions, 2015, A30(T) St Austell Link Project Initiation Document;  CORMAC Solutions, 2015 A30 to St Austell Link Road Options Appraisal Report; Existing appraisal and assessment methodology and guidance comprises;  WebTAG;  DMRB guidance on highway link and junction design in volume 6. 4.2 TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS

4.2.1 Constraints are likely to comprise:

 Provision of design information  Changes in guidance 4.3 SCALE OF IMPACT

4.3.1 Assessment of the proposed options will need to be considered in detail. Specifically traffic flows against the design capacity of the proposed carriageway options and junction operation on the proposed options, as well as existing junctions that will be substantially affected by the scheme with larger or altered flows will be assessed using the appropriate software.

4.4 TRAFFIC DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH

4.4.1 The forecast model will produce traffic data for the proposed scheme option(s), which in turn will produce AADTs and peak flows. This will be compared against the design capacity of the proposed option(s).

4.4.2 Highway layout information will be provided by the design team for proposed option(s). Existing junctions along with associated geometric data will be sought as part of information to be inputted into the traffic model.

4.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

4.5.1 The following software will be used for junction assessments:

 ARCADY – roundabouts  PICADY – priority junctions  LINSIG – signals

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4.5.2 Operational assessments will be undertaken for the preferred scheme only at all key junctions on the bypass route which are forecast to operate with a maximum V/C value of 90% or greater within the strategic VISUM Do Something model. Assessments will be undertaken for the AM and PM peak hour periods for a neutral period for the forecast years of 2022 and 2037 for the Base, Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios.

4.5.3 The software tools listed above will be used to assess the preliminary highway and junction designs. This will be undertaken in accordance with DMRB processes. Outcomes of this operational assessment may be used to modify designs so that a desired level of performance is achieved. Queues and delays should be minimised allowing the scheme to deliver acceptable journey time improvements as well as other benefits. Modifications to the scheme could involve the addition of extra lanes at junctions.

4.6 SUMMARY OF THE RELEVANT AREA OF THE COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY

4.6.1 A Communications Strategy document was produced by CORMAC Solutions as part of the PID. The document sets out how all responsible parties are responsible for providing accurate, appropriate and timely communication. The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring the project team, clients and contractors are kept up to date with project developments.

4.7 WORK PROGRAMME

4.7.1 The operational assessment can only be completed when an acceptable forecast model is provided for the scheme options. The forecasting work is scheduled for completion in January 2017. The Outline Business Case is to be submitted to the DfT by March 2017, an operational assessment should therefore be completed as soon as the forecasting model is ready.

4.8 RISKS

4.8.1 Major risks are the timescales for the delivery of the forecasts and preliminary designs.

4.9 CHANGE LOG Table 4-1 Operational Assessment Change Log VERSION SECTION CHANGE 1.0-Original

4.10 REFERENCES  DMRB Vol 6  Software: ARCADY, PICADY, LINSIG

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5 ENVIRONMENT 5.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA

5.1.1 A preliminary scoping exercise will be undertaken for the A30 St Austell Link scheme to assess the content needed for the Environmental Appraisal.

5.2 TOPIC RELATED CONSTRAINTS

5.2.1 Environmental constraints are outlined in the relevant sections within this Chapter.

5.2.2 Other constraints could comprise:

 Accuracy of traffic flows;  Extents of traffic flows;  Timing of traffic flows (e.g. slippage in programme);  Construction-related information;  Availability of topographical data to sufficient level of accuracy;  The presence of Noise Important Areas (NIA) along the Scheme; and,  Update to DMRB Volume 11, Section 3, Part 7. 5.3 SCALE OF IMPACT

5.3.1 The anticipation is that there will be some adverse impacts as a result of the scheme options. These will be described in more detail throughout the following sections.

5.4 TRAFFIC DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH Noise

5.4.1 Traffic data required is Annual Average Weekday Traffic (AAWT) flows for an 18 hour period (06:00 – 24:00), for the base year, opening year and design year for the Do-Minimum and Do- Something scenarios. However if traffic flows are forecast to be greater in any other year, then this data should be used instead (design year). Each link will require data regarding percentage of HGVs (defined as greater than 3.5 tonnes, unladden weight) and traffic speed (kph) data for the defined AAWT 18 hr time period as defined in IAN 185/15 (using speed pivoting approach).

