Gwadar Port Master Plan Arthur D
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Gwadar Port Master Plan Arthur D. Little (M) Sdn Bhd - Implications for Energy Sector Development Office Suite, 19-13-2 Level 13, UOA Centre 19 Jalan Pinang 50450 Kuala Lumpur 25-26 April 2006 Malaysia Outline Gwadar port master plan Gwadar port current situation Port development potential Industrial development potential Traffic forecasts Port zoning plan Development program 2006-2021 Investment opportunities 1 The Gwadar case – Master plan project In collaboration with our engineering partners, we have just completed the draft master-plan for the further development of Gwadar port Gwadar port – current situation One multi-purpose terminal, 600 m berthing space 5 multipurpose cranes, various yard equipment, 2 tugboats, 2 pilot boats, power, water Some building construction & dredging still on-going 2 Introduction The (draft) master plan document is structured in five main sections and thirteen chapters, plus various annexes including drawings Sections / Chapters of the Master Plan 1 2 3 4 5 Gwadar's Traffic Forecasts Physical Implementation Current Situation Development & Development Development Management Potential Strategies Plans Chapter 1: Chapter 4: Chapter 6: Chapter 9: Chapter 11: Introduction Assessment of Gwadar industrial Port land Operating Gwadar port development requirements and models, funding Chapter 2: development scenarios zoning plan (50 program & Gwadar’s macro potential years) financial analysis environment Chapter 7: Chapter 5: Port / cargo traffic Chapter 10: Chapter 12: Chapter 3: Assessment of forecasts 15 years physical Institutional and Gwadar current Gwadar industrial development organizational developments development Chapter 8: program development potential Port & industrial development Chapter 13: strategies and Marketing recommendations program Annexes contain details of various analyses and various lay-out drawings and concept drawings 3 Gwadar current developments – Development plans Gwadar city The city development Master Plan will help to transform Gwadar city into an economic focal point for Balochistan. Gwadar Master Plan 3 International 2 Special industrial zone airport Export 4 1 Residential processing area zone 5 Fishing jetty Gurab housing 6 scheme Oil refinery & 7 storage 5 Main access 8 Fishing jetty roads 10 Tourism Railway 9 1 Residential terminal area Efficient completion of all key projects will be critical to reinforce GoP’s commitment and facilitate Gwadar port development 4 Gwadar port development – Sources of port traffic Sources of traffic lie primarily in local industrial development and national ExIm, with transhipment becoming more important in the longer term Summary Gwadar potential Implications Transit trade with CARs has 1 Transit trade Focus efforts on other port little potential. Cargo from traffic contributors for now Xinjang may have potential Good potential for Gwadar, but Relying on transhipment to 2 Transhipment only in longer term, when ExIm realize port ambitions is not volumes become large advisable National ExIm offers sizable 3 National ExIm Stay competitive to capture and potential for Gwadar, due to support national ExIm traffic growing national demand Pro-actively develop Gwadar’s Local industrial Key lever to accelerate and 4 local industrial economy to development sustain rapid port development help drive port development 5 Gwadar port development – Role models for integrated development There are many relevant examples of recent and successful integrated port- industrial developments Role models • Port development since 1986 • Built on heavy industries: oil refining, petrochemicals, fertilizer, steel mill, Gwangyang LNG • Soon after combined with special industrial estates for foreign investors • Fully integrated port and industrial planning Rotterdam • Port develops industrial areas and pro-actively drives industrial investment • Very wide industrial base, but chemicals & petrochemicals dominate • Integrated industrial port currently under construction, TA from Rotterdam Sohar, Oman • Industrial investments secured: oil and gas supply, refinery, steel mill, fertilizer, poly-propylene, methanol, possibly aluminum and poly-ethylene • Rapid and visionary development Shenzhen, Dubai • Built on SEZ and FZ concepts: exceptional incentives & facilities & investment promotion • Very successful in rapidly attracting wide range of investments 6 Gwadar development potential – Gwadar comparative advantages Specific industries will leverage Gwadar’s specific set of comparative advantages Competitive advantages Industrial development opportunities Greenfield, low land cost Land intensive industrial