5.4.2 DMRB requires an assessment of night-time noise. Hourly traffic data for the period 24:00 - 06:00 or a conversion of data from daytime to night-time should be used. Speed-band categories for each link will be required as defined in IAN 185/15 (using speed pivoting approach).

5.4.3 This assessment will be carried out for an area of 1km from the proposed scheme options, and any bypassed routes. The assessment will also identify other affected routes on the wider highway network which will experience a change in traffic flow of -20% / +25% as a result of the proposed scheme.

Air Quality

5.4.4 Traffic data is required as outlined in IAN 185/15, which includes:

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 Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) flows and average flows for the AM (07:00 – 10:00), IP (10:00 – 16:00), PM (16:00 – 19:00) and OP (19:00 – 07:00) period, including % HDVs.  Average speeds and speed band outputs for the periods above.

5.4.5 All scheme scenarios should have data provided for, including the base year, opening year and design year.

Noise and Air Quality

5.4.6 Index Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) data will be required to inform distributional analysis for the noise and air quality assessments. Baseline monitoring surveys will also be undertaken.

5.4.7 Traffic data for all assessment years will be required to input into the noise and air quality models.

Cultural Heritage

5.4.8 The impact of the scheme on heritage assets and their settings in the vicinity will be taken into account. A scoping exercise and consultation will be undertaken to identify the cultural heritage resource, consider its value and any impact upon it. Heritage assets comprise: World Heritage Sites (WHS), all grades of Listed Buildings (LB) and Registered Parks and Gardens, Battlefields, Conservation Areas, Areas of Archaeological Importance (AAI), historic landscapes, archaeological remains (sub-surface and earthworks), and the potential for previously unknown archaeological remains. If necessary, an assessment of the impact of the scheme’s options will be undertaken along with appropriate supporting surveys needed to support the assessment.

Biodiversity

5.4.9 The options proposed will be subject to biodiversity records search and site surveys to inform the ecological assessment.

Water Quality

5.4.10 There will be an impact on the water environment through the proposed schemes. A water environment assessment will be carried out using site visits and consultation with the relevant authorities.

Landscape and Townscape

5.4.11 The proposed options will have an impact on the receiving landscape and townscape. A scoping exercise will be undertaken to identify landscape / townscape designations and character. The options proposed will be subject to site surveys to inform the assessment.

5.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY Noise and Vibration

5.5.1 The A391 is designated as a major road subject to Environmental Noise (England) Regulations 2006 and falls within the Defra Noise Action Plan. There are also a number of Important Areas (IAs) on the A391 which, under the Action Plan, are required to be investigated for potential action to reduce Noise levels.

5.5.2 The proposed scheme options are significantly different to the current routes. Construction of either scheme options will cause potential changes to noise and vibration levels. The use of low noise surfacing to mitigate the noise of the scheme will be considered.

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5.5.3 Baseline noise and vibration conditions will be assessed within 1km of the proposed options. Once established this data will help ascertain whether the proposed options will result in significant change.

5.5.4 WebTAG Unit A3 Section 2 will be used as guidance to help fulfil this appraisal. WebTAG identifies 5 steps that the methodology should consist of;

 Scoping to determine the study area for assessment;  Quantification of noise impacts using the Calculation of Road Traffic Noise methodology as recommended in WebTAG;  Estimation of the change in noise annoyance;  Monetary valuation of the change in noise impact; and  Assessment of the distributional impacts of changes in noise.

5.5.5 Step 2 will use WebTAG methodology proposed to quantify the noise impact and subsequently determine whether a DMRB simple or detailed assessment is required.

5.5.6 Steps 3 and 4 will use the TAG Noise Spreadsheet as recommended by the guidance.

5.5.7 The traffic model will provide output traffic flows for the proposed scheme. Base year, as well as future forecasting data outputs across all scenarios will be required. Conversion to 18 hour annual average weekday flows from peak and interpeak will be required, derived from ATC data. Average speed and HGV data will also be required covering base year, future forecasts and all established scenarios.

Air Quality

5.5.8 There are no Air Quality Management Schemes (AQMAs) on the current A391 or B3274 route or on any of the proposed options for the scheme. There is an AQMA directed around the management of nitrogen dioxide encompassing the town of St Austell. The proposed scheme could increase trips to and from the St Austell area, subsequently affecting the St Austell AQMA. Similarly, there is an AQMA in Bodmin which was declared as a result of monitored exceedences of nitrogen dioxide at roadside locations and encompasses Bodmin town centre.

5.5.9 The appraisal will consider the effect of the scheme on the surrounding area during the construction and operation of the proposed scheme. The removal of congestion from local villages is anticipated to improve air quality, though some isolated areas may experience increases in pollutant concentration where the route alignment moves emission sources closer to receptors.

5.5.10 The traffic model will be used to provide data to appraise the options within this scheme, this includes an area within 1km of the proposed road, including routes into the St Austell and Bodmin AQMAs and areas where traffic flows are predicted to significantly change as a result of the proposed options.

5.5.11 The appraisal will be based on guidance in WebTAG Unit A3 Section 3. The appraisal will follow the 6 steps as follows:

1. Scoping to determine the study area for assessment; 2. Quantification of air quality impacts; 3. Appraisal of local air quality impacts; 4. Appraisal of regional air quality impacts;

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5. Monetary valuation of air quality impacts; and 6. Consideration of the distributional impacts of air quality changes.

5.5.12 Outputs of traffic flows will be required from the traffic models to assess air quality. These outputs include the base year, as well as future forecasting data outputs across all scenarios. Flows will be converted from the peak and interpeak hour models to annual average daily traffic (AADT) flows for use in the air quality assessment by using factors derived from ATC data. Average speed and proportion of HGV traffic will also be required for the base scenario and all scenarios forecast.

5.5.13 National air quality standards and objectives established by the government will be used to appraise air quality. These standards are set using values provided by the European Union. The objectives for pollutants are prescribed within the Air Quality Regulations, 2000 and the Air Quality (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2002.

Greenhouse Gases

5.5.14 The carbon impact of the scheme will be assessed using outputs from the TUBA assessment which will be carried out as part of the economic appraisal as per the methodology set out in WebTAG Unit A3.

Landscape and Townscape

5.5.15 The scheme options are expected to have a noticeable impact on the surrounding landscape and townscape. The baseline will be established qualitatively via site survey and desk study to establish the character of the landscape/townscape, its distinctive features and visual characteristics. An outline assessment of the potential loss of vegetation will also be included.

5.5.16 Although both the scheme options would avoid built up areas, they would affect the surrounding rural landscape. New built features and landscape elements will be introduced by the proposed options. The impacts of these changes to landscape and townscape will be considered as part of an iterative design process. In addition to establishing the baseline, the assessment will confirm whether the scheme has delivered landscape and townscape objectives in relation to the project plan.

5.5.17 The assessment will be based upon guidance set out within WebTAG Unit A3 Parts 6 and 7.

Cultural Heritage

5.5.18 There are a number of Scheduled Monuments (SMs) in the vicinity of the scheme plan. These include Hensbarrow Beacon and the Three Bowl Barrows scheduled monument south of the B3274-Old A30 crossroads close Roche. Although neither are directly adjacent to the footprint of the scheme its impact on the setting of the SMs will need to be assessed. There are a number of listed structures (such as milestones, mills, claystone works etc.) in the area, some which may lie close to either of the two options.

5.5.19 Consultation with Historic England and the Cornwall Council Archaeologist will be needed to establish the extent of the study areas for a baseline assessment. The assessment will be based on WebTAG Unit A3 Part 8 which adopts a stepped approach through identification of the heritage assets, discussion of their significance, and the impact of the scheme. This approach utilises worksheets and site visit will be necessary for their completion.

Biodiversity

5.5.20 WebTAG Unit A3 Part 9 will be used to provide guidance and methodologies for the assessment of biodiversity on this scheme.

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5.5.21 The proposed scheme options are likely to have significant impacts on biodiversity in the vicinity. An ecological survey will be undertaken to establish a baseline habitat at the site and its immediate surroundings. Local biological records for the sites involved will be required, which can be retrieved from the local Records Centre. Walkover surveys will be undertaken to map habitats that are currently on and/or will be affected by the site as well as noting any other features which may support protected features. The Roche bypass option is aligned close to the Goss Moor National Nature Reserve (NNR) designated as a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) and Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs). This option lies within the low nitrogen buffer zone for the SAC. Both proposed options pass close to or through the Moorland Line.

5.5.22 Potential ecological receptors that are likely to be affected by the scheme options will be identified will be confirmed. As will the need for further surveying involving specific species etc. Advice of mitigating or enhancing measures needed as part of the scheme will be provided.