complexes e.g. steel mill Low labour cost Labour intensive sectors e.g. textiles Proximity to oil & gas resources Oil & gas related processing and downstream industries e.g. petrochemicals Proximity to fast growing Gulf states Export industries that meet Gulf states’ import needs e.g. automotive, consumer goods Proximity to major shipping lanes Ship related industries e.g. ship repair Some agricultural resources, incl coastline Food processing, fish-processing Some mineral resources Minerals processing e.g. building materials, cement Short access channel, deep draft, short Industries that require large ExIm quantities and turnaround times corresponding ship sizes e.g. oil refining Tax-free status for new investments + incentives + port proximity Export-oriented manufacturing 7 Industrial development potential – Priority industries Eleven priority industries that can leverage on Gwadar’s competitiveness and contribute more strongly to its development have been identified High Iron, steel & Clothing fabricated metals Cement based products Food Processing Steel making Marine services Cement Oil Textiles Refining Building materials Non metallic Minerals (building Petrochemicals Marine services materials) Fertilizers Shipyard Automotive Automotive Food processing Textiles & clothing Competitive Alignment Oil refining Petrochemicals Priority Industries Fertilizer Other LNG industries Low Economic Attractiveness High Source: UNIDO, UN International Trade Centre, Pakistan Statistics Division, Arthur D. Little Analysis 8 Industrial development potential – Main conclusions The early establishment of pre-selected feasible industrial trigger projects will be critical to ensure a rapid development of Gwadar Summary Gwadar industrial development potential Major industry sectors that show a high potential for development in Gwadar are: - Petrochemicals – oil refining, petrochemicals, chemicals, LNG, gas-based industries - Heavy industries – large-scale manufacturing: steel, cement, fertiliser etc., energy- intensive industries - Manufacturing – textiles and garments, automotive, consumer goods, food-processing, assembly; export-oriented The following key projects show good commercial potential. Efforts should be directed towards attracting these industries quickly, as these can act as major triggers for further industrial development: - First oil refinery - LNG terminal (initially for imports) - First cement plant - First fertiliser plant (urea, ammonia, based on gas or coal) - First dockyard or shipyard - Steel mill - First car assembly plant 9 Port & cargo traffic forecasts – Approach For the bottom up approaches, a range of values was obtained by determining the port traffic under the five different industrial development scenarios. Industrial development scenarios Industrial development A Short term forecasts scenarios Bottom Up: Model port traffic from I all major cargo contributors Industrial powerhouse covering national ExIm, Gwadar industrial development, city II growth, transhipment and transit Heavy industries trade dominated Range of III Petrochemicals values dominated obtained B Long term forecasts. 50 years IV Manufacturing Bottom up: Model based on long dominated term growth rates and built up from results of the short term V bottom up forecast Base case 10 Gwadar in 2055 – National traffic forecast In 2055, Gwadar is forecasted to capture about one third of the national port traffic market, translating into a throughput volume of about 350 mln tons Preliminary National traffic demand forecast Port traffic (mln tons) 1100 Best case: 1125 1000 1st Port Worst case: 950 900 2nd Port 800 Gwadar 700 4th Port 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 Source: Pakistan Board of Statistics, Karachi Port, Port Qasim, Arthur D. Little analysis 11 Port & cargo traffic forecasts – Short term forecasts The model uses an overall port traffic growth rate of 7.5% at 2021, which decreases to 4.5% by 2055; this is slightly higher than national port growth. rates 2A Long term growth forecasts Annual Growth (%) Liquid bulk grows at 3% 12% Overall at Year 16 and Containers decreases to 2.5% by 2055 Dry bulk 10% General cargo General cargo grows at Liquid bulk 5% at Year 16 and decreases to 4.8% by 8% 2055 Dry bulk grows at 11% 6% at Year 16 and decreases to 5% by 2055 4% Containers grow at 11% at Year 16 and decreases to 5.5% by 2% 2055 Overall growth is 7.5% at Year 16 and 0% decreases to 4.5% by 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 2055 Source: Arthur D. Little analysis 12 Port & cargo traffic forecasts Gwadar’s port traffic is forecast to be between 42 – 65 mio tons in 15 years and 321 - 345 mio tons in 50 years. Port traffic forecast Chapter