Water Environment

5.5.23 An assessment of water environment within a 1km vicinity of the scheme will be carried out. It is anticipated that the scheme will have a significant impact upon surface and ground water movements, run off and discharge volumes. Potential flood risks to the scheme options and to affected people and properties will be confirmed through this assessment.

5.5.24 The assessment of potential environmental effects will adopt the following approach:

 Estimation of the importance of the attribute;  Estimation of the magnitude of the impact;  Assessment of the significance of the impact based on the importance of the attribute and magnitude of the impact.

5.5.25 This will be undertaken in accordance with WebTAG Unit A3 Part 10.

Distributional Impacts (DIs)

5.5.26 A distributional impact (DI) assessment will be carried out in line with WebTAG Unit A4.2. This is further outlined in Section 6

Appraisal Specification Summary Table

5.5.27 The proposed approach detailed above is summarised in the Appraisal Specification Summary Table (ASST) included in Appendix B.

5.6 SUMMARY OF RELEVANT AREAS OF COMMUNICATION STRATEGY

5.6.1 A Communications Strategy document was produced by CORMAC Solutions as part of the PID. The document sets out how all responsible parties are responsible for providing accurate, appropriate and timely communication. The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring the project team, clients and contractors are kept up to date with project developments.

5.7 WORK PROGRAMME

5.7.1 The environmental assessments can only be completed when an acceptable forecast model is provided for the scheme options. The forecasting work is scheduled for completion in January 2017. The Outline Business Case is scheduled to be submitted to the DfT by March 2017, an environmental assessment should therefore be completed as soon as the forecasting model is ready in order to adhere to the schedule.

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5.8 RISKS

5.8.1 General risks in terms of delivering the environmental assessment include a tight programme, in particular the outputs of the traffic modelling. The key to managing these risks will be identifying any potential programme overruns at an early stage and ensuring effective communication with members of the team.

5.8.2 There is a risk that the assessment may highlight additional unanticipated areas or receptors requiring further investigation, including the potential for an extended period of monitoring. This may result in unforeseen delays to the assessment delivery.

5.8.3 There is also a risk that the appraisal demonstrates an adverse impact on the environmental aspects considered. If this is the case, appropriate mitigation, including possibly away from the scheme itself, may be required. This may however result in unforeseen scheme costs/impacts on timescales, thus increasing the risk associated with the estimated figures.

5.9 CHANGE LOG Table 5-1 Environmental Assessment Change Log VERSION SECTION CHANGE 1.0-Original

5.10 REFERENCES  CORMAC Solutions 2015 A30(T) St Austell Link Communications Strategy;  DEFRA, 2014, Noise Action Plan: Roads (Including Major Roads)  DfT WebTAG Unit A3 Environmental Impact Appraisal  DMRB, Volume 11, Section 3 Part 7 ‘Noise and Vibration’ (HD213/11).  WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff, 2016, A30 St Austell Link Road: Environmental Appraisal of Options.

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6 SOCIAL IMPACTS 6.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA

6.1.1 Recorded personal injury accidents for the latest 5 year period (January 1st 2009 to January 1st 2014) are to be reviewed to identify any notable collision history within the study area. Statistics is available from Cornwall Council based on accidents reported to the Police STATS19 system. An analysis of accident data within the study area was included in the CORMAC OAR (December 2015).

6.2 TOPIC RELATED CONSTRAINTS

6.2.1 Constraints are likely to comprise:

 Provision of design information  Provision in traffic forecasts  Changes in guidance 6.3 SCALE OF IMPACT

6.3.1 The scale of social impact will be measured against the following sub-objectives:

 Commuting and Other users  Reliability impact on Commuting and Other users  Physical activity  Journey quality  Accidents  Security  Accessibility  Personal Affordability  Severance  Option values

6.3.2 A mixture of qualitative and quantitative assessments are intended to measure the full range of social impact.

6.4 TRAFFIC DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH

6.4.1 Roadside interviews were conducted on five sites at the edges of the detailed study area in June 2016, providing data on journey purpose splits between commutes, work trips, leisure trips etc. Vehicle types (car, LGV, HGV) were also recorded. ATC and MCC data on these sites and some additional sites was collected. ANPR data was also collected, to deduce journey times on key routes.

6.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

6.5.1 Methodologies are set out below for each of the social sub-objectives.

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COMMUTING AND OTHER USERS

6.5.2 As discussed above in Economy Objectives (Section 3), the approach will be to use outputs provided by the traffic model, converted and calculated using TUBA into time and operating costs savings for commuters and other users. This will be displayed by mode and by banded range of time saving.

6.5.3 WebTAG sets out the following bands of time savings:

 Less than -5 minutes;  -5 to -2 minutes;  -2 to 0 minutes;  0 to 2 minutes;  2 to 5 minutes;  Greater than 5 minutes.

6.5.4 Geographic distribution benefits will be plotted. As per WebTAG Unit A1.3 Appendix A guidance, a disaggregation of the distribution impact of non-work time savings will be undertaken. A plotting exercise will demonstrate origin zone trip benefits against income groupings (from Census), and against the Index of Multiple Deprivation, by car and bus modes.

RELIABILITY IMPACT ON COMMUTING AND OTHER USERS

6.5.5 This will use the same approach as detailed in Section 3.5.

PHYSICAL ACTIVITY

6.5.6 The proposed scheme options both include provision for walking and cycling improvements, this is expected to have a small, but positive impact in relation to overall value for money. Subsequently a qualitative assessment will be carried out using terms laid out in WebTAG Unit A4.1 Section 3.

6.5.7 A review will be undertaken of rights of way affected by any scheme elements, and these will be taken into account when designing improvements.

JOURNEY QUALITY

6.5.8 This will be assessed qualitatively using guidance in WebTAG Unit A4.1 Section 6.

ACCIDENTS

6.5.9 An assessment of the impacts of accidents on the proposed scheme options will be derived from the new traffic model and by using COBALT software. This will be completed in line with guidance from WebTAG Unit A4.1. Calculations for both the “with” or “without” scenarios will be undertaken so that any changes can be determined.

6.5.10 The assessment area to be included in the COBALT accident assessment will be determined by analysing traffic flows. Where flows vary by >+/-5% between the “with” and “without” scheme scenarios, these links will be included within the COBALT network.

SECURITY

6.5.11 WebTAG Unit A4.1 Section 4 outlines that road users are not subject to changes to security compared to other public transport options. This road scheme and options are not predicted to

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arise any security issues; therefore no assessment will be created. The scheme will be scored as “neutral”

ACCESSIBILITY

6.5.12 Terminology set out in WebTAG Unit A4.1 Section 8 will be used to assist any need for an accessibility assessment. The scheme options are not intended to impact on any public services and/or public infrastructure meaning the scheme will be scored as neutral. If necessary a Distributional Impact (DI) assessment will be undertaken.

PERSONAL AFFORDABILITY

6.5.13 A screening process will be undertaken in accordance with WebTAG Unit A4.1 Section 9. There is not anticipated to be any significant impacts on affordability for the end user. If deemed necessary a qualitative DI assessment will be carried out, if not, the scheme will be scored as neutral.

SEVERANCE

6.5.14 There is expected to be relief from severance on the A391 and B3274 due to the scheme. Due to the size of the proposed scheme options, and the variables involved, severance impacts may need to be undertaken at a number of locations across the proposed network. WebTAG Unit A4.2 Section 6 defines that “Any areas with significant changes (>10%) in vehicle flow, speed or % HDV content should also be considered for full assessment”. DMRB 11.3.8 provides further guidance on the severity scale.

6.5.15 Screening of potential changes and factors will be undertaken qualitatively to determine whether a full assessment needs to be carried out.

OPTION VALUES

6.5.16 There is not anticipated to be any significant impacts upon option and non-use values in the transport context. Subsequently no assessment of option values will be carried out and the scheme options will be scored as neutral.

6.6 SUMMARY OF THE RELEVANT AREAS OF THE COMMUNICATION STRATEGY

6.6.1 A Communications Strategy document was produced by CORMAC Solutions as part of the PID. The document sets out how all responsible parties are responsible for providing accurate, appropriate and timely communication. The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring the project team, clients and contractors are kept up to date with project developments.

6.7 WORK PROGRAMME

6.7.1 The DI appraisal work will be dependent on outputs provided by the traffic model and forecasting for the scheme options. The forecasting work is scheduled for completion in January 2017. The Outline Business Case is scheduled to be submitted to the DfT by March 2017, the DI should therefore be completed as soon as the forecasting model is ready to adhere to the schedule.

6.8 RISKS

6.8.1 There are some risks associated with the DI appraisal work:

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 Outputs from the traffic modelling work identify that more detailed assessments or assessments over a wider area are required for some of the impacts which would involve more work;  Initial analysis of the modelling outputs and WebTAG identifies that quantitative assessments are required for some elements;  Tight timescales for modelling work causing delay to commencement of social assessments;  Change of scope;  Change of guidance provided by WebTAG. 6.9 CHANGE LOG Table 6-1 Distributional Impacts Change Log VERSION SECTION CHANGE 1.0-Original

6.10 REFERENCES  CORMAC Solutions 2015 A30(T) St Austell Link Communications Strategy;  CORMAC Solutions 2015 A30(T) St Austell Link OAR  WebTAG

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7 DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS 7.1 PROPOSED MEOTHODOLOGY

7.1.1 A Distributional Impact (SDI) assessment will be carried out in line with the terminology set out in WebTAG Unit A4.2; the following impacts will be screened and if necessary, assessed:

 User Benefits  Noise  Air Quality  Accidents  Severance  Security  Accessibility  Personal Affordability

7.1.2 The geographic distribution of benefits will be plotted. Subject to this screening process, it is planned to disaggregate the distributional impact of non-work time savings only, since work savings are assumed to accrue to employers. This will be in accordance with WebTAG Unit A1.3 Appendix A and will plot origin zone trip benefits against income groupings (from Census), and against the Index of Multiple Deprivation, by car and bus modes.

APPRAISAL SPECIFICATION SUMMARY TABLE

7.1.3 The proposed approach detailed above is summarised in the Appraisal Specification Summary Table (ASST) in Appendix C.

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8 PUBLIC ACCOUNTS – COST TO BROAD TRANSPORT BUDGET 8.1 LEVEL OF DESIGN FEEDING INTO COSTS

8.1.1 For Outline Business Case, work will be at the initial Preliminary Design Stage. The individual schemes are designed in line with Design Manual for Road and Bridges (DMRB) standard or acceptable departures where applicable, with the level of controversy likely to be relatively low.

8.1.2 There has been:

 Extensive public consultation and feedback  informal stakeholder involvement  updated topographical survey data, including use of aerial drone surveys  updated stats information (focused on major constraints)  initial ground investigations  land ownership information to inform initial land costs assumptions  initial environmental investigations

8.1.3 The following information will not be available at this stage:

 detailed ground investigation  detailed environmental information  detailed archaeological information  agreed land costs 8.2 METHODOLOGY

8.2.1 Changes in real cost over time will be treated as per WebTAG.

8.3 INVESTMENT COSTS

8.3.1 Investment costs will be presented in current prices, but discounted to 2010 for appraisal purposes. As required by WebTAG, three costs will be presented:

 Base cost  Risk-adjusted cost (see below)  Risk and Optimism bias-adjusted costs (see below)

8.3.2 Investment costs will be categorised into:

 Construction  Land and property  Preparation and administration  Traffic-related maintenance costs

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8.4 OPERATING COSTS

8.4.1 Not applicable.

8.5 OPERATING, MAINTENANCE AND RENEWAL COSTS

8.5.1 It is likely that maintenance/renewal costs may be slightly different in ‘with scheme’ and ‘without scheme’ cases.

8.5.2 As per WebTAG maintenance cost profiles will be prepared for three forecast years, with total costs then profiled across the 60 year appraisal period.

8.6 TREATMENT OF RISK

8.6.1 A Quantified Risk Register will be produced listing risks likely to affect the delivery and operation of the scheme. This will be kept up-to-date throughout the scheme development. Options for a Risk Mitigation Plan will be identified.

8.6.2 Risks identified at this stage include:

 Unknown geology  Unknown ecological factors  Potential for archaeological finds  Possibility that some schemes may be in flood plains  Possibility of objections from landowners  Likelihood that costs may depend in part on phasing, which will in turn relate to other factors such as traffic management

8.6.3 Probabilities of each risk occurring will be estimated as per WebTAG. The probability distribution for the overall delivery cost will then be derived. The expected cost (the average of all possible costs, weighted by probability) will be presented as the risk-adjusted cost.

8.6.4 In the Outline Business Case, Optimism Bias will be applied at 44% in accordance with WebTAG. This, added to the risk adjusted cost, provides the cost adjusted for both risk and optimism bias.

8.6.5 All results derived above will be presented in the cost pro-forma. Relevant figures are then included in the Public Accounts Table and TEE Table.

8.7 CALCULATION OF INDIRECT TAX REVENUES

8.7.1 Indirect tax revenues are calculated within the economics assessment and will be taken directly from the TUBA outputs..

8.8 COMMUNICATION STRATEGY

8.8.1 A Communications Strategy document was produced by CORMAC Solutions as part of the PID. The document sets out how all responsible parties are responsible for providing accurate, appropriate and timely communication. The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring the project team, clients and contractors are kept up to date with project developments.

8.9 WORK PROGRAMME

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8.9.1 The Outline Business Case is scheduled to be submitted to the DfT by March 2017.

8.10 RISKS

8.10.1 Risk is discussed earlier in this section.

A30 to St Austell Link WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff CORMAC Project No 70024617 Confidential November 2016

Appendix A

OUTLINE PROGRAMME

Appendix B

A30 TO ST AUSTELL LINK ROAD – RESIDENTS NEWSLETTER NOVEMBER 2016

Appendix C

APPRAISAL SPECIFICATION SUMMARY TABLE

PROPOSED TYPE OF ASSESSMENT OUTPUT REFERENCE TO EVIDENCE AND ESTIMATED IMPACT IN LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY PROPORTIONATE (QUANTITATIVE/ IMPACTS SUB-IMPACTS RATIONALE IN SUPPORT OF OAR IN OAR APPRAISAL QUALITATIVE/MONETARY/ PROPOSED METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY DISTRIBUTION) TUBA analysis based on Business users & WebTAG Guidance and past Beneficial Low highw ay Quantitative / Monetary transport providers experience. assignment model results Reliability assessment based Journey WebTAG Guidance and past Reliability Beneficial Low Time reliability analysis Quantitative / Monetary Economy experience. using the highw ay model Regeneration and w ider WebTAG Guidance and past Regeneration Slight beneficial Medium Quantitative and Qualitative impacts assessment experience. Regeneration and w ider WebTAG Guidance and past Wider impacts Beneficial Medium Quantitative and Qualitative impacts assessment experience. Scoping study using flow s from highway WebTAG Guidance and past Environmental Noise Beneficial Low model to assess impacts Quantitative / Monetary experience. based on determined thresholds Scoping study using flow s from highway WebTAG Guidance and past Air Quality Slight beneficial Low model to assess impacts Quantitative experience. based on determined thresholds TUBA analysis based on WebTAG Guidance and past Greenhouse gases Slight beneficial Low highw ay Quantitative / Monetary experience. assignment model results Historic WebTAG Guidance and past Neutral Medium Scoping study Qualitative Environment experience. WebTAG Guidance and past Ecology Slight adverse Medium Scoping study Qualitative experience. Water WebTAG Guidance and past Slight adverse Medium Scoping study Qualitative Environment experience. TUBA analysis based on Commuting and highw ay WebTAG Guidance and past Social Beneficial Low Quantitative / Monetary other users assignment model experience. results. Reliability assessment Reliability impact based journey WebTAG Guidance and past on commuting and Beneficial Low time reliability analysis Quantitative / Monetary experience. other users using the highw ay model. WebTAG Guidance and past Physical Activity Slight beneficial Low Scoping study Qualitative experience. WebTAG Guidance and past Journey Quality Slight beneficial Low Scoping study Qualitative experience. COBALT analysis based on highway WebTAG Guidance and past Accidents Slight beneficial Low assignment model Quantitative / Monetary experience. results and accident statistics WebTAG Guidance and past Security Neutral Low n/a Qualitative experience. WebTAG Guidance and past Accessibility Neutral Low Scoping study Qualitative experience. WebTAG Guidance and past Affordability Neutral Low Scoping study Qualitative experience. WebTAG guidance, past Severance Slight beneficial Low Qualitative Appraisal Qualitative experience and DMRB 11.3.8 WebTAG Guidance and past Option Values Neutral Low n/a n/a experience. Full appraisal likely to be Distributional Slight beneficial Low required for User Benefits WebTAG Unit A4.2 Quantitative Impacts and Accidents TUBA analysis based on Cost to Broad WebTAG Guidance and past Public Accounts Slight beneficial Medium highw ay Quantitative / Monetary Transport Budget experience. assignment model results Indirect Tax TUBA analysis based on WebTAG Guidance and past Slight beneficial Medium highw ay Quantitative / Monetary Revenues assignment model results experience.